Meir Yaish and Vered Kraus - Class Mobility in Israel 1970s-2010s

Class Mobility in Israel: 1970s-2010s Meir Yaish and Vered Kraus University of Haifa

Social Mobility: Theoretical Background :Economic Development

•

Economic Development – manifested in an upgrade of the occupational structure – – resulted in growing mobility rates (absolute mobility), and also in growing importance of education for occupational success – which then resulted in a weakening of the association between origins and destinations (greater .openness, fluidity)

:Inequality

•

:Migration

•

Economic inequality is associated with social closure: the walls between classes – .are higher in more unequal society then in less unequal Immigrants often change their class position in migration the process; they tend – to enter the host society at the bottom of the class hierarchy, pushing the native population upward. As a result, social mobility in migrant society should be .relatively high

Economic Development and Inequality in Israel

35000 40 38 30000 36 25000 34

Net Gini

32 20000 30 15000 28 26 Per-capita income (2010 USD) 10000 24 5000 22 0 20

Migration 2000000

1500000

Immigrants (N) 1000000

500000

0

Net Migration (5 yr. intervals)

?Social Mobility in Israel: what do we know Social mobility in Israel is high in a comparative perspective



The association between parental class and their children (mostly sons) is relatively  .weak

This association is stable over time



For women it is weakening 

Social mobility is basically similar across sub-populations For Mizrahi Jews slightly more fluid class structure (a disadvantage)  No effect of migration on social mobility 



: Findings from the first stage of this study Linking the 1972-83, 1983-95 and 1995-08 census data to create • . intergenerational mobility data into “first” class position : Findings support previous findings • Social mobility is relatively high – No changes over time – Women more mobile then men – :However The intergenerational class association amongst Arab men tend to – :increase

Mobility is less prevalent: closure  the emergent of a middle class •

:Current Objectives to further examine recent trends in social mobility in Israel, this  time by examining mobility into “mature” class position (from age 35 :appx.) ?Have there any trends I. What are the mobility patterns and trends of Israeli women II. Has the emergent of a Muslim middle class affected the Arabs III. mobility patterns and trends

The Data:

linking census data with administrative earnings data

Socio .Demographic info Education History Labor Force info Detailed income: father, mother

Registered Earnings

(w/children age 10-19)

R’s household

Census

Census

Parental household

Socio .Demographic info Education History Labor Force info Detailed income: R, Spouse and household

R Spous e Father Moth er

Census Data (4% of 1972 pop.)

Birth

Origins Household with Children age 10-19

1953-62

1972

0

15

Destinations Looking up children from parents household in 1972 Census, match on ID 1983 ‘84 ‘85 ‘86 ‘87 26

27 28 29 30

‘09 ‘10‘11 ’12 2013 52 53 54 55 56

Registered Data Earnings for: R, Spouse, Father and Mother

Origins

1953-62

D1

D2

15

26

38

56

1972

1983

1995

2013

Origins 15 1964-73

1983

D1 27

D2 40

45

1995

2008

2013

D1 28

33

2008

2013

Origins 15 1976-85

1995

Social Mobility Class Mobility

.Goldthorpe Class position as applied by Yaish (2000) to Israel –

When CBS changes its occupational classification (1972; « 1994) the class classification changes  much like SEI, .Status and prestige scores

G o ld th o r p e C la s s S c h e m a E m p lo y e rs

S e lf - e m p lo y e d

E m p lo y e e s

I n d u s tr y /s e r v ic e

A g r ic u ltu r e

I n d u s tr y /s e r v ic e

A g r ic u ltu r e

I /I V a

IV c

IV b

IV c

I n d u s tr y /s e r v ic e

A g r ic u ltu r e

S e r v ic e R e la tio n s h i p

I n te r m e d ia te

L a b o u r C o n tr a c t

L a b o u r C o n tr a c t

I /II

I I I a /V I

I I I b /V /V I Ia

V IIb

The Goldthorpe Class Schema

Full Version

Class Version 7   I+II

I II

Class Version 5  

Class Version 3  

 Service class  I+II+IIIa  White-collar workers

 

 IIIa Routine non-manual class

IIIa 



 



 Non manual workers

IIIb

 

IVa IVb IVc

 IVab

IVab

 

 Petty bourgeoisie

Petty bourgeoisie



 IVc+VIIb  Farm workers

IVc Farmers

V VI



Farm workers 

 V+VI

V+VI



 Skilled workers

Skilled workers

 

VIIa VIIb

IIIa+VIIa

IIIa+VIIa

 Manual workers

Unskilled workers

Unskilled workers



VIIb



?Why Class

Goldthorpe argues that his class represents individuals with – .distinct age specific earnings curves (among other things) .Class  good proxy for permanent income (much like SEI)

•

Men's Average Annual Earnings, by “first” Class 1983-95 intergenerational mobility data 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000

2013

VIIa+IIIb

2011

VI

2009

V

2007

2005

IVc+VIIb

2003

IIIa

2001

I+II

1999

1997

0

1995

2014 NIS (4 NIS=1 USD)

300,000

Average Annual Earnings (employees only), by “Mature” class position 1983-2008 intergenerational mobility data 200000 180000 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

I+II

27

IIIa

28

29

V+VI

30

31

32

VIIa+IIIb

33

34

VIIb

35

36

37

38

39

40

Men's Annual Earnings (2014 NIS), by Father's Class 1983-95 intergenerational mobility data 250000

200000

150000

100000

50000

0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 I+II

IIIa

IVab

IVc+VIIb

V

VI

VIIa+IIIb

Men's Average Annual Earnings, by Parental Income Deciles 200,000 1

150,000

2

100,000 50,000

9

10

2013

8

2011

7

2009

6

2007

5

2005

4

2003

3

2001

2

1999

1

1997

0

1995

2014 NIS (4 NIS=1 USD)

250,000

Analytic Strategy Changes in intergenerational class mobility of .1 Israeli aged 35-49, between 1995 and 2008 (fathers positions in 1972 and 1983, respectively), by gender and nationality Changes in intergenerational class mobility of .2 Israeli aged 35-49 to fathers of similar age range, between 1995 and 2008 (fathers positions in 1972 and 1983, respectively), by gender and nationality .Class mobility of Israel’s sub populations .3

Results The bottom line

Total Mobility Rates 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

TMR

TU

TD

TMR_RF

TU_RF

TD_RF

Relative Mobility (IG(class) association)

0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0

IG(class)

IG(class)_RF

Trends in IGE, IG(SEI) and IG(class) associations

0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0

IGE IGE_RF

IG(sei) IG(sei)_RF

IG(class) IG(class)_RF

Results In Greater Detail

Class Mobility Trends: Israeli Men Log-Linear Models testing changes over time in the intergenerational class associations between 72-95 and 83-08 files, Israeli Men aged 35-49 (N=12,837) Year UNIDIFF 1972 1.00 1983

Year

0.95

1972

UNIDIF F 1.00

1983

0.93

Δ Model G2 d.f.

P-value rG2 Ind. {OT} {DT} 1530.4 72 0.00 -CnSF {OT}{DT}{OD} 65.5 36 0.00 95.7 Multiplicative {OT}{DT}{T.OD} 64.7 35 0.00 95.8

12.3 2.4 2.4

Log-Linear Models testing changes over time in the intergenerational class associations between 72-95 and 83-08 files, Israeli Men and their fathers aged 35-49 (N=7,279) Δ Model G2 d.f.

P-value rG2 Ind. {OT} {DT} 879.0 72 0.00 -CnSF {OT}{DT}{OD} 54.5 36 0.02 93.8 Multiplicative {OT}{DT}{T.OD} 53.6 35 0.02 93.9

12.4 2.6 2.5

Class Mobility Trends: Israeli Women Log-Linear Models testing changes over time in the intergenerational class associations between 72-95 and 83-08 files, Israeli Women aged 35-49 (N=10,033) Year UNIDIFF 1972 1.00 1983

Year

1.00

1972

UNIDIF F 1.00

1983

0.89

Δ Model G2 d.f.

P-value rG2 Ind. {OT} {DT} 615.2 72 0.00 -CnSF {OT}{DT}{OD} 38.8 36 0.35 93.7 Multiplicative {OT}{DT}{T.OD} 38.8 35 0.30 93.7

8.7 1.6 1.6

Log-Linear Models testing changes over time in the intergenerational class associations between 72-95 and 83-08 files, Israeli Women and their fathers aged 35-49 (N=6,113) Δ Model G2 d.f.

P-value rG2 Ind. {OT} {DT} 421.5 72 0.00 -CnSF {OT}{DT}{OD} 28.7 36 0.80 93.2 Multiplicative {OT}{DT}{T.OD} 27.6 35 0.81 93.4

9.4 1.8 1.9

Class Mobility Trends: Jewish Men Log-Linear Models testing changes over time in the intergenerational class associations between 72-95 and 83-08 files, Jewish Men aged 35-49 (N=10,722) Year 1972

UNIDIF F 1.00

1983

0.84

Year 1972

UNIDIF F 1.00

1983

0.78

Δ Model G2 d.f.

P-value rG2 Ind. {OT} {DT} 1233.6 72 0.00 -CnSF {OT}{DT}{OD} 59.6 36 0.01 95.2 Multiplicative {OT}{DT}{T.OD} 50.8 35 0.04 95.9

12.1 2.5 2.1

Log-Linear Models testing changes over time in the intergenerational class associations between 72-95 and 83-08 files, Jewish Men and their fathers aged 3549 (N=5,914) Δ Model G2 d.f.

P-value rG2 Ind. {OT} {DT} 677.1 72 0.00 -CnSF {OT}{DT}{OD} 56.6 36 0.02 91.6 Multiplicative {OT}{DT}{T.OD} 47.7 35 0.07 93.0

11.9 3.2 2.4

Class Mobility Trends: Jewish Women Log-Linear Models testing changes over time in the intergenerational class associations between 72-95 and 83-08 files, Jewish Women aged 35-49 (N=9,413) Year 1972

UNIDIF F 1.00

1983

0.98

Δ Model G2 d.f.

P-value rG2 Ind. {OT} {DT} 557.4 72 0.00 -CnSF {OT}{DT}{OD} 36.3 36 0.45 93.5 Multiplicative {OT}{DT}{T.OD} 36.2 35 0.41 93.5

8.6 1.7 1.7

Log-Linear Models testing changes over time in the intergenerational class associations between 72-95 and 83-08 files, Jewish Women and their fathers aged 35-49 (N=5,689) Year UNIDIF F 1972 1.00 1983

0.85

Δ Model G2 d.f.

P-value rG2 Ind. {OT} {DT} 370.1 72 0.00 -CnSF {OT}{DT}{OD} 31.0 36 0.70 91.6 Multiplicative {OT}{DT}{T.OD} 29.2 35 0.74 92.1

9.1 2.0 1.9

Class Mobility Trends: Arab Men Log-Linear Models testing changes over time in the intergenerational class associations between 72-95 and 83-08 files, Arab Men aged 35-49 (N=2,106) Year 1972

UNIDIF F 1.00

1983

1.06

Year UNIDIF F 1972 1.00 1983

1.69

Δ Model G2 d.f.

P-value rG2 Ind. {OT} {DT} 178.1 72 0.00 -CnSF {OT}{DT}{OD} 32.7 36 0.75 81.6 Multiplicative {OT}{DT}{T.OD} 32.6 35 0.58 81.7

9.3 3.7 3.6

Log-Linear Models testing changes over time in the intergenerational class associations between 72-95 and 83-08 files, Arab Men and their fathers aged 35-49 (N=1,358) Δ Model G2 d.f.

P-value rG2 Ind. {OT} {DT} 149.2 72 0.00 -CnSF {OT}{DT}{OD} 38.5 36 0.36 74.2 Multiplicative {OT}{DT}{T.OD} 35.8 35 0.43 76.0

11.0 4.3 3.9

Class Mobility Trends: Arab Women Log-Linear Models testing changes over time in the intergenerational class associations between 72-95 and 83-08 files, Arab Women aged 35-49 (N=610) Year UNIDIF F 1972 1.00 1983

1.90

Year UNIDIF F 1972 1.00 1983

0.70

Δ Model G2 d.f.

P-value rG2 Ind. {OT} {DT} 116.3 72 0.00 -CnSF {OT}{DT}{OD} 27.5 36 0.85 76.4 Multiplicative {OT}{DT}{T.OD} 25.4 35 0.88 78.1

13.6 5.3 3.9

Log-Linear Models testing changes over time in the intergenerational class associations between 72-95 and 83-08 files, Arab Women and their fathers aged 3549 (N=416) Δ Model G2 d.f.

P-value rG2 Ind. {OT} {DT} 106.8 72 0.00 -CnSF {OT}{DT}{OD} 26.3 36 0.88 75.4 Multiplicative {OT}{DT}{T.OD} 25.5 35 0.88 76.1

17.2 6.3 7.2

Class Mobility: Sub-Populations in 1972-95 Log-Linear Models testing differences in the intergenerational class associations between Israel’s sub-populations in the 72-95 files, R’s age 35-49 (N=10,499) Year UNIDIF F J. Men 1.00 J. 0.75 Women Men A. 0.63 A. 0.87 Year UNIDIF Women F J. Men 1.00 J. 0.78 Women Men A. 0.52 A. 1.23 Women

Δ Model G2 d.f.

P-value rG2 Ind. {OG} {DG} 1021.0 144 0.00 -CmSF {OG}{DG}{OD} 141.4 108 0.02 86.1 Multiplicative {OG}{DG}{G.OD} 123.4 105 0.11 87.9

10.7 3.0 2.6

Log-Linear Models testing differences in the intergenerational class associations between Israel’s sub-populations in the 72-95 files, R and F age 35-49 (N=5,499) Δ Model G2 d.f.

P-value rG2 Ind. {OG} {DG} 625.3 144 0.00 -CmSF {OG}{DG}{OD} 127.4 108 0.10 79.6 Multiplicative {OG}{DG}{G.OD} 115.0 105 0.42 81.6

11.4 3.6 3.3

Class Mobility: Sub-Populations in 1983-08 Log-Linear Models testing differences in the intergenerational class associations between Israel’s sub-populations in the 83-08 files, R’s age 35-49 (N=12,352) Year UNIDIF F J. Men 1.00 J. 0.82 Women Men A. 1.03 A. 1.36 Year UNIDIF Women F J. Men 1.00 J. 0.86 Women Men A. 1.24 A. 1.53 Women

Δ Model G2 d.f.

P-value rG2 Ind. {OG} {DG} 1064.6 144 0.00 -CmSF {OG}{DG}{OD} 132.8 108 0.05 87.5 Multiplicative {OG}{DG}{G.OD} 122.1 105 0.12 88.5

10.2 2.7 2.6

Log-Linear Models testing differences in the intergenerational class associations between Israel’s sub-populations in the 83-08 files, R and F age 35-49 (N=7,878) Δ Model G2 d.f.

P-value rG2 Ind. {OG} {DG} 677.8 144 0.00 -CmSF {OG}{DG}{OD} 123.2 108 0.15 81.8 Multiplicative {OG}{DG}{G.OD} 115.4 105 0.23 83.0

10.3 3.1 2.9

Conclusions summary

Results suggests that intergenerational class mobility rates are no • . longer constant in Israel – as most previous studies have found For all Israeli sub populations studied, we find that TMR have • . decreased to some extent The end of a long era of constant intergenerational mobility also • . apparent when relative mobility rates were the focus of analysis

Here, however, we find that social fluidity has increased for both • Jewish men and women (i.e., greater equality of opportunity) and decreased for both Arab men and women (i.e., lesser equality of . opportunity) These trends amongst Jews cannot, of course, be related to the surge • in economic inequality in Israel. This being the case, we also reject this explanation for the Arabs. We argue that the trends towards closure amongst Arabs in Israel reflect the emergence of a Palestinian middle .class in Israel – documented elsewhere

Changes over time and between sub.populations in the IG(class) Associations 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1

Arab Women

Arab Men

Jewish Women 1972-95

1983-08

Jewish Men

0

Discussion

Increasing equality of opportunity over time cannot be explained by • . the surge in economic inequality in Israel This being the case, we also reject this explanation for the Arabs • We argue that the trends towards closure amongst Arabs in Israel • reflect the emergence of a Palestinian middle class in Israel – .documented elsewhere