Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
I U N I V E R S I T Y O F U TA H
In Par tnership with the Salt Lake Chamber
KEM C. GARDNER POLIC Y INSTITUTE
We are an honest broker of
INFORMED RESEARCH that guides
INFORMED DISCUSSIONS and leads to
INFORMED D E C I S I O N S™
January 2024
Dear friends, We call the contents of this report “visual intellection.” While not a commonly used word, intellection describes the process of using your mind to carefully consider a matter of importance. Said another way, it’s thinking well. We can all agree that the coming year needs leaders who think well. In 2024 we face tumultuous geopolitical conflicts, a presidential election year characterized by extreme division, a resilient but uncertain national economy, artificial intelligence risks, and many other serious challenges. When Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell artfully said, “We are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies," he captured not just an economic stance, but a broader global, national, and state outlook. Our “cloudy” future, as the saying goes, will not be a gift, but rather an achievement. Here in Utah, the skies are clearer. We have nation-leading economic outcomes, upward mobility, and social capital that help us as we grow and change. We are now a mid-sized state that has become a destination of choice for new residents. We enthusiastically look to the future and embrace a 2034 Olympic dream, even as we face serious challenges in the present with Great Salt Lake, housing affordability, chronic homelessness, mental health, and growth…just to name a few. Thinking well is easier said than done. In a world filled with performative politics, news as entertainment, and social media algorithms, many struggle to find accurate, authoritative, and independently produced data and information. You’ve come to the right place. The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute serves as an honest broker of informed research, that guides informed discussions, and leads to INFORMED DECISIONS™. We hope this ninth edition of Utah Informed will help you think well in 2024. Thanks for your interest,
Natalie Gochnour
Rachel Hayes
Derek Miller
Director, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Dean, David Eccles School of Business
President & CEO, Salt Lake Chamber
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
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Contents Current Affairs Words and phrases to know in 2024. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Winter Olympic and Paralympic competition venues, 2002-2034. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Utah components of population change, 2000-2020 and 2021-2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 People experiencing chronic homelessness in Utah, 2019-2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Federal deficit or surplus and net interest outlays as a share of GDP, 1940-2053. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Real private AI investment, historical and projected, 2013-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Rice Eccles Stadium capacity compared to select Utah county populations, 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . 12 NFL player origins per capita, 2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Global refugees, 1965-June 2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Utah Economy U.S. city average year-over inflation rates, 2016-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 U.S. consumer sentiment, real median weekly wage, and real consumer spending year-over percent change since 2019 Q4–2023 Q3. . . . . . . . . 17 Middle-class population as a share of total population, 1980-2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Net percentage of domestic banks tightening standards for commercial and industrial loans to small and large/middle-market firms, 1991-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
2
Percent change in U.S. labor force participation rate by age since January 2019, 2019-2023 . . . . . . 20 U.S. wage growth by age since 2019, 2019-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Job growth for all 50 states, 2000-2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Unemployed persons per job opening ratio rate by state, 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Public Finance Total federal debt as a share of U.S. GDP, 1966-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 State-imposed sales tax rates on groceries by state, 2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Median property taxes paid by county, 2017-2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Utah's state budget allocation process, 2023. . . . . . . 27
Real Estate and Construction Change in the number of new listings for sale by state between October 2019 and 2022 . . . . . . . 28 Price of a starter home in Utah, 2000-2023. . . . . . . . . 29 Share of existing mortgages with an interest rate at 4% or lower by state, 2023 Q2. . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Average home equity as a share of value for homes with a mortgage by state, 2023 Q2. . . . . . . 31 Median sales price of existing single-family homes by state, 1970-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Share of permitted housing units by type in Utah, 2010-2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
Median single-family mortgage payment compared to median single-family rent in Utah, 2010-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Median monthly sales price and new mortgage payment in Utah, 2020-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Architecture Billings Index, residential and commercial/industrial, U.S., 1999-2023 . . . . . . . . . . 36
Travel and Tourism Utah hotel room occupancy rate in annular eclipse pathway counties, second weekend in October, 2018-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Year-over change in Utah leisure and hospitality employment compared to 2019 baseline, 2020-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 County transient room tax revenue per household in Utah, 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Year-over change in hotel and short-term rental occupancy rates in Utah, 2022 Q4-2023 Q3. . . . . . 40 Utah snowfall and skier days, 2004 -2005 ski season through 2022-2023 ski season. . . . . . . . . . . 41 SLC International Airport seats per departure, 2014-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 Utah outdoor recreation-related taxable sales and year-over change, 2018-2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Change in national park visitation since 2019, April-October, 2022 and 2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Energy and Environment Utah's critical minerals by geographic location, 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Utah's energy production and consumption, 1960-2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 Utah energy consumption by source, 2011-2021. . . 47 Utah renewable energy consumption by source, 2011-2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 Uinta Basin waxy crude oil production, 2017-2023. . . 49 Residential electricity and natural gas prices in U.S. and Intermountain West, May 2023 . . . . . . . . . 50 Annual average Great Salt Lake elevation, 1903-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 Reservoir storage in the Great Salt Lake Basin, 1989-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
Health Real average annual growth in Utah’s individual and family income compared to health insurance costs, 2011-2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 Share of drug overdose deaths in Utah by substance, 2016-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 50th anniversary of the Rehabilitation Act. . . . . . . . . 55 Select mental health indicators among children and parents, 2020-2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
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Contents Select mental health indicators among adults, 2020-2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Uninsured rates by household poverty level in Utah, 2012 and 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 Cumulative percent change in Utah monthly medicaid enrollment, May 2023-September 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 Percent change in Utah's private sector health care employment compared to 10-year average before COVID-19 pandemic, 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
Education Change in student proficiency rates from 2019 to 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 Change in Utah K-12 enrollment, 2004-05 to 2034-35. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 Share of Utah students who were chronically absent, 2011-12 to 2022-23. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Number of education preparation program completers, 2011-12 to 2020-23. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 Median balance for student loan borrowers by state, 2022 Q4. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
Demographics Utah in-migrant place of birth, 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 Utah net migration, 2010-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 Total fertility rate, 1960-2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 Reasons for migrating to Utah, 2020-2060 projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 Utah in-migrant domestic origins, 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . 70 Utah and United States projected annual percentage population growth rates, 2025-2060. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 Percent of population age 65 or older by county, 2010 and 2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 Median age by county, 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 Salt Lake City foreign-born population by region of origin, 2017-2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 Population change for Salt Lake City, Utah, and select cities, July 2021-July 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . 75 Utah households by type, 2000-2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 Racial and ethnic minority population shares, 1990 and 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
Utah Informed The whole point. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
Editors: Jennifer Robinson and Natalie Roney
4
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
Words and phrases to know in 2024
n
Deepfake – An image or recording convincingly altered and manipulated to misrepresent someone as doing or saying something not actually done or said. “An image circulated of the President at Coachella, but it ended up being a deepfake.”
n
Deinfluencing – The practice of discouraging people from buying particular products, or of encouraging people to reduce their consumption of material goods, especially via social media. “I was going to buy the new iPhone, but I was deinfluenced by a person I follow on Instagram.”
n
n
n
Generative AI – Algorithms (such as ChatGPT) that can be used to create new content, including audio, code, images, text, simulations, and videos. “The university is having to update its cheating policies to include students’ use of generative AI to write papers.” Greenwash – The act or practice of making a product, policy, activity, etc. appear to be more environmentally friendly or less environmentally damaging than it really is. “A new report reveals that the company’s sustainability policies may just be greenwashing.” Heat dome – A weather phenomenon in which an area experiences stifling heat when a system of high pressure pushes very warm air downward and keeps it trapped as if in a bubble. “In August, 126 million people were under heat alerts due to a severe heat dome in the southern states.”
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
n
Large Language Model (LLM) – A type of machine learning algorithm trained on extremely large datasets of existing language and designed to generate new, naturalistic responses to prompts. “Large Language Models such as ChatGPT have become a contentious topic of conversation among writers afraid of being pushed out of their jobs and replaced by AI.”
n
Nepo baby – Referring to nepotism, a nepo baby is a person, especially in the entertainment industry, whose career is believed to be advanced by having famous parents. “I bet he only got the role because he’s a nepo baby; his acting was only so-so.”
n
Parasocial – A unidirectional relationship that a person imagines having with another person whom they do not actually know, such as a celebrity or a fictional character. “I feel like I know Taylor Swift personally, but she doesn’t know I exist; our relationship is completely parasocial.”
n
Rizz – Short for “charisma.” An ability to charm or woo a person. “She can win over anyone. She has a lot of rizz.”
n
Shift shock – A phenomenol feeling of discrepancy between the expectations of a new job and the reality in the company. A new job or employer is not what a new hire expected, with some being either disappointed or otherwise surprised. “One day into my new job and I am already experiencing shift shock. I always wanted to work at a bank, but it’s not what I expected.”
Current Affairs
5
Ready to welcome the world
The 2034 Winter Games in Salt Lake City-Utah will be the first WINTER Games that will not require building new venues. Winter Olympic and Paralympic competition venues, 2002-2034 Salt Lake 2002
Torino 2006
Vancouver 2010
Sochi 2014
Pyeong Chang 2018
Beijing 2022
SLC-UT 2034
Existing Facilities
58%
59%
33%
8%
40%
54%
92%
Temporary Construction
0%
6%
0%
0%
7%
15%
8%
New Construction
42%
35%
67%
92%
53%
31%
0%
Venue Type
Source: Salt Lake City-Utah Committee for the Games
6
Current Affairs
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
“ fraught Economic forecasting
is a
business.
complex, quickly changing set of nonlinear relationships among seemingly
The economy is a
non-rational
households, businesses, and governments. It is by geopolitical, technological, and environmental In forecasting, it is wise to remain
continually buffeted
shocks. humble.” - Mark Zandi, Moody's Analytics
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Current Affairs
7
Put out the welcome mat Utah components of population change, 2000-2020 and 2021-2023
2000-2020
2021-2023
34% 66%
59% 41%
Net migration
Natural increase
Sources: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute and Utah Population Committee
8
Current Affairs
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
How can we help? People experiencing chronic homelessness in Utah, 2019-2023
1,200
1,000
27% 1,004 Increase
800
792 688
600
400
642
512
200
0
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Note: The year 2021 is not comparable to other years due to data inconsisitencies caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. 10% Source: Utah Point in Time Count
Historical
DAVID 5%E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S
Projected Current Affairs
9
200
Is it in our interest? 0
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Federal deficit or surplus and net interest outlays as a share of GDP, 1940-2053
10% Historical
Projected
5%
0%
Total deficit or surplus less net interest outlays
-5%
Net interest outlays
-10%
Total deficit or surplus
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
1940
1948
1956
1964
1972
1980
1988
1996
2004
2012
2020
2028
2036
2044
2052
Note: Federal deficits less net interest outlay as a share of GDP in 2023 and 2053 equals roughly 3.4%. High interest rates and sustained deficits combined cause net outlays for interest to almost triple in relation to U.S. GDP. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Office of Management and Budget data
10
Current Affairs
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
The AI revolution Real private AI investment, historical and projected, 2013-2025
$180 Historical
Projected
$160 $140
Billions of 2021 USD
$120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 U.S.
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
World
Sources: Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence and Goldman Sachs Research
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Current Affairs
11
1.29
2.59
1.01– 2.62 1.64
0.17 1.10
A Utah fan am I
Rice Eccles Stadium capacity compared to select Utah county populations, 2023
Seating capacity of Rice Eccles Stadium at the University of Utah:
51,444
Total population of Wayne, Garfield, Kane, San Juan, Grand, and Emery counties:
50,881
Source: Utah Population Committee
12
Current Affairs
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
Homegrown in Utah NFL player origins per capita, 2023
0.41 0.34
0.00
0.95 0.67
0.87 0.40
0.75
0.69 0.64
0.75 0.83
0.70
0.53
0.80
1.12
0.69
1.39
0.77 0.63 0.81
0.12
0.23
0.82
0.96
0.27
0.44
1.01 1.14
0.98 0.53
1.46 2.24
1.29
0.54
1.22
VT 0.00 NH 0.09 MA 0.38 RI 0.22 CT 0.78 NJ 1.07 DE 0.87 MD 1.39
2.30
0.00 – 0.50
2.62
0.51–1.00
2.59
1.01– 2.62 1.64
0.17 1.10
Note: Origin refers to where a player went to high school. Source: Dr. Ted Goudge, Sport Geographer, Northwest Missouri State University
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Current Affairs
13
Put yourself in their shoes Global refugees, 1965-June 2023
35
30
25
Millions
20
15
10
5
2023
2021
2019
2017
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
0
Note: Refugees, as defined by the UNHCR, include "all persons outside their country of origin for reasons of feared persecution, conflict, generalized violence, or other circumstances that have seriously disturbed public order and who, as a result, require international protection." Source: United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
14
Current Affairs
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
SPEAK “ what’s written in your
HEART.” - U of U Impact Scholar Arthur Brooks advising Utah leaders
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Current Affairs
15
Coming down U.S. city average year-over inflation rates, 2016-2023
10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2%
Target inflation rate: 2%
1% 0%
2016
2017 All items
2018
2019
2020
All items less food and energy
2021 Child care
2022
2023
Housing
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
120
16
Utah Economy 100
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
Retail therapy U.S. consumer sentiment, real median weekly wage, and real consumer spending year-over percent change since 2019 Q4–2023 Q3
20%
10%
Real U.S. consumer spending Real U.S. median weekly wage
0%
-10%
-20%
U.S. consumer sentiment
-30%
-40%
-50%
2020
2021
2022
2023
35% Sources: University of Michigan, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
30%
Utah Economy
17
Hollowing out the middle Middle-class population as a share of total population, 1980-2020
51.4%
50.6% 48.3%
50.0% 46.6%
48.2% 46.3%
48.2% 46.1% 44.7%
1980
1990
2000 Utah
2010
2020
U.S.
Note: Middle-class population estimated by household size as the average of 50% to 150% of median household income and the 30th to 70th percentile of the ratio of household income to federal poverty guidelines. Economic conditions in Utah and the U.S. varied during these window years. Recessions occurred during parts of 1980, 1990, and 2021. Recovery from the Great Recession began in 2010. Utah and U.S. economic performance were relatively strong in 2000. These results are from survey data subject to uncertainty from sampling error. Census Bureau samples in both Utah and the U.S. included 5.0% of all households from 1980 to 2000 and 1.0% 100% of households in 2010 and 2021. Comparisons to 2020 sample data are not recommended due to uncharacteristic survey issues. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Integrated Public Use Microdata Series
18
80%Economy Utah
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
1980
1990
Don't bank on it 2000
Utah
2010
2020
U.S.
Net percentage of domestic banks tightening standards for commercial and industrial loans to small and large/middle-market firms, 1991-2023
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40% 1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
Large and middle-market firms
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
Small firms
Source: Board of Governor's of the Federal Reserve System
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Utah Economy
19
Teens at work Percent change in U.S. labor force participation rate by age since January 2019, 2019-2023
10% 16–19 5%
25–54
0%
20–24 55+
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
35% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
20
Utah Economy 30%
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
16–19for 2024 Utah Informed: Visual Intellection
-15%
-20%
2019
2020
Young money 2021
2022
2023
U.S. wage growth by age since 2019, 2019-2023
35% 16–19 30%
25%
25–54 20–24 55+
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Utah Economy
21
Utah’s elite economy Job growth for all 50 states, 2000-2023
20% Utah ranks #4: 5.1% in 2021 Utah expansion peak: 5.4%, Jun 2006
10%
Utah ranks #2: -0.7% in 2020 Utah ranks #3: 2.8% in 2019
0% Utah 2.9%, US 2.0%: June 2023
Utah recession-related trough: -1.5%, Dec 2001
-10%
Utah pandemic recession-related trough: -7.7%, Apr 2020
Utah Great Recession-related trough: -6.2%, Aug 2009 -20%
-30% 2000
2002
2004
2006
2008 Utah
2010
2012 U.S.
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
Other states
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget 4.50
22
Utah Economy 4.00
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
Unbalanced Unemployed persons per job opening ratio rate by state, 2022
0.72 0.33 0.62
0.43
0.28 0.38
0.39
0.41
0.33 0.44 0.78 0.63
0.57
0.43
0.63
0.43
0.36 0.34
0.67 0.40 0.45
0.56
0.37
0.47
0.58 0.50
0.50
0.38 0.50
0.43 0.47
0.43 0.54
0.56
0.74
0.63
VT 0.38 NH 0.37 MA 0.52 RI 0.47 CT 0.71 NJ 0.65 DE 0.58 MD 0.50 DC 0.40
0.40
0.39
0.50
0.47 0.47 0.60
0.28
0.78
Note: A value lower than one indicates more job openings than unemployed persons. Lower values indicate tighter labor market conditions. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
140%
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
120%
Utah Economy
23
0.47 0.47 0.60
0.28
Debt dilemma
0.78
Total federal debt as a share of U.S. GDP, 1966-2023
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0% 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Department of the Treasury
24
Public Finance
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
A penny for your pantry State-imposed sales tax rates on groceries by state, 2023
6.0%
4.5%
1.0%
1.75% 6.5%
4.5%
1.225% 4.0% .125% 7.0% 4.0%
4.0%
0.1%
7.0%
Note: Local governments may also impose a sales tax on groceries. Some states offer rebates or tax credits to compensate low-income households. Utah's 1.75% state-imposed sales tax on groceries will be removed if voters approve the 2024 ballot measure adjusting the constitutional earmark of income taxes (1.25% local tax remains). Source: Federation of Tax Administrators
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Public Finance
25
4.0%
The most hated tax
0.1%
7.0%
Median property taxes paid by county, 2017-2021
$2,229
Ada County, ID
Salt Lake County, UT
Los Angeles County CA
$2,365
$5,377 Kings County, NY
$4,675 Dallas County, TX
No Data
$3,850
$200
$10,000
Note: Missing values are due to small sample sizes in low-population counties. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017-2021 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates and Tax Foundation
26
Public Finance
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
1% 0%
1932
1939
1946
1953
Your vote matters
1960
1967
1974
1981
Corporate income tax
1988
1995
2002
2009
2016
2023
Individual income tax
Utah's state budget allocation process, 2023
Legislature imposes taxes and fees
1
Other Taxes and Fees
Income Tax
Sales Tax
C Legislature passes laws that channel revenue into different funds (or accounts)
2
Legislature annually authorizes spending from funds
3
Reg. Fees
Other Fees
C
Income Tax Fund
Public Education
Gas Tax
General Fund
Higher Education
Medicaid
Transportation Fund
Various Other Funds
Transportation Public Safety & Corrections
Everything Else
C Mandated by Utah Constitution
Note: A 2024 ballot measure will ask Utah’s voters whether or not to adjust the constitutional earmark of income taxes if certain education funding conditions remain in place. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Utah Governor's Office of Planning and Budget and Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst data
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Public Finance
27
Nevada Washington Tennessee Louisiana South Dakota Arkansas Alabama New Mexico Florida Texas Arizona Mississippi Oklahoma Hawaii Ohio Indiana Idaho West Virginia Kentucky North Carolina Utah Kansas Missouri Wyoming South Carolina Georgia Colorado Iowa United States Total Michigan Pennsylvania North Dakota Illinois Rhode Island Wisconsin Nebraska Maine Minnesota Virginia Vermont Maryland Connecticut California New Jersey New York Alaska Massachusetts District of Columbia Montana New Hampshire Oregon Delaware
0%
Housing inventory has long COVID
Sales and gross receipts taxes
Individual income tax
Property tax
Corporate income tax
Excise taxes & other
Change in the number of new listings for sale by state between October 2019 and 2022
-24.5% -20.4%
-17.2%
-2.1%
-29.7%
-24.4%
-31.1%
-19.7%
- 26.8%
-36.5% -26.1%
-27.0% -15.9%
-29.2%
-22.2%
-20.1%
-14.8%
-13.3%
-11.3% -24.8%
-21.2%
-25.5%
-16.2%
-11.7% - 4.7%
-16.0%
-17.4%
-14.6%
-0.9% -24.5% -16.7%
-15.1% 0.3%
VT -28.0% NH -25.6% MA -25.1% RI -23.2% CT -28.7% NJ -34.5% DE -38.7% MD -26.8% DC -10.5%
-11.7% -3.7%
-1.6%
-20.1%
-5.0% -9.9% -23.3% -2.0% -33.2%
0.3%
-38.7%
Source: Realtor.com
28
Real Estate and Construction
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
Out of reach Price of a starter home in Utah, 2000-2023
$500,000
$432,000
$450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
$0
Note: Starter home price is assumed at 80% of median sales price. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of UtahRealEstate.com data
68.5% DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
65.6%
66.9%
Real Estate and Construction 57.5
66.2% 66.3%
VT 58.8%
29
$100,000
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
2007
Utahns are locked in
$0
2018
$50,000
Share of existing mortgages with an interest rate at 4% or lower by state, 2023 Q2
68.5% 65.6%
57.5
66.2% 66.3%
66.9% 68.4%
65.6%
66.8%
68.5%
71.9%
64.2%
69.6%
54.4%
56.1%
62.9%
64.1%
60.7%
59.2% 59.1%
51.4%
58.9%
56.1% 57.6% 56.4%
48.8% 64.3% 58.8%
57.4%
56.9%
54.7% 51.7%
55.0%
53.3%
58.9%
64.9%
VT 58.8% NH 62.7% MA 65.9% RI 61.8% CT 59.5% NJ 60.1% DE 59.0% MD 62.3% DC 64.6%
54.9% 56.7%
52.4%
63.4% 55.1% 65.1%
48.8%
71.9%
Source: The Federal Housing Finance Agency
30
Real Estate and Construction
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
The equity safe Average home equity as a share of value for homes with a mortgage by state, 2023 Q2
54.5% 56.2%
55.3%
44.6% 49.5%
52.7% 55.8%
52.5%
51.7%
50.4%
51.3% 52.9%
52.0%
57.3%
52.8%
50.4%
50.5%
48.9% 47.1% 50.3%
49.8% 48.5%
49.3%
50.0% 47.4%
49.6%
48.0%
51.9%
52.6% 48.4%
50.4% 47.5%
50.8%
54.5%
51.2%
47.6%
VT 56.0% NH 54.6% MA 55.1% RI 52.3% CT 49.5% NJ 51.8% DE 49.2% MD 46.4% DC 50.4%
50.9%
46.9% 44.7%
44.4% 53.45 57.2%
44.4%
57.3%
Source: The$1,200 Federal Housing Finance Agency DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
$1,000
Real Estate and Construction
31
44.7% 44.4% 53.45 57.2%
Shocking! 44.4%
57.3%
Median sales price of existing single-family homes by state, 1970-2023
$1,200
$1,000
Hawaii California District of Columbia
Thousands of USD
$800
Massachussetts Colorado $600
Washington Oregon Utah
$400
West Virginia
$200
$0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Source: National Association of Realtors
32
Real Estate and Construction
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
A decade of density Share of permitted housing units by type in Utah, 2010-2022
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
Single family
30%
Condominium, townhome, twin home units Apartment units
20%
10%
0% 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
80%
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
D A V I D60% ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Real Estate and Construction
33
20%
10%
The high cost of owning
0% 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Median single-family mortgage payment compared to median single-family rent in Utah, 2010-2023
80%
60%
40%
20%
Owning premium
0%
Owning discount
-20%
-40%
-60%
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
-80%
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of RentRange and UtahRealEstate.com and FreddieMac data
34
Real Estate and Construction
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
659
500
0
2018
934
740
509
170 rates hold the reins Interest
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Median monthly sales price and new mortgage payment in Utah, 2020-2023
$600,000
$3,500
$500,000
$3,000
$2,500
$400,000
$2,000 $300,000 $1,500 $200,000 $1,000 $100,000
$500
$0 2020
2021 Median sales price
2022
2023
$0
Median monthly payment
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of UtahRealEstate.com and FreddieMac data
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Real Estate and Construction
35
Fewer billings, fewer buildings Architecture Billings Index, residential and commercial/industrial, U.S., 1999-2023
70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
Commercial & industrial
2014
2017
2020
2023
Residential
Note: The Architecture Billings Index is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms asking whether their billings increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the previous month. A score greater than 50 indicates a higher proportion of architecture firms reporting increases, while a score below 50 denotes a higher share reporting decreases in billings. The findings amount to a leading economic indicator that provides an approximately six month glimpse into the future of construction activity. The y-axis begins at 20 to better show fluctuations in the index. Source: The American Institute of Architects
20%
36
Real Estate and Construction
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 12.8%
$205.6
$105.8
Iron $130.2 Washington $248.3
$780.7 Garfield $1,529.7
San Juan $320.0
Kane $1,781.9
Eclipsing other years $1,969.01
$20.49
Utah hotel room occupancy rate in annular eclipse pathway counties, second weekend in October, 2018-2023
100% 90%
89.0%
80% 70% 60%
69.6%
76.0%
80.2%
77.6%
80.2% October 14, 2023 Annular Eclipse
50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Note: "Annular Ecliple Pathway Counties" include Beaver, Garfield, Juab, Millard, San Juan, Sevier, and Wayne Counties. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of STR, Inc. data
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Travel and Tourism
37
30 25 20
1999
2002
2005
Tourists went rural... 2008
2011
Commercial & industrial
2014
2017
2020
2023
Residential
Year-over change in Utah leisure and hospitality employment compared to 2019 baseline, 2020-2023
20%
12.8% 10%
11.3% 6.4% 4.2%
0.5% 0%
- 4.8% -10% - 10.8% - 13.6%
-20%
2020
2021
2022 Urban
2023 (Q1)
Rural
Note: This figure includes private full- and part-time employment; self-employed are not included. Urban Utah includes Davis, Salt Lake, Utah, and Weber counties and Rural Utah includes all other counties. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data
38
Travel and Tourism
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
...And their taxes did, too County transient room tax revenue per household in Utah, 2022
$36.1 Cache $1,701.6 Rich $30.2 Weber $21.3 Davis $20.5 Morgan $1,361.3 Dagget
Box Elder $33.6
Tooele $32.7
Salt Lake $63.3
Summit $1,309.5 Wasatch $362.4 Duchesne $25.3
Utah $33.5 Juab $58.1
Carbon $63.0 Sanpete $24.2
Millard $71.0
Sevier $106.5 Beaver $205.6 Iron $130.2 Washington $248.3 $20.49
Uintah $89.2
Piute $105.8
Emery $198.2
Grand $1,969.0
Wayne $780.7 Garfield $1,529.7
San Juan $320.0
Kane $1,781.9 $1,969.01
Note: Household data include 2021 ACS 5-year estimates. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau and Utah State Tax Commission data
100%
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
90%
Travel and Tourism
39
A saturated short-term rental market Year-over change in hotel and short-term rental occupancy rates in Utah, 2022 Q4-2023 Q3
2% 0.5%
0.2%
0%
-0.2% -1.1%
-2%
-3.3% -4%
-6% -6.5% -8%
-7.9% -9.0%
-10%
Q4 2022
Q1 2023 Hotel
Q2 2023
Q3 2023
Short-term rental
Note: Short term rentals include unique listings on Airbnb, VRBO, HomeAway, Booking, and TripAdvisor; rentals listed as "other" and subtypes listed as "shared room" have been omitted. 1,000 Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of STR, Inc. and Transparent data
40
900 and Tourism Travel 800
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
-8%
-7.9% -9.0%
Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!
-10%
Q4 2022
Q1 2023
Hotel
Q2 2023
Q3 2023
Short-term rental
Utah snowfall and skier days, 2004 -2005 ski season through 2022-2023 ski season
1,000 900
Inches of snow & skier days in 10,000s
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2004-2005
2007-2008
2010-2011 Snow in inches
2013-2014
2016-2017
2019-2020
2022-2023
Skier days (in 10,000s)
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Alta Ski Resort and Ski Utah data
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Travel and Tourism
41
Travel got better SLC International Airport seats per departure, 2014-2023
New SLC Phase 1
New SLC Phase 2
140 137 131
Number of seats per departure
120
100
111
113
2015
2016
116
120
120
120
2018
2019
2020
124
105
80
60
40
20
0
2014
2017
2021
2022
2023
Note: New SLC Phase 1 and 2 refer to airport renovation and expansion phases. New gates accomodate larger aircraft with higher seating capacity. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of SLC International Airport data
42
$2,500 Travel and Tourism
$2,304
$2,165
(+15.8%) Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute (-5.1%)
$1,981
20
0
2014
We're all outdoor enthusiasts now 2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Utah outdoor recreation-related taxable sales and year-over change, 2018-2022
$2,304
$2,500
$1,981 Millions of 2022 USD
$2,165 (-5.1%)
(+28.9%)
$2,000
$1,500
(+15.8%)
$1,479
$1,540 (+4.2%)
$1,000
$500
$0
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Sporting goods stores
RV dealers
Recreational goods rental
Sporting & rec goods & supplies
RV parks/campgrounds
Nature parks/similar instituations
Recreational vacation camps
Recreational vacation camps
Boat dealers
Source: Kem C. Gardner Institute Analysis of Utah State Tax Commission data
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Travel and Tourism
43
Did the Arches timed entry pilot cause declines? Change in national park visitation since 2019, April-October, 2022 and 2023
5% 1.3% 0%
-0.2%
-1.2% -3.3%
-5% -5.3%
-7.6% -10%
-9.8% -11.9%
-15% -16.0% -20%
-19.3%
-25%
2022 Arches
2023 Bryce
Canyonlands
Capitol Reef
Zion
Note: Arches National Park Timed Entry Pilot was in place from April to October in 2022 and 2023; the pilot will be back in place again from April to October, 2024. Source: Kem C. Gardner Institute analysis of National Park Service data
44
Magnesium Travel and Tourism Lithium
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
-25%
2022 Arches
Critical to the future Bryce Canyonlands Capitol Reef
2023 Zion
Utah's critical minerals by geographic location, 2022
Magnesium Lithium Platinum Palladium Tellurium Beryllium
Uranium-Vanadium
Lithium Uranium-Vanadium
Uranium-Vanadium
Note: Critical minerals, as defined by the U.S. Geological Survey, are minerals that are essential to the economy and whose supply may be disrupted. Uranium, while not currently designated as a critical mineral, plays a significant role in Utah's energy economy. Source: Utah Geological Survey
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Energy and Environment
45
Utah's current energy dependence Utah's energy production and consumption, 1960-2021
1,000
500
800
400
600
300
400
200
200
100
0
0
BTU (trillion)
600
-200 1960
1965
1970
Production
1975
1980
Consumption
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Net energy exporter
2010
2015
2020
Differential - BTU (trillion)
1,200
-100
Net energy importer
Sources: United 1,000 State Energy Information Administration and Utah Geological Survey
46
900 and Environment Energy
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
0
0
-200 1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Renewable: Big growth, but small share Production
Consumption
Net energy exporter
2020
-100
Net energy importer
Utah energy consumption by source, 2011-2021
1,000 900 800 700
BTU (trillion)
600 500 400 300 200 100 0
2012
2011 Coal
2013 Petroleum
2014
2015
2016
Natural gas
2017
2018
Renewable energy
2019
2020
2021
Fossil fuel total
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Energy and Environment
47
Always look on the bright side Utah renewable energy consumption by source, 2011-2021
80,000
70,000
60,000
BTU (billion)
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0 2011
2012
2013 Biomass
2014
2015
Geothermal
2016
2017
Hydropower
2018 Solar
2019
2020
2021
Wind
120Energy Data System Source: State
48
110 Energy and Environment 100
120 Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 109
10,000
0 2011
2012
2013 Biomass
2014
Got oil? 2015
Geothermal
2016
2017
2018
Hydropower
2019
Solar
2020
2021
Wind
Uinta Basin waxy crude oil production, 2017-2023
120 120
110 109
Barrels per day oil production (thousand)
100 90 87
80
87
86
79 70
71
60 50 40 30 20 10 0
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Source: Utah Division of Oil, Gas, and Mining
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Energy and Environment
49
What's your bill? Residential electricity and natural gas prices in U.S. and Intermountain West, May 2023
25
20
15
10
5
0 U.S. average
Utah
New Mexico
Residential electricity (¢ per kWh)
Nevada
Arizona
Idaho
Colorado
Residential natural gas ( $/1,000 cu. ft.)
4,212
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
50
4,210 Energy and Environment 4,208
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
5
0 U.S. average
Utah
A hemispheric challenge New Mexico
Nevada
Residential electricity (¢ per kWh)
Arizona
Idaho
Colorado
Residential natural gas ( $/1,000 cu. ft.)
Annual average Great Salt Lake elevation, 1903-2023
4,212 4,210 4,208 4,206 4,204
Elevation (feet)
4,202 4,200
Average elevation: 1903-present (4,199)
4,198 4,196 4,194 4,192 4,190 4,188 1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
North Arm
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
South Arm
Note: Average elevation in 2023 is calculated through October 1, 2023. Source: U.S. Geological Survey Historical Elevation at Saltair Boar Harbor and Saline, UT
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Energy and Environment
51
Thank you Mother Nature! Reservoir storage in the Great Salt Lake Basin, 1989-2023
3,400
Capacity
3,200 3,000
Recent high: July 2023
2,800 2,600 2,400
Storage (KAF)
2,200 1,606 KAF
2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400
Recent low: November 2022
1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
2017
2022
Note: KAF stands for thousand acre-feet. Source: Utah Division of Water Resources
EnergyDeductibles and Environment
ual
52
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 3.7% Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
800 600 400 200 0
1992
Rising health care costs
1997
2002
2007
2012
2017
2022
Individual
Real average annual growth in Utah’s individual and family income compared to health insurance costs, 2011-2021
Deductibles
3.7%
Premiums
2.7%
Income
1.1%
of Utahns worry about affording health insurance in the future.
Family
Deductibles
2.5%
Premiums
4.7%
Income
0%
69%
1.4%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Note: Income is median non-family and family income. Premiums and deductibles represent average employee contributions for private-sector employees enrolled in single and family coverage. Sources: Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data and Census Bureau, American Community Survey data 2011-2021
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Health
53
Changing substance use landscape Share of drug overdose deaths in Utah by substance, 2016-2023
60%
Share of drug overdose deaths
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2016
2017
2018
Prescription opioid
2019
2020
Methamphetamine
2021
2022
Heroin
Fentanyl
2023*
Note: Most poisoning deaths involve more than one substance; therefore, the share of deaths by substance in a given year will not sum to 100%. Data are available from January 1 through June 2023. Estimates are based on deaths that occurred in Utah, regardless of the decedent’s residence status. Data are obtained from the Utah Medical Examiner Database (UMED) based on data available for analysis on November 9 , 2023. Drug poisoning (overdose) deaths were defined as having an International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD–10-CM) underlying-cause-of-death code of X40–X44 (unintentional) or Y10–Y14 (undetermined intent). One limitation of the ICD–10 classification system is that, with few exceptions, ICD–10 codes reflect broad categories of drugs rather than specific drugs; therefore, the immediate cause of death variable (text field) on the death certificate was used to identify specific drugs in overdose deaths (e.g., fentanyl and methamphetamine). Counts are preliminary. It is possible that current pending deaths will be certified as drug overdoses in the future and the manner of death in currently registered cases may be amended as additional information about the death becomes available. Source: Analysis performed by Megan Broekemeier, Drug Overdose Prevention Research Coordinator, Utah Department of Health and Human Services. Data from the Utah Office of the Medical Examiner.
54
Health
Over
350,000
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
0%
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023*
50th anniversary of the Rehabilitation Act Prescription opioid
Methamphetamine
Heroin
Fentanyl
The Rehabilitation Act is the first federal legislation to address access and equity for people with disabilities and provide employment protections to people with disabilities.
Over
350,000
Utahns have a disability, or
10.6%
of the population.
Only
5 10 in
Utahns
with a disability are employed. Note: The Rehabilitation Act is the first federal legislation to address access and equity for people with disabilities and provide employment protections to people with disabilities. For purposes of these data, "disability" is defined as someone who said "yes" to one or more of the following questions: 1. Are you blind or do you have serious difficulty seeing, even when wearing glasses? 2. Because of a physical, mental, or emotional condition, do you have serious difficulty concentrating, remembering, or making decisions? 3. Do you have serious difficulty walking or climbing stairs? 4. Do you have difficulty dressing or bathing? 5. Because of a physical, mental, or emotional condition, do you have any difficulty doing errands alone such as visiting a doctor's office or shopping? 6. Are you deaf or do you have serious difficulty hearing? Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 1-Year American Community Survey Estimates
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Health
55
Alarm bells for children...
Children ages 12-17 years
Children ages 6-11 years
Parents of children under age 3
Select mental health indicators among children and parents, 2020-2021
12.6%
Mother reports fair/poor mental health
5.2%
Parent reports not coping very well with the daily demands of raising children
44.6% 31.8% 10.7%
Prevalence of current anxiety
7.1% 2.4%
Prevalence of current depression
1.7%
Children with a mental/behavioral condition who did not receive treatment or counseling
63.7% 54.3% 17.9%
Prevalence of current anxiety
14.5% 7.6%
Prevalence of current depression
8.4%
Children with a mental/behavioral condition who did not receive treatment or counseling
53.1% 41.9% 0%
10%
20%
30% Utah
40%
50%
60%
70%
U.S.
Note:The third column represents children reported by their parents to have been diagnosed by a health care provider with a mental/behavioral condition (depression, anxiety problem, or behavioral or conduct problems). Estimates for ages 3-5 years are suppressed due to large confidence intervals that may not be reliable. Estimates for 6-11 years and 12-17 years have a 95% confidence interval width exceeding 20 percentage points or 1.2 times the estimate and may not be reliable. Source: Child and Adolescent Health Measurement Initiative. 2020-2021 National Survey of Children’s Health (NSCH) data query. Data Resource Center for Child and Adolescent Health supported by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA), Maternal and Child Health Bureau (MCHB). 2018-2020 National Survey of Children’s Health NSCH Public-Use Data. From Prenatal-to-3 State Policy Roadmap. Retrieved 05/19/2023 from 40% www.childhealthdata.org
56
Health 35%
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: 34.1% Visual Intellection for 2024
Children a 12-17 ye
7.6%
Prevalence of current depression
8.4%
Children with a mental/behavioral condition who did not receive treatment or counseling
53.1%
...And adults, too 0%
10%
20%
30%
41.9% 40%
Utah
50%
60%
70%
U.S.
Select mental health indicators among adults, 2020-2021
40%
34.1%
35%
30%
25%
28.2% 25.3% 22.8%
20%
15%
10% 7.2%
6.3%
5.6% 5%
0%
Any mental illness
Serious mental illness Utah
4.9%
Serious thoughts Of suicide U.S.
Adult with any mental illness reporting unmet treatment needs
Sources: Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA), Center for Behavioral Health Statistics and Quality, National Survey on Drug Use and Health, 2021
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Health
57
More coverage Uninsured rates by household poverty level in Utah, 2012 and 2022
31.2%
Income as a share of federal poverty level
<100%
17.5%
26.1%
100%-199%
15.2%
11.5%
200%-399%
9.4%
5.5%
400%+
4.9%
15.4%
Total
9.0% 0%
5%
10%
15% 2012
20%
25%
30%
35%
2022
Note: ACS includes a 1% sample of the US population and allows for precise state-level estimates. The U.S. Census Bureau's poverty threshold for a family with two adults and one child was $23,556 in 2022. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) estimates based on the 2012-2022 American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates
0%
58 nt
Health
May-23
-3%
Jun-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Sep-23
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
15.4%
Total
9.0% 0%
Less coverage
5%
10%
15%
2012
20%
25%
30%
35%
2022
Cumulative percent change in Utah monthly medicaid enrollment, May 2023-September 2023
Cumulative percent change in Medicaid monthly enrollment
0%
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
-3% -5%
-9% -10%
-13% -15%
-20%
-16% -20%
Note: The COVID-19 Public Health Emergency required states to continue Medicaid coverage for all members even if their eligibility changed. The 2023 Consolidated Appropriations Act established April 1, 2023 as the end of the continuous enrollment requirement for Medicaid. On March 1, 2023, the Utah Department of Workforce Services began reviewing eligibility for all Medicaid cases as part of the "unwinding" process, which will continue until April 2024. Utah's Medicaid enrollment declined by 58,250 members from April to September 2023. A person is disenrolled if they no longer qualify for Medicaid services or updated eligibility information was not provided to Utah Medicaid by the due date. That said, starting in January 2024, Utah Medicaid will expand continuous coverage to postpartum women and their newborns for 12 months post-birth as well as an estimated 2,000 newly eligible non-citizen children through the Children Health Insurance Program (CHIP). Source: Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) analysis of state administrative data
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Health
59
Who stayed? Percent change in Utah's private sector health care employment compared to 10-year average before COVID-19 pandemic, 2022
35% 29.0%
30% 25%
22.8%
20% 15% 9.2%
2.3%
0%
-0.4%
-5%
-1.9%
-3.9%
2021-2022 percent change
General medical and surgical hospitals
Skilled nursing care facilities
Home health care services
Psychiatric and substance use disorder hospitals
Mental health practitioners
Mental health physicians
-5.0% Physicians
-10%
1.5%
Registered nurses
5%
Assisted living facilities
10%
10-year average annual percent change (before COVID-19 pandemic)
Note: The columns represent a one-year percent change in employment. The black line represents the 10-year average annual percent change in employment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. Registered nurse data are from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupation Employment and Wages Statistics.
60
0% Health -2%
English Language Arts
Mathematics Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Science Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
Regis n
General m and su hos
Assisted l fac
Skilled nu care fac
Home h care ser
Psychiatri substanc disorder hos
Mental h practiti
Mental h physi
Physi
2021-2022 percent change
10-year average annual percent change (before COVID-19 pandemic)
Pandemic learning loss
Change in student proficiency rates from 2019 to 2023
0%
English Language Arts
Mathematics
-2%
Science
-3.1%
-3.7% -4% -5.4% -6% -8%
-9.3% -10%
-10.9%
-12% -14% -15.8% -16% -18% All students
Economically disadvantaged students
Note: Economically disadvantaged students are measured as students qualifying for free or reduced-price lunch. Measured using RISE test scores grades 3-8 for English Language Arts and Mathematics and grades 4-8 for Science. Source: Kem C. Gardner Institute analysis of Utah State Board of Education data
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Education
61
20% 10% 0%
A turning point
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
Change in Utah K-12 enrollment, 2004-05 to 2034-35
20,000 Historical
Projected
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
2034-35
2033-34
2032-33
2031-32
2030-31
2029-30
2028-29
2027-28
2026-27
2025-26
2024-25
2022-23 2023-24
2021-22
2020-21
2019-20
2018-19
2017-18
2016-17
2015-16
2014-15
2013-14
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
2009-10
2008-09
2007-08
2006-07
2005-06
(10,000)
2004-05
(5,000)
Note: Enrollment projections calculated as the average enrollment share of the school-age population from 2020-2022 (94.5%). Sources: Utah State Board of Education and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Long-term Population Projections
62
Education
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
Bueller? Share of Utah students who were chronically absent, 2011-12 to 2022-23
25.2% 27.2%
30%
25%
20%
19.0%
14.3%
15% 11.9% 10.6%
12.2%
11.3%
11.9%
12.5%
12.9%
9.2%
10%
5%
0%
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20* 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Note: A student is considered chronically absent if they were absent for more than 10% of days enrolled. Source:3,500 Utah State Board of Education
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
3,000
2,786
3,138
3,115 Education
63
5%
0%
Be prepared
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20* 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Number of education preparation program completers, 2011-12 to 2020-23
3,500 3,138
3,115
2021-22
2022-23
3,000 2,786
2,693 2,452
2,500
2,563
2,673 2,403
2,365 2,133
2,340
2,047
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
Sources: Title II Higher Education Act National Teacher Preparation Reports and Utah State Board of Education
64
Education
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
The debt that was almost forgiven Median balance for student loan borrowers by state, 2022 Q4
$17,830 $17,530
$15,960
$20,500 $17,980 $15,500 $16,280 $17,350
$17,750
$17,390
$16,760 $16,750
$16,240
$19,810
$17,540
$17,710
$18,360
$17,880 $17,100
$19,820
$19,160
$19,990 $19,750 $19,550 $18,200 $18,060 $21,260 $19,360 $18,670 $21,020 $19,610 $20,620 $17,320
$16,570
$19,760 $18,660
$17,270
VT $19,220 NH $19,300 MA $19,230 RI $17,120 CT $19,750 NJ $19,550 DE $19,750 MD $22,260 DC $28,270
$22,310
$17,540 $17,210
$19,530 $17,790
$15,500
$28,270
Note: The U.S. Supreme Court struck down a debt relief plan in June 2023 that would have erased up to $10,000 in federal student loan debt for most borrowers and up to $20,000 for Pell Grant recipients. Source: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York
2.7%
Education
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
0.6%
0.8%
0.5%
VT 0.1%
65
$17,540 $17,210
$19,530 $17,790
Welcome home $15,500
$28,270
Utah in-migrant place of birth, 2021
2.7% 0.6% 0.8%
0.5%
4.0%
1.7%
0.3%
1.7% 15.9%
4.4%
2.4%
0.8%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2% 26.9%
1.5%
0.9%
0.5%
1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2%
0.4%
0.3% 0.4%
1.6% 1.0%
0.5% 0.0%
0.6% 0.1% 0.3%
3.4%
0.8%
VT 0.1% NH 0.3% MA 0.3% RI 0.3% CT 0.4% NJ 0.5% DE 0.3% MD 1.3% DC 0.9%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2% 1.4% 0.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2021 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates
66
Demographics
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
Hello, my new friend Utah net migration, 2010-2023
40,000
35,000
30,000
Net migration
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Source: 5.0Utah Population Committee
4.30
D A V4.5 ID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Demographics
67
10,000
5,000
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
Bye bye, baby 2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Total fertility rate, 1960-2021
5.0
4.30
4.5 4.0 3.5
2.68
3.0
1.92
2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5
Utah
U.S.
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
0.0
Replacement
Source: National Center for Health Statistics
68
Demographics
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
Jobs draw people Reasons for migrating to Utah, 2020-2060 projections
100
80
60
86%
83%
80%
77%
14%
17%
20%
23%
40
20
0
2020s
2030s
2040s
Retirement-related
Employment-related
2050s
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 2020-2060 Projections
5.3% Demographics 0.1%
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
1.1%
4.1%
0.5% 0.1%
VT 0.0%
69
20
0
23%
20%
17%
14%
Welcome, neighbors!
2020s
2030s
2040s
2050s
Retirement-related
Employment-related
Utah in-migrant domestic origins, 2021
5.3% 1.1%
0.1%
0.5% 0.1%
4.1% 6.6% 1.3%
1.2%
0.0%
3.8%
16.6%
4.6%
1.1%
0.3%
0.7%
0.5%
3.3%
2.4%
0.5%
1.7% 0.2% 0.4%
0.5%
0.1%
1.0% 0.1%
0.3%
1.3%
VT 0.0% NH 0.3% MA 2.0% RI 0.1% CT 0.5% NJ 0.5% DE 0.6% MD 0.54% DC 0.1%
0.5%
0.8% 0.3%
0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
2.0%
7.2% 0.3% 0.7% 3.0% 2.1%
Note: International out-migrants are not included in the data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2021 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, Integrated Public Use Microdata Series
70
Demographics
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
Quite the contrast Utah and United States projected annual percentage population growth rates, 2025-2060
2.0% 1.8%
Average Annual Rate of Change
1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Utah
United States
2050
2055
2060
Note: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute's Baseline Scenario and the Census Bureau's "middle" scenario presented. State ofC.Utah Sources: Kem Gardner Policy Institute 2020-2060 Projections (Utah series) and U.S. Census Bureau (United States series)
Dagget Piute D A V I D E CKane CLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Wayne Garfield
Demographics
71
0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
2025
Better with age?
2030
2035
2040
2045
Utah
United States
2050
2055
2060
Percent of population age 65 or older by county, 2010 and 2020
State of Utah Dagget Piute Kane Wayne Garfield Washington Carbon Grand Rich Emery Millard Sevier Sanpete San Juan Beaver Summit Iron Duchesne Box Elder Wasatch Juab Morgan Weber Uintah Salt Lake Davis Cache Tooele Utah 5%
10%
15%
20% 2010
25%
30%
2020
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Summary File 1 (SF1), 2020 Census Demographic and Housing Characteristics File (DHC), 2010
72
Demographics
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
Older, rural Utah Median age by county, 2020
26.3 33
38
32.9 33.6
31.4
47.6
40.8
32.9 31.4
35.3
33.3
25.9 30.7
31.5
U.S. median age:
38.8
38.6 33.7
36.1
38.3
40.5
36.3 34.4
44.7
28.9
47.3
Utah median age:
31.3
43.3 34.6
37.6
44.9
25.9
47.6
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2020 Census Demographic and Housing Characteristics File (DHC)
3%
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
13%
27%
Demographics
73
34.4
44.7
28.9
31.3
47.3 43.3 34.6
An international city
37.6
44.9
25.9
47.6
Salt Lake City foreign-born population by region of origin, 2017-2021
3%
13%
27%
Europe North America
Asia Africa Latin America
Oceania
47%
6%
4%
Note: Foreign-born Salt Lake City residents account for about 15% of the city's population and 17% of the city's labor force. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017-2021 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates
74
Demographics
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
Bucking the trend Population change for Salt Lake City, Utah, and select cities, July 2021-July 2022
Salt Lake City -0.9%
Springville
-0.9%
Kaysville
1.7%
Layton
-1.0% -1.2%
Riverton
-1.2%
Provo
-1.3%
Draper
-1.3%
Roy
State average
1.2%
Cottonwood Heights
-1.4%
West Valley City
-1.7%
Holladay
-1.8%
Millcreek
-1.9%
Bountiful
-2.1%
Sandy
-2.2% -2.3%
Orem
-2.3%
Taylorsville
Note: This chart draws from Bureau of the Census estimates of cities or towns with populations of 30,000 or more. The Utah Population Committee estimates differ at the state level and are not available at the subcounty level. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2022 Population Estimates
Married couples
Married couples
D A V I D E C C L E Swithout S C H Ochildren O L O F B Uwith S I Nchildren ESS
Single parents with children
Other family
Nonfamily households Demographics
75
Bountiful
-2.1%
Sandy
-2.2%
Orem
-2.3%
Who's home?
Taylorsville
-2.3%
Utah households by type, 2000-2020
2000 2010 2020
Married couples without children
0%
Married couples with children
30.3%
28.1%
29.3%
31.7%
26.6%
10%
Single parents with children
Other family
7.6%
20%
30%
40%
7.7%
7.8%
36.6%
Nonfamily households
6.4%
8.9%
50%
60%
26.4%
24.8%
4.3%
70%
23.7%
80%
90%
100%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2020 Census Demographic and Housing Characteristics File (DHC)
76
Demographics
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
More multicultural Racial and ethnic minority population shares, 1990 and 2022
1990
2022
9.5%
Minority population
23.3%
Non-hispanic white population
Source: U.S. Census Bureau (1990 Decennial Census; 2020 U.S. Census Bureau Population Division)
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Demographics
77
Probability of making informed decisions
TM
The whole point
Accurate data and information
78
Utah Informed
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024
K E M C . G A R D N E R P O L I C Y I N S T I T U T E S TA F F A N D A D V I S O R S Leadership Team
Staff
Natalie Gochnour, Associate Dean and Director Jennifer Robinson, Chief of Staff Mallory Bateman, Director of Demographic Research Phil Dean, Chief Economist and Senior Research Fellow Shelley Kruger, Accounting and Finance Manager Colleen Larson, Administrative and Events Manager Nate Lloyd, Director of Economic Research Dianne Meppen, Director of Community Research Laura Summers, Director of Industry Research Nicholas Thiriot, Communications Director James A. Wood, Ivory-Boyer Senior Fellow
Eric Albers, Public Policy Analyst Samantha Ball, Senior Research Associate Parker Banta, Public Policy Analyst Melanie Beagley, Public Policy Analyst Andrea Thomas Brandley, Senior Education Analyst Preston Brightwell, Dignity Index Field Director Kara Ann Byrne, Senior Research Associate Mike Christensen, Scholar-in-Residence Nate Christensen, Research Economist Dejan Eskic, Senior Research Fellow and Scholar Murphy Georger, Communications Specialist Emily Harris, Senior Demographer Michael T. Hogue, Senior Research Statistician Mike Hollingshaus, Senior Demographer Thomas Holst, Senior Energy Analyst Madeleine Jones, Dignity Index Field Director Jennifer Leaver, Senior Tourism Analyst Levi Pace, Senior Research Economist Praopan Pratoomchat, Senior Research Economist Heidi Prior, Public Policy Analyst Natalie Roney, Research Economist Shannon Simonsen, Research Coordinator Paul Springer, Senior Graphic Designer
Faculty Advisors Matt Burbank, College of Social and Behavioral Science Elena Patel, David Eccles School of Business Nathan Seegert, David Eccles School of Business
Senior Advisors Jonathan Ball, Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst Silvia Castro, Suazo Business Center Gary Cornia, Marriott School of Business Emma Houston, University of Utah Beth Jarosz, Population Reference Bureau Darin Mellott, CBRE Pamela S. Perlich, Community-at-Large Chris Redgrave, Community-at-Large Juliette Tennert, Community-at-Large
Partners in the Community
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Advisory Board
The following individuals and entities help support the research mission of the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.
Conveners Michael O. Leavitt Mitt Romney
Legacy Partners The Gardner Company Christian and Marie Gardner Family Intermountain Health Clark and Christine Ivory Foundation KSL and Deseret News Larry H. & Gail Miller Family Foundation Mountain America Credit Union Salt Lake City Corporation Salt Lake County University of Utah Health Utah Governor’s Office of Economic Opportunity WCF Insurance Zions Bank
Board Scott Anderson, Co-Chair Gail Miller, Co-Chair Doug Anderson Deborah Bayle Roger Boyer Michelle Camacho Sophia M. DiCaro Cameron Diehl Lisa Eccles Spencer P. Eccles Christian Gardner
Executive Partners The Boyer Company Clyde Companies Sustaining Partners Dominion Energy Salt Lake Chamber Staker Parson Materials and Construction Wells Fargo
Kem C. Gardner Kimberly Gardner Natalie Gochnour Brandy Grace Jeremy Hafen Rachel Hayes Clark Ivory Mike S. Leavitt Derek Miller Ann Millner Sterling Nielsen Jason Perry Ray Pickup Gary B. Porter Taylor Randall Jill Remington Love
Brad Rencher Josh Romney Charles W. Sorenson James Lee Sorenson Vicki Varela Ex Officio (invited) Governor Spencer Cox Speaker Mike Schultz Senate President Stuart Adams Representative Angela Romero Senator Luz Escamilla Mayor Jenny Wilson Mayor Erin Mendenhall
Salt Lake Chamber Board of Directors Derek B. Miller, President & CEO Gary W. Hoogeveen, Chair Nathan R. Callister, Vice Chair Allison Behjani Judd Cook Amanda Covington Marlise Fisher Nate Foster
Darla Gill Natalie Gochnour Jeremy Hafen Kay Hall Rob Hitchcock Clark Ivory Matt Lyon Dr. Donna Milavetz
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
I
Thomas S. Monson Center 411 E. South Temple Street Salt Lake City, UT 84111 801-585-5618 gardner.utah.edu
I
I
DAV I D E CC L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S UNIVERSITY OF UTAH
Sterling Nielsen David Petersen Gary B. Porter Pres. Taylor Randall Susan Robel Ryan Starks Linda Wardell