Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
I
U N I V E R S I T Y O F U TA H
In Par tnership with the Salt Lake Chamber
KEM C. GARDNER POLIC Y INSTITUTE
We are an honest broker of
INFORMED RESEARCH that guides
INFORMED DISCUSSIONS and leads to
INFORMED D E C I S I O N Sâ„¢
January 2021
Dear friends,
“
Y
ou may not be interested in the virus, but the virus is interested in you.” This modified Leo Tolstoy quote summarizes much of 2020 and the start of 2021. COVID-19 came seemingly from out of nowhere and impacted every facet of our lives, livelihoods, and lifestyles.
Through all of the struggle, disruption, and pain we’ve been taught many lessons. Among others we’ve learned… n Pandemics wreak havoc on society, leaving a trail of commotion and misery in their wake. n COVID-19 hurts some people, industries, and areas more than others. n Free societies like ours–notwithstanding all of the benefits–struggle to contain a contagious pathogen. n People and businesses innovate and adapt to meet serious challenges. Even better, they reach out and help one another. n Well diversified economies like Utah’s fare better when economic hardship strikes.
n When you focus on one problem you lose perspective. Pandemics demand a balanced response. n Modern medicine makes miracles happen. n And, health care and other frontline workers are today’s heroes in every sense of the word. This 2021 edition of Utah Informed captures these and other lessons with the hope that the information provided will help us put this historic pandemic behind us. We can emerge stronger and better than before. The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute serves as an honest broker of informed research, that guides informed discussions, and leads to INFORMED DECISIONS™.
Thanks for your interest,
Natalie Gochnour
Taylor Randall
Derek Miller
Director, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Dean, David Eccles School of Business
President & CEO, Salt Lake Chamber
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
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Contents Current Affairs Words and phrases to know in 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Top Google searches in United States, 2020. . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Business cycles of the world. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 COVID-19 cases per 1,000,000 population by select country. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 University of Utah Health quick facts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Year-over movie theater ticket sales, 1996–2020. . . . . . 12 Voter turnout in Utah, 2000–2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Voter turnout by county, 2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Potential need for early childhood mental health services in Utah. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Utah Economy Major central bank balance sheets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Jobs ranked by 2019 average weekly earnings. . . . . . . . 17 U.S. and Utah indicies of consumer sentiment, 2020. . 18 Utah CEOutlook confidence index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 State-level social capital index, 2018. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Utah non-mortgage household debt by type, 2003–2019. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Industrial bank assets, 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Utah RV sales. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Distribution of jobs and population in Utah, 2020 . . . . 24 Utah’s economic regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 State-level Hachman Index, 2019. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
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County-level Hachman Index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Utah’s universities total headcount by race/ethnicity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Rainy day fund balances as a percent of general fund expenditures, 2019. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Year-over change in nonfarm employment. . . . . . . . . . . 31 Year-over change in nonfarm employment in Utah’s counties. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Federal financial assistance to Utah businesses during the pandemic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio, 1948–2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 State coincident indexes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Child care need and gaps in Utah before COVID-19. . . 36 United Way of Salt Lake 211 calls . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Utah student outcomes based on economic status, 2018. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Public Finance CARES Act allocations by state as a share of estimated 2020 GDP. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Utah taxable retail sales. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 Utah general obligation debt relative to constitutional debt limit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Utah’s top 10 trading partners and exports, 2020. . . . . 42 U.S. and Utah revenue sources, 2018. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
Real Estate and Construction Home sales and listings in Utah. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 Home price growth in Utah, 2019–2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Annual increase in households and housing units in Utah/cumulative shortage. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Change in FHFA state-level house price index . . . . . . . . 48 Top 25 metro areas ranked by median sales price of single-family homes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Gap of affordable and available rental units for renters at 0–50% of area median income in Utah. . . 50 Cumulative permitted commercial construction. . . . . . 51
Travel and Tourism Year-over seated diners in U.S. and Utah. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 Leisure and hospitality taxable sales, 2019–2020 . . . . . 53 Utah leisure and hospitality employment, 2019–2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 Year-over change in travel-related spending and SLC International Airport passengers, 2019–2020. . . . . . . 55 Year-over change in Utah park visitation, 2019–2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 Year-over change in hotel occupancy rates, Springdale vs. downtown Salt Lake City, 2019–2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Energy and Environment Fuel mix of electric power generation in Utah, 2020. . . . 58 Rotary drilling rig count in Utah, 2010–2020. . . . . . . . . . 59 West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices, 2020. . . . . . . . 60 Year-over change in U.S. petroleum consumption, 2019–2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
Health COVID-19 cases per 1,000,000 population by state. . . . 62 Cumulative COVID-19 case-fatality rates in Utah vs. U.S.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Utah COVID-19 hospitalization rate per 1,000 cases and mortality rate per 100,000 population by race and ethnicity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 Share of adults who report anxiety disorder symptoms in Utah vs. U.S., 2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 Utah telehealth visits by type. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 Utah childhood vaccinations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 Public health funding per capita by state, 2019. . . . . . . 68
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Contents Demographics Multigenerational households, 2014–2018. . . . . . . . . . . 69 Current Utah residents who lived in a different western state one year ago, 2019. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 Place of birth for Utah residents, 2019. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 Seasonal births and deaths indexes for Utah and six largest counties, 2001–2017. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 Natural increase in Salt Lake County and Utah County, 2010–2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 Net migration as a share of population change, 2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 Utah commuting data, 2018. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 COVID-19 Telework: Top-10 states. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 Top-10 self-response rates by state for 2020 Census. . . 77
Utah Informed The whole point. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
Editor-in-Chief: Jennifer Robinson
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Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
Words and phrases to know in 2021
n Contactless payment - a secure method for consumers to purchase products or services by tapping or waving their credit or debit card above the payment reader. Many businesses are offering contactless payment to reduce touchpoints during a customer's shopping experience.
n Policy stimulus - using government policies, including government spending and tax reductions, to boost economic activity. Unable to use traditional remedies like monetary or fiscal policy stimulus, policymakers may consider automatic fiscal stabilizers.
n Currency volatility - a situation in which the value of a country's currency changes suddenly and often. Floating exchange rates have not resulted in currency volatility, as feared.
n Quranteens & coronababies - those who are currently teenagers during the pandemic or babies conceived or born during the pandemic. Social scientists wonder what the long-term effects will be on quaranteens and coronababies.
n Doomscrolling - the tendency to continue to surf or scroll through bad news, even though the news is saddening, disheartening, or depressing. If you are doomscrolling, it may be time to take a step back and ask yourself what you really need to know. n Ecoanxiety - a specific kind of anxiety caused by a dread of environmental perils, especially climate change. The key to addressing ecoanxiety at any age is losing that feeling of paralysis in the face of the problem's magnitude. n Hybrid workplace - a company offering a permanent desk at an office, a work-at-home option, or some combination of the two. Hybrid workplace is a model of flexibility, adaptability, and shared ownership between employers and employees. n Infodemic - an excessive amount of information about a problem, including misinformation, which makes it difficult to identify a solution. We're not just fighting an epidemic; we're fighting an infodemic. n Malarkey - insincere or foolish talk; bunkum. He thinks that everything politicians say is a bunch of malarkey.
n Slowbalisation - continued integration of the global economy via trade, financial and other flows albeit at a significantly slower pace. We are now in an era of slowbalisation, or peak globalisation, with global trade slowing down. n Social Distancing - the practice of maintaining a greater than usual physical distance from other people during the outbreak of a contagious disease in order to minimize exposure and reduce transmission of infection. Under a new social distancing strategy, handshaking could be discouraged, with other, less tactile forms of greeting taking its place. n TikToker - a person who regularly shares or appears in videos on TikTok, a social media platform. The first TikToker to reach 100 million followers is just 16 years old. n WFH - an employee is working from their house, apartment, or place of residence, rather than working from the office. Oftentimes your daily attire includes professional on top, pajamas on bottom. By altering attitudes toward WFH, COVID-19 may have forever changed the way we work.
n Monolith - a free-standing column, 10-feet tall, made of stainless steel, first one was embedded into the rock found in the southern Utah desert. Fox 13 reports that the monolith is believed by many to be a work of abstract art.
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Current Affairs
5
The year we learned to make masks Top Google searches in United States, 2020
Searches
News
People
1. Election results 2. Coronavirus 3. Kobe Bryant 4. Coronavirus update 5. Coronavirus symptoms 6. Zoom 7. Who is winning the election 8. Naya Rivera 9. Chadwick Boseman 10. PlayStation 5
1. Election results 2. Coronavirus 3. Stimulus checks 4. Unemployment 5. Iran 6. Hurricane Laura 7. Super Tuesday 8. Stock market 9. Murder hornet 10. Australia fires
1. Joe Biden 2. Kim Jong Un 3. Kamala Harris 4. Jacob Blake 5. Ryan Newman 6. Tom Hanks 7. Shakira 8. Tom Brady 9. Kanye West 10. Vanessa Bryant
How to make‌
Why‌
1. How to make hand sanitizer 2. How to make a face mask with fabric 3. How to make whipped coffee 4. How to make a mask with a bandana 5. How to make a mask without sewing 6. How to make cloud bread 7. How to make Facebook avatar 8. How to make Bitmoji classroom 9. How to make disinfectant wipes 10. How to make a live wallpaper
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
Why were chainsaws invented Why is there a coin shortage Why was George Floyd arrested Why is Nevada taking so long Why is TikTok getting banned Why did Kobe have 2 numbers Why is everyone buying toilet paper Why is it called COVID-19 Why is it called Juneteenth Why is Australia on fire
Source: Google Trends
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Current Affairs
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
school “high athletes We
all need to start acting like .
They
have something they
care about
and they are
protecting
their ability to keep playing.
So
find that
you care about as much as these athletes
thing that
�
care about football, cheer, and drill. - Dr. Angela Dunn, Utah State Epidemiologist
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Current Affairs
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As the world turns Business cycles of the world December 2, 2020
n Recovery
n Expansion
n At Risk
n Recession
Source: Moody’s Analytics
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Current Affairs
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
Not where we want to be COVID-19 cases per 1,000,000 population by select country December 1, 2020 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000
Andorra Montenegro Luxembourg Bahrain Belgium Czech Republic United States Israel Panama Switzerland Spain France Austria Argentina Brazil Portugal Italy Poland Colombia Sweden United Kingdom Russia Ireland Denmark Iraq Albania Germany Greece Saudi Arabia Canada Mexico India Norway Finland Pakistan Japan Egypt Australia South Korea New Zealand China
0.0
Note: As of December 1, 2020, the U.S. had 13.7 million COVID-19 cases. The country with the next highest number of cases, India, had 9.5 million. Source: Johns Hopkins University (JHU) Coronavirus Resource Center
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Current Affairs
9
Health care heroes: working together to combat COVID-19 University of Utah Health quick facts As of December 23, 2020
346,880 1,230 COVID-19 tests performed
COVID-19 admits
10,860 COVID-19 hospital patient days Novel research projects: 56 campus-wide research projects funded by the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health
Peer reviewed COVID-19 journal publications: Over 60 by University of Utah Health investigators
Testing: ARUP Laboratories is one of the four largest reference laboratories in the nation
Volunteerism: ProjectProtect mobilized more than 57,500 volunteers to sew nearly six million masks in six weeks for health care workers
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Current Affairs
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
“
The
coronavirus pandemic has
challenged us in new ways. It’s challenged us medically and scientifically. It’s
also challenged us to recognize how
interconnected our lives really are
–
and that living
healthy requires that we work
”
together - Michael L. Good, MD CEO, University of Utah Health Dean, University of Utah School of Medicine Lorris Betz Senior Vice President for Health Sciences
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
.
Current Affairs
11
Netflix and chill Year-over movie theater ticket sales, 1996–2020
1,600
1,400
Tickets Sold (millions)
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Source: The Numbers, Where Data and the Movie Business Meet, Domestic Movie Theatrical Market Summary 1995 to 2020
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Current Affairs
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
Turnout tsunami
2000
Presidential
2002
Midterm
2004
Presidential
2006
Midterm
2008
Presidential
2010
Midterm
2012
Presidential
2014
Midterm
2016
Presidential
2018
Midterm
2020
Voter turnout in Utah, 2000–2020
Presidential 0
500,000 Votes Cast
1,000,000
Voting Eligible Population
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Registered Voters
Source: Utah State Elections; Office of the Utah Lieutenant Governor
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Current Affairs
13
Get out the vote! Voter turnout by county, 2020 Cache 92.28% Rich 92.34% Weber 89.32% Davis 90.51% Morgan 90.20% Daggett 90.01%
Box Elder 91.69%
Salt Lake 90.11%
Tooele 87.91%
Summit 92.44% Wasatch 88.88%
Utah 89.18% Juab 84.73%
Uintah 91.76%
Carbon 92.26% Sanpete 91.53%
Millard 90.92%
Sevier 90.53% Beaver 89.38%
Duchesne 86.60%
Piute 87.59%
Iron 92.83%
Washington 91.41% 84.73%
Emery 88.16%
Grand 87.61%
Wayne 93.11% Garfield 87.36%
San Juan 89.41%
Kane 85.12% 93.11%
Source: Utah State Elections; Office of the Utah Lieutenant Governor
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Current Affairs
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
For our kids Potential need for early childhood mental health services in Utah
10%–20%
Based on a range of estimates from national studies,
10-20% of Utah’s 458,000 children 35% between the ages of 0‒8 could experience mental, emotional, developmental, or behavioral challenges. 30% 25%
30.9% 24.4%
22.2%
20% 14.7%
Note: Estimates shown are from national studies completed prior to the COVID-19 pandemic Source: Child and Adolescent Health Measurement Initiative (2017-2018); Brauner C.B., Stephens CB. (2006); Cree R.A., Bitsko R.H., Robinson L.R., et al. (2016).
15% 10%
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
12.6%
9.8% *
Current Affairs
15
We’re all monetary theorists now! Major central bank balance sheets Percent of GDP, December 11, 2020 70% 62% 60%
50% 44% 40% 35% 30%
20%
10%
0%
2008
2011 European Central Bank
2014 Federal Reserve
2020
2017 Bank of England
Source: Datastream and Wells Fargo Securities
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Utah Economy
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
Low-income workers feel the pain Jobs ranked by 2019 average weekly earnings Percent change in employment from February 2020–November 2020 5%
0% -2.9% -3.1% -3.8%
-5%
-10%
-10.5% -12.5%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
-35%
-40%
Feb
Mar
Apr
Highest-Paying Quintile
May Second Quintile
Jun
Jul Middle Quintile
Aug
Sep Fourth Quintile
Oct
Nov Lowest-Paying Quintile
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Utah Economy
17
Shaken confidence U.S. and Utah indicies of consumer sentiment, 2020 120
100
Consumer Sentiment
80
60
40
20
November
October
August
July Utah
September
U.S.
June
May
April
March
February
January
0
Note: Utah Consumer Confidence Index began in October 2020 and is ongoing Source: U.S. Index of Consumer Sentiment, University of Michigan, and Utah Consumer Index, University of Utah
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Utah Economy
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
Hopeful CEOs Utah CEOutlook confidence index 2017–Q3 2020 80.0
66.3 62.8
62.0
60.6
62.4
62.3
60.9
61.2
60.1 55.5
53.2
59.4
57.3
53.3
50.0
Concern
Confidence Index
60.0
Optimism
70.0
40.0 32.3 30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Q1
Q2 Q3 2017
Q4
Q1
Q2 Q3 2018
Q4
Q1
Q2 Q3 2019
Q4
Q1
Q2 2020
Q3
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute and Salt Lake Chamber survey of business leaders
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Utah Economy
19
Utah’s Secret Sauce State-level social capital index, 2018
1
#
Bottom 20%
Top 20%
Note: Social capital is defined in this study as the aspects of our relationships that produce benefits for us. Social capital is likely to be “greater” or more productive in families, communities, and organizations with an abundance of close, supportive relationships. Source: Joint Economic Committee/Social Capital Project.
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Utah Economy
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
Drowning in student loans? You’re not alone Utah non-mortgage household debt by type, 2003–2019 Average balance per capita in 2020 dollars $18,000 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000
Other Debt
Student Loan
Credit Card
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
$0
Auto
Note: Non-mortgage debt includes home equity loans and lines of credit. Source: Federal Reserve Bank, New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel, Equifax
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Utah Economy
21
This is the Place...for industrial banks Industrial bank assets, 2020 Share of U.S. industrial bank total and total assets in billions of dollars
MN <0.1%
NV 6.9% CA 0.5%
UT 92.2%
IN 0.1%
None $0.1 or less $0.3 to $0.5 $11.9 $159.2 HI 0.3%
Note: Asset balances as of September 30, 2020 for all 24 industrial banks in the U.S. Source: Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council
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Utah Economy
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
Quarantine on wheels Utah RV sales Q4 2019â&#x20AC;&#x201C;Q3 2020 16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0 2017 Q1
Q2
2018 Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2019 Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2020 Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Note: RV sales include camper, motor home, trailer - 750lbs or less, trailer - standard, trailer - tent or camper, and trailer - travel new dealer sales Source: Utah State Tax Commission, New Vehicle Sales
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Utah Economy
23
Employment centers Distribution of jobs and population in Utah, 2020 Cache 42.9 Rich 32.1 Weber 41.7 Davis 36.2 Morgan 20.7 Daggett 35.6
Box Elder 36.1
Tooele 22.6
Summit 62.6
Salt Lake 60.2
Wasatch 29.1 Utah 36.8
Juab 30.1
Piute 15.9
Iron 34.5
50.0 - 62.6
Uintah 32.3
Sanpete 26.0 Sevier 39.6
Washington 36.4
Duchesne 36.8
Carbon 39.1
Millard 33.7
Beaver 39.4
U.S.: 42.2 Utah: 45.3
Emery 29.7
Grand 51.6
Wayne 36.0 Garfield 38.2
San Juan 23.3
Kane 43.7 40.0 - 49.9
30.0 - 39.9
15.9 - 29.9
Note: Jobs per 100 population Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
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Utah Economy
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
All economics is regional Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economic regions
Regional center
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Utah Economy
25
Utah leads in economic diversity State-level Hachman Index, 2019 Based on two-digit industry GDP data
WA 82.3 ND 50.8
MT 79.2
OR 93.1
ID 77.4
NV 68.0 CA 92.7
WY 32.1
MN 93.8
CO 93.8
AZ 96.1
WI 91.2 IA 75.2
KS 90.7 OK 57.6
NM 57.8 TX 75.3
AK 38.5
VT 89.2
SD 63.0 NE 73.7
UT 97.3
ME 90.9
MO 96.7
AR 87.6 LA 83.8
IL 95.6
NY 77.9
MI 91.3 OH 93.2
IN 77.7
KY 89.6
PA 95.4 WV 62.5
TN 92.4 MS 86.1
AL 90.3
GA 96.5
NH 94.5 MA 89.5 RI 89.3 CT 89.8 NJ 94.1 MD 88.2
DE 60.2 VA 89.9 DC 49.1 NC 93.8 SC 90.9 Hachman Index Score
FL 92.1
95.0+ (Most Diverse) 90.0 - 94.9 85.0 - 89.9 75.0 - 84.9 <75.0 (Least Diverse)
HI 70.1
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
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Utah Economy
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
Salt Lake County leads in economic diversity County-level Hachman Index, 2019 Based on two-digit industry employment data Cache 74.2 Rich 45.7 Weber 89.8 Davis 84.9 Morgan 54.0 Daggett 35.2
Box Elder 59.0
Tooele 79.5
Salt Lake 94.0 Utah 80.9
Summit 42.0 Wasatch 67.6
Juab 65.9 Sanpete 58.2
Emery 19.6
Sevier 44.9 Piute 25.8
Iron 80.4
Washington 83.5
Uintah 17.5
Carbon 30.7
Millard 28.8
Beaver 19.5
Duchesne 11.6
Grand 46.8
Wayne 53.1 Garfield 39.2
San Juan 47.7
Kane 43.5
80.0+ (Most Diverse)
40.0 - 59.9
60.0 - 79.9
20.0 - 39.9
<20.0 (Least Diverse)
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Utah Economy
27
Growth in equity, diversity, and inclusion Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s universities total headcount by race/ethnicity 1999 compared to 2019
1999 2019 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
White enrollment
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Minority enrollment
Note: Excludes non-resident students and students whose race was not reported Source: Utah System of Higher Education
28
Utah Economy
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
“
transformational change around diversity, equity, inclusion, and belonging can’t just be transactional. It has to be Deep
”
relational. - Aiko Bethea
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Utah Economy
29
Saving for a rainy day Rainy day fund balances as a percent of general fund expenditures, 2019
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40%
9.2%
30% 20% 10%
Illinois Kansas Pennsylvania Kentucky New Jersey Montana Arkansas New York Wisconsin Virginia Louisiana Arizona Florida Hawaii Maryland Rhode Island North Carolina North Dakota Delaware Tennessee Mississippi South Carolina Missouri Nevada Washington Nebraska New Hampshire Ohio Maine Indiana Colorado Utah Alabama Iowa Massachusetts South Dakota Minnesota Georgia Michigan Idaho Oklahoma Oregon Connecticut Vermont New Mexico California West Virginia Texas Alaska Wyoming
0%
QAMO
STUDENT SUBMISSION
Source: National Association of State Budget Officers, Fall 2019 Fiscal Survey
30
Utah Economy
Submitted by David Eccles School of Business Quantitative Analysis of Markets & Organizations (QAMO) student Sophia Bagley
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
Recession* Year-over change in nonfarm employment January 2000â&#x20AC;&#x201C;October 2020 10.0%
5.0% 2.8% 2.6%
-0.2%
0.0%
-5.0%
-6.0%
-10.0%
Utah
United States
Nov-20
Jan-20
Mar-19
May-18
Jul-17
Sep-16
Nov-15
Jan-15
Mar-14
May-13
Jul-12
Sep-11
Nov-10
Jan-10
Mar-09
May-08
Jul-07
Sep-06
Nov-05
Jan-05
Mar-04
May-03
Jul-02
Sep-01
Nov-00
Jan-00
-15.0%
Recession
*The 2020 COVID-19 recession has not yet been defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee. Note: Not seasonally adjusted Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Utah Economy
31
Eastern Utah hard hit Year-over change in nonfarm employment in Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s counties November 2019â&#x20AC;&#x201C;November 2020 Cache 0.0% Rich 3.9% Weber 0.3% Davis 1.6% Morgan 1.7% Daggett 0.8%
Box Elder -3.4%
Tooele 0.2%
Summit -13.3%
Salt Lake -1.5%
Wasatch -0.8% Utah 1.9%
Juab 0.5% Sanpete -0.7%
Emery 1.8%
Sevier -1.1%
Iron 0.1%
Washington 1.0%
Uintah -7.8%
Carbon -3.8%
Millard -1.6%
Beaver -3.2%
Duchesne -7.2%
Piute -2.6%
Grand -3.5%
Wayne -1.8% Garfield -2.9%
San Juan -7.1%
Kane -1.9%
>2.0%
0.0% to -3.1%
-7.2% to -7.8%
0.0% to 1.9%
-3.2% to -7.1%
-7.9% to -13.3%
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
32
Utah Economy
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
Utah small business life preservers Federal financial assistance to Utah businesses during the pandemic 80%
40%
No data collected
No data collected
Percentage of Businesses
60%
Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) SBA Loan Forgiveness This business has not requested financial assistance from any source since March 13, 2020
12/23 to 11/29
11/16 to 11/22
11/9 to 11/15
10/4 to 10/12
9/27 to 10/3
9/20 to 9/26
9/13 to 9/19
9/6 ro 9/12
8/30 to 9/5
8/23 to 8/29
8/16 to 8/22
8/9 to 8/15
6/21to 6/27
6/14 to 6/20
6/7 to 6/13
5/31 to 6/6
5/24 to 5/30
5/17 to 5/23
5/10 to 5/16
5/3 to 5/9
0%
4/26 to 5/2
20%
Economic Injury Disaster Loans (EIDL) Federal Sick and Family Leave Tax Credits (only available in Phase 2)
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Business Pulse Survey
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Utah Economy
33
Termites in the woodwork U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio, 1948â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2020 Federal fiscal years
140%
Outstanding Debt as a Percent of GDP
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
2020
2017
2014
2011
2008
2005
2002
1999
1996
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
1969
1966
1963
1960
1957
1954
1951
1948
0%
Source: U.S. Treasury; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
34
Utah Economy
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
Utah economy fares better during COVID-19 recession State coincident indexes Percent change Marchâ&#x20AC;&#x201C;November 2020
-2.1% -5.0%
NH -3.8%
U.S. -4.3%
-9.6%
VT 1.7%
-3.6%
-2.8%
-3.6% 0.7%
-1.7%
-4.0%
-6.4% -4.3%
1.8% 4.7%
-1.3%
-8.7%
-4.6%
-3.5%
-4.8%
1.9%
3.0%
CT -9.1% NJ -8.1%
0.1% - 4.3% -2.3%
DE 2.9% MD -10.8%
-1.5%
-4.3% -1.2%
0.3% -0.5% -1.3%
-2.5%
MA -9.7% RI -6.7%
-1.6% -5.0% -3.0%
-1.4%
-8.8%
-7.5%
-2.1%
0.7%
-3.2%
-2.3% -1.5% -21.6%
Note: The Coincident Economic Activity Index combines nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and real wage and salary dispursements. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Utah Economy
35
Mother may I? Child care need and gaps in Utah before COVID-19
153,950 children have the potential need for child care
55,460 available slots
The families of 98,750 children do not have access to child care
Child care gap: 64.1% of the potential need Source: Bipartisan Policy Center in partnership with the Utah Department of Workforce Services Office of Child Care
36
Utah Economy
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
Utahns needing help United Way of Salt Lake 211 calls 2019 compared to 2020 7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
January
February
March
April
May
June 2019
July
August September October November
2020
Note: 211 is a free information helpline that connects people of all ages and from all communities to the essential health and human services they need, 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Source: United Way of Salt Lake
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Utah Economy
37
The need for student-centered funding Utah student outcomes based on economic status, 2018 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% High School Graduation
Scoring ≥ 18 on the ACT
Mathematics Proficiency
Economically Disadvantaged
ELA Proficiency
3rd Grade Literacy
Not Economically Disadvantaged
Note: “Economically disadvantaged” refers to a child experiencing intergenerational poverty, living in a family with an annual income at or below 185% of the federal poverty level, or living with a legal custodian or legal guardian who can attest that the child or the child’s household is receiving services benefitting lowincome households or individuals, as defined in Utah Code 53B-8a-201. Source: Utah State Board of Education
38
Utah Economy
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
Who CARES? Utah does CARES Act allocations by state as a share of estimated 2020 GDP
0.5% 2.5%
1.9%
2.4% 0.6%
0.7% 1.5%
0.7% 0.5%
0.7%
2.3%
3.5%
1.0% 0.7%
0.8%
0.6%
0.6%
0.7% 0.6% 0.7%
0.7% 0.8%
1.3%
0.4%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
1.7% 0.6% 0.7%
0.7% 1.0%
0.8% 1.1% 0.9%
0.7%
0.7%
3.9% 1.5% 0.5% 2.1% 0.5% 0.6% 1.7% 0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
2.5% 0.8% 1.4% CARES share of 2020 GDP
0.4%
3.9%
Source: Department of the Treasury Office of Inspector General (OIG)
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Public Finance
39
40 Public Finance Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
$3,510 $3,601
Jul-20 Aug-20
$3,459
$3,625
Jun-20
Sep-20
$3,547
$2,997
Apr-20 May-20
$3,089
$2,739
Feb-20 Mar-20
$2,729
Jan-20
$3,832
$3,157
Nov-19
$2,000
Dec-19
$3,013
$2,812
$3,150
Oct-19
Sep-19
Aug-19
$2,958
Jul-19
$2,754
May-19
$2,950
$2,736
Apr-19
Jun-19
$2,804
$1,500
Mar-19
$2,354
$0 Feb-19
$500
$2,453
$1,000
Jan-19
Millions
All the small things add up
Utah taxable retail sales January 2019â&#x20AC;&#x201C;September 2020 $4,500
$4,000
$3,500
$3,000
$2,500
Source: Utah State Tax Commission
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
Fiscal responsibility Utah general obligation debt relative to constitutional debt limit FY2007â&#x20AC;&#x201C;FY2020 100% 90% 80% 70% 60%
38.1%
44.1%
42.9%
53.3%
64.7%
77.2%
55.1% 33.4%
28.3%
10%
36.7%
20%
48.1%
30%
82.1%
77.3%
40%
88.8%
50%
FY2020
FY2019
FY2018
FY2017
FY2016
FY2015
FY2014
FY2013
FY2012
FY2011
FY2010
FY2009
FY2008
FY2007
0%
Source: Utah Division of Finance
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Public Finance
41
Utah’s global mix Utah’s top 10 trading partners, 2020 Percent of total value excluding gold
Canada 16.0%
Mexico 10.3%
Canada 16.0%
Mexico 10.3%
Utah’s top 10 exports, 2020 Percent of total value excluding gold Computer & Electronic Products 20.4%
Chemicals 17.3%
Computer & Electronic Products 20.4%
Chemicals 17.3%
Japan 7.6%
Taiwan 7.2%
South Korea 5.6%
Japan China 7.6% 7.4%
Taiwan Netherlands 7.2% 5.9%
China 7.4%
Netherlands 5.9%
South Korea Germany 4.6% 5.6% Australia Singapore 2.9% 2.8%
Australia 2.9%
Transportation Equipment 9.5%
Food & Kindred Products 12.1%
Food & Kindred Products Miscellaneous Manufactured 12.1% Commodities 10.0%
Germany 4.6%
Transportation Equipment Machinery 9.5% 3.8%
Except Electrical
Singapore 2.8% Minerals & Ores 5.8% Minerals & Ores 5.8%2.0% 2.7%
5.6%
Miscellaneous Manufactured Machinery Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components 3.8% Commodities Except Electrical Plastics & Rubber Products 10.0% 5.6% Fabricated Metal Products
2.7% 2.0%
Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components Plastics & Rubber Products Fabricated Metal Products Note: Data through October 2020. Gold accounted for 50% of Utah’s exports through October of 2020; 98% of gold exports went to the United Kingdom during this time. Source: USA Trade Online
42
Public Finance
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
Does it walk like a duck? U.S. and Utah revenue sources, 2018
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% Taxes
User Fees U.S.
Other Revenue Utah
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Annual Survey of State and Local Government Finances
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Public Finance
43
A sellersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; market in the Beehive State Home sales and listings in Utah
Homes sold 7,000
# of Homes Sold
6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Active listings 12,000
Avg. Daily Listings
10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
Jan
2016-19 Avg.
2020
Source: UtahRealEstate.com
44
Real Estate and Construction
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
Up, up, up they go...where they stop, no-one knows! Home price growth in Utah, 2019â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2020 18%
$400
16% $350
$300
12%
10% $250 8%
$200
Year-Over % Change
Median Sales Price ($1,000's)
14%
6%
4% $150 2%
$100
Median Sales Price (Left axis)
Dec-20
Nov-20
Oct-20
Sep-20
Aug-20
Jul-20
Jun-20
May-20
Apr-20
Mar-20
Feb-20
Jan-20
Dec-19
Nov-19
Oct-19
Sep-19
Aug-19
Jul-19
Jun-19
May-19
Apr-19
Mar-19
Feb-19
Jan-19
0%
Year-Over % Change (Right axis)
Source: UtahRealEstate.com
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Real Estate and Construction
45
“make money For
two decades a reliably easy way to
has been to buy a commercial building
go to sleep… But now the virus has thrown that assumption into a cement mixer. and
– Adapted from The Economist, June 27, 2020
46
Real Estate and Construction
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
”
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
The housing shortage is real Annual increase in households and housing units in Utah/cumulative shortage, 2010â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2019 30,000 20,000
10,000
0
-10,000 -20,000
-30,000
-40,000
-50,000 -60,000 2010
2011
2012
2013
Households
2014
2015
Housing Units
2016
2017
2018
2019
Cumulative Deficit
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Real Estate and Construction
47
A hot housing market Change in FHFA state-level house price index Seasonally adjusted, purchase-only index, 2015 Q3â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2020 Q3
2 60%
1 74%
4 3
53%
57%
5 49%
Source: FHFA
48
Real Estate and Construction
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
From coast to coast Top 25 metro areas ranked by median sales price of single-family homes Q1 2020 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR, WA
Salem, OR
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA Sacramento-Roseville-Arden Arcade, CA
Barnstable Town , MA
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT Salt Lake City, UT
Newark NJ PA
Reno, NV
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward CA San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale CA
Nassau County-Suffolk County NY New York-NewarkJersey City, NY NJ
Denver-Aurora, CO Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
Colorado Springs, CO
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA San Diego-Carlsbad, CA
Anaheim-Santa Anna-Irvine, CA
Austin-Round Rock TX
Honolulu, HI Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL
Area
Price
Year-over % Change
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach FL
Area
Price
Year-over % Change
Salem, OR
$331,400
13.4%
Colorado Springs, CO
$339,100
14.4%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
$438,900
Austin-Round Rock, TX
$341,500
12.6%
Denver-Aurora, CO
$473,800
6.1%
Salt Lake City, UT
$372,100
12.3%
Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL
$480,000
11.9%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
$375,000
7.1%
Nassau County-Suffolk County, NY
$487,700
2.8%
Newark, NJ-PA
$388,000
7.9%
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA
$494,400
7.2%
Sacramento-Roseville-Arden Arcade, CA
$392,300
9.0%
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
$554,500
11.5%
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
$393,000
7.7%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA
$592,800
8.1%
Reno, NV
$407,600
7.7%
San Diego-Carlsbad, CA
$670,000
8.1%
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR,-WA
$416,100
6.5%
Honolulu, HI
$788,800
-0.7%
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
$420,300
6.0%
Anaheim-Santa Anna-Irvine, CA
$875,000
9.4%
Barnstable Town, MA
$426,600
4.7%
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA
$985,000
5.9%
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT
$432,100
7.7%
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
$1,350,000
10.7%
4.5%
Source: National Association of Realtors DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Real Estate and Construction
49
NOT a renter’s market Gap of affordable and available rental units for renters at 0–50% of area median income in Utah Year
Renter Households at ≤50%
Available and Affordable
Affordability Gap
2010
111,251
70,199
41,052
2011
113,717
78,010
35,707
2012
114,283
68,570
45,713
2013
116,299
69,012
47,287
2014
118,947
71,844
47,103
2015
121,701
77,037
44,664
2016
119,230
74,161
45,069
2017
123,432
75,417
48,015
2018
123,861
74,317
49,545
AARC
1.35%
0.72%
2.38%
Source: HUD CHAS, 2010–2015, and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, 2016–2018
50
Real Estate and Construction
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
Crossroads of the West Cumulative permitted commercial construction $700
$600
$500
Millions
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Industrial/Warehouse 2020 2016-19 Average
May
Jun
Office
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Retail 2020 2016-19 Average
2020 2016-19 Average
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Real Estate and Construction
51
May I take your order? Year-over seated diners in U.S. and Utah Online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins 40%
SLC shifts from Orange to Yellow restriction level
20%
0%
Year-over Change
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
-100%
-120% Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20 Utah
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
United States
Note: From a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network Source: OpenTable.com
52
Travel and Tourism
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
Tourism struggling Leisure and hospitality taxable sales, 2019â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2020 Total sales and change from prior year $900
$800 +11.9% $700
+9.1%
-12.6%
Millions of Dollars
$600
-12.8%
-5.0%
-20.0% -37.3%
$500
-31.1% $400 -52.2%
$300
$200
$100
$0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May 2019
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
2020
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Utah State Tax Commission data
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Travel and Tourism
53
Tipping welcome Utah leisure and hospitality employment, 2019â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2020 Total jobs and change from prior year 180
160
+7.5%
+8.6%
+4.4%
140 -18.7%
-20.4%
-16.8%
-15.4%
-14.1%
120 Thousands of Jobs
-27.7% 100 -43.1% 80
60
40
20
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2019
2020
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data
54
Travel and Tourism
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
First-class airport awaits your arrival Year-over change in travel-related spending and SLC International Airport passengers, 2019â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2020 20.0%
0.0%
Year-over Change
-20.0%
-40.0%
-60.0%
-80.0%
-100.0%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Air Passengers
Arts, Ent., & Rec.
Car Rental
U.S. Travel Spending
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Accommodations
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Salt Lake City International Airport, Utah State Tax Commission, and U.S. Travel Association data
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Travel and Tourism
55
This land is your land Year-over change in Utah park visitation, 2019â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2020
100% 80% 60%
Year-over Change
40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% -100%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May State Parks
June
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
National Parks
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of National Park Service and Utah State Parks data
56
Travel and Tourism
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
Come to Zion Year-over change in hotel occupancy rates, Springdale vs. downtown Salt Lake City, 2019â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2020
40.0%
20.0%
Year-over Change
0.0%
-20.0%
-40.0%
-60.0%
-80.0%
-100.0% Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Nay Springdale
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Downtown Salt Lake City
Note: Republication or other re-use of this data without the express written permission of STR, Inc. is strictly prohibited. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of STR, Inc., data
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Travel and Tourism
57
Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s power cocktail Fuel mix of electric power generation in Utah, 2020
Fossil Fuels, 86.5%
Solar, 6.9%
Hydroelectric, 2.8% Wind, 2.2% Geothermal, 1.0% Biomass, 0.2% Other, 0.3%
Note: Data are through September. Fossil fuels consist of coal, natural gas, petroleum liquids, and other gases. Other comprises cogeneration, waste heat, and non-biogenic municipal solid waste. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
58
Energy and Environment
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
Uinta Basin challenge Rotary drilling rig count in Utah, 2010–2020 40
35
Yearly Average of Rotary Rigs
30
25
20
15
10
5
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
0
Note: 2020 data represents average of counts through August. Source: Baker Hughes U.S. Annual Average Rig Count by State (2010–2016) and North America Monthly Rig Count by State (2017–2020)
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Energy and Environment
59
Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s oil price threshold West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices, 2020
$70 $60 $50
Nominal Price per Barrel
$40 $30 $20 $10 $0 -$10 -$20
Oct-20
Sep-20
Aug-20
Jul-20
Jun-20
May-20
Apr-20
Mar-20
Feb-20
-$40
Jan-20
-$30
Projected range of WTI prices needed to cover Uinta Basin operating expenses
Source: Energy Information Administration (Cushing, OK WTI Spot Prices FOB)
60
Energy and Environment
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
Drive less, use less, fly much less Year-over change in U.S. petroleum consumption, 2019â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2020
20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0% -60.0% -70.0% -80.0%
Gasoline
Distillate
Oct 23, 2020
Oct 09, 2020
Sep 25, 2020
Sep 11, 2020
Aug 28, 2020
Aug 14, 2020
Jul 31, 2020
Jul 17, 2020
Jul 03, 2020
Jun 19, 2020
Jun 05, 2020
May 22, 2020
May 08, 2020
Apr 24, 2020
Apr 10, 2020
Mar 27, 2020
Mar 13, 2020
Feb 28, 2020
Feb 14, 2020
Jan 31, 2020
Jan 17, 2020
Jan 03, 2020
-90.0%
Jet Fuel
Note: Distillate consists mostly of diesel fuel Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Weekly Product Supplied
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Energy and Environment
61
Mask up, Utah COVID-19 cases per 1,000,000 population by state December 1, 2020 120,000
100,000
80,000
UT = 61,044 60,000
40,000
20,000
ND SD IA WI NE UT MT IL WY MN ID KS TN RI AR MS AL IN LA OK MO NV FL NM AZ AK GA TX SC CO KY MI NJ DE OH NC NY MD CT MA CA DC PA VA WV WA OR NH HI ME VT
0
Note: Despite having a high rate of COVID-19 cases, Utah has maintained a low death rate compared to other states. On Dec. 1, 2020, Utah had the 6th lowest number of COVID-19 deaths per million population (272). That said, this rate is increasing. By Dec. 10, 2020, the rate was 310. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation estimates based on Johns Hopkins Universityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) and 2019 Population data from U.S. Census Bureau
62
Health
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
Still hitting us hard Cumulative COVID-19 case-fatality rates in Utah vs. U.S. March 2020â&#x20AC;&#x201C;December 2020 7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0% Mar
Apr.
May
Jun.
U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate
Jul.
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate
Note: Case-fatality rate is COVID-19 deaths as a percent of total COVID-19 cases. COVID-19 data as of December 3, 2020. Utah's young population partly contributes to its low fatality rate. Source: Utah Department of Health COVID-19 Surveillance; Johns Hopkins University (JHU) Coronavirus Resource Center
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Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s COVID-19 multicultural disparities Utah COVID-19 hospitalization rate per 1,000 cases and mortality rate per 100,000 population by race and ethnicity December 1, 2020 Native Hawaiian/ Pacific Islander
94.9 71.4
American Indian/ Alaska Native
Utah Small Areas with Highest COVID-19 Case Rates December 9, 2020
91.8
Crude Case Rate / 100,000 Population
76.2
Black/African American
51.9 18.9 50.4
Asian
25.9 43.7
Hispanic or Latino
36.9
White alone, not Hispanic or Latino
41.3 23.0 42.3
Other race
NA
14,098
Provo (East City Center)
11,877
Provo (West City Center)
11,297
Glendale
11,127
San Juan (excluding Blanding/Monticello)
10,626
West Valley (East)
10,470
Kearns
10,270
Rose Park
10,178
West Valley (Center)
10,095
West Valley (West)
9.3
Unknown
North Orem
9,949
NA 0
10
20
30
40
Hospitalization Rate / 1,000 Cases
50
60
70
80
90
100
Mortality Rate / 100,000 Population
Note: Utah's statewide average hospitalization rate was 41.7 per 1,000 cases and average mortality rate was 28.7 per 100,000 population as of December 1, 2020. Source: Utah Department of Health COVID-19 Surveillance
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Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
High anxiety Share of adults who report anxiety disorder symptoms in Utah vs. U.S., 2020 40%
38.0%
35%
30% 37.2% 25%
20%
15% 8.2%
10%
Nov 11 Nov 23
Oct 28 Nov 9
Oct 14 Oct 26
Sep 30 Oct 12
Sep 16 Sep 28
Sep 2 Sep 14
Aug 19 Aug 31
July 16 July 21
July 9 July 14
July 2 July 7
June 25 June 30
June 18 June 23
June 11 June 16
June 4 June 9
May 28 June 2
May 21 May 26
May 14 May 19
May 7 May 12
0%
Apr 23 May 5
5%
2020 U.S. 2020
Utah 2020
U.S. 2019 Average
Note: Adults age 18 and older. U.S. 2019 average is from January to June. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Household Pulse Survey, 2020; National Center for Health Statistics, National Health Interview Survey, 2019
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Dr. Zoom Utah telehealth visits by type January–August 2020 weekly totals 25,000
Number of Telehealth Visits
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0 Jan
Feb
Mar Mental Health
Apr
May
Other
Note: Includes HCPCS/CPT procedure codes in the “Telehealth” category from the Clinic Classifications Software for Services and Procedures. Also includes any procedure otherwise indicated as being delivered via telehealth, i.e., Place of Service Code 02, CPT Modifiers 95 and GT. Source: Utah All Payer Claims Database (APCD). From: Preliminary COVID-19 Healthcare Trends: A Snapshot from Utah’s All Payer Claims Database & Healthcare Facility Database. (2020, December). Utah Department of Health Office of Health Care Statistics.
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Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
Another unintended consequence of COVID-19 Utah childhood vaccinations 2019 compared to 2020
Number of Vaccine Administrations
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun 2019
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2020
Note: The claims for the number of vaccines administered to children in 2020 largely mirrored 2019 trends for the months of January and February. In March 2020, a notable gap developed, which persists throughout the period of observation. Unlike some medical services which can be provided via telehealth, immunizations must be administered in person. Totals include diphtheria, tetanus and acellular pertussis (DTaP); polio (IPV); measles, mumps and rubella (MMR); haemophilus influenza type B (HiB); hepatitis B (HepB); chicken pox (VZV); and pneumococcal conjugate (PCV). Represents vaccines included in “Childhood Immunization Status Combination 3”, as depicted by NCQA. Source: Utah All Payer Claims Database (APCD). From: Preliminary COVID-19 Healthcare Trends: A Snapshot from Utah’s All Payer Claims Database & Healthcare Facility Database. (2020, December). Utah Department of Health Office of Health Care Statistics.
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Public health spending in Utah Public health funding per capita by state, 2019
WA $96 OR $81
NV $53 CA $114
MT $120 ID $150
UT $80
AZ $53
ND $113
WY $112
CO $101
MN $85
WI $55
SD $113 IA $91
NE $98
IL $73
KS $60 OK $89
NM $220 TX $60
AK $281
NH $82 VT $144
MO $57
OH $53
IN $53
KY $87
PA $57 WV $140 VA $77
TN $99
AR $108 LA $89
NY $148
MI $58
MS $85
AL $115
GA $76
FL $64
HI $192
NC $59 SC $80
ME $99
MA $137 RI $141 CT $86 NJ $66 DE $111 MD $104
Health Ranking by State 1–10 11–20 21–30 30–40 41–50
Note: State dollars dedicated to public health and federal dollars directed to states per person by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Health Resources & Services Administration (2-year estimate). Source: America's Health Rankings analysis of Trust for America’s Health; U.S. HHS; U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2018, United Health Foundation, AmericasHealthRankings.org, Accessed 2020.
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One big, happy family Multigenerational households, 2014–2018 Percent of total households Cache 3.0% Rich 0.6% Weber 9% Davis 4.4%* Morgan 4.0% Daggett 0.0%
Box Elder 4.0%
Tooele 3.8%
Salt Lake 4.5%*
Summit 1.4%
Wasatch Duchesne 3.6% 4.4%* Utah 4.5%*
Juab 4.0%
Millard 3.1%
Beaver 3.2%
Carbon 4.6%* Sanpete 4.3%* Sevier 2.7% Piute 3.6%
Iron 2.4% Washington 3.6%
Uintah 4.9%*
Emery 3.0%
Grand 2.8%
Wayne 2.3% 4.1%
San Juan 6.8%*
Kane 1.6%
*Higher than State Share: 4.2%
≤1.6%
≤3.2%
≤4.1%
≤4.9%
≤6.8%
Source: American Community Survey 2018 5-Year Estimates
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Moving next door Current Utah residents who lived in a different western state one year ago, 2019 58,221 new residents (61%) are from the highlighted states
WA 4.7% MT 1.4% OR 3.0%
ID 7.1%
WY 1.6%
NV 4.6%
UT CA 18.6%
CO 8.2%
AZ 6.6% NM 0.7% TX 5.1%
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 1-Year American Community Survey Estimates
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Demographics
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s melting pot Place of birth for Utah residents, 2019 Born in Utah
Born outside of Utah
69%
9.3%
31%
7.5%
2.5%
California
Idaho
Foreign Country
Arizona 1.6% Texas 1.4% Colorado 1.3% Washington 1.2% Nevada 1.0% Illinois 0.8% New York 0.8% Oregon 0.6%
Note: Areas shown have at least 20,000 Utahns born there. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 1-Year Estimates
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To everything there is a season Seasonal births and deaths indexes for Utah and six largest counties, 2001â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2017
Weber County Davis County Region
Births
Cache County
Salt Lake County Utah County Washington County State of Utah Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Fewer Births
Nov
Dec
More Births 90
95
100
105
Cache County Weber County Davis County Region
Deaths
Oct
Salt Lake County Utah County Washington County State of Utah Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Fewer Deaths
Oct
Nov
Dec
More Deaths 90
95
100
105
110
Note: An index over 100 indicates more births or deaths occur in that month on average, and vice versa. See Wilson, T., McDonald, P., & Temple, J. (2020). The geographical patterns of birth seasonality in Australia. Demographic Research, 43(40), 1185â&#x20AC;&#x201C;1198. Sources: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, Utah Department of Health
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Demographics
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
Utah County...baby county Natural increase in Salt Lake County and Utah County, 2010â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2020
14,000
13,000
12,000
Natural Increase
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Salt Lake County
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Utah County
Source: Utah Population Committee, 2020
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Utah County on the rise Net migration as a share of population change, 2020
Rest of Utah, 11%
Utah County, 42%
Iron County, 4%
Tooele County, 5%
Washington County, 26%
Salt Lake County, 12%
Source: Utah Population Committee, 2020
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Demographics
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
Live here, work there Utah commuting data, 2018
Top 10 Commuting Counties County
Workforce
Outbound Commuters
Percent of Workforce
Top 10 Live & Work Counties County
Workforce
Outbound Commuters
Percent of Workforce
Morgan
5,291
4,108
77.60%
Salt Lake
Tooele
32,459
24,199
74.60%
Washington
Wasatch
15,985
11,399
71.30%
Grand
5,600
1,361
24.30%
781
504
64.50%
San Juan
4,213
1,273
30.20%
Davis
150,699
95,330
63.30%
Kane
3,280
1,187
36.20%
Piute
436
276
63.30%
Utah
267,633
97,104
36.30%
346
210
60.70%
Millard
5,402
1,990
36.80%
27,135
16,051
59.20%
Beaver
2,383
881
37.00%
4,759
2,786
58.50%
Cache
60,911
22,844
37.50%
21,904
11,829
54.00%
Garfield
984
374
38.00%
Rich
Daggett Box Elder Juab Summit
570,377
93,138
16.30%
64,412
13,904
21.60%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap, 2018 American Community Survey
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But after COVID, commutes changed COVID-19 Telework: Top-10 states
District of Columbia
66%
Utah
50%
Massachusetts
48%
Colorado
47%
Maryland
46%
Connecticut
45%
New Jersey
44%
Vermont
44%
Virginia
43%
Illinois
43% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Note: Top 10 percentages of adults living in households where at least one adult has substituted some or all of their typical in-person work for telework because of the coronavirus pandemic Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Household Pulse Survey Weeks 13-19 (August 19â&#x20AC;&#x201C;November 23, 2020).
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Demographics
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
We like to be counted Top-10 self-response rates by state for 2020 Census Utah ranked 10th of all states with 71% of Utahns self-responding to the 2020 Census
WA 72.4% MN 75.1%
UT 71.0%
NE 71.9%
IA 71.5%
WI 72.4%
MI 71.3%
IL 71.4% VA 71.5%
MD 71.2%
Nationally, 67% of people self-responded to the 2020 Census. Utahns beat that. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Response Rates as of October 28, 2020
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Probability of making informed decisions
TM
The whole point
Accurate data and information
78
Utah Informed
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021
K E M C . G A R D N E R P O L I C Y I N S T I T U T E S TA F F A N D A D V I S O R S Leadership Team
Staff
Natalie Gochnour, Associate Dean and Director Jennifer Robinson, Associate Director Shelley Kruger, Accounting and Finance Manager Colleen Larson, Administrative Manager Dianne Meppen, Director of Survey Research Pamela S. Perlich, Director of Demographic Research Juliette Tennert, Chief Economist Nicholas Thiriot, Communications Director James A. Wood, Ivory-Boyer Senior Fellow
Max Backlund, Senior Research Associate Samantha Ball, Senior Research Associate Mallory Bateman, Senior Research Analyst Andrea Thomas Brandley, Research Associate Marin Christensen, Research Associate Mike Christensen, Scholar-in-Residence Phil Dean, Public Finance Senior Research Fellow John C. Downen, Deputy Director of Economic and Public Policy Research Dejan Eskic, Senior Research Fellow Emily Harris, Demographer Michael T. Hogue, Senior Research Statistician Mike Hollingshaus, Senior Demographer Thomas Holst, Senior Energy Analyst Meredith King, Research Associate Jennifer Leaver, Senior Tourism Analyst Levi Pace, Senior Research Economist Shannon Simonsen, Research Coordinator Joshua Spolsdoff, Research Economist Paul Springer, Senior Graphic Designer Laura Summers, Senior Health Care Analyst Natalie Young, Research Analyst
Faculty Advisors Matt Burbank, College of Social and Behavioral Science Adam Meirowitz, David Eccles School of Business Elena Patel, David Eccles School of Business Nathan Seegert, David Eccles School of Business
Senior Advisors Jonathan Ball, Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst Gary Cornia, Marriott School of Business Wes Curtis, Community-at-Large Theresa Foxley, EDCUtah Dan Griffiths, Tanner LLC Darin Mellott, CBRE Chris Redgrave, Community-at-Large Wesley Smith, Western Governors University
Partners in the Community
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Advisory Board
The following individuals and entities help support the research mission of the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.
Conveners
Legacy Partners
Board
The Gardner Company Intermountain Healthcare Clark and Christine Ivory Foundation KSL and Deseret News Larry H. & Gail Miller Family Foundation Mountain America Credit Union Salt Lake City Corporation Salt Lake County University of Utah Health Utah Governorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Office of Economic Development WCF Insurance Zions Bank
Scott Anderson, Co-Chair Gail Miller, Co-Chair Doug Anderson Deborah Bayle Cynthia A. Berg Roger Boyer Wilford Clyde Sophia DiCaro Cameron Diehl Lisa Eccles Spencer P. Eccles
Executive Partners Mark and Karen Bouchard The Boyer Company Salt Lake Chamber
Sustaining Partners Clyde Companies Dominion Energy Staker Parson Materials and Construction
Michael O. Leavitt Mitt Romney
Christian Gardner Kem C. Gardner Kimberly Gardner Natalie Gochnour Brandy Grace Clark Ivory Mike S. Leavitt Derek Miller Ann Millner Sterling Nielsen Cristina Ortega Jason Perry Ray Pickup Gary B. Porter Taylor Randall Jill Remington Love
Brad Rencher Josh Romney Charles W. Sorenson James Lee Sorenson Vicki Varela Ruth V. Watkins Ex Officio (invited) Governor Spencer Cox Speaker Brad Wilson Senate President Stuart Adams Representative Brian King Senator Karen Mayne Mayor Jenny Wilson Mayor Erin Mendenhall
Salt Lake Chamber Board of Directors Craig Wagstaff, Chair Gary Porter, Vice Chair Nathan Callister Wilford Clyde John Dahlstrom Theresa Foxley Natalie Gochnour Kay Hall Gary Hoogeveen
Clark Ivory Greg Johnson Fred Lampropoulos Dr. Donna Milavetz Derek Miller Abby Murtagh Sterling Nielsen Scott Parson Ray Pickup
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
I
Thomas S. Monson Center 411 E. South Temple Street Salt Lake City, UT 84111 801-585-5618 gardner.utah.edu
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DAV I D E CC L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S UNIVERSITY OF UTAH
Gaby Poirier Nico Bamberger Priskos Joel Raup Steve Starks Linda Wardell
