Canadian Society for Unconventional Gas (CSUG) hosted by Palliser Economic Partnership

Unconventional Gas in Canada

Opportunities and Challenges Service Sector Workshop June 24, 2010

F M Dawson, President

Canadian Society for Unconventional Gas

Service Sector Workshop

CSUG is a membership-based association, formed in 2002, to support the responsible exploration and development of unconventional gas in Canada Mission “To facilitate the factual and collaborative exchange of unconventional gas knowledge and challenges among government, regulators, industry and public stakeholders for the exploration and production of the resource in an environmentally sensitive and economical manner�

June 24, 2010

Workshop Outline

Service Sector Workshop

Introduction Why do we Need Unconventional Gas?

Module 1

(0.5 hour)

What is Unconventional Gas?

Module 2

(0.5 hour)

Drilling and Completion Technologies

Module 3

( 0.5 hour)

North American Gas Market and its Impact on Western Canada

Module 4

( 0.5 hour)

Opportunities and Challenges

Questions and Discussion

June 24, 2010

Why Do We Need Unconventional Gas?

Service Sector Workshop

Gas Facts  Canada produces approximately 6 Tcf (trillion cubic feet) of gas per year which roughly 50% is exported to United States  This translates into ~ 16 Bcf (billion cubic feet) of produced gas per day Alberta accounts for approximately 80% of this volume

 Peak production from Western Canada was in 2006 and has been declining at a rate of nearly 1 Bcf/day per year  New unconventional gas sources such as Montney are filling in some of the decline gap but conventional production continues to drop  Companies will become more dependent on unconventional gas in order to offset their company decline rates  Unconventional gas resource plays provide opportunities for companies to maintain production as well as grow their reserve base

June 24, 2010

Service Sector Workshop

Why Do We Need Unconventional Gas?

600,000

Natural gas supply decline that must be found from new sources such as unconventional gas

16

400,000

14 12

300,000

200,000

100,000

10

New Brunswick Production Ontario Production NWT/Yukon Production Nova Scotia Production Saskatchewan Production British Columbia Production Alberta Production

Canadian Gas Production 2000-2008

8

From NEB 2008

0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Bcf/day

Daily Gas Production (10 3m3/day)

Peak Production

18

500,000

 General decline since 2006 can be attributed to basin maturity of conventional gas production and retraction of activity due to lower natural gas price  Annual decline rate for 2007-2008 estimated to be 0.9 Bcf/day

Year

June 24, 2010

Service Sector Workshop

Why do we Need Unconventional Gas? Projected Supplies of Natural Gas in United States

 United States conventional production continues to decline from 5 Tcf/yr to < 3 Tcf/yr by 2030  Continued decline of imports from primarily Canada  Projected growth of unconventional gas to fill the gap  Moderate to slow growth of overall natural gas demand until after 2020 30

History

TCF/year

25

Projections

20 Unconventional 15 10

Non-associated offshore Alaska

Associated-dissolved Net imports

5 Non-associated conventional

0 1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 modified from EIA, 2009

June 24, 2010

Module 1 What is Unconventional Gas?

June 24, 2010

Workshop Outline – Module 1

Service Sector Workshop

 What is Unconventional Gas?

 Main Types of Unconventional Gas  Differences between Unconventional and Conventional Reservoirs  Trapping Mechanisms for Gas Storage  Exploration and Development Strategies for Unconventional Gas  Risk Profile – What Risks Do Exploration Companies Face  Resources versus Reserves

June 24, 2010

Workshop Outline â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Module1

Service Sector Workshop

Glossary of Terms Reservoir

The rock that contains potentially economic amounts of natural gas

Porosity

The free space within the fine grained rock that can store natural gas

Permeability

The ability of the rock to pass fluids or gas through it. The higher the permeability number, the greater the amount of fluid or gas that can flow through the rock over a fixed time period

Resources

The amount of gas that is thought to lie within a reservoir (lower degree of confidence) but does not account for how much is actually recoverable

Reserves

The amount of natural gas that is actually proven to be recoverable from a reservoir (high degree of confidence)

Source Rock

The rock material which contains organic material from which the natural gas is formed. In the case of shale gas and coal, the reservoir is also the source rock. In tight gas reservoirs, the natural gas was sourced elsewhere and migrated to the reservoir rock

June 24, 2010

What is Unconventional Gas ? – CSUG Definition

Service Sector Workshop



Unconventional Gas is very simply Natural Gas from what industry would call Unconventional Reservoirs



Often these reservoirs are of a lower quality and require enhanced technology types of completions to yield commercially successful wells



Unconventional gas “plays” are often referred to as Resource “plays”



Resource play types of exploration and development projects are usually successful through lower cost operational efficiency and economy of scale type operations



Lateral pervasiveness of reservoir shifts risk from geology to engineering

June 24, 2010

Service Sector Workshop

What is Unconventional Gas ?

1000 md High Quality

Medium Quality

Tight Larger Reservoirs Gas More Difficult to Develop Gas Shales

100 md 1 md

Coalbed Methane

0.1 md

0.001 md Lower Quality

0.00001 md

Increased Technology Requirements

Smaller Reservoirs Easier to Develop

Increased Cost to Develop

Natural Gas Resource Triangle

Gas Hydrates modified from Schmezl, 2009

June 24, 2010

Types of Unconventional Gas Reservoirs

Service Sector Workshop

Tight Gas Sands and Carbonates  Natural gas has migrated into the micro-porosity of the rock matrix  Commonly found in basin centered gas deposits

Natural Gas from Coal (Coalbed Methane)  Host rock is both source and reservoir for natural gas  Reservoir rock is highly compressible and subject to changes in permeability

Shale Gas  Very high natural gas resource base per volume of reservoir rock due to high micro-porosity  Requires extensive fracture stimulation

June 24, 2010

Types of Unconventional Gas Reservoirs

Service Sector Workshop

Conventional vs Continuous or Unconventional Type Accumulations

from Midnight Oil and Gas, 2009

June 24, 2010

Types of Unconventional Gas Reservoirs

Service Sector Workshop

Conventional Reservoirs  Storage tank  Gas generated elsewhere (source rock) and then migrates to the potential reservoir  Need a trap for the gas: structural, stratigraphic

Unconventional Reservoirs (excluding tight gas and carbonates)    

Both source and reservoir Gas generated in situ, (some migration) Do not necessarily need a trap but generally need a seal Gas held in reservoir by either pressure or low permeability

June 24, 2010

Service Sector Workshop

Types of Unconventional Gas Reservoirs Unconventional Reservoir Continuum

Conventional Gas Reservoirs

Tight Gas Reservoirs

“Hybrid” Gas Reservoirs

Shale Gas Coalbed Methane Reservoirs

The shift from conventional to unconventional reservoirs reflects a change in grain size from higher permeability, coarser grained rocks towards very fine grained rocks with low permeability Reservoir variability both vertical and geographically can lead to the development of “sweet spots” of higher permeability in the finer grained reservoir rocks Core photos courtesy of Canadian Discovery

June 24, 2010

Service Sector Workshop

Types of Unconventional Gas Reservoirs Organic-rich Black Shale     

High TOC & high adsorbed gas Low matrix Sw High matrix Sg Gas stored as free & adsorbed Mature Source Rock

Silt - Laminated Shale or Hybrid   

Gas stored in shale and silt Low to moderate TOC Higher permeabilities in silty layers

Highly Fractured Shale     

Low TOC & low adsorbed gas High matrix Sw Low matrix Sg Gas stored in fractures Shale is the source rock

From Hall, 2008

June 24, 2010

Key Aspects of Unconventional Gas Development

Service Sector Workshop

Two Major Resource Play Types in Canada Deep Horizontal

BIG PRIZE

 High costs due to horizontal drilling and

    

Shallow Co-Mingled

HIGH RISK

multi-stage fracing Well costs $6-10 MM High productivity wells with sharp decline rates Well production >2 MMcf/d High entry costs “Barnett type” business model

LOWER RISK SMALLER PRIZE

 Lower costs due to coiled tubing drilling and use

     

of nitrogen with proppant fracing technology Well costs $250,000 to D&C and Stimulate Low productivity wells with flatter decline rates Economic wells due to co-mingled zones Well production 100-150 mcf/d Lower entry costs “Shallow gas – Manufacturing” business model

June 24, 2010

Key Aspects of Unconventional Gas Development

Service Sector Workshop

 Each basin is unique requiring capital intensive exploration

and experimentation to optimize productive sweet spots as well as stimulation and production methodologies  Creates a two tier approach by industry players:  Early Explorers

- large capital expenditures required - advantage in land acquisition position and cost - higher risk - generally associated with resource play development

 Early Adopters

- apply learnings of the early explorers to optimize capital costs and completion techniques - do not have the opportunity to acquire prime land position other than perhaps by serendipity - lower risk of technology but higher risk associated with resource base size



Most shale and tight gas wells have very high decline rates – need to plan for a large acreage position to allow for continued drilling to offset declines June 24, 2010

Key Aspects of Unconventional Gas Development

Service Sector Workshop

UNCONVENTIONAL GAS STRATEGY

AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO WELL DESIGN

Reservoir Characterization

Completion Strategy

Unlocking the Resource Play

Wellbore Architecture

from E. Schmelzel, 2008

June 24, 2010

Key Aspects of Unconventional Gas Development

Service Sector Workshop Water Disposal

UNCONVENTIONAL GAS STRATEGY

Environmental Impact Surface Impacts

Production Rates

Water Production Casing Exit

Completion Strategy

Multiple Targets

Casing /Tbg Design

Log analysis / type Tortuosity

Frac Design

Frac Initiation Pressure Geochemistry Orientation In-Situ Stress

Vertical Horizontal

Multi-laterial / laterial Open Hole / Slotted liner Flow regime

Wellbore Architecture

Fluid Invasion

Cemented Uncemented

Cement Assurance Zonal Isolation/ Liner Integrity

Open Hole Cased Hole from E. Schmelzel, 2008

Wellhead Config Hole Cleaning

June 24, 2010

Key Aspects of Unconventional Gas Development

Service Sector Workshop

The Key Questions  Reservoir Characterization  Reservoir modeling

THE GOAL

MAXIMIZED  Sweet Spot identification

 Wellbore placement

RESERVOIR EXPOSURE

 Wellbore completion

from E. Schmelzel, 2008

June 24, 2010

Unconventional Gas Risk Profiles Conventional Reservoirs

Service Sector Workshop

Unconventional Reservoirs

Geoscience

Engineering Geoscience

Much of the risk is concentrated in the front end geoscience exploration and the ability to locate natural gas reservoirs of economic size

Engineering

Risk is concentrated in the ability to produce economic volumes from laterally pervasive deposits of natural gas where the risk of finding hydrocarbons is low

June 24, 2010

Service Sector Workshop

Resources versus Reserves

Primary goals of initial exploration programs for unconventional gas plays are:  Define rock properties of the target zones to determine how much gas may be present  Define reservoir properties to guide in the development of the fracture stimulation program  Undertake initial stimulation testing of primary zones to quantify initial productivity  Conduct extended reservoir testing to determine decline rates and changes in reservoir pressure

Reserves

Exploration Activities

Initial Drilling OGIP

Initial Well Testing IP

Initial Well Stimulation and Testing

Extended Well Testing

Multiple Wells And Reproducibility Of Results

Resources P10

P50 Probability of Success

P90

June 24, 2010

Module 2 Drilling and Completion Technologies

June 24, 2010

Workshop Outline – Module 2 

Accessing the Reservoir - Why and How



Drilling and Completion Technologies

Service Sector Workshop

 Coiled Tubing Drilling  Horizontal Drilling  Multi-Lateral Drilling



Completion and Stimulation Techniques  Vertical Fracture Stimulations and Co-Mingling  Multi-Stage Fracture Stimulation Techniques  Micro-Seismic to Determine Effectiveness of Stimulation



Gas Factory Ideology    

Optimization of Reservoir Production Key Aspects of Unconventional Gas Development Stages of Exploration and Development Economies of Scale and Economic Benefits

June 24, 2010

Workshop Outline – Module 2

Service Sector Workshop

Glossary of Terms EUR

Estimated Ultimate Recoverable reserves from a well

OGIP

Original Gas in Place before production (usually quoted in billions or trillions of cubic feet)

IP

Initial production rate of a gas well – often much higher than the sustained production rate – usually quoted as millions or thousands of cubic feet per day (Mmcf/d or mcf/d)

Hydraulic Fracturing

Commonly referred to as fracing, this is the process where the reservoir rock is cracked using pressure and fluids to create a series of fractures in the rock through which the natural gas will flow to the wellbore

Multi-Stage Fracturing

The process of undertaking multiple fracture stimulations in the reservoir section where selected parts of the reservoir are isolated and fractured separately

Microseismic

The methods by which fracturing of the reservoir can be observed by geophysical methods to determine where the fractures occurred within the reservoir June 24, 2010

Accessing the Reservoir

Service Sector Workshop

 The fundamental purpose of drilling a natural gas wellbore is to intersect the wellbore and optimize the productivity from the wellbore  In unconventional reservoirs the ability of the gas to flow to the well is hindered due to lower permeability  To counter this lower productivity, drilling and stimulation techniques are used to maximize the amount of the reservoir exposed to the wellbore

 Techniques include:  Vertical well multi-zone stimulation  Horizontal wells  Multistage fracturing

Essentially all unconventional gas reservoirs require some form of improved access either through drilling or hydraulic fracturing

June 24, 2010

Drilling and Completion Technologies

Service Sector Workshop

Different types of drilling equipment and methodology are available dependent on reservoir depth, thickness and expected flow properties

Some choices include:

Coiled Tubing Drilling and multi-zone completions Horizontal Drilling Multi-Lateral Drilling

June 24, 2010

Drilling and Completion Technologies

Service Sector Workshop

Drilling Efficiencies and Savings have been achieved through:

 Speed of drilling using new bit technology (PDC bits achieve penetration rates of up to 80 m/hr)  Multiple drill string assemblies that reduce tripping time  Geosteering in real time in horizontal and multilateral wells  Automation of rig floor equipment eliminating additional manpower  Fit for purpose rigs that can move on site without teardown Eg. Range Resources operates two fit for purpose drilling rigs that can move to the next well location on a common pad with over 3000 m of drill pipe stacked on the derrick – rig move reduced from days to hours From Range Resources, 2010

June 24, 2010

Drilling and Completion Technologies Geosteering of horizontal wells in real time allows optimal reservoir penetration

Service Sector Workshop

Multiple well orientations either vertical or horizontal from single surface well pads minimizes footprint

courtesy Halliburton

June 24, 2010

Drilling and Completion Technologies

Service Sector Workshop

• Drilling of horizontal wells with the horizontal legs being up to 2500 m in length • Multi stage fracture stimulations using slick water and sand to essentially “create reservoir” in rock that would not have been considered reservoir quality previously

Zonal isolation packer systems in horizontal and multi-lateral wells allow for selective stimulation as well as production

courtesy Halliburton

June 24, 2010

Drilling and Completion Technologies

Service Sector Workshop

Horizontal Drilling/ Multi-Lateral Drilling

Side Laterals

Main Lateral

The Pinnate Drainage Pattern

June 24, 2010

Completion and Stimulation Techniques

Service Sector Workshop

Fracture stimulations are required for most Unconventional resource plays due to low permeabilities of the reservoirs Type of fracture stimulation used is defined by:  Depth and number of reservoirs to be stimulated  Reservoir quality  Type of wellbore (vertical versus horizontal)  Fluid sensitivity  Geomechanical properties of the reservoir  Availability of equipment and materials  Economic assessment of wellbore deliverability

June 24, 2010

Service Sector Workshop

Completion and Stimulation Techniques Fracture Stimulation Parameters  The main purpose of fracture stimulation is to create open pathways for fluid flow within the reservoir either by creation of fractures or intersection of existing fracture systems  Ideally the reservoir rock should be “brittle” so that it fractures easily  Mineral content of the shales will determine “fracability” of reservoir – ideally a silica rich shale is preferred

Sheared and slickensided fractures Open vertical fractures

From Hall, 2008

June 24, 2010

Completion and Stimulation Techniques

Service Sector Workshop

Typical coil tubing unit used for multi-zone fracture stimulation

Courtesy of Halliburton, 2009

June 24, 2010

Service Sector Workshop

Completion and Stimulation Techniques Light Weight Proppant Technology is Key

Before

After (10,000 psi)

High Velocity Nitrogen pumping under pressure Courtesy Stealth Ventures, 2008

June 24, 2010

Completion and Stimulation Techniques

Service Sector Workshop

Horizontal Wellbore and Multi-Lateral Wellbore Completions ď&#x192;&#x2DC; Commonly multi-stage fracture stimulations are conducted to optimize the amount of fracture energy entering into the wellbore ď&#x192;&#x2DC; The horizontal leg is broken into stages where fracture stimulation for each stage is isolated from the rest of the wellbore ď&#x192;&#x2DC;Fracture design for each stage within the horizontal leg is dependent on borehole logging indicators of gas concentration as well as natural fracture density

June 24, 2010

Service Sector Workshop

Completion and Stimulation Techniques

Application of Multi-Stage Fracing Critical to Unlocking Resource Potential Comparison of Frac Stages to Iniitial Well Productivity

 Cost of additional frac stages needs to be balanced against increase in production and EUR

16

1200000

14

1000000

12 800000

10 8

600000

6

400000

4 200000

2 0

Incremental Cost of Frac Stage ($$)

 Each additional frac potentially increases recoverable reserves by 0.5 to 1.5 Bcf

Incremental Cost of Frac Stage

Initial Production Rate (mmcf/d)

 Each additional frac increases initial well productivity by 0.5 to 1.5 mmcf/d

0 2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Number of Frac Stages IP low (mmcf/day)

IP high (mmcf/day)

Frac costs ($,000)

June 24, 2010

Completion and Stimulation Techniques

Service Sector Workshop

From Fairborne Energy, 2009

June 24, 2010

Drilling and Completion Technologies

Service Sector Workshop

Run vertical stimulation video

June 24, 2010

Drilling and Completion Technologies

Service Sector Workshop

Run horizontal CBM drilling video

June 24, 2010

How Do We Measure Success in Reservoir Stimulation

Service Sector Workshop

Micro-Seismic to Determine Effectiveness of Stimulation  Measures micro seismic events related to the propagation of fractures within the reservoir  Requires one or more observation wells to allow proper mapping of location geographically and vertically of microseismic events  Can be run independently or as permanent seismic arrays in field to be developed  Provides a 3D image of fracture propagation that can be measured in real time during the fracture stages  Allows fracture propagation trends to be identified and adjusted for additional stages so fractures can be contained within zone  Identifies areas of poor fracture generation or geological barriers to effective stimulation

June 24, 2010

How Do We Measure Success in Reservoir Stimulation

Service Sector Workshop

Run microseismic video

June 24, 2010

How Do We Measure Success in Reservoir Stimulation

Service Sector Workshop

Fracture microseismic events relative to orientation of wells in Barnett fairway illustrate:

ď&#x192;&#x2DC; Complex nature of natural fracture system that exists within reservoir (Figure A) ď&#x192;&#x2DC; Areas of limited fracture propagation that may represent areas of infill drilling for optimal reserve recovery (Figure B)

Figure A

Figure B

from Pinnacle Technologies

June 24, 2010

Completion and Stimulation Techniques

Service Sector Workshop

ď&#x192;&#x2DC; Multi-stage fracture stimulations are labor and equipment intensive that requires planning for wellsite activities as well as supply of frac materials (sand and water primarily)

ď&#x192;&#x2DC; Multi-stage fracture stimulations are costly and should be undertaken only after reservoir properties have been tested from vertical wellbores and core data

Courtesy Fairborne Energy, 2009

Courtesy Fairborne Energy, 2009

June 24, 2010

Gas Factory Ideology

Service Sector Workshop

 Optimization of Reservoir Production  Key Aspects of Unconventional Gas Development  Stages of Exploration and Development

 Economies of Scale and Economic Benefits

June 24, 2010

Service Sector Workshop

Optimization of Reservoir Production Understanding the Reservoir is Key to Optimizing Production and Reserve Recovery

This is achieved through continuous improvements and experimentation in drilling, completion and production techniques

From Southwestern Energy, 2009

June 24, 2010

Service Sector Workshop

Optimization of Reservoir Production Resource play development is a statistical play

Recognition that within the gas field there are going to be both high volume and low volume producers Rely on statistical average to achieve project economic return on investment Understanding reservoir properties will decrease the risk of completing low volume producing wells

From Southwestern Energy, 2009

June 24, 2010

Optimization of Reservoir Production

Service Sector Workshop

 Downspacing of horizontal wells has been instrumental in improving EUR for individual wells  EUR from infill wells up to 50 % of OGIP as compared to 10-20% from original spacing  Application of simul-fracs on multiple parallel horizontals wells may further increase recovery factor

June 24, 2010

Key Aspects of Unconventional Gas Development

Service Sector Workshop

Unconventional Gas Strategy is Critical to Success Understanding the Play  Reservoir Characterization  Resource Assessment  Formation Properties & Analogs Address The Resource Play Challenges  Which technologies, services or products are most appropriate  Operational Risk / Cost Assessment  Field Trials / Pilot

Build in Efficiency  Scale of operations is usually large  Remote areas may add significant cost  Bundling of Services, Concurrent / Continuous Operations

June 24, 2010

Service Sector Workshop

Stages of Exploration and Development 0 Stage 1: Identification of UCG Resource

1 Stage 2: Early Evaluation Drilling

2

3

4

5

20

Time (years)

Newfoundland Barnett Stage 3: Pilot Project Drilling

Haynesville Stage 4: Pilot Production Testing

Quebec Lowlands Nova Scotia New Brunswick

Horn River Basin

Fayetteville Woodford Montney

Alberta Plains

Pace of development is largely dependent on technical success and market conditions

Marcellus

Horn River Basin Alberta Plains

Stage 5: Commercial Development Project Reclamation

June 24, 2010

Stages of Exploration and Development

Service Sector Workshop

ď&#x192;&#x2DC; The slower rate at which the EUR is captured in unconventional reservoirs extends the economic break- even point, but the long-term ultimate recovery due to the size of the OGIP remains attractive compared to conventional reservoirs ď&#x192;&#x2DC; To achieve economic production of unconventional gas you need: high gas prices; preferably existing infrastructure, new and existing technologies that are available in sufficient quantity; and a competitive / incented environment in which to work

Life Cycle of an Unconventional Natural Gas Resource Development

From Shell E&P Technology, 2009

June 24, 2010

Economies of Scale and Economic Benefits

Service Sector Workshop

Resource Play Success is achieved through the adoption of a “Manufacturing Style” approach to commercial development Efficiency Controls Costs  Speed of Execution  Materials Management / Recycling  Risk Avoidance Strategies & Methods Logistics Costs Demand Innovation  Critical in Remote Areas

from E. Schmelzel, 2008

June 24, 2010

Economies of Scale and Economic Benefits

Service Sector Workshop

Cost savings can be achieved through a vertical integration business model which is particularly important in a competitive natural gas market

Companies such as Southwestern Energy and Range Resources have demonstrated significant savings on field development by integrating drilling, completion equipment, fracture fluids and proppants and midstream pipeline operations

Courtesy Southwest Energy, 2009

June 24, 2010

Economies of Scale and Economic Benefits

Service Sector Workshop

Key Elements of Manufacturing Ideology  Minimize completion time  Mitigate operational risk  Define synergies and economies of scale  Maximize EUR - completion methods which are adaptable to future recompletion capabilities reserves  Minimize Logistics Costs: Re-using water from flowback and production, innovative fluid handling & storage  Minimize Surface Impact & Costs: Pad drilling and completions, multi-lateral capability

 Creation of service sector alliances or entities to enable the timely supply of service sector equipment and materials

June 24, 2010

Module 3 North American Gas Market and its Impact on Western Canada

June 24, 2010

Workshop Outline – Module 3

Service Sector Workshop

Glossary of Terms OGIP

Original Gas in Place before production (usually quoted in billions or trillions of cubic feet)

Marketable Resources

The estimated amount of natural gas that can be recovered from the OGIP values using existing technology

IP

Initial production rate of a gas well – often much higher than the sustained production rate – usually quoted as millions or thousands of cubic feet per day (Mmcf/d or mcf/d)

F&D Costs

The finding and development costs that a company spends to develop the natural gas well or field

Royalties

The amount of $$ that companies pay to the owner of the oil and gas resources (usually the government)

NYMEX or AECO

Natural gas market hubs that establish baseline pricing for natural gas sold in North America

June 24, 2010

Workshop Outline – Module 3



Canada‟s Natural Gas Resource Base



North American Unconventional Gas Basins

Service Sector Workshop

 Competition from Developments in United States  North American Pipeline Infrastructure



Competitive Challenges Facing Western Canada



Competitiveness Opportunities

June 24, 2010

Service Sector Workshop

Canadaâ&#x20AC;&#x;s Natural Gas Resource Base

Total Gas In Place Resources 3915 Tcf ( 111x 1012 m3 )

692

1111

801 1311

Conventional (remaining)

NGC/CBM

Tight Gas

Shale Gas

Estimates from Petrel Robertson Resource Assessment Study completed for CSUG April 2010

June 24, 2010

Service Sector Workshop

Canada‟s Natural Gas Resource Base Conventional Projected Natural Gas In Place

Mackenzie- Beaufort

67 Western Arctic

44

Total

692 Tcf

(TCF – trillions of cubic feet)

NWT/Yukon

76 Labrador Shelf

24 Western Canada Sedimentary Basin 482

East Coast Onshore

41

Ontario

East Coast Offshore 81

5

June 24, 2010

Service Sector Workshop

Canada‟s Natural Gas Resource Base Arctic Islands NWT Cretaceous

Shale Gas Projected Natural Gas In Place Total

1111 Tcf

(TCF – trillions of cubic feet)

NWT Devonian Besa River Horn River Basin 500

Cordova Embayment 200 Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (Colorado Group only) 100

Maritimes 130 Utica 181 Ontario Paleozoic

June 24, 2010

Service Sector Workshop

Regional Shale Gas Resource Estimates (Tcf)

1200 Marketable Low Marketable High Gas In Place

ď&#x192;&#x2DC; No resource estimates 1000 have been made for Duvernay Fm in Alberta 800 or the Muskwa equivalent formations into Yukon or 600 NWT ď&#x192;&#x2DC; Colorado shale estimate is 400 considered conservative as limited exploration on deep 200 Colorado has been 0 completed to date

1111

500

200 170 68 75

181

100 30

42

14 4

7

343 130 49 11

128

June 24, 2010

Canadaâ&#x20AC;&#x;s Natural Gas Resource Base

Service Sector Workshop

Tight Gas Projected Natural Gas In Place Total Cambrian

1311 Tcf

(TCF â&#x20AC;&#x201C; trillions of cubic feet)

Chinkeh BC Deep Basin 187 Montney 632

Jean Marie 62

Deep Basin 430 Note: Montney estimate does not include extension of resource potential into Alberta

Albert

June 24, 2010

Service Sector Workshop

Regional Tight Gas Resource Estimates (Tcf)

1600 1400

Marketable Gas Low

1411

Marketable Gas High

No tight gas estimates have been made for Quebec or Maritimes

1200

Original Gas In Place

1000 800

* Resource estimate for Alberta Montney is based upon pers. com.

600 450

400 200 0

187 67 30

62 22 10

62 23 11

120 43 19

166 77

430

100 33 15

155

509

230

69

From CSUG Natural Gas Resources Assessment Study, 2010 June 24, 2010

Canadaâ&#x20AC;&#x;s Natural Gas Resource Base

Service Sector Workshop

Natural Gas from Coal Projected Gas In Place Total

801 Tcf

(TCF â&#x20AC;&#x201C; trillions of cubic feet)

British Columbia Basins 84

Western Canada Sedimentary Basin 638

Maritimes 79

June 24, 2010

Service Sector Workshop

Regional NGC Resource Estimates (Tcf)  Note marketable NGC for British Columbia has been constrained significantly due to concerns about access to resources

 Assessment does not include NGC potential in Yukon where potential is limited due to lack of infrastructure  Marketable resource potential for Maritimes is constrained by much of resource location (offshore)

Marketable Low Marketable High Gas In Place

900

801

800 700

636

600 500 400 300 84

200

129

8

0.2

100 4

0

79

2

117

3.6

27 0

3

34

June 24, 2010

Service Sector Workshop

Prospective Shale Gas Basins in United States

160 Tcf 76 Tcf

1500 Tcf

52 Tcf 717 Tcf 327 Tcf

23 Tcf From DOE, April 2009

June 24, 2010

Prospective Tight Gas Basins in United States

Service Sector Workshop

June 24, 2010

Pipeline Corridors for North American Gas Distribution

Service Sector Workshop

Major pipeline corridors in United States are being built to eliminate local bottlenecking in delivery of natural gas to the northeast market

ANTRIM MARCELLUS

NEW ALBANY

BARNETT

FAYETTEVILLE WOODFORD HAYNESVILLE

June 24, 2010

North American Gas Market and its Impact on Western Canada

Service Sector Workshop

In the past 3 years, shale gas production has increased by 6 Bcf/day while in 2008/09, demand destruction due to economic recession has reduced demand by as much as 2 Bcf/day 9

Daily Production (Bcf/d)

8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Jan „04

Jul „04

Antrim

Jan „05

Jul „05

Barnett

Jan „06

Jul „06

Fayetteville

Jan „07

Jul „07

Woodford

Jan „08

Jul „08

Haynesville

Jan „09

Marcellus

From Southwest Energy, 2009

June 24, 2010

North American Gas Market and its Impact on Western Canada

Service Sector Workshop

 Canadian Exports will continue to be challenged by lower cost natural gas produced in United States basins  Industry will react negatively through declining activity due to poor economics but there will be a lag from when activity declines and actual production declines

 Technological development has allowed the projected decline rates to be offset by improved productivity

Horizontal Drilling Activity in United States 2010

Drilling Activity in United States - 2010 From ARC Energy Charts, 2010

June 24, 2010

North American Gas Market and its Impact on Western Canada

Service Sector Workshop

 Many E&P companies are shifting their exploration focus to oil resource plays due to low market price for natural gas  Gas completions continue to stall and much of the shallow gas wells are re-completions rather than new drills  Abundant gas supply in United States coupled with continued horizontal drilling will continue to put downward pressure on natural gas prices including hedged contracts over the next few years (2-5 ?????)

Oil Well Completions in Canada -2010

Gas Well Completions in Canada - 2010 From ARC Energy Charts, 2010

June 24, 2010

North American Gas Market and its Impact on Western Canada

Service Sector Workshop

Higher Demand Cycle

Supply Glut - Lower Demand Cycle

Modified from Government of Nebraska website, 2010

June 24, 2010

Challenges to Western Canada Natural Gas Production

Service Sector Workshop

While Western Canada contains vast quantities of largely under-developed unconventional gas, the industry as a whole faces a number of challenges that negatively impact the competitiveness of the produced product  Pipeline tariffs to major markets  Distance and current tolls create a $0.50 to >$1.00 burden to producers  CDN $ exchange rate advantage has evaporated due to strength of Canadian $$  Rule of thumb was $0.01 differential between US$$ and CDN $$ translated into $0.06 - $0.07/mcf market price

 Finding and Development costs are higher due to weather related constraints  Additional costs to drill during winter months and spring break up  Royalty and Regulatory burdens negatively impact economics  While royalty changes in B.C. and Alberta have helped they still are not as competitive to some US jurisdictions

 Explorer composition and mobility of capital  Many of the major unconventional gas players in Western Canada have a diverse resource play portfolio that extends across North America allowing movement of capital to areas of economic advantage  Commitment by industry to one primary consumer market (US)

June 24, 2010

Barnett (Tier 3)

Mannville (CBM)

Piceance (Highlands)

Barnett (Tier 2)

Jean Marie (Tight Gas)

Alberta Deep Basin

Wattenberg (Core)

Montney (4 stage frac)

Woodford (Arkoma)

Raton (CBM)

Horseshoe Canyon

Alberta Shallow Gas

Powder River (CBM)

Jonah

Eagleford

Uinta (Shallow)

Fayetteville (2.2 Bcf)

Nora (CBM)

Piceance (Valley - Core)

Montney (8 stage frac)

(W. Texas Overthrust)

Pinedale (Flank)

Huron Shale

Barnett (Tier 1)

Woodford (Anadarko)

Horn River

Marcellus

Fayetteville (2.6 Bcf)

Pinedale (Crest)

Granite Wash (Horz.)

Haynesville

Deep Bossier

Challenges to Western Canada Natural Gas Production Service Sector Workshop

Required NYMEX Natural Gas Strip for 10% IRR

$10

$8

$6

$4

$2

$0

Source: Morgan Stanley September 14, 2009

June 24, 2010

Competitiveness of Western Canada Natural Gas

Service Sector Workshop

Economic success in remote locations such as Horn River will require technological advances as well as logistical efficiencies Courtesy of Nexen, 2010

Efficiencies achieved through multiple wells from single pads allow for centralization of equipment and stockpiling of materials and consumables for extended drilling programs  One drill pad may hold as many as 18 wells allowing development of 3 sections of land  250 to 300 fracture stimulations from a single pad – equipment on site for 2 to 3 months

June 24, 2010

Competitiveness of Western Canada Natural Gas Challenge:

Service Sector Workshop

Improve overall productivity and/or economics for the entire play â&#x20AC;&#x201C; not just the â&#x20AC;&#x153;sweet spot high productivity areasâ&#x20AC;?

Recognition that within the gas field there are going to be both high volume and low volume producers

- Barnett shale completions

Rely on statistical average to achieve project economic return on investment Understanding reservoir properties will decrease the risk of completing low volume producing wells Improved productivity will allow marginal wells to achieve economic thresholds Modified from Southwestern Energy, 2009

June 24, 2010

Competitiveness of Western Canada Natural Gas

Service Sector Workshop

Competitiveness within the natural gas market where there is no current control over market price and transportation costs can be influenced by 4 major variables:  Improvement of well performance either through production volumes or estimated ultimate recovery (EUR)  Well performance can be in the form of IP rates to slower decline rates

 Improvement of well costs from cradle to grave  Reduction of development costs through logistical efficiencies and synergies are critical to economically successful development  Savings achieved through development in areas that have established infrastructure  Creation and deployment of new technologies that will allow unique unconventional gas opportunities in Western Canada to be developed  Focus R&D efforts on technologies that will positively impact Western Canadian unconventional gas deposits

 Establish alternative markets outside of North America to realize optimal value for natural gas produced

June 24, 2010

Service Sector Workshop

Competitiveness of Western Canada Natural Gas Well Cost Evolution ($C)

Production Evolution

Deep Basin – (vertical wells)

Montney - Per Interval

$MM

$MM/Frac

Horn River MMcfe/d

1.50

7.5 6.2

11.7

5.9 4.9

9.1

0.95

4.7

0.79

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F

0.37

2007

2008

0.61

2009

2010F

Horn River – Per Interval $MM/Frac

NGC – Well costs $MM 0.40

2006

0.65

4.6

2008

2009

2010F

Montney MMcfe/d

2.0 0.36

3.9 1.0

4.7

5.3

3.7

2.1 0.6 2006 2007 2008* 2009 2010F

2008

2009

2010F

2008

2009

2010F

Modified from CAPP, 2010

June 24, 2010

Competitiveness of Western Canada Natural Gas

Service Sector Workshop

New emerging markets for Canadian Natural Gas Fleet Vehicles and Heavy Trucks

International Exports

Source: CNGVA, 2010

 If 5% of heavy vehicles in Canada operated on natural gas Gas consumption would increase by 53 Bcf or 1.5% of current domestic gas use  Greenhouse gas emissions from heavy diesel vehicles would decrease by 795 kilotonnes per year

Source: Apache Corp, 2010

 5 mtpa export capacity by 2014  Significant potential for increased sales of Western Canada gas at prices higher than current North American price structure

June 24, 2010

Service Sector Workshop

Competitiveness of Western Canada Natural Gas Projected Supplies of Natural Gas in United States

 United States conventional production continues to decline from 5 Tcf/yr to < 3 Tcf/yr by 2030  Continued decline of imports from primarily Canada  Projected growth of unconventional gas to fill the gap  Moderate to slow growth of overall natural gas demand until after 2020 30

History

TCF/year

25

Projections

20 Unconventional 15 10

Non-associated offshore Alaska

Associated-dissolved Net imports

5 Non-associated conventional

0 1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 modified from EIA, 2009

June 24, 2010

Module 4 Opportunities and Challenges

June 24, 2010

Opportunities and Challenges

Service Sector Workshop

Glossary of Terms NGC

Natural gas from coal or commonly referred to as coalbed methane (CBM)

Co-mingling

Production of natural gas from multiple vertical zones within a single borehole

Hybrid well

Natural gas production from both coals and other non-coal reservoirs such as sandstone or shale within a single borehole

Hydraulic Fracturing

Commonly referred to as fracing, this is the process where the reservoir rock is cracked using pressure and fluids to create a series of fractures in the rock through which the natural gas will flow to the wellbore

June 24, 2010

Opportunities and Challenges

Service Sector Workshop

 Natural Gas from Coal  Current Developments  Opportunities for Growth

 Shale Gas  Current Development  Opportunities for Growth

 Critical Elements for Success

June 24, 2010

Where is Unconventional Gas Located In Alberta?

Service Sector Workshop

Areas of Unconventional Gas Exploration and Development in Alberta

Tight Gas Sands and Carbonates Natural Gas from Coal

Shale Gas

Gas Hydrates

June 24, 2010

Natural Gas from Coal Opportunities

Service Sector Workshop

Natural Gas from Coal (NGC) or Coalbed Methane (CBM) still represent a significant growth area for central Alberta Over 14,000 wells are currently producing natural gas from coal Continued development of the Horseshoe Canyon play and possible expansion of Ardley NGC development to the west as part of the new co-mingling regulations will be major contributors North American gas price will still put pressure on operators to lower operating costs to be competitive Source: ERCB ST98-2010 June 24, 2010

Natural Gas from Coal Opportunities

Service Sector Workshop

Source: ERCB ST98-2010 June 24, 2010

Natural Gas from Coal Opportunities

Service Sector Workshop

 Total number of NGC well completions for 2009 was 1848  98% of these wells were Horseshoe Canyon Formation vertical co-mingled production  Of the 1811 Horseshoe Canyon wells, nearly 70% were re-completions of existing vertical wells  Mannville NGC production accounted for 15% of total natural gas production but only 3% of new connections  Changes to Alberta royalty system have created a competitive environment for “hybrid” NGC wells even in a low gas price setting

Source: ERCB ST98-2010 June 24, 2010

Natural Gas from Coal Opportunities

Service Sector Workshop

Source: ERCB ST98-2010 June 24, 2010

Natural Gas from Coal Opportunities

Service Sector Workshop

Source: ERCB ST98-2010 June 24, 2010

Continued Improvement to Maintain Competitiveness

Service Sector Workshop

Source: Ember Resources, 2010 June 24, 2010

Service Sector Workshop

Shale Gas Potential of Canada Original Gas In Place (Tcf) 130 181

500

100

Bowser Basin Colorado Group Jurassic and Paleozoic Devonian Shales

200

Cordova Embayment 200 Tcf Horn River Basin 500 Tcf

Colorado 100 Tcf

Maritimes Basin 130 Tcf Utica and Lorraine Shale Basin “Quebec Lowlands” 181 Tcf

From CSUG Natural Gas Resource Assessment Study, 2010 June 24, 2010

Colorado Group Unconventional Gas Play

Service Sector Workshop

June 24, 2010

AGE (Ma)

Colorado Group Unconventional Gas Play

GE

Service Sector Workshop

FORMATION

LEA PARK

84

U. COLORADO

ONIAN

1st WHITE SPEC

87

ACIAN

MEDICINE HAT EQN.

89

ONIAN

93

ANIAN

COLORADO GROUP

basal U COLORADO

2nd WHITE SPEC

BELLE FOURCHE

FISH SCALE MKR

97-99

IAN VIKING

Gas Migration

WESTGATE

Gas migrates from the gas charged shales into the silt and sand laminae which allows up to five perforation entry points to be picked over the entire Colorado Group Shales

Gas Migration

MILK RIVER EQN

Hundreds of feet of Gas Charged Shales

ANIAN

JOLI FOU

MANNVILLE

Source Stealth Ventures Ltd

June 24, 2010

Colorado Group Unconventional Gas Play

Service Sector Workshop

Application of technology to address swelling clays and fracing issues and will be critical to achieve optimal production volumes

High velocity nitrogen fracing

Light Weight Proppant

Before

After (10,000 psi)

Source Stealth Ventures Ltd

June 24 , 2010

Emerging Opportunities – Shale Gas

Service Sector Workshop

 Deep Colorado Group has thermogenic potential for shale gas resources  New data released by AGS on reservoir characterization will enable target areas to be defined  Maturity increases from east to west possibly increasing the “brittleness” of the shale formations

Source: Geological Atlas of Western Canada Sedimentary Basin June 24, 2010

Emerging Opportunities â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Tight Gas

Service Sector Workshop

Distribution of major tight gas formations in southern Alberta plains

June 24, 2010

Western Canada Natural Gas Challenges

Service Sector Workshop

Development of unconventional gas is a technology play. Industry continues to make advances in technology development and deployment that allows improvement in productivity and EUR as well as opening up opportunities in new basins (ie. Deep Bossier) The impact of application of these new technologies will create an environment where natural gas will remain an abundant â&#x20AC;&#x153;low costâ&#x20AC;? energy supply for the next 2-3 years Companies will need to look at new market strategies as well as corporate strategic direction to ensure sustainability and growth in the re-defined North American natural gas marketplace

June 24, 2010

The Final Comment

Service Sector Workshop

So what have we learned this morning?

One thing for sure --- INFORMATION OVERLOAD But here are some key takeaways:  Canada and Alberta has enough natural gas to supply our needs as well as our export levels for over 100 years  This abundance of natural gas in North America will continue to keep prices at the lower level for the near future due to oversupply into the market  Companies exploring and producing natural gas in Western Canada will need to become the low cost operator if they are to compete in the North American market  Economies of scale, manufacturing ideology and partnerships with the service sector will be critical to achieve this goal

June 24, 2010

Unconventional Gas in Canada Critical Elements for Technical and Economic Success

Thank You for Your Attention!

F M Dawson, President