AUTUMN STATEMENT N OV E M B E R 2 016
IT’S HAMMOND TIME The air was thick with anticipation in the Commons as Philip Hammond stood up to deliver his first Autumn Statement as Chancellor of the Exchequer. Government insiders were enthusiastically pre-briefing a ‘reset moment’ in Conservative messaging, while anxious Tory MPs were pondering – not too subtly – whether the new Chancellor could fill his predecessor’s rather big shoes. The stakes were high: the old order had successfully steered the Conservative Party to two General Election victories, while business – which has so far been kept at arm’s length – has been chomping at the bit to finally receive some clear policy direction post-Brexit. They needn’t have worried. Within minutes, thin lips had spread into wry smiles. The Labour benches were stunned into silence by the sound of Tory tanks rolling relentlessly onto their lawn. Hammond clearly delighted in putting some long-awaited flesh on the bones of “a country that works for everyone” as he tactfully sidestepped the OBR’s gloomy forecasting to announce plans to scrap achieving the Budget surplus. Instead he announced a new fiscal charter that would freeze welfare cuts and support those who are just about managing (“JAMs”, apparently). What will business make of it all? A new National Productivity Fund to prioritise infrastructure and innovation, cuts to corporation tax and extra money for research & development will all be seen as a welcome sign of confidence in Great Britain PLC as we gear up for Brexit. The decision to axe the Autumn Statement in favour of one annual fiscal event effectively halves businesses’ annual opportunities to secure policy change, but the loosening of the Exchequer’s purse strings may make engagement more fruitful in the long-term.
Indeed, there was something for more or less everyone as the Chancellor rattled off a list of measures for the NHS and emergency services, savers, small-business owners, first-time buyers, and women’s & military charities. Drivers were given their seventh fuel duty freeze in a row and City Deals were awarded to Scotland and Wales. Meanwhile, a conspicuously diminished George Osborne looked on wistfully from the backbenches. There will be those who argue that the old narrative wasn’t broken enough to deserve fixing. It is certainly true that the Conservative Party secured its first majority in thirty years based on a mandate to carry on with responsible austerity and finish the job of “fixing the roof while the sun is shining”. But we might ask the question of whether the Brexit vote and the perception of the new Tory Government lurching to the right (or perhaps to the past) demands that Ministers present a new, more generous vision. After all, with a Labour Party that seems determined to drive itself to oblivion, what’s the worst that could happen? To all those, myself included, who feared for a Conservative Party moving away from its Long-Term Economic Plan, the message today was clear. Stop, relax: it’s Hammond time.
Emily Poole, Account Director Emily was a Special Adviser in David Cameron’s Government.
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