Boris Resigns - An Edelman Analysis

BORIS QUITS 9th July 2018

Will leads the Edelman Public Affairs practice in the UK and has extensive experience at the top of Government, after five years as communications director, official spokesman and chief political advisor to Foreign Secretary and former Mayor of London Boris Johnson. He spent four years at City Hall where he oversaw communications for the 2012 London Olympics, and led Mr Johnson's transition team at the Foreign Office, as well as advising him on communications and policy during the EU referendum campaign.

Will Walden Managing Director, Public Affairs

Will provides senior counsel to a range of clients on government policy and communications strategy. For more information, please get in touch via will.walden@edelman.com.

ALL BETS ARE OFF… A couple of hours ago I wrote that the Foreign Secretary’s decision on whether or not to resign probably rested on what “blowing the bloody doors off” might entail. If it were simply chaos, most people felt he’d stay put. Well now we know otherwise. Boris Johnson’s tenure as Foreign Secretary is over. His tenure as standard bearer of either the hardest possible Brexit or indeed a no-deal Brexit has just begun. Clearly he felt that selling the Chequers deal he protested so vehemently against on Friday, was indeed “like polishing a turd.” So he decided not to polish.

This is a huge moment that’s taken many in Westminster by surprise, even after David Davis quit late last night. Even Johnson was torn as late as this morning about next steps but I understand after taking soundings he felt, just like he did in 2016, that if the deal didn’t do what it said on the tin, then

How would a leadership challenge work?

Under the terms of the Conservative Party's governing body, the 1922 Committee, a leadership contest can be triggered in two ways: if 15% of Conservative MPs (48 out of 317) write to the Graham Brady, Chairman of the Committee, saying they no longer have confidence in the leader of the Conservative Party, or if he or she resigns.

9 July 2018

he was out. In the last hour he gathered his three special advisors at his London residence – 1 Carlton Gardens – to compose his resignation letter.

Was his calculation that a rump of his party that already despise him wouldn’t thank him for keeping the peace anyway? Or was it simply that the deal was unsellable? Or perhaps a bit of both? My understanding is that after informing Number 10 of his decision, Downing Street decided to pre-empt his resignation letter by announcing the news themselves. If Mrs May’s grip on power appeared tenuous before, it looks impossibly difficult now. She faces the fight of her life at the 1922 Committee meeting at 5pm this evening, where she will have to face down the loss of Boris, by far the biggest beast to quit over Brexit. This is now about leadership of Brexit, the Tory Party and the country.

In the event the 15% threshold is reached, a vote of confidence will be triggered in which May would have to secure a simple majority of MPs (159). According to media reports, May has recently said she would not resign and would be content to win by a margin of a single vote. If May were to win any vote of confidence she would be guaranteed immunity from another challenge for a year.

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelmaneditions.com | 020 3047 2177 | @edelmanUK

WHAT IT MEANS FOR BREXIT CAN MAY SURVIVE? The resignations of Johnson, Davis and Baker signal the end of the pretence that current Government policy is compatible Brexiteers’ red lines. The question is whether they can muster enough support to force a leadership challenge, and if so, put up a credible candidate – with a plausible alternative Brexit plan which takes account of the fact the UK is facing the prospect of crashing out without a deal. It appears increasingly apparent that for Boris and the other Brexiteers, this would be preferable to a softer Brexit of the sort outlined at Chequers.

For the time being the answer to that question is probably no, but the painstakingly constructed Chequers compromise is almost certainly going to be

rejected by the EU without further UK concessions, as indeed Davis noted in his letter. If for many of the more pragmatic Brexiteers Chequers was about as far as they could go, they could still end up facing a similar dilemma to Davis when the EU demands more on free movement, budget payments and the role of the ECJ. It is sometimes easy to forget that these are all longer term questions which can be fudged and negotiated in detail during the transition period once the UK has formally left. The key pressing challenge is finding a mutually acceptable Irish border backstop – without this there can be no orderly withdrawal agreement and therefore no transition.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR LABOUR As has just been seen in the House of Commons, the resignation of Boris Johnson has brought Labour MPs together as Corbyn was cheered delivering some unexpectedly good lines.

A dislike of Boris Johnson is one of the few things that truly unites all Labour MPs, and in their minds this is yet further proof of a chaotic and divided government. So Labour MPs and members of all stripes are taking this opportunity to revel in the government’s misfortune.

This will further underline the Labour attack on the Conservatives that they are a government in meltdown, with a Prime Minister unable to deliver, and lacking in authority. As Corbyn has often said, if May cannot deliver then she should make way for someone who can, by which he presumably means himself.

Any path Corbyn could furrow to Number 10 was always going to be paved by a Tory collapse, and so if Jeremy Corbyn does end up as Prime Minister, it could be David Davis and Boris Johnson that he has to thank.

But while all Labour MPs will be enjoying the Tories discomfort, there will be a certain degree of “careful what you wish for” from moderates, aware of what a Corbyn government could entail, both for them and the country.

Corbyn faced down his Cabinet and Parliamentary opponents back in 2016 (seeing over 100 front bench resignations) and came out stronger than ever. Perhaps the Prime Minister may seek to follow his example, but Conservative members may not quite have the same enthusiasm for their similarly isolated leader as Labour members had for theirs in 2016.

LATEST STAKEHOLDER REACTION DONALD TUSK PRESIDENT OF THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL

Politicians come and go but the problems they have created for people remain. I can only regret that the idea of Brexit has not left with Davis and Johnson. But...who knows?

NOTE ON SUCCESSOR? WES STREETING MP LABOUR

It’s now clear that the Government will only get a Brexit deal through with the support of opposition MPs, but how could we possibly vote for a deal which is, effectively, a soft Brexit for goods and a hard Brexit for services?

9July 2018

IAN BLACKFORD MP LEADER OF THE SNP IN THE COMMONS The foreign secretary should never have had the opportunity to resign. He should have been sacked months ago as a national embarrassment.

RUTH DAVIDSON MSP SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVE LEADER

The Prime Minister made clear this weekend that collective Cabinet responsibility must be observed on Brexit. If individual Ministers can’t sign up to that, then it is only right that they are no longer part of the Government.

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelmaneditions.com | 020 3047 2177 | @edelmanUK