conservative party conference review | october 2018
a pitch for the long term
taking back control conservative conference review
Craig Woodhouse Senior Director, Edelman
Lucy Thomas Senior Director, Edelman
Fiona Falconer Account Manager
Elliot Langley Senior Account Executive
may survives tory battle but brexit war looms Theresa May buried the ghost of her disastrous conference speech a year ago by dancing on to the stage in Birmingham. She walked off an hour later more secure in her position than at any point over the past 12 months – having felt confident enough to take on Jeremy Corbyn, Boris Johnson, hardline Brexiteers and even her own Chancellor as she tried to take back control. The PM sought to calm Tory nerves about the apparent popularity of Corbyn’s socialist Labour platform by setting out her vision of a “moderate, patriotic Government” – although the fact this was necessary shows how Labour has shifted the battleground. Attempting to recapture the centre ground, she combined robust attacks on Corbyn and his policies with an appeal to Labour moderates. But she also conceded that the Tories needed a policy response to voter concerns Corbyn has tapped into. Amid constant talk of a leadership challenge, and just 24 hours after Boris Johnson bowled into town and wowed critics of the PM’s Brexit plan, May told activists they should unite around her proposals or risk no Brexit at all. The verdict after the speech was that she had bought herself some breathing room – but with an EU council meeting just a fortnight away, that could all change again very soon. EDELMAN | SOUTHSIDE | 105 VICTORIA STREET | SW1e 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 020 3047 2000 | @edelmanuk
The Conservative conference felt like a strange pause in the Brexit process – four days in Birmingham where the party could put forward some policy ideas before getting back to the business of exiting the EU. Much of the talk was of course about the PM’s Chequers plan and whether it can survive, but the Government also tried to take on Labour in the battle of ideas and present some policies to implement post-Brexit - although it has to be said that radical alternatives were largely absent. Theresa May framed this in response to Corbynism, saying the party could not just criticise Labour but had to address voters’ concerns after years of sluggish wage growth. The PM put this into three buckets as she announced a series of new policies, and many other ministers had already unveiled initiatives in the same areas. Firstly on broken markets, May’s flagship announcement was to scrap council borrowing limits related to housing in an attempt to get more homes built. She described the housing crisis as “the biggest domestic policy challenge of our generation”, with a commitment to building 300,000 homes by the mid-2020s and a new Homes Ombudsman to be set up. May also warned companies imposing “loyalty penalties” – where long-standing customers pay more than newcomers – that the Government has them in their sights. Elsewhere train customers suffering delays will get automatic compensation, and restaurant workers will get to keep all tips. On the cost of living, May announced that fuel duty will be frozen for a ninth year – building on moves to cut income tax for low earners and increase the minimum wage. While popular with motorists, this is an expensive policy the Treasury hates. But the PM asserted herself over Philip Hammond by pre-empting his Budget to unveil it. In another move that risks angering the Treasury, May also announced an “end to austerity”. Next year’s spending review will see spending on public services increase alongside a vow to keep debt falling. Emblematic of this is the huge cash increase for the NHS, which the PM announced would in part go on a new cancer strategy to help 55,000 people live five years longer after diagnosis than is currently the case. Other significant announcements in Birmingham included a post-Brexit immigration policy that treats migrants from all countries the same. High-skilled migrants will be given priority in an attempt to curb low-skilled migration and encourage firms to invest in home-grown talent, though the final shape will depend on any Brexit deal. Ministers plan to consult on forcing large companies to publish parental leave and pay policies, the apprenticeship levy is being overhauled, and internet giants could be hit with a new Photo: Conservatives Instagram Digital Services Tax.
A happy hall in Birmingham is just one half of the story. The coming weeks will be crucial in the Brexit talks, with significant UK concessions expected which will further rile Brexiteers. These include continuing UK alignment with customs rules on goods, and permitting goods checks between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. As a former Vote Leave campaigner, Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab warned in a fringe meeting that any extension of a customs union would need to be strictly time limited in order to secure Parliamentary approval. Europe getting closer to a deal? The first moment of truth comes next Wednesday in Brussels, earmarked for the EU to publish its summary position on the future trading terms. This could yet be delayed, but will serve as a gauge to the likely fireworks at the European Council summit the following week. Irish officials have come out to say that keeping the whole of the UK in a customs union “would resolve” the Irish border issue. With Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar meeting Barnier today it remains to be seen whether the rest of the EU will agree, but the country who would see most downside from any border friction has significant clout, and may be prepared to use it. Paris, however, maintain that, for the EU “no deal would be better than a bad deal” if the deal means undermining the integrity of the EU. While Germany has called for a “resolute position” from the UK given the numerous Brexit positions expressed around the conference, and urged clarity over UK demands while repeating the EU aversion to “cherry picking”. Back to Parliament in November – but what will they vote for? When it comes to the crunch vote, the question is will the numbers add up? The future trade terms will be broad brush strokes, so ambiguity will help to garner maximum support. The more ambiguous this is the more detailed and binding the backstop measures must be. The backstop will likely mean adherence to EU rules and deep customs arrangements, which could lose Conservative Brexiteers, but possibly attract some Labour rebels. Corbyn’s offer to support a “sensible deal” that protects jobs, includes a customs union and no hard border in Ireland may not have been matched by May in her speech, but by stressing the protection of “hundreds of thousands of jobs”, she indicated that she was listening. Next month we’ll find out whether No 10’s approach - relying on a workable backstop to keep the DUP happy, and fear of a no deal for Remain-backers, or no Brexit at all for Leave-supporters - has worked.
how they reacted Robert Peston
James Forsyth
@Peston
@JGForsyth
This is arguably most important speech given by @theresa_may. She plants Conservative Party firmly in centre of politics, to fill the space she says @jeremycorbyn’s Labour has vacated. It shows, as I said on @NewsAtTen last night, she has no intention of quitting any time soon
May delivers one of her best speeches, and will send activists home in better heart than they expected this morning. But European Council in two weeks time means Brexit will soon reassert itself
Torsten Bell
Carolyn Fairbairn
@TorstenBell
@cbicarolyn
It’s hard to say austerity is over for ‘just about managing’ families while their benefits are being cut over the next few years. But today’s speech was a sign that the political will necessary to maintain austerity is ebbing away.
@theresa_may wants to embrace new era of concrete collaboration between enterprise & politics. This cannot be final word, key policies immigration, tax reform & skills need to be developed together to ensure UK grows & everyone feels the benefit. #cpc18
edelman public affairs: helping you act with certainty Whether the Brexit endgame or the battle to replace to Theresa May, Edelman’s public affairs team offers first-class intelligence, the smartest analysis and expertise, senior strategic counsel and the most efficient execution to help you navigate the political landscape. Drawn from across the political spectrum and with years of experience in Westminster and the media, our team is led by Managing Director Will Walden – former Director of Communications and External Affairs to Boris Johnson at London City Hall. It includes a specialist Brexit Unit led by former Remain campaign Deputy Director Lucy Thomas, and political communications specialism headed by the Prime Minister’s former Press Secretary Craig Woodhouse. To find out how Edelman can help you, please contact craig.woodhouse@edelman.com
EDELMAN | SOUTHSIDE | 105 VICTORIA STREET | SW1e 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 020 3047 2000 | @edelmanuk
conservative party conference review | october 2018
brexit: the calm before the storm