March 2017
After months of speculation, this is it. The biggest divorce ever attempted is underway. The Prime Minister’s letter was delivered to an awaiting and emotional EU Council President Donald Tusk in Brussels, noting it as a “sad day” for the EU. There were few new details of substance, but as ever, it is the tone – and what is implied that is so important. Constructive, respectful talks Both in the letter and the Commons, Theresa May was at pains to make clear that Britain’s approach would be conducted “constructively and respectfully”, and she admitted that there would be consequences for Britain outside of Europe. That included a rare admission that the UK and businesses here would have to abide by rules and regulations we will no longer shape, and that “we accept that.” Both the Prime Minister and Chancellor were clear to say that the UK knows it cannot “cherry-pick.” Security is our weapon There were 11 mentions of ‘security’, seen by many as the UK’s strongest bargaining chip, and a surprisingly overt link made between a failure to reach a trade deal, to a corresponding weakening of the UK’s role in the helping secure the region as a leader in the fight against crime and terrorism. This has already been seen by some on the continent as a less-than-subtle threat that the UK knows it has security clout and isn’t afraid to use it. Divorce and future deal – side-by-side or one-by-one? If there’s to be any chance of agreeing both divorce terms and future arrangements in the two year Art 50 talks, these could have to be negotiated in parallel. The letter repeated the Government’s phrase on that sequencing: “we believe it is necessary to agree the terms of our future partnership alongside those of our withdrawal from the EU.” But from the EU’s side, there is reluctance to agree to this – a European Parliament leaked memo was categorical that this was a non-starter and comments from Angela Merkel implied the same.
Brexit timeline - What happens now? • 30th March – UK Government publishes the Great Repeal Bill – transposing all EU legislation directly into UK law in order to gradually scrap or amend it bit by bit • 31st March – EU’s official initial response to May’s Article 50 letter in the form of draft guidelines issued by European Council President Donald Tusk • 4th April – European Parliament’s declaration on Brexit • 23rd April – First round of French Presidential election • 27th April – EU27 European Affairs Ministers meeting to prep ahead of EU leaders’ meeting • 29th April – EU27 leaders meet in Brussels to discuss their position in greater detail and to formally adopt the negotiation guidelines • Early May – Negotiations to formally get underway • 7th May – Second round of French Presidential election • 17th May – Queen’s speech – the government ought to flesh out its legislative agenda across wide range of policy areas where Brexit will have material impact, e.g. agriculture • 24th September - German parliament election possible change of government • 1st October – Conservative Party Conference • 23rd May 2018 (at the latest) – Italian parliamentary election • October 2018 – Soft deadline to have terms finalised in order for ratification across EU member states and by European Parliament • End March 2019 – End of Article 50 process (unless extended by mutual consent) • May/June 2019 - European Parliament election
EU unites – it’s our interests that count From the EU’s side, Tusk’s sense of sadness was quickly replaced by a circling of the wagons and an insistence that the unity of the 27 members was now the main priority. The leader of the centre right EPP group in the European Parliament went even further, saying “EU has done everything to keep the British. From now on, only the interests of the remaining 440 million Europeans count for us.” Lucy was the Deputy Director of Britain Stronger In Europe, the campaign to remain in the EU Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK