Edelman General Election Update #1 by Edelman

EDELMAN ELECTION UPDATE

DAYS TO GO

OVERVIEW It is over 40 years since the outcome of a General Election has been so uncertain this close to polling day. Long-held electoral assumptions about the three main political parties no longer hold.

election campaign unfolds and election day draws near, any political risk that has been created is mitigated. This will be achieved through an awareness not only of the events that could influence the electoral outcome but also of the policy, political and constitutional implications of the different scenarios that could emerge in the days and weeks after polling day.

Labour and the Conservatives, combined, may receive a little over 60% of the vote, compared to the 75% they enjoyed in both 1974 Elections; the Liberal Democrats, on the other hand, stand to lose at least half their current parliamentary representation and are no longer the principal recipient of protest votes. The SNP could well become the third largest party in Westminster and thereby destroy Labour’s political hegemony in Scotland. Meanwhile, UKIP and the Green Party continue to poll higher than ever before.

Therefore, throughout the Election campaign, Edelman will provide this crucial knowledge through a variety of means including a regular series of briefings, of which this is the first. These will provide essential information and insights on the party manifestos, the campaign trail and the possible arrangements and deals that may emerge in the coming days and weeks.

This uncertainty makes it difficult for plans to be made and business-critical decisions to be taken with any confidence for the medium and long terms. Therefore it is vital that as the

ELECTION WRAP-UP

David Robertson

THE CAMPAIGN IN NUMBERS

0.4%

Gap between Labour and the Conservatives according to PoliticalBetting’s latest Polling Average (03.03.2015)

It’s not a popularity contest?

11,200

Number of marginal voters Conservative Chairman Grant Shapps claims the party needs to swtich in order to win a majority Ahead of an election which has seasoned pundits scratching their heads, Edelman has prepared a short wrap-up of the key takeaways from the last few weeks of campaigning. Managing Director of Edelman’s UK Public Affairs team, Gurpreet Brar, provides his take on how close the current contest really is and the challenges both Labour and the Conservatives are likely to encounter as they seek to scrape over the victory line. Polling Expert Harry Spencer provides a guide to the latest numbers and what to watch out for as we head towards the big day. Meanwhile, media specialists Ben Fenton and Jo Sheldon provide expert analysis on the factors that are making this election so tough to call. Click the link above to view the full Edelman wrap-up.

$2bn

Amount spent during 2013

German Federal Elections

Jamie Oliver Facebook likes

70,659

Amount spent during 2012 US Presidential Election

€84m

3,549,725

Ed Miliband Facebook likes

484,185

David Cameron Facebook likes

£31m Amount spent during 2010 UK General Election

129,272

Nigel Farage Facebook likes

89,313

Nick Clegg Facebook likes

NHS

EDELMAN ELECTION UPDATE POLLING REPORT

£2bn of extra funding for the NHS every year until 2020, with a further £1.2bn in funding for GP Services over the next four years.

KEY DATES IN MARCH

With two months to go, there is almost nothing between the Conservatives and Labour, with Labour perhaps hanging on to a very small lead. It is notable that despite much of the sound and fury of the election campaign, support for both has hardly moved in months – the hope of both will be that voters just aren’t tuning in yet rather than that they don’t like what they are hearing. The most notable change this month has been a slide in UKIP support. This may be the result of more critical coverage, especially from the right leaning press, or could just as easily be due to a lack of press attention. Either way, UKIP’s Teflon quality seems to be on the wane, although they can take comfort UK Polling Report Polling Average from the fact their vote share seems to have a (04.03.2015) floor of about 10%. While smaller parties normally get marginalised in the campaign, the fact that UKIP have major party status from Ofcom means Green 6% they shouldn’t struggle for attention. Meanwhile, Lib the SNP surge was recently confirmed by Dem 8% Ashcroft polling, underlining the centrality of Scotland to the election outcome. Stemming the Labour UKIP losses is absolutely central to Labour’s hopes of 33% 15% being the largest party and embodies the wider strategic dilemma the party faces: how to keep left-leaning voters drawn to the SNP and Greens Conservatives 32% onside while also winning over defectors from the Conservatives and UKIP.

Harry Spencer

HIGHLIGHT AND LOWLIGHTS Esther McVey for PM? In an interview with ITV’s Loose Women programme Employment Minister Esther McVey conceded that she would like to become Prime Minister. Her admission was greeted with applause by the studio audience, but first she will need to hold her Wirral West constituency in May where she is defending a majority of just 2,436. “Brain fade” turns Green leader red with embarrassment Green leader Natalie Bennett came a cropper in an interview with LBC radio’s Nick Ferrari. Asked about her party’s housing policy, she failed to answer questions about how much it would cost or how she would find the money. Punctuated by excruciatingly long pauses and coughing fits, it’s been suggested that the interview is the worst one ever given by a party leader. “I think you are being a bit ridiculous right now” Shadow Business Secretary Chuka Umunna took exception to being quizzed about the Government’s letter to mosques after the Charlie Hebdo attack. Pressed rather directly by Sky’s Dermot Murnaghan, he abruptly departed the studio.

S 7

RCP ANNUAL CONFERENCE

Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt and Labour’s Shadow Health Secretary Andy Burnham will speak at the annual meeting of the Royal College of Physicians. With the future of the NHS a key election battleground, both can be expected to stake out their Parties’ key themes on health policy.

LIBERAL DEMOCRAT SPRING CONFERENCE

The Liberal Democrats will open their Spring Conference in Liverpool, one of the many northern cities where the party has seen its local government base decimated in recent years. Nick Clegg and Liberal Democrat Ministers will look to use the Conference to galvanise the party faithful ahead of a difficult election campaign.

BUDGET 2015

George Osborne will deliver his final Budget before the General Election. The Chancellor will be under pressure to stake out clear blue water between the Conservatives and Labour, but his room for manoeuvre is likely to be limited.

FINAL PMQS

The Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition will clash for the last time before voters go to the polls in May. Both David Cameron and Ed Miliband will be eager to boost the morale of their backbenchers and an encounter high on point scoring and low on policy should be expected.

PARLIAMENT DISSOLVED

Both Houses of Parliament are formally dissolved ahead of the General Election. Parliamentary business will cease for five weeks during the campaign and the purdah period will formally commence.

FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT: Gurpreet Brar

0203 047 2466 gurpreet.brar@edelman.com