Edelman Election Update #8

EDELMAN ELECTION UPDATE OVERVIEW It was a night that no one had anticipated. The polls were deadlocked, the Conservative and Labour high commands were both equally nervous and no one was willing to call it.

However, when the results started to come in the outcome was striking.

We had heard of a late surge for both Labour and the Tories but only one was correct. The Chancellor for many days had been quietly confident and he was absolutely right to be so. A total Conservative vote share of around 37% and a seat tally which looks set to hit 325 really has exceeded all expectations.

Despite concerns around the risks of a hung parliament the result has been a decisive one with the Conservatives picking up votes in the most challenging of marginal seats.

The results are in and we have a much strengthened Conservative administration, a triumphant SNP, a Labour Party left licking its wounds and the Lib Dems questioning why they ever decided to go into Coalition in 2010.

Gurpreet Brar

GENERAL ELECTION 2015 RESULTS AT A GLANCE Final Projections CONSERVATIVE

331

LABOUR

232

SNP

56

LIB DEM

8

GREEN

1

UKIP

1

OTHER

21

3.7% 3.8% 4.7% 12.6%

36.9%

7.9%

15

With the outcome of the General Election too close to call as polls opened, pundits predicted a high turnout. But in the event turnout rose only slightly to 66%.

UKIP +9.5%

6 3 0 -3 -6 -9 -12 -15

CON +0.8%

LAB +1.5%

SNP +3.1% LIB DEM -15.2%

GREEN +2.8%

Glasgow South West 35.2%

Turnout

9

Across the UK the General Election has seen startling swings in support between the parties, nowhere more so than in Scotland and also where LibDem MPs have been defending against Labour and the Conservatives. Here are two of the most dramatic results :

30.4%

Change Since 2010 12

King of the Swing

Share of the Vote

66%

Winner: Chris Stephens SNP

Defeated: Ian Davidson Labour

Twickenham 11.8% Winner: Tania Mathias Conservative

Defeated: Vince Cable Lib DemÂ

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK

EDELMAN ELECTION UPDATE WINNERS & LOSERS

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

David Cameron The result, whether it eventually turns out to be an effective majority or not quite, is a huge personal triumph for the Prime Minister, and will end plotting against him in some parts.

FRIDAY

08 MAY

Nicola Sturgeon The SNP’s triumph in Scotland is a historic achievement and one that will have lasting consequences for the UK as a whole.

Lynton Crosby Crosby’s campaign may not have been pretty, but it worked – Labour struggled to make any gains from the Conservatives at all, and combined with the destruction of the Liberal Democrats, this has yielded an unforeseen victory.

Ed Miliband Labour had a terrible night, failing to make any headway against the Conservatives. In an all-but concession speech, Ed Miliband made clear he will shortly tender his resignation.

Nick Clegg Though he may have avoided defeat personally, the Liberal Democrats very existence as a political force is now imperilled – Clegg will certainly resign shortly.

Scottish Labour This was a disaster for Scottish Labour – a once-dominant party has been reduced to one single MP and less than a quarter of the vote.

Statements from Party Leaders on implications of election result David Cameron to visit the palace to form new Government Composition of new Government announced

SATURDAY

09 MAY MONDAY

11 MAY MONDAY

18 MAY WEDNESDAY

27 MAY

RESULTS ANALYSIS

Labour NEC meets to consider options following the election

1922 Committee of Backbench Conservative MPs meets

New Parliament returns and new MPs are sworn in

Provisional date for the Queen’s Speech

Harry Spencer

So what happened? Clearly, the polling firms had a disaster, on a par with 1992. How did the Conservatives build their lead?

Well, firstly, it seems likely the Conservatives benefited from tactical voting in their marginal constituencies, perhaps largely from UKIP voters switching at the last minute. This seems to have helped the Conservatives to achieve a more efficient vote distribution than in prior elections, winning a large number of seats by relatively small margins. In contrast, there is some evidence Labour increased its vote share most in areas where it didn’t need to, especially parts of London and the North East.

More broadly, UKIP’s performance appears to have hurt Labour as much as the Conservatives, and in some areas, more. This suggests that the rift between Labour and many of

its traditional supporters was greater than picked up in polls, and that UKIP poses a more severe challenge to Labour than previously thought. Fundamentally, Miliband’s Labour was too metropolitan, relying too much on Lib Dem switchers, who proved unreliable, and neglecting parts of the base too much.

The Liberal Democrats gambled their future as a major party on the power of incumbency. In past elections, Liberal Democrat incumbents have proved extremely resilient – but not in this one.

The result is a historic disaster for the Liberal Democrats – the worst performance for them or their predecessors since 1970.

Finally, the SNP surge was so strong that in the end tactical voting, discussions of ground game and everything else proved to be entirely irrelevant.

FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT: Gurpreet Brar

0203 047 2466 gurpreet.brar@edelman.com

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK