GENERAL ELECTION EDELMAN 9 June 2017
ELECTION OVERVIEW WILL WALDEN Managing Director, Public Affairs Former Director of Communications to Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson Well, that went well then! “What a dog’s dinner” was one of the only printable efforts texted to me overnight by stunned Tory advisors. Imagine heading to bed last night thinking that Theresa May was still on course to be returned with an 50, 80 or 100 seat majority; that, for all the narrowing in the polls, Labour candidates up and down the country were privately still talking about meltdown; that the talk was of a Labour leadership contest in the coming months, not a Tory one. Just imagine! Well, that is what most commentators and campaigners actually did imagine. Yes, the polls had narrowed; yes, social care had punctured the strong and stable bubble of ‘Mummy’ May; yes, Jeremy Corbyn had defied very low expectations and run a pretty effective campaign. But really, a hung Parliament? Surely not! Only eight weeks ago she was twenty points clear. Why, then? Because some pollsters were indeed right. YouGov’s new model was dismissed as outlandish – predicated as it was on young voters turning out in droves as never before – and yet for once they did turn out, in massive numbers, an unmistakeable V-sign flicked by the 18-25 generation at parents and grandparents who voted Leave, at Brexit, Brexiteers and the Tory Party. Unencumbered by memories of Corbyn and the 1980s hard Left they saw instead a man who spoke about hope; who, however unrealistic his numbers, offered promises on tuition fees, schools and the NHS. Labour also benefitted from the collapse in the UKIP vote, when everyone had predicted it would head uniformly to the Tories; and yes, Tory Remainers did indeed switch – or at least stayed at home. But this election was really lost for Mrs May in the campaign itself. She ran (or was run by her advisors) as a presidential brand, but without the requisite charm or charisma – and the varnish came off in spectacular fashion. Not content with irritating the Tory base on social care and winter fuel payments, it was decided that the U-turn wasn’t
actually a U-turn; that “nothing has changed”. Having decided to change direction, the ‘strong and stable’ thing to have done would have been to say “I’m listening and we have changed the policy.” Instead, Mrs May’s reputation hit the buffers as she insisted to incredulous reporters (and by extension millions of voters) ‘there’s nothing to see here’. She will need to change the way she governs. The fingerpointing and acrimony has already begun. Out I’d suspect goes the model of a tiny select coterie of advisors. She really will need to lead a team, if what comes next is to work. Don’t expect any big changes at Cabinet level; her room for manoeuvre has gone. She will need to replace Ben Gummer and the other seven Ministers who lost their seats, but that in all likelihood will be that. The Queen’s Speech that follows will be ultra-thin. It will probably be easier for stakeholders to influence or even stop existing policy in the months ahead, but equally it will likely be more difficult for stakeholders to get anything new and more substantive in front of government. Welcome to the parallel universe that is British politics, led by a woman averse to risk who rolled the dice and lost. Diminished, yes; finished? No. Mrs May will need to at least look like she is in charge in the coming days. It’s a huge test. That she has decided to stay is unsurprising. Out of options, she couldn’t exactly have said ‘It’s not gone well so I’ll step down in a few months; does anyone want to help me form a government in the interim?’ The country needs at least a sense of stability and continuity. That means forming a government now and attempting to reassure the country, her party, and the markets while beginning Brexit negotiations on time. Her speech in Downing Street was in marked contrast to her words a few hours ago in her Maidenhead constituency. More bullish, more Prime Ministerial – but ultimately delivered in the full knowledge that this has been a terrible night for her. Listening to her, you’d have thought she’d secured a 50-seat majority – fairness and opportunity for all, certainty, we want the best possible Brexit deal, we will make a success of it. It’s a massive task and it will define her immediate future, her legacy and the direction of this country in the years ahead. The Tories have a ruthless streak when it comes to leaders – Theresa May is on notice - but equally the party will be keen to avoid talk of leadership challenges, new elections and yet more uncertainty. For now…