Corbyn's Power Play - An Edelman Analysis

corbyn’s power play LABOUR CONFERENCE REVIEW

Craig Woodhouse Senior Director, Edelman

Calum O’Byrne Mulligan Senior Account Executive

With the Brexit endgame fast approaching, Jeremy Corbyn used Labour’s annual conference in Liverpool to dramatically raise the stakes. Firstly, he vowed that Labour would vote down any Brexit deal Theresa May brings to Parliament – unless she compromises in ways many of her own MPs would destroy her for – in a bid to force a general election as early as November.

And secondly, he spelled out a host of new policies he would introduce as Prime Minister – including a radical socialist overhaul of the economy with sweeping nationalisations and an enforced new dividend tax. The takeaway message from Corbyn was this: I’m offering to lead you to a softer Brexit than the Tories – or maybe even no Brexit at all – but that comes with the most left-wing populist government Britain has ever seen. It’s quite the gamble.

It leaves MPs on all sides facing a huge dilemma ahead of the so-called “meaningful vote” on the Brexit deal: should they put ideological interest, party interest, national interest or self-interest first? And it means Britain is facing yet another period of massive uncertainty as the drama plays out.

Edelman was in Liverpool to hear first-hand what Labour has in store, and is here to help you and your business prepare for whatever comes next. Here’s our guide to what we learned over the past few days.

EDELMAN | SOUTHSIDE | 105 VICTORIA STREET | SW1e 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 020 3047 2000 | @edelmanuk

Labour went into this conference split on Brexit, and they came out of it split on Brexit. But in being forced to confront their divisions, they emerged with a far clearer position – and having taken some of the initiative.

Jeremy Corbyn finished his conference speech with an audacious offer to the Prime Minister: drop your Brexit red lines, reach a compromise deal with the EU, and Labour will back you in Parliament – guaranteeing your deal will pass. This was designed to appear statesmanlike but in reality is nothing of the sort: Corbyn made his support conditional on the PM agreeing to keep the UK in a customs union with the EU, which her own party will never agree to. And Corbyn knows that.

Which brings us to his fallback position: a promise that Labour will vote against any other deal Theresa May brings back. The Prime Minister already lacks the numbers among her own MPs to pass a deal based on her “Chequers” proposals, so needs at least some Labour MPs to get it through. They will now be under orders to reject it – significantly increasing the risk of the UK leaving the EU with no deal. Indeed one highwire option for the PM will be to present her plan to MPs as a clear choice: my deal or no deal. That would leave Labour MPs with a big decision to make, as they hold the country’s future in their hands.

What Labour would do if the PM’s deal is voted down was the source of much wrangling – and verbal gymnastics – in Liverpool. Corbyn and his Shadow Brexit Secretary Sir Keir Starmer insist leaving without a deal is simply not viable, and that the EU would be prepared to extend talks to reach agreement. They also insist a deal on their terms is achievable, and Corbyn is meeting with the EU’s chief negotiator today to discuss it.

Owen Jones @OwenJones84 So the official Labour position after conference is that all options would be on the table: they want a general election to give them a chance of becoming the government and trying to negotiate a deal, but failing that they could back a so-called “People’s Vote” – or second referendum. Some in the Labour Party want this to include the option of remaining in the EU. Others, fearful of the reaction in Labour’s leave-voting northern heartlands, say it should only be a vote on the terms of leaving. For now, the “all options” ambiguity is just enough to paper over the cracks of division.

It feels as though Labour and the left have been on the defensive since April.

Labour conference has turned that around: the party is on the front foot, and it’s clear the left is winning the battle of ideas #lab18

corbyn’s power play | SEPTEMBER 2018

deal or no deal: closer to the brink

broadening the appeal

Make no mistake: if Jeremy Corbyn and his powerful Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell get into office, they intend to revolutionise the economy. McDonnell summed up his vision in one word: “socialism”. Corbyn vowed an end to “greed-is-good capitalism” – while insisting there is “nothing for business to be afraid of”. At the same time, a mention of Theresa May’s planned Corporation Tax cuts was booed in the conference hall. McDonnell made a virtue of being upfront about Labour’s plans, insisting it would allow companies to prepare for them. Building on the radical tax-and-spend 2017 general election manifesto, the party set out a raft of new policies that will impact business and the economy, including:

In addition to the headline economic announcements, Labour’s shadow team came armed with a raft of voter-friendly policies intended to demonstrate that the party is ready to govern. In a Trump-like fashion the party has seized on a feeling that parts of the country have been ignored for too long, that the economy is failing them, and that they deserve better. Among the other announcements were:

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Forcing large companies to put up to 10 per cent of shares into a pot dubbed “inclusive ownership funds”, with dividends worth up to £500 each going to workers and the rest – worth “billions” – going to the Treasury to pay for public services.

Requiring large companies to give a third of seats on boards to workers Nationalising water, rail, energy transmission and Royal Mail – with existing bosses fired and a warning that investors might not be compensated in full for the value of their current holdings Encouraging activist shareholders to speak out against tax avoidance and evasion and demand Robert Halfon @halfon4harlowMP firms sign up to a “fair tax mark” Conservative MP for Harlow Banning zero-hours contracts and giving workers Serious stuff from Labour this week that full trade union rights from day 1 in a job, whether may resonate with millions of workers full time or part time or temporary - @Conservatives need a thoughtful Introducing a £10-an-hour “Living Wage”, with response to this at conference with a true vision & passion for a #Workers further wages set through sectoral collective @ToryWorkers #socialjustice agenda . bargaining Predictable responses just won’t cut it Setting up a powerful new unit in the Treasury to with public. lead on the nationalisation programme, and re-writing the “Green Book” which Civil Servants use to make spending decisions Ending PFI deals

In exchange for “rebalancing power in the workplace”, Corbyn promised to give businesses “what you need to succeed and to expand and modernise our economy”. This is in the form of more investment in transport, housing, infrastructure and skills, paid for by a £250 billion National Transformation Fund – itself funded by taxes. At least £12 billion of that will go on delivering what Corbyn described as a “Green Jobs Revolution” with a major shift in environmental policy: cutting carbon emissions to zero by 2050 by building thousands more offshore wind turbines, starting a new onshore wind programme, trebling the amount of solar energy in the UK, and embarking on a major home and building insultation programme funded by the taxpayer.

During talks with business delegates, McDonnell and Shadow Business Secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey made clear it was not too late to influence their policy thinking – insisting they had an “open door” to discuss ideas. Edelman can help analyse policies and design a Labour engagement strategy to protect and promote your business.

EDELMAN | SOUTHSIDE | 105 VICTORIA STREET | SW1e 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 020 3047 2000 | @edelmanuk

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A plan to protect and revitalise Britain’s high streets by banning ATM charges and protecting Post Offices and local banks, while declaring an ambition to address the imbalance between the tax treatment of online and traditional retailers. Pleasing manufacturers, the party also committed to removing plant and machinery from the calculation of business rates.

A pledge to “end the housing crisis” by building 1.5 million homes and redefining the technical definition of what constitutes an “affordable” home. They party also announced plans to set up a renters’ union to protect tenants and a new tax on second homes to give the “have not’s” a fair shot and fund new housebuilding.

An extension of 30 hours of free childcare a week to all three- and four-year-olds, and a pledge to reverse the Academy schools programme. On health, a promise to end private sector involvement in the NHS and reverse the Health and Social Care Act that reorganised the NHS in the Coalition years.

In a smart move to appeal to pensioners who the Tories have targeted successfully in recent years, Corbyn pledged to preserve the pension triple lock, free bus passes and the winter fuel allowance for pensioners.

edelman public affairs: helping you act with certainty Whether the fallout from Brexit or the implications of a Jeremy Corbyn government, Edelman’s public affairs team offers first-class intelligence, the smartest analysis and expertise, senior strategic counsel and the most efficient execution to help you navigate the political landscape. Drawn from across the political spectrum and with years of experience in Westminster and the media, our team is led by Managing Director Will Walden – former Director of Communications and External Affairs at London City Hall. It includes a specialist Brexit Unit led by former Remain campaign deputy director Lucy Thomas, and political communications offering headed by the Prime Minister’s former Press Secretary Craig Woodhouse. We have unrivalled expertise in the workings of the current Labour Party, having recently hired from within Jeremy Corbyn’s inner circle and the party leader’s critics. To find out how Edelman can help you, please contact craig.woodhouse@edelman.com.

corbyn’s power play | SEPTEMBER 2018

the roadmap to socialism