EDELMAN ELECTION UPDATE
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OVERVIEW After the longest General Election campaign in post-war history, the finishing post is now nearly in sight for exhausted candidates, bedraggled activists and frustrated journalists alike. Six weeks ago, when David Cameron launched the formal election campaign, neither Labour nor the Conservatives could muster a clear advantage in the polls. Since then, both parties have traded poll leads – but the overall picture has remained strikingly stable. None of the expected game changers have materialised and the polls continue to show a dead heat between both the main parties.
Outside of the UK, where multi-party coalitions are common place, an inconclusive election result would not be a cause for concern. But in the winner-takes-all tradition of Westminster, politicians may need to learn the art of compromise quickly if any new government is to endure. Click the link below to view the latest Edelman Election wrap-up.
There are still a few days to go, and a late swing could yet deliver a clear advantage to either Labour or the Conservatives; but the chances of this happening now seem slim. Instead, the result on Thursday could well deliver a Parliament where no combination of parties can create the kind of stable coalition arrangement we have witnessed over the last five years between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.
Benedict Surtees
HIGHLIGHTS & LOWLIGHTS
POLLING REPORT
Nurse! The Screens!
After criticism that he has been too laid back, David Cameron turned up the volume and barnstormed his way through several speeches, declaring that he was feeling “pumped up” and “bloody lively!”
Brand Issues
Ed Miliband agreed to be interviewed by infamous non-voter Russell Brand (in Brand’s kitchen, no less). Mr Brand seemed to do most of the talking – but Ed’s team thought reaching out in a new way to voters was worth the risk.
The Shape of Things to Come?
Boris v Ed … The Prequel? The leading candidate for next Tory leader crossed swords with the man who may be our next Prime Minister on Andrew Marr’s sofa. The resulting fireworks may be what we see every Wednesday at PMQs in a few months’ time.
Harry Spencer
After months of static polls, Lynton Crosby may have finally delivered the much-promised “crossover” – the moment that the Conservatives move into a lead over Labour in vote share. While the polls continue to offer fairly different perspectives on the contest, for the first time in this campaign the bulk of evidence points to a narrow Conservative lead. Will they be cracking open the champagne in CCHQ? Well, not exactly. In 2010, the Conservatives led in England and Wales by 11.4%. Even in their best polls now, this lead is down to 6-7%, and in most polls is significantly smaller. Inevitably, this will result in lost seats to Labour. The key question is whether these losses will be to such an extent as to make a continuation of the current coalition impossible. In this respect, it’s worth remembering that every seat the Conservatives gain off the Liberal Democrats makes no difference to the two parties’ combined total, and therefore makes no difference to David Cameron’s hopes of remaining Prime Minister. It’s also worth remembering that the Conservatives will need to win considerably more seats than Labour to stay in power – if Labour gain only a few more, this will be easily outweighed by their losses to the SNP. To put it simply, coming first will not be enough.
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