Edelman Election Update - #7 by Edelman

EDELMAN ELECTION UPDATE

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OVERVIEW After the longest General Election campaign in post-war history, the finishing post is now nearly in sight for exhausted candidates, bedraggled activists and frustrated journalists alike. Six weeks ago, when David Cameron launched the formal election campaign, neither Labour nor the Conservatives could muster a clear advantage in the polls. Since then, both parties have traded poll leads – but the overall picture has remained strikingly stable. None of the expected game changers have materialised and the polls continue to show a dead heat between both the main parties.

Outside of the UK, where multi-party coalitions are common place, an inconclusive election result would not be a cause for concern. But in the winner-takes-all tradition of Westminster, politicians may need to learn the art of compromise quickly if any new government is to endure. Click the link below to view the latest Edelman Election wrap-up.

There are still a few days to go, and a late swing could yet deliver a clear advantage to either Labour or the Conservatives; but the chances of this happening now seem slim. Instead, the result on Thursday could well deliver a Parliament where no combination of parties can create the kind of stable coalition arrangement we have witnessed over the last five years between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.

Benedict Surtees

HIGHLIGHTS & LOWLIGHTS

POLLING REPORT

Nurse! The Screens!

After criticism that he has been too laid back, David Cameron turned up the volume and barnstormed his way through several speeches, declaring that he was feeling “pumped up” and “bloody lively!”

Brand Issues

Ed Miliband agreed to be interviewed by infamous non-voter Russell Brand (in Brand’s kitchen, no less). Mr Brand seemed to do most of the talking – but Ed’s team thought reaching out in a new way to voters was worth the risk.

The Shape of Things to Come?

Boris v Ed … The Prequel? The leading candidate for next Tory leader crossed swords with the man who may be our next Prime Minister on Andrew Marr’s sofa. The resulting fireworks may be what we see every Wednesday at PMQs in a few months’ time.

Harry Spencer

After months of static polls, Lynton Crosby may have finally delivered the much-promised “crossover” – the moment that the Conservatives move into a lead over Labour in vote share. While the polls continue to offer fairly different perspectives on the contest, for the first time in this campaign the bulk of evidence points to a narrow Conservative lead. Will they be cracking open the champagne in CCHQ? Well, not exactly. In 2010, the Conservatives led in England and Wales by 11.4%. Even in their best polls now, this lead is down to 6-7%, and in most polls is significantly smaller. Inevitably, this will result in lost seats to Labour. The key question is whether these losses will be to such an extent as to make a continuation of the current coalition impossible. In this respect, it’s worth remembering that every seat the Conservatives gain off the Liberal Democrats makes no difference to the two parties’ combined total, and therefore makes no difference to David Cameron’s hopes of remaining Prime Minister. It’s also worth remembering that the Conservatives will need to win considerably more seats than Labour to stay in power – if Labour gain only a few more, this will be easily outweighed by their losses to the SNP. To put it simply, coming first will not be enough.

EDELMAN ELECTION UPDATE ELECTION NIGHT GUIDE

The polls will close at 10pm and shortly after the exit poll will be published. This will offer the first good indication of the result, and in recent elections the exit polls have been very accurate. A repeat of 1992 is unlikely…

It’s SNP time. All the Glasgow area constituencies are expected to declare around now, and the scale of the SNP’s triumph will become clear. Labour big hitters Douglas Alexander and Jim Murphy will be among those waiting nervously.

Houghton & Sunderland South is expected to be the first seat to declare. A safe Labour seat, the main interest will be in UKIP’s performance, which may be a guide as to how they will fair in Labour strongholds across England.

We should be about halfway through by now, and results in safe Conservative seats should start to come through en masse. Ed Miliband’s own constituency should declare around now – but will it be a victory speech?

Nuneaton is set to be the first key Conservative-Labour marginal to declare. Labour needs a swing of 2.3% to win the seat and polls suggest a very close contest. A must-win for Labour.

For those who have stayed up, this could be the Portillo moment: Nick Clegg’s seat is expected to declare. If the DPM survives, scalp-hunters need not wait too long: Danny Alexander’s seat will declare about half an hour later.

The flood of results is expected to begin in earnest. The two Northampton seats will be particularly worth watching. If the Conservatives hold both, it’s a good omen for them; if Labour takes one of the two, it points to a close outcome … and if Labour takes both, the Conservatives are in for a long night.

By now, all but a handful of stragglers or exceptionally close contests which require multiple recounts will have declared. The tricky business of trying to form a Government will have only just begun.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR THIS WEEK S

THE FINAL PUSH

All the main political parties can be expected to kick-off three days of intensive campaigning ahead of polling day, with Ed Miliband and David Cameron touring key marginal constituencies across the UK.

POLLING DAY

Voting will take place throughout the UK, with polls open between 7am and 10pm. The first results can be expected around 11pm, with most seats declaring in the early hours of Friday morning.

COALITION NEGOTIATIONS

In the event of a hung Parliament, public statements from the leaders of the main political parties can be expected, outlining their willingness to form a coalition or pact with other parties.

FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT: Gurpreet Brar

0203 047 2466 gurpreet.brar@edelman.com