The Scottish Referendum - What Happens Next? 10pm today:
Polls close.
2am tomorrow:
3am tomorrow:
The first results will start to come in.
Results will begin coming in quickly.
4am tomorrow:
More than half the results should be in. Most of Yes’s strongest areas should be in.
Will the Prime Minister resign?
Does Scotland vote for independence?
5am tomorrow:
Glasgow and Edinburgh are expected to declare. Once they do, the winner will probably be clear.
For further details:
6am tomorrow:
Gurpreet Brar, Managing Director for Public Affairs, Edelman, London. 020 3047 2466 or gurpreet.brar@edelman.com
Aberdeen will be the final area to declare.
David Robertson, Director, Public Affairs, Edelman, London. 020 3047 2154 or david.robertson@edelman.com
New PM in Number 10
Yes
Yes No Yes
Do the Conservatives trigger a vote of confidence? No
No
Does the Labour Party call a motion of no confidence? No
Status Quo with more devolution Impact on British politics? All three major party leaders will stay in place. The debate over devolution could become highly politicised. In Scotland, Alex Salmond will remain First Minister in any situation. Impact on Devolution and Independence Negotiations? The major parties have committed to quickly devolving further powers to Scotland before the 2015 election - but any law will need to go through both the Lords and Scottish Parliament which could cause delay. There is also no agreement on what powers will be devolved, and pressure for devolution in Wales, England and NI could complicate the process. Impact on General Election? The election will go ahead in May 2015 as planned.
Yes
Yes
Do 100 Conservative MPs have no confidence in PM?
Do the Conservatives settle on one candidate?
Yes
Yes
No
Impact on British politics? The Conservatives would seek to minimise the electoral damage - with a leadership contest in 2015 if the Conservatives lose. Impact on Devolution and Independence Negotiations? Independence negotiations could begin quickly in this case, once the new Prime Minister is in place. Devolution in England and Wales would become a General Election issue, but negotiations with the Scottish Government would be the priority. Impact on General Election? The General Election would go ahead as planned, with Scotland included. Another election could follow independence.
No
Prime Minister stays on – but weakened Impact on British politics? The Prime Minister would survive but his authority would be diminished – independence negotiations would be added to ongoing issues over Europe and could split the party. Labour and the Lib Dems would both be electorally damaged as well, with UKIP seeking to exploit this situation. Impact on Devolution and Independence Negotiations? Independence negotiations would be able to begin fairly quickly. Given the Prime Minister's weakened position, the independence negotiations would be very difficult to manage, especially amid calls for devolution to Wales, the English regions and NI. The UK Government would also be negotiating from a weak position. Impact on General Election? The election would very likely go ahead as planned – and Scotland would take part. There could be another election once independence is finalised.
Conservative Leadership contest Impact on British politics? A leadership contest would create great uncertainty – especially just months from an election and in the middle of negotiating the end of the Union or devolution of further powers. UKIP may be able to attract more MP defectors. Impact on Devolution and Independence Negotiations? Negotiations for independence would not be able to begin for several months until the leadership contest is over. Parties are likely to clash over different prescriptions for devolution in the rest of the UK and the management of negotiations. Impact on General Election? The May 2015 election is likely to go ahead as it is very difficult to change the date of the election. Another election could follow Scotland’s independence.