Edelman General Election Update #2 by Edelman

EDELMAN ELECTION UPDATE

DAYS TO GO

OVERVIEW It has been a busy few weeks in Westminster. Since our last update, the Chancellor has given his final Budget of this Parliament, the first TV election debate has taken place and David Cameron has announced he won’t stand for a third term as Prime Minister. Despite this frenetic political pace, though, the impact on the two main political parties’ fortunes has been negligible, if non-existent. Labour and the Conservatives remain equally locked in the mid-thirties in the polls, occasionally overtaking each other but rarely with the consistency or distance that either party would like. The debates haven’t moved the dial one way or the other: commentators state Ed Miliband came out on top, while the public (or at least the Guardian/ICM poll) supported the Conservative leader.

With this lack of momentum in the polls, the outcome in May remains at almost unprecedented levels of uncertainty. Just this week, the political betting site Bet2015.com had the betting public predicting 274 seats for the Conservative Party … and 274 seats for the Labour Party too, a potentially unheard of match. What we can be sure of is that, now Parliament has finally finished the long run up to its dissolution, MPs and candidates throughout the country will be furiously canvassing and looking to the political party manifestos, expected next month, to give them further ammunition to swing their local electorate.

Anthony Marlowe

HOW THE CAMPAIGN WILL BE FOUGHT CONSERVATIVE

For the first time in the UK, we are likely to see a General Election campaign taking place across print, broadcast and digital media. Meanwhile, the traditional contest between Labour and the Conservatives has been transformed into a multi-party affair. To guide you through this transformed political landscape, Edelman has prepared the following guide to how each of the parties are approaching this campaign. Click the link above to view the full Edelman wrap-up.

• Focusing resources on a “small battleground” of 80 marginal seats as part of a “40/40 strategy” to win a narrow commons majority • Placing David Cameron front and centre of the campaign, with the aim of presenting the election as a clear choice between the Conservative Leader and Ed Miliband • Investing heavily in reaching voters through social media, producing a string of YouTube attack-ads and investing £100,000 a month in Facebook advertising

LIB DEMS • Relying on highly localised campaigning to save incumbent MPs from a collapse in support nationally • Allocating limited resources to winnable seats, including a small number currently held by Labour and the Conservatives

LABOUR • Adopting a “narrow focus” campaign intended to motivate core supporters and win round disaffected 2010 Liberal Democrat voters as part of the so called “35% strategy” • Seeking to exploit its strong base of activists, boosted by support from the Trades Union movement, to secure a crucial advantage in the key marginals • Endeavouring to side step a hostile national media through encouraging supporters and candidates to engage with voters through social media

OTHERS • SNP: Seeking to translate the grassroots success of the pro-independence campaign into the sweeping gains against Labour • UKIP: Aiming to snatch a handful of seats and strong second places, while relying on “Cyber-kippers” to spread the word online in a similar way to SNP activists

EDELMAN ELECTION UPDATE BATTLEGROUND GUIDE The battleground for this election has been greatly expanded by the rise of the SNP and UKIP, which will see election-defining contests in areas normally seen as safe seats. The importance of local campaigning, local knowledge and smart use of resources will be emphasised like never before.

Scotland is on the brink of an once-in-a-lifetime political earthquake. If the SNP takes a clear majority of Scottish seats, it will be a huge blow to Labour’s hopes and transform British politics.

The Conservatives are putting sustained effort into the North West as seen in the Northern Powerhouse announcements. They have a dozen gains to defend from 2010, and aspirations to take additional seats off Labour.

The Midlands are traditionally where elections are won and lost and 2015 will be no different. There are dozens of marginal constituencies to fight for, and whoever comes out of the Midlands ahead is very likely to stay ahead.

London is another traditional swing area and Labour’s hopes of being the largest party will rest on making at least half a dozen gains from the governing parties.

The South-West is where the battle between the coalition partners will be fiercest. A quarter of Lib Dem seats are in the region, almost all of which are Tory targets.

HIGHLIGHTS AND LOWLIGHTS Joining Battle over the Budget

Cameron Springs Trap in Final PMQs

Salmond Calls the Tune

MPs spent five days in the House of Commons debating the final coalition Budget, with plenty of heated words fired across the Chamber. Sky News took the debate to the next level by pitting George Osborne, Ed Balls, David Cameron and Ed Miliband against one another in a Budget Rap Battle – instantly making a complicated financial statement a bit more accessible and a lot funnier.

Prime Minister’s Questions is the most-watched part of Commons proceedings, but possibly not the most edifying. It’s gotten noisier and noisier as the election has gotten closer – but the final PMQs surpassed them all. Challenged on whether he would raise VAT in the next Parliament, David Cameron bluntly told Ed Miliband “no” – arguably winning outright the last engagement between the two men before Polling Day.

The SNP surge in the polls continues, with the possibility they’ll win almost every seat in Scotland. The Conservatives paint Alex Salmond, who is attempting to return to Parliament, as the Pied Piper calling Ed Miliband’s tune in their latest campaign video. You might be forgiven for thinking that Salmond, rather than Nicola Sturgeon, is still the leader of the SNP.

FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT: Gurpreet Brar

0203 047 2466 gurpreet.brar@edelman.com