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Export News –
2020 export market analysis Wayne Prowse, Fresh Intelligence Consulting
After reaching a record level of 4,272 tonnes exported in 2019, the export results in 2020 took a tumble: down 46% to 2,300 tonnes. Simply, the word COVID has been front left and centre for all of us in the past year and its impact on Australian avocado exports cannot be understated.
Avocado export markets The impact on air freight was most significant, then a severe crop shortage in Western Australia drove domestic prices higher causing a disincentive to export. Our key international markets, Singapore and Malaysia, were filled with avocados mainly from Mexico and Kenya at price points that were around 50% of the Australian domestic prices and very few could be sold to importers at the prices that Australian growers could achieve in the domestic market. The hard fought access to Japan yielded just six (6) tonnes in 2020, all being in February, which was negligible in the 80,000 tonnes market dominated by the Mexican supply. Hong Kong was the only market that defied the trend and took 698 tonnes, an increase of 6% on last year. In this section we will take a brief look at the global situation and then at the 4 markets of interest to understand more of the market dynamics and import demand though this last year, and Australia’s position.
Global
Thailand Taiwan 1% 1% all other 0%
South Korea 10%
Hong Kong (net) 5%
Japan 57% China 20%
Figure 1. Avocado Imports by Asian market share. Source: ITC Trademap; Fresh Intelligence analysis
Avocado Key Measures (Calendar Years) 2019
2020
Change
Volume (tonnes)
4,272
2,300
-46.2%
Value (M AUD)
24.5
19.1
-22.0%
$ per kg
$5.74
$8.32
44.9%
Source: IHS Global Trade Atlas; Fresh Intelligence analysis
Global avocado production continues to experience sustained growth above the rates for overall fruit production in the past decade. Global avocado increased 5.8% to 7.2 million tonnes in 2019 and some 40% of the world’s avocados are internationally traded. In contrast Australia’s production reached 87,000 tonnes or 1.2% of the global production with less than 2.6% exported. This shows that Australia remains strongly domestic focussed. The growing acceptance of avocados by European and North American consumers for use in a wide variety of meal situations, and the emerging interest from North Asian markets is fuelling the production growth. Investment in promotion and the good news stories of avocado health benefits are helping increase demand along with improved distribution and ripening systems. Almost 70% of avocados are produced in Latin America, notably Mexico, Peru and Colombia, and from there the distribution lanes reach as far as Europe, Asia and North America. Kenya is now the largest exporter of avocados in Africa and is making an impact in South East Asian markets of interest to Australia.
24
Singapore 4%
Malaysia 2%
NEWS
Mexico, Peru, Chile, South Africa and Kenya combined account for 90% of the global avocado export trade, which stood at 2.5 million tonnes in 2019. The United States is the single largest importer of 1.2 million tonnes of avocados, mostly from Mexico while Europe collectively imported 500,000 tonnes (excluding internal trade), mostly from Peru, Chile, Colombia and Mexico. Asian markets imported 140,000 tonnes of which 80,000 tonnes were imported by Japan and almost 35,000 tonnes by China and Hong Kong. China’s imports have receded after rapid growth and part of this is due to the increasing local production. Some reports suggest that up to 100,000 tonnes of production is due to come online from plantings mainly in the southern Yunnan Province by 2025 which is starting to impact on import demand. Australia’s major export markets were again Singapore and Malaysia, which account for 6% of the total avocados imported by the region even though Australia’s trade fell away by over 50%.
TALKING AVOCADOS AUTUMN 2021
