Climate Change
Zsuzsanna Ivanyi 02 October, 2015 NIS
Some energy is radiated back into space by the Earth in the form of infrared waves Some of this outgoing infrared radiation is trapped by the Earth’s atmosphere and warms it
Most of this radiation is absorbed by the Earth and warms it
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REASONS of CC 1. Natural factors: solar radiation volcanoes (increased CO2 concentration) El Nino phenomenon 2. Anthropogenic activities: pollutant emissions GREENHOUSE EFFECT land-use change
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Where Do Greenhouse Gases Come From? MELTING PERMAFROST
COAL MINING OIL PRODUCTION
COAL PLANTS
INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES
CROP BURNING FERTILIZATION
FOREST BURNING INDUSTRIAL AGRICULTURE LAND TRANSPORTATION
LANDFILLS
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Our future * Population : presently 7 billion, by 2050 9 billion * Energy : IEA : 2030 – 40 % increase in energy demand * Water : OECD : 2030 – 4 bn people in water stress * Food : doubling of production in next 40 years * Cities : UN : more than half population in cities 2050 : 80 % population in cities * Transport : 2050 : 3 bn vehicles (850 mill today)
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Sustainable Development: An Issue of Carrying Capacity If we go on with current production and consumption patterns, Two planets needed by 2050
200 190 205 2 D. L. Meadows, 0 0 Based on "Beyond the Limits", D.H. Meadows, and J. Randers 1992; Chelsea Green Publishing, White River Junction VT.
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Newest Assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC, AR5 Introduced in 2013-14: • WG I: The Physical Science Basis, (23-26 September, 2013, Stockholm, Sweden) • WG II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, (2529 March 2014, Yokohama, Japan) • WG III: Mitigation of Climate Change, (7-11 April 2014, Berlin, Germany)
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Main statement of IPCC, AR5 • Warming of the climate systems is unequivocal and observed global warming will to continue (due to GHGs long lifetime) • GHGs emission will cause further warming effecting not only the atmosphere, land and oceans in all regions of the globe • Human influence on the climate system is clear. • Limit climate change to 2°C compared to preindustrial level
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New scenarios, new results by IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), and Projected Global Surface Temperature increase by 2100: • RCP2.6 W/m2 421 ppm, 0.3-1.7 C • RCP4.5 W/m2 538 ppm 1.1-2.6 C • RCP6.0 W/m2 670 ppm 1.4-3.1 C • RCP8.5 W/m2 936 ppm 2.6-4.8 C
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TOWARDS PARIS COP21, Conference of Parties 30 November-10 December, 2015
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History of climate negotiations • 1992 Rio de Janeiro: UNFCCC, set a common framework for action stabilizing GHG concentration common but differiented responsibilities, entered into force 21 March, 1994 • 1997 Kyoto: quantified reduction commitment by Annex I Parties for 1st commitment period, 20082012, KP enterd into force 16 February, 2005 • 2009 Copenhagen- failure, Copenhagen Acord, a political agreement, not adopted by the plenary • 2012 Doha –extension of KP till 2020 New approach needed www.rec.org
Designing the 2015 agreement_1 The new deal must reflect: • Scientific results, IPCC AR5 • Emerging economies increase contribution to economic growth and GHG emission • Increasing population, increasing demand • Tackling CC issues will have additional benefits • Preventing carbon leakage (shifting carbon intensive activities)
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Designing the 2015 agreement_2 • Must be inclusive (applicable for both developed and developing countries) • Must be ambitious meeting the 2 C target • Must be fair and equitable • Must be legally binding • Must involve/motivate the key stakeholders • Must ensure transparency and accountability
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Paris Protocol: EU vision for a global deal for climate • Fair and ambitious commitment from all Parties: all G20 and other high and middle income countries • Robust common rules for transparency and accountability: most recent emission inventories to be prepared prior to ratification • Legally binding for all Parties to the Protocol • Regular reviews to increase ambition: 5-yearly starting in 2020
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2030 Framework for Climate and Energy
2020
2030
-20 %
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
20%
Renewable Energy
- 40 % Greenhouse Gas Emissions
27 % Renewable Energy
20 %
Energy Efficiency
27%* Energy Efficiency * To be reviewed by 2020, having in mind an EU level of 30%
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Emission reductions in the non-ETS: targets and principles 2030 target: -30% compared to 2005 • Applicable to transport, households, agriculture • Member State targets range between 0% and -40% • Target setting guided by GDP/capita, supplemented by cost effectiveness criteria. • LULUCF to be integrated
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2015 Agreement Draft negotiating text addressing: • mitigation, • adaptation, • finance • transparency
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Mitigation: Intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) • Scope of INDCs: mitigation INDCs expected to be more ambitious than "current undertakings"; adaptation voluntary; finance not included • Upfront information: detailed and quantifiable, but voluntary; Parties expected to explain why its INDC is "fair and ambitious" • No mandated international assessment before Paris, but INDCs will be published, synthesized and aggregated by 1 Nov 2015
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Further elements Adaptation: • Local nature, actions are country dependent • How to reflect in the agreement? • Mainstreaming in all relevant sectoral policies Financing: • Remains central element • Climate aspects fully integrated to public and private investments • Share of burden needs to be reconsidered Technology: • On top of known EE +RES shift to new and more advanced technologies, economically viable www.rec.org
Propects for Paris: main elements 1. Legal form and legal force: rules on MRV, compliance, (?) and a cycle for strengthening commitments over time 2. Differentiation: Aim for economy-wide mitigation commitments by all, INDC as a vehicle 3. Staying below 2 degrees Celsius 4. Adapting to adverse effects of climate change 5. Climate finance
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Propects for Paris: Main challenges • The biggest challenge of the new deal is the gap between the self determined national contributions and the GHG emission reductions required to limit global warming below 2 C • Strong review mechanism is needed • Financing???
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IMPACTS of CLIMATE CHANGE
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Beijing, China •23 July 2012
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Paljurci Dam, Macedonia 22 August 2012
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Carlet, Spain 1 July 2012
Over 153.000 hectares (378.000 acres) burned in Spain from January through August
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Geographical distribution of projected changes, IPCC AR5
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Direct impacts of climate change in CEE • More hot and dry summers • More frequent and severe storms, extreme precipitations • Longer duration of dry periods in summer • Milder winters with moore precipitation (mixed phase of snow, rain, freezed rain etc) • Increased frequency of local wind storms
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Indirect impacts of climate change • • • • • •
Heat-waves Forest fires Changing spread of species, biodiversity Floods, land slides, inland inundation Soil degradation Change in water balance - annual run-off - decreasing annual water supply - sinking of water level in soil www.rec.org
Social-economic consequences • • • • •
Human health, quality of life Energy supply Infrastructure Agricutural damages (42% is due to droughts) Food supply and price
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Source: Stern Review, 2007.
Key example: Adaptation to Climate Change Financed by EEA Grant (2012-2016), Hungary Main activities: 1. Establishing sound data base supporting adaptation policy (NAGiS) 2. Enhancing knowledge, building capacities at local levels (training materials, trainings) 3. Concrete solutions for concrete local problems related to water availability (too much, too little) in form of investment oriented pilot projects www.rec.org
Establishment of National Adaptation Geo-informatic System (NAGiS) 1. Development of NAGiS: development of the core of a country-wide system, 10km x 10km (climate data, digital terrain data, water, forestry, land-use and biodiversity related data) predefined; 2. Extension of NAGiS to other sectors (agriculture, tourism, socio-economic); 3. Improvement of the NAGiS knowledge base (improving climate projections)
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NAGIS: a help for sectoral and spatial planning The NAGiS will provide information for national, regional and local administration and municipalities for the sectoral and spatial planning in the fields of climate policy energy policy disaster relief transportation and infrastructure Settlement Infrastucture Forestry planning development policy agriculture rural development Transportation forestry Human health Tourism settlement and regional plans public utilities management tourism Agriculture Energy policy Disaster health, quality of life management www.rec.org
“Act before it’s too late!”
THANKS for the ATTENTION
zivanyi@rec.org
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