Preparing for MAGA & 4T meeting again
Diplomacy tested: Sheibaum and the challenge of dealing with Trump
MANY ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND MEXICO IS EMERGING AS ONE OF THE TOP TEN POTENTIAL CONFLICTS FOR 2025. “PRESIDENT CLAUDIA SHEINBAUM’S DIPLOMATIC AND GOVERNANCE ABILITIES WILL BE TESTED,” SAID THE EURASIA GROUP, A GEOPOLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS ORGANIZATION.
At the heart of the situation is Donald Trump, the recently re-elected President of the United States. He returns, as some suggest, “reloaded” and unrestrained after a four-year break from governance, with his Republican Party in power in Congress and overseeing the judiciary.
Trump’s current attitude shapes the United States’ relationship with the world, and the bilateral relationship with Mexico is no exception. According to centrist writer Andrew Egger, Trump “relishes that those around him fear his power— not only that, but they believe he will use it arbitrarily. He loves that they understand old bonds—alliances, treaties, laws, norms—won’t protect them.”
For other analysts, such as David Frum, the point is clearer: “A foreign country either supports Donald Trump and aligns with U.S. interests or it opposes him.”
share social and economic ties, has seldom been so noticeable.
However, even in such circumstances, some contend that the need for cooperation is so significant that many of Trump’s economic and social proposals would encounter obstacles without that collaboration.
“The decline in relations between two countries linked by trade, investment, and family connections would be a catastrophe for both...” cautioned the Crisis Group in a yearend analysis.
“Diplomatic relations are on track for a challenging year,” stated a report from the Center for the United States and Mexico at Rice University.
The Crisis Group expects a turbulent year, primarily due to the deportations of undocumented migrants and increasing pressures to combat drug trafficking, particularly with the looming threat of U.S. military incursions.
At the same time, an analysis by the Eurasia Group indicated that President Sheinbaum’s administration has taken a “proactive and pragmatic” approach to the relationship, “although, to be honest, it doesn’t have many options since the U.S. is by far the largest trading and investment partner.”
According to Rice University’s analysis, part of the problem lies in the divergent path that Mexico has taken under President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a course that has been continued, at least for now, by Sheinbaum’s administration.
The shared border complicates matters for both sides, particularly for Mexico, which, like Canada, views the United States as its primary trading partner. According to the Eurasia Group, Trump’s demands will exceed the expectations of the Mexican government.
The differences between the two countries encompass aspects that range from national security and the survival of an economic-commercial bloc to various issues, including migration, drug trafficking, trade, ideology, domestic politics, and societies. The concerns seem justified given Trump’s threatening rhetoric. He was re-elected as President of the United States in November 2024, running a campaign that promised to impose tariffs on U.S. imports from Mexico, Canada, and other countries, carry out mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, secure the border against synthetic drugs and Chinese products, and deploy special forces to combat drug traffickers. The gap between two nations considered strategic allies, who
dor, expressing no concerns about his ideology. However, he emphasized that the newly elected president should remember that to succeed, he must consider U.S. interests.
In a recent “X” post, Tony Payan, the highly capable director of the Mexico Center at Rice University, pointed out that “as checks and balances in #Mexico collapse, many Mexicans believe #Washington under #Trump will act as a restraint on the government of @ClaudiaSheinbaum.
“That’s true to some extent: as long as Sheinbaum meets his demands regarding #immigration, #drugs, and #China, he won’t be concerned about Mexico’s democratic collapse.”
However, the Eurasia Group warned that “the extent of Trump’s demands and what Sheinbaum will need to concede to meet them will surpass what the Mexican government expects. Furthermore, given Morena’s consolidation of power, it will not be able to use internal political constraints as an excuse to resist.
The dichotomy in the relationship is evident in President Sheinbaum’s optimistic remarks about the future and the public’s preparations to welcome potentially hundreds of thousands of people whom President-elect Trump, who is set to take office on January 20, threatens to deport.
Trump's current attitude shapes the United States' relationship with the world, and the bilateral relationship with Mexico is no exception.
The Rice University report and an analysis from Morena’s senatorial bloc concur that Mexico must enhance its efforts to combat drug trafficking, migration, and trade triangulation with China.
The increasing trade between Mexico and China, amid accusations that China uses Mexico to smuggle prohibited goods into the United States and its alleged responsibility in precursor trafficking, further complicates the bilateral relationship.
“The most favorable course of action for Mexico is to continue implementing strict criminal policies against drug production and related activities, demonstrating that the Mexican state is fully committed to collaborating in addressing a shared problem: drug trafficking,” stated a document purportedly prepared for Morena.
This highlights Trump’s threats to deploy U.S. military forces against drug cartel leaders or groups in Mexico. Nevertheless, there is a growing agreement that this approach is counterproductive.
Indeed, the newly appointed Secretary of State, Senator Marco Rubio, commented on López Obra-
Concerns appear justified given Trump’s threatening rhetoric. He secured the presidency for a second term in November 2024, following a campaign that pledged to impose tariffs on U.S. imports from Mexico, Canada, and other countries, execute mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, close the border to synthetic drugs and the triangular trade in Chinese products, and even deploy special forces to target drug traffickers.
However, Adam Isacson, a veteran migration and security expert at the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), asserts that the situation is not as asymmetrical as it seems.
“Mexico serves as a blockade and filter for migrants heading north, while also being a key destination for deportations,” he told the online magazine World Policy Review.
Since 2023, WOLA has compiled Mexican migration data indicating that Mexico has detained, apprehended, or “found” millions of migrants heading north.
In this context, WPR observed that Trump’s campaign promises to deport the 11 million undocumented immigrants he claims are currently in the United States, along with his repeated pledges to “secure the border,” are largely impractical without cooperation from Mexico.
José Carreño Figueras
BY: DANIEL BENET
ALEJANDRO
Trump and his allies have constantly and relentlessly pushed a narrative of immigration being one of the main sources of insecurity and economic troubles in the United States. To him, and others, the drug abuse problem and crime in the country are determined by the influx of illegal substances and unauthorized immigrants from the southern border. The target of these deportations could be any of the estimated 11.3 million unauthorized immigrants in the United States.
Nevertheless, the incoming president has aimed at specific nationalities of origin to vent supporters’ frustration over unresolved issues affecting American communities. He has even gone as far as declaring he would try to strip U.S. born persons of birthright citizenship if born from unauthorized immigrant parents.
Of course, the absolute majority of immigrants, including unauthorized ones, are not the root of murder, robberies and drug-addiction. On the contrary, they are a deeply integrated part of the United States, albeit mostly economically. Of the 11.3 unauthorized immigrants, 8.3 million are in employment, making up nearly 4.8 percent of the entire U.S. workforce. The undocumented migrant community paid in 2022 $96.7 billion in federal, state and local taxes. Still, they are barred of access to the rights and benefits for which these taxes are collected.
OBAMA, TRUMP AND BIDEN DEPORTATIONS
People who entered the country with no authorization can be ‘sent back’ from the United States through removals or returns.
Removals require an order enforced by ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) or Customs and Border Patrol. This method of repatriation is non-voluntary and has criminal consequences on reentry. Returns are migrants’ voluntary departure without a formal removal order, these include cases where a person arrives at a port of entry with no visa.
THE COST OF TRUMP’S PROMISED MASS DEPORTATIONS
According to ICE each flight of deported migrants can cost up to $250,000. According to the American Immigration Council, deporting all immigrants without legal status would cost American taxpayers $315 billion. Being logistically and legally unattainable, if these deportations were programmed at a rate of one million people each year, the total cost would rise to $968 billion.
Donald Trump promised mass deportations during his 2024 campaign for presidency. After winning the election, he has doubled down on taking action beginning on day 1 in office, calling for the “largest deportation operation in American history”
OTHER CONSEQUENCES
The U.S. has deported millions of people in the past, does it improve the job market for citizens and people who are in the country legally? A study by the University of
with
MASSDEPORTATIONS A THREAT TO MUTILATE AMERICAN SOCIETY
Donald Trump’s second presidential term will be marked by his anti-immigrant rhetoric and his aim to initiate the largest deportation of undocumented individuals in U.S. history. His plans include the removal of approximately 5 million undocumented Mexicans among the 11 million people of various nationalities facing irregular immigration status. In response, Mexico has developed a strategy to assist its citizens. But will it be sufficient? Will it work? The facts will reveal the reality.
BY: ANGÉLICA SIMÓN UGALDE
Following the announcement of the United States election results, President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo of Mexico has expressed her concerns about the threats that Trump poses to Mexicans.
“We will always stand by and defend them; it is our duty and responsibility. You are not alone,” she has consistently emphasized.
The Mexican president has emphasized her opposition to the deportation plan, insisting that the United States must recognize the value of migrants' work and their contributions to the country’s economy. Nevertheless, Mexico is preparing for various scenarios, including preventing deportations without due process and receiving nationals if they are expelled.
FROM PREVENTION TO REPATRIATION
The 53 Mexican consulates in the U.S. are facing a significant challenge in supporting a migrant community that requires compassionate and practical assistance. As a result, efforts are underway to enhance and streamline their services, ensuring every one of Mexican descent can obtain documents and guidance quickly. This involves simplifying and digitizing administrative processes. Mexicans can now access nine online services, such as submitting birth certificates to the National Registration and Identity System (SID) of the National Population and Identity Registry (RENAPO), printing certified birth certificates, correcting document errors, and more.
Simplification efforts also involve reducing requirements; for example, obtaining dual citizenship now requires only three documents instead of nine. Additionally, the process for scheduling consular appointments has been ad-
Deporting someone from the United States requires a judicial order and a definitive deportation or removal sentence.
justed to improve availability and streamline the submission of digital papers for review.
Another crucial preventive measure is to ensure that Mexicans in the United States are aware of their rights, including the fact that deportations must follow due process. To this end, the campaign “Know and Exercise Your Rights” is carried out throughout the consular network. None of these efforts ensure that mass deportations will not take place.
Mexico is ready to welcome its citizens.
Migrants will be treated with dignity and respect.
In her government plan, outlined in the 100 steps for promised transformation, Claudia Sheinbaum pledged "a steadfast commitment from the Mexican state to defend and promote the rights of its citizens, aiming not only to recognize but also to enhance their rights and opportunities, while ensuring their protection and fostering their prosperity.”
Considering that Donald Trump is not known for following standard practices, the Mexican government has implemented another strategy: enhancing the External Legal Advisory Program, which includes hiring 329 legal advisors. Alongside the consular network, these advisors will ensure that due process is upheld in cases involving detained nationals and will establish an observatory to monitor the various immigration laws across U.S. states.
Also an application called “Alert Button” will be launched for situations where citizens feel an immediate threat of detention. Once activated, it will alert the nearest consulate, pre-registered family members, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This tool cooperates with the Mexican Information and Assistance Center (CIAM), available 24/7.
REPATRIATION WITH INTEGRATION
“I have lived in the United States for over 20 years, more than half my life. I own a business and a home here, and my children attend college. I have built a life here. If am sent back to Mexico, I will have nothing—not even a place to go.”
These are the words of Lucía, who hails from Querétaro. She spoke with Heraldo USA about the uncertain future she faces if deported, having entered the U.S. without the necessary permission. Like Lucía, thousands of others live in anxiety and uncertainty.
Relevant links
Mexican Information and Assistance Center (CIAM): Operates 24/7. Call 520 623 7874 from the United States and Canada.
From Mexico, call 001 520 623 78 74.
Single Consular Services Portal: https://miconsulado.sre. gob.mx/
Migration and Deportation Laws Observatory: https://consulmex.sre. gob.mx/index.php/ observatorio-de-leyes-ymedidas-antiinmigrantes
In 2023, it is estimated that the population of Mexican descent contributed 8% to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States, making it the highest contribution worldwide.
According to a survey conducted by the Mexican Secretary of the Interior 2024 among repatriated nationals to identify their primary needs, the most requested support included job training, access to social programs, and guidance for launching productive projects. While 27% desired to join the labor force—primarily in the service, agriculture, and construction sectors—only 1.3% sought temporary jobs and housing assistance. Nationals facing deportation undergo a three-stage return process, which the Secretary of the Interior oversees: consular assistance and protection, reception and support, and reintegration.
CONSULAR ASSISTANCE AND PROTECTION
This service will be provided in the United States through the consular network, managing tasks such as issuing consular IDs and identity documents, assisting with family reunification, retrieving personal belongings, offering information, and creating directories for repatriation modules and return links.
RECEPTION AND SUPPORT
This is expected to happen in border states and at AIFA airport, where returning nationals will have access to medical care, food, water, CURP registration, birth certificates, voter IDs (INE), options for returning home locations, and assistance with government support.
REINTEGRATION
To support successful reintegration, we will work to meet basic needs by organizing social service fairs, providing job opportunities, and encouraging participation in welfare programs. This support is dedicated to our heroes and heroines—brave men and women who courageously left Mexico for better opportunities. They aspire to avoid deportation, and if the need arises, they deserve a government that can offer them the opportunities that were out of reach before they emigrated.
PHOTOART: ARTURO RAMÍREZ
Mexico is ready
Librado Andrade aims to transform women’s boxing and establish new opportunities for women striving for success in the ring.
BY: ÉRIKA MONTOYA
Librado Andrade decided to reclaim “Adelita” from common stereotypes, restoring its essence as a symbol of struggle and resilience—this time, not in history books, but in the boxing ring.
The former Mexican boxer, who grew up among strong and resilient women, passionately believes in empowering those who see boxing to achieve their dreams. Together with his partner, Laura Leyva, Andrade founded Adelita Boxing. This organization has evolved into a platform dedicated to supporting and nurturing female boxers as they face challenges inside and outside the ring.
“In Mexico, you often hear, ‘There’s no support.’ This is especially true for women in boxing. That’s why we strive to teach them not to limit themselves and to recognize that they can take care of themselves and claim their place as athletes,” Andrade stated in an interview with Heraldo USA. He recalled hanging up his gloves in 2013 after a 14-year professional career.
Women’s boxing has forged its own path through hard work and determination, overcoming prejudice and historical constraints. However, it continues to establish itself today through initiatives that identify emerging talent and provide the resources necessary for confident and secure progress.
“It’s unfortunate to witness how some people in boxing take advantage of women without regard or transparency. I aim to demonstrate that there’s a better way, one that enables them to reach their goals without unnecessary risks,” said Andrade, who merges his experience as a former fighter with an educational approach to inspire change.
The concept for Adelita Boxing was initiated by Laura, who recognized the urgent need to protect and educate female boxers. “We acknowledge that boxing has flaws and practices that aren’t always ideal, but we also believe there are ways to enhance it. Often, there’s a misconception that sacrifice is required for growth, yet many individuals face exploitation. Nevertheless, improvements can occur when we teach them to market themselves and assert their space,” Andrade shared.
One of the organization’s initial steps was to upgrade the training equipment—an aspect often overlooked due to limited resources. “We saw gloves and headgear in such poor condition that I thought it might be safer to train without them,” Andrade recalled, emphasizing the importance of safety. Furthermore, Andrade and his team have focused on enhancing both the technical and mental components of training. “Boxing isn’t solely about physical strength; it also demands discipline, strategy, and confidence. Our role is to assist them in overcoming those barriers,” he explained. Adelita Boxing aims to help women discover their inner strength. They focus not only on new amateur and professional boxing talent but also on any woman ready to test her limits. With the knowledge Andrade has gained throughout his career, he aims to share his lessons, including the distinction between the “sparring mentality” and the “champion mentality.”
“When a man has a dream, he concentrates on achieving it and typically receives support. In contrast, while pursuing their goals, a woman must also care for her family, manage the household, and confront numerous responsibilities. Nevertheless, she does not give up. That’s what we want to emphasize,” he added.
Librado Andrade began boxing at a young age and, over 14 years, competed in three world championships against renowned fighters like Mikkel Kessler and Lucian Bute. With a record of 31 wins (24 by knockout) and only five losses, he emerged as one of the strongest super middleweights of his time.
His journey was not easy. He moved to the United States with his family at the age of 10 and worked in a fast-food restaurant to support himself before reaching the elite level of boxing. Today, that experience motivates him to inspire women from diverse backgrounds who are seeking opportunities. The name “Adelita” is not coincidental. For Andrade and his team, it symbolizes a woman who fights, thinks beyond barriers, and strives for something better.
“We strive to inspire all women—from homemakers raising their children to aspiring professional athletes. Each of their stories is valuable and equally commendable,” he stated. Andrade views Adelita Boxing as a personal endeavor and a means to contribute to the sport that has greatly enriched his life. He shared, “Boxing instilled values such as perseverance and hard work. I now aim to apply what I’ve
