Latest Economic Data – October 2014 Table of Contents (Clickable links) Industry Statistics ...............................................................................................................2 Industry Data ....................................................................................................................2 Industry Charts ................................................................................................................3 Macroeconomic Statistics ..................................................................................................9 Macroeconomic Data .......................................................................................................9 Macroeconomic Charts ................................................................................................. 11 Government Scheme Statistics ........................................................................................ 16 Government Data ........................................................................................................... 16 Government Charts........................................................................................................ 18 Regional Housing Statistics ............................................................................................. 22 Housing Data .................................................................................................................. 22 Housing Charts .............................................................................................................. 25 Notes, Sources and Descriptions ..................................................................................... 26
Industry Statistics Industry Data October
Total Domestic Gas Boiler Sales
Combi System Regular Total
Hot Water Storage Cylinders
Conventional Renewable Total
Radiators Solar Thermal Panels (m2)
Installed Smart Meters*
Total Flat Plate Vacuum Total Electric Gas Total
2014
2013
128,823
141,246
13,546
Year-to-date % change
Previous 12 months % change
November 2013 October 2014
November 2012 October 2013
% change
2014
2013
-8.80%
1,053,224
1,027,227
2.53%
1,291,341
1,245,258
3.70%
13,307
1.80%
109,605
100,370
9.20%
130,232
122,276
6.51%
28,300
31,091
-8.98%
210,754
212,579
-0.86%
261,650
258,438
1.24%
170,669
185,644
-8.07%
1,373,583
1,340,176
2.49%
1,683,223
1,625,972
3.52%
42,703
43,240
-1.24%
381,048
369,126
3.23%
447,639
441,653
1.36%
3,083
3,211
-3.99%
28,202
29,893
-5.66%
33,137
36,840
-10.05%
45,786
46,451
-1.43%
409,250
399,019
2.56%
480,776
478,493
0.48%
629,814
588,883
6.95%
5,185,367
4,833,402
7.28%
6,179,336
5,775,408
6.99%
1,929.4980
2,145.9800
-10.09%
22321.204
24342.586
-8.30%
25700.394
29523.23
-12.95%
368.7620
397.6360
-7.26%
5384.047
6924.958
-22.25%
6682.911
8517.563
-21.54%
2,298.2600
2,543.6160
-9.65%
27705.251
31267.544
-11.39%
32383.305
38040.793
-14.87%
60,216
45,456
32.47%
121,380
58,134
108.79%
234,615
59,841
292.06%
37,113
35,130
5.64%
74,593
46,093
61.83%
149,513
47,695
213.48%
97,329
80,586
20.78%
195,973
104,227
88.03%
384,128
107,536
257.21%
* Quarterly data 2
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Industry Charts
Boiler Sales by Type (Oct 2014 YTD)
Combi
System
Regular
3
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Total Monthly Boiler Sales 200000
180000
160000
Monthly Boiler Sales
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
Month
4
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Hot Water Storage Cyclinder Sales by Type (Oct 2014 YTD)
Conventional
Renewable
5
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Total Monthly Hot Water Storage Cylinder Sales 60000
Hot Water Storae Cylinder Sales
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
Month
6
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Solar Thermal Panels Sales by Type (YTD Oct 2014)
Flat Plate
7
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Vacuum
Monthly Solar Thermal Panel Sales 5000.0000 4500.0000
Solar Thermal Panel Sales m²
4000.0000
3500.0000 3000.0000 2500.0000 2000.0000 1500.0000 1000.0000 500.0000
0.0000
Month
8
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Macroeconomic Statistics Macroeconomic Data October
Housing
Consumers
Starts* Completions* House price index* Average House Price (£)* Transactions** Mortgages £m Consumer confidence Retail sales value including fuel Retail sales value excluding fuel New car sales
Real GDP (CVM, £m)* Real GDP per capita (CVM, £)* Inflation - CPI Inflation - RPI Macroeconomic Inflation - PPI (Output) Indicators Inflation - PPI (Input) Unemployment rate (%) Economically inactive rate (%) Net debt (£bn) Net debt (% of GDP)
Year-to-date % change
2014
2013
33,000
32,600
1.23%
105,620
92,000
14.80%
31,130
28,740
8.32%
88,690
81,060
9.41%
374.50
338.94
10.49%
£188,810
£170,918
10.47%
98,490
95,390
3.25%
896,310
£19,000
£17,545
8.29%
£173,071
£142,367
21.57%
-2
-11
108.5
105.6
2.75%
110.8
107.2
3.36%
179,714
157,314
14.24%
2,137,910
1,952,238
9.51%
£428,415
£415,915
3.01%
£6,595
£6,478
1.81%
128.5
126.9
1.26%
257.7
251.9
2.30%
108
108.5
-0.46%
105.9
115.6
-8.39%
6
7.1
-15.49%
22.2
22.3
-0.45%
£1,449
£1,368
5.97%
79.5
78.2
1.66%
9
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2014
2013
% change
*Quarterly data **September 2014 is most recent available data
Energy Price Indices
Gas* Electricity* All fuels*
137.9
131.3
5.10%
128.2
121.4
5.58%
112.0
110.4
1.42%
10
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Macroeconomic Charts
Property Transactions 120,000
Monthly Property Transactions
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0 May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Month
11
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Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Consumer Confidence 5
0
-5
Consumer Confidence
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
Month
12
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Retail Sales Value
110
108
Retail Sales Value
106
104
102
100
98
Month
13
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Inflation 130.0
125.0
Inflation Index
120.0
115.0
110.0
105.0
100.0
Month CPI
PPI - Output
PPI - Input
14
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Net Debt (% of GDP) 81
80
79
% of GDP
78
77
76
75
74
73
Month
15
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Government Scheme Statistics Government Data October 2014 Non-Domestic RHI Applications
Domestic RHI Applications
Boiler Installations
Measures Installed using GDF
Total
116
2013
Year-to-date % change
2014
219
-47.03%
5,358
ASHP GSHP Biomass Solar Thermal
6,289
GD Finance ECO GDHIF Boiler GDHIF FGHR GD Cashback
265
178
48.88%
1090
3,997
21,831
-81.69%
124673
895
-92.40%
3810
Boilers Cavity Wall Insulation Loft Insulation Micro-generation Other Heating Other Insulation Solid Wall Insulation Window Glazing
2,641 3,690 3,867
825 793 68 1,564 293 669 1,981 519 673 1,170 10
16
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2013 2,199
% change 143.66%
GD Assessments
GD Plans
Total New Plans Pending Plans Live Plans Total Plans
33,191
16,672
99.08%
259,875
2,434
360
576.11%
11,057
1,534
594
158.25%
8,009
3,239
219
1379.00%
16,488
7,207
1,173
514.41%
35,554
17
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101,848
155.16%
Government Charts
Non-domestic RHI Applications 1,800
1,600
1,400
Applications
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Month
18
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Domestic RHI Applications by Technology
ASHP
GSHP
Biomass
Solar Thermal
19
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Green Deal Assessments 40000
35000
30000
Assessments
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
20
Month
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Total Green Deal Plans
8000
7000
6000
Plans
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0 May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Month
21
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Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Regional Housing Statistics Housing Data October
Average House Price* (£)
* Quarterly data
North Yorkshire & Humberside North West East Midlands West Midlands East Anglia Outer South-East Outer Metropolitan London South West Wales Scotland Northern Ireland UK
% change
2014
2013
£121,990
£116,909
4.35%
£145,265
£137,634
5.54%
£146,760
£138,375
6.06%
£157,293
£145,930
7.79%
£164,067
£151,035
8.63%
£194,680
£175,323
11.04%
£234,370
£207,129
13.15%
£298,558
£261,090
14.35%
£401,072
£331,338
21.05%
£209,121
£191,422
9.25%
£144,096
£137,169
5.05%
£142,288
£135,192
5.25%
£119,782
£108,671
10.22%
£188,810
£170,918
10.47%
22
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October 2014 Black Country Buckinghamshire Thames Valley Cheshire and Warrington Coast to Capital Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly Coventry and Warwickshire Cumbria
House Starts* **
* Quarterly data ** Q2 is most recent available data
Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire Dorset Enterprise M3 Gloucestershire Greater Birmingham and Solihull Greater Cambridge and Greater Peterborough Lincolnshire Greater Manchester Heart of the South West Hertfordshire Humber Lancashire Leeds City Region Leicester and Leicestershire Liverpool City Region Pan London New Anglia North Eastern Local Enterprise Partnerships Northamptonshire Oxfordshire Sheffield City Region Solent South East South East Midlands Stoke and Staffordshire Swindon and Wiltshire Tees Valley Thames Valley Berkshire The Marches Enterprise Partnership West of England Worcestershire York and North Yorkshire
23
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2013
% change
650
700
-7.14%
450
490
-8.16%
620
650
-4.62%
1,520
1,090
39.45%
2,370
540
338.89%
730
400
82.50%
360
300
20.00%
1,000
870
14.94%
490
410
19.51%
1,230
1,660
-25.90%
570
580
-1.72%
530
480
10.42%
1,180
1,200
-1.67%
740
590
25.42%
1,190
1,180
0.85%
1,790
1,570
14.01%
570
770
-25.97%
230
350
-34.29%
1,130
590
91.53%
1,680
1,440
16.67%
1,180
780
51.28%
450
700
-35.71%
4,600
5,040
-8.73%
1,120
1,010
10.89%
1,290
1,240
4.03%
730
710
2.82%
510
490
4.08%
970
840
15.48%
1,040
1,110
-6.31%
2,550
2,000
27.50%
1,880
1,780
5.62%
530
520
1.92%
890
640
39.06%
540
590
-8.47%
550
600
-8.33%
880
580
51.72%
960
680
41.18%
580
500
16.00%
680
510
33.33%
October 2014 Black Country Buckinghamshire Thames Valley Cheshire and Warrington Coast to Capital Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly Coventry and Warwickshire Cumbria
House Completions* **
* Quarterly data ** Q2 is most recent available data
Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire Dorset Enterprise M3 Gloucestershire Greater Birmingham and Solihull Greater Cambridge and Greater Peterborough Lincolnshire Greater Manchester Heart of the South West Hertfordshire Humber Lancashire Leeds City Region Leicester and Leicestershire Liverpool City Region Pan London New Anglia North Eastern Local Enterprise Partnerships Northamptonshire Oxfordshire Sheffield City Region Solent South East South East Midlands Stoke and Staffordshire Swindon and Wiltshire Tees Valley Thames Valley Berkshire The Marches Enterprise Partnership West of England Worcestershire York and North Yorkshire
24
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2013
% change
490
560
-12.50%
370
500
-26.00%
460
450
2.22%
1,100
1,620
-32.10%
540
410
31.71%
450
530
-15.09%
370
230
60.87%
970
890
8.99%
370
350
5.71%
910
950
-4.21%
530
550
-3.64%
660
500
32.00%
1,240
1,070
15.89%
630
690
-8.70%
910
810
12.35%
1,480
1,470
0.68%
560
590
-5.08%
400
360
11.11%
590
500
18.00%
1,210
1,200
0.83%
960
800
20.00%
430
400
7.50%
5,480
4,550
20.44%
940
970
-3.09%
970
940
3.19%
730
440
65.91%
320
250
28.00%
860
810
6.17%
840
880
-4.55%
1,850
1,780
3.93%
1,930
1,490
29.53%
470
460
2.17%
630
540
16.67%
470
280
67.86%
460
720
-36.11%
390
490
-20.41%
750
780
-3.85%
470
350
34.29%
480
350
37.14%
Housing Charts
Regional Average House Price 200,000 190,000 180,000
Average Price (ÂŁ)
170,000 160,000 150,000 140,000 130,000 120,000
110,000 100,000 Q4 - 2012
Q1 - 2013
Q2 - 2013
Q3 - 2013
Q4 - 2013
Q1 - 2014
Quarter Wales
Scotland
Northern Ireland
25
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UK
Q2 - 2014
Q3 - 2014
Notes, Sources and Descriptions INDUSTRY TOTAL DOMESTIC GAS BOILER SALES
Description Number of combi boilers sold in preceding month, within the domestic market. Number of system boilers sold in preceding month, within the domestic market. Number of regular boilers sold in preceding month, within the domestic market.
Source Member companies
Total
Total number of boilers (all types) sold in preceding month, within the domestic market.
Member companies
Conventional
Number of conventional hot water storage cylinders sold in preceding month, within the domestic market. Number of renewable hot water storage cylinders sold in preceding month, within the domestic market. Total number of conventional hot water storage cylinders (all types) sold in preceding month, within the domestic market.
Member companies
Total
Total number of radiators sold in preceding month.
Member companies
Flat Plate
Solar Thermal Panels (Flat Plate) sold in preceding month, expressed in square metres.
Member companies
Vacuum
Solar Thermal Panels (Vacuum) sold in preceding month, expressed in square metres.
Member companies
Total
Solar Thermal Panels (All) sold in preceding month, expressed in square metres.
Member companies
Electric
Number of electricity smart meters installed in previous quarter.
www.gov.uk - Smart meters statistics
Combi System Regular
HOT WATER STORAGE CYLINDERS
Renewable Total
RADIATORS SOLAR THERMAL PANELS (M2)
INSTALLED SMART METERS 26
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Member companies Member companies
Member companies Member companies
Gas
Number of gas smart meters installed in previous quarter.
www.gov.uk - Smart meters statistics
Total
Total number smart meters installed in previous quarter.
www.gov.uk - Smart meters statistics
Description A dwelling is counted as started on the date work begins on the laying of the foundation. A dwelling is regarded as complete when it becomes ready for occupation or when a completion certificate is issued. Average UK house price, adjusted for inflation using the Retail Price Index. In order to control for variations in the mix of properties being sold, complex statistical methods are employed to calculate this statistic.
Source www.gov.uk - House building statistics www.gov.uk - House building statistics Nationwide Building Society House Price Index
House price index
Average house price. Expressed as an index number for ease of comparison with prior values.
Nationwide Building Society House Price Index
Average House Price (£)
Average UK house price, unadjusted for inflation.
Nationwide Building Society House Price Index
Transactions
Estimate of the number of residential and non-residential property transactions in the UK and its constituent countries.
www.gov.uk - Monthly Property Transactions
Gross mortgage lending (£m)
All new lending done in a given period, including remortgaging and new loans for house purchase.
Council of Mortgage Lenders Statistics
MACROECONOMIC
HOUSING
Starts Completions House prices (£) inflation (RPI) adjusted
27
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CONSUMERS
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
Consumer confidence
Measures the level of optimism that consumers have about the performance of the economy in the next 12 months. The GfK Consumer Confidence is derived from a survey of 2,000 consumers who are asked to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions including personal financial situation, climate for major purchases, overall economic situation and savings level.
GfK - Consumer Confidence
Retail sales value including fuel Retail sales value excluding fuel
An aggregated measure of the sales of retail goods over a stated time period, including fuel sales. An aggregated measure of the sales of retail goods over a stated time period, excluding fuel sales.
Office of National Statistics - Key Economic Time Series Office of National Statistics - Key Economic Time Series
New car sales
Number of new car registrations in the preceding month.
Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders
Real GDP (CVM)
Gross Domestic Product at chained volume measure. Monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders. The effects of inflation are accounted for using a chained volume measure.
Office of National Statistics - Key Economic Time Series
Real GDP per capita (CVM) Inflation - CPI
Real GDP (CVM) divided by the number of people in the country.
Office of National Statistics - Key Economic Time Series Office of National Statistics - Key Economic Time Series
Inflation - RPI
The retail price index (RPI) and the consumer price index (CPI) are both measures of the price of goods and services in the UK. The retail price index, or the RPI, shows the changes in the cost of living. It reflects the movement of prices in a range of goods and services used regularly, such as food, heating, housing, household goods, bus fares and petrol.
The retail price index (RPI) and the consumer price index (CPI) are both measures of the price of goods and services in the UK.
28
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Office of National Statistics - Key Economic Time Series
ENERGY PRICE INDICES
Inflation - PPI (Output)
The PPI provides an estimate of the price of goods bought and sold by UK manufacturers. The output price index is a measure of the price of goods and services sold as output by domestic producers.
Office of National Statistics - Key Economic Time Series
Inflation - PPI (Input)
The PPI provides an estimate of the price of goods bought and sold by UK manufacturers. The input price index measures the price of materials and fuels bought by UK manufacturers for processing.
Office of National Statistics - Key Economic Time Series
Unemployment rate (%)
The unemployment rate gives the number of unemployed persons as a percentage of the labour force.
Office of National Statistics - Key Economic Time Series
Economically inactive rate (%)
People who are not in work, but who do not satisfy the criteria for ILO unemployment (wanting a job, seeking in the last four weeks and available to start in the next two), expressed as a percentage of the 16 and over population.
Office of National Statistics - Key Economic Time Series
Net Debt (ÂŁbn)
Net government debt excluding financial intervention.
Office of National Statistics - Key Economic Time Series
Net Debt (% of GDP)
Net government debt excluding financial intervention, expressed as a percentage of GDP.
Office of National Statistics - Key Economic Time Series
Gas
Gas price, expressed as an index number.
Electricity
Electricity price, expressed as an index number.
All fuels
All fuel price, expressed as an index number.
www.gov.uk - Domestic energy price statistics www.gov.uk - Domestic energy price statistics www.gov.uk - Domestic energy price statistics
Total
Description Number of non-domestic Renewable Heat Incentive applications.
GOVERNMENT NON-DOMESTIC RHI APPLICATIONS 29
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Source www.gov.uk - RHI Monthly deployment data
DOMESTIC RHI APPLICATIONS
BOILER INSTALLATIONS
MEASURES INSTALLED USING GDF
ASHP
Domestic Renewable Heat Incentive applications - Air source heat pump
www.gov.uk - RHI Monthly deployment data
GSHP Biomass
Domestic Renewable Heat Incentive applications - Ground source heat pump Domestic Renewable Heat Incentive applications - Biomass
Solar Thermal
Domestic Renewable Heat Incentive applications - Solar thermal
www.gov.uk - RHI Monthly deployment data www.gov.uk - RHI Monthly deployment data www.gov.uk - RHI Monthly deployment data
GD Finance
Boiler installations using Green Deal Finance.
www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics
ECO
Boiler installations using Energy Companies Obligation.
www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics
GDHIF Boiler
Boiler installations through Green Deal Home Improvement Fund (Boiler).
www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics
GDHIF FGHR
Boiler installations through Green Deal Home Improvement Fund (Flue Gas Heat Recovery).
www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics
GD Cashback
Boiler installations using Green Deal Cashback voucher.
www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics
Boilers
Boilers installed using Green Deal Finance.
Cavity Wall Insulation
Cavity Wall Insulation installed using Green Deal Finance.
Loft Insulation
Loft insulation installed using Green Deal Finance.
Micro-generation
Micro-generation measures installed using Green Deal Finance.
Other Heating
Other heating measures installed using Green Deal Finance.
www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics
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GD ASSESSMENTS
GD PLANS
Other Insulation
Other insulation measures installed using Green Deal Finance.
www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics
Solid Wall Insulation
Solid wall insulation installed using Green Deal Finance.
Window Glazing
Window glazing installed using Green Deal Finance.
www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics
Total
Number of Green Deal assessments.
www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics
New Plans
A Green Deal plan is considered "new" after a customer has obtained a quote from a Green Deal Provider and confirmed they wish to proceed.
www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics
Pending Plans
A Green Deal plan is considered "pending" when a plan has been signed by the customer, progress is being made to install Green Deal Plan measures and the Plan is being finalised so that charging can start.
www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics
Live Plans
A Green Deal plan is considered "live" after the measures have been installed in the property, the information required to disclose the Plan to future bill payers has been attached to the Plan and the energy supplier has all the information required to bill Green Deal Charges.
www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics
Total Plans
Total of new, pending and live Green Deal plans.
www.gov.uk - Green Deal and ECO Statistics
All Regions
Description Average house price, segmented by regions.
Source Nationwide Building Society House Price Index
REGIONAL HOUSING DATA AVERAGE HOUSE PRICE
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HOUSE STARTS
All Regions
A dwelling is counted as started on the date work begins on the laying of the foundation, segmented by regions.
www.gov.uk - House building statistics
HOUSE COMPLETIONS
All Regions
A dwelling is regarded as complete when it becomes ready for occupation or when a completion certificate is issued, segmented by regions.
www.gov.uk - House building statistics
32
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