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Q3 2023
Is the Local Real Estate Market Cooling? DATA-DRIVEN REPORT FOR THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 2023
Introduction The answer is a definitive “YES,” but the situation is nuanced. To begin with, comparing the first nine months of 2023 to the same period in 2022 reveals a 22% decline in overall sales, a 29% drop in dollar volume, and a 24% increase in available inventory. However, this isn’t a straightforward case of supply versus demand. While inventory has increased by 66% since the end of the COVID era, it’s important to note that we are still at historically low levels. For perspective, between 2010 and 2019, the average number of active listings at the end of Q3 was 517, compared to the current 259—a 50% decrease. So, what’s driving this trend? The “COVID Buying Frenzy” caused prices to skyrocket so rapidly that it pushed at least 30% of prospective buyers out of our market in 2020-21. For instance, in 2019, the median sale price for a single-family home in the Town of Jackson was $1.288 million, whereas today it stands at $2.7 million, a staggering 110% increase for the first nine months of 2023. It’s worth noting that this surge in values wasn’t unique to our locality; many communities across the country experienced similar rapid price increases. Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates in an effort to combat inflation has had a significant impact. Conventional interest rates
have doubled over the past three years, making it increasingly difficult for both local residents and potential second homeowners to qualify for mortgages or justify property purchases. Another noteworthy statistic: 69% of all real estate transactions in 2023 have been conducted in cash. The higher interest rates not only priced potential local buyers out of the market but also deterred many locals who were contemplating selling their homes. For those without substantial equity built up, the prospect of financing their next purchase at double the interest rate of their current home loan is daunting, further exacerbating the inventory shortage. Nevertheless, there are still bright spots in our market. Homes priced under $1 million and condominiums/ townhomes under $500,000 continue to be in high demand. Additionally, there are properties scattered throughout the valley that are hitting the market at or below current market values and selling within a few weeks. To illustrate the escalation in prices throughout the valley from 2019 to the present, we have provided specific examples. If you’re interested in knowing how much your property’s value has increased during this period, please don’t hesitate to reach out to us.
Westbank
Single-family Home
Median sale price went from $2.5 million to $4.4 million (up 76%)
Westbank
Residential Vacant Land
Median sale price went from $1.75 million to $4.5 million (up 157%)
Westbank
Condo/Townhome
Median sale price went from $949,000 to $1.8 million (up 90%)
Town of Jackson
Single-family Home
Median sale price went from $1.288 million to $2.7 million (up 110%)
Town of Jackson
Residential Vacant Land
Median sale price went from $675,000 to $1.05 million (up 55%)
Town of Jackson
Condo/Townhome
Median sale price went from $588,000 to $990,000 (up 68%) Continued
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JACKSON HOLE REPORT Q3 2023
North of Gros Ventre River
Single-family Home
Median sale price went from $1.725 million to $4.15 million (up 141%)
North of Gros Ventre River
Residential Vacant Land
Median sale price went from $875,000 to $1.95 million (up 123%)
North of Gros Ventre River
Condo/Townhome
Median sale price went from $810,000 to $1.995 million. (up 146%)
South of Gros Ventre River
Single-family Home
Median sale price went from $1.75 million to $3.475 million (up 99%)
South of Gros Ventre River
Residential Vacant Land
South of Gros Ventre River
Condo/Townhome
Why is the median sale price a more accurate indicator of a market shift than the average sale price? When you have a market where one home sells for $1 million and another one down the street for $45 million, it becomes hard to know if the market is shifting. For example, so far in 2023, 16 homes have sold for over $10 million. On the other hand, the median sale price is more accurate because it’s much harder to move with high-end sales.
Median sale price went from $1.3 million to $2.35 million (2022) (up 81%) *not enough sales in 2023 to establish a median. Median sale price went from $640,000 to $1.5 million (up 134%)
“Median Sale Price versus Average Sale Price”: The average sale price is calculated by adding all the sale prices for homes sold in a specific area within a specified time frame and dividing that total by the number of properties sold. The median sale price, on the other hand, is the sale price in the middle of the data set when you arrange all the sale prices from low to high. The median sale price, then, represents the figure at which half of the properties in the area sell at a higher price and the other half at a lower price.
NOTE: As we go into our fall and winter selling seasons, expect inventory levels to decrease continuously until spring 2024.
When you start your day knowing that
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luxury is right outside your door. View Our Active Listings: Engel & Völkers 70 S. King Street . Jackson . WY 83001 . +1 307.201.8800 Learn more at jacksonhole.evrealestate.com
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JACKSON HOLE REPORT Q3 2023
DATA-DRIVEN REPORT FOR THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 2023 The Jackson Hole Report is the oldest, most accurate and comprehensive real estate market report in Teton County, WY. We derive our statistics from a privately maintained database that tracks every single sale, not just the transactions reported through MLS. NOTE: Only 68% of sale prices valley-wide so far in 2023 were reported to MLS.
Overall number of properties under contract is down 57% to 34 transactions, and dollar volume is down 40% to $311 million. In contrast, the average and median list prices under contract continue to break records for the first nine months of any given year—up 30% ($5.12 million) and 3% ($3.3 million), respectively. NOTE: Currently, only 15% of properties under contract are listed for under $1 million, 29% are between $1 and $3 million, 21% are between $3 and $5 million, and 35% are $5+ million.
Overall Market The overall number of sales (255) and dollar volume ($1.013 billion) decreased 22% and 29%, respectively. Following suit, the average sale price decreased 8%, and the median sale price decreased 9% for the first nine months of 2023. These decreases reflect the dramatic increase in interest rates and the continued lack of available overall inventory under $1 million. This is also the first time in nine years we’ve seen an increase in sales under $1 million (up 21%). Of those 34 sales, 27 were condo/townhomes. NOTE: Overall sales of $5+ million decreased 45%, but overall sales of $10+ million increased 17%. Out of the 128 home sales to date, only two sold for under $1 million.
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Overall inventory of active listings has increased by 24% with 259 listings. Following suit, the average listing price is up 4% ($6.56 million), breaking yet another record for the first nine months of the year. The segment with the largest increase of inventory was condo/ townhomes with available inventory up 67%. NOTE: There are currently no homes listed in the entire valley for under $1 million, and only eight are listed for under $2 million.
The Luxury Market—properties priced at $5 million and above— reports a 25% decrease in sales. Closer inspection finds that 16 of the 77 high-end sales closed for more than $10 million—down 33% from last year—and seven sold for more than $15 million. NOTE: While the number of $5+ million sales represented 30% of the total transactions, this segment accounted for 85% of the overall dollar volume for the first nine months of 2023.
JACKSON HOLE REPORT Q3 2023
Single-Family Homes Single-family home sales are down 11% when compared to the first nine months of 2022. In contrast, the average sale price is up 10%, shattering yet another record at $5.2 million. Over half of the activity (60%) was in the $3+ million segment (77 sales). The slower increase of inventory levels is helping to stabilize market values. In 2023, the hot sale price for single-family homes— the price range in which 49 sales (38%) have occurred— has hovered between $1 to $3 million. The under $1 million segment only registered two sales so far this year, which accounts for only 1.5% of overall home sales. As of October 1, the least expensive home on the market—a 1,048 sq. ft. two-bedroom, one-bath home in South Park—is listed for $1.073 million. On the flip side, the most expensive listing is $37.5 million. This retreat north of Wilson features a 9,696 sq. ft. four-bedroom, seven-bath home built in 1996 with two separate garages. The 4.53-acre property is directly east of Teton Village. To summarize: With inventory levels increasing more slowly and market values stabilizing, we predict the Seller’s market could be disappearing. If you are a Seller in this segment, make sure you are competitive in your pricing. If you are a Buyer, be prepared! Wellpriced properties are still being snapped up quickly.
The Jackson Hole Report is the most widely distributed and anticipated quarterly newsletter in Jackson Hole. To guarantee the most successful outcome in your next real estate transaction, call us today.
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Hot spot for home sales: The Town of Jackson and South Park experienced the largest number of sales with 38 homes and 28 homes, respectively.
Single-family homes under contract are only down 42% when compared to the first nine months of 2022. In contrast, the average and median asking prices are up 13% and 5%, respectively. Of the 22 homes under contract, none are listed for under $1 million while 11 are listed for over $5 million.
Available inventory of listed homes is currently up 15% and dollar volume is up 30%. Following suit, the average and median list prices again broke records at $8.1 million (up 13%) and $5.25 million (up 5%), respectively. The lack of inventory in the under $1 million segment continues with only two homes having closed in this segment to date. When compared to 2022, inventory in the $1 to $2 million segment is down 20%, whereas the $10+ million segment is up 48% (31 listings).
SINGLE-FAMILY HOME RECORD BREAKERS • Average sale price - $5.2 million • Average list price under contract - $7.05 million • Median list price under contract - $4.995 million • Average list price - $8.1 million • Median list price - $5.25 million
JACKSON HOLE REPORT Q3 2023
Condos & Townhomes Condo and townhome sales are down 23% when compared to the first nine months of 2022. Following suit, the average and median sale prices are down 9% and 6%, respectively. Condo sales under $500,000 are non-existent so far in 2023. Nearly half of the activity (45%) was between the $1 to $3 million segment with the $3+ million segment sales down 39% (17 sales). With available inventory increasing, expect to see market values stabilizing. To summarize: Inventory is on the rise, continuing demand in the under $1 million segment. With increasing inventory, if you are a Seller, make sure you have great photos and are competitive in your pricing. If you are a Buyer, be prepared to step into a bidding war, especially in the under $1 million segment.
If you have plans to sell your Jackson Hole property this winter, or you would like to know how to compete in this Seller’s market, please call for a free comparative market LISTING ID # analysis.
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The hot spot for condo/townhome sales lies under $1 million where 27 sales occurred, accounting for 34% of all condo/ townhome sales. Of those 27 sales, all but one was in the Town of Jackson. Of all the 80 condos sold in 2023, the Town of Jackson led with 63% of total sales followed by the Westbank with 20%. NOTE: With no sales under $500,000 in 2023 and no condos currently listed in that price range (the least expensive is currently $625,000), it’s clear the window of opportunity in this price range has closed.
The number of condos/townhomes under contract is down 53% when compared to the end of the first three quarters of 2022. Following suit, the average list price is down 69% ($1.27 million), and the median list price is down 72% ($1.05 million). NOTE: Of the condos under contract, four are listed under $1 million. The price segment with the greatest demand continues to be condos under $1 million. Supply is steadily increasing in this price range with eighteen listings at the end of Q3 (up 350%). Based on the 2023 sales pace thus far, current inventory of condos under $1 million will sustain the market for six months.
Available inventory of condos/townhomes is up 67% so far in 2023. While the average and median list prices are down, they are both the second highest ever for the third quarter coming in at $2.197 million (down 11%) and $1.499 million (down 6%), respectively. Here’s how the inventory breaks down: 18 listings between $650,000 and $1 million; 14 between $1 and $2 million; nine between $2 and $3 million; and 13 over $3 million.
JACKSON HOLE REPORT Q3 2023
Vacant Land The 2023 hot spot for single-family vacant land sales is Spring Gulch / Gros Ventre Buttes with seven sales. Single-family vacant lot sales were down 15% in the number of sales in the first nine months of 2023. In contrast, the average sale price is $4.1 million (up 21%). The lack of sales and the increase in the average sale price can be directly linked to the lack of available inventory below $3 million. To summarize: While the number of sales has dropped dramatically, inventory is still at a historic low. Market values nearly valleywide have stabilized. Many price reductions this year were from overpriced listings. Once the Seller brought the listing price down to the current market, it sold. If you are a Seller, be sure you are competitive in your pricing, especially if you plan to sell quickly. For Buyers, if you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for a sign: “Now is the time.”
Hire us as your Advocate. If you are looking for a property in today’s tight inventory market you need to hire us as your advocate. We will find what you are looking for, and then educate and prepare LISTINGyou ID # to win at today’s real estate bidding wars.
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The number of single-family vacant lots under contract is down 80% when compared to this time last year. Following suit, the dollar volume is down 73%. The reasons for this slowdown can be directly linked to the number of active listings available for under $1 million, and the current median list price of $2.95 million. At the end of Q3 2020, there were 29 active listings for under $1 million. Today there are only five to choose from. If you look back to 2020, the median list price was $1.075 million. That’s a 274% increase in just three years, which has priced many would-be second homeowners out of the market.
Available inventory of listed lots in the third quarter is up 20%. Following suit, the median list price is recordbreaking with a 7% increase. Based on the 2023 sales pace thus far, current inventory of single-family vacant land will sustain the market for 18 months. NOTE: Current inventory is the fourth lowest in 40 years for the end of the third quarter.
Vacant Residential Land record breakers at the end of Q3: • Average sale price - $4.1 million • Median list price - $2.95 million
JACKSON HOLE REPORT Q3 2023
F E AT U R E D L I S T I N G 2 7 4 5 TR ADE R R OAD L IST PR ICE : $ 1 1 ,7 50, 0 0 0 Perched high above the valley floor, this property boasts some of the most breathtaking views in all of Jackson Hole, including the Grand Teton, the Sleeping Indian, and the Snake River Valley. One of the most awe-inspiring properties in Jackson Hole, this residence, spread across an expansive 4,268 square feet, boasts four bedrooms, three and a half baths, unparalleled vistas, seclusion, and tranquility. Recently remodeled with meticulous attention to detail, the kitchen and primary bathroom showcase the exquisite craftsmanship of Boffi, a renowned Italian luxury brand. Featuring dual stoves and hand selected countertops, the kitchen effortlessly combines style and functionality. Listed by The Viehman Group (307) 690-0621 group@jacksonholereport.com LEARN MORE AT 2745TRADER.COM
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JACKSON HOLE REPORT Q3 2023
What Is a Comparative Market Analysis?
What is your home worth?
A comparative market analysis (CMA) estimates a property’s price based on the currently listed and recently sold properties in the immediate area and considers a property’s location, views, privacy, age, size, construction, style, and condition among other factors.
GE T A FRE E E VALUAT I O N
A CMA helps sellers choose the best listing prices for their properties. The “best” price is one that’s not so low it leaves the seller in more debt or so high the property won’t sell. For buyers, a CMA can verify if a property is in the right price range and help pinpoint a competitive offer that will be taken seriously—without going overboard. Most of our Property Owner clients start their process of selling by receiving a CMA. Some decide to list right away, and others plan to in the future. Regardless of when you decide to sell, we will continue to update your CMA annually or semiannually, depending on your preference. Many of our clients find these reports valuable when Estate Planning or filing year-end taxes. Others just want to know where their investment stands in today’s market. Our team offers a free, no-obligation, comprehensive market analysis to all clients and customers. To get started, fill out the form on our website or you can print out the certificate on this page and either scan it back or drop it in the snail mail.
Dear Clients and Friends, The real estate business has been through a lot in the past few years. We have helped our clients navigate these waters, and we are here to help you with one of your most valuable investments, your home. We have hand picked our team of advisors, and we are dedicated to competence and your success in the real estate market. We’re raising the bar with the level of service and dedication to the details that matter most when it comes to your investment. We invite you to come in and meet the team. Once you’re here, you are like family.
Sincerely, The Engel & Völkers Team
Disclaimer: A CMA is an opinion of price and is not a certified appraisal of the market value of the property. If such an appraisal is desired, the service of a certified appraiser must be obtained.
Wondering what your home is worth? We can help with a FREE no-obligation home evaluation!
COMMUNITY HOUSING
FUND
JACKSON HOLE COMMUNITY HOUSING TRUST
CREATING AFFORDABLE HOUSING OPPORTUNITIES FOR TETON COUNTY’S ESSENTIAL EMPLOYEES. The Teton Board of REALTORS® Community Housing Fund allows every agent and seller to designate proceeds or a portion of their commission to fund affordable housing in Teton County at every transaction. With concern about the rapidly changing character of Jackson Hole and the ability for essential employees to afford stable, secure housing, Devon Viehman partnered with the Teton Board of REALTORS® to create The Community Housing Fund. The TBOR Community Housing Fund allows every agent and seller to designate proceeds or a portion of their commission to fund affordable housing in Teton County at every transaction. Learn more at communityhousingfund.com.
TCSD HOUSING PROJECT
TCSD HOUSING PROJECT
$643,675 R A I S E D T O DAT E
TETON COUNTY IDAHO JOINT HOUSING AUTHORITY
You have what others dream of WE KNOW HOW TO SELL IT BEST
WE ARE ENGEL & VÖLKERS
If you are looking to sell your property efficiently, leave it to our real estate experts to find the right buyer throughout our worldwide network and global marketing reach. We stand for customized service, precise property valuation and targeted marketing. Please contact us for a personal consultation or a free property valuation - by phone, online or in our shop. We look forward to speaking with you.
Engel & Völkers . . Jackson Hole Star Valley Sublette . Dubois . Teton Valley . Swan Valley jacksonhole.evrealestate.com | starvalley.evrealestate.com | sublette.evrealestate.com
©2023 Engel & Völkers. All rights reserved. Each brokerage independently owned and operated. Engel & Völkers and its independent License Partners are Equal Opportunity Employers and fully support the principles of the Fair Housing Act.
Extensive · Domestic · Global · Exposure
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ot all properties are created equal, yet Engel & Völkers values every home our advisors represent and will dedicate the expertise, time, and unmatched marketing resources we possess to help you sell your
property to the right buyer at the right price. Our Extensive Domestic & Global Exposure (EDGE) platform provides unprecedented reach to get your property in front of qualified consumers, whether they are next door, in The Americas or abroad, because they deserve to see it, and you deserve to sell it. Working with an Engel & Völkers advisor gives you the EDGE that allows each home listing extensive online exposure in major markets where a potential buyer for your property may exist, with today’s savvy consumers and international clientele. But we don’t stop there ...
E
ngel & Völkers provides luxury services to each of its clients worldwide. With a global network of more than 16,000 real estate professionals in over 37 countries, we not only reach millions of targeted consumers,
but we collaborate with our fellow Engel & Völkers advisors to strategically handpick and refer buyers for the specific properties they seek ... like yours.
Our decades-deep knowledge of the valley, combined with the most accurate database, and our full-service property management company, make us your Local Real Estate Experts. The JACKSON HOLE REPORT is published semi-annually with additional email updates for the first and third quarters. While other agents attempt to report on our market with MLS statistics only, we track every single transaction in Teton County. Consider, for instance, the first nine months of 2023: only 68% of sales prices valley-wide were reported to MLS. In contrast, we have logged information on each and every sale on a daily basis. Our data-driven report is the most accurate and trusted real estate news source in Teton County. If you would like to sign up for these quarterly email updates or need more detailed information about our market, feel free to either call or email your Engel & Volkers Real Estate Advisor. Whether you are pricing your property to sell in this competitive market or weighing the right time to buy, rest assured that when you are our client, you have the upper hand via access to current market statistics and our impeccable level of service and personal attention. For a free comparative market analysis, please contact your Engel & Volkers Real Estate Advisor. We hope this report has given you a snapshot of market trends. As always, we would be glad to discuss them further with you. Please contact us if you plan to list your property in 2023, would like a more detailed analysis of specific areas or back issues of the Jackson Hole Report, or if you are seeking a professional Realtor to represent you in your next real estate transaction. We look forward to working with you. Sincerely,
The Engel & Völkers Team (307) 201-8800 jacksonhole.evrealestate.com
*This third-quarter report is not posted on the Jackson Hole Report website. Instead, it is provided exclusively via email, as a service to all our valued customers and clients here at Engel & Volkers Jackson Hole. The data is collected and analyzed quarterly to help you keep up with trends in our market. *While other local Real Estate Brokers attempt to report on the local real estate market, we are the only ones to track every single transaction. Therefore, if you want the most accurate information to help guide you through your next real estate transaction, please call Devon, Luke, or David today. “We are the Experts”. *All statistics are supplied by sources that have been deemed reliable but are not guaranteed. *All statistics quoted in this newsletter are based on sales in 2023 compared to sales in 2022. *Median sale price is the cost of a property that has an equal number of sales above and below it on the price scale. *Average sale price is the total combined dollar volume divided by the number of sales. *In this report, “overall” refers to all sales in Teton County combined (homes, lots, condos, commercial, ranch), not including Alta, WY. *The term “Market Value” means; the value of a property in terms of what it can be sold for on the open market; current value. © Copyright 1995 - 2023 by David Viehman and Devon Viehman, dba Engel & Volkers Jackson Hole. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without explicitly written permission from David Viehman.
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JACKSON HOLE REPORT Q3 2023