EPILOGUE JUNE 2010 ISSUE

REKHA CHOWDHARY

Identity Politics and Regional Polarisation in J&K

VIKRAM GAUR

POPULAR MOOD Options For Future (Startling results of new opinions poll in J&K)

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Waiting for the Worst J&K’s Ailing Power System P9

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Epilogue J & K ’ S M O N T H LY M A G A Z I N E

C U R R E N T

A F F A I R S ,

S O C I A L

S C I E N C E S

Jammu & Kashmir Strengths Weaknesses opprortunities threats An ANALYSIS h year of 4t

nsible jo se

m nalis ur

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42th f o issue e sens

Epilogue...talks of the state's many current issues without sounding grim SEVANTI NINAN Media Analyst & Columnist In her column Media Matters, The Hindu, May 23, 2010

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Epilogue because there is more to know

CONTENT

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Editor Zafar Iqbal Choudhary

Letters Prologue

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Publisher Yogesh Pandoh

Commentary Identity Politics and Regional Polarisation in J&K

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Rekha Chowhdary

Consulting Editor D. Suba Chandran

Policy Reforms Waiting for the Worst J&K’s Ailing Power System

Associate Editors Irm Amin Baig Tsewang Rigzin

Vikram Gaur

General Manager Kartavya Pandoh

Opinion Poll Options for Future A new Survey on Kashmir Shows Opinions More Split Than Ever

Art Editor Keshav Sharma Research Officer Raman Sharma Phones & email Office : +91 191 2493136 Editorial: +91 94191 80762 Administration: +91 94191 82518 subscriptions : +91 90188 87136 editor@epilogue.in subscription@epilogue.in Printed and Published by Yogesh Pandoh for Epilogue NewsCraft from Ibadat House, Madrasa Lane, Near Graveyard, Bathindi Top, Jammu, J&K - 180012 and Printed at : DEE DEE Reprographix, 3 Aikta Ashram, New Rehari Jammu (J&K) Disputes, if any, subject to jurisdiction of courts and competitive tribunals in Jammu only.

I N FOCUS Towards Vibrant J&K 14 15 15 16 16 17 18 19 20 20 21 22 23 25 26 27 27

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Strengths Towards Vibrant J&K Fertile Land Abundant Hydel Resources Upwards Cash Collections Growing GDP Basket Full of Fruits Impressive Forest Cover Favourite Tourist Destination Word Famous Handicrafts Populous Livestock Picking up Industrial Culture Weaknesses Insufficient Connectivity Poor Domestic Share in Revenues Faster Population Growth Unexplored Power Potential Far from Main Market Huge Supply - Demand gap in Poultry, Meat Product Opportunities Seizing the Opportunities Threats Eliminating the Threats

Column Women’s Initiatives or the Lack of them in Kashmir

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Manisha Shobarjani

Long Years of Injustice

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M Shamsur Rabb Khan

Exclusive Series Auchinleck : Af-Pak and Kashmir

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Rakesh Ankit

Features Development with a vengeance the only roadmap for Bastar

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Asha Shukla

An unlikely flood in Kashmir

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Naseer Ahmad Lone

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Epilogue, June 2010

Epilogue N E W S ,

C U R R E N T

A F FA I R S ,

S O C I A L

REGIONAL IN CONTENT NATIONAL IN PROFILE

S C I E N C E S

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Letters

Readers Write Developing Rajouri, Poonch

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he twin marginal districts of Rajouri and Poonch need an enhanced development strategy and at the same time care should be taken build bridges between castes and communities. In “Social Structure and Perceptions of Regional Disparities” by Mazammal Hussain Malik (Epilogue, May 2010), it is submitted that the enterprising author has microscopically dissected a dimension of the microcosm of Pir Panchal Range and generated sufficient light. The concept of socio-cultural and economic development has been discussed threadbare and the novel idea of an Autonomous Hill Development Council floated to infuse the element of accountability and transparency in the focused areas.

The idea of Hill Development Council is apparently appealing but in the long run it shall not broaden the outlook of already caste ridden society of Rajouri-Poonch belt. It was shocking to read that the religious communities were divided in to 54 sub castes. So far as Muslims are concerned, caste system militates against the true spirit of Islam. In Hinduism it has been a bane that did incalculable harm. A cosmopolitan and an international outlook is the hallmark of 21st century.

Our politically incorrect leaders have always played the caste card for self-aggrandizement and the pathetically innocent loved to be exploited.

Anyhow, there is no harm in giving a trial to what Mr. Malik has penned down. Only intellectuals can come forth with novel ideas. The intention of the author regarding AHDC appears to be sincere but whether our political bosses display the genuine sincerity is a billion dollar question. The rehabilitation of disgruntled youth has also to be addressed to. This is a tall order.

Epilogue’s May 2010 issue focus on Rajouri and Poonch instills sense as also promises hope at the end of a dark tunnel. Your editorial efforts deserve compliments!

A Case for Land Custom Station in Ladakh

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adakh has a long border with Western Tibet. Earlier there were many trading routes from the Karakorum Pass, Lenak La, Dambu Guru, Spanggur Tso, Dumchulle La, Demchok, Hanle, Chumar and many more. Even today some of them are being used unofficially.

However, this trade is technically illegal, and the Ladakhis who take out Indian goods and bring in Chinese ones can be and are harassed. This could be avoided if a Land Customs Station (LCS) is opened.

A Land Customs Station facilitates trade between two countries and makes it legal. It needs to be stressed that there is considerable cross border trade between Ladakh and Tibet, and yet it is all illegal. Till a Land Customs Station (LCS) is opened this illegal trade is likely to continue. Several proposals were sent to the Department of Revenue, Ministry of Finance, Government of India since 1996, but all have been either ignored or dismissed unjustly.

If Ladakhi's are not troubled by Customs Act, they are by a relatively innocuous ‘Ingress and Egress Act’ of the State of Jammu and Kashmir.

If a Land Customs Station was opened up in Ladakh, like it is on Shipki la (at 4000 meters as precisely) in Himachal Pradesh's Kinnaur district, many people would benefit. From 2002, I had been trying to get people from Ladakh involved in the move to open an LCS there, but to no avail. The commercial advantages for the people of Ladakh are undeniable and immense.

In 2003, anticipating that the opening up of an LCS is imminent, a Ladakhi lady had sat through a test and given a Clearing Agent's License. But nothing has happened.

PROF. S.K. BHALLA Principal, Government College, Mendhar Poonch

ROMESH BHATTACHARJI, New Friends Colony, New Delhi

Commitment Honoured

O

n behalf of the people of Rajouri and Poonch I wish to thank the Epilogue for covering this region in minute details (Epilogue, May 2010). This region is perhaps home to a major readership segment of many a leading newspapers and other media but no effort has ever been seen towards generating an understanding on the socio-political atmosphere of Rajouri and Poonch. I remember while responding to a letter, written about special issue on Ladakh in September 2009, Epilogue’s editor had promised exclusive issues on other marginal areas like Rajouri and Poonch. That commitment stands honoured but we would like to request that it should not end here.

SHAHZAD KHAN Rajouri

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Epilogue, June 2010

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PROLOGUE

From the Editor

Seize the Moment ZAFAR CHOUDHARY

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round ten years back when India was in the middle of a cellphone revolution people in Jammu and Kashmir would turn to newspapers and magazines to know about the mobile phones and the whole system of their working. There was a general perception that Jammu and Kashmir was unlikely to have the mobile telephony. Not only the security agencies had raised obstacles for the usual obsessive concerns, the cellphone operators were actually reluctant to operate in this remote, mountainous, sparsely populated, infrastructure deficient and conflict riddled state looming under perpetual political uncertainty. Any ugly word was no less suitable to define the situation. And in late 2003 when first cellphone company opened shop to long and desperate queues of prospective subscribers, others realized the mistake. Seven years later half the population in Jammu and Kashmir has cellphones and the demand is just growing. Some problems are more of the mindset.

Jammu and Kashmir is seen more in perspective of its politics and conflict and less in context of the opportunities this state offers. In this issue we look at the strengths and opportunities and enlist the weaknesses. Primarily based on the data compiled by the state’s Department of Economics and Statistics

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under guidance of its director GA Qureshi, the cover focus of this issue suggests that strengths and opportunities available in the state far outnumber the weaknesses and threats.

In normal discourse a thought of Jammu and Kashmir would immediately throw up the politics and conflict as its weakness and threats and therefore no strengths and opportunities to discuss but we believe that the other side of the picture, mostly ignored, is often brighter. With this view we have kept the politics out of the focus and treated economy as only term of analysis. Later in this issue, we have dealt with a recent opinion poll conducted by a British Scholar Robert Bradnock associated with the internationally renowned think-tank Chatham House, based in London. The survey conducted on both sides of the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir with funding support from Dr Saif al Islam al Gaddafi, a progressive son of the Libyan leader Muammar al Gaddafi, throws up startling results. Without going into the question what attracted the young Gaddafi to Kashmir, the results of Bradnock’s survey are something more important to ponder upon. What handful of leaders suggests as future of Jammu and Kashmir has actually not been endorsed by the public mood. It seems that peoples on both sides of the Line of Control have been traveling with

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MAY 2010 the times over past 60 years and they are not really willing to stay caged in the history. An overwhelming and almost near absolute majority of respondents to this survey have called for moving beyond the status quo. In response to another question again an overwhelming majority has favoured that for moving beyond status quo their opinion should be taken on board. If this survey is anything to go by, the general mood is for the better and its time that India, Pakistan and the leadership of Kashmir seized the moment.

Feedback : zafarchoudhary@epilogue.in

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COMMENTARY

Identity Politics

Identity Politics and Regional Polarisation in J&K REKHA CHOWDHARY

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uring the recently concluded budget session of the Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) legislature, two issue generated a lot of furore both within a well a outside the house. Of these, one issue emanated out of a private member's bill in the Legislative Council which sought to disqualify women married to people outside the state from the status of “permanent resident �

(PR). The second issue related to a demand for introducing a bill to ban inter-district recruitment in government job .What came to be focused, through both the issues, was the sharp inter-regional divide and emphasis on emotive identity politic on the one hand, and the on laught on the right of marginalised sections of society, on the other. In the first case, the discourse on the "rights of women" was subordinated to the discourse on the Kashmiri versus regional/national/Hindu identity. In the second case, the issue of the marginalisation of backward districts was articulated in a manner which placed it in contradiction to the interest of other backward sections of society, like the scheduled castes (SCS) and scheduled tribes (STS), while also reducing it to a Jammu versus Kashmir issue.

The Disqualification Bill The issue of disqualification of women from holding the PR status, if they are married outside the state, is an ongoing one since 2003, when the state

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high court gave verdict in a case - the Sushila Sawhney vs the State of J&K pending before it since 1979. This verdict corrected an administrative anomaly, which restricted the rights of women married outside the state. As per an administrative practice, which was not supported by any provision of the state constitution, PR certificates issued to women were stamped "valid till marriage".' Women married to people from outside the state could not get a fresh PR certificate and were therefore deprived of the privileges associated with this status the right to pursue employment in state services, to vote for the state legislature and to contest elections within the state. The full bench of the high court opined that the daughter of a permanent resident of the J&K will not lose her status as a permanent resident if she marries a person who is not a PR of the state. It stated that there is no provision in the existing law dealing with the status of a female PR who marries a non-permanent resident.

This decision was considered historic because it did away with a discriminatory practice and brought relief and equality to women. A sense of justice and fairness prevailed after this decision. However, the then People's Democratic Party (PDP)-led government sought to undo the high court's judgment by filing a' special leave petition in the Supreme Court. Later, it withdrew the judicial appeal but introduced a "dis-

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qualification" bill in the state legislature. This bill got the full support of the National Conference (NC) and was unanimously passed in the Legislative Assembly in 2004. However, as it created a lot of controversy, it was stalled thereafter and could not be made into law. The issue, however, remained alive with the PDP vociferously arguing that a law is required to disqualify women married outside the state. The Permanent Resident (Disqualification) Bill, 2010 introduced in the Legislative Council by Murtaza Khan of the PDP was an effort in this direction. This bill was later dropped due to a "technical" flaw since it pertained to a constitutional matter it could not be initiated in the upper house. However, the issue remains alive as the PDP is committed to bring it again in the state legislature.

The bill, as introduced in 2004 and as resurrected in 2010, has been used to generate political emotions in Kashmir.

It has been argued that restrictions on women's rights are necessitated to preserve the political identity of Kashmir.

The right of women to marry outside the state and retain their PR status is seen as contradictory to the autonomy and special status of the state. There is a campaign that such a right, given to women, would ultimately lead to demographic change in the state. The fear is expressed that the right of women to hold their PR status even when they are married outside the state would open the floodgates for the non-permanent

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COMMENTARY Identity Politics

residents to swamp the state and control the property and employment within the state.

The political class in Kashmir, across party and ideological lines, whether belonging to the separatist or the mainstream politics, supported the disqualification of women in 2004 in the interest of, what was termed the preservation of Kashmiri identity. Nothing unusual was seen in the subordination of women's rights to Kashmiri identity. This time too the general refrain has been that the bill does not concern women as much as it concerns the Kashmiri identity facing threats from external forces.

The concern for protection and preservation of Kashmiri identity therefore overrode the concerns for women's rights.

However, it was not only in Kashmir that the gender identity was subordinated to the political identity of the community. Almost in the similar vein, the discourse in Jammu was also based on the lines of regional, communal and national identity. The bill to disqualify married women from holding the PR status was opposed not as much from the perspective of women's rights as on the grounds that it was "antiJammu", "antinational" and "anti-Hindu". The campaign, both within as well as outside the legislature, against the bill was carried out mainly by the forces of the Hindu right whose major objection to the bill was its pro-Kashmir and anti-Jammu basis.

Chaman Lal Gupta, senior Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader thus described the bill: "The Bill is antiJammu and antiwomen and will deprive our girls' ancestral rights to own land, property and jobs if they marry outside the states Not only the BJP but many other organisations found in this bill another instance of discrimination against Jammu. The bar association of

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Jammu (BAJ) actually called for a Jammu bandh to agitate against the "anti-Jammu" and "anti-Hindu" nature of the bill. According to Sunil Sethi, the president of the BAJ, the bill is a conspiracy against the people of Jammu. To quote him: "This bill is discriminatory to women of the state, particularly of Jammu region. It is anti-Jammu as most of the girls here marry outside the state with persons who are non-state subjects (non-permanent residents of J-K)."

In this whole context of competitive identity politics, not only was the central issue of women's rights totally

Politics in J&K has become very precarious with identity-related issues assuming importance and sensitivities increasing on Kashmir versus Jammu issues. Almost on every issue, one can witness a regionally polarised response.

sidelined, but the politics of the state was also polarised on dangerous regional and communal lines.

The Inter-District Recruitment Bill The other issue which generated a lot of heat during the budget session was related to a demand that interdistrict recruitment within the state be banned. The demand was first articulated by the Jammu-based Jammu and Kashmir National Panthers Party (JKNPP) after a few people from Kashmir, selected for the subordinate services, were posted in the Udhampur district of Jammu. Later, it was in the Kupwara district in north Kashmir that

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the demand became intense, following the appointment of a few Jammu-based persons in that district. One of the most backward border districts of the state, Kupwara has suffered the maximum brunt of militancy and with the emerging scenario of relative peace, development and employment have become emotive. issues here. The general argument, in terms of employment, is that the district is too backward to compete with other better developed districts, and therefore, the appointment of "outsiders" will cut into the share of local youth, who themselves cannot compete for jobs in other districts. Hence, the demand for banning inter-district recruitment was forcefully made by the Kupwara Bachao Committee led by Engineer Rashid, an independent MLA from Langate, one of the five assembly constituencies of the Kupwara district.

It is important to note these the issue, as it was raised in Kupwara, was located in the context of the marginalisation and underdevelopment of the district. Hence, resentment was expressed not only against the SCs seen as outsiders, but also against the more developed districts of Kashmir. While making the demand that recruitments be made only from within the district, Kupwara's leaders talked about the marginalisation of the district within the state in general and Kashmir division in particular and referred to the low standards of education and understaffing of schools and colleges which directly affect the employment and economic prospects of the local youth.

They argued that north Kashmir has been deprived of major opportunities provided to other parts of Kashmir. To quote the representative of the Kupwara bar association and district president of the People's Conference: There is a university in central

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COMMENTARY Identity Politics

Kashmir, a university in south Kashmir.

Yet the authorities chose to locate the central university just 15 kilometres from the existing University of Kashmir.

Train service was truncated at Varmul and all the administrative relief systems seem to be scarce in this impoverished district.6 However, the Kashmir-based parties appropriated the demand by taking a position that the inter-district recruitment hurts the interests of Kashmiris since it allows the "outsiders" (meaning thereby the people from Jammu) to be appointed in Kashmir. More specifically, opinion was built up against the policy of reservations for the SCs and the STS. Though the major beneficiaries of reservation include the STS (located in the whole state including Kashmir) along with the SCs, reservations were portrayed as benefiting only the Jammu region, as Kashmir does not have any Hindu or dalit population.

The Jammu-based political parties complimented this discourse by portraying the demand as anti-Jammu completely underplaying the fact that the demand for such a ban on inter-district recruitment had come, in the first instance, from Jammu itself. Using the issue of reservations for SCs, parties like the BJP portrayed it as opposed to the interests of Hindus of the Jammu region. Like the women's disqualification bill, the discourse on this matter was also articulated around the Kashmir versus Jammu identity, although it entailed complex issues of the rights of socially and economically backward sections entitled to reservation on the one hand and the dilemmas of people living in underdeveloped districts on the other. The backward districts of Jammu including Rajouri, poonch, Doda, Kishtwar and Ramban are similarly placed as Kupwara and suffer from vari-

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ous disadvantages vis-a-vis the more developed districts of the state.

The regional connotations that the demand for banning inter-district recruitment acquired, however, had very critical implications. The demand directly hit the interest of those sections of society which had been availing the advantage of reservation, especially those belonging to the SC and ST categories? The leadership of this section responded by opposing the demand. On the lines of the Kupwara Bachao Committee, the Anusuchit Jati Arakshan Bachavo Manch [Scheduled Caste Save Reservations Front] (AJABM) was formed which demanded that the interest of the marginalised communities within the state be protected.

These organisations were supported by the All India Con federation of SC/ST/OBC Organisations and the All India Gujjar Mahasabha.

With one section of the marginalised confronting another, and issues gettting articulated in a regionally polarised manner, the NC-Congress coalition came under extreme pressure.

The PDP and other Kashmir-based parties demanded the introduction of a bill to ban inter-district recruitment in the current session and the Jammu-based opposition, including the BJP, opposed it. Finally; a consensus was brokered where the bill to ban inter-district recruitment was passed, but with an amendment which stated, "Candidates applying under sc category for any post in the divisional or district cadre shall, irrespective of their place of residence in the state, be eligible for selection against the posts reserved for the said category at such selection".

This "consensus formula", however, generated more resentment as the STS, especially the Gujjars, were not extended the advantage that the SCs

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had been able to negotiate for themselves. Since 2004, when the state government had allowed inter-district recruitment, a number of Gujjars from Jammu division were able to get jobs in the Kashmir division through reservations.9 However, the Gujjar response has been "politically managed" with the help of two ministers belonging to this community, who have assured "full support" to the government from members of their community.

On the contrary, it is the response from Kashmir that has acquired emotive overtones. Here a feeling has been generated that, by allowing reservations for SCs in all the districts of the state, the government has adopted an antiKashmir stance. PDP President Mehbooba Mufti has come out openly against the reservation for SCs citing the "peculiarity" of the state. A PDP leader from Kupwara reflected the opinion of the party when he said, "the bill is akin to stabbing the people of Kashmir in their back. It is injustice with the people of Kashmir and we will continue to fight against it". The debate has been joined by the separatists with Syed Ali Shah Geelani stating that the 8% reservation for SCs in Kashmir is "unjustified, illogical and wrong". Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, meanwhile, assailing the state government for passing the bill in its amended form has stated that it harms the "interests of Muslims and especially Kashmiris..." He warned that "J&K is a Muslim majority state. If interests of Muslims are harmed we won't remain silent."

Precarious Politics Politics in J&K has become very precarious with identity-related issues assuming importance and sensitivities increasing on Kashmir versus Jammu issues. Almost on every issue, one can witness a regionally polarised response.

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COMMENTARY Identity Politics

Earlier, such a response could be seen only in Jammu, where political mobilisation was often based on regionally sensitive issues. "Kashmir-centric" power politics, "regional imbalances", "regional discrimination" were the major idioms used by Jammubased parties and organisations to mobilise local political support. Regional sensitivities, though important earlier, did not characterise the identity politics of Kashmir, which was mainly defined with reference to its relationship with India - whether through the politics of autonomy, demand for plebiscite or azadi (independence) politics. However, while this contestation remains, the regional dimension has also been added to the identity politics of Kashmir. One can often pick up voices raised against the "discrimination" of Kashmir vis-a-vis Jammu region. (Often on such petty issues as a comparison of the size of flyovers in Jammu and those in Kashmir or to more important issues of employment and the share of "Kashmiri Muslims" vis-a-vis that of "Jammu Muslims" in state services.)

Much of this is the fallout of the increasing relevance of the politics of governance and the intensity of competition between PDP and NC, the two Kashmir-centric parties. With both of them competing for the same political space, they tend to radicalise the politics of Kashmir and in the process increase sensitivities about "KilShmiri identity". Since 2002, when the electoral space came to be fragmented in Kashmir between these two parties, the politics around "crisis of Kashmiri identity" has been perpetuated - either through the issue of "regional discrimination" or that of "demographic change". (The issue of women's disqualification bill is not of singular nature in evoking the fear of demographic

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change. It was the same fear that led to mass mobilisation in 2008 against the government order transferring forest land to Shri Amarnath Shrine Board (SASB). The issue of demography has been raised by the PDP and by Syed Ali Shah Geelani even in the context of the presence of Bihari labour in Kashmir.)

Regionally polarised politics tends to divert all political energies to divisive positions and reduces substantial issues to simplistic notions of regional discrimination. The important issues of "discrimination" and "backwardness",

For a socially and culturally diverse state like J&K, there is a fundamental danger in the deepening of identity politics polarised along regional and communal lines. It will not merely weaken the secular basis and plural ethos of the state, but also endanger the very integrity of the state by fracturing the relations between its constitutive regions and communities.

which often transcend these regional boundaries, are pushed back from the public eye. This politics of region mainly emanates from the two largest urban areas of Jammu and Srinagar and, at best, represent the interest of the urban middle class. They, thus, do not leave much space for representing the interest of socially and economically backward sections of society. For example, for a state which recorded one of the lowest literacy rates in 2001, there is a competition for establishing colleges and universities in two regions, rather than focusing on social schools. This regionally

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polarised politics has compelled the centre to provide two central universities to this state - one each for Jammu and for Kashmir.

Regional polarisation does not remain limited to this form of divisiveness, but often spills over and becomes communalised in many ways. This has been happening in both Kashmir as well as Jammu. Jammu's regional politics has been, in any case, appropriated by the Hindu right for fairly long and, therefore, in the regional discourse here Jammu get equated with Hindu and the two terms are often used interchangeably. Often regional politics is used to stoke barely camouflaged communal sentiments.

In Kashmir too, there is a growing trend to conflate the regional identity with the religious. In general discussions, the Muslim context of the Kashmiri identity is a given fact - that is the reason that arguments about the regional discrimination of Kashmir often tend to be extended to the discrimination of the Muslims. The idea which has come to define the identity politics of Kashmir is the "Muslimmajority" character of the state and the need to preserve it.

For a socially and culturally diverse state like J&K, there is a fundamental danger in the deepening of identity politics polarised along regional and communal lines. It will not merely weaken the secular basis and plural ethos of the state, but also endanger the very integrity of the state by fracturing the relations between its constitutive regions and communities. This danger was clearly visible during the Amamath agitation of 2008 when extremely acrimonious relations emerged between the publics of the two major regions of the state and communal tensions surfaced in many parts.

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POLICY REFORMS

Power Sector WAITING FOR THE WORST

J&K's Ailing Power System VIKRAM GAUR

Now when Jammu and Kashmir has been confirmed as second topper in the country in the notorious list of power thefts and the state's Power Development Department is ranked 26th in inefficiency, there is hardly anything worst to come. Isn't there a need for the helmsmen to do and introspection?

G

iving the prevailing state of affairs, it may be embarrassing for us, the citizens, but not really shocking that private organization called Credit Rating Information Services of India Ltd (CRISIL) engaged in carrying out survey in all the states of the country in respect of the working of government/semi-government agencies, has placed Power Development Dept (PDD) of the J&K state at second position as for as theft of power is concerned and PDD holds 26th position in respect of Working Efficiency in the country. Its poor rating may not worry the PDD since it is used to working the way it has been working for decades now but the public is certainly worried about the dark future that PDD faces in the years to come. Although, this rating gives us the reason about the ever worsening power position in the state yet it does not indicate why PDD has been placed in such a pathetic position in the country.

Well the reasons could be political, administrative, managerial, and professional or all these combined together and above all lack of genuine interest at all levels including the 'political will' in improving the system. It certainly needs to be investigated and rectified without any waste of time if the state is to be

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Epilogue, June 2010

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POLICY REFORMS Power Sector

saved from future catastrophe that may fall if the conditions continue to be the same in the power sector especially because Electric Power is the key to development of the state in all other sectors.

Some of the important factors which are affecting the power system adversely, at least in Jammu region are:« Non working of the power system on professional and scientific lines and non-implementation of power reforms as required under international/ national norms. « Lop sided and unplanned development of power system. « Existing power system from receiving end to the consumer end is in shambles and does not conform even to the elementary Electricity Rules/ standards. « Although the PDD has 6-7 distinct separate departments under as many numbers of Chief Engineers yet there are no specialised cadre based service conditions for the engineers in this modern age of specialization. « In spite of repeated directions from the CEA Energy Auditing has not been taken seriously. « On the revenue realisation side the work of revenue collection has been entrusted to the maintenance engineers and not to an independent commercial wing resulting in loss of revenue of several hundred crores. « The age old practice of carrying out almost all works departmentally is still being followed. The PDD despises out sourcing the construction works to the specialised private agencies that would tremendously improve the quality of work and save time involved in procurement of material etc. « Utilisation of Human Resource at all levels is not as per the present established standards of suitability but is as

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per the political exigency without any accountability.

SOME RECOMMENDATIONS The department as huge as PDD that is directly connected with common man and his welfare, there is no independent Public Relation office (PR) to sort out the public problems.

Consequently, the engineering cadre wastes most of its time in dealing with public complaints and their professional work of maintaining the power system suffers.

The Power Development wing of the government is being run on ad-hoc basis without any planning for the needs of the people and the state, present or t h e f u t u r e . E v e n i f t h e p r ojects/proposals/ plans are framed and submitted, they gather dust in the secretariat and no action is taken to meet the existing need on emergent basis.

The result is that the development suffers and the state remains short of supply against the ever increasing demand.

And consequently, the power cuts and shut downs to manage the available power are resorted to. This affects allround development of the state including industry, agriculture, business, commercial and domestic consumer etc.

The working of the PDD and entire Energy Management itself is extremely unprofessional.

The solution is to engage national level consultants in the field to advise the government as how to effectively and efficiently run the PDD and its allied services to exploit the available power resources in the best possible manner.

Engage services of an extremely competent professional may be from outside the state for a fixed tenure of at least for 5-years to make him accountable for what he does.

Our power generation, transmission and distribution system is not being

Vol. 4, Issue 6

properly supplemented keeping in view the state's future requirements resulting in lop-sided expansion of the system. At least in Jammu region the increase in 220/132 KV grid stations capacities that has been carried out after a long time under forced conditions have completely been nullified by not matching the evacuation of power at 33-KV level to distribution stations with the result that the 33kv lines are getting over-loaded calling for forced shut downs of power supply in spit of the sufficient availability of power. Some of the 33/11 KV stations in the urban areas are over loaded and at times even when the power is available the stations have to be shut down because of overloading of the individual transformer.

About the existing power transmission and distribution system, less said the better. Starting from Major 220/132 KV Grid Stations down to 33/11-kv and 11000/400 volts distribution stations and distribution network up to the consumer end everything is in precarious condition. Although, some 220/132-kv Grid Stations have been improved, the existing condition of almost all other stations does not conform to any standard, not even to the basic laid down Electricity Rules under the Act for safety and security of workers of the PDD not to talk of the public. The result is tremendous increase in T&D losses and poor quality of supply to the users including unwanted interruptions due to the failures of the system. Loose hanging wires in the busiest of the streets, bent poles, no guard net under the high voltage transmission lines, over loaded pole supports carrying even the TV cables and boosters, unauthorised advertisement boards, no LT switches at the distribution transformer stations, no cables, no fencing around the stations, improper earthing of the transformer stations and a lot more. There is

Epilogue, June 2010

11

POLICY REFORMS Power Sector

UNBUNDLE TO SURVIVE

Learn lessons from J&K Bank

R

ecently a leading English daily of the state carried two interesting news items that directly concern the general public.

One saying 'T&D Losses in J&K highest in the country' and the other 'J&K Bank posts record Rs 512-cr net profit'. Both the organizations Power Development Department/Power Development Corporation and J&K Bank are professional, commercial and government controlled organizations. But while PDD/PDC is Government run, the J&K Bank is autonomous and run professionally, guided by a Board of Directors, 13 in number. The Board headed by expert professional like Dr. Haseeb Drabu is a mix of top professionals, men of experience in banking, known businessmen of repute and men from the public life. But PDD/PDC supposed to be autonomous is totally statecontrolled through its bureaucratic setup. The Board of Directors of PDC, 10 in number, is headed by CM and includes 8-IAS officers and only one 'absentee Professional member' from CEA and the PDD is all a totally government affair.

Working under the guidance of such formation of Board of directors who may be expert administrators but lack professional or commercial back ground; they neither have professional foresight and vision of the future required growth of the power infrastructure nor any idea about the power-needs of the common man (as also over all idea of the importance

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of the power sector in the futuristic development of the state). They are certainly not acquainted with the technicalities of Power Production and the Energy Management which is a specialized subject of study for

The J&K Bank is autonomous and run professionally, guided by a Board of Directors, 13 in number. The Board headed by expert professional like Dr. Haseeb Drabu is a mix of top professionals, men of experience in banking, known businessmen of repute and men from the public life. But PDD/PDC supposed to be autonomous is totally statecontrolled through its bureaucratic setup. The Board of Directors of PDC, 10 in number, is headed by CM and includes 8-IAS officers and only one 'absentee Professional member' from CEA and the PDD is all a totally government affair.

Power Engineers. What heights can the PDD/PDC achieve under the guidance of such a Board of Directors is

Vol. 4, Issue 6

obvious from the results. And the results are not very heartening with an official T&D loss figure of 66.70% (although the T&D losses are more than 72%) and the net consequential financial loss is much more than projected loss of Rs 2064-crores for the year 2010-11.

The PDC which is supposed to handle, manage and exploit power potential (highest in the country) of the state and is in existence for the last over 20-years, has till date, not been able to create its own cadre of working experts and professionals.

The entire work force from MD downwards is on deputation to the PDC which goes back to their parent departments after completion of their tenure posting. So much so that when the state took over Baghliar Hydro Power Project after completion of its first phase the PDC did not have its own work-force to run the Power House and they had to borrow services of the NHPC. Such conditions have prevailed in the PDC/PDD since their inception.

To make these organizations run effectively and efficiently and to achieve optimum benefit for the people of the state the government must immediately go in for unbundling of the entire Power Sector into three independent and autonomous corporations e.g. Power Development Corporation (PDC), Power Transmission Corporation and Power Supply Corporation and free the Power Sector from political and

Epilogue, June 2010

12

POLICY REFORMS Power Sector

beaurocratic hold. The state already has PDC; we need to create another two corporations. All these Autonomous Corporations should have separate Boards of Directors who are experts/professionals and men of experience who have sufficient experience in the field of handling power sector. Such committed team of professionals can be picked up from with-in or out-side the state. And these professionals should have a fixed tenure to show results so that they can be made accountable for their success or failure.

People in the PDD have not still forgotten Er. R.S.Gill (father of KPS Gill) an eminent and well known hydro-electricalengineer of great repute. It was for him that the state government created the post of Commissioner-Secretary to the Government for the first time as he wanted direct access to the Minister in-charge to personally explain to the minister his proposals for need to expand the Electricity Department into Power Development Department with more than six Chief Engineers. It was his vision and foresight that gave the PDD its present shape although a number of wings were eliminated after he left the state under the ill advice of the then top engineers in 1975. Er. Gill was invited from outside the state in 1972-73 to head the then Electricity Department with one Chief Electrical Engineer for J&K. Presently, all top brass in the PDD/PDC including the Board of Directors and Administrative Head of PDD keep changing seats and no one is held or can be held accountable for any lapses or failures.

Such vitally important decisions can only be taken by an imaginative and dynamic political head who could understand the urgency and importance of running a completely professional and commercial organization on modern and commercially acceptable lines. We were hoping that with the change of Chief Minister such a change would possible but‌..

-Vikram Guar

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no continuous running earth wire along the LT distribution network which is mandatory under the Electricity Rules.

In spite of repeated CEA directions since 1993 the PDD has not been able to introduce Energy Auditing. Metering of electric energy received from various sources by the PDD is not complete. Similarly PDD have not been able to completely meter the energy supplied to the consumers.

DURING THE LAST MORE THAN 5YEARS PDD has only been able to meter about 52% of its consumers.

Meters worth crores of rupees are lying in stores and not installed for reasons best known to the political bosses. The suburban and the rural areas where theft is almost unchecked have been completely ignored as for as the E-metering is concerned.

On the revenue realisation side still the age old practice of depending on line staff e.g. linemen, meter-readers, revenueclerks, inspectors, etc under the Maintenance Divisions, for recovery of hundreds of crores of rupees from the sale of electric energy, is being followed in spite of creation of an Independent Commercial Wing under a separate Chief Engineer. In fact the effort of the PDD to separate the revenue realisation from the maintenance wings was sabotaged by the vested interests. And the government was a party to it. It must be understood that unless the revenue collection is completely brought under independent specialised wing or handed over to some private agency, the pilferage, bungling and theft in revenue realisation cannot be checked. And sooner it is done

Vol. 4, Issue 6

the better as it involves hundreds of crores of rupees of the state revenue. This wing can also look for other potential resources of revenue generation like commercial advertisement on electric poles and buildings, rental charges from cable operators for carrying their cables on the electric supports, advertisements on the electric bills etc which has been completely ignored till now.

More than thirty five years back in early seventies when Er. R.S. Gill, an eminent engineer was invited to head the then Electricity Department with only one Chief Engineer and requested to reorganise it he renamed the department as Power Development Department and created 6-7 independent wings under separate Chief Engineers. The wings included Generation, Planning, Purchase and stores, Construction, Maintenance & rural Electrification, etc with an idea to build separate independent cadres of engineers in each wing who would get specialised in their respective cadres with time. After the departure of Er. Gill in 1976, the state engineers, for their vested interest, influenced the political set up to dispense with the caderisation plan. And till today, after 35-years we find our engineers are 'jacks of all trades but masters of none'. This twentyfirst century is age of specialisation and to keep up with pace of development in the modern world we should immediately go in for complete caderisation by unbundling the entire set up under PDD and ban inter-wing transfers of engineers. This besides improving the

Epilogue, June 2010

13

POLICY REFORMS Power Sector

work quality would also make every one accountable for what ever he does during his service carrier.

The age old practice of carrying out all works departmentally is still being followed by the PDD. This has greatly affected the quality of works b e s i d e s d e l a y i n g t h e e x e c ution/completion of works because of non-procurement of required material in time coupled with other departmental constraints. Present practice all over the country is to out-source the works to private agencies and maintain strict quality control over works by the board engineers. But for reasons best known to the PDD they have not found favour with out-sourcing of the works. In fact the PDD should think of immediately privatising some of the maintenance works as also the revenue collection works.

This will greatly improve the performance of the PDD in these sectors.

Recruitment and Utilisation of available Human Resource is not as per any of the standard norms or practices followed at national/international level for such huge commercial organisations. PDD with a work-force of about 25,000 has no department of Human Resource to canalize the huge workforce. The recruitment and or placement are done not as per requirement or suitability but more as per political exigency. There is absolutely no practice of training technicians or line staff.

Absolutely raw hands are recruited for 'system maintenance'. Hardly any engineer is sent for any refresher course/short training anywhere to equip him with the latest development in the field in spite of the fact that there are several opportunities available at the national/international level.

Although, large scale expansion has taken place during the last three decades yet no fresh recruitment has

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either been made or placement effected where it is needed most for running/maintaining the system. Whatever changes have been made these were under pressure either from unions or politicians. The result is steady deterioration of the infrastructure which has further resulted in increase in the losses suffered by the system. The immediate need is creation of an independent Human Resource Wing for the PDD under qualified professionals.

The department as huge as PDD which is directly concerned with public for their day to day living, their comfort, their development in all spheres of life including industry, agriculture, commerce, health, etc and has hundreds of complaints every day, has no Public Relation wing to deal with the day to day problems of the public. For educating them and creating awareness among them about proper and economic usage of the scarcely available electric energy, its use and how best to conserve it, avoid wastage etc it is imperative that a full fledged Public Relation wing be created under an independent head who takes care of the public problems.

This will allow the technical/ engineering wing to look after the power distribution system exclusively to carry out the necessary improvement in the power distribution system to run it efficiently.

From all that has been said above it will be seen that the government has to very seriously tackle the problem of power generation and its effective utilisation strictly as per the established principles and treat the PDD strictly as a professional/commercial wing which should under no circumstances be allowed to work under any extraneous considerations. If the government is serious about taking the PDD out of the present precarious situation where under it

Vol. 4, Issue 6

is suffering a loss of over 70% and its system is crumbling under its own weight, it must first set its own house in order.

To begin with, the Chief Minister should have a full time Power Minister who committed to his work and he seriously think start thinking about taking PDD out of government control and make it as autonomous as possible even to the extent of privatising some of its wings immediately. Any half hearted steps to affect a change will not suffice. It also needs to be kept in mind that more and more generation or power alone shall not be able to solve the problem. 'Any storage tank with holes in the bottom will never get filled-up, how so ever, large quantity of water you pour into it.

The holes have got to be plugged before filling the tank'.

Epilogue Available at Jawahar Book Center Jawahar Lal Nehru University NEW DELHI

--India Book Center THIRUVANTHAPURAM

--CNA Enterprises DN Road, MUMBAR --KC Enterprises Himayat Nagar, HYDERBAD --EBS News Agency Sector 22-B, CHANDIGARH --Bhargave Book Center University Center, ALLAHABAD

Epilogue, June 2010

14

tOWARDS vIBRANT j&k

Strengths

Towards Vibrant of J&K AN ANALYSIS OF STRENGTHS, WEAKNESS, OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS

F

or success of a project, a fair understanding of its strengths, weakness, opportunities and threats is must. The project here, for purpose of the subject, is the Jammu and Kashmir State and the objective is peace and prosperity through developments. Points highlighted here are not the only aspects connected to the objective of a prosperous Jammu and Kashmir but outside the realm of politics they make key ingredients of the strategic understanding for achieving the target - an economically vibrant Jammu and Kashmir

Strengths

SUGGESTED READINGS

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J

ammu and Kashmir's strategic location towards top of South Asian region and geographical proximity with Central Asian region is perhaps its biggest strength. The State occupies a strategic place on the country's map with its borders touching Pakistan, Tibet and China. Geographically and climatically three distinct and different regions of the state –Jammu, Kashmir Valley and Ladakh –have their own specific resource basis and are best known for the richness of their resources. Barring some parts of Jammu region and Kashmir Valley, almost entire state is mountainous. Density of population in the state is 100 persons per sq. km against the corresponding figure of 325 persons at national level. As per density (persons per sq.km) the state is the 31st populous state among the states/UTs of India. The main working force in J&K constitutes 37.01 % of total population against the corresponding rate of 39.10% in the country. The state is neck and neck in respect of work force with national rate.

Vol. 4, Issue 6

VOL. 1, ISSUE 3, MARCH 2007

BAGLIHAR SHOWS THE WAY A World Bank appointed arbiter gave a verdict on the India-Pakistan dispute on Baglihar hydro-electric power project which was accepted by both countries amicably. In that backdrop, Epilogue's March 2007 issue talked about other disputes between both countries effecting progress of Jammu and Kashmir and discussed how each one of them can be resolved amicably

Epilogue, June 2010

15

tOWARDS vIBRANT j&k Strengths

Fertile Land

T

he land of the State is highly fertile and water resources are also abundant. Rice, maize and wheat are the major farm produce.

Agriculture constitutes an important sector of the state economy as around 70% of the population of J&K derives its income directly or indirectly from this sector. Agriculture absorbs 49% of the total working force of the state with 42% as cultivators and 7% as agriculture labourers depending directly on agriculture for their livelihood. Apart from direct impact of agriculture growth on generation of rural employment and incomes, its significant secondary linkages with development of rural non-farm sectors are more crucial. Trade in agricultural outputs and inputs and services required by it and processing of its products open up additional and more significant avenues for labour absorption. Agriculture, besides, has a significant contribution in the export of rare agriculture produce like saffron, honey and basmati from state and remains an important source of raw material demanded by many industries. Vegetables are grown all over the state and an area of 51 thousand hectares has been reported under vegetables during 2008-09. Production of vegetables during 2008-09 has been of the order of 13.92 lakh tonnes. Surplus vegetables are exported outside state every year. During 2008-09, 220 thousand tonnes of off-season vegetables have been exported outside the state generating an amount of Rs. 133.00 crore. Kashmir's agriculture has an international identity. The world's best saffron is grown in the valley and its major intensity is in district Pulwama and Budgam. Nearly 98% of total area in the state under the crop is cultivated in Kashmir Province only. Its cultivation in Jammu division is limited to district Kishtwar only.

Strengths

SUGGESTED READINGS

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ABUNDANT Hydel Resources

T

he estimated hydropower potential of the State is 20,000 Megawatts (MWs), of which 16480 MWs have been identified.

During the year 2008-09 an amount of Rs. 628.00 crore was realized against the total target of Rs. 1105.00 crore, constituting 56.83 percent of the targeted revenue realization in the power sector. The revenue realization during 2008-09 has registered an increase of RS.36.03 crore Ravi, 500 thereby registering a growth of 6.09 percent over the previous Indus, 2060 year (2007-08). During 2007-08, 879.35 MWs energy was generJehlum, 3560 ated of the value of Rs. 81.42 Chenab, 10360 crore and 1658.59 MUs power was generated, valued at Rs. Basin-Wise Potential Identified (MWs) Total 16480 MWs) 295.47 crore during 2008-09.

Vol. 4, Issue 6

VOL.

1,

ISSUE

7,

J U LY

2007

POLICY FAILURES RESOURCE CONSTRAINTS Jammu and Kashmir is one of the states richest in water resources but awfully deficient in availability of electricity. July 2007 issue of Epilogue went down the history to trace what went wrong over past 60 years in harnessing the resources. This issue became a referencer on the issue of power and politics behind it. An interview with Wajahat Habibullah brought in fresh suggestions on what Delhi needed to do on Kashmir Epilogue, June 2010

16

tOWARDS vIBRANT j&k Strengths

UPWARDS Cash Collections

T

he overall revenue receipts of the state have gone up from Rs.8866.00 crore in 2004-05 to RS.19077.00 crore in 2008-09 registering a 115% increase. The current year's total receipts have been estimated at Rs 22739.00 crore. The revenue receipts of the Government from all sources over the years from 200405 to 2008-09 have registered a progressive growth. From growth percentage of 9.33% in 2004-05 over the previous year, the revenue receipts in 2008-9 have increased by 19.08% over the previous year. In the current fiscal Rs 19462.00 crore are expected as Revenue Receipts and Rs 3277.00 crore as Capital Receipts. States own Revenue Receipts (taxes as well as Non-taxes) have increased from 22.47% to 24.33% of total revenue receipts from 2004-05 to 2008-09. The total tax revenue of the state is estimated at Rs 3111.00 crore for the financial year 2009-10 as against Rs 2693.00 crore of the previous year. The non-tax revenue has been estimated at Rs 1219.00 crore as against the budgeted figure of Rs 1127.00 crore of last year. Revenue on account of Central tax transfers has also increased from 10.53% to 12.98% of total revenue receipts from 2004-05 to 2008-09. Jammu and Kashmir is receiving plan assistance from the central Government on 90% grant:10% loan basis as a special category state. The grants received are the major source of revenue to the state. Almost 60-65% of the revenue of the state is coming from this Source.

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GROWING GDP

Strengths

T

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he Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) of the J&K state is continuously growing. It has grown from Rs. 15659.81 crore to Rs 34805.18 crore during the period from 199900 to 2008-09 at current prices, registering an increase of 122.26%.

At constant prices, the GDP has risen from RS.15659.81crore to Rs 24471.31 crore during the same period registering an increase of 56.27%. The growth rate of state GDP is also showing an upward trend. Annual growth rate of state GDP which was 3.53% in 199900 has risen to 6.12% in 2008-09. Annual growth rate of GDP at national level was 6.7% during 2008-09.

Contribution of Primary sector to State GDP in 2008-09 was 25.82% (Agriculture & Allied Sectors) against 19.78% during 2007-08 at the national level. The individual share of agriculture has been estimated in the range of 8-9% for 2007-08 (advance estimates). Contribution of Secondary sector to State GDP in 2008-09 was 28.92% against 24.71 % at the national level. Contribution of Tertiary Sector to State GDP in 2008-09 was 45.89% against 54.74% in 2006-07 at national level.

Per capita annual income of Per capita annual J&K State in 2008-09 was income of J&K State in 2008Rs.21561 at constant prices. The 09 was Rs.21561 at constant per capita income of the state prices. The per capita income of the state has has grown from Rs. 15988 in grown from Rs. 15988 in 1999-00 to Rs. 21561 in 20081999-00 to Rs. 21561 in 09 registering a percentage 2008-09 registering a pergrowth of 34.85%. centage growth of 34.85%.

Vol. 4, Issue 6

VOL. 1, ISSUE 11, NOVEMBER 2007

LADAKH THE LAND OF MOON Locked in the Himalayan enclave, Ladakh region has often stayed away from the media reach and public debates. Epilogue's November 2007 issues reached out to the land and peoples of Ladakh to understand where the region stood on socioeconomic landscape of Jammu and Kashmir and listed measures on what could be done for the better.

Subsequently, there was another issue –August 2009 –exclusively devoted to Ladakh Epilogue, June 2010

17

tOWARDS vIBRANT j&k Strengths

Basket Full of Fruits

H

orticulture makes one of the biggest economic strengths of Jammu and Kashmir. The State is largest producer of Apple, Walnut, Almond and many other temperate dry and fresh fruits. J&K holds top position in saffron production in India. J&K is a major exporter of superior quality carpets, wooden art, embroiderical clothes and many other valuable crafts. Horticulture is emerging as a fast growing sector in the state. Its importance can be visualized by its contribution to the state's economy, which is estimated to be 7-8%. Almost 45% economic returns in agriculture sector is accounted for by horticulture produce. 5 lakh families comprising of 30 lakh people are involved in horticulture trade. An area of 3.06 lakh hectares was under horticulture during the year 2008-09 showing an increase of 3.73% over the previous year's area figures. In the area figures highest share of 43.30% is claimed by apple followed by 27.80% walnut. The production of fruit for the year 2008-09 was reported to be 16.91 lakh tonnes registering an increase of 3.36% over the fruit production figures for 2007-08. Out of total fruit production for 2008-09, 15.26 lakh tonnes constituting 90.24% were fresh fruit and the remaining 9.76% dry fruit. In the fruit production figures share of apple accounts for 81.18% and walnut with 8.97% share is the next major fruit. During 200809, 11.17 lakh tonnes of fruit were exported outside the state.

Foreign exchange earnings on export of dry fruit for 2007-08 were Rs. 161.44 crore.

Strengths

SUGGESTED READINGS

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F

A

C

T

O

I

D

S

« Average population per Doctor during the period from 1950-2009 has

decreased from 17683 to 2266.

VOL. 1, ISSUE 12, DECEMBER 2007

« Population covered per school in the state is 469 in 2008-09 against 967

persons in (2001-02) at the national level. « Pupil teacher ratio at upper primary level in the state in 2007-08 was 31 against 46 in 2004-05 at the national level. « Pupil teacher ratio upper primary level in the state in 2007-08 was 20 against 35 in 200405 at the national level. « The number of house less persons in India has come down from 2342354 in 1981 to 1943766 in 2001. Houseless population constitutes 0.19 percent of total Indian population. Similarly houseless population recorded by 2001 in J&K was 12751. « The house less population in the state has come down from 0.18% in 1981 to 0.13% in 2001.

Vol. 4, Issue 6

FORESTS FORESTERS In the laps of Himalayas, a state like Jammu and Kashmir is expected to be greener than any other state in the country. However, things are not quite encouraging. December 2007 issue of Epilogue took the readers deep into forests to understand how rich our state is in the green wealth and what are the threats and challenges. This issue also dealt with the organizational structure of the Forest Department and suggested some policy measures for overhaul.

Epilogue, June 2010

18

tOWARDS vIBRANT j&k Strengths

IMPRESSIVE Forest cover

F

orests play an important role in maintaining the ecological balance by moderating the climate, maintaining the soil mantle, improving soil fertility, minimizing soil erosion, purifying the air, preservation of wild life and in regulating the flow of water in rivers and streams. Forests are also main source of timber, fuel, fodder, medicines and other non timber minor products. Forests ensure good agriculture produce and offer considerable potential for industrial development of the State. The Sector provides grazing facilities for our livestock too. Per capita forest area accounts for 0.17 hectares as compared to 0.07 hectares in the country.

Outturn of forest for the year 2007-08 was 101.16 thousand cubic metres with 68.27 thousand cubic metre timber and 32.89 thousand cubic metre firewood. Export of timber during the year 2007-08 was 30.70 thousand cubic metres, the highest level achieved during the period 2000-01 to 2007-08. The state has 4 national parks, 16 sanctuaries and 35 conservation reserves covering an area of 15912 sq kms. During the year 2007-08, an income of Rs. 22.65 crore accrued from forestry to the state exchequer against the corresponding figure of Rs. 16.92 crore for 2006-07 indiPer capita forest area accounts cating an increase of 33.87%. for 0.17 hectares as compared Jammu and Kashmir state has a sizeable irrigato 0.07 hectares in the country. tion potential available which requires to be harnessed. The net area sown in the state during 200708 was 734 thousand hectares whereas the gross area sown (total area sown under different crops) was 1134 thousand hectares.

Strengths

SUGGESTED READINGS

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F

A

C

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O

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S

« Crude Birth Rate of 18.9 of J&K State is lower than the national level

birth rate of 23.8. « Crude Death Rate of 5.5 of J&K State is also lower than the national

death rate of 7.6. « Infant Mortality Rate of 50 of J&K state is lower than the national infant mortality rate of 58. « Institutional births rate of J&K State of 54.3% is higher than the national rate of 40.7%. « Average Population covered per Health Institution during the period from

1950-2009 has decreased from 26240 to 3121.

Vol. 4, Issue 6

VOL. 2, ISSUE 1, JANUARY 2008

ECONOMY & OTHER IDEAS In a politically sensitive state like Jammu and Kashmir, economy is the least talked about subject. In January 2008 issue, just ahead of the presentation of state's annual budget, Epilogue met the incumbent and the former Finance Minister as also leading economists to list suggestions for turning around the economy. A freewheeling discussion with then Governor Lt Gen SK Sinha brought to the readers Raj Bhawan's perception about the state of affairs in the state.

Epilogue, June 2010

19

tOWARDS vIBRANT j&k Strengths

TABLE : TOURISTS ARRIVAL FROM 2004 TO ENDING NOV. 2009 Year

Kashmir Valley Amarnathji

Domestic

Jammu

Foreign

Total

Ladakh

(Mata

Domestic Foreign

Total

Vaishno

Grand Total

Devi Ji) 1988

96055

662097

59938

818090

1992595

8608

16256

24864

2835549

2004

400000

358000

19000

777000

6100000

13000

22000

35000

6912000

2005

388000

585702

19680

993382

6251998

13781

2465

38446

7283826

2006

265000

412879

20009

697888

6950573

17822

26078

43900

7692361

2007

213565

417264

24576

655405

7222318

22102

28477

50579

7928302

2008

498075

550100

22000

1070175

6576000

39000

33000

72000

7718175

2009

373419

520454

20809

914682

7657000

47127

30446

78573

8650255

Domestic & Foreign Tourist Arrivals to Ladakh

Strengths

FAVOURITE Tourist Destination

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SUGGESTED READINGS

T

ourism generates employment, though it is difficult to measure or calculate the employment generation as these jobs are scattered across many sectors and cannot be identified without a proper survey. However, according to some rough estimates, 20% of people get direct and indirect employment from Tourism Sector. Tourism is one of the important revenue earners for people in the state, though the industry has suffered a lot due to law and order problems, but there are definite signs of its revival. The annual revenue earnings made under the Tourism sector during the last 4 years is about 103.62 crore. There has been substantial increase in the earnings during the last four years from Rs. 2072.26 lakh during 2004-05 to Rs. 2916.93 lakh during 2007-08. The percentage of earnings has been more by 40.76% during 200708 when put in comparison to the figures of 2004-05. The influx of tourists to J&K has increased from 28.35 lakh in 1988 to 77.18 lakh in 2008 showing an increase of 172.19% in tourist rush during the last two decades.

Vol. 4, Issue 6

VOL.

2,

ISSUE

4,

APRIL

2008

'TOWARDS FOOD SECURE JAMMU AND KASHMIR' In Epilogue's April 2008 issue, the world famous Agriculture Scientist and father of green revolution in India, MS Swaminthan outlined the measures for making Jammu and Kashmir food surplus. Agriculture Minister Abdul Aziz Zargar made a detailed account of government policies and the Vice Chancellors of two Agriculture Universities –SKUAST, Jammu and SKUAST, Kashmir –outlined the research activities for promoting agriculture in Jammu and Kashmir. This issue is an important reading for understanding agriculture in J&K Epilogue, June 2010

20

tOWARDS vIBRANT j&k Strengths

WORD Famous Handicrafts

T

he industrial sector produced handicraft goods for the year 2007-08 worth Rs. 1614.59 crore. The production figures for the year 2008-09 are RS.1100.00 crore approximately. The Department has a target of producing handicraft goods worth Rs.1150.00 crore during 2009-10. Exports of handicrafts have also maintained upward trend during the years. Handicrafts goods valuing RS.12.00 crore were exported during the year 2007-08.

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Strengths

However, there was a decline of export sales to Rs.7.00 crore during the year 2008-09. Handloom industry also occupies a premier position in the State's economy. There are approximately 37000 handlooms in the State, out of which Kashmir Valley is having a share of about 70%. In the cooperative sector during the year 2008-09 approximately 7.045 million meters of handloom fabrics valuing Rs.36.61 crore was produced.

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POPULOUS Livestock

L

ivestock sector engages a sizeable number of workforce not only in rearing of animals but also in processing, transportation and sale of animal products. As per livestock census of 2003, total livestock in the state has increased from 91.75 lakh in 1997 to 98.99 lakh showing an increase of 7.9%.

The number of livestock per 1000 of population as per 2003 livestock census was 926 animals while as at all India level the number of livestock per 1000 of population works out to be only 457 animals. Average livestock per household is 6 animals in the state compared to 3 animals at the national level.

Vol. 4, Issue 6

VOL.

2,

ISSUE

6,

JUNE

2008

TIME FOR TRANS LOC TRADE Jammu and Kashmir has suffered a huge cost of conflict. But there is always a time to turn the challenges into opportunities. June 2008 issue of Epilogue talked about Cross-LoC trade between two parts of Jammu and Kashmir as means of building not only peace but also strong economy. This issue was a sequel to our earlier issue on the subject in September 2007

Epilogue, June 2010

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tOWARDS vIBRANT j&k Strengths

PICKING Up Industrial Culture

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he Industrial sector of the J&K State comprising of manufacturing sector (both registered & un-registered), Construction, Electricity, Water supply and Gas and Mining & Quarrying is growing slowly. Overall contribution of Industrial Sector to GSDP has risen from 22.79% in 1999-00 to 27.43% in 2007-08. The slow growth in Industrial sector is mainly attributed to sluggish growth of manufacturing and construction activities within the secondary sector. The contribution of Manufacturing sector (both registered & un-registered) in GSDP of J&K is increasing day by day and has increased from 4.71% in 1999-00 to 6.56% in 2007-08. Taking individually, the manufacturing sector (Registered) contributes 3.09% and (un-registered contributes 3.46% to GSDP of the state. The contribution of Construction sector to GSDP of the J&K state is also increasing over the years and has increased from 7.59% in 1999-00 to 16.99% in 2007-08. The construction sector is growing significantly which is evident from the fact that its contribution to GSDP has more than doubled during the period from 1999-00 to 200708. The small scale industries sector plays a pivotal role in J&K state in the absence of large scale industrial set-up. It has recorded a constant growth rate. The number of small scale industrial units in the state has increased from 43689 in 2001-02 to 50472 in 2007-08, registering an annual average growth rate of 2.44 percent. As a consequence of increase in SSI units, employment generation increased from 1.94 lacs in 2001-02 to 2.30 lacs in 2007-08, registering average annual growth rate of 2.98%.

Strengths

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VOL. 3, ISSUE 2, FEBRUARY 2009

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ÂŤ Census 2001 has revealed that 55% households live in permanent houses,

32.15% in semi-permanent houses and 12.85% were living in temporary houses, and the relative position in India was 51.80%, 30.04% and 18.16% respectively. ÂŤ Categorizing the households living in owned, rented and other categories works out to be 93%, 5% and 2% for J&K and 87%, 11 % and 2% respectively for India.

Vol. 4, Issue 6

SETTING OUT AGENDA FOR OMAR GOVERNMENT Barely a month after Omar Abdullah took over as youngest Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir, Epilogue reached out to an array of best brains across the country. February 2009 issue listed key suggestions from experts of their fields on what they wanted the young Chief Minister to do for making Jammu and Kashmir the best state to live in. Among the participants were Amb Salman Haider, Lt Gen Patankar, PR Chari, Balraj Puri and Madhu Kishwar Epilogue, June 2010

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Weaknesses

INSUFFICIENT Connectivity

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s the saying goes, advantage never comes without a disadvantage or two.

While Jammu and Kashmir's location at map is it biggest strength it is a weakness as well. For its remoteness and mountainous terrain, Jammu and Kashmir faces special developmental challenges and is therefore known for a high cost mountain economy. Remoteness and isolation is a major drawback. It is landlocked and located far from the major markets. High transport costs make it harder to turn to the major markets to compensate for the drawbacks of the small size of its domestic markets. Despite 6 decades of planning, 1755 habitations are yet to be connected. The PWD road length per 100 Sq Kms of area for the state is 18.55 Kms which is lowest in the country. In many parts of the state, we have road density as low as 3.33 Kms (Leh) and just 6.84 Kms (Kargil) per 100 sq Kms of area. In rural areas with more than seventy percent population, road connectivity requires improvements.

The Jammu-Srinagar Highway is the only lifeline that connects the state to the rest of the country. The government has taken the initiative of creating an alternate highway via ShopianBufliaz popularly known as Mughal road. The construction of this road is presently going on at full swing and the project is expected to be completed by 2012 under the Prime Ministers Reconstruction Plan (PMRP). The topographical landscape of the State presents the alternates like civil aviation as a costly affair. However, commissioning of Sheikh-ul-Alam International Airport at Srinagar has opened the new vistas for enhancing connectivity at International level which will in-turn facilitate international tourism, promote international trade especially export which will provide a big push to the economy and generate avenues of better employment.

Jammu and Kashmir badly suffers from limited capacity in VOL. 3, ISSUE 12, DECEMBER 2009 the public and private sectors. The access to national capital markets/external capital is very limited for J&K. Most private BUILDING PEACE COUNTERING sector enterprises are still in the primitive stage of RADICALISATION organization. The residents of J&K experience higher volatility Any state can progress only when in their incomes. Overall, the range of per capita income and people make united efforts. rates of growth are not significantly different across Indian Bitterness between regions and state economies. Because of its small domestic markets, J&K religions can be the worst spoiler. is relatively un-diversified in its production structure and Epilogue's December 2009 issue exports. dealt with the agenda of countering Due to adverse climatic conditions during winters, radicalization for building peace. It agricultural activities remain suspended as a result of which, was about launching a dialogue only one crop is sown during the year in most parts of the between three regions –Jammu, state.

Kashmir Valley and Ladakh

weaknesses

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Vol. 4, Issue 6

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tOWARDS vIBRANT j&k Weaknesses

POOR Domestic Share in Revenues

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he revenue from own resources to the state is very If ranked in terms of per capita income at constant low (around 25%) of the total revenue receipts. prices in 2005-06, Chandigarh has got the highest Comparing the revenue situation of the state viz-a-viz its expenditures for last 5 years, there always remains per capita income in the country. Goa, Delhi, a deficit. This deficit has increased from Rs.1665.00 Pondicherry, Haryana, Maharashtra and Punjab are crore in 200-05 to Rs. 3386.00(E) crore in 2008-09. The also among the top ones. Jammu & Kashmir is placed fiscal deficit comes to around 9.7% of GSDP in 2008-09, at the lower 22nd place (total 35) which shows the which in the year 2006-07 was 6.6%. The Fiscal deficit state has not kept pace with the other States/UTs. of around 10% is unsustainable. It requires immediate corrective action. Multi-pronged strategy in terms of mobilization of additional resources, greater tax and non-tax collections, cost of recovery of use charges, full funding of Plan and expenditure compression, particularly establishment related, is required to be put in place. In terms of economic growth, Jammu & Kashmir is not placed at desired level having 21st place in the race at the India level. Among fast growing states/UTs economically, Chandigarh tops the list registering growth rate of 13.6% followed by Gujarat, Chattisgarh, Goa and Maharashtra. The bottom ranks are occupied by Jharkhand, Bihar and Manipur.

If ranked in terms of per capita income at constant prices in 2005-06, Chandigarh has got the highest per capita income in the country. Goa, Delhi, Pondicherry, Haryana, Maharashtra and Punjab are also among the top ones. Jammu & Kashmir is placed at the lower 22nd place (total 35) which shows the state has not kept pace with the other States/UTs. The bottom ranks in per capita income are held by the States of Mizoram, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Growth in primary sector which include Agriculture & Allied activities is stagnant at 1.79%-2007 -08(A) as compared to growth rate of 3.95% in 2007-08 at the national level. Secondary sector is also stagnant registering a growth of 11.18% against 11.45% at the VOL. 3, ISSUE 3, MARCH 2009 national level in 2007-08. Tertiary sector is slated to grow at 6.15% as against a growth of 6.26% in 2007-08. The growth of CONNECTING JAMMU AND tertiary sector at national level as compared to state is much KASHMIR ROAD, RAIL, AIR higher at 11.08% in 2007-08. The annual average Growth rate For any state, roads are the lifeline of of per capita income is not growing at the desired rate and economy. Poor communication hence is not able to keep pace with the national averages network is one of the biggest which results in poor purchasing capacity of the common disadvantages before Jammu and masses. However, there is not much wide gap in income disKashmir.

March 2009 issue of tribution since the income is almost fairly distributed among Epilogue discussed all means of the inhabitants of the state which has resulted into emercommunications in the state –road, gence of larger section of middle class society whileas in rail and air and suggested measures other parts of the country income distribution has wide gaps for improvement. which results in inequitable wealth and welfare distribution resulting in poverty, illiteracy etc.

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Epilogue, June 2010

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tOWARDS vIBRANT j&k Weaknesses

The Index of Industrial Production. (IIP) estimates of J&K State (1999-00) estimates were, 100.874 in 200405, 109.462 in 200506 and 108.82. in 2006-07, whereas it has crossed 200 mark in many other states of the country. The low growth index reveals that industrial performance needs to be improved further which in turn will generate high quality employment in the nonagricultural sector. « The share of agriculture and allied sectors towards GSDP has declined from 51.05% in 1980-81 to 31 % in 1999-2000 and around 25% in 2008-09 at constant prices. Less contribution of Agriculture towards state economy is attributed to the following factors: « Low Seed Replacement Ratio (SRR) in case of High Yielding Verities (HYV) of major crops is less than 10% in comparison to the national level SRR of 25%. To sustain continuous growth in productivity, seed management plays a vital role. « Stagnation in the average yield rate of 16.5 quintals per hectare. « Stagnated cultivable area (Le. 801 thousand Hectares). Stagnant net area sown percentage of 30% over the years from 2003-4 to 2008-09. « Availability of irrigation facility to only 42% of the net area sown. « Inadequate double cropping- due to lack of irrigation facility in some areas and climatic difficulty in others. « Small size of land' holdings. 94% of the land holdings fall in the size class of less than 2 hectare. « Lack of irrigation, as around 58% of the net area sown is rainfed. « Inadequate research in the field of agriculture in the state. « Inadequate Agricultural Finance facilities.

Horticulture is no doubt contributing substantially to the State GDP but there are certain problems/weaknesses, which are proving as hindrances for further growth of this sector.

The problem areas are: Absence of Post Harvest infrastructure nonestablishment of cold storages has locked the growth of this sector. At present, post harvest losses are estimated about 2030%. Experts say that there are losses to the extent of 10% at field level, 5% at transportation level, 2% during packaging, 9% at storage, 4% at processing Le.30% in total.

Surprisingly there is not even a single cold storage facility VOL. 4, ISSUE 5, MAY 2010 for apple preservation in the valley. The lack of this facility forces the farmers to sell their produce at cheaper rates.

THE MICROCOSM OF PIR There is inadequacy of agro-processing facility. 30% of PANCHAL apple produced in the state are of low grade which can be There are regions in the state which processed for value addition rather than direct sale. This have always complained for poor requires processing capacity of about 3 lakh tonnes per development and growth. May 2010 annum. The current capacity approximately of 65000 tonnes issue of Epilogue discussed the is not adequate. Demands in horticulture products can be issues before Pir Panchal region sustained by developments in agro processing. In fact, there comprised of the twin border districts is rising demand for new products like dried powder, fruit of Rajouri and Poonch. Dealing in based milk mix, juice pouches etc. and under these circumdetail with politics and economy of stances the private corporate sector can playa vital role in the region, there are suggestions for developing this aspect. what needs to be done for putting the «

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FASTER Population Growth

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he decadal population growth of 29.43% was recorded between (1991-2001) for the state whereas at the all India level population between same period increased by only 21.11 %. The population of state is growing at much faster rate than national level rate. As per the Census 2001 there were 892 females per 1000 of males in J&K State. The sex-ratio prevalent in the state was lower than the sex-ratio at the all India level which was 933 females per 1000 of males in 2001. Urban Population constitutes 27.82% of total population of J&K State against the urban population percentage of 24.81 at all India level.

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« The mineral sector is one of the core sectors for the development of the state. It comprises both major and minor minerals. The

contribution of this sector is 0.22% to the economy of the state. This sector is stagnant from the point of view of its contribution to state economy over the years. « Adverse sex ratio of J&K of 892 females per thousand males against 933 females per thousand males at national level. « The number of medical institutions have increased considerably over the years from 124 to 375 (1950-2009) but the dependence of people per medical institution is still very high. The health infrastructure in the state at all levels suffers from shortages that are both qualitative and quantitative in nature. « Overall Literacy Rate in the state in 2001 was 55.20% against the literacy rate of 64.84% at the national level. « The Contribution of Electricity, Water supply and Gas Sector to GSDP of the state is decreasing day by day and has decreased from 7.59% in 1999-00 to 5.41% in 2007-08. This sector is on constant decline. « Inadequate infrastructure in tourism.

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UNEXPLORED Power Potential

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ut of the identified potential, only 2318.70 MWs or 14 percent have been exploited so far, consisting of 758.70 MWs in State Sector from 20 power projects and 1560 MWs from three power projects under Central Sector Le. 690 MWs (Salal Hydro Electric Project) and 480 MWs (Uri-I Hydro Electric Project) and 390 MWs (Dulhasti). The prestige Baglihar Hydro Electricity Project, with a capacity of 450 MWs was commissioned during 2008-09. The base load requirement of the State is about 716 MWs and peak demand is currently pegged at about 2120 MWs. The sixteenth All India Power Survey has projected an increase in power demand of Jammu and Kashmir from 1706 MWs i.e. 9640 MUs during 2004-05 to 2120 MWs i.e. 14750 MUs during 2008-09. By 2010-11, the demand is expected to touch 2441 MWs i.e. 14321 MUs and 4000 MWs i.e. 19500 MUs by 2020-21.

The total availability of power from all the sources is just around 9147 MUs; the State is under stress to purchase power from other sources. To meet the restricted requirement of 10238 MUs in the current year, the State may require to purchase additional 1091 MWs through U.I and short term purchases besides banking arrangements with Punjab, Haryana and Chattisgarh. While the Hydel projects constructed in the central sector allow the state only 12% of energy actually generated, even in the state sector 450 MW Baglihar Hydel Project commissioned recently, the state has to sell about 50% of the energy to outside buyers as a pre-condition imposed by the rendering institutions leaving its own consumers striving for energy. Owing to Indus Water treaty, the state has to choose less economic designs of Hydel projects.

Another area of concern has been the transmission and distribution losses which are far above the National level. Transmission and Distribution Losses under power sector are as high as 72% which includes Commercial losses as well. The reasons for such losses are more technical which include existing outdated system. To minimize such losses the system needs upgradation and improvement. Apart from tightening of controls, major structural reforms are called for.

TABLETABLE : TOTAL AVAILABILITY FROM ALL SOURCES IN (MUS) : TOTAL AVAILABILITYOF OFPOWER POWER FROM ALL SOURCES IN (MUS) Source 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 1. From own generation 870.47 971.34 879.35 1658.59 2. Free Power 700.00 746.30 958.03 982.63 3. Total (1+2) 1570.47 1717.64 1837.38 2641.22 4. CPSU’s (NTPC & NHPC) 5714.00 5462.610 5859.89 5721.47 5. Other sources (SJVNL, THDC, TALA, NPCIL) 552.00 868.610 923.862 972.004 6. Under U.I (un-scheduled interchanges) 79.91 16.518 33.12 -314.46 7. Short Term Trading 0.864 52.927 8.345 8. Banking 14.036 45.584 117.632 9. Total 4 to 8 6345.91 6509.09 6915.38 6505.99 10. Grand Total (3+8) 7916.38 8236.53 8752.74 9147.217 11 Own gen as %age of total availability 19.84 20.85 20.99 28.87

Year

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 (RE)

Table OF : Status of Hydro Power GENERATED, Generated, Purchased and Sold AND SOLD TABLE : STATUS HYDRO POWER PURCHASED Actual Restricted Net Power Purchased Free Total Sold Billed Billed Demand Demand Generated (CPSU & Power (G+P) Energy Energy as (PDD + Others) %age of PDC) Total (G+P) 9640.00 7312.40 751.650 5893.85 672.50 7312.40 3856.00 52.74 10315.00 7916.38 870.47 6345.91 700.00 7916.38 4188.55 52.91 11343.00 8236.53 971.34 6509.09 746.30 8236.53 4030.84 48.94 14037.00 8752.76 879.35 6915.38 956.03 8752.76 3331.64 38.06 14750.00 9147.217 1658.59 6505.99 982.63 94147.217 3538.73 38.68 1511.00 10238.00 2387.39 7134.89 994.25 10516.53 3963.36 37.69

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2009-10(E) 2387.39 994.25 3381.64 6967.87 210.52 -167.02

7134.88 10516.52 32.17

Unit Realised

2421.17 2635.00 2676.26 2416.20 2560.37 3791.84

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FAR from main Market

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ocational disadvantage is another issue of concern. The main consumption markets of the country are far away from production centres in the state. Lack of modern and efficient infrastructure like fast means of connectivity aggravates the problem of transporting the fruits especially of perishable nature to the main markets of the country.

J&K has unexploited capacity to produce products which have value demand and ready for attractive markets both in India and Overseas (e.g. bio aromatics, medicinal herbs, organic specialty vegetables etc.) To enable exploitation of these opportunities, major programmes are needed to educate farmers to change production habits and grow crops which the market will reward.

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« Literacy Rate among males in the state was 66.6% against the literacy rate of 75.26% among men at the national level. « Literacy Rate among Females in the state was 43.00% against the literacy rate of 53.67% among females at the national level.\ « Average area covered per school in the state is 3.90 Sq Kms in 2008-09 against 2.88 Sq. Kms at the national level (2001-02).

weaknesses

« Gross enrolment ratio in classes (I-VIII) in the age group of 6-14 years in 2004-05 in the state was 74.45% against 93.5% in 2004-05 at

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the national level. « During the last two decades, urban population of J&K state has observed increase of 98.4% against the national average of 64.2%. The alarming increase in the Urban population has challenged the planners and administration to improve the living conditions of people in an integrated manner.

HUGE Supply - Demand Gap in Poultry, Meat Products

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s a part of food habit, per capita consumption of meat, poultry items and milk is higher in J&K state than all India level, but the state is deficient in meat, poultry, eggs and milk production thus making state to heavily rely on imports from other states.

The state spends annually an average RS.700.00 crore on the import of mutton and poultry from other states. Given the resources constraint nature of the economy, the State cannot bear this flight of capital. The imports have increased by 57% from 1995-96 to 2005-06.

A major constraint to the development of agriculture in J&K is the fact that only 50% of the ultimate irrigation potential of the state has been harnessed.

J&K State is also deficient in rainfall; development of irrigation potential in the state becomes necessary for reducing dependence on import of food-grains and other agricultural products.

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Opportunities

SEIZING the Opportunities

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OPPORTUNITIES

espite all the challenges, Jammu and Kashmir is a land of huge opportunities. An analysis of the resource base of Jammu and Kashmir would believe that this state can be next of none in throwing huge avenues of economic growth if the available opportunities are duly seized. The lush green forests, snow clad mountains, sweet springs, perennial rivers picturesque alpine scenery, great cultural heritage sights and pleasant climate of Kashmir valley wait for making the state an internationally acclaimed tourist destination. Here is a list of some of the areas which throw huge opportunities for growth.

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¢ Exploration/extraction of mineral wealth of the state like Gypsum, Sapphire, marble on a massive scale is possible. ¢ Situated in the lap of Himalayas, the state is abundant in water resources for generation of hydel power and irrigation facilitates in the state. ¢ The state has borders with Pakistan, Tibet and China which offers excellent opportunities for pursuing trade with these countries. Restoration of Old trade links and opening of new trade links will certainly help the state economy. ¢ The state has huge number of skilled manpower available which on account of shortage of resources remains mostly unutilised. This skilled manpower is available particularly in handicrafts, handlooms, and other export oriented sectors of the economy. Apart from this around 447653 educated persons constituting approximately 4% of the population of the state is still unemployed. This huge manpower requires to be engaged in productive sectors of the economy. ¢ Though there has been improvement in revenue receipts of the state from own sources in the recent past due to implementation of VAT System yet much more needs to be done. Tax as well non-tax revenue collection has to be increased considerably. ¢ Bringing down of Fiscal debt to 3%(now 3.5%) by the end of March, 2010 as per the fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) legislation passed by the State legislature was very difficult owing to the implementation of the 6th Pay Commission revising pay scales of the employees during 2009. ¢ To bring down fiscal deficit level following measures are required to be taken. ¢ Contain revenue expenditure by bringing moratorium on fresh recruitments for two three years.

Making recruitments against retrial vacancies only. ¢ Bring buoyancy in non-tax revenues. ¢ Bring moratorium on new creations in Government and PSEs. ¢ Monitor realization of non-tax revenue at the highest level to maximize receipts. ¢ Privatize Power Revenue collection to maximize receipts. ¢ Power purchases from CPSU's be reduced by 10% of the last years level. ¢ Launch special drives to collect all accumulated arrears of user charges. ¢ Achieve cent percent metering and regularization of all illegal power connections. ¢ Reduce transmission and distribution losses in power sector by doing away with all kinds of subsidies. ¢ Privatize Roads and Irrigation Projects.

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OPPORTUNITIES

Opportunities

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¢ Take-up only those projects which have the potential of generating adequate repayment capacity. ¢ Exploration/extraction of mineral wealth on a massive scale like Gypsum, Sapphire, marble etc. ¢ Pass own Service-Tax legislation in case Central legislation is not preferred. ¢ Bring in schemes that attract massive investment proposals in the state thus throwing open job opportunities for local youth in private sector. ¢ Revival of agriculture sector through application of latest techniques of agricultural growth. Addressing issues confronting agriculture like Seed replacement ratio, in-adequate irrigation facilities, marketing of produce etc. will certainly help in reviving agriculture. ¢ Development of secondary sector through establishment of small scale industries sector. Setting up of agro-based industries in the private sector which have high growth expectation in state. Encouraging private investment in setting up of industries in the state. For this, relaxation in the form of concessions and incentives, needs to be given. ¢ For maintaining an annual growth rate of over 8% for the state economy, agriculture sector needs to grow annually at the rate of 4-5%. Opportunities for reviving agriculture sector and improving its growth performance include taking -up of following measures. ¢ Transfer of technology of High Yielding Varieties to different crops like Paddy, Wheat, Maize etc. ¢ Encouraging Organic Farming. ¢ Increasing seed replacement rate from the current rate of less than 10% to 25%. ¢ Promoting dry land farming in Kandi area. ¢ Ensuring Hassle free credit facilities to farmers and insurance for all crops. ¢ Consolidation at Land holdings by way of legislation and its strict implementation. ¢ Strengthening of irrigation infrastructure to reduce dependence on rains. ¢ Management and development of Natural resources. ¢ Introduction of power tillers and Farm mechanization in hilly areas. ¢ Increasing agricultural research by way of establishing of seed testing and quality control system in agriculture. ¢ Improving farmers' access to markets by establishing mandies in all districts, which will promote market demand farming. ¢ Optimum utilization of existing irrigation potential and creation of additional irrigation potential will define the future course of growth of our agriculture. ¢ The dispute created by the Punjab government over Shah pur Kandi Barrage has created an impasse in extending irrigation facilities in the vast belt of unirrigated areas of Kathua, Samba and Jammu districts.

Resolution of the dispute will help in achieving the objective of self sufficiency of foodgrains. ¢ The potential of Horticulture in J&K is high given the rich diversity in its flora and fauna and varied agroclimatic conditions. For exploiting the potential of horticulture sector, the following are the requirements: ¢ Establishment of Cold Storage facilities to improve price stabilization, manipulation of supply to the advantage of the seller and for better sorting, grading and packaging facilities. ¢ To exploit the capacity by producing products which have value demand and ready for attractive markets both in India and Overseas (e.g. bio aromatics, medicinal herbs, organic specialty vegetables etc.).

Horticulture department has to act as a catalyst for educating the farmers to change their pattern of production techniques.

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OPPORTUNITIES

Opportunities

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¢ There are immense opportunities to use apple pulp etc. for making baby foods, jams, jellies, squash, juices etc. Food processing industrial units can be promoted by encouraging private sector. ¢ There is need to increase the scope of marketing for horticulture produce. Development of wholesale fruit and vegetable markets will provide updated information on the prevailing rates. ¢ Contract farming is another mechanism whereby private corporate sector can establish linkages between farmers and markets. Most states have endorsed contract farming. This can be useful instrument for linking farmers to corporate buyers who can provide information and inputs as per specific crops. . ¢ The state incurs RS.700.00 crore on import of meat, poultry, eggs etc annually. If the whooping sum of Rs 700 .00 crore gets pumped back into the economy, it would change the complexion of the State economy.

Therefore, there is an urgent need for improving the production and productivity of mutton and poultry to eliminate the gap between the supply and demand in the state. ¢ To promote organized farming and institutions of dairy, poultry and sheep cooperatives, the State Government should initiate appropriate policy measures and development interventions for promoting livestock sector in the state. ¢ Extension facilities to far off and backward places, genetic improvement, introduction of hi-tech commercial broiler for enhancing white meat production and Dropper breed of sheep to increase the mutton production, proper health cover can help a lot in the pursuit of this goal. Livestock is a fast growing sector and to boost it further, suggested measures and the programmes and policies already under implementation needs to be pursued with more vigour and determination. We are beset with the growing unemployment problem, which can partly have its answer in livestock and poultry farming on scientific lines. ¢ The ultimate irrigation potential in J&K has been assessed at 1358 thousand hectares, which includes 250 thousand hectares to be developed through major and medium irrigation and 1108 thousand hectares through minor irrigation. Only 50% of the potential available has so-far been harnessed. ¢ The natural factors are more conducive for handicrafts, village and Small Scale Industries and less to large and heavy industries in the state. Setting-up of small and medium-scale industries in' the traditional sectors along-with some new areas like food processing, agro-based units and metallic and non-metallic products will prove to be the main vehicle for accelerating economic tempo besides providing employment to the educated unemployed youth in the State. ¢ For creating industrial base in the state, necessary infrastructure needs to be created. Besides this, JKEDI should be strengthened for inculcating entrepreneurial behaviour among the youth of the state. ¢ Handicraft sector has a tremendous potential for foreign exchange earning and creating more employment opportunities in the state. It requires promotion of handicraft good at national/international level.

Holding national, international trade fairs, buyerseller meets, and interface with the overseas markets will help in this behalf. ¢ It is also a labour intensive cottage industry having considerable potential for generation of employment opportunities. ¢ To give boost to this industry requires laying focus on product design and diversification, providing credit facilities, enhancing weavers' productivity through upgradation of skills and use of efficient looms, Market access to handloom products through marketing incentives and wide publicity. ¢ The state has sufficient potential to exploit for more and more revenue generation from Tourism Sector. ¢ There is a need for exploitation of the potential available under tourism sector by way of creation of the necessary infrastructure of international standards. ¢ Providing of various types of facilities and tourism infrastructure particularly in the field of adventure tourism. ¢ The railways network is a recognized mode of commutation, which has started making its presence felt. This could be realized through commissioning of Qazi-gundAnaritnag-MazhomBaramulla Rail link. The rail connectivity under JammuUdhampurQazigund section is the final missing ]ink. This connectivity scenario has rendered the State dependent on road connectivity for common mode of commutation.

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Threats

ELIMINATING the Threats

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aving summed up the strengths and opportunities which place the state at a platform of optimism, the threats before Jammu and Kashmir are not very serious in nature or not a kind of list which can't be managed. Most of these threats, except linked to the natural processes, are about lackadaisical approach in tapping in the strengths and opportunities. Sample this: the fertile land of Jammu and Kashmir makes one of its core strengths but deficiency in food grains is at present a threat. This reflects that opportunities are there and the need is to capture them. In case of agriculture, the need is to apply best farm practices to improve the yield. Look at another case: electricity bill poses one of most serious threats to state's financial management and economic growth but it is not as serious a threat which goes beyond control.

There is a huge hydro-electric power potential and the need is of policy overhaul and visionary approach to harness the resources. Here is a list of some of the threats which need to be attended to:

o The State is situated on seismic zone which is vulnerable to natural disasters like earthquakes. Natural disasters cause high volatility in its State Domestic Product.

o The population of the state is growing at much faster rate than national level growth rate. This is highly undesirable keeping in view the resources available.

Threats

o The state is deficient in food-grains production by about 25%. o Industrial sector is highly under-developed as such cannot absorb growing population in productive sectors. o Agriculture is already over-laboured. This situation warrants check and controls. o The state has witnessed a two decade long turmoil, making it difficult to maintain law and order situation which

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lead to high growth in administrative/security related expenditures, besides, resulting in loss of opportunities for growth of economy and generation of employment. o The total outstanding debt of the State as on March 31, 2008 stood at Rs. 16659.00 crore. Apart from the stock of debt as indicated above, the State Government also resorted to an overdraft (00) of Rs.2299.53 crore from J&K Bank as ways and means (WAM) facility to meet temporary mismatches in liquidity. Further, drawals from General Provident Fund (GPF) amount to Rs. 4826.00 crore. When this is also taken into account, the overall liabilities, net of overdraft, as on 31st March, 2009 comes to Rs. 21485.00 crore. o Outstanding debt as a percentage of GSDP works out to around 48% as on March 31, 2009. However, operating on GAIL (Gross Accumulated Internal Liabilities), it works out to around 62% of GSDP. This is a considerably high level of debt and the debtGSDP ratio needs to be brought down to a level of 55% over the next five years or so. o The analysis of the economy of J&K reveals that the economy of the state is shifting from Primary sector to Tertiary sector. This is evident from the fact that the share of primary sector to state economy is declining and that of tertiary sector is increasing. That secondary sector is stagnant which is really a cause of concern. The state government should lay emphasis on development of secondary sector, the growth of which has a multiplier effect. o The lower growth rate in agriculture & allied sectors of J&K State is a major cause of concern from the point of view of inclusiveness. o Declining share of agriculture sector is a major cause of concern. Gaps between demand and production of foodgrains in the state is also on increase. Against the annual requirement of 2101.91 thousand tonnes of foodgrains, the corresponding estimated production during the year 2008-09 was 1627.50 thousand tonnes for feeding population of nearly 125.11 lakhs of the state with a percentage deficit of roughly 25% in the foodgrains. o Climate change-dryness, hailstorms is adversely affecting the horticulture sector in the state; o Untimely rains, inadequate irrigation facility are also affecting horticulture production in the state. o The forests are the precious wealth of the State and are known as Green gold. The forest wealth has depleted due to pressure of population which continues. o Illegal removal of forest produce and smuggling of timber is an area of concern. o Wild life is a measure of ecological balance and without wildlife, eco system cannot sustain. Poaching of wild life and illegal trading of wild life poses great threat to important Wildlife species, which include Hangul, Snow leopard, Musk Deer, Ibex, Kiang etc.

Vol. 4, Issue 6

Epilogue, June 2010

32

opinion Poll

Options for Future

Options for future A New Survey On Kashmir Shows Opinions More Split Than Ever

Poonch

Division Boundary District Boundary Pakistan administrative Kashmir Jammu & Kashmir Excluded from survey

T

his is one survey of public mood in Jammu and Kashmir, on both sides of the Line of Control, which is being reported and discussed in the western and other world media than among the people the findings are all about. Just two percent of the sample, claims the survey, have indicated an option to go with Pakistan. No wonder then, the Pakistani media is hardly touching this finding of the survey and laying stress on another aspect: an average 44 percent of respondents on both sides of LoC favoured independence and this response is further much polarized on Indian side with just less than two one cent in Jammu region hinting such an option. Barring a casual reporting bases on the press release of Chatham House, the London based think-tank, the media in Jammu and Kashmir have not offered enough space to findings or reactions to the opinion poll which the surveyor, a British academic says is the ‘first systematic attempt to establish the opinions of Kashmiris’.

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Vol. 4, Issue 6

Epilogue, June 2010

33

opinion Poll Options for Future

Commissioned by Dr Saif al Islam al Qadhafi in May 2009 and administered in September 2009, the survey has been conducted by Robert Bradnock of Chatham House who interviewed more than 3,700 people on both sides of the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir.

Bradnock and the think-tank Chatham House claim that this is the first ever opinion poll to be conducted on both sides of the Line of Control. The opinion poll co-designed by Bradnock and

Ipsos Mori was administered on conjunction with ‘Facts Worldwide’ (in India) and Aftab Associates (in Pakistan) and face to face interviews with 3774 respondents were conducted September 17 and October 28, 2009 after a pilot survey in August 2009. Surveyors claim that 2374 of total (3774) respondents were from 11 of the 14 undivided districts of Jammu and Kashmir as no one was interviewed in Kupwara in north

Kashmir, Pulwama in South Kashmir and the erstwhile Doda district (now comprising districts of Doda, Ramban and Kishtwar). Similarly 1400 respondents were interviewed in seven of the eight districts in Pakistan administered Kashmir (no one was interviewed in Neelum district). Survey was not extended to Gilgit and Baltistan. The respondents on both sides of the Line of Control were predominantly from the urban areas.

respondents have favoured a complete independence of Jammu and Kashmir on both sides of Line of Control but the results are heavily split. Only less than

one percent of respondents, shows the results, have indicated their choice for complete independence while 44% respondents in Kashmir Valley, 43% in

Myths and realities

T

hough the survey dispelled many myths and brought to fore stark realities but results have again underlined the fact that Kashmir is more complex a problem than anyone would have thought. A near total majority wants change in the present status of Jammu and Kashmir but the opinion is heavily split on what this change could be. Only less than one percent has favoured the status quo but there is no proportion of respondents which can be seen as a majority favouring one option or the other. On both sides of Line of Control only one percent of the respondents have said that would like the status quo to continue. Around 44% of

Respondents were asked if they were given the choice in a vote tomorrow, which one option would they vote for: ª Kashmir on both sides of the LoC to become independent? ª To join India? ª To join Pakistan? ª The LoC to be made an international border? ª India and Pakistan to have joint sovereignty over Kashmir? ª No change in the status quo?

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Combined % Strongly support permits

PaK Districts %

PaK+J&K AJK

J&K

Muzaffarabad

Mirpur

Bhimber

Kotli

Poonch

Bagh

Sudanhoti

33

31

47

30

44

52

22

33

16

38

Tend to support permits

10

18

7

23

16

16

5

22

15

44

Neither support nor oppose

5

11

3

5

17

24

5

20

4

21

Tend to oppose

7

3

9

1

3

2

1

5

5

5

Strongly oppose

38

28

41

22

34

14

34

32

43

14

Refused

1

1

*

1

0

0

1

*

*

*

Don’t know

6

*

8

1

*

0

*

*

0

*

Net difference

-22

+226 -112

+447

+99

+444

+222

+77

0

+442

Jammu and Kashmir Districts Top answers

Srinagar Jammu

Anantnag Udhampur

Baramula

Kathua

Leh*

Poonch

Rajauri

Badgam

Kargil*

Strongly support permits

24

31

6

68

52

23

7

12

43

Tend to support permits

7

2

9

1

4

12

32

13

11

7

34

Neither support nor oppose 2

4

2

3

2

6

8

1

*

2

10

41

66

Tend to oppose

7

11

9

16

10

10

3

0

1

10

3

Strongly oppose

54

39

40

9

51

2

2

64

81

49

2

Refused

1

*

0

*

0

2

0

0

0

2

0

Don’t know

8

2

8

5

27

1

2

0

0

18

8

Net difference

-229

-66

-88

+441

-551

+668

+779

-229

-664

-440

+772

Combined % Unemployment

PaK Districts %

PaK+J&K AJK

J&K

Muzaffarabad

Mirpur

Bhimber

Kotli

Poonch

Bagh

Sudanhoti

81

87

51

71

34

94

71

66

74

66

Govt. Corruption

56

22

68

23

21

42

36

8

8

7

Poor econ. Dev.

44

42

45

36

45

43

65

36

38

15

Human rights buses

37

19

43

23

13

32

31

8

12

5

\Kashmir Conflict

33

24

36

24

24

31

28

18

22

22

Jammu and Kashmir Districts Top answers

Srinagar Jammu

Anantnag Udhampur

Baramula

Kathua

Leh*

Punch

Rajauri

Badgam

Kargil*

Unemployment

96

98

94

82

55

95

96

95

87

80

48

Govt. Corruption

70

76

62

59

68

73

47

92

72

54

36

Poor econ. dev.

37

51

38

23

42

88

16

56

75

26

7

Human rights buses

87

3

73

6

88

8

18

2

5

55

42

Kashmir conflict

43

38

28

47

24

65

13

60

39

13

9

Vol. 4, Issue 6

Epilogue, June 2010

34

opinion Poll Options for Future

Combined %

PaK Districts %

Pak+J&K PaK J&K

Muzaffarabad

Mirpur

Bhimber

Kotli

Poonch

Bagh

Sudanhoti

27

22

29

22

17

4

38

28

21

5

36

18

43

15

18

12

25

20

20

10

11

23

7

30

39

21

11

21

22

10

LOC In favour of people trade current form In favour f people could over across freely In favour of trade could move across freely In favour in trade could move across freely

10

29

3

28

13

51

23

24

19

72

Not in favour in any form

8

7

9

5

8

13

2

7

18

*

None of these responses

1

1

2

0

5

*

0

*

*

1

Refused

*

*

*

0

*

0

0

*

1

0

Don’t know

6

*

8

*

*

0

*

*

*

1

85

92

82

95

87

87

98

93

81

97

47

41

50

45

58

32

37

41

42

20

46

47

46

43

31

63

48

44

38

82

58

70

53

73

71

83

59

65

60

92

NETS All in favour In favour of people could move freely In favour of trade could move freely In favour of people or trade could over freely

Jammu and Kashmir Districts Srinagar Jammu

Anantnag Udhampur

Baramula

Kathua

Leh

Poonch

Rajauri

Badgam

Kargil

1

44

11

51

1

59

5

93

90

1

0

77

12

67

6

75

11

54

0

0

69

85

1

17

1

4

4

12

21

5

9

3

15

LOC In favour of LoC in its current form In favour of people trade could over across freely In favour of people could move across freely In favour of trade could move across freely

4

6

1

5

1

10

1

0

0

1

0

Not in favour n any form

11

8

14

13

8

1

10

1

1

9

0

None of these responses

*

2

1

10

1

*

0

0

0

1

0

Refused

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

0

Don’t know

5

11

4

11

11

6

9

0

0

14

0

83

79

81

66

81

93

81

99

99

74

100

78

29

68

10

79

23

74

5

9

72

100

81

18

68

11

76

21

55

0

0

70

85

82

35

69

15

80

33

76

5

9

73

100

NETS All in favour In favour of people could move freely In favour of trade could move freely All in favour of people or trade could over freely

TABLE : SAMPLE SIZE BY DISTRICT Combined

PaK Districts

PaK+J&K

PaK

J&K

Muzaffarabad

Mirpur

Bhimber

Kotli

Poonch

Bagh

Sudanhoti

Unweighted total

3774

1400

2374

496

157

142

120

194

185

106

Weighted total

3774

1019

2755

256

114

103

193

141

135

77

Jammu and Kashmir Districts Srinagar

Jammu

Anantnag

Udhampur

Baramula

Kathua

Leh

Poonch

Rajouri

Badgam

Kargil

Unweighted total

350

457

325

206

316

159

50

114

137

210

501

Weighted total

408

537

397

251

397

187

39

127

163

212

39

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Vol. 4, Issue 6

Pakistan administered Kashmir have said so. What has come as a major surprise and perhaps first time so, 30% of respondents in Leh and 20% in Kargil are claimed to have favoured complete independence. However, when offered option of full integration with India, the response percentage went as high as 67% in Leh and 80% in Kargil favoured joining with India.

In a highly split intention across the regions, 21% of the respondents said that they would prefer Jammu and Kashmir joining India. Interestingly, one percent of respondents in Pakistan administered Kashmir have also said so.

In Jammu and Kashmir this opinion is though 28% but staggered across the regions. Not very surprisingly, 2% in Baramulla and 22% in Anantnag said they would opt for India. However, what leaves the analysts baffled is the claim of researchers that survey results showed only 6% in Poonch and none in Rajouri willing to join India. This, though, does not mean that the dominant opinion in Rajouri and Poonch wanted Pakistan to go with Pakistan or independence, the popular mood could be other options like greater autonomy.

While 47% in Jammu and 73% in Udhampur stood for India, as high as 67% voters in Leh and 80% in Kargil preferred their options for India. These results may be from individual districts but the questions are about future of while of Jammu and Kashmir.

While half of the respondents in Pakistan administered Kashmir preferred the region becoming a part of Pakistan, such an option did not find any takers in Jammu and Kashmir. 50% in PaK, with an overwhelming majority of 64% in Bagh district, said they would vote for whole of Jammu and Kashmir to join Pakistan; only two percent responses of this kind could emerge from Jammu and Kashmir and that too

Epilogue, June 2010

35

opinion Poll Options for Future

Combined %

sure of support for reuniting Kashmir, albeit under sometimes completely incompatible scenarios, in Poonch and Rajouri the population clearly would reject outright any reuniting of Kashmir. The remaining options received minimal support. Joint sovereignty, which has been discussed a lot during Musharraf era, attracted a total voting intention of just 2%, the status quo less than 1%. The total lack of voting intention for the status quo indicates how the overwhelming majority of Kashmiris would vote for an alternative political scenario to that which prevails today; it was the one option upon which virtually everyone agreed. Options for the political future

PaK Districts %

PaK+J&K AJK

J&K

Muzaffarabad

Mirpur

Bhimber

Kotli

Poonch

Bagh

Sudanhoti

Very important

80

75

82

75

74

75

84

64

92

40

Fairly important

11

23

7

24

22

17

16

34

6

59

Not very important

6

1

8

1

2

8

0

1

1

1

Not important at all

1

*

1

*

2

0

0

1

*

0

Refused

1

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Don’t know

1

*

1

*

*

1

0

0

*

*

Very/Fairly

91

98

89

99

96

91

100

98

98

99

Jammu and Kashmir Districts Very important

Srinagar Jammu

Anantnag Udhampur

Baramula

Kathua

Leh*

Punch

Rajauri

Badgam

Kargil*

91

95

99

34

66

89

79

98

90

62

80

Fairly important

6

17

2

2

1

13

22

9

9

0

*

Not very important

1

18

2

15

0

35

6

0

2

0

9 0

Not important at all

1

1

*

0

0

9

1

0

0

1

Refused

1

0

0

0

0

5

0

1

10

1

0

Don ’t know

*

2

0

3

0

4

6

0

0

1

*

Very/Fairly

97

79

97

82

100

47

88

99

87

98

91

from Srinagar and Badgam districts only -6% and 7% respectively. In rest of J&K no one agreed to vote for such an option.

The surveyors say: “these two options – for the whole of Kashmir to join either India or Pakistan – are the only two options that were envisaged under the UN resolutions proposing a plebiscite in 1948/49. Yet there is no evidence that either joining India or joining Pakistan would come close to obtaining more than a quarter of the total vote”. The survey results suggest that the plebiscite proposed by the UN resolutions have relevance in present times. However, there is no clear majority in prospect for independence either.

In J&K there is a majority in favour of outright independence for the whole of Kashmir in only four districts, all in Kashmir Valley Division. In five further districts support for independence is 1% or less. Alternative scenarios, as proposed over past few decades like making the LoC into a permanent border received the vote of 14% and was the preferred option for nearly all of those in Poonch and Rajouri districts.

In the other districts of PaK and J&K hardly any would prefer this as an option, with the exception of Jammu and Udhampur where those who prefer

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it are still in the minority. Thus while in all the other districts there is a meaCombined % More likely

PaK Districts %

PaK+J&K AJK

J&K

Muzaffarabad

Mirpur

Bhimber

Kotli

Poonch

Bagh

Sudanhoti

24

20

31

31

25

24

47

50

71

37

Less likely

36

31

39

38

28

21

36

21

34

22

No difference

34

30

36

28

40

54

38

26

15

4

Refused

1

1

1

1

*

0

2

1

0

1

Don’t know

4

1

5

2

*

*

*

5

1

1

Net difference

-112

+66

-119

-77

+33

+44

-113

+225

+116

+449

Jammu and Kashmir Districts More likely

Srinagar Jammu Anantnag Udhampur

Baramula

Kathua

Leh*

Punch

Rajauri

Badgam

Kargil*

14

2

68

2

6

1

4

*

34

2

55

Less likely

27

51

40

30

19

6

11

94

99

33

5

No difference

51

13

55

8

65

24

73

*

0

52

79

Refused

2

1

1

1

0

1

0

0

0

*

0

Don’t know

5

1

2

5

13

0

14

0

0

11

16

Net difference

-113

-116

-337

+225

-117

+662

-99

-888

-998

-229

-5

Combined % India and Pakistan

PaK Districts %

Total

PaK

J&K

Muzaffarabad

Mirpur

Bhimber

Kotli

Poonch

Bagh

Sudanhoti

24

39

17

38

44

74

23

37

40

30

started talks in 947/1951 Talks tarted in 2003

6

5

7

6

*

0

14

2

2

9

Talks tarted in another year

7

8

7

6

6

7

14

4

13

2

Aware of talks ut not date

38

34

40

33

39

11

45

39

42

15

Not aware of talks

7

7

6

4

5

1

3

14

*

40

Refused

*

1

*

*

1

2

2

0

*

0

Don ’t know

18

6

23

14

5

5

0

4

3

5

Jammu and Kashmir Districts Srinagar Jammu Anantnag Udhampur Talks started in 1947/11951 1 Talks started in 2003

11

Talks started in another year 2

34

0

32

Baramula

Kathua

Leh*

Poonch

Rajauri

Badgam

Kargil*

*

13

13

57

63

*

13

5

8

3

4

9

31

6

2

4

28

10

1

8

*

22

3

24

14

1

5

Aware of talks out not date 51

30

65

21

43

53

0

11

10

57

*

Not aware of talks

13

1

30

*

*

0

0

0

2

0

5

Refused

1

*

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

Don’t know

29

7

26

7

52

2

53

3

12

36

53

Vol. 4, Issue 6

Epilogue, June 2010

36

opinion Poll Options for Future

Importance of Kashmir issue

B

arring Kathua district in Jammu and Sudanhoti in Pakistan administered Kashmir, an overwhelming 80% majority of the respondents said that the Kashmir issue was personally very important to them -82% in J&K and 75% in PaK said this. Such perception was less than 50% in Kathua and Sudanhoti.

Main issues in regions

8

1% respondents on both sides felt that unemployment was among the most serious problems for them -87% in J&K and 66% in PaK said this. An overwhelming majority of 68% respondents in Jammu and Kashmir felt that there were high levels of corruption in the government while only 22% per cent had such an opinion in Pakistan administered Kashmir. 42% in PaK and 45% in J&K talked about poor economic development; 19% in PaK and 43% in J&K listed violation of human rights as one of the serious problems.

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Political processes and elections

A

n overwhelming majority particularly in Jammu and Kashmir appreciated talks between India and Pakistan and reposed faith in the dialogue process but, surprisingly most of them did not know what these talks were all about; they lacked a detailed knowledge. Around 75% knew that some talks were being held but only 6% had an idea that the peace process began in 2003 and what all it constituted. 55% of respondents in Jammu and Kashmir and 30% in Pakistan administered Kashmir felt that talks had increased their safety and a cumulative 48% of respondents believed that talks had improved the chances of peace in the region.

Vol. 4, Issue 6

Survey suggests that a significant majority on both sides of Line of Control sees the electoral process has contribution to make to the peace process. In an endorsement of Indian approach of voter participation in elections as signs of peace, over half of the respondents in Jammu and Kashmir felt that State Assembly elections in 2008 and subsequently Lok Sabha elections 2009 improved the chances of peace. Such a response was at 41% in the Pakistan administered Kashmir where respondents thought that Pakistan national elections of 2008 enhanced the chances of peace. Only 34% felt that State Assembly elections in Pakistan administered Kashmir had anything to do with improving the chances of peace in the region.

36% in total across both sides of the LoC, believed that militant violence would be less likely to solve the Kashmir dispute, compared with nearly a quarter, 24%, who thought it would be more likely to. In J&K only 20% thought militant violence would help solve the dispute, compared to 39% who thought it would make a solution less likely.

However, in PaK 37% thought militant violence would be more likely to solve the dispute, against 31% who thought it would make a solution less likely. Overall 34% thought militant violence would make no difference to finding a solution, 30% in PaK and 36% in J&K.

Epilogue, June 2010

37

opinion Poll Options for Future

Attitudes towards LoC and security concerns

F

LoC becoming a permanent border in any form – 7% in PaK and 9% in J&K, with the highest level of opposition in Anantnag District at 14%,, in J&K and in Bagh District, at 18%,, in PaK. There is widespread opposition to the requirement for a permit or passport to cross the LoC. Only 43% support Kashmiris having to use permits or passports – 57% in AJK and 38% in J&K. In J&K support is strongest in Jammu and Ladakh Divisions (aa high as 80% in Kathua and 84% in Leh), and weakest in Kashmir Valley Division (bb 10% and 41%))..

Around 765 of the respondents supported the removal of all mines on both sides of the LoC (881% in PaK and 75% in J&K). In J&K support for removal is strongest in the Kashmir Valley Division and along the LoC itself in Poonch and Rajouri.

Even more strikingly, 56% say they

ive years after opening the Line of Control for limited travel, only one percent of the respondents to this survey confirmed that they visited either side of the divide. 8% of the respondents claimed to have friends or family living on the other side of the LoC but only 1% of the total population had visited in the last five years. Less than 5% knew anyone who had crossed the LoC in the last five years. Respondents were asked a series of questions about their attitudes to the Line of Control.

Survey report says attitudes were nuanced. Overall, a majority of the total population, 58%,, were prepared to accept the LoC as a permanent border if it could be liberalized for people and/or trade to move across it freely, and a further 27% were in favour of it in its current form. Only 8% said they were not in favour of the Combined % Independence

PaK Districts %

Total

AJK

J&K

Muzaffarabad

Mirpur

Bhimber

Kotli

Poonch

Bagh

Sudanhoti

43

44

43

43

47

47

42

58

31

45

To join India

21

1

28

3

0

*

1

0

1

0

To join Pakistan

15

50

2

51

46

42

52

39

64

55

LoC to be permanent

14

1

19

1

1

5

0

0

3

*

Joint sovereignty

1

2

1

2

5

6

1

*

*

0

Joint sovereignty

1

*

1

*

*

0

0

*

0

0

Status quote to be maintained

*

*

*

0

0

0

0

2

1

0

Refused

1

1

1

*

*

*

4

*

1

0

Don’t know

4

*

5

*

*

0

0

0

0

0

Jammu and Kashmir Districts Independence

Srinagar Jammu Anantnag Udhampur

Baramula

Kathua

Leh*

Poonch

Rajauri

Badgam

Kargil*

82

95

0

30

0

0

75

20

1

74

0

Join India

8

47

22

73

2

63

67

6

0

10

80

Join Pakistan

6

*

2

0

2

0

0

0

0

7

0

LoC to be permanent

0

39

0

14

0

3

2

94

100

1

0

Joint sovereignty

1

2

0

0

*

12

0

0

0

0

0

Joint sovereignty

0

3

*

4

0

1

1

0

0

0

0

Status quote to be maintained *

*

0

*

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

Refused

2

*

0

2

0

2

0

0

0

*

0

Don’t know

1

8

1

7

2

29

0

0

0

7

0

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Vol. 4, Issue 6

would support the removal of all weapons from both sides of the border (771% in PaK and 50% in J&K). In J&K there are wide variations between districts in support for the removal of weapons.

In the Kashmir Valley and Ladakh support for their removal runs typically at or over 80%,, while in Jammu Division support is well below 20%,, with the exception of Jammu itself where it stands at 21%..

It is widely believed that the withdrawal of both Indian and Pakistani security forces would help bring a solution. Two-thirds (666%)) in J&K think the removal of Indian security forces will help bring peace, though there is a gulf between Kashmir Valley Division and parts of Jammu and Ladakh Divisions. In Kathua and Udhampur 1% and 8% respectively think it will help, and in Leh and Kargil about 40% do. In PaK 78% think the withdrawal of Indian troops will speed peace. But 52% in PaK also think the withdrawal of Pakistani security forces will improve the chances of peace, while in Indian side of J&K the figure rises to 82%.. In J&K this belief is around 80% in most districts except Ladakh Division and Baramula (59%).

An end to all militant activity is also seen as very important. In J&K, 77% of the population think an end to militant violence will help to bring a solution – highest in Kashmir Valley Division, but strong everywhere except Poonch and Rajouri, where the overwhelming majority do not believe that this holds the key to resolution.

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opinion Poll Options for Future

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opinion Poll Options for Future

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opinion Poll Options for Future

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opinion Poll Options for Future

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opinion Poll Options for Future

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opinion Poll Options for Future

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44

COLUMN

Gender

Women's Initiatives or the Lack of them in Kashmir MANISHA SOBHRAJANI

I

n the last few years, Shoojit Sircar's film T H E S T E E L W O M E N Yahaan has been one of the more memorable films shot in the Valley of Kashmir. It tells the story of army officer Captain Aman, played by Jimmy Shergill, and Kashmiri girl Adaa, played

by Minissha Lamba. The protagonists fall in love amidst the brutal realism of the Valley of Kashmir.

While the film deals with the issue of Kashmir very sensitively—militancy and militants, sieges, the press and journalists, the army—it does not portray Kashmiri women in the right frame. There is not adequate representation of the grit, determination and mettle of Kashmiri women. Adaa, the classic Kashmiri PARVEENA AHANGAR beauty, fights against her family and the Kashmiri society in general to be with her love; but there is nothing much she does otherwise.

And herein lies the problem when it comes to the depiction of Kashmiri women in Bollywood.

Why has no Bollywood film depicted the everyday travails of Kashmiri women? For the thousands of women in the Valley who have played multiple roles—bread earner, provider, home-maker, and most importantly the man of the house (in the absence of their menfolk)—their role in the turbulent circumstances of Kashmir has neither been acknowledged nor NIGHAT SHAFI PANDIT duly documented; for instance, the life of Parveena Ahangar, or Mehmooda Ali, or Neeraja Mattoo, or Girija Dhar, or Nighat Shafi Pandit, or Sakina Ittoo…

A possible reason could be the lack of an organised and collective women's movement towards stabilizing the position of women in the Kashmiri society. It is a well-known fact that Kashmiri women are skilled workers, whether it is the home front or the agricultural field; whether it is papier mache or crewel. However, there is nothing that the women do for themselves, nothing to establish their own identity as women.

SKINA ITTOO

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Vol. 4, Issue 6

Let us take a look at the different forms of expression women have found for themselves in some other parts of the world. 'Sujni Kantha' is a craft practised by the Rajput women of Bihar. It uses a running stitch to create embroidery of a narrative nature. Unable to express their plight, the women use the medium of embroidery to speak of their oppression and their hopes for a better future.

Many years ago, in the southern states of America, black slaves created quilts that spoke.

Their designs were signals that only their kind could understand. While some were messages of hope and cheer, others, hung casually out of a low cabin window, showed well marked-out escape routes. In China, scholars have discovered a language mat women had evolved among themselves—complete with a script that was less complex and intimidating than the official Chinese script. Using this secret script, women could create a line of communication that helped survival and even allowed growth. This, despite the fact that punishment for creating new languages was death.

Perhaps this is what women in Jammu & Kashmir need to do: develop a craft or a language which is only theirs—which helps them not just unburden their overwhelmed selves, but also allows for space for their growth; and which gives them a sense of coming together, of being there for each other.

Women in Jammu and Kashmir need to develop a craft or a language which is only theirs—which helps them not just unburden their overwhelmed selves, but also allows for space for their growth; and which gives them a sense of coming together, of being there for each other

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COLUMN

Notes from Margins

Long Years of Injustice M SHAMSUR RABB KHAN

O

n 24 May 1987, exactly 22 years ago on this day, 50 Muslims were picked up from Hashimpura locality of Meerut, out of which 42 were brutally shot dead and then thrown into the Upper Ganges Canal and the Hindon Canal by the Provincial Armed Constabulary (PAC) of Uttar Pradesh.

And in all these long years, the successive Uttar Pradesh governments have shown the least interest in pursuing the prosecution of the 19 accused PAC personnel for the crime to what the then veteran journalist Nikhil Chakravartty called "Nazi Pogrom against the Jews, to strike terror and nothing but terror in a whole minority Community". Although the cold-blooded massacre has long been erased from public memory, the relatives and survivors, lawyers, activists and journalists are the few who have kept the hope for justice alive.

While the perpetrators walk free with promotions, survivors and family members of victims recount the night of horror that is still fresh in their mind. How it all happened and why the justice is not yet done. When, as per the order of the late Rajiv Gandhi government, locks on the disputed Babri Masjid was opened in 1987, communal clashes broke out in Meerut due to which curfew was clamped and PAC personnel conducted house-to-house search in several Muslim localities. On May 24, 1987, 19 PAC jawans, under platoon commander Surinder Pal Singh, arrested 50 Muslims, mostly daily wage earners,

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labourers and poor weavers from Hashimpura locality of Meerut and took them, not to the police station, to the Upper Ganga canal in Murad Nagar, Ghaziabad. Notorious for their communal stance, PAC shot dead, one by one, in cold blood and then disposed their bodies off in the Upper Ganges Canal.

Then the PAC drove the truck to the Hindon Canal and threw the remaining dead bodies into it. In the shoot out, one PAC constable was injured, while four Muslims escaped the bullets. Next day, Sirajuddin, one of the escapees, filed a first information report (FIR) at the Murad Nagar Police Station. FIRs were also filed by the other survivors at two different police stations in UP, while two men who were shot and left for dead, miraculously survived, who are the eyewitnesses now.

Since it was perhaps the biggest case of barbaric cold-blooded murder by the state machinery in independent India, it outraged sections of the media, civil society groups and minority rights organizations. To assuage the rising sentiments, the UP government announced a meager compensation of Rs.20,000 for the victims. In response, the People's Union for Democratic Rights (PUDR) filed a writ petition in the Supreme Court, asking for a judicial inquiry and more compensation. The apex court directed the UP government to pay an additional compensation of Rs.20,000 to each of the families of the victims.

Still that was not enough. Due to the

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findings of an independent inquiry conducted by PUDR and pressures from civil society groups, which demanded strict action against the PAC personnel, the then Congress Chief Minister VB Singh ordered an inquiry by the Crime Branch Central Investigation Department (CBCID) in 1988. After deliberate delay, the CBCID filed a charge sheet against 19 PAC personnel under Section 197 of the Criminal Procedure Code (CrPC) in 1994. The Chief Judicial Magistrate (CJM), Ghaziabad issued summons to the 19 accused PAC personnel, but they did not appear in the court. In fact, the accused were not arrested for the next 13 years in spite of the fact that the CJM Ghaziabad issued bailable warrants six times between 31 January 1997 and 16 February 1998 and of non-bailable warrants 17 times between 20 April 1998 and 29 April 2000. Did it ever happen in the history of judicial trial? Out of 19 accused, 16 were forced to surrender before the court in May 2000 only at the intervention of the Supreme Court, but all of them got bail from the Ghaziabad District Judge who observed that they are 'government servants' so they will not abscond, even though he knew their past records of non-appearance in the court.

In 2001, in response to a petition filed by the victims before the Supreme Court, the case was transferred from Ghaziabad to New Delhi for speedy trial.

The Supreme Court transferred the case to the Tis Hazari Court and ordered for

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COLUMN Notes from Margins

day-to-day hearing. However, the case could not be argued for long since the UP government not only deliberately delayed the appointment of the Special Public Prosecutor (SPP), but also it did show chilling apathy towards justice.

Moreover, the UP government, time and again, failed to comply with the directions of the Supreme Court, for example, the first of these directives was made in 1996 while hearing a petition on the Hashimpura massacre. To add to it, the recommendations of Justice CD Parekh Commission on Meerut riots were rejected by the Kalyan Singh government. So, the case did not make any headway and the accused roamed about freely. Even SPP appointed by the UP government took no interest in discharging his duties.

In February 2004, citing the sluggish pace of court proceeding, the Supreme Court issued a notice to the Director-General of Police (DGP) and the Chief Secretary of UP to appear before it in person. In November 2004, the UP government appointed Surinder Adlakha, a less than mediocre lawyer, as SPP, and on 15 June 2006, when the case began in the Tis

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Hazari Court, the Additional Session Judge, NP Kaushik, wrote a strongworded statement against the illpreparedness of the SPP. Exactly 19 years after the Hashimpura massacre, the Tis Hazari Court framed

The government's apathy helps perpetrators escape the legal punishment more than it aids the victims to get justice.

charges of murder, conspiracy to murder, attempt to murder, tampering with evidence etc., under various sections of the IPC. Yet, the SPP failed to present the case properly due to which prosecution evidence was not

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recorded though the witness-cumsurvivor, Zulfikar Nasir was present in the court. Later, the Tis Hazari Court recorded the testimony of survivors, Zulfikar and Mohd Naeem, and announced a compensation package of Rs 4,60,000 for the 42 men killed by the PAC. In 2007, the victims and their relatives filed 615 RTI applications seeking information related to the killings. To their shock, the State Information Commission revealed that Hashimpura massacre finds no mention in their Annual Confidential Reports (ACRs)! Even more shocking was the fact that the ACRs of the accused bore positive remarks about their honesty and good conduct.

On 14 May 2010, Tis Hazari Court recorded statements of four witnesses who narrated how 42 Muslims were rounded up by the PAC personnel. Among the witnesses who recorded their testimony were Sirajuddin, Abdul Gaffar, Abdul Hamid and the then Officer on Special Duty (OSD) Law and Order G L Sharma. Which means the case is still far away from over and how many more years it will take is quite uncertain. However, the Hashimpura massacre has proved beyond doubt that when it comes to prosecute police personnel accused of brutal killings of civilians, it is so difficult to prosecute them. The government's apathy helps perpetrators escape the legal punishment more than it aids the victims to get justice. Besides, the Hashimpura case points to the fact that there is urgent need to assess the role of public prosecutors who, in many cases, for example, the 2002 Gujarat riots have only helped the state to protect the accused. The victims of Hashimpura massacre still wait for the day when the 19 PAC personnel will be booked.

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EXCLUSIVE SERIES

New Research on Kashmir AUCHINLECK:

Af-Pak and Kashmir RAKESH ANKIT

Indo-Pak relations then, in particular the Kashmir conflict, have always been viewed in London and Washington in the prevailing complex and dynamic international backdrop- be it the Cold War or the War on Terror.

F

ield Marshal Sir Claude John Eyre Auchinleck, DSO (1884-1981) was commissioned in the British Indian Army in 1903. A stellar career saw the 'Auk' – as he was popularly known – hold the offices of the Deputy Chief of General Staff, Army HQ, India (193638); C-in-C Middle East (1941-42); Member of Viceroy's War Executive Council (1943-45); C-in-C India (194314/15 August 1947); and, Supreme Commander, India and Pakistan (14/15 August-30 November 1947). He was made a Field Marshal in 1946.

The man after whom the Auchinleck Sainik Aramghar/Aramgah is named at the Old Delhi Railway Station has enjoyed a good, albeit little, reputation in India as little is known about him. The following words, based on the Auchinleck Papers available at the John R y l a n d s L i b r a r y, U n i v e r s i t y o f Manchester, seek to add some flesh to the bare-boned and framed figure of the dashing 'Auk'. This piece has two distinct though linked parts: in the first segment through three pieces of correspondence, it attempts to shed some light on Auchinleck's views on Nehru's government and its role in the 'process of partition'; in the second through two papers written by Auchinleck – a decade apart in May 1946 and March 1956 – it

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attempts to bring to relief his views on the birth and significance of Pakistan.

The conclusion evaluates the elements of continuity in the present Western perception from the Auchinleck Analysis of half-a-century ago.

Eight weeks into Indian independence and partition, in a report on the situation in India and Pakistan, Claude Auchinleck wrote thus to London: 'I have no hesitation whatsoever in affirming that the present India cabinet are implacably determined to do all in their power to prevent the establishment of the Dominion of Pakistan on a firm basis. In this I am supported by the unanimous opinion of my senior officers, and indeed, by all responsible British officers cognisant of the situation. Indian leaders, cabinet ministers, civil officials and others have persistently tried to obstruct the work of partition of the armed forces. The attitude of Pakistan, on the other hand, has been reasonable and cooperative throughout'.1 From mid-August to end-November 1947, Auchinleck as the Supreme Commander of the Indian and Pakistani forces (over and above their respective Commander-in-Chiefs) presided over an increasingly problematic office whose job it was to smoothen the 'process of

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partition', particularly of the old British Indian Army. The Nehru government and the Prime Minister himself appear to have had little love for the office as well as the person of the Supreme Commander and the feeling was well reciprocated.

Auchinleck bitterly complained to Geoffrey Scoones at the Commonwealth Relations Office (CRO), London that the Indian government 'are the people who have made the present position impossible and they are the people who would like to get control over the British officers and other ranks who will still remain after I go'. To prevent this, Auchinleck recommended General Arthur Smith as his successor because he was 'entirely against bowing to the wishes or prejudices of the Indian Government in this matter'.2 India pressed for the closure of the headquarters of the Supreme Commander by 30 November 1947 while Pakistan understandably, afraid as it was of Indian dominance and mistrustful as it was of Indian intentions, wanted it extended upto 1 April 1948. A frustrated and anguished Auchinleck was forced to recommend the closure of his own office because of what he called 'the hostile atmosphere in Delhi which made it impossible for him and his offi-

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EXCLUSIVE SERIES New Research on Kashmir

cers to discharge their responsibilities'.3 As he later wrote to Philip NoelBaker, Auchinleck submitted a proposal to dissolve his own office to the Joint Defence Council on 16 October 1947 in a meeting at Lahore which was promptly accepted by India and with equal alacrity rejected by Pakistan. In his letter to Noel-Baker, Auchinleck left no room for any doubt as to what was to be blamed for his departure which was caused by the 'absence of the necessary cooperation, harmony and goodwill between the parties concerned', namely, the 'obdurate attitude of the Government of India towards the Supreme Commander's headquarters and India's refusal to cooperate [which adversely affected] an impartial discharge of duties'.4 All of the above makes it easier to understand why when the Kashmir dispute broke out, the British official mind – both in the subcontinent and at home – immediately seized upon it as another factor in the attempted downfall of Pakistan at the hands of the stronger, aggressive India which – to them – had not accepted partition. Pakistan's usefulness against Communism in the former USSR and China (made acute in the light of 'the unrealistic Indian thinking on foreign affairs'), the unstable Afghan-Pathan territory and Anglo-Arab relations (particularly after the unpopular creation of Israel) meant that Pakistan was to be helped on Kashmir and other issues with India 'even at the risk of ruining our present entirely friendly relations with India'5 and 'whatever the merits of the case might be'.6 Auchinleck's views on the future of Kashmir were sharp and succinct. He got a note sent to Philip Noel-Baker via R. H. S. Allen on 8 November in which he flagged all the urgent British fears and concerns: 'If the Muslim raiders, backed by

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Pakistan, are successful in capturing Srinagar, the Indian government will lose face and will probably be forced to take action elsewhere to restore their prestige'.

'If Indian forces establish control over Kashmir, it may be followed by severe repercussions against Muslims – with Afghan help and Russian support leading to fanatical war against Pakistan'.

'Both alternatives being equally bad, the FM thinks that partition is the only practical solution. The most seri-

From mid-August to end-November 1947, Auchinleck as the Supreme Commander of the Indian and Pakistani forces (over and above their respective Commanderin-Chiefs) presided over an increasingly problematic office whose job it was to smoothen the 'process of partition', particularly of the old British Indian Army.

ous aspect is the way in which the British are being forced to take sides'.7 Auchinleck had grasped the significance of the birth of Pakistan for the Imperial/Commonwealth Strategy as early as May 1946 when in 'a Note on the Strategic implications of the inclusion o f Pa k i s t a n i n t h e B r i t i s h Commonwealth', he had concluded that Pakistan would 'enable us to dominate and control an independent Hindustan [so] as to prevent her or her potential allies from disrupting our sea and air communications in the Indian Ocean area'. Secondly, Pakistan 'would aid us in maintaining our influence over the

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Muslim countries of the Near and Middle East and so assist us to prevent the advance of Russia towards the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean'.8 Ten years later, Auchinleck was still emphasising that the survival of Pakistan as a sovereign state is essential for the position in the Middle East and the growing threat of Russia and therefore 'the openly hostile encouragement given by India in her policy of forcible absorption of Kashmir and the equally blatant support of Afghanistan in her pro-Pakhtoonistan separatist campaign' must be checked.

For Auchinleck, 'the whole theory of the defence of the Middle East as planned under the –then Baghdad Pact [later CENTO] becomes untenable' if Pakistan is not defended against the triad of Russia-Afghanistan-India. In a colourful paragraph, the 'Auk' intoned thus: Pakistan 'knows that her existence is at stake and has not forgotten India's mental reservation at the time of partition that sooner or later Pakistan would be re-absorbed by her. Pakistan believed, not without reason, that this conviction still persists and that, so long as Brahman rule continues in India, the urge to restore the ancient frontiers of Asoka's empire will endure'.

Next came a prophecy which is as true today as it was when first penned: 'Pakistan looks to the West, but should she lose faith in the Western bloc as she appears to be doing today, and realising that she can expect no quarter from the East, she must in desperation look elsewhere for help for she knows she can not stand alone'.

And the Field Marshal ended with a suggestion the latest instalment of which is the Kerry-Luger Bill worth $ 7.5 Billion over the next five years: 'Proof must be readily given that aid can and will be given in the form required by

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EXCLUSIVE SERIES New Research on Kashmir

furthering US-UK interests in the 'middle of the planet' (In 1949 it was, particularly, 'in view of the Palestine situation'; in 2009, it is about 'our image in the Middle East' and 'to root out militant

Auchinleck's views on the future of Kashmir were sharp and succinct. He got a note sent to Philip Noel-Baker via R. H. S. Allen on 8 November in which he flagged all the urgent British fears and concerns 'If the Muslim raiders, backed

by Pakistan, are successful in capturing Srinagar, the Indian government will lose face and will probably be forced to take action elsewhere to restore their prestige'.

terrorists [and] to gain legitimacy') has transcended from the past of the Baghdad Pact to the present of AfPak and now PakFirst.

Indo-Pak relations then, in particular the Kashmir conflict, have always been viewed in London and Washington in the prevailing complex and dynamic international backdrop- be it the Cold War or the War on Terror. Indo-Pak relations have always been intertwined with a fear for the future of Pakistan – both from India and otherwise – in Anglo-American perceptions given Pakistan's enduring usefulness (In 1949, the Anglo-American perceptions were focused on Pakistan's usefulness in their cold war against the former USSR; in 2009, they are focussed on Pakistan's place in their war on terror against the Al-Qaida and the Taliban). The unrest and dissidence in the entire area from Kabul to Kargil encompassing the great tribal frontier – which Washington and London have continued to fear through the transfer of power in India (1947), Soviet invasion of Afghanistan (1979) and the American war on terror (2001- ) continue to make South Asia the playing board for various 'Great Game(s)'.

GRAPHIX

Pakistan and not merely to fit in with our given needs or those of the USA'.

The fundamental Anglo-American concerns regarding Pakistan have remained unchanged. They have been two-fold: first, political foment and economic distress may produce an over-all situation of near-chaos with the potential of creating alarming vacuums of power (In 1949, it was the former Soviet Union that stood to gain most from those conditions; in 2009, it is the AlQaida and the Taliban); second, access to the raw materials, present and possible productive capacity, manpower and military bases (In 1949, the targets were the former Soviet Union and the People's Republic of China; in 2009, the Al-Qaida and the Taliban on land and the People's Republic of China on sea).

Pakistan's willingness to participate in the bilateral and multi-lateral security arrangements involving Washington and its standing along with, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran (till 1979) and Iraq (till 1958), as a key component in

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50

fEATURES

Notes on Survival

Development with a vengeance the only roadmap for Bastar ASHA SHUKLA

I

n an increasingly violent confrontation between security forces and Naxal groups adivasis live under a constant shadow of fear and uncertainty. They have long suffered neglect by the authorities on their core developmental needs and perhaps the conflict has its roots in this deprivation.

This needs course correction urgently and the onus lies with the government to right this wrong.

The shock and outrage at massacre of men of CRPF near Chintalnar, Bastar in April still rankles deep. The senseless violence and the tragedy of human lives being snuffed out in a jiffy, how can one get inured to that? Travelling down the road towards the area, one notices abandoned farms and dilapidated villages along on both sides of the road. Forests are a little way off, surrounding these villages or erstwhile villages. For a state where electricity is produced in abundant quantities, it was strange to note that after Jagargunda, Dantewara district there was no electricity in and around Chintalnar. As evening progresses, the darkness engulfs the entire region.

Yet this region, lying close to the Andhra Pradesh border, has seen better days, of peace and quietude as the tribal way of life meandered along its course. Today there is another kind of quietude, a disturbing one. In the early nineties life was altogether different here. Amidst one of the finest teak forests in the region, there would be 'Haats'

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or 'Rural Bazaars' at Chintalnar and Jagargunda, both immensely popular locations drawing people from across 40-50 villages. This includes Basguda and Bijapur just 12 and 81 km away respectively from these 'Haats' .

This region produces the best quality of tendu leaves. Every year around April when the minor forest produce like tendu is gathered and sold, the scene changes dramatically. From the local, it becomes regional, even beyond that.

Traders from within and outside the state make a beeline for this valuable produce and nature of trade is transformed. The roads from Chintalnar to Jagargunda are filled with trucks laden with the bounty from the forests, the place is abuzz with activity and business is brisk. They source Tamarind, Char, Tendu leaves, Salbeej, Teekhur, Dhoop from the villagers, items which find ready markets and fetch handsome returns .Many a tradesman has made a fortune in the markets of Raipur and cities outside.

During the 90s, this flurry of activity happened amidst an air of normalcy.

Buses would ply between Kanker and Jagargunda. Transport links in the area were good linking all villages in Jagargunda. After 90s, the situation began to deteriorate. What is ironical however is that this prosperity does not light up the lives of the adivasis, who over the last few decades have been living under a shadow of Naxal presence.

Even while going about their normal

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activities, like forest gathering, selling their produce, they know they can be questioned any time. The control over their own lives, earnings, movements are all compromised. It is not only an implicit tension or uncertainty that they live with but an explicit form of aggression which they have witnessed like the damage of the existing infrastructure like roads by Naxal forces.

Over the years, there have been tangible signs of this deterioration in this area which today is wracked by violence. The lives of the people, mostly adivasis has been an endless saga of deprivation, of decline in all those areas of life crucial for their development.

Till the 80s schools used to function, primary, middle to high school. There was one school for girls, one was a residential one where teachers used to reside.

Gradually, all the schools were destroyed, the studies of students disrupted and signaling another kind of decline, not in terms of physical structures but young lives becoming directionless and their development going awry. In essence, the destruction of schools and its ripple effect has snatched away from these young minds, the chance to create a future for themselves a future which could be wholly different from the environment that they have grown up in.

There have been other casualties as well. In the earlier times there used to be a healthcare centre with doctors, nurses and compounders where people

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fEATURES Notes on Survival

from nearby villages would flock for treatment. What people remember most is the commitment of the doctors who served in these areas, responsive and caring to their patients.

Today there is a hospital in Chintalnar but now manned only by a nurse.

There are doctors appointed but they barely make the time to come. Instead of the commitment that people found so comforting, there is an uncaring attitude.

One can discern contributory factors to the deterioration that has set in. The region, which has a large population of 'Gond' adivasis, has faced to different degrees, the brunt of unresponsive and uncaring administrative machinery.

Whether it was the police or the forest department personnel, revenue officials, forest guard or the patwaris, the developmental needs on the ground have been ignored or sidelined. The machinery instead was made to suit the needs of the officials who were in charge Amidst these lacunae, the Naxal forces bred and took root which today we see as a brazen force. Over time there have been unseen casualties, lost opportunities. The people here have lived compromised lives, their health, education, livelihoods and even movement being affected by both an insensitive administration and in a more overt form by the presence of Naxal forces which have been embedded in the region.

A moot question is endemic to this entire region. For the adivasis living here, the answers they seek lie beyond the conflict which is leading to increasingly violent confrontation between Naxal and the security forces. The answers would lie in first raising fundamental questions on how they can make the journey from the margins of society to its mainstream. Addressing these questions and making governance not only responsive but development-centered is the need of the hour. The government needs to pull out all the stops to not only ensure peace in the region but to integrate the adivasis into mainstream development processes.

estling amidst the mountains and valleys of north Kashmir, in Hanjipura village Kupwara district, panic has gripped the population of 1300 over the last few months. The reason is not the heightened militant activity which the region has been prone to, but the river Kahmil originating in the Kajinag cave in Tangdhar area is in spate. There has been incessant rain, more than usual for this time of the year, pouring down in sheets till the river has overflowed, The river bed, the locals say is a shallow one and cannot hold this massive quantum of water.

The flooding is not only restricted to Hanjipura but threatening to affect downstream villages, Goshi, Bahipura Mughalpura and Hadmulla, all along the bank of the river. People here are largely involved with agriculture, the cultivation of 'dhan' or wheat. Animal husbandry is also a source of livelihood. Now pre-empting the danger, they have had to flee to safer areas.

The name of the village is derived from Hanjis or fisher folk. There is a small Mohallah of this community. Muhammad Ashraf Dar from Hanjis community, says, that the rains invariably brings with it trepidation and a sense of foreboding. This is only natural as they are the first in the line of fire both in terms of their work and their habitat. “. We are living on the bank of river and likely to get affected first. We are just a Muhallah of 20 choolas (a (colloquial term literally meaning 'kitchens' but denoting separate families living perhaps together) we are scared of losing everything that we have in every rain.”

Mughli Begum, says, “We don't have any facility in the village. We face the maximum damage during flood. We have very little in the name of fields. Flood destroys even that. We not only lose our crops but the fields get filled with small stones and sand which makes farming impossible in the next season.” She further said, “Digging Kahmil a little deeper, and a strong dam could save us from these miseries. But who will do this?”

Gulam Rasool Wani, 'Numbardar' (local headman) of Hanjipura, remembers how people fled from the fury of the swollen river, fearing for their lives, how they abandoned their homes, fields, their cattle.

35% of agricultural land was laid to waste after the last flood, rues Wani.

That was a long time ago, in 1991 but the memories are painful enough to evoke a worried response.

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Vol. 4, Issue 6

An unlikely flood in Kashmir NASEER AHMAD LONE

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Epilogue, June 2010

52

fEATURES Notes on Survival

It was much after that, locals recall that the then Chief Minister, Ghulam Nabi Azad came to Mughal Para to inaugurate a bridge Sensing an opportunity, village representatives made an appeal for deepening the river bed, to avert calamity even if it rains heavily. They recall that the CM directed the Deputy Commissioner to take note, but nothing happened after that. And now nearly two decades later, history is repeating itself. With a new CM and undoubtedly a new DC in place, the locals may have to begin afresh.

The distance between the 'awam' (common people) and the 'hukoomat' (government) is actually longer than the villagers of Hanjipura can handle. The panchayat is only in name, with its office locked up on most days. Even in a tiny village, the political lines are clearly drawn. Supporters of the ruling National Conference (NC), the (PDP) and the Congress. So a consensus on village matters and collective action are only remote possibilities.

Re c e n t l y t h i s w r i t e r h a d approached one of the local weeklies, 'Chattan' with an article on the situation in Hanjipura which was subsequently published.

This elicited a quick response from the government with the Deputy Commissioner visiting the site along with the Superintendent of Police to assess the situation. This was followed by visits by the Army stationed there whose effort was to help evacuate villagers. For the locals, this attention from the authorities could mean that the tide has turned, but they are watching anxiously how it pans out.

Meanwhile, life has been disrupted. Apart from livelihoods being affected, school routines have been disturbed. Muhammad Ameen Rathar, teacher in the middle school says “We

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have to declare a holiday during flood.

We fear losing some of students to it. We can't help but declare a holiday for one and a half months. This is a loss of the children's studies.” The sense of fear runs through the children as well. Says Basharrat, a student of Class VIII, “I am afraid of river flow. The river is very close to our school. We get scared as the water level increases. The road to the school is also not good.”

Inspite of the disruption, the lack of cohesiveness within the local community to effect change and a weak response from earlier interventions by the authorities, there is hope which has an edge of despair. Ghulam Rasool Wani says “This river is affecting the future of our children. Their studies are affected.

If they don't get educated, our society will move towards decline. Only because of this river, the people of the village have to sometimes, starve. It is a very painful experience. We, thousands of people from this area, demand from the government to dig the Kumhal River deep and build a strong dam on it. Only a government can do such a mammoth task. “ Wani is as clear and categorical about the onus being with the government as he is about the consequences if things do not change on the ground. “ Or else, one day, we will go into the mouth of death”. A dire prediction but one that the authorities need to take note of urgently. It reflects the collective consciousness of the people of Hanjipura who may be at the moment down but not wanting to be out.

Writings in this section are supported by Charkha Communication and Development Network.

For more see : www.charkha.org Series Editor : Sujata Raghavan

Vol. 4, Issue 6

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