Aging and Demographic Potential in the Balkan Countries in Transition by ERSTE Foundation

2009â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2010

ERSTE Foundation Fellowship for Social Research Ensuring Income Security and Welfare in Old Age

Aging and DemoÂ graphic Potential in the Balkan Countries in Transition Vassil Kovatchev

Austria, Vienna

Center for population studies Bulgaria, Sofia

Demographic Aging and Demographic Potential in the Balkan Countries in Transition

Vassil Kovatchev 1734 Sofia, Bulgaria Studentski grad, bl. 58, entr. A, 617 e-mail: vkova4ev@abv.bg mob.tel. +359 88 7457896

TABLE OF CONTENT Chapter

page

Geographical margins

Methods

Demographic ageing

Types of demographic Potentials

Impact of population aging on the dynamics of life potential

Demographic factors for the life potential

Social-economic factors

RESULTS

FINAL CONCLUSIONS

REFERENCES

LIST OF TABLES AND GRAPHS Figure / table Figure 1. Schematic map of the Balkan countries in transition included in the present research Figure 2. Population size of the Balkan countries Figure 3. Index of population change: 1990 – 2005. Balkan countries in transition; males. 1990 = 100 Figure 4. Index of population change: 1990 – 2005. Balkan countries in transition; females. 1990 = 100 Fig. 5 and 6. Age structure of the population of the Balkan countries by main age groups Figures 7. Percentage of the population aged over 65 Figures 8. Percentage of the population aged under 15 Figure 9. Disposition of the countries by increase of the percentage of the youngest (below 15) and oldest (65+) age groups for the years 1990-2005 for males and females Figure 10. Mean age of female population Figure 11. Mean age of male population Figure 12. Demographic burden – age dependency ratio for 1990, 2000 and 2005 Figure 13. Demographic burden – ageing index for the years 1990, 2000 and 2005 Figure 14. Life expectancy per person, age 0 (female) Figure 15. Life expectancy per person, age 0 (male) Figure 16. Index of life potential change 1990 – 2005 for females; 1990 = 100 Figure 17. Index of life potential change 1990 – 2005 for males; 1990 = 100 Figure 18. Ratio of standardized Life potential based on 1990’ age structure to the real life potential for 2005; females; 1990 = 1 Figure 19. Ratio of standardized Life potential on 1990’ age structure base to the real life potential for 2005; males; 1990 = 1 Figure 20. Disposition of the countries by the index of change the real and the standardized life potential Table 1 Dynamics of population size and age structure – absolute numbers and percentage Table 2. Average life expectancy per person (PARYL) by countries for 1990 - 2005 V. Kovatchev -‐ Sofia, Bulgaria

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p. 3 11 13 14 15 16 17 17 18 18 19 20 21 21 23 24 25 25 26 11 22 1

DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING AND DEMOGRAPHIC POTENTIAL OF THE BALKAN COUNTRIES IN TRANSITION

During the last two decades the South-East European countries live through specific period of their development, labeled as “transition to democracy and market economy”. In this period, which started in the end of 80-ies of 20th century, specific economic, politic, social and other processes took place after falling of the totalitarian regimes. Besides, every country of the region has its own specifics due to historically based cultural, religious, ethnic and other peculiarities of their societies. Among these peculiarities an important place is taken by the specific demographic situation and the demographic processes, which took place in the past and the recent period. In the distant and in the recent history the Balkan Peninsula countries have experienced similar historical influences, and their populations have similar characteristics. Thus the demographic face of this part of Europe is formed. At present most of these countries go through the mentioned transition period while at the same time they preserve some of the traditional features from the past of their development. The development trends show clearly that the Balkan countries need political and economic integration, which can be performed best in the frame of overall-European integration process. The recent demographic development is a result from the past, on one side, but on the other side, it is influenced from the new changes linked to “opening to the world” process, i.e. integration with the European Union. Besides, the demographic development itself – as it has relative autonomy with respect of other fields of the society (economy, policy, etc.) – turns out to be a factor for their progress.

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Figure 1. Schematic map of the Balkan

countries

transition included in the present research (coloured in green, brown and violet).

The present study aims to research the process of demographic ageing and its recent trends, as well as the state and the perspectives of the demographic potential of the population in Balkan countries in the period of social-economic transition. The future of the region depends to a considerable degree on the demography and particularly – on the labour potential of the population of each country and of the entire region The following countries are studied in a comparative perspective: Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania and Serbia (fig. 1). These countries can not complete political and economic transition during all 15-years studied period (1990-2005) and the continuance reflects on the demographic system. EU member states before 2005 are not included, as it could be assumed for them that the transition period is completed earlier. Ex., Greece is member from 1981 and Slovenia – from 2004. Unfortunately, the lack of sufficient comparative data for Bosnia and Herzegovina and for Kosovo could not be studied for the present analyses. Methods Methodology used in the research is based on the so-called method of “potential demography”, and the notion of “life-potential”. (Hersch, (1940), Griva, (1985), Rusev, B. (1993), Haralampiev, K. (2003). Sources of the data are: the United Nations’ yearbooks, and other publications at the national and European levels for annual data of the population and for censuses. Special attention V. Kovatchev -‐ Sofia, Bulgaria

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is given to publication on mortality and health in the statistics of the World Health Organization. Sources of data include also publications from the national statistical institutions of the countries under investigation, UNECE Statistical Division Database and WHO life tables. Calculations and preparation of tables and graphs in the research are based on data from national and international (Eurostat and UNICEF TransMONEE) official sources. Demographic ageing Demographic ageing can be characterized by several indicators. It can also be studies in two different aspects: 1.

as a static state of the population distribution by age;

as a process.

In the first aspect the level of demographic ageing can be measured by the percentage of old people. In the second aspect the process of demographic ageing is characterized by the modification of this same percentage during the time period. In more general frame demographic ageing concerns the distribution by age and not just the percentage of old people. Therefore various indicators of demographic ageing are used in the present study – percentage of young people, the ratio between young and old, etc. In this study the process of demographic aging is characterized also by its speed using additive and multiplicative schemes for defining respectively the average increase per year and the rate of increase of the share of old people, the share of young people and the ratio mentioned before. The methodological base of the potential demography is life tables (in Bulgarian – “tables for death rates”). It is famous that they are the most widespread type of demographic tables (Pressat, 2006). The table describes, by the age scale, the death events in one generation. Based on fictive number of births, which represents the generation at age 0, the table contains the following data for every age x: -Number of lived out the age x – lx; -Number of deaths between two age intervals – ndx; -Annual probability of death at age x – qx. The number of fictive births decreases in every range down. The persons who are lived out the age x outlive certain number of years and are expected to live further definitive number of years. The final column on the table is life expectancy at certain age x – ex. Thus, in the instrument of the traditional demography used for studying the age specific death rates, is parenthetic the idea of life potentials. V. Kovatchev -‐ Sofia, Bulgaria

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The sum of all person-years expected for certain individual to outlive till the end of its life forms it personal life potential. The life expectancy at the certain age (ex) serves for weight. By this way, for analyze of the demographic processes not only the number of population is taken into consideration but its life capabilities also. Thus, the idea for every person and every group of people with own “weight” is implemented by the potential demography. This “weight” loads in the common totality of the population (respectively in its parts) and composes the demographic potential. According to the potential demography the differences between the life potentials of the persons (in different social-professional, educational and other people groups) are linked in a significant degree with differences between reproductive, labour, consuming etc. possibilities (potentials). For example, the reproductive potential of a 20 years old woman is higher than of a 30 years old one, since the life potential in the frame of fertile age interval for the first one is higher than the second one. Even in the same age, these women could have higher reproductive possibilities with higher life potential in the fertile age. Altogether, the principles of the potential demography do not replace the principles of the classical demography. They just enrich them with additional, new ideas for enlargement and thoroughness of analyze. Types of Demographic Potentials The term “life potential” is defined generally as average time, expected to live through in the future for one person or group of persons. Furthermore different criteria exist for classification of the kinds of life potentials. Depending on what concern – life potential till the end of the live or life potential for partial time interval (age or calendar) of the future life, the life potential is classified as total or partial. Concept of demographic potential is used to examine past trends and project future tendencies. The life potential is specific notion in demography, (namely the so called potential demography) which studies the future of the population in terms of its expected longevity, its number and its age structure. The life potential of the population is expressed in person-years that the whole population (or certain fractions of pop.) is expected to live in the future. The total life potential is defined as a sum of time, which all the people of the population have to live through all their further live. The general simplified formula of the life potential of the population is as follows:

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Where LPt – total life potential Sx – number of the population at age x ex – life expectancy of population at age x ω – the last age which people survive The life potential is the sum of products of the number of population in the age groups (Sx) and the respective life expectancies (ex) per person. For each individual age (x) the life potential could be represented by the figures based on the Lexis diagram. An aggregated indicator of the life potential is calculated, the average life potential. This is known as the adjusted version of the average age - the population average remaining years of life (PARYL). It is the weighted average of age-specific remaining life. It indicates the life span that the average person of the whole population (irrespective of the age) is expected to live until the end of live. It is calculated as ratio between the total life potential of the whole population and its number. This indicator may be misleading as far as a major (not explicitly defined) part of its level and its dynamics is due to age structure of the population. Special interest is paid to research further on the so called labor potential which characterizes the labor capacity of the population in terms of the person yeas to be lived in economically active state. It is important to estimate the partial life potential of the Balkan country’s populations, whose social-economic transition period still proceeds at the beginning of 21st century. This potential introduces two aspects of the subject matter: -a longitudinal aspect of life potential of the active population in a fixed time and - a cross-section aspect, that is directed to identify life potential to be experienced by the whole population in the borders of a specific age interval defining the active age. The second case encompasses also the life potential of individuals who have not yet reached their active age (population below active age). -The partial life potential of the population regarding its active-age prospects in cross approach include the pointed potential above (for the age groups from 15-19 to 60-64, respectively 55-59 years old), but subjoined to it the potential of the population under working age, which have to live through the working age. For the reason of lack of reliable data for disability, the health status of the population is included in the data for life expectancy. It is sourced from the life tables of each country, which V. Kovatchev -‐ Sofia, Bulgaria

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are produced by the WHO. A key issue of these life tables is the calculation of healthy life expectancy which is the basic indicator of population health levels used by WHO. Impact of population aging on the dynamics of life potential This impact is by using the method of standardization. This method is based by index analysis – a statistical method applied in the term of index of structure in the composite aggregated values from the type:

Y=Σ xi fi In our case the intensity element (xi) is the life expectancy of the respective age group. The structural factor (fi) is the age structure of the population – the size of each age group. The mechanism of this method used in the present research is to apply a “standard structure” to changing levels of life expectancy (ex) in order to obtain a so called a standardised life potential and thus under the hypothesis that thee age structure has remained constant over time. This standardised LP indicates the hypothetical level of LP in the year of estimation if the age structure would not be changed since the baseline year of observation. Demographic factors for the life potential Natality The process of natality has a direct effect over the labour potential through the number of population in different age groups. The recent birth rates effect over the number in the lower ages defining the number of births, respectively the lowest age group. The birth rates in the past already defined next upper age groups. Mortality The process of mortality has a bilateral effect. This factor is calculated as a coefficient from the number of death events in every age group toward the persons of the group a) Intensity of mortality is shown by the values of average life expectancy. The mortality accumulation of the age groups after a certain exact age (completed age) determine the life expectancy in years expected for the population at this to live through. b) The death rates have an effect over the number and the age structure of the population. The number in the different age groups put up with the negative influence of the mortality. By this way, the number decrease with the intensity as is the age specific mortality rate. Migrations Migrations have an effect over the labour potential directly or indirectly. Their direct impact consists of the changing number of population in the age groups (statistical sign Sx). The impact is realized by two opposite flows – emigration and immigration, each of them with own V. Kovatchev -‐ Sofia, Bulgaria

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volume and structures. Immigrants have a positive effect on the number of population in the age groups they pour into. Conversely, the emigrants “deplete” corresponding age groups and work negatively on the people’s number there. Both flows have a respective life potential and it is transposed with migrant individuals. The result is the balance – not only as volume but also structural – age and gender. Migration impacts indirectly on the labour potential by the life expectancy (as signed ex). Immigrants bring the life expectancy particularities of their countries to new one and the emigrants could change their home countries’ ex by the connections with relatives who depend on them emotionally and in economical aspect. Ageing The ageing process is a characteristic of changing the age structure of the population. Generally, it represents an increasing share of old people in the population and decreasing share of young people. Ageing is direct consequence of demographic transition, especially in natality (with decreasing birth rates), but meantime in mortality also (decreasing age specific death rates in higher age groups). The process seems to be a leading tendency in the demographic development in 21st century. It is progressing rapidly in many developed countries, especially in Europe, but to be clearly outlined in transition countries in East and South-East Europe due to the steep negative trend of birth rates and diminution of the share of population in younger ages. A lot of analyzers and respective organizations such as UN, EU etc. expect continuous similar trends in the next decades. Thus, social-economic consequences will show up with massive impact and pressure on the retirement, social and health security systems in the affected countries. The demographic ageing is influenced by all the three structural factors. Demographic ageing in the Balkan countries in transition is especially intensified during the last decade of 20th and the beginning of 21st century. Although death rates at present are decreasing and the birth rates in turn are falling down more rapidly than in the more developed European countries. The process is complicated by lower life expectancy than the last mentioned countries. The life expectancy is an indicator for mortality in different age groups. Usually, lower life expectancy leads to younger age structure but not in the case if mortality rates are higher in younger and middle age groups comparatively with developed countries. That is the case of Balkan countries in transition. Migration of younger work forces brings into eging an additional effect. Furthermore, specific features in the countries and age groups are as a result of ethnical, religious, gender behavior etc.

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Important indicator for population ageing is the age dependency ratio. It is a proportion between the number of population over the working age and the number at the working age (see fig. 12). The data for Balkan countries collected by 5-year age groups presumes the last group to be for the population at ages 15-64. The ratio can be used to lay down the policies for taxes, pension and health insurances, for generation transfers, behavior researches etc. In 2002 the ratio for Balkan countries is 0.21 and varies from 0.09 for Albania to 0.25 for Greece. Another indicator is the ageing index. It is calculated as a number of elderly people per 100 children at age below 15 years. In 2000 only 5 countries in the world have more elderly peoples than younger (index over 100) and 2 of them are in the Balkan region (countries are Bulgaria, Greece, Germany, Italy and Japan). The average ageing index for the entire Balkans is 80 and it is 17 for Albania, but 113 for Bulgaria and 116 for Greece. Second country in transition goes over the line 100 in the beginning of 21st century – Croatia in 2004 registers index 103 (in 2000 is 98). According to UN’s estimates1 in all developed countries around 2030 the elderly people will be more than the younger and in the mentioned European countries even twice more. Heath status Life potential could be estimated for the entire life till the last reached year for life. Labour potential could be computed for the life in the working age, but these potentials must be suitable for estimating the duration of life in healthy status. This status excludes the disabled people. Considering disability, one take into account only the invalid disability, i.e. incapability for work or the capacity is highly restricted. Social-economic factors The labour potential is a concept in the contemporary conditions that must be related to the economic structure and the quality of labour force – education and qualification. Different sectors have different requirements and they must be observed. Special interest is the leading part of the economy – third sector of the services. Depending on the quality of the labour resources another significant question appears – if the potential have not possibilities for realization in the country – it stimulates migration flows in attempts to realize elsewhere. The education is a factor with multilateral influence on the labour potential because more and more people orientate to graduation and higher education and this way they include later in the labour force. This including in a mature age, however, is more effective, for the reason that it is after acquiring qualification. 1

United nations, Demographic yearbook, 2001, 2006

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The standard of living as a factor for the life and labour potential impacts on the main elements – life expectancy (i.e. healthy life expectancy) and the number and structure of the population being in possession of these potentials. The better standard directly increases the life expectancy and predetermines lower emigration and higher immigration rates. The labour market is simultaneously condition, factor and result of the dynamic, state and the size of the labour potential. Labour and social security legislation Legislation is a formal factor that is necessary for the research. It determines the lower and upper limit age of the working age and describes the rules by gender and category with respect of the exceptions. Besides it determines formal requirements for disability status, levels and categories for the people. The lower age for work is limited in most countries at 16 years old. Because of specific collection of the demographic data, it is grouped by 5-year groups as a standard. Therefore, the present research uses calculations for the under working age as summarized group of 0-14 years old. It is assumed that the deviation is minimal and does not impact significantly on the conclusions. Specific features exist also for the upper limit of the working age. That limit is a socialpolitic and economically determined in different way for each country and also is variable during the years of transition period. Usually it is the retirement age although it is not directly linked with the loss of work capabilities. Having in mind changing legislation and new tendencies in the European Union laws, it is assumed that the most appropriate and close to data of the demographic statistics, age limits of 64 for men and 59 for women are available. In this way the data for age structure is calculated. So, the highest group according to the work capabilities includes completed 60 years old women and 65 years old men.

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RESULTS Figure 2. Population size of the Balkan countries

Source: UNECE Statistical Division Database, compiled from national and international (Eurostat and UNICEF TransMONEE) official sources

The life potential is determined in the major way by the population size of the studies countries. The country with greater population size is Romania – in 1990 has been 23.2 million, even decreased to 2005 – 21.6 million, it is about a half of the total population of the studied region (fig. 2). Bulgaria and Serbia have the same population size – 16 % of the population in the region included in the study. Follow Croatia (9 %), Albania (7 %), Republic of Macedonia (4 %), and Montenegro which is the smallest country of the research – with population size of only 1 % (623 thousand). Although the transition period has had a lot of impact on the demographical development of these countries, the order in their population size remains the same as in 1990. Table 1 Dynamics of population size and age structure – absolute numbers and percentage Country / Year Albania 1990 2000 2005 Bulgaria 1990 2000 2005 Croatia 1990 2000 2005

Total population

Index of change

Males

Females

Males

Females

1 686 041 1 676 885 1 565 314

1 600 501 1 724 313 1 576 746

100,0 99,5 92,8

100,0 107,7 98,5

4 296 886 3 979 292 3 755 469

4 421 403 4 190 880 3 984 431

100,0 92,6 87,4

100,0 94,8 90,1

2 317 010 2 136 796 2 139 358

2 464 126 2 302 780 2 304 035

100,0 92,2 92,3

100,0 93,5 93,5

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Total population Country / Year Males Republic of Macedonia 1991 1 027 352 2000 1 013 855 2005 1 021 772 Montenegro 1990 319 945 2000 325 458 2005 306 839 Romania 1990 11 445 308 2000 10 971 703 2005 10 548 425 Serbia 1991 3 708 627 2000 3 655 777 2005 3 618 040

Index of change Females

Males

Females

1 006 612 1 012 491 1 015 084

100,0 98,7 99,5

100,0 100,6 100,8

324 357 328 816 316 439

100,0 101,7 95,9

100,0 101,4 97,6

11 756 527 11 471 269 11 085 946

100,0 95,9 92,2

100,0 97,6 94,3

3 968 210 3 860 569 3 822 729

100,0 98,6 97,6

100,0 97,3 96,3

Source: UNECE Statistical Division Database, compiled from national and international (Eurostat and UNICEF TransMONEE) official sources

Differences show up when the index of population change between 1990 and 2005 is observed. The decrease of the number of population is between 5 and 10 %. The greatest decrease is in Bulgaria followed by Croatia and Romania. The Western Balkan country however experienced a war in 1990’s and the decrease is stopped in the first years of 21st century. The population in the Republic of Macedonia keeps the same size – only the males are less in number in 2005 than in 1991, but the number of the females has increased. This is the result of higher life expectancy of females. Small decrease of population size is observed in Albania too, in spite of higher fertility and longevity. This country is famous by high rates of emigration.

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Figure 3. Index of population change: 1990 – 2005. Balkan countries in transition; males. 1990 = 100

Note: For Serbia and Republic of Macedonia the data is for 1991, 2005 Source: calculation from UNECE Statistical Division Database, compiled from national and international (Eurostat and UNICEF TransMONEE) official sources

There is an increase of the population in the middle age groups, and especially in the highest age groups which indicates clearly the process of aging. In the young ages the population in all the countries decreases. It keeps almost the same size in the ages between 20 and 40 years. The graphs (fig. 3 and 4) reflect the changing size of different generations. They display the greater size of the baby-boomers after World War II, and the greater generation of their children. The increased longevity places in the countries twice and more people in ages 70-74 then 15 years ago. The population of Albania is an exception with the smoothed line between the generations, due to the specific development in the second half of 20th century.

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Figure 4. Index of population change: 1990 – 2005. Balkan countries in transition; females. 1990 = 100

The modification age structure in all countries during the period 1990 – 2005 also displays a process of the population aging. Namely – there is increase of the population in highest ages (over 65) and decrease of the population in the lowest ages (under 15). The highest shares of old ages for females are observed in Bulgaria and Serbia - over 19 % of women respectively – almost 15 % of men are over 65. The lowest shares are in Albania and Republic of Macedonia – 9 % and 12 % for females and 8 % and 10 % for males. In the most of the age groups the total number of population in bigger countries of the region decreases, but increases in Albania (fastest), Republic of Macedonia and Croatia. In much the same manner is changing the number of working age group people. (Fig. 5 and 6)

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Fig. 5 and 6. Age structure of the population of the Balkan countries by main age groups Figure 5. (males)

Figure 6. (females)

The population under the working age decreases in every country, and increases over working age. Thus the life potential suffer from multilingual impact – in one side shrinking number of young people as well as capable for work have a negative impact on the labour potential itself. V. Kovatchev -‐ Sofia, Bulgaria

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This decrease occurs smaller opportunities for economic development of these countries recently and in future also. The increased number of elderly loads additionally the social security funds by prolonged and more payments and that puts obstacles in investments way for economic development. Separately by sex it can be observed higher shares of old females, who would benefit to these funds as they reach to a quarter of total number of females in Bulgaria, Serbia and Croatia. It is the age dependency ratio and the aging index that are to be analyzed. Data encompass standard 5-year age groups. As a combined indicator of the demographic pressure the ratio of the life potentials in person-years, spent within the working age to the life potentials spent out of these limitations, is to be analyzing for the given countries either. Speed of the population aging is indicated by the increase of the percentage of the youngest (below 15 years old) and the oldest (65 years and over) per one year period. The indexes show that the populations change very rapidly. Albania has a late start of the demographic transition – the fertility is high in the beginning of the transition period providing that decrease of the young peoples. Figures 7. Percentage of the population aged over 65

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Figures 8. Percentage of the population aged under 15

The demographic aging is taking place at higher speed in period 2000-2005, especially in Albania, Bulgaria and Romania. In the first country the pop ulation age structure was young in the beginning of economic transition and that is why the speed is high. Another country with higher speed of demographic ageing – Romania with the similar explanation: the high fertility levels in the past determine this high speed.

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In Croatia the speed of demographic ageing between 1990 and 2005 is low, because the country has entered a period of demographic stabilization of the age structure. A decrease of fertility is the main factor of the modification of the share of he young people (under 15). Figure 9. Disposition of the countries by increase of the percentage of the youngest (below 15) and oldest (65+) age groups for the years 1990-2005 for males and females

Figure 9 shows 3 types of countries: First type is with highest decrease of youngest population combined with heist increase of the oldest – Bulgaria and Romania. Second type is represented by Albania and Republic of Macedonia and it is characterized with high decrease of youngest but lowest increase of the elderly. And the third type is cristian countries from former Yugoslavia – Serbia, Croatia and Montenegro – high increase of oldest but lowest decrease of the youngest. The speed of demographic ageing is characterized by another indicator: the average change in the mean age of population. (Fig. 10 and 11) In most countries an increasing trend is observed, the level in 2005 being highest in Bulgaria, Serbia and Croatia, both for men and women. The lowest (though also increasing) levels are observed in Albania. Figure 10. Mean age of female population

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Source: Author’s calculation from UNECE Statistical Division Database, compiled from national and international (Eurostat and UNICEF TransMONEE) official sources

Figure 11. Mean age of male population

Source: Author’s calculation from UNECE Statistical Division Database, compiled from national and international (Eurostat and UNICEF TransMONEE) official sources

Specific demographic indicators for demographic ageing and demographic burden have been calculated on the basis of the ratios between the three main age groups: 0-14; 15-64, and 65+. These indicators are: 1) Dependency ratio: ratio between the dependant population (below 15 and above 65 years), and the independent (in economically active ages, between 15 and 64 years). Figure 12 shows changing levels in the Balkan countries in transition. The graph displays the ratio separately for men and women because high gender differences are registered. Exception of Albania, all countries have low ration for men and going low in Bulgaria, Republic V. Kovatchev -‐ Sofia, Bulgaria

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of Macedonia and Romania – that means high size of the population in the middle age group. Contrariwise, the ratio for women displays equality of sizes of the independent and dependant groups. Figure 12. Demographic burden – age dependency ratio for 1990, 2000 and 2005.

Source: Author’s calculation from UNECE Statistical Division Database, compiled from national and international (Eurostat and UNICEF TransMONEE) official sources

Ageing index: ratio between old population and young population.

This

indicator

the

most

sensible

one,

characterizing population ageing. According to this indicator demographic ageing is progressing at a fastest speed in Bulgaria, Croatia and Serbia. The speed is high in the other countries also, but the levels in the beginning were lower. Gender differences of mortality influences on the index as follows: In Albania in 1990 for 1 old person correspond 5 persons below 15 (females, for males even 6) decreasing to 3 young ones in 2005. In Macedonia and Montenegro the ratio is less than 1 old to 1 young person for the whole period. (Fig. 13) The aging index could estimate the replacement of the generations – the old generation consists the people who are the most exposed to the probability of death and the young generations are the new people. The highest level of the ratio attained in Bulgaria – indicates that 1.5 old persons correspond to only 1 young (female replacement). For the men the levels of the ratio are lower due to the higher mortality of men in the middle and higher ages. Figure 13. Demographic burden – ageing index for the years 1990, 2000 and 2005. V. Kovatchev -‐ Sofia, Bulgaria

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Source: Author’s calculation from UNECE Statistical Division Database, compiled from national and international (Eurostat and UNICEF TransMONEE) official sources

Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia and Serbia are the countries with specific phenomenon in their demographic development – accumulation of population in the high ages for the female. The second component of the life potential is life expectancy at a certain exact age x (ex).

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Figure 14. Life expectancy per person, age 0 (female)

Source: WHO life tables

This indicator is increasing with exception for Montenegro. However the population in this small mountainous country is characterized by long lives comparatively with the region. The levels of E0 for 2005 vary from 68,4 for Romania and 68,8 in Albania to 71,8 in Croatia for the males and from 73, 2 for Albania to 78,8 years in Croatia for females. Figure 15. Life expectancy per person, age 0 (male)

Source: WHO life tables

The life expectancy by age groups for women has another tendency: it is slightly decreasing in Albania; this country is characterized by younger population. The tendency is not due to the age structure, but rather to cultural customs reasons. They could be connected to the women position in the family and for result – higher death rates in middle ages, important for fertility. The emigration of men is an important factor too. V. Kovatchev -‐ Sofia, Bulgaria

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Life expectancy in the present research derives from life tables that WHO has estimated for each Member State. This is defined as the expected (average) number of years of life left for a person aged x. The average life expectancy generally increases for all the age groups, including these with work capabilities (from the group of 15-19 to 60-64 for men and 55-59 years old for women) during the period 1990-2005 in all the countries with more than two years, with exception of Bulgaria and Romania. Their increase is minimal. The increasing number of years expected to live for every person of these age groups is significant for the life potential. The potential principally increases, but mostly for the live above the working ages, while within the age frameworks of the working age is slightly visible. The situation of the Bulgarian population, however, could be named as distress signal because low life expectancy is considered in every age groups of working age interval and it is provoked from higher age specific death rates not only in elderly peoples but in middles ages also. The average life expectancy per person (or population average remaining years of life (PARYL)) is due more to the age structure and not only the death rates level This indicator is quite complicated, but the author’s opinion is that very significant figures are presented. PARYL decreases in every country and both for males and females. Older age structure has lower PARYL because older people already spend the major part of their life and it is less to come in the future. Decreasing PARYL however clearly shows population ageing.

Table 2. Average life expectancy per person (PARYL) by countries for 1990 - 2005 Country

Year 1990

2000

2005

Increase between 1990 and 2005

F e m a le s Albania

48,6

48,2

46,1

-2,6

Bulgaria

41,8

39,4

38,9

-2,9

Croatia

42,1

41,5

41,0

-1,1

Republic of Macedonia

46,3

44,6

44,1

-2,3

Montenegro

49,6

45,3

45,0

-4,6

Romania

43,8

42,1

41,2

-2,6

Serbia

40,7

38,6

38,4

-2,2

V. Kovatchev -‐ Sofia, Bulgaria

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Country

Year 1990

2000

2005

Increase between 1990 and 2005

M a le s Albania

45,0

43,9

43,2

-1,8

Bulgaria

38,4

36,5

36,0

-2,4

Croatia

38,9

37,5

38,4

-0,5

Republic of Macedonia

43,9

41,6

41,4

-2,5

Montenegro

46,2

43,3

42,4

-3,8

Romania

40,7

38,8

38,0

-2,7

Serbia

39,1

36,5

36,6

-2,5

Finally the life potential has different trends in the age groups. The results are represented at figures 16 and 17. Figure 16. Index of life potential change 1990 – 2005 for females; 1990 = 100

Source: Author’s calculation based on WHO life tables and UNECE Statistical Division Database, compiled from national and international (Eurostat and UNICEF TransMONEE) official sources

V. Kovatchev -‐ Sofia, Bulgaria

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Figure 17. Index of life potential change 1990 – 2005 for males; 1990 = 100

Source: Author’s calculation based on WHO life tables and UNECE Statistical Division Database, compiled from national and international (Eurostat and UNICEF TransMONEE) official sources

Last two figures indicate the unfavourable situation in the countries of the region. The life potential deceases in almost all cases for the most active part of the population – those under 40 years old. After this age the potential increases and it is much more then in 1990 – 1.5 times to twice. This feature should receive special attention. Higher potential in old ages could put in hardship the pension and social security systems in the studies countries. The graph for the life potential of males distinguish Albania and Bulgaria with the comparatively highest index and lowest respectively. In order to determine the impact of population ageing to the dynamics of Life potential (LP) has been calculated the standardized LP for 2005 using as standard the age distribution from 1990 ( for the Republic of Macedonia and Serbia – 1991).

V. Kovatchev -‐ Sofia, Bulgaria

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Figure 18. Ratio of standardized Life potential based on 1990’ age structure to the real life potential for 2005; females; 1990 = 1

Source: Author’s calculations

Figure 19. Ratio of standardized Life potential on 1990’ age structure base to the real life potential for 2005; males; 1990 = 1

Source: Author’s calculations V. Kovatchev -‐ Sofia, Bulgaria

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The ratio between the life potential on 1990’ age structure base to the real one for 2005 is indicating the impact of the ageing. In all the countries this ratio is greater then 1 for the total population and for both sexes – this means that impact of the age structure has been negative for dynamic of the life potential. If the age structure has not been changed then the younger age group to the mean ages – around 40 years would have much more higher potentially living persons (person-years). Typologization of the Balkan countries in transition according to the demographic aging concerning the demographic potential of their population. Every country’s population take its own place on the graph and it is common both for male and female part. With exception of Albanian population which differs male from female part the Balkan countries show clearly significant diversity in the trend and peculiarities of the ageing process. Figure 20. Disposition of the countries by the index of change the real and the standardized life potential

Figure 20 displays the disposition of the countries by the index of change the real and the standardized life potential. While the real LP deceases during the period 1990 – 2005, the standardized increases. The last is based on the age structure of 1990 and the increase is due to the higher longevity. The most changed age structure is Bulgarian and thus is placed at the lower right corner on the graph. The opposite diagonally are the points for males and females of the V. Kovatchev -‐ Sofia, Bulgaria

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Republic of Macedonia. As it is mentioned above its population structure is the most similar in 2005 then in 1990. Two main groups of countries make appearance – first is leading by Bulgaria and include Romania and Croatia, with high increase of standardized and a great decrease of the real LP of the population. The other group is leaded By Republic of Macedonia – lower increase of the standardized and small decease of the real LP. It could be assumed that these countries experience stable populations for example – Serbia and Montenegro. Special case is Albanian population – it is divided by sex and the male part belongs to the first group. The ageing of men is due to the increasing life expectancy and emigration in young active ages. The female population comes into second group because of luck of similar fast process of ageing – the life expectancy remains still low and the mobility too. FINAL CONCLUSIONS 

The age structure of Romania, Serbia and Croatia becomes too much unfavourable

regarding life potential of the population. Especially this is the case of Bulgaria. The trends outstrip the increasing life expectancy and resultant is the increase of the life potential only in older age groups, respectively the total life potential decrease. 

Three types on ageing and dynamics of the life potential could be

distinguished for the seven countries included in the present research: -1. High levels of continued ageing along with high speed of the process mark the population and life potential dynamics of Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia -2. the process of ageing is begun in the beginning of the transition period but recently stable population trends are observed in Serbia and Montenegro -3. New ageing process started in Republic of Macedonia and Albania from 21st century and their population is still characterized as young, with stable trends of increasing the real life potential 

Female population is characterized by higher life potential then male, but not in

much the same manner is labour potential, because the total potential includes more and more the share of the over working age. 

The share of the life potential of the youngest people is accompanied by strong fall

down, and it is very significant for the time forthcoming to live through the working age. 

Bulgaria is the unique country of the region with observed strong fall down as the

total life potential as well as the “working” life potential (adequate to labour)

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Anuarul statistic 2001, 2006, Institutul Naţional de Statisticâ, România Anuarul demographic al României, 2006, Institutul Naţional de Statisticâ, România Demographic yearbook, UN, 2001, 2006; Eurostat yearbook, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europe.eu/portal Godisnjak 2006.god, Zavod za statistiku Crne Gore, Podgorica Griva, H. (1985), Life potential of the population in P.R. of Bulgaria in periods 1956-57 and 1974-76, Population, book 2, Sofia, Bulgaria 7. Haralampiev, K. (2003), Labour potential of the population of Bulgaria, Sofia 8. Hersch, L., 1940, De quelques potentiels – vie et de certaines variétés de la vie moyenne, Révue de l’Institut international de statistique, 8e année, La Haye 9. Kovatchev, V., 2003, Demographic aspects of the population in the Mountainous NorthWest Border region with Serbia, Rural Tourism and sustainable development of the Balkans, Drugi forum, Economic University, Kraguyevac, Serbia 10. Kovatchev, V., 2004, The demographic situation in the new declared towns in Bulgaria, Warsaw Regional Forum: Central and Eastern Europe: Changing spatial patterns of human activity, Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, Warsaw, Poland 11. Kovatchev, V., 2006, Ageing of Balkan region populations compared to the neighbour regions, Ageing of population – reality and consequences, policies and practice, Sofia 12. Population, 2001 , 2006 , National statistics institute, Sofia, Bulgaria 13. Popullsia Sipas Seksit Dhe Grupmoshave, 2001 – 2005, Albanian Institute of Statistics, 14. Pressat, R. (2006) Dictionary of demography, Avalon, Sofia 15. Recent demographic developments in Europe, 2003, 2004, Council of Europe 16. Rusev, B. (1983), Impact of mortality on the live loses in the working age, Statistics, No. 2 17. Rusev, B. (1993), Life potential of the population in Bulgaria, UNWE, Sofia 18. Sugarev, Z. (1975), Demographic statistics, Nauka i izkustvo, Sofia 19. Sugareva, M. (2004) Introduction to demography, Avalon, Sofia 20. Sugareva, M. (2001), Ageing of population in the world, Population, no. 2, Sofia 21. Statisticki ljetopis, 1992, 2001, 2006, Hrvatski zavod za statistiku, Zagreb 22. Statistički godišnjak Srbije, 2006 Republički zavod za statistiku Srbije, Beograd 23. UNECE Statistical Division Database, compiled from national and international (Eurostat and UNICEF TransMONEE) official sources, 2008 24. WHO – life tables for member countries, 2007

V. Kovatchev -‐ Sofia, Bulgaria

Erste stiftung Social Research Fellowship 2009