RatingMonitor
4
Economic Risk
5
Industry Risk
5
Economic Resilience
High Risk
Institutional Framework
High Risk
Economic Imbalances
Low Risk
Competitive Dynamics
High Risk
Credit Risk In The Economy
High Risk
Systemwide Funding
Low Risk
BICRA Trinidad and Tobago - System-wide Funding (%)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013F
19
Table 1: One-, Two-, and Three-Year Cumulative Defaults Rates, between 2002 and 2012
Rating
Issuer-years*
One-Year
Two-Year
Three-Year
CRISIL AAA
768
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
CRISIL AA
1335
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
CRISIL A
1505
0.20%
1.23%
2.47%
CRISIL BBB
3821
1.39%
3.05%
6.07%
CRISIL BB
4579
4.32%
9.26%
14.16%
CRISIL B
3072
9.34%
18.26%
23.17%
CRISIL C
258
13.18%
19.69%
29.14%
Total
15338
Table 2 - One-year average transition rates: between 2002 and 2012
Rating
Issueryears
CRISIL AAA
CRISIL AA
CRISIL A
CRISIL BBB
CRISIL BB
CRISIL B
CRISIL C
CRISIL D
CRISIL AAA
768
97.92%
2.08%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
CRISIL AA
1335
1.35%
94.98%
2.77%
0.90%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
CRISIL A
1505
0.00%
3.32%
91.03%
4.85%
0.47%
0.07%
0.07%
0.20%
CRISIL BBB
3821
0.00%
0.00%
2.88%
88.83%
6.10%
0.42%
0.39%
1.39%
CRISIL BB
4579
0.00%
0.00%
0.02%
3.69%
88.27%
3.23%
0.46%
4.32%
CRISIL B
3072
0.00%
0.00%
0.03%
0.07%
7.10%
82.72%
0.75%
9.34%
CRISIL C
258
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.39%
2.71%
24.81%
58.92%
13.18%
Total
15338
24
INSTRUMENT RATED USD 5 million Debt Issue
(Notional)
RATING CariBBB
(Foreign Currency)
RATING HISTORY Date
Foreign Currency
Local Currency
Instrument/Remarks
June 2014
CariBBB
CariBBB+
USD 5 million Debt Issue (Notional)
May 2013
CariBBB
CariBBB+
USD 5 million Debt Issue (Notional)
May 2012
CariBBB
CariBBB+
USD 5 million Debt Issue (Notional)
June 2011
CariBBB
CariBBB+
USD 5 million Debt Issue (Notional)
March 2010*
CariBBB
CariBBB+
USD 5 million Debt Issue (Notional)
25
26
27
28
30
INSTRUMENT RATED
RATING
EC $404.5 million (mn.)
CariBBB (Foreign Currency)
EC $140 mn.
CariBBB (Foreign Currency)
US $50 mn.
CariBBB (Foreign Currency)
US $38 mn.
CariBBB (Foreign Currency)
Date
Foreign Currency
Local Currency
Instrument/Remarks
June 9, 2014
CariBBB
CariBBB
EC $404.5 mn., EC $140 mn., US $50 mn., US $38 mn.
May 27, 2013
CariBBB
CariBBB
EC $140 mn., US $50 mn., US $38 mn.
September 28, 2012
CariBBB+
CariBBB+
EC $140 mn., US $50 mn., US $38 mn.
March 29, 2012
CariBBB+
CariBBB+
US $50 mn., US $38 mn.
March 28, 2011
CariBBB+
CariBBB+
US $38 mn.
March 31, 2010
CariBBB+
CariBBB+
US $38 mn.
March 26, 2009
CariBBB+
CariBBB+
US $38 mn.
December 2, 2008
CariBBB+
CariBBB+
US $38 mn.
December 21, 2007 *
CariBBB+
CariBBB+
US $38 mn.
31
32
33
34
 
FY2009/10 Total Revenue Current Revenue Current Expenditure Capital Expenditure Total Expenditure Total Revenue Current Revenue Total Current Expenditure Capital Expenditure Total Expenditure Source: Ministry of Finance, Saint Lucia r:
Revised
p:
Preliminary
FY2010/11
826.8 759.6 683.8 241.3 925.1
874.5 787.8 742.7 298.6 1,041.3
-0.3 -5.6 5.4 15.9 8.0
5.8 3.7 8.6 23.7 12.6
r
FY2011/12
r
EC $ million 915.1 836 776.6 366.1 1,142.8 % Change 4.6 6.1 4.6 22.6 9.7
FY2012/13
r
FY2013/14
873.5 809.9 857.5 344.8 1,202.3
941 864.1 868.9 292.1 1,161
-4.5 -3.1 10.4 -5.8 5.2
7.7 6.7 1.3 -15.3 -3.4
p
35
36
Income & Economic Structure Nominal GDP (US $ Mn) Nominal GDP per capita (US $) Real GDP Growth (%) Unemployment Rate (%) Human Development Index Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index
Fiscal Accounts (% of GDP)
Central Gov’t Current Revenue Central Gov’t Current Expenditure Central Gov’t Current Balance Central Gov’t Capital Expenditure Central Gov’t Primary Balance (after grants) Central Gov’t Overall Balance (after grants) Central Gov’t Gross Debt General Gov’t Gross Debt
Monetary, Financial & Exchange Rate Indicators Consumer Price Index (end of period) Consumer Price Index (annual average) Credit to the Private Sector & NFPE (% GDP) Credit to the Private Sector & NFPE (YOY change %) Non-Performing Loans/Total Loans (%) Provision for NPL (% of NPL) Banking Sector Capital Adequacy Ratio (%) Base Money (YOY change) Broad Money or Money Supply (YOY change %) Average Bank Deposit Rate (%) Average Bank Lending Rate (%) Interest Rate Spread Nominal Exchange Rates (lc per US$) Real Effective Exchange Rates (YOY change %)
External Sector Indicators Current Account Balance (% GDP) Capital & Financial Account Balance (% GDP) Overall External Balance (% GDP) External Public Debt (% GDP) Gross International Reserves (US$ Mn) Net International Reserves (US$ Mn) Gross International Reserves (in months of imports) Total Debt Service (% of exports of GNFS) Gross Financing Requirements / Reserves (%)
2013 1,336 7,900.2 (2.3) 23.3 88/186 22/177
2013
2012 1,300.7 7,771.3 (1.3) 21.4 88/187 22/176
2012
24.1 24.2 (0.1) 8.1 (2.3) (6.1) 69.1 73.6
2013 (0.7) 1.5 115.2 (1.1) 20.6 42.5 n.a. (8.5) 2 2.8 8.4 5.6 2.7 (0.7)
2013 (10.9) 6.7 (4.2) 36.4 376.1 128.9 6.6 na 39.8
2011
2012 5 4.2 117.7 4.2 15.3 37.9 19.2 14.1 2.5 2.9 8.5 5.6 2.7 1.9
2012 (16.6) 15 (1.6) 33.2 385 132 6.1 na 54.2
2009
1,284.8 7,676.7 1.3 21.2 82/187
1,244.1 7,513.2 (0.2) 20.6 -
25/183
-
2011 22.6 23.9 (1.3) 9.6 (5.7) (9.2) 67.4 72.1
2010
24 22.3 1.7 10.5 (3.5) (6.5) 60 65.5
2011 4.8 2.8 114.9 2.4 13.2 36.2 19 1.5 6.7 3.1 9 6 2.7 (2.8)
2011 (18.9) 19 0.1 32.4 307.5 66.4 4.5 11.6 87.6
2010
1,178.8 7,155.9 (0.2) 18.1 69/182 22/180
2009
23.3 21.9 1.3 8.8 (1.9) (4.9) 54.5 60.6
2010
23.5 21.3 2.3 7.5 (0.4) (3.1) 51.5 57.5
2009
4.2 3.3 121.3 1.2 12.4 23.2 18.6 9.8 1.9 3.3 9.5 6.2 2.7 (0.4)
2010
(3.4) (1.7) 130 2.2 7.9 31.4 18.3 10.2 1.3 3.1 9.7 6.6 2.7 3.8
2009
(16.3) 17 0.7 31.7 307 97.5 4.7 10.7 81.5
(11.6) 15.7 4.1 31.7 283 (8.9) 5.2 12.4 58.2
37
38
TYPE OF RATING Corporate Credit Rating
RATING ASSIGNED Foreign Currency
Local Currency
CariBBB-
CariBBB-
National Scale ttBBB-
7.0 6.0 5.0 %
4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
2009
2010 RHAND
2011
2012
Commercial banks
2013
39
40  
Footnotes 2010 was severely impacted by TT $11.6 mil-
2
lion in write-offs of accrued interest on Colonial Life Insurance Company Limited (CLICO) and British American Insurance Company (Trinidad) Limited (BAICO) investments.
64 62 60 58 %
56 54 52 50 48 46
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
41
42  
14.0 12.0 10.0 %
8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0
2009
2010
Institutional Capital Ratio
2011
2012
2013
PEARLS minimum
160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 TT $ 80.0 million 60.0 Footnotes PEARLS is a financial performance monitoring
40.0
3
system designed to offer management guidance for credit unions. In partnership with credit unions, the World Council of Credit Unions created PEARLS in the late 1980s.. However, in keeping with the existing legisla-
4
tion, the credit union does have the supervisory, investment, education and credit committees, as required by statute.
20.0 0.0
Copos
COK
RHAND Venture
TECU
COB
ECU
 
Credit Union Telephone Workers' Credit Union Venture Credit Union Teachers Credit Union Police Service Credit Union TECU RHAND Credit Union Eastern Credit Union
Asset Base TT $ 516,000,000 723,792,163 588,986,215 496,583,263 1,531,551,083 495,278,590 1,505,679,601
No. of Members 5,000 13,000 13,000 11,000 35,736 20,000 160,000
Assets per Member 103,200 55,676 45,307 45,144 42,857 24,764 9,410
43
44
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
TT$ ‘000 Member Shares Tangible Net Worth (TNW)*
304,344 50,682
276,143 258,427
242,970
229,266
43,074
33,395
40,769
445,047 417,273
394,542
395,787
47,246
Total Assets*
481,994
Total Income
36,144
33,889
30,176
28,424
29,552
Total Operating Expenses (incl.Depreciation)
20,828
20,509
18,831
16,210
15,465
Net Surplus
11,473
10,420
10,579
108
13,986
% Interest Expense/Average Interest Bearing Liabilities
0.5
0.5
0.6
1.5
2
Interest Rate Spreads
8.1
8.3
7.8
7.5
8.2
11.1
11.5
11.5
11.6
11.6
PAT/Average Earning Assets
2.7
2.7
2.9
0
4.1
Group Profit/Average TNW
3
2.9
3.2
0
4.6
Total Expenses/Total Income
57.6
60.5
62.4
57
52.3
Tangible Net Worth/Adjusted Assets
10.5
10.6
10.3
8.5
10.3
Loan Loss Reserves/NPL
29.5
29.5
14.7
35.9
17.8
Gross NPLs/Gross Loans
2
2.2
2.2
2.3
3
Interest Income on Loans/Average Total Loans
Source: RHAND Credit Union Co-operative Society Limited
45
CariCRIS Rating Monitor
Entity
Issue
Ratings
1
Goddard’s Enterprises Limited
USD 16 Million Debt Issue (Notional)
CariAA- (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariAA- (Regional Scale Local Currency) bbAA (Barbados National Scale)
2
The National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago
USD 400 Million Bond Issue
CariAAA (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariAAA (Regional Scale Local Currency) ttAAA (Trinidad & Tobago National Scale) S&P: A-/Stable (foreign & Local Currency) Moody’s: Baa1/Stable (Senior Unsecured Foreign Currency)
3
Phoenix Park Gas Processors Limited
USD 185 Million Debt Issue
CariAAA (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariAAA (Regional Scale Local Currency) ttAAA (Trinidad & Tobago National Scale) S&P: A-/Stable (Foreign Currency) Moody’s: Baa1/Stable (Senior Unsecured Foreign Currency)
4
Republic Bank Limited
TTD 1 Billion Debt Issue
CariAA+ (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariAA+ (Regional Scale Local Currency) ttAA+ (Trinidad & Tobago National Scale) S&P: BBB+/Stable (Foreign Currency & Local Currency)
5
St. Lucia Electricity Services Limited
USD 15 Million Debt Issue (Notional)
CariBBB (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariBBB (Regional Scale Local Currency)
6
Government of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago
USD 500 Million Debt Issue (Notional)
CariAAA (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariAAA (Regional Scale Local Currency) ttAAA (Trinidad & Tobago National Scale) S&P: A/Stable (Foreign Currency) A/Stable (Local Currency) Moody’s: Baa1/Stable (LT Issuer Rating)
7
Government of Barbados
USD 300 Million Debt Issue (Notional)
CariA- (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariA (Regional Scale Local Currency) S&P: BB-/Negative (Foreign Currency) BB-/Negative (Local Currency) Moody’s: B3/Negative (LT Issuer Rating)
8
Sagicor Investments Jamaica Ltd (formerly Pan Caribbean Financial Services Ltd)
USD 25 Million Debt Issue (Notional)
CariBBB- (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariBBB (Regional Scale Local Currency) jmA+ (Jamaica National Scale)
9
Government of Anguilla
USD 25 Million Debt Issue (Notional)
CariBBB+ (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariBBB+ (Regional Scale Local Currency)
Entity
Issue
Ratings
10
Eastern Caribbean Home Mortgage Bank
USD 30 Million Debt Issue (Notional)
CariA (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariA (Regional Scale Local Currency)
11
Sagicor Life (Jamaica) Limited
USD 75 Million Debt Issue (Notional)
jmAAA (Jamaica National Scale) AM Best: Financial Strength Rating, B+/Stable (Good); Issuer Credit Rating, bbb-/ Stable
12
National Commercial Bank Jamaica Limited
USD 75 Million Debt Issue (Notional)
CariBBB (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariBBB+ (Regional Scale Local Currency) jmAA- (Jamaica National Scale) S&P: B-/Stable (Foreign &Local Currency) Fitch: B-/Stable (Foreign & Local Currency)
13
NCB Capital Markets Limited
USD 25 Million Debt Issue (Notional)
CariBBB- (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariBBB (Regional Scale Local Currency) jmA+ (Jamaica National Scale)
14
Government of Saint Lucia
USD 38 Million Debt Issue USD 50 million Debt Issue XCD 140 million Debt Issue XCD 404.5 million Debt Programm
CariBBB (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariBBB (Regional Scale Local Currency)
15
TOSL Engineering Limited
USD 10 Million Debt Issue (Notional)
CariA+ (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariA+ (Regional Scale Local Currency)
16
Dominica Agricultural, Industrial & Development Bank
USD 10 Million Debt Issue (Notional)
CariBBB- (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariBBB- (Regional Scale Local Currency)
17
Development Bank of Jamaica Limited
USD 5 Million Debt Issue (Notional)
CariBBB (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariBBB+ (Regional Scale Local Currency) jmAA- (Jamaica National Scale)
18
Government of the Commonwealth of Dominica
USD 25 Million Debt Issue (Notional)
CariBBB- (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariBBB- (Regional Scale Local Currency)
19
Trinidad and Tobago Mortgage Finance Company Limited
Issuer rating
CariAA- (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariAA- (Regional Scale Local Currency)
20
Millennium Investments Limited (The Crane Residential Resorts)
Up to USD 40 million Preference Shares
CariBBB+ (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariA- (Regional Scale Local Currency) bbAA- (Barbados National Scale)
50
Entity
Issue
Ratings
21
Gulf City Limited
TTD 620 million Debt Issue
CariA (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariA (Regional Scale Local Currency) ttA (Trinidad and Tobago National Scale)
22
Bourse Securities Limited
Corporate Credit Rating
CariA- (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariA- (Regional Scale Local Currency) ttA- (Trinidad and Tobago National Scale) On Rating Watch – Developing
23
Eastern Credit Union Co-operative Society Limited
Corporate Credit Rating
CariBBB- (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariBBB- (Regional Scale Local Currency) ttBBB- (Trinidad and Tobago National Scale)
24
RHAND Credit Union Co-operative Society Limited
Corporate Credit Rating
CariBBB- (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariBBB- (Regional Scale Local Currency) ttBBB- (Trinidad and Tobago National Scale)
25
Excellent Stores Limited
Issuer Rating/Corporate Credit Rating
CariBBB- (Regional Scale foreign Currency) CariBBB- (Regional Scale Local Currency) ttBBB- (Trinidad and Tobago National Scale)
26
Beacon Insurance Limited
Issuer Rating/Corporate Credit Rating
CariBBB+ (Regional Scale foreign Currency) CariBBB+ (Regional Scale Local Currency) ttBBB+ (Trinidad and Tobago National Scale)