RatingMonitor
CariCRIS R ating Monitor 2
CariCRIS Rating Monitor
CariCRIS Rating Monitor
Features
News from CariCRIS
CariCRIS Rating Rationale Summaries
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CariCRIS Rating Monitor
Month
Workshop
Location
Oct 2012
Intensive Credit Risk Analysis Workshop (2 days)
Suriname
Nov 2012
Credit Risk Analysis of Insurance Companies & Securities
Trinidad
Companies (1 day) Feb 2013
Financial Ratio Analysis Workshop (2 days)
St. Kitts
Mar 2013
Fundamentals of Financial Risk Management (1 day)
Barbados and Jamaica   www.caricris .com
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Overview •
• •
We believe the Caribbean sovereigns and some crises-stricken European nations share various vulnerabilities, such as a large government debt overhang, inflexible exchange rate regimes, fiscal imbalances, persistently large external current account deficits, and structural weaknesses. The comparison of two monetary unions–-EMU and ECCU-–is particularly interesting as we see that both unions share a number of similar structural inefficiencies and policy constraints. Analysis of how various Caribbean and European sovereigns respond to the adverse shocks presents an opportunity to learn about different policy choices, successes and failures. Drawing on European countries’ experiences could help Caribbean region to minimize its future vulnerabilities.
CariCRIS Rating Monitor
Chart 1 Average Real GDP Growth (2009-2011)
Iceland
Latvia
Greece
Ireland
Portugal
Trinidad & Tobago
Grenada
Belize
Barbados
The Bahamas
Aruba
3 2 1 0 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Jamaica
(%)
©Standard & Poor’s 2012.
Table 1
Foreign Currency Rating: European and Caribbean Peers 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 through May
Number of notches down from FC ratings in 2008
Aruba
A-
A-
A-
A-
A-
0
Bahamas
A-
BBB+
BBB+
BBB
BBB
2
Barbados
BBB+
BBB
BBB-
BBB-
BBB-
2
Belize
B
B
B
B-
CCC-
4
Jamaica
B
CCC
B-
B-
B-
SD in 2010
Grenada
B-
B-
B-
B-
B-
0 www.caricris .com
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Table 1
Foreign Currency Rating: European and Caribbean Peers (cont.) 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 through May
Number of notches down from FC ratings in 2008
Trindad & Tobago
A
A
A
A
A
0
Cyrpus
A+
A+
A
BBB
BB+
6
Estonia
A
A-
A
AA-
AA-
(2)
Iceland
BBB-
BBB-
BBB-
BBB-
BBB-
0
Latvia
BBB-
BB
BB+
BB+
BBB-
0
Lithuania
BBB+
BBB
BBB
BBB
BBB
1
Portugal
AA-
A+
A-
BBB-
BB
6
Ireland
AAA
AA
A
BBB+
BBB+
7
Greece
A
BBB+
BB+
CC
CCC
SD in 2012
Ratings reflect end of year rating for each sovereign. See Standard & Poor’s Sovereign Rating & Country T&C Assessment Histories, Rating Direct May 8, 2012 (FC rating updated up to May 19, 2012.)
Chart 2
Labor Unit Cost In Eurpose (Base Year 1999=100) Portugal
Ireland
Greece
Germany
Source: OECD Countries
©Standard & Poor’s 2012.
CariCRIS Rating Monitor
©Standard & Poor’s 2012.
Table 2
Total Factor Productivity And Contribution To GDP Growth For The Median Caribbean Country From 1971 To 2007 Contribution to GDP Growth (%) GDP Growth
Physical Capital
Labor
TFP
1971 - 1980
5
1.9
0.4
2.7
1981 - 1990
5.1
1.4
2.3
1.3
1991 - 2000
3.2
0.8
1.6
0.9
2001 - 2007
3.5
1.9
1.2
0.5
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Chart 3
General Government Debt Increase In Percentage Of GDP In Four Years Prior To Crisis (%)
Note: Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Lativia, Cyprus, and Iceland debt increases taken from 2007-2011, Jamaica from 2006-2010, Belize from 2002-2006, Grenada from 2000-2004.
©Standard & Poor’s 2012.
Chart 4
Net General Government Debt, 2011
©Standard & Poor’s 2012.
CariCRIS Rating Monitor
Iceland
Latvia
Greece
Ireland
Portugal
Trinidad & Tobago
Grenada
Jamaica
Belize
Barbados
The Bahamas
Aruba
(%) of GDP
Chart 5
External Financing Needs, 2011 (%) of CAR and usable reserves)
©Standard & Poor’s 2012.
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CariCRIS Rating Monitor
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CariCRIS Rating Monitor
SME Performance Grading Chart GRADE
DEFINITION
SME 1
Relationship diagram for SME Performance Grading Categories
Industry Risk
DESCRIPTION
Excellent
Displays excellent business and financial performance and has excellent prospects for sustaining this performance
SME 2+
Strong
Displays better than average performance with reasonable prospects for improving its performance
SME 2-
Strong
Displays better than average performance with reasonable prospects for maintaining its performance
SME 3+
Average
Displays average performance with reasonable prospects for improving its performance
SME 3-
Average
Displays average performance with reasonable prospects for maintaining its performance
SME 4
Below Average
SME 5
Weak/ Vulnerable
Displays less than average business and financial performance and has below average prospects for improving or even sustaining its performance Displays weak performance and is highly vulnerable with low prospects for maintaining viability
Management Risk
Business Risk
FINAL PERFORMANCE GRADING
Market Position Operating Efficiency
Financial Risk
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CariA CariAAA CariA (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA CariACariAAA (+/-) / P1+ C CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / CariP1 P2+ CariP3 CariAAA CariA (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA CariACariAAA (+/-) CariA CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / CariP1 P2+ CariP3 / P1+ C (1) A regional scale comparison is more useful and relevant particularly where CariAAA CariA (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA CariACariAAA (+/-) the/ region's economies tend /toP3+ be similar economic, and/ P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariP3CariA CariP1 P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariP3 CariP4 /inP4+ CariP5 /political P5+ CariP1 CariP1 / P1+ C demographic Cari CariAAA CariA (+/-)structure. CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA CariA (+/-) CariAAA CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / Cari P2+ CariP3CariA (2) ACariA regional is able include(+/-) far more locally and regionally contextual CariAAA (+/-)rating CariBBB (+/-)to CariBB CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA CariACariP1 (+/-) / P1+ C issues can /aP2+ global scale/ P3+ rating. CariP1 / P1+than CariP2 CariP3 CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / CariAAA P2+ CariP3CariA CariAAA CariA (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA CariACariP1 (+/-) / P1+ C CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariP3CariA (3) By focusing on the Caribbean alone, CariCRIS ratings enhance the quality CariAAA Cari CariAAA CariA (+/-) CariBBB (+/-)across CariBBlocal (+/-)and CariB(+/-) CariD CariAAA CariA (+/-) and extent of differentiation regionalCariC(+/-) credits providing the most CariP1 / P1+ C CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 P2+ CariP3 relevant and comprehensive information about regional credits to all investors / Cari CariAAA CariA CariAAA CariA (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA CariA (+/-) CariBBB (+ regional and global. CariP1 / P1+ C CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariAAA CariA (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA CariACariAAA (+/-) CariBBB (+ CariA Cari CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariCRIS Rating Monitor
Why a Regional Credit Rating Agency?
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Caribbean Sovereign Credit Ratings Table
CariCRIS
S&P
Moody’s
Anguilla
CariA- (FC & LC)
-
-
Bahamas
-
BBB/Stable (FC & LC)
A3/Negative (FC & LC)
Barbados
CariAA- (FC) CariAA (LC)
BB+/Stable (FC & LC)
Baa3/Negative (FC & LC)
Belize
-
SD (FC) CCC+/Stable/C (LC)
Ca/Negative (FC) Caa3/Negative (LC)
Grenada
-
B-/Stable (FC & LC)
-
Jamaica
-
B-/Stable (FC & LC)
B3/Stable (FC & LC)
Montserrat
-
BBB-/Stable (FC & LC)
-
Saint Lucia
CariBBB+ (FC & LC)
-
-
-
-
B1/Stable (FC & LC)
CariAAA (FC & LC)
A/Stable (FC & LC)
Baa1/Stable (FC & LC)
Saint Vincent & the Grendadines Trinidad & Tobago
CariCRIS Rating Monitor
CariAAA CariA CariP1 / P1+ Ca CariAAA CariA CariP1 / P1+ Ca CariAAA CariA CariP1 / P1+ Ca Cari CariAAA CariA CariP1 / P1+ Ca CariAAA CariA CariP1 / P1+ Ca CariAAA CariA CariP1 / P1+ Ca Cari CariAAA CariA CariP1 / P1+ Ca CariAAA CariA CariP1 / P1+ Ca CariAAA CariA Cari CariP1 / P1+ Ca CariAAA CariA CariP1 / P1+ Ca CariAAA CariA CariP1 / P1+ Ca CariAAA CariA Cari CariP1 / P1+ Ca CariP4 CariAAA CariA CariP1 / P1+ Ca CariP4 CariAAA CariA Cari CariP1 / P1+ Ca CariP4 CariAAA CariA CariP1 / P1+ Ca CariP4 CariAAA CariA Cari CariP1 / P1+ Ca CariP4 CariAAA CariA CariP1 / P1+ Ca CariP4 CariAAA CariBBB (+/-) Cari CariP1 / P1+ Ca CariP4 CariAAA CariA CariP1 / P1+ Ca
(+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA Ca ariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA Ca 21 ariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA Ca ariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA Ca ariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA Ca ariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA Ca ariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA Ca ariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA Ca ariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA Ca ariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA Ca ariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA Ca ariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA Ca loan or/ line credit /from ariP2 / + P2+ACariP3 P3+ofCariP4 P4+a financial CariP5 /institution P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2
Are you a Micro, Small or Medium Enterprise, seeking....
+ Credit from an international supplier (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) (+/-) + To bid for CariBB a project, or CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA Ca ariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 + To improve your business operations for greater efficency profitability (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) and CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA Ca
ariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+
CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2
Contact CariCRIS now to arrange (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA Ca ariP2 / a P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ business. CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 SME Rating for your
(+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA Ca CariCRIS’ SME Ratings are: ariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2
+ Very affordable (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) by a comprehensive report on CariC(+/-) your companyCariD CariAAA Ca + Accompanied ariP2 / +P2+Excellent CariP3value / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 for your money A CariA+(+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariA Completed within 3 weeks
ariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+
CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2
Call or email us to find out more about our SME ratings. (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA Ca Tel: (868)627 8879, Fax: (868)625 8871, Email: info@caricris.com www.caricris .com ariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2
22 Analytical Contacts: Arjoon Harripaul • Tel: 1-868-627-8879 • E-mail: aharripaul@caricris.com Andre Joseph • Tel: 1-868-627-8879 • E-mail: ajoseph@caricris.com.
USD 5 million Debt Issue
CariBBB
(Regional Scale Foreign Currency)
(Notional)
CariBBB+
(Regional Scale Local Currency)
July 2012
jmAA-
(Jamaica National Scale)
CariCRIS Rating Monitor
Loan Profile by Industry as at March 2012 32.7% 25.6%
27.8% 0.9%
Tourism
Agriculture
Services / Distribution & Transportation
Manufacturing
13.1%
Quarry / Mining
!
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CariCRIS Rating Monitor
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F Y2011/12*
F Y2010/11
F Y2009/10
F Y2008/09
F Y2007/08
J$ Million Equity Capital Tangible Net Worth^ Total Assets^ Total Revenue Profit After Tax
1,758 9,966 21,956 1,675 692
1,758 9,531 48,481 1,524 724
1,758 9,088 49,239 1,183 316
30 8,796 46,288 1,401 417
30 5,854 45,757 1,587 327
1.1 41.0 2.1 1.0 19.0 40.8 17.1
1.4 29.9 29.9 1.0 12.8 23.1 15.2
4.2
6.2
% Interest Rate Spread Total Expenses/ Total Revenue Net Interest Income/ Average Earning Assets Profit After Tax/ Average Earning Assets Tangible Net Worth/ Adjusted Assets Capital Adequacy Non-Performing Loan/ Total Loans
1.2 33.9 2.2 2.1 45.4 35.5 3.4
0.8 34.6 1.8 1.6 19.7 37.8 4.2
0.8 35.3 1.8 0.7 18.5 35.2 3.1
Times Debt/ Tangible Net Worth
1.2
4.0
4.4
Source: DBJ Annual Reports * Financial Year runs from April 1 to March 31 ^ Tangible Net Worth and Total Assets excludes revaluation reserves, intangibles and the Credit Enhancement Fund
CariCRIS Rating Monitor
Analytical Contacts: Arjoon Harripaul • Tel: 1-868-627-8879 • E-mail: aharripaul@caricris.com Sherry Ann Persad • Tel: 1-868-627-8879 • E-mail: spersad@caricris.com
USD 10 million Debt Issue
CariBBB-
(Regional Scale Foreign Currency)
July 5, 2012
CariBBB-
(Regional Scale Local Currency)
www.caricris .com
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CariCRIS Rating Monitor
Chart 1 Loan Portfolio by Industry for FY2011
24.6%
19.8%
23.5%
23.5% 0.1%
4.5%
4.0%
Education
Mortagage
Tourism
Industrial
Agricultural
Other Consumers
Distribution and Commerce
Source: DAID Bank
www.caricris .com
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CariCRIS Rating Monitor
Chart 2 Non-Performing Loan and Loan Loss Provisions 40 35
% of Gross Loans
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Jun-04
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Mar-12
Financial Year Non-Performing Loans
Loan Loss Provisions
Source: DAID Bank
Chart 3 Rescheduled Loans by Sector for FY2011
Education 41.2%
0.4%
Housing
41.2%
Agriculture
0.4% 3.7% 0.5%
Manufacturing, Services &
Transport
10.6%
Tourism 43.2%
Personal & Other Infrastructure
Source: DAID Bank
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9 Mths to March 2011
9 Mths to March 2012
F Y2011*
F Y2010
F Y2009
F Y2008
F Y2007
EC $’000 Total Assets Equity Capital Tangible Net Worth Total Income Operating Expenses (incl. Depreciation) PAT
142,257.3 17,547.6 29,695.5 5,901.0 3,767.5 859.8
182,143.4 47,970.2 61,683.9 6,592.9 4,766.9 386.4
182,081.9 47,970.2 61,160.6 8,266.1 5,169.8 3,060.3
132,538.1 17,547.6 32,566.9 8,636.1 4,818.0 1,205.8
130,652.0 17,547.6 31,222.5 7,064.5 4,063.5 582.7
131,343.5 17,547.6 30,232.3 7,852.5 3,946.8 1,957.3
131,050.1 17,547.6 29,823.4 8,218.5 4,072.5 2,292.2
57.5 0.5 23.6
50.3 1.6 23.0
49.6 1.9 22.8
3.0
3.2
3.3
% Total Expenses/ Total Income PAT/ Average Earning Assets Tangible Net Worth/ Adjusted Assets
63.8 0.7 20.9
72.3 0.3 33.9
62.5 2.0 33.6
55.8 1.0 24.6
Times Debt/ Tangible Net Worth
3.6
Source: DAID Bank Financial Statements *FY - Financial Year runs from July 1st to June 30th
CariCRIS Rating Monitor
1.8
1.9
2.9
Analytical Contacts: Arjoon Harripaul • Tel: 1-868-627-8879 • E-mail: aharripaul@caricris.com Sherry Ann Persad • Tel: 1-868-627-8879 • E-mail: spersad@caricris.com
USD 50 million Debt Issue
CariBBB+ (Regional Scale Foreign Currency)
(Initial Rating)
CariBBB+ (Regional Scale Local Currency)
USD 38 million Debt Issue
CariBBB+ (Regional Scale Foreign Currency)
(Reaffirmed)
CariBBB+ (Regional Scale Local Currency)
April 24, 2012
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CariCRIS Rating Monitor
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Chart 1 : Balance of Payments Indicators 2007-2011
10 0 2007 % of GDP
2008
2009
2010
2011
-10
-20 -30 -40
Current Account Balance
Year Financial Account Balance
Source: CariCRIS Sovereign Spreads, ECCB Estimates
CariCRIS Rating Monitor
Overall External Balance
Summary Fiscal Performance Highlights FY2007/08 - FY2011/12
Total Revenue Current Revenue Total Recurrent Expenditure Capital Expenditure Total Expenditure
FY2007/08
FY2008/09
FY2009/10
FY2010/11
FY2011/12*
753.1 741.2 663.1 230.7 811.3
829.0 804.9 734.5 208.2 856.8
826.8 759.6 771.4 241.4 925.1
875.9 789.2 833.2 298.6 1,041.0
931.0 838.1 884.9 402.6 1,187.3
5.9 3.9 8.0 23.7 12.5
6.3 6.2 6.2 34.8 14.0
% Change Total Revenue Recurrent Revenue Total Recurrent Expenditure Captial Expenditure Total Expenditure
12.0 13.0 2.6 -20.7 -4.1
10.1 8.6 10.8 -9.8 5.6
-0.3 -5.6 5.0 15.9 8.0
Source: Ministry of Finance, Saint Lucia e: Estimated
Chart 2 : Current Account, Overall Fiscal and Primary Balances FY2007/08-FY2011/12 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0
% of GDP
-2.0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
-4.0 -6.0 -8.0 -10.0
Year Current Account Balance
Overall Fiscal Balance
Primary Balance
Source: CariCRIS Sovereign Spreads, ECCB Estimates www.caricris .com
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CariCRIS Rating Monitor
Selected Economic and Social Indicators 2007-2011 2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Nominal GDP (US $ mn.)
1,229.6
1,213.2
1,177.5
1,177.9
1,136.8
Nominal GDP Per Capita (US$)
6,939.1,
6,983.5
6,831.0
4,761.9
4,658.5
Real GDP Growth (%)
1.0
0.6
0.3
5.2
2.4
Unemployment Rate (%)
n.a
20.6
20.5
16.8
14.7
Human Development Index
82/187
-
69/182
66/179
72/177
Transparency Int’l Corruption Perception Country Rank
25/183
-
22/180
24/179
na
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Central Gov’t Current Revenue
25.4
24.6
24.8
23.7
23.6
Central Gov’t Current Expenditure
23.8
23.2
20.2
18.8
19.4
Central Gov’t Current Balance
1.7
1.4
4.6
4.9
4.2
Central Gov’t Capital Expenditure
12.2
9.3
6.2
5.8
10.0
Central Gov’t Primary Balance
-4.4
-2.0
1.8
2.2
-2.6
Central Gov’t Overall Balance
-7.7
-5.2
-0.8
-0.8
-5.6
Central Gov’t Gross Debt
62.7
55.9
51.6
50.8
52.0
General Gov’t Gross Debt
68.5
62.2
57.7
55.7
56.9
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Consumer Price Index (end of period)
4.8
4.2
-3.1
3.8
8.2
Consumer Price Index (annual average)
2.8
3.3
-0.2
8.2
3.1
Credit to the Private Sector & NFPE (% of GDP)
120.9
121.3
130.0
130.4
124.3
Credit to the Private Sector & NFPE (YOY change %)
2.4
1.2
2.2
10.0
25.9
Non-Performing Loans/ Total Loans (%)
13.2
12.4
7.9
6.6
5.8
Provision for NPL (% of NPL)
36.2
23.2
31.4
37.5
45.5
Banking Sector Capital Adequacy Ratio (%)
19.0
18.6
18.3
17.5
20.4
Base Money (YOY change)
1.5
9.8
10.2
3.1
7.6
Broad Money or Money Supply (YOY change %)
6.7
1.9
1.3
6.7
6.8
Average Bank Deposit Rate (%)
3.1
3.3
3.1
3.2
3.1
Average Bank Lending Rate (%)
9.0
9.5
9.7
9.6
8.8
Interest Rate Spread
6.0
6.2
6.6
6.4
5.8
Nominal Exchange Rates (per US $)
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
Real Effective Exchange Rates (YOY change %)
-1.1
-0.4
3.8
4.3
-3.4
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
-15.4
-14.4
-11.9
-29.4
-30.3
Capital & Financial Account Balance (% of GDP)
17.8
17.0
14.7
28.5
31.9
Overall External Balance (% of GDP)
2.4
2.6
2.6
-0.9
1.6
External Public Debt (% of GDP)
33.9
32.5
32.5
30.9
35.5
Gross International Reserves (US $ mn.)
305.5
307.0
307.0
258.4
304.6
Net International Reserves (US $ mn.)
64.4
97.5
97.5
11.0
103.6
Gross International Reserves (in months of imports)
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.0
5.0
Total Debt Service (% of exports of GNFS)
11.6
10.7
10.7
11.3
14.6
Gross Financing Requirements/ Reserves (%)
70.8
72.4
72.4
143.9
119.2
Income & Economic Structure
Fiscal Accounts (% of GDP)
Monetary, Financial & Exchange Rate Indicators
External Sector Indicators
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39
40 Analytical Contacts: Arjoon Harripaul • Tel: 1-868-627-8879 • E-mail: aharripaul@caricris.com Kathryn Budhooram • Tel: 1-868-627-8879 • E-mail: kbudhooram@caricris.com
USD 10 million Debt Issue
CariA+ (Regional Scale Foreign Currency)
(Notional)
CariA+ (Regional Scale Local Currency)
July 2012
ttA+
(Trinidad and Tobago National Scale)
Chart 1: Contribution to Revenue by Business Division for 2011
17.1% 42.6%
13.4%
3.2% PPE Engineering Services Industrial Sales
3.5%
6.0%
EIA Upstream Energy Testing & Inspection
Source: TOSL’s 2011 Audited Financial Statements
CariCRIS Rating Monitor
14.2%
Safety Sales
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41
42
Times
Times
Chart 2: Gearing and Interest Cover
0.8
20
0.7
18 16
0.6
14
0.5
12
0.4
10
0.3
8 6
0.2
4
0.1
2 0
0.0
FY2005
FY2006
FY2007
FY2008
FY2009
FY2010
Financial Year Debt / Equity
CariCRIS Rating Monitor
Interest Cover
FY2011
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43
44  
2011*
2010
2009
2008^
F Y2007
TT$ Million Operating Revenue EBITDA PAT Net Cash Accruals Equity Share Capital Tangible Net Worth
243.1 46.9 26.7 30.9 29.6 145.6
243.5 45.2 18.8 23.4 29.6 122.6
199.8 31.8 13 17.2 29.6 110.9
366.8 66.2 41.1 43.3 29.6 101.2
207.4 23.3 16.2 15.6 29.6 55.6
40 17.9 11.1 43.9
26.5 11.1 7.8 22
5.7 0.7 0.6 (0.2) 2.3
6.5 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.6
% Gross Profit Margin EBITDA Margin PAT Margin ROCE
42.5 19.1 10.9 23.3
38.1 18.5 7.7 20.1
38 15.8 6.5 14.3
Times Interest Cover Net Cash Accurals/ Total Debt Total Debt/ Tangible Net Worth DSCR Current Ration
18.7 1 0.2 1.7 2.7
9.5 0.6 0.3 1.2 2.4
4.8 0.3 0.6 0.8 2
Source: TOSL Audited Financial Statements ^ 22 Months to December 2008 as a result of a change in the financial year end to December from February * Financial Year runs from January-December
CariCRIS Rating Monitor
Entity
Issue
Ratings
1
The National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago
USD 400 Million Debt Issue
CariAAA (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariAAA (Regional Scale Local Currency) ttAAA (Trinidad & Tobago National Scale)
2
Phoenix Park Gas Processors Limited
USD 185 Million Debt Issue
CariAAA (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariAAA (Regional Scale Local Currency) ttAAA (Trinidad & Tobago National Scale)
3
Goddard Enterprises Limited
USD 16 Million Debt Issue (Notional)
CariAACariAA bbAA
4
St. Lucia Electricity Services Limited
USD 15 Million Debt Issue (Notional)
CariBBB (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariBBB (Regional Scale Local Currency)
5
Government of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago
USD 500 Million Debt Issue (Notional)
CariAAA (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariAAA (Regional Scale Local Currency) ttAAA (Trinidad & Tobago National Scale)
6
Government of Barbados
USD 300 Million Debt Issue (Notional)
CariAACariAA
(Regional Scale Foreign Currency) (Regional Scale Local Currency)
7
Government of Anguilla
USD 25 Million Debt Issue (Notional)
CariACariA-
(Regional Scale Foreign Currency) (Regional Scale Local Currency)
8
Pan Caribbean Financial Services Limited
USD 25 Million Debt Issue (Notional)
CariBBB- (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariBBB (Regional Scale Local Currency) jmA+ (Jamaica National Scale)
9
Republic Bank Limited
TTD 1 Billion Debt Issue
CariAA+ (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariAA+ (Regional Scale Local Currency) ttAA+ (Trinidad & Tobago National Scale)
10
Eastern Caribbean Home Mortgage Bank
USD 30 Million Debt Issue (Notional)
CariAACariAA-
11
NCB Capital Markets Limited
USD 25 Million Debt Issue (Notional)
CariBBB- (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariBBB (Regional Scale Local Currency) jmA+ (Jamaica National Scale)
12
National Commercial Bank Jamaica Limited
USD 75 Million Debt Issue (Notional)
CariBBB (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariBBB+ (Regional Scale Local Currency) jmAA(Jamaica National Scale)
13
Sagicor Life Jamaica Limited
USD 75 Million Debt Issue (Notional)
jmAAA
14
Government of Saint Lucia
USD 38 Million Debt Issue (Notional)
CariBBB+ (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariBBB+ (Regional Scale Local Currency)
15
TOSL Engineering Limited
USD 10 Million Debt Issue (Notional)
CariA+ CariA+
16
Dominica Agricultural, Industrial & Development Bank
USD 10 Million Debt Issue (Notional)
CariBBB- (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariBBB- (Regional Scale Local Currency)
17
Development Bank of Jamaica
USD 5 Million Debt Issue (Notional)
CariBBB (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariBBB+ (Regional Scale Local Currency) jmAA(Jamaica National Scale)
18
Government of the Commonwealth of Dominica
USD 25 Million Debt Issue (Notional)
CariBBB- (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) CariBBB- (Regional Scale Local Currency)
(Regional Scale Foreign Currency) (Regional Scale Local Currency) (Barbados National Scale)
(Regional Scale Foreign Currency) (Regional Scale Local Currency)
(Jamaica National Scale)
(Regional Scale Foreign Currency) (Regional Scale Local Currency)
w w w. caricris . com
45
Cari Cari 46
Regional
National
Definition
Regional
National
Definition
CariAAA
**AAA
Highest
CariP1 / P1+
**P1 / P1+
Highest
CariAA (+/-)
**AA (+/-)
High
CariP2 / P2+
**P2 / P2+
High
CariA (+/-)
**A (+/-)
Good
CariP3 / P3+
**P3 / P3+
Average
CariBBB (+/-)
**BBB (+/-)
Adequate
CariP4 / P4+
**P4 / P4+
Below Average
CariBB (+/-)
**BB (+/-)
Below Average
CariP5 / P5+
**P5 / P5+
Default
CariB (+/-)
**B (+/-)
Weak
CariC(+/-)
**C(+/-)
Poor
CariD
**D
Default
Definitions Regional scale ratings use the listed rating symbols with the prefix ‘Cari’ while national scale ratings use the above symbols with the prefix applicable for the respective national scale – ‘bb’ for the Barbados national scale, ‘jm’ for the Jamaica national scale and ‘tt’ for the Trinidad and Tobago national scale. The long-term rating scale is used for debt instruments with original tenure of more than 1 year, whereas the short-term ratings scale is used for commercial paper or debt instruments with tenure of less than 1 year.
REGIONAL RATING SCALE : The rating indicates that the level of creditworthiness of an obligation/obligor adjudged in relation to other obligations/obligors in the Caribbean* is…. (as per the table).
NATIONAL RATING SCALE: The rating indicates that the level of creditworthiness of an obligation/obligor adjudged in relation to other obligations/obligors in [country name] (e.g. Jamaica) is… (as per the table above). * The term Caribbean as used here covers the following countries: Bahamas,
Barbados, Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Panama, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago and the following countries in the OECS – Anguilla, Antigua & Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, Montserrat, St. Kitts & Nevis, Saint Lucia and St. Vincent & the Grenadines.
Cari Cari Cari Cari / P2 P2+ Cari P1+ P1+ Cari P2+ Cari Cari
(+/-
P4+ Ca Ca Ca Ca Ca Ca Ca Ca Ca Ca Ca Ca Ca Ca Ca Ca Ca A( Ca Ca Ca Ca Ca Ca
iAAA CariA (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA CariA (+/-) CariP1 / P1+ iP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariAAA CariA (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-)
iD CariAAA CariA (+/-) CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ Cari 47 iAAA CariA (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA CariA (+/-) Ca iP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariAAA CariA (+/-) CariBBB (+ iC(+/-) CariD CariAAA CariA (+/-) CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 2+ CariAAA CariA (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA CariA (+ + CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariAAA CariA (+/-) CariB iB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA CariA (+/-) CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4 + CariP2 / P2+ CariAAA CariA (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariA + CariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariAAA Ca iBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA CariA (+/-) CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3 + CariP3 /CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 A (+/-) CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ Car iP2 / P2+ CariAAA CariA (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA C iP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariAAA CariA (+
CariA (+/-) CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+ Car + CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariAAA CariA (+/-) CariBBB ariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA CariA (+/-) CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+ ariAAA CariA (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD ariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 ariAAA CariA (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD ariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 ariAAA CariA (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD ariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 ari ariAAA CariA (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD Alignment with best practices in / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 ariP1 / +P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariP3 International capital markets. ariAAA CariA (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD ariP1 / +P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariP3 Increased access to funding and / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 increased visibility with (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD ariAAA CariA (+/-) CariBBB international ariP1 / P1+ CariP2 investors. / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 ariAAA CariA (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD ari + Cost benefits: Reduced cost of ariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ CariP1 borrowings. ariAAA CariA (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD Increased financial discipline and/ P3+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / ariP1 / +P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariP3 an independent diagnostic (+/-) CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ CariP5 / P5+ analysis. ariP2 / P2+ CariAAA CariA (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) CariB(+/-) Ca ariAAA+ CariA (+/-)toCariP1 P1+ Opportunity contribute/ to the CariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P3+ CariP4 / P4+ ari ariP1 / P1+ CariP2 /ofP2+ CariAAA CariA (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) CariBB (+/-) development the region’s ariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA CariA (+/-) CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariP3 / P capital markets. ariP5 / P5+ CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+ CariAAA CariA (+/-) CariBBB (+/-) + An ideal pre-cursor to an ariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA CariA (+/-) CariP1 / P1+ CariP2 / P2+
-) CariB(+/-) CariC(+/-) CariD CariAAA
Regional Credit Rating
ADVANTAGES
International rating.
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