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Alex Kennedy, Washington
Choosing cooperation over conflict A vision of common security with the Maghreb States
Algiers, Algeria, May 2025 –The Maghreb Union is a united political block after Algeria and Morocco resolved their differences through the 2018 European Union-backed Treaty for Western Sahara Autonomy. Multiple rounds of democratic elections in the Eastern Maghreb mean civilian democratic participation is developing apace in Tunisia and Libya. Vibrant secular and Islamist-themed parties have taken root in a German-style federative parliamentary system blending quasireligious and secular parties loosely or tightly aligned by region and issue. In early 2025, Morocco, Tunisia, and Egypt, with strong backing from the rotating European Union Presidency held by Turkey, are admitted to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. To form a stronger collective defense and to ensure common human security, NATO has opened itself further to nations with access to the Atlantic Ocean. Common security is enhanced as NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense clause spreads to the European Union periphery. Social influences follow collective security with effects such as the liberalization of trade tariffs in oil and gas, and more collective strides towards ensuring human rights concerns are integrated into the political life of Maghreb nations. Following the European Recession of the mid-2010’s, Spain and France pulled a 180 degree turn in their security and immigration policies due to economic necessity. Investment and tourists flow from Europe into North Africa and vice versa. A demographic crunch means Western Europe has to accept labor from the Maghreb - the low-wage, high-skill workers of the future come from Algeria and Morocco as much as from Poland and Serbia.
Europe in North Africa: Back to the Future? There are parallels between post-War Europe and post-Arab Spring Maghreb security. The impact of the Arab revolutions will be long-lasting as were the aftershocks of World War II. An Arab World Marshall Plan is needed - the Deauville Partnership is a good place to start. This would not require a large investment of capital, like the U.S. into Europe after the War, but rather a focused opening of the Maghreb societies to freeflowing global influences. Global influences on these societies could accelerate the pace of democratic change over the next 15 years. The underlying systems of the European Union are applicable to North Africa today as in post-War Europe. From the ashes came the European Coal and Steel Community
Alex Kennedy President of Kennedy Consulting International, which he founded in September 2012. He studied Arabic at Georgetown University and International Relations and US Foreign Policy (focus on Europe and the Middle East) at the American University School of International Service. Previous positions include that of Coordinator for the Foreign Policy Program, Council for the US and Italy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C., Deputy Director, Executive Council on Diplomacy and International Business-Government Council in Washington, D.C. and Staff Assistant, Foreign Policy Program at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy. He was previously a Fellow with the US-Qatar Business Council.
(ECSC) focusing on economic integration between France and Germany as an antibody to further conflict. As the ECSC was the precursor organization to the European Union because old enemies France and Germany chose collaboration over conflict, the EU, Maghreb Union and NATO could collectively work on a Maghreb security framework, planting seeds for Moroccan-Algerian peace.
Evolutions to be considered There are lessons for the Maghreb societies to be taken from the foundational period of the EU (approx 1950-90), but there are more recent lessons drawn from the EU’s actual implementation of stabilization programs addressing the Balkans conflicts (approx 1985-1999: disintegration of Yugoslavia to NATO air campaign in Kosovo). As the nations of the Maghreb open up, they will require new security and economic cooperation mechanisms that have not traditionally been present in the recent history of these nations. To consolidate democratic gains and prevent human insecurity (violent revolution in Libya, Western Sahara stalemate) the European Union and NATO could focus on a more holistic approach to security in the region. To ensure the stability of post-revolution Maghreb countries the EU can apply similar mechanisms and processes as applied to the Balkan nations through the Stabilization Pact for South Eastern Europe. This all-encompassing plan addressed international, regional and local aspects of the integration (or reintegration) of a region of countries back into the European fold. It paved the way for Turkish EU Accession talks improving regional security. This Stability Pact used a mistake
14 and-learn approach with various “baskets” of programs (civil police training, tariffs trade reduction, judicial and educational capacity-building programs) where if certain programs were measured as ineffective their resources were applied elsewhere. With security ensured, the education and judicial systems of the Balkans nations are able to develop freely.
More cohesion and EU integration To give guideposts for the path ahead in the Maghreb, the EU should implement lessons learned and best practices developed from the experiences of post-war Europe in collaboration with new democratic nations. The collapse of the Berlin Wall, the fall of communism and the break-up of Yugoslavia have rough parallels with what we are witnessing in the Maghreb nations today. Successful implementation of post-conflict and post-economic transition lessons comes from the experience of nations like Croatia, Albania, Kosovo, and Slovenia. The international community and the European Union can apply lessons and best practices from experience with the Balkans to the Maghreb. For Europe to reach beyond its far-flung borders and solve regional problems it will need to strengthen integration of its own economic system. Viviane Reding, European Commission Vice-President, wrote in “Why we now need a United States of Europe” from the previous issue of this publication: “There is a common European currency, but no substantial common European budget that can be used efficiently to achieve economic policy goals”. A strong peacekeeping and social policing program is not enough. The European Union should continue to project force and further collectivize the interoperability of the Continent’s armies to remain a contributor to global security. If the European Union is able to act as a stabilizing force in the Maghreb and wider Pan-Sahel region, it could spread the social benefits of ‘unionizing’. As the Union expands outward, it could facilitate acceptance of democratizing influences by the peoples of the Maghreb region.
The longing for dignity The first section of this article is a vision of what is possible. It is a potential future scenario for European involvement in the Maghreb region. It is in the global interest for European states to take a stronger supporting role in the Maghreb. Civil society will flourish in the Maghreb nations and the experience of European integration can serve as an easy model. Despite negative feelings of a heavy-handed European colonial past by older Maghreb generations, the unshackled youth of the revolution are more likely to adopt European democratic values. As American interests aligned with helping Europe back to its feet after World War II, the Arab Spring gives Europe an opportunity to bookend its post-colonial past. Now is time to start a new chapter working towards a common security with the Maghreb states.
Security and Defence
The budget crisis is dragging the Common Security the contrary, the EU Member States must use the c tative leap forward by building on the foundations bitions in the field of security and defence. The civ
The Member States must reconcile European solidarity and The EU Common Security a
by Pieter De Crem, Belgian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of D
In this radically and fundamentally changing world characterised by many new and highly unpredictable events, the European Union has to be prepared for a wide range of security threats. The need for a cross-border approach and state-ofthe-art military capabilities is greater than ever. However, recent crises have demonstrated that Europe often experiences significant difficulties with acting in a consolidated way.
European cooperation in security and defence – a long-winded effort… If we want to maintain the peace and stability that Europe has worked so hard to achieve, we have to be able to effectively tackle such threats. The time has therefore come for the
Minister De Crem in Mali, talking with a Belgian helicopter crew.
