THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION
Water stress threatens global political and economic stability
by Dr Marcus DuBois King, Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University, Washington, D.C.
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overnments, industry, and civil society are facing urgent political and economic risks to water security. As the impacts of climate change become more apparent, demand grows and supply is increasingly constrained. Each year at least 4 billion people experience severe water scarcity for at least one month of the year and nearly 500 million are exposed to water scarcity all year long. In the future, water stress will touch on almost all aspects of life including human security, economic growth, political stability and interstate conflict and it will be an increasing push factor for environmental migration.
Water crises – the role of climate change Today, poor governance and resource management are behind the majority of water crises, but climate change is playing an increasing role. Climate change’s impact on water resources is multidimensional affecting the quantity, quality and timing of water supply. Multiple climate models predict increasing variability, intensity and occurrence of droughts and floods. Rainfall will almost certainly decline in mid- latitude regions, and all regions are expected to experience higher temperatures. At the same time, climate change creates more water in the atmosphere increasing the likelihood of typhoons and hurricanes. Global water demand is reaching unsustainable levels. In addition to environmental factors, population growth, lifestyle changes, and agricultural practices will contribute to excess demand for water in the next 20-30 years as the quality and quantity of water declines. Global water use is likely to increase by 20-50 percent by 2050 with industrial and domestic use sectors growing at the fastest pace.
photo: ©piyaset, stock.adobe.com
Climate change related migration will become one of the most substantial global challenges
Developing countries experiencing steady economic growth are especially prone to water insecurity. As people move up the economic ladder, their lifestyles are more water intensive. This will be seen largely through indirect means such as changes in diet and increased demand for goods that are water-intensive to produce such as cars, electronics, clothing and home construction materials. Countries may have trouble meeting expectations from their populations to improve water infrastructure. Global water supply is also a concern. The worlds’ aquifers are being depleted at an alarming rate. In large parts of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), South Asia, as well China and Mexico, groundwater use is already the prime water source. Years of over withdrawal extraction, pollution and ineffective water policies have degraded supply, in some cases irreversibly.
A growing base for water disputes Nation states’ unilateral development of water infrastructure on shared international rivers signals potential conflict. About 3700 hydropower dams are under construction world-wide,
states’ unilateral development of water “Nation infrastructure on shared international rivers signals potential conflict.”
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notably in Africa and in Asia. In Asia, new dam construction threatens the food security of the lower riparian states in the Mekong River System. Currently, the preponderance of water stress-related conflict occurs within states where local competition for water
