Helga Maria Schmid, OSCE Secretary General, Vienna
COP28: Moving away from fossil fuels
Dr Peter Liese MEP, European Parliament, Brussels/Strasbourg
The world is changing at high speed. Since Putin's attack on Ukraine, conflicts are breaking out in crisis regions around the world and acts of war are once again being used as a political tool. Energy flows are being rerouted and the climate is overwhelming us with natural disasters. Artificial intelligence is beginning to impact our lives and a return to national ways of thinking can be observed not only in Europe.
When we founded our magazine in 2008, in the middle of the global financial crisis, our main goal was to promote European unity and to be a critical observer of the issues discussed and decisions made in Brussels.
Over the past 15 years, we have published careful analysis of the most important events in Europe and the world: from the Greek debt crisis to the war in Syria and the Daesh terrorist attacks against Europe, from progress on European defence to the failure of NATO in Afghanistan that we had predicted, from the reality of Brexit, that we didn’t want to believe, to the global shutdown during the Covid-19 pandemic that did not spare our team either.
Thinking back to the year 2015, the images in our heads are of people on the move, often walking all the way from the Middle East to Europe. Since then, a large part of our reporting has been devoted to migration and human rights.
We presented the topic of alternative energies in our magazine long before the invasion of Ukraine and the associated energy crisis.
In view of the increasing number of natural disasters, we have widely covered civil protection over the past two years and have dedicated this 50th issue to climate change and its impact on our security.
In a separate chapter in each issue, we highlight significant changes in security and defence policy relevant to Europe.
The 50th edition of our European magazine!
by Hartmut Bühl and Nannette Cazaubon, Paris
For issue no50, Nannette Cazaubon took a picture of Hartmut Bühl on a bridge over the Seine in Paris; he is holding an original copy of the first issue (1-2008)
On the occasion of the 50th issue of our quarterly publication, we must admit that the world is taking an alarming turn in this year of 2024.
The war in Ukraine is entering its third year and EU Member States, fearful of escalation, do not always agree on the appropriate stance towards Putin. The re-election of Donald Trump as US President would have global consequences at every level: from climate policy to the risk of abandoning Ukraine and the threat to American democracy itself. It is impossible to predict whether the armed conflict in the Middle East will escalate into a wider regional conflict or lead on to a peaceful solution. And will it be possible to contain the political and geostrategic ambitions of the world's “club” of despots?
It is already clear that in the changing world order “war and peace” are no longer in the hands of Washington alone. The current status quo – the US as a “security provider” and Europe as a “security consumer”, is being shaken to its foundations.
We will continue to observe Europe and the world.
And we appeal to the common sense of European citizens to vote in June against nationalist and anti-European currents in the European Parliament!
We would like to thank our readers for their loyalty and our esteemed authors and free correspondents for their extraordinary commitment to supporting our publication with articles and interviews. We also would like to thank our tireless team and our new publishing house for their valuable advice and support.
Hartmut Bühl Nannette Cazaubon
3 Editorial
Hartmut Bühl / Nannette Cazaubon
6 News
Nannette Cazaubon
In the Spotlight Will Europe be able to stop Putin?
8 Europe must assume responsibilities
Call for a European strategic revolution
Jean-Dominique Giuliani, Paris
10 Commentary
Poland on its way back to Europe!
Hartmut Bühl, Paris
11 Cooperation in times of confrontation
Security rests on many pillars
Helga Maria Schmid, Vienna
12 Controlling migration in a humane way
Reshaping migration and asylum in Europe
Interview with Gerald Knaus, Berlin
14 A shift in perspective
Ecology and democracy
Corine Pelluchon, Champs sur Marne
16 The atmosphere’s warning bells
What’s behind weather extremes?
Johannes Bühl, Wernigerode
18 Big polluters must play their part
COP28 – Moving away from fossil fuels is a great sign for investments
Peter Liese MEP, Brussels/Strasbourg
19 DOCUMENTATION
Pathways to reach the 2050 climate goals
20 The link between climate and security
Climate change matters to NATO
Nannette Cazaubon, Paris
21 A huge step forward in 2023
The world’s renewable energy capacity
Hartmut Bühl, Paris
22
Promoting climate adaption
Weaponization of water – a growing threat
Marcus D. King, Washington D.C.
24 DOCUMENTATION
The climate change and security nexus
26 Anticipatory action is vital
The human impact of the climate crisis
Babatunde Anthony Ojei, Abuja
28
29
Food, climate and security
16th Global Forum for Food and Agriculture
Nannette Cazaubon, Paris
The energy-security nexus
Climate technologies urgently need more investments
Sinéad O’Sullivan, Washington D.C.
30 PPRD Med – a game-changer
Unlocking the potential of space-based technologies for civil protection
Philippe Geffroy / Jean Muylaert, Astana
32 Fighting environmental crime
The PERIVALLON project
Eduardo Villamor Medina, Valencia
15–32
MAIN TOPIC Climate Change
A major security issue for Europe and the world
Security and Defence
The dream of a European army Artificial Intelligence on the forefront
Avoiding duplication and isolation
Deepening European defence cooperation
Interview with Jiří Šedivý, Brussels
36 We need realpolitik
The headache of European defence
Hartmut Bühl, Paris
39
Meeting common operational requirements
Franco-German relations remain a “must” for European defence
Interview with Ralph Thiele, Berlin, and Denis Verret, Paris
42 Conference report
The 19th NATO Life Cycle Management Conference
Jørgen Bo Leimand, Naestved
44
Geometry and finesse
Artificial intelligence – current state, development, challenges and risks
Claude Roche, Paris
46 Our authors in 2023
Masthead
THE EUROPEAN –SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION
Volume 50 1/2024
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President Roberta Metsola (right) applauding Ioulia Navalnaïa after her speech at the European Parliament in Strasbourg
Did Macron speak too lightly?
Alexeï Navalny
Ioulia Navalnaïa’s powerful speech
(nc) On 28 February 2024, Ioulia Navalnaïa, the widow of the murdered Russian anti-corruption activist Alexeï Navalny, addressed the European Parliament (EP) in Strasbourg. In her speech, she accused Russian authorities, led by President Vladimir Putin, of having orchestrated her husband’s killing. She called Putin a “bloody mobster” that could not be stopped with another resolution or round of sanctions but with investigations into the financial machinations and the search for “mafia associates” in European countries “who are helping Putin and his friends to hide money”. Navalny, who was awarded the EP’s Prize for Freedom of Thought in 2021, died in an Arctic prison on 16 February 2024 under unknown circumstances. He was buried in Moscow on 1 March 2024 amid thousands of Russians chanting slogans against Putin and the war in Ukraine despite a heavy police presence.
Video: https://bit.ly/3Imj6fi
(hb) On 27 February 2024, more than 20 heads of state and government met in Paris to lobby for further aid to Ukraine. French President Emmanuel Macron’s conclusion that European states are preparing for possible Russian escalations in the coming years was met with general approval. However, his remark that everything must be done to ensure Russia’s defeat, and that even sending western troops to Ukraine cannot be ruled out, shocked most of the participants. Many allies quickly distanced themselves from Macron’s idea and German Chancellor Olof Scholz stated a clear “nein”. There is indeed a lot of criticism of Macron for having spoken too lightly about matters that should have been agreed upon with his partners. However, according to the French journal Le Monde, Macron denied two days later that he spoke carelessly. “These are sufficiently serious issues; every one of the words that I say on this issue is weighed, thought through and measured,” Macron told reporters. Macron’s “apparent desire for intellectual provocation” to then see what effects they have, as stated the Italian newspaper Corierre della Sera after the event, has not changed. This time, it seems that the effect is contrary to Macron’s intentions, as his method has undermined his message.
Jacques Delors and Wolfgang Schäuble
Loss
of two great Europeans
(hb) Two Europeans of weight passed away in December 2023.
European Parliament Follow the European elections!
(nc) The Robert Schuman Foundation has created a website dedicated to the European elections campaign. You already can find background information on the site, while results and analysis will be filled in from 6th to 9th June 2024. www.electionseuropeennes.eu/en/
Jacques Delors, who died aged 98 on 27 December 2023, was Brussels’ driving force during the European Union’s most important period of integration. As President of the European Commission from 1985 to the end of 1994, he contributed to the creation of the single market, the euro, the Schengen area and the Erasmus programme. The European anthem “Ode to Joy” was played in his honour by the orchestra of the French national guard at a memorial ceremony held in Paris on 5 January 2024. A European ceremony of honour was held for Delors on 31 January in Brussels. Dr Wolfgang Schäuble, former President of the Bundestag and Federal Minister, died on 26 December 2023 aged 81. A memorial ceremony was held in the Bundestag on 22 January 2024 where Schäuble’s commitment to his pivotal role in the German reunification and the further development of the EU were praised, as well as his outstanding merits for the French-German relations, which was highlighted by French President Emmanuel Macron present at the ceremony.
EU Commission President von der Leyen speaking at the Brussels ceremony for Jacques Delors
Refilling
Europe’s ammunition storages
(hb) On 12 February 2024, the ground-breaking of a new Rheinmetall AG factory took place in Unterlüß, Germany, in the presence of Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Federal Defence Minister Boris Pistorius as well as the CEO of Rheinmetall AG, Armin Papperger, and 250 guests. €300m are being invested in the new factory and 500 new jobs created to produce around 200,000 artillery shells, up to 1,900 tonnes of RDX explosives and 3,000 rocket motors per year from 2025 on. This will support Ukraine's defensive battle and foster the defence capability of the European Member States by refilling their ammunition storages. Denmark’s Prime Minister praised the fight for freedom of Ukrainian soldiers and highlighted the leading role Germany holds in supporting the country. Chancellor Scholz emphasised that a strong defence also requires a strong armaments industry and that the construction project in Unterlüß is a role model for Europe.
Munich Security Conference Little space for optimism in 2024
(hb) The 2024 Munich Security Conference (MSC) on 16-18 February gathered more than 450 international high profile decision makers and thought leaders. It was held in a tense geopolitical context leaving little space for optimism. The challenge was to “resist the intellectual appeal of pessimism” as stated Vice-President of the European Commission Margaritis Schinas. MSC chairman Christoph Heusgen opened the conference encouraging participants “to look for the ‘silver linings’ among the dark clouds – slivers of hope for turning crises into opportunities for change”. Difficult to see those silver linings in a world facing a record number of conflicts and dealing with the challenges of migration, hunger, climate change impacts, organised crime etc, all topics discussed at the conference. In the area of security and defence, the main issues were the support of Ukraine in its defence efforts and the headache of how the conflict in the Middle East could be brought to an end. Essential discussions on European defence underlined the necessity for a Europe-owned defence policy and competent military forces as a pillar in NATO. The announcement during the conference of Putin's opponent Alexeï Navalny’s death in an Arctic prison didn’t help to forge optimism. Ioulia Navalnaïa, who participated in the conference, gave an ad hoc speech, holding Putin and his circle accountable for the murder of her husband. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy who stressed that Putin was waging a “war against any rules at all” saw the announcement of Navalny’s death as a clear message to the leaders attending the conference.
Global warming Sea level rise – not a speculation
A complete review of the conference can be found here: https://securityconference.org
(hb) Coastal erosion and the risk of submersion of coastal towns due to climate change driven sea level rise have been a real subject of concern for several years now. In this field, a new scientific study reveals alarming findings: around 8,000 years ago, the west Antarctic ice sheet shrank considerably, and at an unexpected speed. If that happened again, water levels could cause devastating flooding in coastal towns around the world since this immense ice sheet contains enough water to raise the sea level by about five metres! According to the study, published on 8 February 2024 in the British scientific journal Nature Geoscience, parts of the ice sheet thinned by 450 metres over a period of only two hundred years at the end of the last ice age and the beginning of the Holocene. This research helps to understand how quickly the ice in the Antarctic could disappear. The new data will help improve the accuracy of the scientific models used to predict how the ice sheet will react to the ongoing global warming.
Study: https://go.nature.com/49WHWy3
From left to right: Armin Papperger, Mette Frederiksen, Olof Scholz and Boris Pistorius at the ground-breaking ceremony in Unterlüß, 12 February 2024
by Jean-Dominique Giuliani, President of the Robert Schuman Foundation, Paris
Will Europe's leaders finally wake up in 2024, a year that could well seal the continent's fate for a long time to come?
Their measured support for Ukraine shows that they have not grasped the full extent of the war that Putin has declared against them. When we look later at the attitude of the west, in addition to the revelations about the omnipresent proRussian fifth column in Europe, we will judge their almost criminal timidity.
When will we really react?
How many more thousands of deaths will it take before we really decide to thwart Russian aggression and definitively dissuade it from pursuing its revisionist expansionism, which is endangering the whole of Europe?
Europe need have no fear of the programmed break-up of Russia, which would probably be accompanied by its only possible redemption: the fall of the Chekists who have seized power there.
Increasingly autocratic but also increasingly poor, internal unrest is spreading. Bashkortostan, Tatarstan, Buryatia and
many of the 89 “subjects” of the Russian Federation are moving away from Moscow because they can no longer feed the fantasies and demands for cannon fodder of the criminals in power. The country is growing poorer; the population is suffering from privatisation; repression has become almost Stalinist. The end is nigh. There is no need to fear it. There is no point in trying to slow it down from the outside. The end of the Soviet Union has already been achieved. So will the completion of the process.
The resilience, prudence and patience of Europeans are certainly assets in the face of this impending cataclysm, but they will not be enough, here nor elsewhere.
How can we explain the fact that the threats to maritime traffic in the Red Sea have not prompted an immediate and strong reaction from the people who are primarily concerned, the Europeans? The European Union claims to protect the principle of freedom of navigation. But it is also the owner of the world's largest commercial fleet, with 70% of the world's freight transport capacity (and 60% of container ships), thanks in particular to its four carriers in the list of the world's five largest (MSC, Maersk, CMA-CGM, Hapag-Lloyd).
What use are the 400 European warships? Is the EU incapable of securing transit through the Bab al-Mandab strait? Why is it once again passing the buck to the United States? Will its geostrategic pretensions sink in the Red Sea? And what if, one day, the straits of Asia are blocked by Chinese military action? The welcome reponse of Europeans to the challenge posed by the Houthis with operation Aspides, albeit belated, reflects a positive change. Let's hope that it will lead to others.
The time has come to be geostrategic Europe wants to be “geostrategic”: the time has come! Europeans can no longer allow Ukrainian civilians to perish under Russian missiles and the conflict to drag on for fear of an escalation that will never happen. We cannot allow Iran and its stooges to hold world trade hostage, feed inflation and insecurity here at home, drain the resources of the Suez Canal, or risk seeing other straits – Hormuz, Malacca – subjected to the same blackmail.
Europe must assume global responsibilities to avoid the contagion of the Russian example, which has unleashed violence all over the planet and left thugs unfettered where they hope to exploit hitherto contained resentments. Only determina -
“ Only determination, the threat of force and steadfastness can now guarantee European peace.”
tion, the threat of force and steadfastness can now guarantee European peace. Europeans must show their determination to wage war on those who publicly declare themselves to be their enemies if they are to have any chance of avoiding one. Weakness would mean inevitable conflict. They must bury once and for all the days of empires, in which only Russia still believes. They must be prepared to wage war in order not to have to go to war. From now on, as has unfortunately often been the case in our history, only the possibility of resorting to force can guarantee peace. We need to call for a real revolution in Europe, which remains our best asset for peace, provided it wakes up.
Launch of EUNAVFOR ASPIDES
(nc) On 19 February 2024, the Council of the European Union launched UNAVFOR ASPIDES, a defensive maritime security operation that will be active along the main sea lines of communication in the Baab alMandab and Hormuz straits, as well as international waters in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Oman, and the Gulf. The initial duration of the operation has been set to one year.
Cooperating with like-minded international partners, ASPIDES aims to contribute to the safeguarding of maritime security and ensure freedom of navigation, especially for merchant and commercial vessels. Within its defensive mandate, it will provide maritime situational awareness, accompany vessels, and protect them against multi-domain attacks at sea. Operation ASPIDES will closely coordinate with EUNAVFOR ATALANTA to contribute to maritime security in the West Indian Ocean and in the Red Sea.
The operation headquarters will be based in Larissa, Greece. Commodore Vasileios Gryparis (EL) was appointed Operation Commander, and Rear Admiral Stefano Costantino (IT) Force Commander.
Since October 2023, numerous Houthi attacks have targeted international commercial vessels in the region, breaching the freedom of the high seas and the right of transit passage in straits used for international navigation enshrined in the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea. On 10 January 2024, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2722 (2024), condemning the attacks in the strongest terms and noting the right of member states, in accordance with international law, to defend their vessels from attacks, including those that undermine navigational rights and freedoms. On 29 January 2024, the Council approved a Crisis Management Concept for a possible EU maritime security operation to safeguard freedom of navigation in relation to the Red Sea crisis. The operation was formally established on 8 February 2024.
Jean-Dominique Giuliani is the President of the Robert Schuman Foundation in Paris since 2000. www.robert-schuman.eu/en
Factsheet: https://bit.ly/3ww9z2J
SPOTLIGHT
Commentary
Poland on its way back to Europe!
by Hartmut Bühl, Paris
“Poland is not lost yet,” is how the Polish national anthem begins.
After the Polish legislative elections of 15 October 2023, Europe breathed a sigh of relief, hoping to be able to count on a strong partner in the east again, after eight years of right-wing populist and anti-European politics led by the Law and Justice (PiS) government, trampling on the rule of law.
Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition which came second in the ballot, together with two pro-EU political groups, the Third Way and The Left, had been garnering enough support to oust PiS. Two months later, Tusk was sworn in as the new pro-European Prime Minister by Poland's President Andrzej Duda. Since then, the new government is vigorously striving to restore democracy. Tusk, a veteran politician who already served as Poland’s Prime Minister in the past as well as President of the European Council in Brussels, has pledged to restore Poland's position in the EU and double down on efforts to provide more aid to neighbouring Ukraine. Hailing his intention to "lead Poland back to the heart of the EU", the Prime Minister made his first trip to Brussels confirming his will to make Poland a real partner again.
To underpin this, Tusk has called two convinced pro-Europeans to his cabinet: Radosław Sikorski as Foreign Minister as well as former ombudsman Adam Piotr Bodnar as Minister of Justice.
When asked in an interview with the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung on 30 January 2024 if Poland was at risk, Minister Sikorski replied: “Putin has threatened Poland, Latvia and Finland. When he threatens a country, he means it. Too often we don’t take him seriously. There are Russian tanks in Belarus and now Russia has moved nuclear weapons there”.
And when in February 2024 Josep Borrell, on the way to Kyiv, made a short visit to Warsaw, the EU High Representative said: “the Polish government and the Polish society have been putting in a lot of effort. And I want to thank you for this important contribution to the overall European Union support to Ukraine”.
On 20 February, Justice Minister Bodnar briefed the European Council on his action plan to reestablish the rule of law, which includes amongst others: membership of the European Public Prosecutor's Office and full compliance with the decision of the Court of Justice of the EU; independence of justice via the appointment of judges by their peers; reform of constitutional courts...
Alas, Bodnar’s points on this long list will not come into force as long as the signature of President Duda, flying the colours of PiS, is not on the paper.
If Duda signs it, the European Commission will be in charge of verifying Poland’s new democratic approach, and Prime Minister Tusk will strive to implement his action plan in May 2024 at the latest, and thus in time for the 20th anniversary of Poland's accession to the EU. Once the rule of law restored, the Polish government will have access to funding from the €60bn recovery plan.
If Duda were to veto it, the new coalition will have good arguments in the European election campaign to unmask the president as a stooge of the PiS party. ■
Handshake between EU High Representative Josep Borrell (left) and Polish Foreign Affairs Minister Radosław Sikorski
How to cooperate in times of confrontation
Security rests on many pillars
by Helga Maria Schmid, Secretary General, Organization for Security and Co-operation
in
Europe (OSCE), Vienna
To say we live in challenging times is an understatement. War, humanitarian crises, and a global political environment characterised by competition instead of cooperation have weakened security and stability in Europe and beyond. Security and cooperation, embodied in the OSCE name, can therefore seem like a distant aspiration. Yet it is precisely because of the security challenges facing the OSCE region that the organization and its work has never been more vital.
The spirit of widespread cooperation
The OSCE did not begin as an international organization but rather as a conference that brought the east and west together for dialogue. Thus, we are not an organization of the so-called “like-minded”. It has always been about avoiding further escalation, about keeping channels open.
When heads of state and government met in Geneva and Helsinki between 1973 and 1975 as part of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE), they were convinced that cooperation was needed not only in the fields of arms control and security, but also in economics, science and the environment, human rights and democracy. This was embodied in the Helsinki Final Act signed in 1975 and in our subsequent growth from a “conference” to an “organization” in 1995. With 57 participating states in North America, Europe and Asia, the OSCE has grown into the world's largest regional security organization.
The comprehensive approach to security established in Helsinki, which allows the organization to help states address security across the politico-military, economic, environmental and human dimensions, still characterises the OSCE’s work today, both in Vienna and in the field. Often engaging in “silent diplomacy” away from the spotlight, the OSCE works on conflict prevention, crisis management and post-conflict rehabilitation.
A hallmark of the OSCE's work is its ability to promote regional approaches to common challenges. This includes improving the rule of law and trial monitoring in south-east Europe or addressing the effects of climate change in central Asia. The OSCE is able to convene states facing similar issues, and build consensus around shared solutions. Ultimately, everything the organization does, whether it is fighting corruption and organized crime, monitoring elections, improving the safety of journalists, or training border guards on human rights standards, supports the people in our region and beyond.
Defending OSCE core values in difficult times Sadly, like every other multilateral organization, the OSCE has been severely affected by Russia’s war against Ukraine, which has been at the top of the agenda of the OSCE Permanent Council since February 2022. Today, thanks to a fully extrabudgetary effort, in which individual states fund over 20 projects addressing issues ranging from the impact of landmines to the environmental damage of the war, OSCE staff continues to help the Ukrainian government and civil society deal with the consequences of the war.
In recent years the OSCE demonstrated its flexibility and responsiveness, and its ability to provide real added value to states on a number of issues closely linked to their security. The OSCE has become a global leader in combating human trafficking, providing recognised expertise in key areas like fighting online exploitation and preventing labour exploitation in global supply chains. Another area where the organization has a truly unique role is cybersecurity. The OSCE is the first regional organization to adopt pioneering confidence-building measures to reduce the risks of conflict stemming from the use of information and communication technologies, and the OSCE Cyber Point of Contact network is a best practice other organizations are looking at closely.
The next months will not be easy. But the OSCE is in good hands, with the capable and steady leadership of Malta when it comes to defend OSCE core values and commitments. Malta’s priorities based on principled engagement and bridge-building come at just the right time, to ensure the OSCE and its comprehensive approach to security remain an indispensable part of the security architecture in Europe and beyond. ■
Helga Maria Schmid
was appointed to the post of Secretary General of the OSCE in December 2020 for a three-year term. Prior to this, she was Secretary General for the European External Action Service (EEAS). She started her career in the diplomatic service as Assistant Private Secretary to the Minister for European Affairs of Germany (1990–1991) and since then has held several prominent diplomatic positions. From 2011 to 2016, she was the Deputy Secretary General for Political Affairs for the EEAS. Preceding that, she was the Director of the Policy Planning and Early Warning Unit (Policy Unit) of High Representative Javier Solana in the General Secretariat of the Council of the European Union in Brussels.
Controlling migration whilst preserving human rights
Reshaping migration and asylum in Europe
Interview with Gerald Knaus, Founding chairman of the European Stability Initiative (ESI), Berlin
The reform of the Common European Asylum System (CEAS) is in full swing. If enacted, the legislative proposal would have a serious impact on the individual right to asylum and human rights for refugees in the EU. We spoke with the migration researcher and author Gerald Knaus, who heads the think tank European Stability Initiative (ESI) in Berlin.
The European: Mr Knaus, our societies are overwhelmed by the challenge of increasing migration. Will Europe with its current CEAS project abandon the principles of human rights?
Gerald Knaus: First, we must distinguish between legal and irregular migration, and between migrants and those who come because they flee persecution or war as refugees.
The European: Are you thinking of refugees from Ukraine, who obtain temporary protection in the EU for the duration of the war?
G. Knaus: Yes, let’s take the example of Germany: in 2022, the country saw a historic record of arrivals, mostly refugees, women and children who arrived legally, without smugglers, following a decision the EU took unanimously in
early 2022 to allow Ukrainians not only to come in as tourists without a visa, something that they could do before, but to obtain temporary protection in the EU for the duration of the war. Presently, there are more than 4.6 million Ukrainians in the EU.
The European: And there is the issue of irregular migration. G. Knaus: Irregular migration is often a huge risk to those who arrive, across the Mediterranean or land borders in the east. Last year, 260,000 people crossed the Mediterranean into the EU, more than in 2022. There were many tragedies, such as the sinking of a boat that cost hundreds of lives off the coast of Greece. But it was not a high number compared to the Ukrainians refugees who arrived.
The European: The CEAS reform is now presented as a tool to reduce this irregular migration.
G. Knaus: It is unlikely to do so. But the status quo is not acceptable either. At the moment, international law is being violated at many of the EU’s external borders. For a Union committed to the rule of law, it is an unacceptable status quo.
The European: But the fear of losing control is rampant. Have we Europeans lost the quality of empathy?
G. Knaus: Europeans are capable of empathy and subject to fears of loss of control like Canadians, Australians, or Turks. However, no democracy in the world has open borders for anyone who wants to immigrate. All democracies need policies on how to control irregular migration. But democracies committed to the respect of human dignity need strategies that are respectful of human rights, including the right of an asylum seeker not to be put in danger. The challenge is how to implement humane control of migration. Pushbacks are not humane, as we have seen in cooperation with Libya since 2017.
The European: That’s what you meant when you wrote in one of your last books that borders “must be designed humanely”. How can this work?
G. Knaus: Take irregular migration across the Mediterranean as an example. To reduce this without violating human rights, there is only one option: cooperation with third countries. It is baffling to me that this is not more widely recognised. Consider a boat that leaves north Africa. Italy can ignore it. Whoever leaves and does not drown will then arrive in the EU. There is no control. Or Italy can try to get Libyan or Tunisian authorities to stop such boats by force and bring those spotted at sea back to their coasts…
“ At the moment, international law is being violated at many of the EU’s external borders. For a Union committed to the rule of law, it is an unacceptable status quo.”
The European: …but neither in Libya nor in Tunisia basic human rights are respected, so this is not humane control!
G. Knaus: Right, that’s why a third option is to rescue anyone who arrives, and to send a signal that this is not a way to get into the EU because from a cut-off date those who arrive will be taken to a safe third country. If they seek asylum, a safe third country must be a place where they can do so. If this is done credibly, it should quickly reduce departures. It requires partners, and only if these are truly safe is it in line with international law. I am convinced that this can work and save thousands of lives, but it is a challenge.
The European: Mr Knaus, you are the brainchild of the 2016 EU-Turkey agreement, which still works. The EU is aiming for something similar with other countries in Africa. Might this work? What is it ultimately about?
G. Knaus: What I just sketched was the idea behind the EUTurkey statement: a cut-off point, 18 March 2016, after which Turkey was willing to take people back, plus respect for human rights, requiring Greece to carry out an assessment of whether Turkey was in fact a safe third country for any individual to be returned there. Despite difficulties in implementation, which I analysed in a chapter of my book “What borders do we need?”, the statement reduced irregular migration almost immediately and dramatically and saved a lot of lives.
The European: Do you have some figures for our readers?
G. Knaus: In the twelve months before 18 March 2016, some 1,100 people drowned in the Aegean Sea. In the twelve months after, the number was below 100. Similar agreements might be reached with African countries, which, like Turkey, must see an interest in this for themselves. The goal is the same: fewer deaths at sea, fewer irregular departures.
The European: Thank you, Mr Knaus, for your wise comments. ■
Gerald Knaus is the European Stability Initiative’s (ESI) founding chairman. Born in Austria, he studied in Oxford, Brussels, and Bologna. He then taught university economics in Ukraine and spent 10 years working for NGOs and international organisations in Bulgaria, Bosnia and Kosovo. He is a founding member of the European Council on Foreign Relations and was an Associate Fellow at the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at Harvard University’s Kennedy School for five years. Gerald Knaus is the author of several books on migration and human rights, and in 2021 he received the Karl Carstens Award by the German Federal Academy for Security Policy.
SPOTLIGHT
Democracy prompts an examination of new situations
Ecology and democracy
by Corine Pelluchon, Philosopher, Professor at Gustave Eiffel University, Champs sur Marne
Many individuals harbour skepticism regarding democracy's capacity to effectively address the pressing ecological challenges at hand. The tenets of liberal democracy, founded on the principle that each person has the right to live as they please, provided their actions do not harm others, appear incompatible with ecological imperatives. The necessary shifts in consumption and production patterns essential for ecological transition seemingly conflict with the principle of individual sovereignty. While recognising that the limits to individual freedom extend beyond contemporary humans, as our technologies and lifestyles can impact the well-being of future generations and other species, entrenched traditions, issues related to purchasing power, market regulations, and the sway of certain lobbies present formidable obstacles to change. Furthermore, both democracy and Europe face criticism for perceived procrastination, attributed to the need for consensusbuilding and attentive consideration of various stakeholders. The energy crisis, the conflict in Ukraine, population displacement resulting from global warming, and the escalating scarcity of resources instigate conflicts within and between nations. Even ardent supporters of democracy fear its vulnerability, with concerns that nationalist parties might prevail in elections, leading to global divisions and wars.
The misunderstanding of democracy
While this depiction may appear realistic by highlighting the connection between an inadequate response to global warming and heightened geopolitical tensions, it presupposes a misun-
is a specialist in political philosophy and professor for applied ethics (medical, environmental and animal) at the Gustave Eiffel University (Paris region). After a thesis on Leo Strauss and works on the end of life and the problems linked to medical practices, she developed a philosophy of corporeality centered on vulnerability and our habitation of the Earth which is always a cohabitation with other living beings. Professor Pelluchon has written 15 books, most of which have been translated into foreign languages. In 2020, she was awarded the Günther Anders Prize for Critical Thinking in Germany for her whole work. www.corine-pelluchon.fr
derstanding of democracy. Democracy's strength lies in its criticism – it entails the gradual establishment of the common good. Instead of basing public policies on rigid conceptions of the good, democracy prompts an examination of new situations arising from technology, climate change, viruses, requiring solutions to emerging problems. Democracy is not merely a political system characterised by pluralism or a society marked by tolerance and equality; it is also a way of life that embraces the acceptance that meaning is contingent and not fixed, as Castoriadis says. Democracy involves interpretation and advocates experimentation. It does not only require deliberation, the confrontation of diverse viewpoints and all the moral traits and institutions that enable us to seek agreements amid disagreements. It also necessitates a method: It is necessary to multiply perspectives, so that politicians understand heterogeneous situations, draw from existing experiments, and evaluate and promote the most relevant ones. As John Dewey emphasised, individuals suffering the indirect consequences of technological, social, environmental, and political change form a public when they identify common interests and organise to make their problems and resources known. This diversification of perspectives prevents a single public from monopolising the common good. It encourages a contextualised treatment of problems that is less technocratic and less dogmatic or ideological, fitting for the complex, fluctuating, and uncertain world we inhabit.
A shift in perspective
Ultimately, democracy rests on precious yet indisputable principles – founding the social order on freedom and equality is a constant affirmation, as nothing can be taken for granted, and these principles will perpetually be attacked. The alignment of accepting the contingency of meaning with political freedom, doubt, and a steadfast commitment to justice signifies democracy's compatibility with ecology. The latter actually implies evaluating practices that are socially and environmentally counterproductive, distinguishing them from those that merit to be preserved. This demands a shift in perspective, overcoming entrenched positions that breed discrimination and hinder creativity. Democracy, imperfect and untamed as Claude Lefort described, holds promise for ecology. As a way of inhabiting the Earth and coexisting with others, including animals, it imparts the lesson that relinquishing arrogance and omnipotence is crucial for transforming ourselves and our development model. It also underscores the importance of cooperation and hope – the ability to assess the present without complacency while drawing on resources that can guide the future in a positive direction. ■
Climate change is not just about higher temperatures. It poses increasing risks to international peace and security. The devastating effects of extreme weather events in Europe and around the world, sea level rise, desertification, water scarcity, biodiversity loss and environmental pollution threaten the livelihoods of many people and the socio-economic fabric, particularly in southern countries that are often confronted with armed conflict. This holds the potential for higher migration movements, pandemics, social unrest, radicalisation and conflicts over scarce resources. The climate-security nexus is the focus of this chapter.
The atmosphere’s warning bells
What’s behind weather extremes?
by Dr Johannes Bühl, Professor, Harz University, Wernigerode
Firefighting plane in the area of Ancient Olympia, Peloponnese, Greece, 2021
Recently, notable and impactful weather events have brought the topic of weather and climate extremes back to our attention. But what’s behind them? Why are we apparently seeing more extreme weather? Is it only an observational bias because social media connects us to even the most remote parts of Earth or are we really observing a new powerful natural phenomenon? Unfortunately, the latter is the case.
Dr Johannes Bühl
is a data scientist at Harz University (Wernigerode, Germany) and a postdoctoral researcher at the Leibnitz Institute for Tropospheric Research (Leipzig, Germany). Born in 1983, he studied physics with a main focus on optics at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena. He earned his PhD from the University of Leipzig in 2015. In his current position, he researches and teaches in the field of data science.
Extreme weather increase – not a fiction
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states in its latest assessment report quite unambiguously that “the frequency and intensity of hot extremes will continue to increase and those of cold extremes will continue to decrease, at global and continental scales and in nearly all inhabited regions with increasing global warming levels”. While to date the global temperature on Earth has increased by about 1.1°C compared to the pre-industrial age, the global temperature on the European continent has already risen by more than 1.5°C, with a particularly rapid increase observed since about the year 1990. We may remember the winters of our childhood being colder and longer with more intense snowfall and extremely cold temperatures. On the other hand, heatwaves or forest fires were only a rare nuisance. That observation is correct and confirmed by recent scientific observations. Our human senses alone are not capable of detecting a change in average annual temperature of only 1.5°C. However, we do quite easily observe changes in extreme events because we can perceive their frequency, intensity and – especially – their devastations.
Stylised annual distribution of daily maximum temperature for central Europe. Blue curve: pre-industrial temperature distribution. Red curve: same distribution after global warming of 3°C. A large relative change in extreme events is visible, while at moderate temperatures change in relative frequency is very low.
A simple statistical effect
This shift in the character of extreme events has its root cause in the annual distribution of temperatures in our part of the world. The mid latitudes, in which the European continent is located, is privileged to experience quite diverse weather during the annual cycle. You can have it all: skiing in winter and relaxing at the lake shore in summer. In between, flowering fields and a beautiful Indian summer may be enjoyed. Figure 1 shows the corresponding annual temperature distributions, one from the pre-industrial age and one assuming a climate warming of 3°C. These distributions are bell-shaped, because weather is formed by an interaction of different processes –some strengthening and some weakening each other. For extreme weather to occur, a lot of effects must add up, so the more you deviate from the centre of the distribution, the rarer an event becomes.
As it turns out, climate change is shifting the distribution, but keeps its bell-shaped form untouched (red curve in Fig. 1). You can see what was described before in a subjective way: on average, we do not feel a big difference in temperature, but at the extremes edges of the temperature distribution large relative changes happen. In effect, extremely low temperatures are suppressed while extremely high temperatures are greatly increased. In the end, the tiny shift in mean temperature is amplified for extreme events.
Impacts – only the beginning
As a result of shifting weather patterns, an increasing amount of local ecosystems are pushed beyond their sustainable limits. Some notable recent examples include:
• In the Alps, glacial buildup in winter is reduced due to warmer temperatures and less snowfall, leading to less buffering of water and to low levels of the river Rhine in summer.
• A heavily increased occurrence of extreme heat and drought in summer puts stress on agricultural production and forests leading to increased failure of crops and wildfires.
• A warmer atmosphere can store more water vapour and extreme precipitation events occur more frequently and more violently.
This principle also applies to other problematic areas, like sea level rise, global precipitation and tropical storms. In all of these fields, a new class of uncommonly violent events are observed, and even more unusual events can be expected in future. The takeaway message is that there is no buffer. Climate change will push global temperatures higher and in its wake, new and so far unknown extreme weather events will happen.
“ There is no buffer. Climate change will push our temperatures higher and in its wake, new and so far unknown extreme weather events will happen.”
No excuse for inaction
The small and gradual change in global temperature that has happened so far has already measurably affected weather extremes. In all its simple mathematical beauty, the statistical effects illustrated above show how merciless climate change is manifesting itself. By now, we should really hear the atmosphere’s warning bells ringing faster and louder. Extreme weather events which until now have occurred once in 100 years may now occur once in 10 years. This acceleration will put ever increasing strain on our infrastructure, with both an increasing magnitude of extreme weather and shortening recovery times. But we still have an ace or two up our sleeve, because these changes do not come unexpected and have been projected by the IPCC long ago. The recent reports of the IPCC give detailed recommendations for each region of Earth and allow us to get ahead of this seemingly dire situation. The contents of the IPCC reports certainly count into the greatest achievements of humankind so far and their multiplicative value is immeasurably high. The reports and their suggestions are meanwhile so elaborate, that taking them literally provides more chances of success than using its remaining small mathematical uncertainties as an excuse for inaction. ■ IPCC report: https://bit.ly/49PjuiH
Big polluters must live up to their global responsibilities
COP28 – Moving away from fossil fuels is a great sign for investments
by Dr Peter Liese MEP, Head of the European Parliament delegation
to COP28, Brussels/Strasbourg
Climate change is the biggest long-term challenge of our political generation. We must act now for more climate protection, before we arrive at a point of no return and our children and grandchildren experience the hideous consequences of uncontrollable global warming. To this end, Ursula von der Leyen presented the EU Green Deal in 2019, the EU’s clear commitment to fighting climate change. With this economic growth strategy, reducing emissions goes hand in hand with economic prosperity and the uptake of innovative technologies and industry in Europe. At least 55% less emissions in the EU by 2030 and climate neutrality by 2050 – those are the targets the EU set itself through the climate law for this purpose.
Just recently, the EU recommended emission reductions of 90% net by 2040. This target is and remains very ambitious and we certainly need the right enabling conditions before talking about any number here. Besides giving the right framework for industry and innovation, targeted support for low-income households and cooperating with agriculture and forestry, one of the most pressing conditions certainly are the international efforts to fight climate change and decarbonise globally. We cannot fight climate change by ourselves. On the contrary: our partners around the world must also adopt climate measures as ambitious as those of the EU. No other major economic bloc, neither China nor the US or the Gulf states have any sort of such ambitious plans.
“ Many countries see how well emissions trading works in the EU and want to work with us.”
Dr Peter Liese MEP
has been a member of the European Parliament since 1994. He is the EPP's coordinator in the Committee on the Environment, Public Health and Food Safety (ENVI) and the EPP's spokesperson for health and environmental policy. Before his election as an MEP, he worked as a doctor in development projects in Central America, in a children's clinic in Paderborn and in a group practice in Sauerland. He studied medicine in Marburg, Aachen and Bonn.
Dubai climate conference – hope and fear
We started the climate conference in Dubai between hope and fear. With the United Arab Emirates hosting, with its economy heavily relying on exports of fossil fuels, many were wondering what kind of outcome governments would be able to achieve at the negotiation table. I would not have believed that we would succeed in finding an agreement on moving away from coal, oil and gas. The text of the agreement could be clearer, but it is going in the right direction. This will make it clear to investors all over the world that it is no longer worth investing in fossil fuels. Instead, shares in renewable energies, energy efficiency and nuclear energy will rise. We urgently need private investment to shift towards decarbonisation projects and clean technologies. As head of the European Parliament delegation to COP28, I am proud that I was able to make a small contribution to this success. However, there remains a lot to do in the coming months and years. First of all, we need a change in the mindset of international climate negotiations. Several countries have extremely high greenhouse gas emissions and do not live up to their global responsibilities. Although their emissions are even higher than those of the EU, some of them like China, are still considered developing countries according to the Paris Agreement. In the near future, we need a clear commitment from all major greenhouse gas emitting countries that they will set new targets by early 2025 at the latest, which will bring us close to the Paris climate target. All big polluters must play their part.
The European Union as a role model
Fortunately, the EU is receiving more and more interest in its market-based climate policy from other countries such as Brazil, South Korea and Singapore, especially the EU’s emissions trading (ETS) and the new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Many countries see how well emissions trading works in the EU and want to work with us. So far, however, they have had no contact point in the Commission. That is what the delegation from Singapore told us at COP28, for example. Therefore, I have been calling on the European Commission to set up a dedicated task force to provide advice and support to third countries in the introduction of emissions trading systems. I am very pleased that the Commission has now announced in its 2040 Communication that it will set it up. With the ETS successfully reducing emissions since its introduction in 2005, its potential for global climate protection is high if the majority of states introduce similar measures. The creation of the task force could be the most cost-effective and efficient climate measure of all time. ■
Pathways to reach the 2050 climate goals
(nc) On 6 February 2024, the European Commission published a detailed impact assessment on possible pathways to reach the climate goals laid down in the European Climate Law. The latter entered into force in July 2021 and enshrines in legislation the EU's commitment to reach climate neutrality by 2050 and the intermediate target of reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030, compared to 1990 levels. In line with the advice of the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (ESABCC) and the EU's commitments under the Paris Agreement, the Commission recommends a 90% net greenhouse gas emissions reduction by 2040 compared to 1990 levels. A legislative proposal will be made by the next Commission, after the European elections.
“We see industrial leadership and just transition as two sides of the same coin.”
Maroš
Šefčovič, Executive Vice-President for European Green Deal
In its Communication the Commission sets out a number of enabling policy conditions that are necessary to achieve the proposed 90% target by 2040: the full implementation of the existing legislation to reduce emissions by at least 55% by 2030, ensuring the competitiveness of the European industry, a greater focus on a just transition, a level playing field with international partners, and a strategic dialogue on the post-2030 framework, including with industry and the agricultural sector.
“Tackling the climate crisis is a marathon, not a sprint.”
Wopke Hoekstra, Commissioner for Climate Action
A critical time for the EU climate agenda
The proposal comes at a time when the European climate agenda has started touching sensitive sectors, such as agriculture, and traditional industries face competition from China in the green technology sector.
The idea behind it is that setting a 2040 climate target should help European industry, investors, citizens and governments to make decisions on investments and long-term planning during this decade, helping to meet the EU’s climate neutrality objective in 2050. It should also boost Europe's resilience against future crises, and notably strengthen the EU's energy independence from fossil fuel imports, which accounted for over 4% of GDP in 2022 as the Union faced the consequences of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine.
An industrial decarbonisation deal
The Commission states that the Green Deal now needs to become an industrial decarbonisation deal that builds on existing industrial strengths, like wind power, hydropower, and electrolysers, and continues to increase domestic manufacturing capacity in growth sectors like batteries, electric vehicles, heat pumps, solar photovoltaic (PV), CCU (carbon capture and utilisation) / CCS (carbon capture and storage), biogas and biomethane, and the circular economy. Once the 2040 climate target is adopted under the next Commission, that target will form the basis for the EU's new Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement, which needs to be communicated to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2025.
https://bit.ly/3TbTTKM
The link between climate change and crisis
Climate change matters to NATO
by Nannette Cazaubon, Paris
Climate change matters for our security, and therefore it matters to NATO”, Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General, said at the Dubai climate conference COP28 in December 2023. Participating in a high-level leaders’ event on climate security organised by the COP28 Presidency and the Munich Security Conference (MSC), he emphasised that “climate change creates crisis and crisis undermines the possibility for combating climate change”, adding that given the inextricable link between the two, climate change is at the core of NATO’s mission for pursuing peace and security for the Alliance.
“ Climate change creates crisis and crisis undermines the possibility for combating climate change.” Jens Stoltenberg
The Secretary General also said that NATO is adapting its militaries, both to the changing climate and to reduce emissions. He added that NATO is harnessing technological innovation in green defence and integrating climate considerations into its military plans, exercises and capabilities.
NATO and the climate change challenge
• In 1969, NATO first recognised environmental challenges by establishing the Committee on the Challenges of Modern Society (CCMS), which managed studies and fellowships focusing on issues like air and noise pollution, advanced health care and the disposal of hazardous waste.
• In 2006, NATO’s Science Committee merged with the CCMS to form the Science for Peace and Security (SPS) Programme with the aim of developing initiatives on security challenges, including environmental security issues (water management and the prevention of natural catastrophes, and energy security).
• NATO’s Science and Technology Organization (STO) also promotes and conducts scientific research related to environmental issues.
• In 2021, NATO adopted a Climate Change and Security Action Plan to bring climate change considerations into NATO’s mainstream political and military agenda.
• NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept highlights the profound impact of climate change on allied security. It states that NATO should become the leading international organisation when it comes to understanding and adapting to the impact of climate change on security.
NATO Action Plan: https://bit.ly/3V5qlQm
• At the 2023 NATO Summit in Vilnius, allies welcomed the establishment of a NATO Centre of Excellence for Climate Change and Security in Montreal, Canada.
Source: www.nato.int
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg (3rd from the left) at the COP28 climate conference in Dubai, 1 December 2023
In January 2024, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published its “Renewables 2023” report, the latest edition of the IEA’s annual market report on the sector. The IEA states that the annual renewable energy capacity added to energy systems around the world grew by 50% in 2023, reaching almost 510 gigawatts (GW), with solar photovoltaic (PV) alone accounting for 75% of renewable capacity additions worldwide. This is the fastest growth rate in the past two decades.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol told the press that under current policies and market conditions, “global renewable capacity is already on course to increase by two and a half times by 2030.” He added that this is “not yet enough to reach the COP28 goal of tripling renewables, but we’re moving closer.”
Good efforts...
While India, southeast Asia and the Middle East made progress and the increases in renewable capacity in Europe, the United States and Brazil reached unprecedented levels, China’s acceleration hit all highs: in 2023, the country commissioned as much solar PV as the entire world did in 2022, while its wind additions also grew by 66% year-on-year.
For the next five years, the agency anticipates the strongest growth ever seen in thirty years, which would give us a chance of approaching the goal governments set at COP28 of tripling global capacity by 2030.
“ Global renewable capacity is already on course to increase by two and a half times by 2030.”
Fatih
Birol, IEA Executive Director
...but not yet enough
The objective of tripling renewables is understood at the global level, with different needs from one country to another. As regards rich and large emerging countries, the IEA underlines the need that they put an end to hesitation in national policies, invest in the modernisation and adaptation of networks, and reduce delays and administrative hurdles. However, the most important challenge for the international community is rapidly scaling up the financing and deployment of renewables in most emerging and developing economies. Unfortunately, renewable installation objectives are still absent in certain countries.
IEA report: https://bit.ly/49YVnxM
Promoting climate adaptation in vulnerable countries
Weaponization of water –a growing threat
by Marcus D. King, Professor of the Practice in Environment and International Affairs, Georgetown University, Washington D.C.
Water stress is a growing problem in many parts of the world. Approximately two billion people worldwide lack access to safe drinking water, and nearly half of the world’s population experiences severe water scarcity for at least one month each year. These numbers are expected to increase as the growing impacts of climate change, including drought and desertification, and severe weather events lower the quantity and quality of water supplies worldwide. The Middle East and regions of Africa such as North Africa and the Sahel are two areas where these impacts are pervasive.
Water becomes a political issue
As water becomes scarcer, it becomes subject to manipulation for political ends by national governments and sub-state actors. For example, states with relatively greater water resources are increasingly able to wield power and exercise strategic advantage over their neighbors. This domination (hydro-hegemony) can include one country unilaterally constructing water infrastructure, usually dams, that in turn restrict the flow of water to downstream countries.
This is the case with Ethiopia’s ongoing construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which impounds water on the upper reaches of the Nile River. As a result, Egypt, which lies downstream and is dependent on the river for about 90% of its water, will lose a substantial portion of its supply. Beset by climate change-induced heatwaves and desertification, Egypt has become increasingly frustrated as talks over water allocation between the nations have stalled. Meanwhile in September 2023, Ethiopia hit a huge milestone as the water reservoir behind the
Water stress profits extreme organizations
In my research on environmental security and conflict, I noticed that areas under the influence of violent extremist organizations (VEOs), such as the so-called Islamic State, often experienced climate change-driven water stress. This correlation caused me to ask deeper questions about the nature of water’s relation to conflict in VEO-controlled areas across a wide spectrum of preand post-conflict situations.
“ As water becomes scarcer, it becomes subject to manipulation for political ends.”
I found that within these nations especially, a water-stress and conflict cycle culminated in the weaponization of water. Water stressors such as increasing temperatures, drought, desertification and poor water governance policies manifest in systemic outcomes which include diminished agricultural yields and reduced food security. This, in turn, led to human responses such as migration within the country and across borders, involvement in extremist organizations and a rise in various forms of violence. My research explores how VEOs have increased their ability to dominate their enemies both on and off the battlefield by manipulating water. It takes a deep dive into conflict dynamics in
dam finally reached its capacity, increasing the country’s ability to generate electricity while also restricting water flow to Egypt.
three distinct geographies: Syria and Iraq, Nigeria and Somalia –all places that experienced droughts between 2012 and 2017. I found that the outcomes of the water and conflict cycle enabled VEOs to use water as a weapon in a variety of destabilizing ways. I define a weapon as a medium, action or offensive capability used to coerce, injure or kill. According to this definition, I categorized dozens of actions by VEOs into six types of water weaponization strategic, tactical, coercive, unintentional, psychological and extortive or incentive (see figure below).
My research suggests that promoting climate adaptation in vulnerable countries is part of the answer. Better adaptation measures such as more efficient irrigation techniques and the use of drought-resistant seed varieties can address the underlying conditions that create the water and conflict cycle and enable water weaponization.
Internationally, under climate change agreements, the principle of “Loss and Damage” obligates countries that are relatively heavy greenhouse gas emitters to provide funds to enable climate
The categories of water weaponization
Unintentional
The use of water to destroy large or important areas, targets, populations or infrastructure
The use of water against targets of strictly military value within the battlespace
The use of water provision to fund territorial administration or weapons acquisition with aspirations of achieving legitimacy
VEOs have used water as a weapon in ways that fall into each of the categories mentioned. For example, in 2014, strategic water weaponization in Iraq was widely covered in the international media. The Islamic State seized and briefly controlled the Mosul Dam on the Tigris River, about 140 kilometers upstream from the Iraqi capital city of Baghdad. This action provided the Islamic State with virtual control of a vast area in the shadow of the dam and the ability to destroy the dam and unleash a torrent of water capable of flooding the “Green Zone” – or the location where allied forces led by the U.S. were based. As a result, the U.S. was drawn deeper into the conflict, initiating an airpower campaign in an attempt to dislodge the terrorists from their position. Sadly, there is ample evidence to suggest that the practice of water weaponization is spreading beyond the incidents I discovered in my research. Other violent extremists are weaponizing water in the Middle East and Africa, ranging from armed conflict in Burkina Faso to the Civil War in Yemen. The war in Ukraine has also featured numerous instances of water contamination, ecological destruction and targeting of water infrastructure. These events culminated in the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in 2023, almost certainly the work of Putin’s saboteurs, providing an advantage to Russia on the battlefield.
Climate change – time is not on our side
It is clearly in the global interest to stop the proliferation of water weaponization for a host of legal, ethical and practical reasons. However, a rapidly changing climate is a critical factor in the international community’s response to the odious practice of water weaponization – and a key reason why time is not on our side. A litany of higher temperatures, precipitation changes, extreme weather events and glacier depletions are steadily expanding the global footprint of water stress. As this happens, the potential locations where water can be weaponized by nations and VEOs grow in tandem.
Attempted water weaponization causes collateral damage to the environment or its human component
The use of the threat of denial of access or purposeful contamination of the water supply to create fear among non-combattants
Instrument of
The use of water provision to reward the behavior of subject populations and support legitimacy of the perpetrator
change adaptation projects in countries with historically low emissions. Parties reached a historic agreement on the operationalization of the Loss and Damage fund and allocation priorities during the Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change, COP 28, held in Dubai in December 2023. Nonetheless, funding for Loss and Damage should be increased and its scope should be expanded to incorporate more projects that promote water accessibility and build resilience to climate changedriven water stress in vulnerable and war-torn countries. Perhaps then we will have taken a positive step against normalization of this odious form of warfare. ■
Marcus D. King, Weaponizing Water – Water Stress and Islamist Extremist Violence in Africa and The Middle East (Lynne Rienner 2023)
(nc) The security and defence implications of climate change and environmental degradation are a growing and challenging threat, which is highlighted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and multiple other reports and studies. In March 2023, the Council of the European Union called for better integration of the climate, peace and security nexus in the EU's external policy. In response, the EU High Representative together with the European Commission issued a joint communication entitled “A new outlook on the climate and security nexus: Addressing the impact of climate change and environmental degradation on peace, security and defence”.
Joint Communication (excerpts)
Food security
“Climate change and environmental degradation are intrinsically interlinked and exacerbating each other, and are already affecting food security, reducing the yield of major crops such as maize, rice and wheat, and increasing the risk of simultaneous harvest failures in major producing countries. At the same time, unsustainable food production also drives environmental degradation and water scarcity. By 2050, it is estimated that more than one billion people will have insufficient access to water, that soil degradation could rise to 90%, while demand for food could increase by 60%.”
Organised crime
“Climate and environmentally induced instability and resource scarcity can be actively instrumentalised by armed groups and organised crime networks, corrupt or authoritarian regimes, and by other parties, including through environmental crime. The latter has already become the fourth largest and growing global crime sector further accelerating the environmental crisis including through the unsustainable exploitation of natural resources.”
Displacement and migration
“The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimates that, since 2008, an annual average of 21.5 million people have been forcibly displaced by weather-related events,
Climate change – what does it mean?
Global temperatures rise
Earth was about 1.36°C warmer in 2023 than in the late 19th century (18501900) preindustrial average (NASA). The last 10 years are the warmest on record. The global average temperature is expected to reach or exceed 1.5°C within the next decades. Small changes in temperature mean enormous changes in the environment.
Arctic Sea ice decline
Both the extent and thickness of Arctic Sea ice have rapidly declined over several decades. Arctic Sea ice reaches its minimum each September. This value is now shrinking at a rate of 12.2% per decade (NASA), compared to its average from 1981 to 2010. The Arctic Ocean could become essentially ice free in the summer before the mid-century.
Shrinking ice sheets
The Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets have decreased in mass. According to NASA data, Greenland is losing an average of 270 billion tonnes of ice per year, while Antarctica is losing about 150 billion tonnes per year. The rate of Antarctica ice mass loss has tripled in the last decade.
Glacier retreat
Glaciers are also retreating almost everywhere around the world – including in the Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska and Africa. Glacial melting is impacting freshwater ecosystems. Over a billion people rely on these glaciers for drinking water, sanitation, agriculture and hydroelectric power.
“ Climate and environmentally induced instability and resource scarcity can be actively instrumentalised by armed groups and organised crime networks.”
such as floods and heatwaves. These numbers are expected to increase in the coming decades, exacerbating demographic change and putting stress on cities and urban areas where the demand for housing, food, energy and jobs may rise, thus contributing to increasing social impacts of climate change.”
Health threats
“Climate change and environmental degradation negatively impact health in multiple ways. They are also undermining many of the social determinants for good health, such as livelihoods, access to healthcare and social support. These impacts can lead to instability and threaten security.”
Geopolitical impact
“Climate change is the most comprehensive threat to the Arctic regions with temperature increasing three to four times faster than the global average. External interest in resources in Arctic locations is increasing with multifaceted social, environmental and economic consequences. The thawing of the Arctic Sea ice also opens potential shipping routes and access to natural
Ocean warming
About 90% of the increased heat from the atmosphere is absorbed by the ocean. Most of the added energy (360 zettajoules since 1955, NASA/NOAA data) is stored at the surface, at a depth of zero to 700 metres. The last 10 years were the ocean’s warmest decade since at least the 1800s, and 2023 was the ocean’s warmest recorded year.
Sea level rise
The global sea level rose significantly in the last century (around 0.2 metres) as a result of added water from melting polar ice sheets and glaciers in combination with the expansion of seawater as it warms. This results in flooding and erosion of coastal and low-lying areas. Rising sea levels also contaminate freshwater sources, and saltwater interferes with agriculture.
resources which can lead to increased security tensions in the region. Climate change has a growing geopolitical impact in the global maritime domain, both around Europe (eg in Baltic and the Black Sea) as well as in the Indo-Pacific.”
Fishery and maritime disputes
“Adverse impacts of climate change on the ocean include a shift in composition and distribution of fish stocks that can destabilise fisheries agreements and increase the risk of international disputes. Sea level rise also presents a security risk due to the scale of potential displacement and migration of people, while it will also affect the measurement of maritime boundaries that determine different economic entitlements, which in turn can raise instability and conflicts.”
Energy competition
“Resources and technologies that are essential for the energy transition and the phase out of fossil fuel have become the subject of growing strategic competition, which has further accelerated since Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified military aggression against Ukraine.”
Conditions
for the military
“Member States’ security and defence forces are confronted with a changing and increasingly challenging security environment in Europe and beyond, including more severe climatic operational conditions. At the same time, they need to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and fossil fuel dependency, without affecting their operational effectiveness.”
https://bit.ly/3TmyaQr
Biodiversity loss
Global warming is likely to be the greatest cause of species extinction this century. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a 1.5°C average rise may put 20-30% of species at risk of extinction. Many of the world’s threatened species live in areas that will be severely affected by climate change.
Extreme weather events
Climate change has increased extreme weather events like severe droughts and heat waves in some regions, and extreme precipitation and coastal flooding in others. Climate change is also supposed to have a worsening effect on tornados and hurricanes, like in the Caribbean.
Anticipatory action is vital to face climate shocks
The human impact of the climate crisis
by Babatunde Anthony Ojei, Country Director for Nigeria, International Rescue Committee, Abuja
Shaibu Mohammed, a Nigerian beneficiary of an IRC climate resiliency project; after receiving cash, he also purchased a generator-driven water-pump for irrigation and pipes for his dry season farming
While climate change may seem like a distant concern for many around the globe, it is a pressing reality for the communities served by the International Rescue Committee (IRC). The three global challenges of climate change, extreme poverty, and conflict are converging and becoming increasingly concentrated in a handful of states, accounting for 10% of the global population but over 60% of global humanitarian need, whilst only receiving one third of the climate adaptation financing compared to their stable counterparts.
Nigeria – floods, food insecurity and conflict
Nigeria finds itself squarely within this nexus, grappling with the harsh realities of climate change. Our susceptibility to climaterelated shocks, particularly flooding, places us amongst the most vulnerable nations to the impacts of climate change. Flooding hazards have led to more displacements than any other climate disaster in Nigeria. The devastating floods of 2022 stand out as a grim reminder of the havoc caused by heavy climate induced rains, with over 1.4 million individuals displaced, 603 lives lost and more than 2,400 persons injured. It is the worst the country had seen since the 2012 floods, displacing over 2 million individuals, 363 lives lost, and the livelihoods of more than 16 million people profoundly impacted. The challenges brought on by the floods are compounded by food insecurity and conflict in the region. Communities largely rely on subsistence farming and livestock herding for their food and livelihoods, making them highly vulnerable to natural ca-
“ Innovations in adaptation are a critical step to effectively address ongoing challenges.”
lamities. Protracted and frequent conflict only exacerbate this vulnerability, disrupting agricultural practices and food distribution networks, thereby intensifying food insecurity and malnutrition within these communities.
The statistics are startling. Climate shocks are contributing to record numbers of acute malnutrition in children across the world, up to 60 million in 20221. Findings from a recent study 2 in Nigeria underscore the alarming threat posed by climate change to the strides made in Nigeria towards reducing childhood malnutrition.
In order to better shield individuals in conflict-ridden areas from the dire consequences of the climate crisis, it is imperative for both the climate and humanitarian sectors to explore and implement innovative adaptation and resilience strategies tailored to conflict settings.
The effectiveness of anticipatory action
In Nigeria, with support from Google.org, the IRC has created a flood-risk monitoring platform that incorporates indigenous knowledge, hydrological and meteorological (hydromet) data
and satellite information to better forecast impending droughts and trigger anticipatory cash payments3. This work was done in partnership with government actors, think tanks, the private sector and community leaders.
The findings from this project highlight the effectiveness of anticipatory action in addressing food insecurity, enabling farmers to diversify their crops, and providing vulnerable households with sustainable solutions, rather than resorting to short-term fixes like selling off livestock. The results indicate that providing anticipatory cash assistance to households residing in floodprone regions mitigated adverse coping mechanisms, bolstered proactive climate adaptation measures, and spurred investment in productive assets when contrasted with households receiving aid post-flooding. The findings suggest that large, one-time anticipatory cash transfers can build households’ climate adaptive and resilience capacity, making them a promising intervention to reduce household vulnerability to future climate shocks. Our research study found that anticipatory cash transfers yielded multifaceted benefits for households, enhancing their ability to cope with challenges and fortifying resilience against flood-related shocks. These transfers notably improved households' coping strategies, ensuring sufficient food and safeguarding livelihoods. The anticipation of flood shocks spurred proactive measures, such as early harvesting, food stockpiling, and timely evacuation. The transfers stimulated productive investments in agricultural assets and livestock, surpassing the outcomes of post-flood cash assistance. Furthermore, recipients of anticipatory cash demonstrated a propensity for diversifying livelihoods, exemplified by labour reallocation initiatives like migrating for work, showcasing the breadth of positive outcomes generated by such interventions.
Preparing for more severe climate shocks
Whilst this study demonstrates positive outcomes to tackle immediate needs in the face of impending climate shocks, the reality is that these shocks are becoming more frequent and severe. In another iteration of the project expanded to urban areas, funded by the European Union, which is in its second year, flood trigger thresholds specific to each community are being identified to develop a trigger activation model. This will monitor flood indicators and provide advanced alerts, enabling residents to prepare for impending floods. Early warning messages will support community readiness for high-risk flood events. The project will directly assist communities by providing resources and training, including in-kind donations of tools for flood prevention, resources for tree planting, and anticipatory cash. Through research and evaluation, the effectiveness of different community-led anticipatory actions will be assessed by implementing varying levels of support across treatment and control groups, such as comparing the outcomes of communities receiving anticipatory cash alone versus those engaging in community-led actions, thereby informing future strategies for flood resilience in urban areas.
As climate shocks continue to worsen and humanitarian funding needs remain unmet for both emergencies and early recovery, anticipatory approaches may be critical to meeting the short- and longer-term needs of climate- and conflict-affected households.
International Rescue Committee
The International Rescue Committee (IRC) helps people affected by humanitarian crises in over 40 crisis-affected countries, including the climate crisis, to survive, recover and rebuild their lives. The IRC has been working in Nigeria since 2012 when the organisation responded to flooding in Kogi State. The IRC runs eight field offices in northeast Nigeria and a country office in the capital Abuja, providing health, nutrition, water, sanitation and hygiene, and education services. www.rescue.org
Innovations in adaptation are a critical step to effectively address ongoing challenges but we will not see significant impact so long as climate financing remains so inequitable for climatevulnerable, conflict-affected communities. The funding disparity is even greater in the health sector, which has received less than 5% of climate adaptation financing4 in the last 10 years. We are grossly under-resourced to face climate driven health threats in the very places where they threaten the most lives. Climate finance contributors should commit 50% of all climate funding to adaptation by 2025, with a particular focus on adaptation finance for small-scale agriculture in the most conflict- and climate-impacted countries.
Coordination for anticipatory action and mitigation plans is needed for communities here in Nigeria and beyond. The international community cannot delay making them a focus of global climate efforts to ensure sustainable, meaningful progress on managing the impacts of climate change for the communities on the frontline already suffering the consequences. ■
1 https://bit.ly/48oIWK7
2 https://bit.ly/3I3yZr0
3 https://bit.ly/3OPrPdA
4 https://bit.ly/49nuZh5
Babatunde Anthony Ojei
is the IRC’s Country Director for Nigeria. He has over 25 years of experience, both in the non-profit and private sectors (environment, development, civilian protection, and humanitarian). He has worked at leadership and management levels for numerous INGOs in Nigeria, including Oxfam Great Britain, Save the Children and Center for Civilians in Conflict. Mr Ojei holds a BSc in Agriculture and an MBA in global business. He is an alumnus of the prestigious GELI Harvard and GELI London School of Economics courses.
Climate change on the agenda
W16th Global Forum for Food and Agriculture
by Nannette Cazaubon, Paris
hile farmers in several European countries express their anger, some because of the Green Deal environmental standards to which they are subjected, others on the contrary claiming support for more sustainable agriculture, the 16th Global Forum for Food and Agriculture (GFFA) took place on 17-20 January 2024 in Berlin.
The event gathered around 2,000 international guests. During the Global Forum, co-hosted by the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL), the Munich Security Conference (MSC), and the GFFA Innovation Forum, the food systems of the future and the question of how to meet the Sustainable Development Goals of the 2030 Agenda were discussed in 16 expert panels, two high-level panels, and a high-level debate.
The nexus of food, climate and security
The topic of climate change with a security perspective was discussed during a high-level debate entitled “Food, Climate and Security: Joining Forces for a Safer Tomorrow” which was attended, amongst others, by the German Federal Minister of Agriculture Cem Özdemir, the Commissioner from the African Union (AU) Josefa Sacko, and Janet Maro, CEO of Sustainable Agriculture Tanzania (SAT). The discussion was moderated by Dr Michael Werz from the MSC.
The systemic link between food insecurity and conflict that increasingly affects agricultural production and commodity prices around the world was highlighted during the discussion that revealed that 70% of people suffering from hunger live in conflict areas and often also face the consequences of climate deregulation.
Nannette Cazaubon Deputy Editor-in-Chief
At the same time, food insecurity, exacerbated by climate shocks, frequently leads to social unrest, instability, and rivalry over scarce resources, which aggravates conflicts.
“If we want to have a stable world, we must make sure that everybody on this planet has access to adequate food.”
Cem Ödzdemir
Therefore, systemic approaches that consider long-term measures as well as short-term support in crisis situations are necessary. The importance of considering food security not only as a humanitarian issue but through the lenses of climate change as well as national and international security was also highlighted during the debate. The discussion strived to build bridges between sectors and perspectives, identify entry-points and develop joint approaches to the interlinked challenges posed by climate change, food insecurity, and conflict.
Video: https://bit.ly/3UPzY5L
Conference of agriculture ministers
The political highlight at the GFFA was the 16th Berlin Agriculture Ministers’ Conference in which 61 ministers from all around the world and 12 high-level representatives of international organisations took part. In their final communique, the ministers state that Russia’s illegal war of aggression against Ukraine had drastically increased hunger in the world. They commit to continuing the necessary transformation towards sustainable and consequently resilient agriculture and food systems and underline that this was the only way to make the right to adequate food a reality for everyone across the globe. They recognise that the climate and biodiversity crises have destabilised the world and affirm their support for agricultural practices and technologies that strengthen sustainable food production.
Web: https://bit.ly/3UORuHe
The energy-security nexus has become closely related
Climate technology urgently needs more investments
by Sinéad O'Sullivan, Research Fellow, US Center for Climate and Security, Washington D.C.
In an era marked by climate change challenges, early-stage technologies, especially those funded by venture capital, are driving technological innovation to enhance resiliency against its impacts.
Early-stage technologies that play a crucial role in the fight against climate change can be categorized into the following (1) Mitigation Tech, (2) Substitution Tech, (3) Reduction, (4) Adaptation Tech and (5) Risk Transfer Tech.
Further, as Climate Tech relates to defense and security, these innovations empower nations to align internal strategic interests along critical operations, supply chains and sovereign independence. The energy-security nexus has become increasingly closely related; climate change and defense are now inextricably linked in all geographies.
Falling investment levels
However, in an era of inherent instabilities within the global capital and financial markets, and where inflation and interest rates are driving investment theses, the capital to fund these urgent technologies is becoming more scarce.
In 2021, at the peak of high volumes of capital flowing into highrisk technology investments, around $120 billion was invested into Climate Tech over nearly 5,000 separate deals. This investment covered industries such as industrials, agriculture, mobility, energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) capture and storage.
Worryingly, however, the investment levels have fallen drastically today. In 2023, around $40 billion of Climate Tech investments were made over roughly 2,200 deals, representing a third of the total investment from its peak two years prior.
This can largely be attributed to a higher interest rate environment, during which it becomes increasingly expensive to deploy capital into infrastructure and other asset-heavy industries, such as Climate Tech.
This then begs the question – how should we finance such urgent and critical technologies, if not through venture capital and similar financial asset classes which are so sensitive to interest rate fluctuation?
“ Looking forward, it will be technologies that are still in the R&D stages that will transform our global economies and societies.”
A new approach is necessary
While Climate Tech and defense related investment opportunities are increasing as the markets for these technologies grows, instability in global capital markets is hindering the ability of investors to allocate capital to these sectors accordingly. At a time when investors are slowing their deployment into this space, an additional $2 trillion investment in Climate Tech innovation will be needed over the coming decade to effectively reduce global warming and to address emerging threats.
Until now, venture capital – the asset class which takes on the highest risk to generate the highest returns – has been a core focus for those seeking to scale technologies relating to climate and defense.
In the battery space, for example, global venture capital and private equity investments exceeded $7 billion in 2022 alone. However, while this represents a huge shift in the willingness of investors to deploy capital into traditionally very asset intense industries, this alone will not be enough to finance the technologies that will be needed beyond 2023.
Just as the technologies we will come to rely on must be novel and innovative to mitigate future climate and defense related risks, so too must the structure of the financing and investment classes that enable it. A renewed approach to public-private capital partnerships will be necessary to unlock the capital markets and to close the existing $2 trillion Climate Tech funding gap. The private sector alone cannot accomplish this; as we are seeing, a fresh approach to industrial policy is mobilizing private sector investment – the CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act being two such examples. Looking forward, it will be technologies that are still in the R&D stages that will transform our global economies and societies. It is imperative that we engage creatively and productively both the government and the private capital markets to enable this next wave of innovation growth. ■
Sinéad O'Sullivan is a Research Fellow at the US Center for Climate and Security. She is also a Senior Researcher at Harvard Business School and teaches at the Faculty of Aerospace Engineering of the Illinois Institute of Technology. She holds a master's of Aerospace Engineering from the Georgia Institute of Technology and a master's of Business Administration from Harvard Business School. Ms O’Sullivan’s work focuses on the intersection of technology, geopolitics and complexity science.
A concrete game-changing pathway led by PPRD Mediterranean
Unlocking the potential of space-based technologies for civil protection
by Philippe Geffroy, PPRD Med Team Leader/ISTC Senior Programme Manager, and Jean Muylaert, PPRD Med Deputy Team Leader/ISTC Expert for new technologies, Astana
PPRD Med (Prevention, Preparedness, Response to natural & man-made Disasters in the Southern & Eastern Mediterranean) is a European Commission (DG ECHO) led three-year programme that responds to the tailored needs and demands of civil protection and civil defence authorities from 10 countries in the eastern and southern Mediterranean (in alphabetical order): Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Palestine, and Tunisia.
This article focuses on one of the five pillars of PPRD Med, aiming at familiarising civil protection teams with the regular use of geospatial analytics using new tools and Geospatial Information Systems (GIS) to improve understanding of the factors that trigger crises for better early warning monitoring: this contributes to improving prevention, preparedness, and response processes. Using space data and GIS is a game-changer for civil protection and crisis management administrations in charge, implying the digitalisation of the crisis management processes.
What satellite imagery can offer
Satellite imagery offers accurate and reliable spatial information during emergencies, enabling effective prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery efforts. When ground-based data is limited, satellite imagery complements geospatial information on site (drone, helicopter, airplane).
In many ways, satellite imagery impacts disaster risk reduction, one of which is its role in the early detection of natural
hazards. When integrated with statistical data, geospatial imagery can also facilitate the identification of population concentrations, leading to more efficient evacuation strategies. During a disaster, crisis authorities rely on satellite images to accurately identify affected areas. After the devasting floods and dam breaks in Derna, Libya, in 2023, very highresolution (VHR) satellite data was used to locate gatherings of victims on shore, assess the road network, and provide a safe location for base camps and Emergency Management Teams (EMTs).
Furthermore, any disaster entails cascading effects that can undermine the response efforts of authorities and severely impair the resilience and recovery of local communities over time. For instance, severe drought conditions and prolonged heat waves can endanger human health and significantly stress vegetation, potentially leading to wildfires, reducing agriculture and food supplies for the population and livestock, with substantial socio-economic consequences.
Satellite images from the PPRD Med VIP beta Platform identifying a potential NATechs (natural-hazard triggered technological accidents) risk in the Mediterranean region
Evolving risks –the relevance of Earth observation
Recent improvements have shown that risks evolve as the environment, human pressure, and climate change over time. The resulting frameworks build upon the disaster risk management cycle by emphasising the process of reviewing and updating risk management actions. Such new frameworks are recognised as especially useful in addressing the specific problem of climate change, which involves a constant evolution of hazards, such as the more frequent and intense heat waves, drought, and storm surges.
The resulting “disaster risk continuum” schemes can be considered complementary to the disaster risk management cycle, as they provide a framework to constantly improve disaster risk management. For example, even for earthquakes, changes in exposure, ground deformation patterns, the retrofitting of the structures, and slight damage after an event modify the behaviour and vulnerability of the built environment. Hence, these new frameworks can be generalised to all types of risks that evolve due to urbanisation, the ageing of buildings and infrastructure such as dams, and changing human interventions, which collectively can be grouped together within the concept of “global change.”
For the space-based Earth observation sector, the value of the disaster risk management framework is to identify where satellite data can be useful within the civil protection's existing workflow, and these actions can be split into two categories:
• Actions and decisions relevant to the prevention of disaster risks with the main objective of minimising the impact of future disasters, both in terms of human lives and costs, which can be met in three ways: by reducing the hazard, where possible, the vulnerability of exposed assets or the exposure itself.
• Actions and decisions relevant to the preparedness, response, and recovery of disaster risks with the main objective being preparing for the management of the crisis. This requires pre-disaster information to forecast disasters to deliver appropriate alerts, save lives and provide immediate assistance, minimise the impacts, and to progressively restore activities and services during and after the crisis. Users will, for example, test their procedures against predefined disaster risk scenarios before the crisis, which requires pre-disaster knowledge of the hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. During the crisis, other information, such as displacement and disaster damage maps, is required. This illustrates that workflows within disaster risk management involve different procedures, constraints, and needs depending on the positioning of each stakeholder concerning the disaster management cycle. Specifically, the time constraint is critical during the preparedness, response, and recovery phases, whereas prevention is less constrained by time but is often more constrained by limited resources.
The fourth pillar of PPRD Med
After nine months of inception, a common agreement was found on implementing satellite imagery to enrich the crisis management process for Civil Protection Directorates in each country
participating in PPRD Med, despite a lack of connection between space agencies when they exist and land civil protection organisations. It was decided to begin the implementation phase with country-tailored roadmaps. A major activity was implemented, relating to the acquisition of skills for the collection and processing of satellite data from the Copernicus programme for specific scenarios based on flood event crises with a cascade effect for five countries.
The PPRD Med Objectives 2024 will be presented individually through the three-level PPRD Med digital platform. A full knowledge transfer programme using a learning management system (LMS) is being established at level two, namely the “didactic”
“ Satellite imagery offers accurate and reliable spatial information during emergencies.”
level. In addition to training for the creation of a digital map from satellite data by country teams, the PPRD Med team will also set up and train the country teams on AI-based algorithms, simulation and modelling applications for scenarios, and monitoring early warning systems (EWS). Moreover, specific software tools for natural-hazard triggered technological accidents (NATech) risks will be developed later in tier three of the project. Level three will use the PPRD Med Visual Intelligence Platform for crisis management and has yet to be defined so far during the project's third year.
Once the first learning phase of the five pilot countries is completed in June 2024, the next challenge will be the transfer of these digital value-added analytics into the existing paper-based documents. Obviously, the digitalisation of the processes will enable it to reach the level of a Decision Support System for Crisis Management (D2SCM) sooner or later. Implementing a digitised system that provides reliable information on potential emergency situations and their causes, with automated control for early prediction, is groundbreaking but not technically challenging. The primary challenge lies in organising and digitising data exchanges across administrations using a unified Geographic Information System for Civil Protection (GISCP).
The most daunting challenge, however, is internal and organisational. It involves aligning risk managers, data analysts, IT teams, and early responders to transition from traditional paper-based manuals to a digital, interactive, and dynamic crisis management system. Digitising crisis management processes is pivotal for success.
Pillar 4 of the PPRD Med focuses on this, aiming to identify and address operational challenges through pilot projects and closely collaborate with country teams to devise solutions and propose a suitable path forward. ■
This article uses the following complementary source: Space-Based Earth Observations for Disaster Risk. Survey in Geophysics (2020) info@brgm.fr
www.pprdmed.eu
Combatting the dramatic impact of organised environmental crime
The PERIVALLON project
by Eduardo Villamor Medina, Project Manager, ETRA, Valencia
Organised environmental crime and related criminal groups are mostly silent predators, despite being the third most lucrative criminal business in the world. Its transnational dimension, involving legal and illegal businesses from multiple countries within the entire waste-processing chain, the large range of waste products as well as the limited financial and human resources allocated to law enforcement make it a high-profitlow-risk crime. Moreover, the unmet need for court-proof remote evidence collection and disparities in legal and judicial administration weaken the prosecution’s work. Illegal trafficking of waste across EU borders, such as waste from electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE), as well as illegal disposal of waste on our land and water are some examples of criminal activities in the area.
Devasting impacts on society
Consequences involve devastating impacts on society at different levels, from harming the health of individuals, distorting market opportunities for legitimate business, reducing the quality of life of inhabitants of towns and cities where pollutants and waste are discarded, to the destruction of natural habitats and contamination of drinking water, as well as long term impacts on climate change. The latter include the disturbance of the ecological balance and faster depletion of natural resources. Furthermore, the embedded links to wider organised crime networks and the illegitimate use of proceeds of crime leads to further societal concerns related to the trafficking of drugs, weapons, human beings, and corruption across both businesses and public organisations.
“ The project aims to improve the intelligence picture of organised environmental crime.”
is a Project Manager at ETRA, a leading Spanish industrial group. Based in Valencia, he works on EU-funded R&D projects addressing the most critical security threats in the Union and leading the development of innovative products for public authorities and critical infrastructure operators. He has participated as Project Manager in PERIVALLON, SAFETY4RAILS and ASSISTANCE, being the author of peer-reviewed articles in the areas of machine learning, resilience, and security informatics in law enforcement.
As reported by INTERPOL, environmental crime has become the largest source of financing for non-state armed groups and is used to sustain their engagement in conflict.
Innovations for early detection and improved investigation
PERIVALLON is a Horizon Europe co-funded Innovation Action project, entitled “Protecting the European territory from organised environmental crime through intelligent threat detections tools”. The project aims to improve the intelligence picture of organised environmental crime and unlock new capacities for Environmental Agencies, Police Authorities and Border Guards. These challenges will be addressed by establishing an Environmental Crime Observatory; providing a comprehensive understanding of the scale, scope and impact of organised environmental crime on society; and developing an environmental crime detection and forensics investigation platform at the forefront of technological innovation.
The PERIVALLON platform integrates a collection of components to a single-entry point that exploits the latest advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the fields of geospatial intelligence, remote sensing, online monitoring, and multimodal analytics. These technological components will enable new capabilities such as the automatic detection of waste disposal and pollutants on land and water based on satellite imagery, optimal inspection and characterisation of sites of interest based on imagery captured by (swarms of) Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), maritime routes prediction, or online marketplaces multimedia analytics.
Fighting environmental crime together
By means of extensive training, hands-on experience and joint exercises, the capacities of police authorities, border guards, and national and regional authorities will be improved. The PERIVALLON capabilities will be validated in four transnational operational demonstrations, including one EU agency, as well as authorities from Italy, Greece, Belgium, Sweden, Romania, and Moldova. The project contributes to the achievement of the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, and particularly Sustainable Development Goals 3, 13, 14, 15 and 16. Furthermore, it is aligned with the agreement reached by the Council and European Parliament on a proposed new EU law on environmental crime and is expected to significantly contribute to its implementation.
https://perivallon-he.eu/
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101073952. Views and opinions expressed are, however, those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Research Executive Agency (REA). Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.
SECURITY AND DEFENCE
The question of how Europe should defend itself was no longer relevant after the failure of the European Defence Community project in 1954, as NATO took over this task. But times have changed. With aggressive dictator Putin dreaming of restoring the Soviet Union on the one hand and right wing radical populist Donald Trump, not unlikely to be re-elected US President on the other, the EU Member States are starting to realise that they must join forces to assume their common defence. Easier said than done
We can no longer afford the luxury of duplication or working in isolation
Deepening European defence cooperation
Interview with Jiří Šedivý, Chief Executive of the European Defence Agency (EDA), Brussels
Hartmut Bühl: Mr Šedivý, EU governance is complex, especially when it comes to security and defence. Is there a shared understanding in the European Union (EU) institutions of the strategic priorities for a European security and defence architecture?
Jiří Šedivý: Yes, there is a committed community working together on the governance and architecture of defence cooperation in Europe. It may seem complex, but there is a clear division of labour, from NATO as the cornerstone of our collective defence through to the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). The European Commission, via the EU budget, runs the European Defence Fund (EDF), which supports collaborative defence research and the competitiveness of the European Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB). An example of how we work together is EDA’s role in managing several EDF projects, such as a €20mn research initiative involving Leonardo and 11 Member States. It is about developing advanced radar technology in Europe for our armed forces.
H. Bühl: How will the Commission’s upcoming European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS) fit in to this existing structure?
J. Šedivý: EDIS could be – as the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said at the EDA’s 2023 annual conference – a game-changer for competitiveness and a contribution to the ramping-up of the European defence industry.
H. Bühl: There is an overlap of the EU’s Strategic Compass with NATO’s Strategic Concept in many fields. How do you manage to use common conceptual approaches to strengthen relationships and reinforce European defence?
J. Šedivý: We have a single set of forces, for NATO, for EU defence cooperation and missions, the United Nations and for national roles. At EDA we respect coherence with NATO. Once Sweden joins NATO, 22 EU Member States will also be NATO allies. When the Strategic Compass was defined and when we worked on the revision of the Capability Development Plan (CDP) – of which the 2023 Capability Development Priorities are the most tangible outcome – we at EDA factored in NATO’s Political Guidance. That guidance is part of the planning cycle of the NATO Defence Policy and Planning (NDPP) process. NATO, EDA and our partners in the European Union Military Staff (EUMS) see ever more clearly the need to work towards the same goal: the readiness of our forces for a wide spectrum of operational scenarios.
H. Bühl: What about gaps in EU Member States?
J. Šedivý: We want to help countries deal with gaps and make improvements, as NATO does. Both NATO and the CDP seek to support the military by agreeing on collective operational requirements, but the CDP also focuses on long-term trends, future technologies and lessons learned from opera -
Jiří Šedivý (left) and Hartmut Bühl meeting in Brussels, 21 February 2024
tions, including those observed from the war in Ukraine. So, we are reinforcing the defence of Europe, and we must be prepared for a time when the United States might be engaged elsewhere.
H. Bühl: How has EDA developed since its foundation in 2004 and what has the war in Ukraine changed for the agency?
J. Šedivý: EDA is celebrating its 20th anniversary this year. So, our new efforts are building on solid foundations. EU Member States can no longer afford the luxury of duplication or working in isolation. Look how Denmark, for instance, joined EDA in March 2023. After Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, we see that EDA is more relevant than ever.
H. Bühl: Can you give an example?
J. Šedivý: An example is the joint procurement of 155mm ammunition. Seven EU Member States have placed orders with European industry through EDA’s fast-track joint procurement scheme for 155mm ammunition. We have a menu of 60 framework contracts, negotiated in just a few months by EDA, which allow Member States to place their orders jointly. This is for deliveries in 2024 and 2025, potentially totalling up to €1.5bn.
H. Bühl: This means that EDA today is an agency with permanent activities?
J. Šedivý: Yes, indeed. EDA has grown from a purely projectbased organisation to one with permanent activities such as the management of the EU’s defence review CARD, Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) and EDF projects. Consider our EDA Helicopter Training Programme, transferred in January 2024 to Portugal. Between 2009 and 2023, EDA exercises deployed over 340 helicopters, 2,325 aircrew and over 15,000 military personnel. 1,050 aircrew from 20 different countries have graduated from the EDA Helicopter Tactics Course.
H. Bühl: Besides EU Member States, who can participate in EDA activities?
J. Šedivý: A pre-requisite for third parties to take part in EDA projects and programmes are so-called Administrative Arrangements (AA). We have AAs with the US, Norway, Switzerland, Serbia and Ukraine as well as the European Space Agency (ESA) and OCCAR. Cooperation with third parties in the EDA framework translates into tangible collaborative activities, contributing to Member States’ defence capability development and EU objectives in security and defence.
H. Bühl: The EDTIB is seen as cornerstone for defence capabilities and securing a certain strategic autonomy, at least in some fields. Has the establishment of defence initiatives at EU-level been a success and what initiatives have been launched?
J. Šedivý: EDA plays an important support and implementation role in all EU defence initiatives. Tools such as the CDP, CARD, PESCO and EDF are designed to raise the EU’s level of ambition. CARD was launched by Member States in May 2017; PESCO was established in December 2017 and currently 68 PESCO projects are under development. The EDF has an €8bn
budget for the 2021-2027 period. In the 2023 programme, the fund is providing €1.2bn for defence research, development and innovation through its calls for proposals.
H. Bühl: And why has EDA called for greater access to financing for the EDTIB?
J. Šedivý: Because EDA is part of high-level efforts to raise awareness about the need to support defence companies, while respecting Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) criteria. Without security, we cannot have sustainability.
H. Bühl: That brings me to the key issue of green defence. How is EDA involved in the EU’s actions to combat climate change?
J. Šedivý: EDA and the European Commission's Directorate General for Energy (DG ENER), as well as NATO, are all participating in efforts to develop green defence and involve the military in the EU’s actions to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. We are developing energy sector engagement for defence. The Consultation Forum for Sustainable Energy in the Defence and Security Sector (CF SEDSS) is a European Commission initiative managed by EDA to help EU ministries of defence move towards green, resilient, and efficient energy models. EDA is also delivering greater circularity in European defence through the Incubation Forum for Circular Economy in European Defence (IFCEED).
“ We want to help countries deal with gaps and make improvements, as NATO does.”
H. Bühl: In her speech to EDA in November 2023, Commission President von der Leyen asked you to identify flagship capabilities of common interest at European level. What are the areas of such capabilities?
J. Šedivý: The 2023 EU Capability Development Priorities developed by EDA with the EUMS reflect the changes in the EU’s strategic environment, political guidance provided by the Strategic Compass and lessons learned from Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Capabilities cover a broad operational perspective. Let me name a few: full spectrum cyber defence operations capabilities, ground combat capabilities, future soldier systems, air combat platforms and weapons, space operations and services and underwater and seabed warfare capabilities, as well as strategic enablers such as Electro Magnetic Spectrum Operations (EMSO) dominance, military mobility and logistics.
H. Bühl: Thank-you Mr Šedivý for this conversation. My congratulations for the dynamism and progress of your agency over the last three years. ■
2023 EU Capability Development Priorities: https://bit.ly/3T8H441
Leopard 2 A6 tank during a NATO exercise in Lithuania, October 2022
The Union must follow the concept of realpolitik
The headache of European defence
by Hartmut Bühl, Paris
It is time to face up to the fact that arrangements that have governed European security and defence policy for decades – with the US as the “security provider” guaranteeing nuclear protection and the Europeans as “security consumers” – no longer work.
The reflex of standing up to the Americans is no longer fashionable in the current, more complex, geopolitical situation and at a time when a former US president, who could be re-elected, invites the Russian dictator to prey on those NATO member countries that are not spending enough on their defence. Consequently, the Union must adopt a policy of realpolitik based on the current state of geopolitics and geostrategy. However, this is easier said than done.
A Europe of defence – what configuration?
What could a Europe of defence, with greater responsibilities and a better organisation of its military resources, as stipulated in the 2022 Strategic Compass, look like? Would it be a Union in its current configuration where each Member State has its say on security and defence? Or a Union organised as a federal state, with a constitution, a presidency, a council of ministers, common legislation and last but not least, a military commander-in-chief?
No chance that this latter option will see the light of day soon, which also rules out the utopia of an integrated European army.
Between dreams...
Those who advocate for such an integrated army and argue that it will solve the problems of duplication and dependence on the US and NATO, may not see all the practical difficulties behind this appealing concept.
Firstly, such a European army under the Union’s command and control would need a military and civil organisation at EU level as well as in each of the 27 Member States. It would also mean a European budget with cost sharing under European control, harmonised jurisdictions and common principles of leadership.
Secondly, as regards armament and equipment, it would be necessary to embark on a long process of unified planning for weapons and equipment, training and exercises so as to achieve interoperability. That would at least be feasible, but only in a long-term perspective.
Thirdly, it would be the necessary to find solutions to employment issues including staff careers, salaries, pensions and of course the problems of religions, traditions, participation etc. Everyone who has been involved in a leading position or commanded a multinational unit knows that this is a daunting challenge!
Fourthly, each politico-military decision taken at EU or national level concerning international organisations such as the UN, OSCE, etc. would have to be approved by both the EU and each member state.
Do we really have the will and the time to create such an army?
...and pragmatic solutions
Let’s have a brief look back at ambitious multinational forces projects. The Treaty on the Franco-German army corps (later the Eurocorps) was signed in La Rochelle on 21 May 1992 after four months of intense and emotional negotiations. The agreement was struck in a spirit of compromise by combining different command and work cultures and became the model for all the subsequent multinational units in Europe, such as the German-Dutch corps, the Baltic corps with Germany, Denmark and Poland, the Portuguese-Spanish-Italian division, EUROFOR, to mention only the land forces. At a later stage, non-standing naval (e.g. EUROMARFOR) and air units (e.g. the European Air Group, EAG) were launched.
The first important lesson from the experience of Eurocorps was not to mix units from different nations at too low a level, to respect culture and tradition, understand and respect disciplinary systems and encourage the troops to socialise in training seminars.
To me therefore it seems wiser, rather than dreaming of an integrated European army, to strive for a fully-fledged European defence alliance with multinational units in different configurations. There would be civil-military headquarters at EU level and operational headquarters commanding all types of members states’ forces and existing multinational units on land, sea and in the air.
“ In view of the current geopolitical and geostrategic situation, Europe must conduct a realpolitik and stop dreaming of a European army.”
A nuclear force for Europe?
With the effective start of Brexit on 31 January 2020, France is now the only EU member state that has nuclear capabilities and is a member of the UN Security Council. Against the background of the current tense geopolitical situation, the nuclear threat from Russia and the uncertainty regarding American nuclear protection in the future, there are discussions about whether the Union needs to own and be able to operate nuclear weapons or whether France is able to guarantee the protection of the Union with its powerful and deliberately limited national deterrence capabilities. This issue needs clarification.
De Gaulle’s doctrine is still valid
First of all, it is important to note that French President Emanuel Macron remains faithful to General de Gaulle’s doctrine of nuclear “non-participation”. Macron clearly stated on 7 February 2020 at the Ecole Militaire in Paris that French nucle -
ar weapons cannot be shared. They are not battlefield weapons and only have one purpose: to deter in order to avert war. The credibility of the French nuclear strategy depends on the unacceptable nature of the damage that a possible aggressor would suffer. However, during the same speech, Macron spoke in favour of a strong and autonomous defence of Europe, in which “France must take its responsibilities and play its role”. French vital interests now have a “European dimension” Macron said, and he invited his European partners “to participate in an in-depth strategic dialogue and joint exercises on deterrence”, with a view to greater strategic autonomy for Europe.
Since then, Russia has attacked Ukraine, threatened Europe with its nuclear weapons and Europeans have woken up to the uncomfortable reality that US nuclear protection can no longer be taken for granted.
Let’s stay rational
Against the background of current geopolitical realities, nuclear protection as a condition “sine qua non” for Europe’s security will continue to be the main issue for discussion. However, nuclear forces under the control of the EU will remain a flight of fancy, similar to the “European army”. As regards French nuclear armaments, an official and written extension would even reduce the credibility of French deterrence. For me there can be no question that the decision to use nuclear weapons will remain French. And I would add that the Union will not imitate NATO’s Nuclear Planning Group (NPG), a sort of college which discusses a nuclear response, especially first use, and takes decisions unanimously. So, let’s stay rational. Despite bad omens, the American nuclear umbrella is still valid and French deterrence is a complement to it, as it always was. It is only if the US were to leave NATO that the situation would really change!
Conclusion
In view of the current geopolitical and geostrategic situation, Europe must conduct a realpolitik and stop dreaming of a European army. Instead, it must devote its energy to a policy of building up the necessary military capabilities to defend its territory and that of its allies as well as producing state-of-theart armaments by pooling its Member States’ capabilities. In the field of nuclear protection, although Macron has proposed a strategic dialogue on the subject, there has never been any question of "pooling" the French nuclear deterrent.
However, I am convinced that the nuclear capacity of France, as a Member of the Union, is, in itself, dissuasive and protects the Union by its simple existence – which is a sort of tacit extension! ■
The author has been publishing articles on the French nuclear strategy since 1974. In 1992 he led German’s team in negotiations with France on the build-up of the future multinational Eurocorps and subsequently was the German official responsible for opening the headquarters in Strasbourg before becoming Deputy Chief of Staff Operations (DCOS) of Eurocorps (1994-1996).
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The need to appoint an ombudsman for French-German armaments cooperation!
Franco-German relations remain a “must” for European defence
Interview with Denis Verret, former Senior Vice-President of EADS (now Airbus) and member of the Council of EuroDéfense-France, Paris, and Colonel (ret.)
Ralph Thiele, Managing Director StratByrd Consulting and President of EuroDéfense-Germany, Berlin
The European: Gentlemen, in November 2023 you published a joint article in the French newspaper La Tribune in which you wrote that Franco-German defence cooperation is a “must” and that it should be open to other EU Member States. You called the European ambition for strategic autonomy a necessary contribution to global security. What exactly does strategic autonomy mean?
Denis Verret: It means that Europe must express its own views and protect its own interests in the world without naivety and over-dependence. This ambition has been formally expressed in the EU’s Strategic Compass, adopted unanimously in March 2022, following the Versailles Declaration a few days earlier: “A stronger and more capable EU in the field of security and defence will contribute positively to global and transatlantic security and is complementary to NATO, which remains the foundation of collective defence of its members.” This was already stated by US President Biden and French President Macron in a joint declaration in March 2021.
Ralph Thiele: The EU has so far lacked significant ambitions and capabilities commensurate with its interests and responsibilities in Europe and beyond. Vis-à-vis increasingly unstable and threatening geopolitical developments, strategic autonomy is urgently needed to strengthen the EU’s role as a security provider, capable of addressing regional and global security challenges alone or with partners such as NATO.
The European: What does this imply?
R. Thiele: The EU must possess its own powerful capabilities to design, plan and conduct politico-military missions from the tactical to the strategic in order to influence opponents’ decision-making. This implies a particular focus on strengthening Europe's Defence Industrial and Technological Base (EDTIB) to reduce dependence on non-European suppliers, especially in critical areas such as advanced technologies.
The European: Let’s come back to the Franco-German defence cooperation that you called a ”must”. Isn’t this cooperation continuously overshadowed by a kind of mistrust, particularly in the sensitive field of armaments cooperation?
R. Thiele: From the point of view of industrial interests, each side is indeed suspicious that the other wants more for itself and less for the partner and is trying to take undue advantage of the partnership.
The European: But what is the prerequisite for fruitful cooperation in such a sensitive sector like armaments?
D. Verret: First of all, high-level political agreements, well prepared with industry, and the observance of full equality between the French and German industrial partners in terms of volume and technological value.
The European: Is this the case for the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) and the Main Ground Combat System (MGCS)?
D. Verret: Yes, decisions on air and ground systems of the future were taken at the highest political level and with the full support of the Chiefs of Defence (CHODS) of both our countries.
R. Thiele: However, political and technological obstacles continue to surface, which is quite normal in such ambitious projects, and it is also normal that they give rise to debate.
D. Verret: But when these become public, the press focuses more on disagreements than agreements. In my opinion, bashing has become systematic!
From left to right: Denis Verret, Hartmut Bühl and Ralph Thiele during their discussion in Berlin
The European: Is this a question of communication?
D. Verret: Indeed, Berlin and Paris need to do a better job of communicating successful steps in cooperation through the media and social networks.
R. Thiele: I agree, proper communication through the media and social networks is important because if only negative comments and bashing dominate public debate, it will be harder to achieve a positive outcome for our respective efforts.
The European: So, you are pleading for a more closely aligned defence and security strategy?
R. Thiele: Yes, and we need more comprehensive, concrete joint proposals to meet common operational requirements, ensure real military operational capability and master the critical technologies of today and tomorrow.
D. Verret: We are both convinced that we need a joint white paper on security and defence, in which we commit ourselves to advances in governmental and industrial cooperation to match common and respective priorities. Cooperation is a prerequisite for critical mass!
“ We are both convinced that we need a joint white paper on security and defence.”
Denis Verret
The European: And what about exports? Is that not another prerequisite?
R. Thiele: Export control policy is an attribute of national sovereignty, within the framework of relevant common templates such as the Common Position, regularly updated by the European Council. To develop joint programmes, we need our policies to converge, because critical mass can only be achieved by both cooperation and exports.
D. Verret: That’s why, after decades of positive experience with the bilateral Schmidt-Debré agreement, our two nations signed a new agreement in November 2019. It is more comprehensive,
Colonel (ret.) Ralph Thiele is President of the independent initiative EuroDéfense Deutschland e.V., Chairman of the PolitischMilitärische Gesellschaft e.V. and Managing Director of StratByrd Consulting. In his earlier military career, Colonel Thiele held senior positions in national and international security and military policy, planning and academia, including on the Planning Staff of the German Minister of Defence, as Commander of the German Armed Forces Transformation Centre and as Director of Education at the German Armed Forces Staff College.
Denis Verret is a former civil servant, who was Deputy Diplomatic Advisor to the French Prime Minister, Laurent Fabius. He then joined industry, notably Aérospatiale, as head of International Affairs and member of its Executive Committee. He was later appointed Senior Vice-President (Political Affairs and International Coordination) of EADS and then became an international consultant and President of DV Conseil. He is a member of the Council of EuroDéfense-France.
“ We need more comprehensive, concrete joint proposals to meet common operational requirements.”
Ralph Thiele
covering not only cooperative governmental programmes but also industrial cooperation and “de minimis” rules for streamlining cross-border supply chains. The excellent news is that this agreement has been extended to Spain in 2022 and that the UK, the Netherlands and Italy are now expressing their interest in joining too.
R. Thiele: Let me add that programmes must promote consolidation and be followed by integration through Centres of Excellence (CoE) fairly distributed among the parties. In terms of communication, there must be a greater room for agreements reached by simple consensus or joint performance!
The European: Can you name positive or negative examples?
D. Verret: A recent success is the Multi Role Tanker Transport (MRTT) in Canada, which proves that the European solution is the best in class, basically due to the consolidation in military transport aircraft, but this is also true of helicopters, satellites or tactical missiles.
R. Thiele: We both insist that even an agreement which has been difficult to arrive at must not be concealed. Hiding away the results of a common understanding can only weaken it.
The European: Is this also true for “no goes” such as the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI), where Berlin seems to have forgotten to invite France to join?
R. Thiele: Indeed, Paris is not in the programme – yet. And of course, there should have been better communication with Paris.
D. Verret: Let me add that it is essential to review this project in order to bring it into line with NATO planning, to take fuller account of the diversity of threats and possible operational and interoperable defensive and offensive responses and to unlock long-term European alternatives to German, American and Israeli solutions.
R. Thiele: And, to conclude on the communication dimension of Franco-German relations, if there is an apparent deadlock on a particular issue, then we need to be honest about it, make it public and show that we are determined to do everything possible to overcome it.
The European: By systematic dialogue, person to person, at each level? And if that is not enough?
D. Verret: We are both suggesting to our respective governments that they consider appointing a German and a French "ombudsman for defence industrial cooperation”, somebody from civil society, whose task would be to monitor the development of bilateral defence relations and alert the highest authorities in case of serious difficulties.
The European: Gentlemen, I thank you and wish you every success in your future endeavours. ■
The 19th NATO Life Cycle Management Conference
“The NATO LCM Conference is the only place in the world where you can meet people discussing life cycle management” – Conference delegate, 2024
by Jørgen Bo Leimand, Naestved
The 19th NATO Life Cycle Management Conference (LCM) took place in Brussels on 23-24 January 2024. The conference was attended by more than hundred delegates coming from more than eighteen nations. When you see those figures, you might wonder how can they do this? The LCM community is based on several different actors which I will try to describe in the following before giving an overview of the conference this year.
There are three important pillars that support LCM. First there is the NATO Main Group (MG) AC/327. From the very beginning, this group has taken LCM on board and used ISO 15288 as the basic document for the work in the MG. The MG has established several Working Groups (WGs), and it is the work of those WGs that produce all NATO LCM documents to be used by NATO as well as industry, if the industry wants to eligible for defence contracts. WG members work on a voluntary basis in their free time, they are not paid by any for doing this work. It is due to the nations willing to support their meetings in Brussels, that the work is done.
The second pillar is industry, represented by the NATO Industrial Advisory Group (NIAG) and by the NIAG Industrial Interface Group (NIIG). It is vital to maintain a close relationship between government representatives and industry. In a rapidly changing world, it is deeply important that both parties are kept up to date on the evolution of various facets, especially with regard to the IT domain. This requires mutual trust.
The third pillar is Mittler Report. From the very beginning of the NATO LCM programme, and after the North Atlantic Council (NAC) endorsed LCM to be used by NATO and the agencies in 2005, Mittler Report proposed that it, together with the MG AC/327, should be responsible for establishing a NATO LCM conference. However, it was Mittler Report who took the risk as none of the players in the LCM community had any idea of whether or not the endeavour would succeed. The 2024 conference convincingly demonstrated that the decision taken in 2006 was the right one.
The 2024 conference was organized in four blocks. The first block concentrated on the LCM business in relation to NATO. A speaker from the NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA) gave an overview of how LCM was an integral part of the In-service Support (ISS), Supply Chain Management, Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul, Engineering Services, Technical Documentation (interactive), and Disposal. Then, a speaker from the NATO Defence Investment Division highlighted the NATO Policy for Systems Life Cycle Management, C-M(2005)0108, and stated that it is NATO policy that Nations and NATO Authorities apply the principles of systems life cycle management as laid out in the policy document. Finally, a speaker from NIAG and NIIG explained how they provide industrial liaison to AC/327 LCMG, industrial advice, viewpoints, and expertise, as required. The second block was kicked off by a speaker from Leonardo outlining the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in relation to condition-based maintenance and predictive maintenance. This was followed by a Systecon speaker explaining how machine learning strengthens the LCM-analysis toolbox. Later, a Millog Oy representative discussed the use of AI in incident management benefits from data analytics to anticipate and prevent possible software defects or problems before they occur. The final speaker was from Contextere, and highlighted that despite automation, digitisation, and predictive planning initiatives, the reality is that industrial workers make ‘minute to minute’ decisions that impact productivity, safety, and ultimately cost. In the third block, an NSPA representative explained the major LCM activities performed by the NSPA in support of different categories of UAV systems, as well as the challenges related to each system. Then a presenter explained how to meld advanced analytics, machine learning, and intuitive AI tools making them accessible actionable for the users. It was followed by a presen-
tation (Raytheon EAGLE) on how an integrated support plan can deliver speed through additive manufacturing. This block was closed by a presentation from MBDA and TÜBITAK BILGEM about the scientific approach to reliability in product design by using the advantages of performing reliability tests and use of physics of failure models to understand failures.
The fourth and final block focused on the use of vehicles. A speaker from Trout Gmbh outlined how their use in challenging scenarios, such as navigating in rugged terrain, can result in various issues. Sensors are used to collect data and an AI process is used to ensure the availability of the vehicle and make life cycle costs easier to calculate. The last presentation came from a Roketsan representative, and suggested a framework to meticulously align product life cycle stages with project management phases, leveraging the adaptability of Disciplined Agile methodologies, and introduced a cross-functional dashboard to facilitate efficient product management. This presentation tied it altogether as business agility is the key to bridge Product Life Cycle and Project Management.
During the whole conference, four exhibitors were present, including Raytheon Intelligence & Space from the USA, Systecon from Sweden, TFD Europe Ltd. from the UK, and Patria ISP Oy from Finland.
Based on this participant’s experience, the conference was a laudable success. It was organised in a highly efficient manner, the selection of presenters and presentations were excellent, and last, but not least, the delegates were highly motivated, as seen in the lively Q&A sessions. ■
The 20th LCM conference will take place on 21-22 January 2025 in Brussels –don’t miss it!
Artificial intelligence: current state, development, challenges and risks
by Claude Roche, former Vice-President of the Academy of Air and Space, Paris
The official start of Artificial Intelligence (AI) goes back to the Dartmouth Conference (US) in 1956, with Marvin Minsky, John McCarthy and Claude Shannon, where the expression was first coined, at a time when computers were becoming more widespread.
At the outset, researchers' concerns were focused on machine learning, with game theory being applied, in particular, to chess, theorem proving, operational research, image processing, recognition of pictorial patterns and speech. Simultaneously, computing power was increasing considerably, and in 1997 the Deep Blue computer beat the world chess champion, G. Kasparov.
Since then, pattern recognition and symbolic AI have continued to merge and AI has taken off. Intellectuals, businesses and the media swear only by AI, predicting that in just a few decades, the machine will surpass man!
What is a pattern or a concept?
Patterns and concepts exist when there are facts that are not purely random and that relationships therefore exist with other patterns or concepts. The patterns and concepts then constitute an immense Russian nesting doll structure, the lowest level of which is the output of optical, acoustic or other sensors and showing total continuity for patterns, concepts, ideas, theories, etc. The whole provides a representation of the world outside man, a living being or a machine.
Pattern recognition and symbolic AI
• Pattern recognition studies the detection and description of patterns or concepts by machines to satisfy different societal or industrial needs.
• Symbolic AI studies how to solve problems based on these patterns or concepts, giving rise to particular programming difficulties.
Pattern recognition can be/is used in most symbolic systems as a means to choose between the “good choice” or the “bad choice” of patterns compared to the others. These systems or methods are nowadays called “hybrid AI”.
The functions of human intelligence: bijection between reality and memory
The aim of the two intelligences is to combine to obtain the best possible bijection between reality as humans apprehend it and the content of their memory, by allowing them to influence both. The medium for these functions is memory.
In the medium term, AI will only partially cover “life” intelligence (self-driving cars, household robots, security systems) and not “invention/creation” intelligence, except when this partially touches on intuition through deep learning.
“ Current AI developments are still mainly human-driven, with only a marginal and complementary input from machine learning.”
When the computer must make decisions alone and activates a life loop and when
1. the solution is defined entirely by a logical model: this is programming.
2. the problem cannot be solved by a rigorous solution or the computer cannot apply it fast enough, but it is desirable to find a solution acceptable in practice: this is artificial intelligence. While programming produces model errors and bugs, AI, in addition to bugs, always has a probability of error due to the absence of a rigorous model: GPS, voice and facial recognition, etc.
The
creation of AI, the logic of development
To create artificial intelligence, developers must, based on their intuition and knowledge of the problem, search, randomly or by deduction, for functions that can be assembled in multiple ways and evaluate these assemblies on a set of “learning data” representative of the phenomenon, and above all, repeat the process many times over. Finally, they must validate the result on other representative data and, if the performances are satisfactory, validate the resulting system in operation.
Today, there are numerous development experiences in extremely diverse fields, numerous ideas for methods and tools, such as those linked to big data and clouds, probability and correlation calculations with the use of statistics, graph paths with minimax, branch and bound, game theory, image and sound processing, deep learning, and all models with adequate processing power such as 2D, 3D, 4D, syntax and semantics for speaking and reading, etc.
The most important tool remains the intelligence of the individual researcher-developer who assembles all these bricks, on the principle of “trial and error” or “test and learn”. Indeed, current AI developments are still mainly human-driven, with only a marginal and complementary input from machine learning. And they only involve the “life loop” functions, and not yet by any means the symbolic intelligence of the “invention/ creation” loops.
Let us note in passing that this “trial and error” principle is also the basis of evolution: of the cosmos, the Earth, humanity and deep learning! And even, according to Stephen Hawking, of the Big Bang itself!
AI development issues
1. Basic risks due to the insufficient quality of developments
• The goals of the constructed system may not have been sufficiently well defined: either they are not complete, or the system might find itself in a situation where two goals are contradictory, like the “psychological” problem of the HAL machine from “2001: A Space Odyssey”.
• Training and testing data might not be representative of important exceptional situations.
• All AI systems have a non-zero error rate. Human beings have exactly the same faults!
2. Societal risks of developed systems
• Civil aviation requires a level of reliability that AI cannot possibly attain.
• Before the car accident, should the AI decide to kill other road users or the family in the car?
• What about autonomous military robots, when, according to the code of war, we have no right to seek to kill if we are not sure of our target?
• We demand perfection from a robot that we cannot prosecute in court.
All sensitive systems will take a lot of time and adaptation before they can be used, unlike other systems such as face recognition, language understanding, etc.
3. Man-machine interfaces
• Operational relationships between man and machine will have to adapt, in the same way that human pilots adapt to autopilots.
• Man-machine interfaces are not yet perfectly resolved. By introducing a third player, how will the system cope with three times as many interfaces?
• A huge number of simulations and time-consuming experiments will be necessary, with intense and multiple reflections.
Research to be carried out before unleashing strong AI
Strong AI will be a much bigger step than the one which has led to our current AI.
• Its memory will be many orders of magnitude greater than that of current AI,
• It will learn to learn and test its efficiency in view of better certification.
• It will invent and create, with the “invention/creation” loop that current AI does not have.
Getting there will take many decades of research, going much further than deep learning.
It will be necessary in particular to teach the machine to discover a new pattern or concept, by detecting in the observed universe that something is out of the ordinary and triggering a search to define what it is by symbolic representation. We will also use the recursion of operators: the methods for discovering patterns and concepts will themselves be based on concepts, which can be discovered using the same method.
It is then, and only then, that we will be able to imagine AI systems approaching human intelligence, whose functioning we will be able to formally represent and certify, whereas today even deep learning creates systems whose rigorous decision-making we cannot understand. We will thus have taught computers to learn intuition and rationality, both referred to as “spirits” by Blaise Pascal: the spirit of geometry and the spirit of finesse. ■
Claude Roche/Gérard Sabah: Intuition et rationalité –Leur symbiose chez l’humain et la machine, Les impliqués, 2023
Author/Title
Andersson, Jan Joel, Paris
Arnold, Gerhard, Würzburg Turkey’s new role and the Russia-Ukraine war
