Climate Change Report

Is this the moment before global environmental catastrophe?

“Right now, we are facing a man-made disaster of global scale. Our greatest threat in thousands of years. Climate change. If we don’t take action, the collapse of our civilisations and the extinction of much of our natural world is on the horizon.”

“Every extra bit of warming matters, especially since warming of 1.5°C or higher increases the risk associated with long-lasting or irreversible changes, such as the loss of some ecosystems.”

The UN body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says we have 12 years before we are likely to witness a cataclysmic decline in nature, unless we do more to dramatically change our methods. With an original aim to limit global temperature rise by 1.5°C increasingly looking like an unachievable target, what difference can each half degree rise make? If we’re heading toward a 2°C temperature rise, surely, it wouldn’t be the end of the world, would it?

By Richard Forsyth

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s part of the decision to adopt the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit climate change, the IPCC was invited to produce, in 2018, a Special Report on global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. It was arguably the most alarming report to date on our global climate change challenge.

It’s made serious, unflappable scientists display rare emotional outbursts, and stirred up a public outcry that has galvanised populations in campaigning and being selective in their consumer choices. The facts, as they come out, are giving most of us a glimpse of a path that could lead to our own eventual demise, and a great many of us, are frankly scared.

The science is not far-fetched, not alarmist for its own sake, nor is it, as President Trump once suggested, a Chinese conspiracy.

“With more than 6,000 scientific references cited and the dedicated contribution of thousands of expert and government reviewers worldwide, this important report testifies to the breadth and policy relevance of the IPCC,” said Hoesung Lee, Chair of the IPCC. In total, 91 authors and review editors from 40 countries prepared the report.

The report’s full name is Global Warming of 1.5°C, an IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial

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levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. It’s the first in a series of Special Reports to be produced in the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Cycle.

In October 2018, when the report was published, the news headlines could at last put a deadline for a tipping point, when it would be too late to reverse the damage, if we as a species failed to change our ways and continue to pump near to 40 billion tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere. It is estimated we have till 2030 before 1.5°C will be an unstoppable consequence of our industrial actions. There were hopes in recent years that global CO2 emissions were plateauing but 2018 is likely to be the highest recorded emissions spike on record – at 37.1 billion tonnes.

At 1.5°C the changes would be dramatic, for starters it would mean flooded lowlands, mass migration, increased poverty and inevitable deaths as land becomes uninhabitable.

With such a short time before it’s too late to stop escalation of global temperature, beyond this, if we continue with business as usual, a 2°C temperature rise will have exponentially shocking and devastating consequences for our world.

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So long coral reefs, and thanks for all the fish The details of the impacts of seemingly tiny rises in global temperature have rarely been exposed to be so desolating as in the latest report.

Impending biodiversity disasters are being highlighted.

“Every extra bit of warming matters, especially since warming of 1.5°C or higher increases the risk associated with long-lasting or irreversible changes, such as the loss of some ecosystems,” said HansOtto Pörtner, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group II. For instance, coral reefs would decline by 70-90 percent with global warming of 1.5°C, whereas virtually all (> 99 percent) would be lost with 2°C. The very real threat of the complete loss of coral reefs has been observable in the last few years, for example, a third of the Earth’s largest reef system, the Great Barrier Reef died off in the 2016 heat wave.

This one global environmental impact, of total destruction of reefs, is a game changer for nature as we know it.

Coral reefs harbour the most diverse marine ecosystems and provide nutrients for marine food chains. Around 25% of fish species spend part of their life in reefs. Coral reefs could be thought of as the rainforests of the ocean, in that they are ideal habitats for thousands of species of fish to co-exist as well as other marine animals.

These built up reefs also act as a wave buffer for coastal regions, beneficial during tropical storms as they reduce wave energy by up to 97%. One study estimated that if only the top metre of reefs were lost, annual flood damage would leap from $4 billion to $8 billion, affecting specifically Indonesia, the US, Philippines, Malaysia, Mexico, and Cuba with flooding damage every year.

Coral reefs produce more oxygen than carbon dioxide. As a benefit for humans, coral can be used as a calcium supplement to treat some chronic health problems. It has been estimated that we are up to 400 times more likely to find new drugs from coral reef ecosystems than

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land-based ones if they survive the next century. Around half a billion people also depend on reefs for food and employment.

Reef extinction would have a knock-on effect to societies that would be hard to miss.

And this is just one example of biodiversity being threatened to the point of destruction. Rich biodiversity is the lifeblood for a strong ecosystem where all the species play a part in the machine of the system – maintaining balance in species numbers, their impacts and contributions.

High biodiversity is the benchmark of a healthy planet. A strong ecosystem will generate the essential resources to nurture its component parts.

The more plant species there are means there will be higher variety of crops. The more animal species there are, means greater interplay of animals, plants and environment. Animals help fertilise land, pollinate plants, plants provide homes for creatures and species can live together in symbiotic systems, recycling each other naturally, for example, animals eat each other to manage over population, seeds are eaten from fruit on plants and are distributed in animal droppings, all to maintain natural balance in a system. Animals and plants effectively become gardeners and care takers of the wider environment. When ecosystems thin-out they eventually can crumble and die, and the environment becomes barren. If this were to be a world-wide phenomenon, eventually life itself would become unsustainable.

Extinction is a word well used in 2018. We are already confirmed to be in the midst of an accelerated extinction era. To understand how bad things are, in May 2019 the Intergovernmental SciencePolicy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) which compiled research from scientists representing 130 governments, will be presenting a global assessment on biodiversity and ecosystems and it’s going to be a bleak outlook. As the IPBES Chair, Sir Robert Watson said: “The loss of species, ecosystems and genetic diversity is already a

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global and generational threat to human well-being.”

Extreme impacts are predicted if we look ahead to a 2°C scenario.

The likelihood of an Arctic Ocean free of sea ice in summer would be once per century with global warming of 1.5°C but compare that to at least once per decade, with a 2°C rise. In summary, such a global temperature will dramatically affect sea level and the disappearance of many coastal areas underwater. The contrasts in impact for small global temperature rises are huge. The coastlines and borders of waterways would be overcome, for example, we would potentially lose 14 of the 17 largest cities in the world. Our maps would be redrawn, and our populations reorganised.

Is there a will?

The greatest problem is that serious political will is still a prerequisite for making potentially planet saving changes.

For this reason, the latest IPCC report was a rallying cry for the UN supported COP24 meeting held in Katowice in Poland in the closing days of 2018. It was a crucial gathering, to increase commitments for climate action, bolstering the previous international decisions for positive actions, that came out of the Paris accord.

Sir David Attenborough, the famous British naturalist spoke at the climate talks in Katowice, and didn’t pull his punches, stating: “Right now, we are facing a man-made disaster of global scale. Our greatest threat in thousands of years. Climate change. If we don’t take action, the collapse of our civilisations and the extinction of much of our natural world is on the horizon.”

To emphasise the urgency, UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, indicated climate change was ‘a matter of life and death’ for many countries.

In response, on 15 December 2018, 200 nation’s negotiators reached an agreement at COP24. In the spirit of the 2015 accord, countries set out to limit global warming to 2 °C above preindustrial levels by 2100, with a preferred target of 1.5 °C. Whilst goalposts are inevitably shifting there is still a fervent hope that damage can be limited and importantly the runaway acceleration of temperature rises can be stopped.

The challenge cannot be underestimated, as countries like China and India are seeing rising levels of CO2 emissions. The Trump era of US politics also plays down climate change concerns whilst ramping up reliance on coal. Trump declared in 2017 he would withdraw the US from the accord, fuelling fears for the rest of the world and our shared climate future.

There is also Brazil’s new far right President, Jair Bolsonaro, who is concerning environmentalists with his appetite for increasing exploitation and deforestation of the Amazon rain forest. Since the 1980s the Amazon has absorbed about 430 million tonnes of carbon a year. The Amazon is often called ‘the lungs of the world’.

The report was clear that it would require an unprecedented international effort, with many solutions reliant on technologies that are new and still being developed, and that the world has just over a decade to put a revolutionary coordinated strategy into action.

Factor these serious issues into the over-arching picture and a creeping pessimism is hard to fight.

“The decisions we make today are critical in ensuring a safe and sustainable world for everyone, both now and in the future,”

The 24th session of the COP24 Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC COP24) in Katowice. Credit: C cop24.gov.pl.

What do we need to do?

The report examines pathways available to limit warming to 1.5°C, what it would take to achieve them and what the consequences could be. “The good news is that some of the kinds of actions that would be needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C are already underway around the world, but they would need to accelerate,” said Valerie MassonDelmotte, Co-Chair of Working Group I. The report finds that limiting global warming to 1.5°C would require “rapid and far-reaching” transitions in land, energy, industry, buildings, transport, and cities. Global net human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide would need to fall by about 45 percent from 2010 levels by 2030, reaching ‘net zero’ around 2050. This means that any remaining emissions would need to be balanced by removing CO2 from the air.

Science, as usual is in the front lines with the fight, innovating and discovering new ways to combat some of the challenges. Take one example – relating back to the prediction that we are on course to lose the world’s coral reefs. A technique called micro fragmenting was discovered – by accident – by US scientist Dr David Vaughan that allowed coral to grow 40 times faster than in the wild. Instead of up to 75 years to grow to maturity the technique means coral can grow to maturity in three years.

Many countries are making huge leaps and bounds with renewable energy. Costa Rica has a 98% reliance on non-fossil fuel sources.

Sweden is aiming for 2040 as the year it will rely on 100 percent renewable energy. The UK wants to shut down its last coal-fuelled

plant by 2025. Morocco, Cyprus, Denmark, France and Scotland are all making headlines for their progress in sustainability, weaning off fossil fuels. In addition, industries such as electric transport are making progress in a transition from fringe to mainstream.

As an incentive, The World Bank has stated it will supply funding of around $200 billion over five years to support countries taking action against climate change.

Time is the real issue in all of this, because it’s widely believed that it’s the action within the next two years that is going to make the difference.

The report does acknowledge that beyond simple government policies it is also a wider action from ‘societal choices’ that will define what happens in the near future to our emissions output. ‘Everyone’ needs to be onboard for a change of this magnitude.

Undeniably, slashing global emissions in half by 2030 is a big ask. The awareness and belief of the problem is only the start of what is needed.

Can we turn our collective fate around? It would be unprecedented, if so. One thing is for sure, we’ll know the answer soon as the countdown for climate impact being too late to reverse, is in the closing stages.

“The decisions we make today are critical in ensuring a safe and sustainable world for everyone, both now and in the future”, said Debra Roberts, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group II. “This report gives policymakers and practitioners the information they need to make decisions that tackle climate change while considering local context and people’s needs. The next few years are probably the most important in our history,” she added.

http: //www.ipcc.ch /report /sr15/ 30

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