Short-term sentence, long-term effects? Short-term prison sentences are commonly imposed for certain types of crimes, while other offenders may receive a non-custodial sanction like community service. What is the effect of short-term imprisonment on criminal behaviour? Does it lead to reduced rates of re-offending? These questions are at the core of Professor Hilde Wermink’s research. A significant proportion of the prison population in the Netherlands has been sentenced to less than a year behind bars. While these short-term prison sentences are fairly common in various sentencing contexts, little is known about the effects of imprisonment on the individual concerned and its impact on the subsequent trajectory of their lives, a topic Hilde Wermink, Associate Professor of Criminology at Leiden University, is exploring in a project funded by the Dutch Research Council (NWO). “I focus on the impact of short-term prison sentences on rates of repeat offending, on recidivism,” she outlines. This has been a prominent topic in the criminology field for many decades, yet it has proved difficult to assess the impact of short-term imprisonment on recidivism rates in comparison to non-custodial sanctions like community service. “There have been many studies, but they have tended to be based on using methods like regression-based analysis or matching studies, and few of these studies
meet the mark of scientific rigor that would justify drawing substantive conclusions regarding the effects of imprisonment,” says Professor Wermink.
Short-term prison sentences By using new methods to analyse a dataset with information on more than a million cases, Professor Wermink aims to shed new light on the impact of short-term prison sentences. The dataset itself holds information on individuals sentenced to prison terms of less than a year in 2012, as well as on those who received a non-custodial sanction. “We have data on individuals with their full criminal history, as well as data about their criminal activity after 2012. We can then study the effects of this custodial sanction,” explains Professor Wermink. The project team brings together researchers from several different disciplines, including economics, sociology and criminology, with Professor Wermink seeking to gain deeper insights from the data.
“We are looking to see whether we can use an instrument called judge IV (instrumental variable). We are using data from the Ministry of Justice, which are linked to information on the judges that imposed these sentences,” she continues. The project team are using econometric models to probe deeper into this data and assess the impact of short-term prison sentences on recidivism rates. Part of the justification for imposing short-term prison sentences is their supposed deterrent effect, yet Professor Wermink says the evidence shows that they actually promote rather than deter recidivism, with more repeat offending among this group than those who received non-custodial sanctions. “Our study showed that short-term imprisonment leads to increased re-offending rates when we look at a follow-up period of five years. We find that not only for adults, but also for juveniles,” she outlines. This is the case both for repeat offenders, who had previously
served time in prison, and also people experiencing incarceration for the first time. “We found that short-term imprisonment had criminogenic effects on both groups,” says Professor Wermink. A further topic of interest in the project is the financial cost of imposing short-term prison sanctions, which is ultimately borne by tax-payers. Researchers have found that Dutch society as a whole pays somewhere in the region of 400 million euros each year for retribution, the punishment part of a prison sentence, without considering its impact in terms of reducing crime. “We want to really get across how much we pay as a society for imposing these custodial sanctions,” says Professor Wermink. Non-custodial sanctions may be more effective in terms of reducing recidivism, while they are also less expensive. “We consistently find that shortterm imprisonment has these criminogenic effects when comparing people who received a short-term prison sentence with those who haven’t spent time in a detention facility, and received a non-custodial sanction,” continues Professor Wermink.
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Understanding the consequences The project will play an important role in this respect, providing a deeper picture of the consequences of serving a prison sentence. The appropriate punishment for crimes is a matter of great public interest in the Netherlands, and Professor Wermink aims to help inform the wider debate. “I always aim to reach a wider audience, including not just people who work in the criminal justice field, but the general public as a whole,” she says. While it may be thought that a more draconian sentencing policy will lead to reductions in crime, the overall picture tends to be more complex, and it’s important to consider the wider consequences. “We may have certain ideas about how the world works, but they don’t always match the reality. We aim to inform the public about the
Our study showed that short-term imprisonment leads to increased re-offending rates when we look at a follow-up period of five years. We find that not
only for adults, but also for juveniles.
This is an important consideration for prosecutors and judges charged with determining the appropriate sentence for a specific offence. While a prison sentence may be the only possible option in some cases, Professor Wermink believes judges should be wary of imposing short-term custodial sentences, particularly considering their criminogenic effects. “Imprisonment is often perceived as society’s last resort in reaction to crime. The widespread use of shortterm custodial sanctions however seriously questions the validity of this perception and provides room to consider non-custodial alternatives to imprisonment. To reduce criminal justice expenditures and to prevent future crimes, non-custodial sanctions could more frequently be preferred over custodial ones,” she says. It’s also important to consider the pre-trial stage, as in the Netherlands many defendants are detained before their trial, then once convicted they are often sentenced to time served. “This is a mechanism that leads to very short-term prison sentences,” continues Professor Wermink. “So, reducing the number of pre-trial detainees may also reduce the
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number of short-term prisoners at the final sentencing stage. This is important to take into account because pre-trial detention is often imposed in various sentencing contexts, but is also often overlooked in the discussion about the use of imprisonment.”
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consequences of imposing short-term prison sentences,” stresses Professor Wermink. This research is still in progress (see Research Links in right panel), with Professor Wermink and her colleagues looking to publish some more of their results, while also exploring other avenues of investigation. An important goal is to look more at heterogeneity in the effects of short-term prison sentences. “Are the effects different for different sub-populations? It may be that a short-term prison sanction reduces recidivism for some sub-populations, while for others it may not,” outlines Professor Wermink. Researchers also plan to delve deeper into the data to look at topics around the social integration of people who have been released from prison after serving a short sentence compared to the social integration after non-custodial sanctions. “We know that a regular and legitimate source of income or work can reduce recidivism rates, but we don’t really know about the effects of short-term prison sanctions on things like labour market outcomes and health. That’s something I plan to explore in the future,” says Professor Wermink.
Life after release Life after release: understanding effects of imprisonment on the further life-course
Project Objectives
Imprisonment is typically the most severe sentence that can be imposed. Nevertheless, it is unknown whether sentencing goals are achieved through imprisonment. This study examines whether imprisonment works to reduce re-offending, for whom it works, and how consequences can be understood. This knowledge is necessary for more effective correctional intervention.
Project Funding
We gratefully acknowledge funding from the Gratama-foundation and The Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (451-17-018). We further thank the Research and Documentation Centre of the Dutch Ministry of Justice and the Dutch Public Prosecutors Office for facilitating access to the data and for providing advice on their use.
Project Collaborators
• Prof. dr. mr. Arjan Blokland (NSCR /Leiden University) • Prof. dr. Robert Apel (Rutgers University) • Dr. Jim Been (Leiden University) • Prof. mr. dr. Pauline Schuyt (Leiden University) • Prof. dr. Frank Weerman (Erasmus School of Law) • Dr. Gijs Weijters (WODC/ Ministry of Justice) • Suzan Verweij – PhD student (WODC/ Ministry of Justice) • Gwendolyn Koops-Geuze – PhD student (Erasmus School of Law)
Contact Details
Dr. Hilde Wermink .PhD, Dean Law Faculty Associate Professor Criminology Institute for Criminal Law & Criminology Kamerlingh Onnes Gebouw Kamer B3.30 Steenschuur 25, 2311 ES Leiden, NL T: +31 (0)71 527 7417 E: h.t.wermink@law.leidenuniv.nl W: https://www.universiteitleiden.nl/en/ staffmembers/hilde-wermink Research Links:
Study on effects of short-term imprisonment on recidivism: https://tijdschriften.boomcriminologie.nl/ tijdschrift/tijdschriftcriminologie/2022/2/ TvC_0165-182X_2022_064_002_001.pdf Study on effects of community service on recidivism among juveniles: https://journals.sagepub.com/ doi/10.1177/15412040221133094 Study on labor market outcomes: https://journals.sagepub.com/ doi/10.1177/00111287211007732
Dr. Hilde Wermink .PhD
Hilde Wermink is Associate Professor of Criminology at the Institute of Criminal Law and Criminology at Leiden University, where she also holds the position of dean of the PhD students. She holds a bachelor’s degree in Sociology and a master’s degree in Sociology and Social Research from Utrecht University.
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