European Geographer 11 - Scientific Symposium 2012

11th issue • August 2013 Magazine of the European Geography Association for students and young geographers

The Scientific Symposium 2012

EGEA is proudly supported by

Special issue: Scientific Symposium 2012

11

th issue August 2013

The Coming Age of Ambient Information and What It Means for Geography LECTURE REPORT Marthe Wens

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Modelling Land Use Changes Editorial Markus Speringer

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Discussing the New Geography of International Politics LECTURE REPORT

Survival of the Fittest?!

Multi-State Population Projections by Education for the EU and the European „Newbies” – Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro and Turkey

Markus Speringer

LECTURE REPORT Ema Corodescu

Lara Zemite

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Sprawl Maps Creation. Case Study of Kampala, Uganda WORKSHOP REPORT

One Cross for Each Tree

Ema Corodescu

The Schloßgarten in Stuttgart as Space of Resistance During the Protests Against the Infrastructure Project Stuttgart 21

Warning Maps WORKSHOP REPORT

Claudia Rock

The Possibility of Local Economic Development in Hungary Bence Rapkay

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Society Environment Interactions Around Leuven EXCURSION REPORT

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Colette Caruana

Ecological Corridors in Land Use Planning Policy in Poland Anita Bernatek

Permafrost in the Southern Carpathians Flavius Sîrbu

Johanna Brandstätter, Wouter T’Seyen

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Leuven Ancient and Alive

Reducing the Demand for Water: An Application of Ajzen’s Theory of Planned Behaviour among households in Malta

Johanna Brandstätter

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EXCURSION REPORT Lara Zemite

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Urban Geology in Brussels EXCURSION REPORT Ema Corodescu

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An Insight Into the Production of Maps and the Future of Data-Software EXCURSION REPORT Marthe Wens

Magazine of the European Geography Association for students and young geographers

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Editorial Markus Speringer Secretary of the Scientific Comitee 2012/2013

T

he 11th Issue of the European Geographer is a special edition with articles from EGEA’s Scientific Symposium 2012. After the great success of the Scientific Symposium at the Annual Congress (AC) in Poiana Zanelor 2010 (by Romanian EGEA entities) and in Ebermannstadt 2011 (by EGEA Erlangen and Munich), the third edition of the Scientific Symposium was held during the 2012 Annual Congress in Leuven.

The Scientific Symposium has been established as one of the core projects of the EGEA Scientific Committee (SciComm), which led to the publication of this special issue of the European Geographer. It’s the aim of this issue to enhance the scientific quality of EGEA and present the research of EGEAns

to a broader audience. The SciComm started a broad advertising campaign which led to 17 applications in total. We want to take this opportunity to thank everybody for the great abstracts and encourage everyone to continue with their scientific geographic work.

In the end, the nominated election board needed to choose eight presenters, who then presented their topics at the Scientific Symposium. The chosen applications covered a variety of themes highlighting the broad diversity of geographical research and specialisations.

This is what makes geography such a valuable subject.

This diversity of geographic branches mirrors the range of topics which the applicants submitted to the Scientific Committee. Their topics covered aspects in geography which reached from human geography, tourism, cultural geography, demography, ecology, economy, human capital and land use planning to geomorphology, water management, and physical geography in general. The presentations dealt with urban resistance movements, sports event tourism, population projection by education, local economic development, permafrost, water demand management, land use planning policy,

and the potential of coastal recreation.

These manifold topics were split into the two broad thematic sessions “Economy and Politics in Geography” and “Physical Geography and Nature Conservation” which each contained two panels with two presentations.

Therefore the topics were not limited to their research fields but put into an interrelated context with other geographic fields. This offers helpful tools to develop solutions for broader interdisciplinary problems using a holistic approach. Social and physical processes can’t be treated completely separate, because they correlate and affect each other.

Using this point of view, our presenters were able to introduce the audience to very interesting and exceptional themes. In this special issue of the European Geographer we are happy to present you the written work of these EGEAns. We hope you enjoy reading, pick up some ideas and maybe consider submitting your work to future editions of ■ the Scientific Symposium.

Colophon The EGEA Magazine is a publication of the European Geography Association for Geography students and young geographers. The EGEA Magazine is published at least once per year.

The magazine is produced for the EGEA community, EGEA partners and everyone who is interested in geography, Europe and EGEA.

Postal address

EGEA Faculty of Geosciences — Utrecht University P.O.Box 80.115 NL-3508 TC Utrecht Telephone +31-30-2539708 E-mail egea@egea.eu E-mail EGEA magazine egea.magazine@egea. eu Website www.egea.eu

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Editors of the 11th issue Tobias Michl (Chief Editor), Rachel Abela (Chief Editor) Johanna Brandstätter, Colette Caruana, Rebecca Degaetano, Amanda Finger, Urban Furlan, Marek Kapusta, Ewa Koprowska, Jakub Ondruch, Annika Palomäki, Catrin Promper, Claudia Rock, Alexander Steinfeldt

All authors are completely responsible for the content of their articles, their figures and the references made by them.

The editors would like to thank

Graphic Design

Karl Donert (EUROGEO) for reviewing the articles of the Scientific Symposium

Marek Kapusta, Alfredo Ferrero Yanini, Catalin Cimpianu

Rik de Kleijn – EGEA BoE Secretariat Director 12/13

Contributing authors

All authors

Markus Speringer, Claudia Rock, Bence Rapkay, Colette Caruana, Anita Bernatek, Flavius Sirbu, Marthe Wens, Ema Corodescu, Lara Zemite, Johanna Brandstätter, Wouter T’Seyen

EGEA is supported by

Coverphoto Aino Kirillova

ESRI EUROGEO European Youth Foundation Youth in Action Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

Survival of the Fittest?!

Multi-State Population Projections by Education, for the EU and the European “Newbies” — Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro and Turkey Markus Speringer EGEA Wien Department of Geography and Regional Research - IfGR University of Vienna International Institute for Applied System Analysis – IIASA Vienna Institute for Demography – VID Wittgenstein Centre - WIC Keywords: Demography, Population Projection, Education, European Policy, Europe

Introduction

T

he title “Survival of the Fittest?!”, a phrase introduced by the British biologist and sociologist Herbert Spencer in 1864, was chosen as headline for this article for its eye-catching quality, and as reference to Charles Darwin’s “Natural Selection” theory on the genetic adaptability of organisms and life forms to immediate local environments in an evolutionary context, which was published in 1859.

However, in this article I will not cover the biological, but the socio-economic aspects behind this approach, which is highly influenced by the controversially discussed work An Essay on the Principle of Population by THOMAS R. MALTHUS (1798). He stated that the economic and demographic probability of the survival of nation-states, is reliable on three premises: (1) the geometric population growth; (2) exceeding the linear growth of food production; (3) which is mainly caused by the highly fertile poor working class who have to be kept at the poverty level, since an increase of wealth in this working class would motivate them even more to procreate and risk the resource capacities of the nation (DARWIN, 1859, EDERER et al., 2007, MALTHUS, 1817, SPENCER , 1864).

While his chain of reasoning found its supporters, it was mainly criticised by other famous representatives of the classical economists, such as DAVID RICARDO, WILLIAM GODWIN or NICOLAS DE CONDORCET. David RICARDO as well as the economist ADAM SMITH opposing MALTHUS’ reasoning, argued that the wealth of a nation is dependent on free trade between economically liberal nations, the creation of comparative advantages in production of goods and services, and the specialisation of individuals. For RICARDO and SMITH, the labour force and manpower of a country were the basic sources of national prosperity and continuity (EDERER et al., 2007); (SMITH, 1776). In An inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations published by Smith in 1776, he argues in favour “(…) of the acquired and useful abilities of all the inhabitants or members of the society.

The acquisition of such talents, by the maintenance of the acquirer during his education, study, or apprenticeship, always costs a real expense, which is a capital fixed and realised, as it were, in his person. Those talents, as they make a part of his fortune, so do they likewise that of the society to which he belongs. The improved dexterity of a workman may be considered in the same light as a machine or instrument of trade which facilitates and abridges labour, and which, though it costs a certain expense, repays that expense with a profit” (SMITH, 1776, p.113).

makes an analysis of the whole area extremely difficult. Therefore, based on selected indicators such as life expectancy, fertility, migration, economic variables and its historically phased evolvement, I decided to undertake a division of the European Union into the following two parts:

SMITH and RICARDO were pioneers in

Policy

the demand for comprehensive compulsory schooling for all citizens and key drivers for the Wealth of Nations.

About 150 years after ADAM SMITH and DAVID RICARDO, the United Nations constituted in their Human Rights Declaration in 1948 that it is a basic right of every citizen to gain education and that every nation is responsible for the provision of a free accessible education network (EDERER , et al., 2007); (Goujon, 2003); (LUTZ and GOUJON, 2001).

Spatial Analysis Units and Projection Period The European Union, which is central to this paper, is a socially, economically, politically and demographically heterogeneous region, which is what

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

• The European Union 15 (EU15) or “old” Europe (acceded before 2004): Austria (AT), Belgium (BE), Denmark (DK), Finland (FI), France (FR), Germany (DE), Greece (EL), Ireland (IE), Italy (IT), Luxembourg (LU), Netherlands (NL), Portugal (PT), Spain (ES), Sweden (SE), and United Kingdom (UK); • The European Union 12 (EU12) or “new” Europe (acceded after 2004): Bulgaria (BG), Cyprus (CY), Czech Republic (CZ), Estonia (EE), Hungary (HU), Latvia (LV), Lithuania (LT), Malta (MT), Poland (PL), Romania (RO), Slovenia (SI), and Slovakia (SK).

The political actions of the European Union within the continent of Europe are not limited to its member states, but affect all other European countries.

This is especially true for those countries that applied for an EU membership, such as Croatia (HR), Montenegro (ME), Macedonia (MK), and Turkey (TR), countries that are also part of this analysis (see Figure 1).

All of the countries within Europe have incorporated the right for education into their national constitutions, a right that was established during the Human Rights Declaration. The European Union itself has intensified its efforts to promote the field of education over the years in a number of ways, for example with the foundation of the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) in 1952 as well as the Treaty establishing the European Economic Community (TEEC), the Treaty of Rome in 1958 with its articulation of the financing of retraining measures (Article 56 in the ECSC), the enlargement of competences in educational policy about fundamentals in a common vocational education

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Candidate and Acceding Countries, which explains the gap between aspirations and reality in Turkey and Macedonia. In both countries, the economy is still mainly influenced by the agricultural and industrial sector, with a relatively high percentage of the workforce that does not require higher education in these sectors (see Figure 2).

Figure 1: The assignment of nation-states to EU15, EU12 and Candidate Countries (CC5) Source: European Commission, 2012; Speringer, 2012: 19

policy (Article 128 in the TEEC), and the approval of diplomas and professional qualifications (Article 57 in the TEEC) to simplify freedom of establishment and free movement of workers. In the following decades several EU guidelines and programmes became established in order to enhance the role of the European Union in codetermination of national education policies (BECKER and PRIMOVA , 2009); (EUROPEAN COMMISSION, 1992); (KOHLER , et al., 2006).

These supremacies of the European Council and Commission to gain influence within the national education systems, were viewed by many member states with some mistrust causing them to worry that too much intervention on national issues by the EU would make them lose control of this important policy field. Therefore the member states put a stop to these movements due to the enforcement of national subsidiarity in Article 126 and 127 of the Treaty of Maastricht in 1993, which allocated sole responsibility regarding curricula and educational organisation to the nation-states. The European Union would instead take up supportive functions to ensure a high level of general and vocational education with various projects and programmes such as COMENIUS, SOKRATES or LEONARDO DA VINCI (BECKER and PRIMOVA , 2009, EUROPEAN COMMISSION, 1992, KOHLER, et al., 2006).

Not until the year 2000, did the ambitious aspirations of the European Union change to become the most competitive and dynamic knowledgebased economic organisation in the world, due to initial economic goals, for instance the Lisbon Strategy and the succeeding Europe 2020 Strategy.

Focusing on the recent Europe 2020 Strategy, two out of seven flagship initiatives with the following key

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priorities: smart growth, sustainable growth and inclusive growth are concerned with education and training.

These two initiatives are the “Youth on the move” and “An agenda for new skills and jobs” and their major aims are to enhance the adaptability for economic fluctuations and crisis, plus to accelerate the recovery of the European economy. Therefore, in the Europe 2020 Strategy, the European Commission

• Enhancing the share of the tertiary educated population between the age of 30 and 34 up to 40% by 2020.

As higher education is widely considered as a driving force for economic growth within the European Union, this goal was set to enhance the competitiveness of Europe and to create, in the long run, a knowledgeable society which is able to compete with various economic global players such as the USA, Japan, and China. In countries like Macedonia and Turkey, access to higher education is still not comprehensively attainable and subject to the limitations of the labour market. This is due to the fact that the labour market demands for more people with higher education is not enough, as the national economies are predominantly dependent on the export of agricultural and industrial goods (see Figure 3).

Figure 2: The assignment of nation-states to EU15, EU12 and Candidate Countries (CC5) Source: European Commission, 2012; Speringer, 2012: 19

stated two quantitative goals for its member states to reach by 2020 (EUROPEAN COMMISSION, 2010): • Reducing the early-school leavers (ISCED0-2) rate in the 18 to 24 years age group to 10% in 2020.

Except for Croatia, all spatial analysis units are exceeding this goal.

Admittedly, the Europe 2020 Strategy Goals were set for the member states of the European Union and therefore not customised for the

In these countries, there are simply not enough jobs in the labour market for people with a higher level of education, which makes it unattractive for anyone to go through all the time and effort of getting a higher degree of education. Primarily, these countries would require a restructuring of their national economies before the educational transition would make sense for their labour market.

To assume that the potential effects of

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

case of education, these added younger age groups would be assigned to the lowest educational category, as education is generally achieved during the younger age groups up to 30 years. In general, an individual completes his/ her education during this time and once an education has been achieved, it cannot be lost, hence the lack of possibility to move from a higher educated group to a lower one (see Figure 5).

These are two major factors in favour of education as a research object (GOUJON, 2003, O’NEILL , et al., 2001, ROGERS and LEDENT, 1975, SPERINGER , 2012).

Figure 3: Share of female population aged 30-34 years with ISCED5-6 education, in contrast to Europe 2020 Aim (40%), 2008 Source: European Commission, 2010; Eurostat, 2012; Speringer, 2012:87

educational policy reforms on the prospective demographic and economic structure are positive, as the Europe 2020 Strategy claims to be, demographers try to project these potential impacts in population projections.

“Population projections are calculations which show the future development of a population when certain assumptions are made about the future course of fertility, mortality, and migration. They are in general purely formal calculations, developing the implications of the assumptions that are made. A population forecast is a projection in which the assumptions are considered to yield a realistic picture of the probable future development of a population.” (UNITED NATIONS, 1958, p.45).

Methodology Population projections are demographic techniques that are highly demanded and used by governments, enterprises and scientists and are used to anticipate relevant public and economic future demographic developments, such as the need for schools, medical services, public and private pension systems, market shares, etc.

Historically grown from simple linear extrapolations in the last century, currently, the most used cohort-component projection method evolved in its final form, from one introduced by FRANK W. NOTESTEIN in 1945 (GOUJON, 2003; O’NEILL , et al. 2001; ROGERS and LEDENT 1975).

“Initial population for countries or regions are grouped into cohorts defined by age and sex, and the projection proceeds by updating the population of each age- and sex-specific group according to assumptions about three components of population change:

fertility, mortality, and migration” (O’NEILL , et al., 2001, p.210).

In 1975, Andrei Rogers extended this approach with so called “states” that originally described spatial units.

Based on a multidimensional expansion of the increment-decrement life table and the cohort-component projection method, in this model, Rogers tried to implement movements between spatial units. In the beginning he neglected the potential of this state–approach, as it could also be applied to social characteristic differentials such as ethnicity, marriage patterns, religion and educational level, instead of spatial units. (GOUJON, 2003, O’NEILL, et al., 2001, ROGERS and LEDENT 1975).

The original movement processes could be converted to the transition between social characteristics from one age group to the next, following in one projection interval, whereby the youngest age group (0 to 4 years) gets refilled by the births from the population in fertile age groups (15 to 49 years). In the

Another important input of population projections, beside the population stock, fertility, mortality, migration (all three vital rates) and transition rates by sex, age and state, are the assumptions about the potential path and pace of the vital rates and transition. To express the uncertainty of these developments there are two general approaches, the probabilistic projections and the implementation of scenarios, whereby in this thesis I have found three scenarios for these approaches (GOUJON, 2003; O’NEILL , et al., 2001; ROGERS and LEDENT, 1975).

Model Assumptions and Scenarios For my research I wanted to evaluate the hypothetical impact of the Europe 2020 Strategy, regarding its educational goals for the prospective population size, age structure and educational composition. The level of education is thereby defined according to the International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED). I grouped these levels, according to the data availability and the Europe 2020 Strategy goals, which are based on this distinction, into the following three categories: • ISCED 0-2 No education and basic/primary education (red); • ISCED 3-4 Upper secondary and post-seconda-

Figure 4: Multi-State Age pyramid Source: Speringer, 2012: 64

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

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significant population decline, i.e. the EU12 or Croatia.

Figure 5: Schematic illustration of the educational transition process Source: Goujon and Lutz, 2004: 124

ry education (green); • ISCED 5-6 Higher or tertiary education (blue); (In the rest of the text I will keep these labels and colours in the charts) Based on these educational groups and vital rates, I created the following three scenarios (each with [constant] or without migration): (1) Constant (CPS) Scenario – the constant scenario is a reference scenario in which fertility, mortality, migration and education transitions of the base year are set at a constant rate.

(2) Europe 2020 (ESS) Scenario – is also a constant scenario, with constant fertility, mortality and migration. The only difference to that of the CPS Scenario is that the transition rates change between 2008 and 2020 according to the Europe 2020 Strategy (10% early school leavers and 40% tertiary educated in age group 30-34 years).

(SKIRBEKK , 2008, SOBOTKA , et al., 2012, SPERINGER , 2012).

Results In the case of the education scenarios ESS and TTS, taking into account the differences in the peculiarity of the vital rates in all investigation units (except in the case of Turkey), the population would shrink within the projection period from 2008 to 2048. (see Figure 6) This occurs because fertility rates before 2008 are higher than the fertility replacement level (TFR>2.1). In the TTS Scenario, the TFR is assumed to fall to 1.6, which causes a slighter population increase than in the Constant Scenario. This is mitigated by an increase of life expectancy from 73.6 years in 2008 to 80.9 years in 2048. The other regions/countries would show a

Both spatial units would decline in population, but partly for different reasons. In the case of the EU12, the population decline besides being dependent on the current age structure and the remaining low fertility but still high mortality rates, is also dependent on the assumed continuing emigration.

This emigration would cost the EU12 countries about 7.3 million people in the case of the CPS and ESS Scenarios and about 7.6 million people in the case of the TTS Scenario without taking into account the accompanied absence of births these emigrants would generate.

LUTZ (2006) names this process the Low Fertility Trap Hypothesis (LFTH), which describes a self-reinforcing process.

The low fertility leads to a change of paradigms in family formation to that of small ideal family sizes, which then leads to an even lower fertility rate.

Additionally, the newly socialised children will probably have fewer children themselves. In relative shares, the population size of EU12 with (e)migration would be about 10% smaller in 2048 than without (see Figure 7).

In 2008, the population size of the EU12 countries was 103.3 million inhabitants (peak in 1988: 106.7 million), but in the illustrated ESS and TTS scenarios, its population size would drop by about 19.6% (20.3 million) for the TTS Scenario and by about 30.1% (31.1 million) for the ESS Scenario. This difference of 10 million people evolves due to the changes in vital rates, where the TFR rises from 1.41 in 2008 to 1.55 and the life expectancy from 73.9 years to 83.4 years in 2048 (TTS Scenario).

Except for Turkey and Montenegro,

(3) Target-Trend Europe 2020 (TTS) Scenario – beside the implementation of the Europe 2020 educational goals into the transition rates, the other vital rates of fertility, mortality and migration follow a reliable prospective path (SPERINGER , 2012).

In the first two scenarios, the vital rates are set constant on the level of 2008 to highlight the hypothetical impact of the Europe 2020 strategy. In the third scenario, the vital rates are related to the fertility and mortality projections established by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the EUROPOP 2010 projections by Eurostat, as their calculations show a high internal validity and reliability because of the past trends in fertility and mortality.

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Figure 6: Population Development in the EU and Candidate Countries, 1973-2048 (2008 ≙ Index 100) Source: DZS, 2010; Eurostat, 2012; MONSTAT, 2008; Speringer, 2012: 79f; TÜIK, 2012

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

nia and Turkey, this percentage would be almost quadrupled in the next 40 years. This change in the educational composition of the workforce supply would have major effects on the economic structure and labour market of the country, which raise the question as to whether this change would have a positive or negative effect, since it would surely cause massive upheavals.

Conclusions

Figure 7: Percental loss or gain of population size in scenarios with migration, compared to zero migration scenarios Source: DZS, 2010; Eurostat, 2012; MONSTAT, 2008; Speringer, 2012:81; TÜIK, 2012

the TFR is assumed to increase in the other four spatial units over the next 40 years (SOBOTKA , et al., 2012). The population size and structure will be influenced by projected growths in the 65 plus age group. In Turkey, for instance, the share of elderly people (65 plus) will increase from 6.8% in 2008, to 20% in the 2048 TTS Scenario, whereby especially the eldest age group (85 plus) would rise. The share of the eldest population group would be compared to the base year increase ten-fold till 2048 in the TTS Scenario (see Figure 8).

Comparing the CPS and TTS Scenarios for the EU12 countries in 2048, the age groups from 50 years upwards would gain population, in particular due to the earlier noted increase in life expectancy of about 10 years. In addition to this, the educational structure would change for the age groups between 15 and 50 years, with major consequences for the types of qualifications the labour market would demand of the

workforce (see Figure 9).

The educational goals articulated in the Europe 2020 Strategy would mainly effect the prospective educational composition of the prospective working age population, which would shrink proportionally in all analysis units. The highest decrease could be observed in the EU12 countries, where the percentage of working age population would shrink from 70.5% in 2008 to the estimated 61.2% (CPS & ESS) or 55.8% (TTS) in 2048. Even with constant education transition rates, the percentage of higher educated (ISCED5-6) workforce would increase from 15.4% in 2008 to 25.4% in 2048 (CPS Scenario).

In both the education policy scenarios, ESS and TTS, the share would increase even more to 37.7% (ESS) or 37.3% (TTS) (see Figure 10).

In fact, all the spatial units investigated here, would show an increase of higher educated workforce under these set assumptions. Especially in Macedo-

Figure 8: Share of population aged 65-84 years & 85 plus, 2008-2048 Source: DZS, 2010; Eurostat, 2012; MONSTAT, 2008; Speringer, 2012:82; TÜIK, 2012

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

Currently, countries like Turkey and Macedonia are economically disproportional to the EU in that they are dependent on the production of agricultural and industrial goods and services. In Turkey about 9.4% of the GDP is produced in the agriculturaland 25.9% in the industrial economic sector while in the EU countries it only accounts for about 2.1% to 27.3% of the total GDP in 2009. The economic weight of the primary and secondary economic sectors becomes even more visible when illustrating the percentage of employment by economic sector, where in 2009, out of 21.28 million employees, about 24.7% (5.25 million people) are employed in the agricultural sector and 25.3% (5.38 million people) in the industrial sector (see Figure 11).

In the European Union no more than 47%, or 9.98 million people, are employed in the agricultural sector and 26.2%, or 55.88 million, in the industrial sector in 2009. Countries such as Turkey and Croatia have presently not even reached the sectorial distribution of the workforce as the EU countries had in 1989. One reason for this is that the change of economic orientation in Europe started almost 150 to 200 years ago with the initiation of the industrial revolution whereas in Turkey this process just started in the second half of the 20th century and accordingly lies behind in the adaptation of population qualification and economic development.

Turkey has evolved in the last decades to become one of the biggest producers in agricultural and industrial goods and services, which they mainly export to the European Union. Accordingly, the economic output in these sectors is still a dominant variable in the Turkish GDP and labour market.

This is also reflected by the educational level of the Turkish workforce, where about 76.1% of the population is below ISCED-2.

What would happen if the Turkish government could transpose the Europe 2020 education goals into their national legislation and achieve them by 2020? In the TTS Scenario, in the year 2048, 28.9% of the Turkish workforce would have an education of ISCED0-2, 43.9% that of ISCED3-4 and 27.1% that

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Figure 9: Population by educational attainment in EU12, 2048 (left: CPS Scenario / right: TTS Scenario with migration) Source: Eurostat, 2012; Speringer, 2012: 90

of ISCED5-6. This would mean that the percentage of workforce with ISCED0-2 would shrink by a third from what it was in 2008, while the percentage of higher educated workforce would quadruple.

This hypothetical development could harm the competitiveness with other low-wage countries and could cause international enterprises to reallocate their production centres to Asia or Africa. Thus, their economic branches would become destitute and cause an even higher unemployment rate than Turkey already has. This could again cause the emigration of highly skilled

the Turkish government has to drive economic reforms and labour market adjustments further to face this development. Even now, more and more Turkish citizens are opting for the ISCED3-4 qualification, but often without taking into consideration the labour market demands (INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 2011; OECD 2012).

Nevertheless, education or qualification of the workforce, often named as human capital, is mainly associated with economic growth, as far as the economic transition can keep pace with the educational transition.

“People are the wealth of nations. But

Figure 10: Share of working age population including education groups, 2008-2048 Source: DZS, 2010; Eurostat, 2012; MONSTAT, 2008; Speringer, 2012:92; TÜIK, 2012

unemployed professionals to other countries, most probably to Europe or the Arabian Peninsula (INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 2011; OECD 2012) While the achievement of the Europe 2020 Strategy, which is aligned to the economic and social structures of the EU member states, would probably increase the economic output and competitiveness of the EU, the Turkish economy would be in danger of cutting down its own economic pillars, agriculture and industry. However, sooner or later, the Turkish public, even without the Europe 2020 goals, will aspire to achieve higher levels of education in the hope of obtaining higher prosperity and occupational status. Therefore,

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it is not only the number of people that counts, it is also the skills, abilities and health status of the people that matter. All these aspects viewed together can be called the human resources base, or human capital in more economic language This broadening view of population also implies that political goals should not be defined in terms of population size but rather in terms of human resources available for producing the best possible quality of life for all citizens.” (LUTZ , et al., 2006, p.20)

minants. Therefore, I have illustrated in this analysis three theoretical paths that could occur under varying circumstances: those of the EU15; the EU12; and of Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro and Turkey, which show potential end-users certain “what-if” scenarios. Those scenarios probably will not suit the demands of political actors who mainly call for “realistic most likely” scenarios and sometimes for its probability of occurrence to gauge their political and financial actions. For them, even small differences in percentage points, in the share of elderly or young people, on a national or European scale, mean considerable differences in the needed financial contributions. The aspirations of demographers have to be on the one hand, to increase their projection accuracies taking into consideration as many components as possible and on the other hand to produce a realistic projection that would clarify to the end-users the certainty level and the potential scope of action (LUTZ , et al., 1998); (SPERINGER , 2012).

This article refers in its core to the theoretical demographic effects on the European educational structure due relevant EU2020 goals. This, to give a glimpse of potential demographic, economic, and political restructurings on the European landscape and its repercussion for a whole generation of Europeans over a 40 year time period till 2048. Every demographic relevant policy has a momentum which doesn’t end with the expiration of a policy, as it pervades the composition of whole birth cohorts that have to pass through their whole working career beyond their schooling. To create sustainable educational, social, and economic policies it is necessary to take the potential consequences of every policy into account to be able to follow an integrated ■ planning approach.

The extent of the population ageing and shrinking is to a certain degree vague, as every projection is based on expert-based opinions about the path of the population development deter-

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

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European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

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One Cross for Each Tree The Schloßgarten in Stuttgart As a Terrain of Resistance During The Protests Against The Infrastructure Project Stuttgart 21 Claudia Rock EGEA Tübingen University of Tübingen My heart is connected with this park, with this city.

This is why I say: I am not going away from here.

We now hung on the protest for so long.

So now we will hear, if it is necessary, accompany our trees to the bitter end.

O

n the 14 February 2012, the police cleared the space of the Schloßgarten, a public park in Stuttgart, from tents and protestors. For about two years, the protestors against the large infrastructural project Stuttgart 21 had occupied a large area of the park, and used it as a base for their protest against the idea of a new station in Stuttgart.

From September 2010 onwards, loud cries could be heard demanding the authorities to stop the building of the new train station. The controversial infrastructure project fostered largescale protests, which mobilised thousands of people during its peak. These protests were not only happening on the streets, but had their base in the public park directly next to the train station. This public park became what ROUTLEDGE (1996) identified as a terrain of resistance. One important aspect of this is the symbolic character and changing meaning of the Schloßgarten for and during the protests. This paper aims to first describe the dimensions of the conflict between the different parties involved in the infrastructure project and the protests, and will then analyse the different meanings the Schloßgarten had during three different stages of the protest. Some activists even went as far as occupying the park endangered by the construction site with a permanent tent camp, which served as an important symbol for the protest. Their voices will be a special

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focus of this analysis as they represent one of the most active groups in the protest movement. The different stages of the Schloßgarten as a terrain of resistance will be concluded by an observation of the terrain of resistance still being in function, although now as a memorial site.

Outlining the conflict.

Stuttgart’s controversial station renewal The major redesign for the central train station in Stuttgart has been planned since the early 1990’s. The project is part of the development of a connected European high-speed train network, and is financially supported by both federal and state government, and the city of Stuttgart among others. Germany’s private train company Deutsche Bahn however is both developer and building-owner. The project will transform Stuttgart’s terminus station into an underground through station, and completely re-design the surrounding areas. In the outgoing 1990’s Deutsche Bahn itself stopped the project, as the then CEO Johannes Ludewig deemed it too big, and too expensive (SCHWARZ and GERSTER , 2009, p.5). Planning started again, when the state Baden–Württemberg was not willing to give up with the project. Over the years, the project was stopped and restarted several times, until eventually the state parliament decided to build Stuttgart 21 in October 2006. Building began on the 2 February 2010 with a symbolic ceremony.

Organised protests against Stuttgart 21 had already started in 2008, but large masses of people only joined the protestors when the first wing of the old main station was demolished.

While building measures continued, the large-scale demonstrations and protests against the project peaked on the 30th September 2010, when protestors and the police violently clashed in the Schloßgarten. Several people on both sides were injured, and neither police, nor the protestors can clearly explain why the situation escalated on this Thursday, which then became

named “Black Thursday”. Since this incident, the Schloßgarten has become a symbol for the protest against the project and the opposition the protestors experienced. Protestors continued to occupy trees in the Schloßgarten, held vigils, rallies, and built an information booth. Around this information booth, two tent camps formed, in which protestors began to live to be close to the station for any case of emergency. The continuous protest against the building measures and the project led to a referendum on the 27th November 2011 where Baden–Württemberg’s population voted in favour of the project, yet not all protestors have stopped their resistance. The protest in the Schloßgarten was eventually ended on the 15 February 2012, when police forces cleared the tent camps and the area was immediately handed over to begin with the clearance of the trees and the construction of a fence around the area.

After this outline of the conflict, it becomes clear that the very space of the Schloßgarten became an object of contention within the conflict. The following discourse analysis will focus on the group of the Parkschützer and their relation to the developing terrain of resistance, and their relationship to the established, and later demolished space.

Understanding resistance and localised protest In this paper, the term “resistance” is understood in reference to Pile’s definition, in which he already highlights the importance of the space, the geographical aspect, in it: “Since resistance opposes power, it hardly seems worth mentioning that acts of resistance take place through specific geographies: in the spaces under the noses of the oppressor, on the streets, (…) or further around specific geographical entities such as (…) ‘our land’ (…)” (PILE , 1997, p.1). We can understand that resistance and space are linked; mostly space is used as the means of resistance - by either inserting oneself into it to protest, or to fight to save it, or to struggle about it. Marxist geographer CASTELLS understands this as „terrain of resistance”, in which the political opposition is mobilised, and how the Capitalist structures define actors and conflicts, and how their interrelations form social movements in the city (CASTELLS, 1983). Within this paper, I will not go into detail of these relationships, but utilise the idea of “terrain of resistance” in relation to the Schloßgarten in Stuttgart. Hasson provides more insight into the makings of urban protests which are linked to local cultures, as he provides a clear

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

definition of urban social movement, which “(…) is a concerted attempt of urban groups to further or secure a common interest either in the ecological, cultural or political sphere through collective action outside the sphere of established institutions” (HASSON, 1997, p.256). ROUTLEDGE observes that social movements are usually located within the political boundaries of a state and affected by the actions and policies of the state (ROUTLEDGE , 1996, p.510). He refers to ESCOBAR’s argument that through their actions, social movements would always be distinctively present in their social and cultural environment (ESCOBAR , 1992 in ROUTLEDGE , 1996, p.510). Before the background of Stuttgart 21 protests, the cultural level of social movements defined by ROUTLEDGE comes into focus: they would articulate the search for spaces of social and political expression and form identities and solidarities among other things (1996, p.514). ROUTLEDGE also equips us with a definition of the so-called terrain of resistance, which “(…) represents an interwoven web of specific symbolic meanings, communicative processes, political discourses, religious idioms, cultural practices, social networks, economic relations, physical setting, envisioned designs and hopes” (1996, p.516). During contestation, a terrain of resistance would not just be a physical space, but also a physical expression.

It is important to note that according to ROUTLEDGE the dominating power can range from individual to collective action (1996, p.517).

Who to ask if you cannot ask anymore?

During research design it became clear that there would be one big difficulty: the review had to be conducted in retrospect, as the tent camp of protestors had been cleared out, and it was no longer possible to conduct on-site interviews with the people who actually occupied the park. Despite the possibility to track former occupiers via the internet, it would not have been guaranteed that FRIEDRICH’S demands for a research of good design would have been fulfilled - neither would have been clear if the test was representative, nor was the complete sample known (FRIEDRICHS, 1982). Therefore, a “standard” analysis was not possible. A quantitative approach was discussed, but then not taken, as the limits would have guided the analysis in another direction than that intended. As the protestors communicated with the public by using the internet, the decision was taken to use material from web and treat them as authentic voices. One danger of qualitative research could be dodged by this approach. Despite that

my choice of texts also influences the analysis, as I take the actual formulations of the protestors, there is no danger of misunderstanding during transcription, as for example FLICK (1995) or MAYRING (1995). However, as I actively chose which blog entries, speech, and press announcements I would interpret, I am aware of the danger, that I might have selected only the extreme, or only the moderate voices.

Due to the qualitative nature of this research, the findings were achieved with an interpretative, understanding method. The different stages of the protest are oriented on the timeline of the protests within the park, and the chosen material was analysed and interpreted along these guiding questions: 1. What function did the Schloßgarten have for the protest and the protestors?

2. What meaning did the Schloßgarten have for the protest and the protestors?

3. What change in meaning and function did occur?

Before Black Thursday The Schloßgarten is prominently mentioned in the vow members of the protest groups took in public to show their determination to protect it: “We vow to protect the park, every tree (…)”

(UMKEHRBAR E.V., 2012) Here however, the park is not specifically more important than the mineral sources, or the station building itself.

Black Thursday and its aftermath Only when protests grew larger, and frustration of people grew stronger, the crucial role of the Schloßgarten within the protests became clear. Activists had climbed and stayed on trees, and carried out numerous events in the Schloßgarten. The significance of the trees was made clear by the protestors of the two groups ROBIN WOOD and PARKSCHÜTZER: “Where one tree is cleared, two new ones will be occupied. We might not have the power, but the better arguments and feel we are surfing on a wave of sympathy.” (PARKSCHÜTZER , 2010a). The importance of the Schloßgarten for the protests grew, as the first trees were scheduled to be cleared away for the construction site in September 2010. Protest actions became more present and had created a tent camp, which was cleared on 19th September 2010. The PARKSCHÜTZER responded with criticism to the authorities: “This shows how little effort

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

politicians (…) put into finding solutions which serve the people” (PARKSCHÜTZER , 2010b). When on the 30th September thousands of protestors clashed with the police, one protestor was hit by water cannons, and lost his eyesight. The pictures of this pensioner dominated the news, and he became a symbol of the violence the state had used to counter the protests. His presence on the demonstrations continued, and increased his symbolic meaning, as he blamed the police for his injury (RP ONLINE , 2011). The CEO of Deutsche Bahn found clear words to react to the escalation: “There is no right of resistance against the building of a station (…) Parliaments decide, no-one else (…)” (SÜDDEUTSCHE.DE , 2010). Both protestors and media used pictures and video material from the Schloßgarten to report, which resulted in the park becoming the very symbol for the protest and the reaction of the authorities to the protest.

What happened is outlined by CRESSWELL: “The unintended consequence of making a space a means of control is to simultaneously make it a site of meaningful resistance.” (1996, p.163).

He explains this in relation to the idea of space being used to control people and things (SACK , 1986 in CRESWELL , 1996, p.163), which would then lead to relatively effective and simple strategies of power. Their unintended consequence would be to give space a heightened symbolic significance (CRESSWELL , 1996, p.163). The police, as executive force of the government, have enabled the establishment of being “out of place”, as the creation of property would lead to the existence of trespass (CRESSWELL , 1996, p.164) of the protestors in the Schloßgarten.

This is reflected in the discourse the PARKSCHÜTZER have used and use since then. The opening quotations of this paper already indicated that the PARKSCHÜTZER see themselves as being pushed out of what would be rightfully theirs - they refer to their right to a public park, the public space. Although the Schloßgarten never left ownership of the city of Stuttgart, the right of public use has been limited to enable to construction of Stuttgart 21. CRESSWELL also mentions the power of “inappropriate actions” (1996, p.165): “Action in space is (…) a reading of a text. Because the reading is particularly visible, heretical readings immediately draw attention to themselves. People acting ‘out of place’ suggest different interpretations. If enough people follow suit, a whole new conception of ‘normality’ may arise”. This, however, is where the protestors against Stuttgart 21 have failed to succeed. They tried to keep the interpretation of the Schloßgarten as the established public park alive - while the new, and normalised

3 13

interpretation established by the builders of Stuttgart 21 is the park area first as site of the construction works, and later part of the modernised new city quarter and high tech train station.

The protestors attempted to achieve the change of interpretation by transgression. By inserting themselves by building a tent camp into the space of the Schloßgarten, the protestors attempted to counteract the establishing discourse - they were successful for some time, but lost public support as the referendum took away their legitimacy.

The Last Bastion with support crumbling away After the lost referendum, many protestors accepted the vote of the people. Others however continued their resistance. The protests continued, and the Schloßgarten gained an important symbolic character as last bastion of resistance against the project. The tent camp continued to exist, but was in constant danger of being cleared.

After a relatively calm December and January, both protestors and builders became more active in early 2012. The reason was obvious: the Schloßgarten was necessary to build the construction site. The PARKSCHÜTZER started to motivate people to join them in the park: “It does not matter what kind of weather will be, we, the lovers of the park, would like to come into the park on Sunday” (PARKSCHÜTZER , 2012a). Their effort was not enough, and the police cleared the park from the remaining tents in the night of the 14 February, so that the trees could be cleared away on the 15 February.

After the trees were cut down, and the camp of protestors was cleared, the Parkschützer still refused to give up. In reference to the beginning spring, they made clear that: “resistance blossoms”.

Their view of the end of the protest camp is that “In the night from the 14 to the 15 February 2012, violence was done to us and the park. Powerless, we had to watch how the destruction of our city was pushed further by soulless people, who serve the concrete technocracy. We were hurt and sad (…)”

(PARKSCHÜTZER , 2012b).

Conclusion: one cross for each tree As this paper set out to describe the conflict between the different parties involved in Stuttgart 21, and then focused on the different meanings of the Schloßgarten during different stages of the protest, it became clear, that the symbolic meaning of the park as a ter-

3 14

rain of resistance was crucial for the protests and protestors. The public discourse and the normalised reading of the area of the former park as now part of the construction site, and later part of the redesigned city are contrasted by the discourse of the PARKSCHÜTZER and other protestors still active, who took the terrain of resistance to its final form: a memorial site of the protest.

About a month after the tent camps were cleared, the PARKSCHÜTZER held a memorial service for their “brutal destruction”, but also announced they would continue resistance, as “if the majority settles with S21, does not question anything, because they feel informed well by the media, then the damage for this city will become even larger.” (PARKSCHÜTZER , 2012c).

Although the crosses for the trees on the fence surrounding the construction site will be cleared away as soon as the redesign of the area starts, the Schloßgarten will continue to be a symbol for the protest against Stuttgart 21 forever.

■

bis-heute-1.2208887?> [Accessed 15 August 2012].

PARKSCHÜTZER , 2010a. Robin Wood

& Parkschützer: BaumbesetzerInnen gegen Stuttgart 21 bleiben oben [online] Available at: <http://www. bei-abriss-aufstand.de/2010/09/17/ robin-wood-parkschutzer-baumbesetzerinnen-gegen-stuttgart21-bleiben-oben/> [Accessed 15 August 2012].

PARKSCHÜTZER , 2010b. Räumung der

Zeltstadt gegen Stuttgart 21 [online] Available at: <http://www. bei-abriss-aufstand.de/2010/09/19/ raumung-der-zeltstadt-gegenstuttgart-21/> [Accessed 15 August 2012].

PARKSCHÜTZER , 2010a. Bisheriges

Programm - Genießt am Sonntag den Park! [online] Available at: <http://www.bei-abriss-aufstand. de/2012/01/28/bisheriges-programm-geniest-am-sonntag-denpark/> [Accessed 15 August 2012].

PARKSCHÜTZER , 2012b. Der Widerstand

References CASTELLS, M., 1983. The City and the

Grassroots. University of California Press.

CRESSWELL , T., 1996. In Place - Out of

Place. University of Minnesota Press.

ESCOBAR , A., 2001. Culture Sits in Places:

Reflection on Globalism and Subaltern Stategies of Localization. Political Geography (20), pp.139–174.

FRIEDRICHS, J., 1982. Methoden em-

pirischer Sozialforschung. Opladen.

HASSON, S, 1997. Local Cultures and Urban Protests. In: In: PILE , S. and KEATH , M. eds, 1997. Geographies of

Resistance. Routledge, pp.236–257.

PILE , S., 1997. Introduction. In: PILE , S. and KEATH, M. eds, 1997. Geog-

raphies of Resistance. Routledge, pp.1–32.

ROUTLEDGE , P., 1996. Critical geopolitics

and terrains of resistance. Political Geography (15), pp.509–531.

er-blüht [online] Available at: <http://www.bei-abriss-aufstand. de/wp-content/uploads/samenbombe_zweiseitig_4-x-A6_Seite1480x339.png> [Accessed 15 August 2012].

PARKSCHÜTZER , 2012c. Trauerfeier:

Für jeden gefällten Baum ein Kreuz am Zaun [online] Available at: <http://www.bei-abriss-aufstand. de/2012/03/11/trauerfeier-furjeden-gefallten-baum-ein-kreuzam-zaun/> [Accessed 15 August 2012].

Süddeutsche.de, 2010: Stuttgart 21 “Widerstandsrecht gegen Bahnhofsbau gibt es nicht“ [online] Available at: <http://www.sueddeutsche. de/politik/proteste-gegen-stuttgart-ein-widerstandsrecht-gibtes-nicht-1.1007567> [Accessed 15 August 2012].

UMKEHRBAR E.V. VEREIN ZUR FÖRDERUNG DER ZIVILGESELLSCHAFT (2012):

Gelöbnis I Bei Abriss Aufstand [online] Available at: <http://www. bei-abriss-aufstand.de/texte/gelobnis/> [Accessed 15 August 2012].

SCHWARZ , K. and GERSTER , M., 2009.

Stuttgart-21-Gegner wittern ihre Chance. Stuttgarter Zeitung. 31 March 2009, p.5.

Sources of analysed media RP ONLINE , 2010. Ein Jahr “Schwarzer

Donnerstag” - Der erblindete Rentner kämpft bis heute [online] Available at: <http://www.rponline.de/panorama/deutschland/ der-erblindete-rentner-kaempft-

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

The Possibility of Local Economic Development (LED) in Hungary Bence Rapkay EGEA Budapest ELTE University, Budapest “Without ideas and vision, no pragmatic decisions can take place. The vision of the whole, not just the general rules of the game, should govern our acts and become the motor of social progress” (SEDLÁČEK, 2011, p.114)

Introduction

U

ntil recently, spatial development policies in Hungary focused on the interactions between territories. Presently, Hungarian researchers have started to agree on the fact that another approach can be more efficient in local development: an approach, which is based on local resources (human, natural, artificial, etc).

I wrote my degree thesis on the issue of Local Economic Development (henceforth LED) and Social Economics in Hungary. On the one hand I have some notions which refer only to Hungary, but on the other hand the main knowledge of this thesis is “international”, or at least applicable in post-socialist countries.

When I say “local economy” I mean the specific level of the economy, where the production and the consumption (VÁTI KHT, 2010) are directly connected.

On this level, people can clearly see their place in the chain of production and the - badly injured - capita of trust can rebuild in the society.

My main objective was to create an alternative to the way too expensive welfare state model as GREGG (2003) argues it in his work. I wanted to find a sustainable lifestyle for rural territories and for local groups, even in a major city. In this paper, I argue that the governmental advocacy and aid cannot be the solution.

My research is based on several written sources; from the ancient PLU-

TARCH to AUGUSTINE , from the Czech author TOMÁŠ SEDLÁČEK to the Hungarian LÁSZLÓ CSABA and ANDRÁS LÁNCZI, from the moral philosopher SAMUEL GREGG to the rural developer FLYNN.

The issue - the LED - was the focus, and inter- or even transdisciplinarity should not be an obstacle to me. I made some interviews, and I organised a focus-group discussion about the topic.

I visited some of the places, which we can put into the big LED-basket (considering ecological villages, social enterprises, farms, governmental working programmes for unemployed people, etc). I hoped to find the connection between the theoretical and the practical side of the issue. In the summer of 2012 I led a scientific field trip to one of the poorest areas in Hungary: Ormánság, next to the Croatian border.

We used surveys and interviews to collect a sufficient quantity of primary data. Based on my research, I argue that the main problem of the welfare state can be cured with specific programmes dealing with the localities. I argue that the absence of morality is a crucial part of the problem: there are socio-economic patterns in Hungary which are rooted in the unfinished or even unstarted discussions about the Soviet Regime and its rural policy. I am convinced that only by understanding rural spaces can we make a step towards sustainable forms of local economics. Is rural Hungary the pitfall of the financial policy? Is it the dream picture of the urban middle class? Is it the playground of the landowners? Is it the laboratory of sociologists, a place where they find the kind of alcoholism and poverty which they read about in books? We have to understand the topic we discuss.

To discover this complex issue I emphasised the following aspects – and these are just examples – in my thesis: the meaning of locality and rurality; EU-conforming strategies and what their problems are; new approaches to the issue; the government’s duty. After almost every macroeconomic crisis throughout history, the local level of economy usually (re)gained its value.

How can this happen in an age of globalization? In this essay, I will give you some mosaics from the socio-economic issues, which LED is affected by.

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

What can a geographer do?

“It is more the agreement on a question that unites a field, not the answers” (SEDLÁČEK , 2011, p.181).

As SEDLÁČEK points out, questions can unite scientific fields. Several ones have their specific answers, but geography - as a synthesizing science shares questions with other disciplines such as economics, sociology, history, anthropology, psychology, etc. Moreover, geography can interpret the ideas to the reality of spatial entities.

Problems faced How to do policies The starting point of my thesis is the current socio-economic situation in Hungary. Recently, the economic and political thinking has been in bad shape, at least the mainstream version of the phenomenon. According to CSABA (2011, p.820) as long as we deal with the public issues in an “automated manner”; as long as we deal less and less with moral and long-term issues, the “seize–the–day” attitude will be stronger and politics become even more symbolic.

We do not know what we should do with our lives, we do not know what its meaning is, but we have several specific “to–do–lists” in every policy field. We have fragmented strategies for almost every single socio-economic problem in the world, but we do not have treaties which can deal with the issue in a wiser way (for more planning theoretical issues see FRIEDMANN, 2004).

The source of the socioeconomic problems in Hungary Citizenship progress had been absent in Hungary for several hundreds of years. We had to face the problem of feudal paternalism and the progress of pseudo-citizenry during Communism.

There is still no real integration in our country and the possibility of social mobility is lower than in Western Europe. Nonetheless, we have a welfare state model, which can give a false impression of social progress. It is not real progress, however: millions of Hungarians would live on third-world levels without government advocacies and public services. There will be a time when the state can’t bear this situation anymore. We shouldn’t wait for this.

The communist ideology misunderstood the nature of men: in the warm bed of paternalism, without freewill there can be no entrepreneurship. The progress of society is not based on institutions and state interventions, but on the creative man (for further read-

3 15

ing see GREGG, 2003 and LÁNCZI, 2009) MISZLIVETZ (2008) calls this phenom-

enon the “stowaway mentality” (following NIETZSCHE’S “servant morality” (NIETZSCHE , 2003). Short-term thinking, just-get-away-with-this attitude: problems are not solved and society progress will stagnate or even decline.

What can we do about it Instead of the “stowaway mentality”, we have to “redistribute” responsibility to each person in society. Within modern democratic institutions, responsibility disappears. LÁNCZI argued that every decision is made by several people, so it is hard to find who is responsible for a specific result (LÁNCZI, 2011). Thus, people can have the false impression that there is no connection between one’s acts and the big entity’s results.

Mistrust is the cornerstone of the crisis. Without trust, economy cannot work well - or cannot work at all. I argue that it is easier to rebuild trust in small communities, than in the whole society in which people do not really know what the others are doing.

Society is afraid of distance but they cannot influence powerful phenomena nor can they understand them at all. They were formerly afraid of the storm and lightning, just as they are nowadays afraid of the INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, the government or credit rating companies like MOODY’S. They are afraid because these powerful entities have a huge effect on their lives and they cannot do anything about it. (For further detail see LÁNCZI, 2009). Are people truly powerless? I argue that, if people had a life that gave them shelter - distant from the modern age lightning – they would feel more confident, which is the basis of entrepreneurship (GREGG, 2003).

Mutual aid and the true meaning of solidarity In recent welfare states (probably because of the institutionalised moral systems, which can end in pseudo-tolerant behaviour or in hypocrisy) people usually misunderstand the meaning of the term “solidarity”. Most of these nations’ citizens agree upon the fact that solidarity is the duty of the state.

Well, it is not. We cannot institutionalise morality. It does not work that way.

Each person is a morally autonomous entity and if the state does not manage them this way, that leads us to nihilism (GREGG, 2003).

New approaches These “new” approaches do not appear to be so “new” after all.

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The ancient PLUTARCH writes about virtuous lives in his famous book, Parallel Lives. Darius offered peace to Alexander the Great, in seemingly correct, but not so good terms. One of Alexander’s soldiers, Parmenion said to the Great General (PLUTARCH , 558): “If I were Alexander, I would accept these terms”. Alexander replied: “I would certainly do the same, if I were Parmenion”.

ever, he/she is a homeless person from a major city.

We can see two houses built of garbage, nonetheless the main motive is completely different for each one. It is important to see the different reasons of different people in social economies.

Otherwise we cannot create a socially sustainable local economy.

As we can see from this example, Alexander could see the hidden dimensions of the term. He realised, that they may seem politically correct (this is the reason that he understood Parmenion’s point of view), but in longer terms this would be a disadvantageous peace.

We can face the exact same problems in recent Hungarian “EU-conform” strategies. As KPMG (2011) described it in a recent study, we can find partial solutions to almost every single problem in the country (in EU strategies), but we cannot find a coherent guiding principle, and we cannot get the big picture from these documents.

The bureaucrats want to satisfy every single need, but this leads to a fragmented strategy. Probably this notion is valid, because of the “pro-cyclical politics” which is, of course, the strong intention of each government to be re-elected.

Figure 1: One of Dan Phillips' houses Source: www.phoenixcommotion.com

The analogy of LED Analogy in evolutionary biology is defined as structural or behavioural similarity in terms of functions between unrelated species or organisms, although they do not share a common ancestral or developmental origin.

The uses of analogy in the social and human sciences is perfectly elaborated

by FOUCAULT (1970).

If LED is considered, we can find an interesting analogy - for the sociologically minded. We can find communities - with very different backgrounds - which pursue almost the same end: a sustainable local economy. A Western-European lawyer, who, bored with his/her desk-job starts a new life in a rural area, does this because of he/she needs self-realization. A poor and uneducated member of a big village family wants a life in his rural territory: his intentions are principally based on physiological reasons. But they seemingly want things which are similar to one another.

An example of this is DAN PHILLIPS and his buildings (see Figure 1). He is famous for his houses built of garbage.

People want his works, because they identify with his philosophy.

In Figure 2 we see a home built of garbage too. The owner’s reasons were very different from the former, how-

Figure 2: Garbage-house: the low-cost one Source: www.inhabitat.com

Rural areas: a LEDbased point of view FLYNN and LOWE (1994) provide the four

ideal types of rurality. I used these descriptions to elaborate an authentic reading of the Hungarian rurality. The meaning of the rurality is often confused in people’s minds. See the four ideas of the phenomenon for Hungary:

1. Saved rurality: a concept that is generally considered as a synonym for tourism areas rich in natural heritage and traditions. This is, however, an idealised (commercial) vision of rural areas that has hardly anything in common with real living conditions and patterns.

Such perception is often shared among urban middle class and is based on postcolonial views: an intranational reading of this phenomenon is at least as valid as the international one.

2. Conflict-laden or conflict-sensitive rurality is the most common perception of rurality among sociologists. Communities falling apart, the problem of alcoholism,

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

the unsustainable pattern of tiny villages, the ageing population and emigration are a few examples that characterise this negative understanding of the issue. LED has a great task: academics have to let people know, that rurality is not synonym for failure.

3. Paternalistic rurality: recently there was a debate about the “Darányi”-plan in Hungary. This plan is based on the theory of land distribution to a wider range of potential owners. If we grew vegetables and fruits on work-intensive fields, we could employ a lot of people, but if we continue with recent land use patterns - grain-crops grown on large land areas, which require only a marginal work force - then the poor people will “live in the middle of the agricultural area, and have nothing to do”, as one of the Ormánság village’s mayor told us informally. Nonetheless, this recent agricultural pattern is very lucrative for the big landowners (with political interests). KOPASZ (2005) argued that the historical tenure system is the main reason of recent entrepreneur-potential in different rural territories. She explained that on the one hand, in areas with huge feudal landowners in the past, the servant mentality is still common among the people and this hinders the development of private business. On the other hand, there are areas with traditionally small (5-10 ha) landowners, who sold their products at local market for centuries, whereby the entrepreneurial spirit is still present. The latter survived the 45 years of communism. However, numerous places in Hungary experienced forced relocation. People were relocated and the community was thus changed. Whilst Ormánság, for example, was a prosperous region before communism, it is considered poor today. The farmers had been expelled and in the Soviet Regime the unproductive agrarian proletariat society became predominant.

4. The State-dependent rurality: the source of this idea is based on the welfare-state model. Government aid and advocacy is harmful to entrepreneurship. As the Bible says, we should give them nets, not fish.

Because of the ageing population, state services in rural territories are becoming more expensive.

Means to achieve our goal, the liveable Hungarian rurality We have to consider the following means to development, if we take the “sustainability” of LED seriously (partly

based on NÉMETH, 2011).

1. SMEs (Small and medium size enterprises): rural areas do not need big syndicates in the centres; commuting to large centres will only be an emergency solution. We need SMEs in each small county.

2. Education: the prospect of well-being, which is nowadays defined by foreign marketing and TV commercials, should be reset in the young people’s minds. Instead, traditional values should regain their status.

As Lycurgus of Sparta put in his famous constitution (see PLUTARCH , 2005), “the letters of the law do not have any value, if society’s moral is not based on everyone’s convictions”.

3. Re-employment: it is important to deal with the people who have been unemployed for a long time i.e. during the crisis after the Soviet Regime. The first step is to transform their lifestyle: they should get up in the morning and leave the alcohol before workdays to be able to be a useful member of the community. These are not easy tasks to implement after two decades of unemployment.

4. “Empowerment”: we have to find ways to make local people capable of using their own resources. We should not export primary goods from rural areas: the possibility of development is in processed products.

5. Improvement of local products: brand building is essential.

6. Local money, local barter and exchange: if the localities had good trading systems, the income would not flow out of these places.

7. An autonomous energy supply: based on alternative resources.

8. Sustainable tourism: using the services of local SMEs. 9. Best practices, Local Heroes: an idea, a pattern, a spark of human creativity. We should establish institutions, which do not inhibit these LHs, but give a better chance for their ideas to flourish.

10. Community development and social work: we have to create strong communities, so the EU-slogan “subsidiarity” would not be an empty phrase anymore (like it is in Ormánság), but a real factor.

Conclusion As we have seen in this short review, there are several important factors, which we have to take seriously if future rural planning is to be successful. We should be aware of the socioeconomic situation of the object of the planning. We have to identify useful

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

tools in the LED. Moreover, modern pragmatic decision makers should use some of the ancient knowledge (like that of Alexander’s) to make reasonable proposals for the future. In the next EU planning period (2014–2020), we have to consider these issues in local development policies, mainly through a CLLD (Community-led Local Development) ■ framework.

References CSABA , L., 2011. A magyar átalakulás

és fejlődés néhány általánosítható elméleti tanulsága In: Közgazdasági Szemle, LVIII. évf., 2011, pp.813–831.

GREGG, S., 2003. On Ordered Liberty,

Oxford: Lexington Books, p.127.

FLYNN, A. and LOWE , P., 1994. Local

Politics and Rural Restructuring: The Case of Contested Countryside.

In JANSEN, A. and SYMES, D. eds.

Agricultural Restructuring and Rural Change in Europe. Wageningen: Agricultural University, pp.247–259.

FOUCAULT, M., 2002. The Order of

Things. Routledge, p.422.

FRIEDMANN, J., 2004. Strategic Spatial

Planning and the Longer Range.

Planning Theory & Practice, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp.49–67.

KPMG, 2011. Az Operatív Programok

félidei értékeléseinek szintézise [online] Available at: <http:// www.nfu.hu/download/34356/ F%C3%A9lidei_szint%C3%A9zis_riport_110531.pdf> [Accessed 2012].

LÁNCZI , A., 2009. Sors hagyaték Helikon.

Budapest, p.128.

MISZLIVETZ , F., 2008. Mi lett veled,

Magyarország? [online] Available at: <http://www.ujreformkor.hu/ node/34> [Accessed 2012].

NÉMETH , N. ed., 2011. A helyi

kezdeményezésű gazdaságfejlesztési programok vizsgálata. Budapest: MTA, p.112.

NIETZSCHE , F., 2003. Beyond Good and

Evil. Penguin Books, p.240.

PLUTARCH , 2005, Párhuzamos életrajzok. Translated by M. ELEK . Buda-

pest: Osiris Kiadó, p.2120.

SEDLÁČEK , T., 2001. Economics of Good

and Evil: The Quest for Economic Meaning from Gilgamesh to Wall Street. Oxford University Press, p.368.

VÁTI KHT., 2010. Local Economic Development, Ideas and solutions. Helyi Gazdaságfejlesztés. Ötletadó megoldások, jó gyakorlatok. Budapest, p.196.

3 17

Reducing the Demand for Water An Application of Ajzen’s Theory of Planned Behaviour among Households in Malta Colette Caruana EGEA Malta University of Malta

Abstract Due to its small geographic size, Malta is considered overpopulated. In addition to that, its semi-arid Mediterranean climate and hydrological characteristics provide insufficient fresh water resources to meet its requirements. The country relies on a high extraction rate from underground sources augmented by water supplied via reverse osmosis plants. Attempts at reducing demand are rarely considered and pursued as the decision process among households is insufficiently understood. This research seeks to better understand this aspect and employs AJZEN ’s Theory of Planned Behaviour (TpB) to develop hypotheses.

These hypotheses link the relevant Attitudes and their related Subjective Norms and Perceived Behaviour Control with how these impact the intention of households to install water saving devices. A questionnaire is developed and data are collected from a sample of 150 Maltese households. The questionnaire was found to have acceptable psychometric properties that allowed meaningful testing of the hypotheses. Among others, results indicate that Perceived Behaviour Control has the strongest effect on intention to install water saving devices. Implications from the results for policy are drawn, limitations are noted and directions for future research are indicated.

Key words: Water Scarcity, Malta, Households, Water Saving Devices, Ajzen’s Theory of Planned Behaviour (TpB), Intentions.

Introduction

“Wbroth of our origins, the

Malta has a challenging water situation. It is a Mediterranean island archipelago with a total surface area of 316 km². Being typically Mediterranean, Malta’s rainfall averages 553.1 mm but this is highly variable. In addition, Malta has a high population density of 1,250 inhabitants per km² making it one of the most densely populated countries in the world (NSO, 2010). It is also highly urbanised having more than 23% of its surface area built-up. In addition, some 1.2 million tourists visit the islands annually (MWRR , 2006).

These circumstances mean that Malta has one of the world’s lowest water availability of only 40 m³ per capita per year (ANGELAKIS, 2003). Rainwater that recharges the groundwater reserves is the sole natural source of freshwater on the Islands.

Therefore, whilst climatic and geographic factors may be the basis for the problem of water scarcity in the Maltese Islands, it is clear that anthropogenic factors are the real cause for concern. It has been suggested that if residents of Malta and the government do not change their habits with respect to water use, Malta will face some serious problems within the coming years (KNOX , 2008). The shortfall from groundwater is currently provided by expensive reverse osmosis desalinisation plants and by virtual water of which the country imports large volumes.

This paper seeks to investigate the psychological aspect relating to users’ willingness to curtail water usage. It employs AJZEN’s Theory of Planned Behaviour –TpB (AJZEN, 1991, 2002, 2006), to understand the extent to which the TpB can be used to explain and predict households’ intention to install water

efficient devices. Data are collected from among households in various localities around Malta. Results are provided, implications are drawn, limitations are noted and directions for future research are indicated.

Ajzen’s Theory of Planned Behaviour (TpB) The main outcome of interest in the TpB is Intention which is the last stage before actual action or behaviour that is directly observable. Intention has three conceptually independent antecedents which determine it. These consist of three sets of beliefs, namely: Behavioural Beliefs, Normative Beliefs and Control Beliefs (AJZEN, 1991), each linked to an underlying construct consisting of Attitude toward an object, Subjective Norms (SN) and Perceived Behavioural Controls (PBC). The three types of beliefs represent an indirect way of measuring Attitude, Subjective Norms and Perceived Behavioural Control. Therefore, Behavioural Beliefs and Attitude, Normative Beliefs and Subjective Norms, and Control Beliefs and Perceived Behavioural Control are necessarily strongly correlated. The TpB can be represented by the diagram in Figure 1.

While behaviour is actual and observable, Intention, Attitude, SN and PBC are psychological. The combination of attitude toward the behaviour, SN and PBC, all lead to the formation of a behavioural Intention. As a general rule, the more favourable the Attitude and SN, and the greater the PBC, the stronger should be the person’s intention to perform the behaviour in question (AJZEN, 2002, 2006).

ater is life. It’s the briny

pounding circulatory system of the world, a precarious molecular edge on which we survive…

We stake our civilisations on the coasts and mighty rivers.

Our deepest dread is the threat of having too little moisture — or too much (KINGSOLVER , 2010).

3 18

Figure 1: Ajzen’s Theory of Planned Behaviour (TpB) Source: Adapted from Ajzen 2002, 2006

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

The research focus of this study is to investigate the extent to which AJZEN’s TpB can be used to explain and predict the intentions of households in Malta – a water stressed country – to install water efficient devices. On the basis of the theory, three main hypotheses are put forward, namely: H1: The stronger the attitude towards saving water the stronger the intention to install water saving devices H2: The stronger the subjective norms towards water saving devices the stronger the intention to install water saving devices H3: The stronger the perceived behaviour control towards water saving devices the stronger the intention to install water saving devices

Methodology In this study, the TpB was investigated by means of quantitative data collected via questionnaires in order to test whether the theory can be used to predict households’ intention to reduce water usage by installing water saving devices. Through the use of a structured questionnaire, primary data was collected. The questionnaire consisted of closed-ended questions and covered the constructs set out by the theory of planned behaviour as described in the hypotheses earlier. The constructs linking the hypotheses consisted of: Attitude, Subjective Norm, Perceived Behavioural Control and Intention. The Attitude construct consisted of eight items using a semantic differential scale whilst the other constructs of SN, PBC and Intention, each consisted of three items using a 7-point LIKERT-type scale appropriately described at either end (e.g. strongly disagree = 1 and strongly agree = 7). Before the study was commenced, any possible weaknesses in the questionnaire were investigated via piloting among ten people who fitted the parameters of the sample. The final questionnaire consisted of 17 items, details of which appear in Table 1. In addition, classificatory variables in terms of number of persons in the household, age of respondents, type of housing and locality, were also collected.

A purposeful sample from households in Malta was collected. People were chosen based upon whether the questionnaire would apply to them using choice parameters that made use of age, type of dwelling, and location of dwelling across the Island. The focus was primarily on testing the theory and not providing samples which can be generalised to the entire population.

Consequently, the sample size only needed to be large enough to carry out the statistical tests for the analysis. In this respect, a total sample of 150 com-

pleted questionnaires was collected.

Results Four person households accounted for 43.3% of respondents (the average size of household was 3.74, with a standard deviation of 1.2), while the mean age of respondents was 36.64 with a standard deviation of 6.39. This indicates that most of the respondents live in households which consist of families.

In terms of type of housing 16.1% lived in villas/bungalows; 22.0% in flats/ penthouses; 13.3% in maisonettes; 34.7 in terraced houses and 13.3% in town houses. A pie chart of the results of housing type can be seen in Figure 2.

To be able to test the relationships indicated in the model, it is necessary to test the concepts for validity and reliability. Validity was tested by means of factor analysis. The items that made up the constructs were subjected to a principal component factor analysis followed by an Oblimin Rotation. An Oblimin Rotation was used because the theory indicated that the constructs are correlated (CHURCHILL JR , 1996). The results of the factor analysis provide support for convergent validity (with each set of items belonging to a particular construct loading together) and discriminant validity (with each set of items belonging to different constructs loading in separate columns) – see Table 1. The results show that in the case of items 9 to 17 these loaded together under each of the constructs and therefore provide support for these aspects of validity. In the case of the items making up Attitude toward Saving Water, these split into two dimensions with items 1, 4 and 7 loading together and whilst items 2, 3, 5, 6, 8 load on another dimension. The former seem to relate to the enjoyable nature of reducing water usage, and the latter appear to deal primarily with the value and importance of reducing water usage – see Table 1.

The reliability of the constructs was tested using the Cronbach alpha which provides a score between 0 to 1. Reliability is supported if the Alpha score exceeds 0.70 (NUNNALLY, 1967). Results provide support for reliability with reported alpha scores of .86; .89; .86; .75; .85 and .82 for Attitude towards Saving Water – enjoyment; Attitude towards Saving Water – value; Attitude towards Saving Water; Subjective Norms – Install Water Saving Devices; Perceived Behavioural Control – Install Water Saving Devices and Intention – Install Water Saving Devices, respectively.

Having established support for aspects of validity and reliability of the constructs used in the research, the items making up each construct were summed up so that they could be used in further analysis. The main task was to test the three hypotheses in this research and in order to do this, multiple regression was employed. The independent variables consisted of Attitude towards Saving Water (H1), Subjective Norms relating to the Installation of Water Saving Devices (H2), and Perceived Behavioural Control relating to the Installation of Water Saving Devices (H3) with Intention to Install Water Saving Devices as the outcome variable. Results indicate an adjusted R2 that explains 54% (F=58.59; p<.01) of the variance in the outcome variable. In addition, the coefficients which were obtained provide support for the three hypotheses with standardised betas for Attitude of .13 (p<.05); for SN of .32 (p<.01) and for PBC of .45 (p<.01).

The results of the cross-tabulations show that the classificatory factors which were collected generally have no statistically significant effect on the constructs employed in their model.

The only exception is the effect of Type of Residence. Here, Perceived Behaviour Control to Install Water Saving Devices (F=3.75; p<0.01) as well as the actual Intention to Install Water Saving

Figure 1: Pie Chart showing the results of the type of residence

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

3 19

Table 1: Descriptive statistics for items making up constructs plus results of Principal Component Factor Analysis with an Oblimin Rotation Mean

Std. Deviation

1. Troublesome/easy

3.88

1.27

2. Un/necessary

5.26

1.59

3. Harmful/beneficial

6.10

1.19

4. Un/pleasant

4.31

1.52

5. Bad/Good

6.04

1.22

6. Worthless/Valuable

6.11

1.16

7. Un/enjoyable

3.81

1.50

F1

F2

F3

F4

.700 .717 .847 .843 .893 .895 .870

6.06

1.26

41.58

7.71

.

9. As a household, I/we are looking at installing water efficient appliances/equipment in the coming months.

3.47

1.82

.833

10. My household is [choose one] to install water efficient appliances/ equipment in the coming months to limit water consumption.

3.67

1.84

.858

11. Many households like mine are seeking to install water efficient appliances/equipment in the coming months.

3.99

1.48

.801

11.13

4.53

12. For my household to install water saving appliances/equipment during the coming months would be:

4.29

1.61

.692

13. If I/we wanted to, my household could install water saving appliances/equipment during the coming months.

4.55

1.70

.859

14. How much control do you believe your household has in installing water saving appliances/equipment during the coming months?

4.57

1.62

.869

8. Useless/ful Attitude towards Saving Water

Subjective Norms – Install Water Saving Devices

F5

.867

13.41

4.35

15. What is the probability that your household will install or replace appliances/equipment so that it can reduce its water consumption during the coming months?

4.53

2.43

.755

16. How interested would your household be in installing or replacing appliances/equipment so that it can reduce its water consumption during the coming months?

4.81

1.57

.901

17. How likely would your household be to install or replace appliances/equipment so that it can reduce its water consumption during the coming months?

4.16

1.63

.840

13.49

4.94

Perceived Behavioural Control – Install Water Saving Devices

Intention – Install Water Saving Devices

Devices (F=2.57; p<0.05) are statistically significantly higher among respondents from terraced houses, followed by those from villas and bungalows, as shown in Table 2.

Discussion The research focus sought to determine whether AJZEN’s Theory of Planned Behaviour could be used to explain and predict Maltese households’ intention to install water efficient devices. Using the theory it was possible to investigate how Attitudes, SN and PBC affect the Intention to behave in a certain way. In this case it was seen how Attitudes towards saving water, Subjective Norms related to Install Water Saving Devices, and Perceived Behavioural Control related to Install Water Saving Devices, all have an effect on the Intention to Install Water Saving Devices. This study gives weight to the possibility that the TpB can also be applied to explaining and understanding people’s intentions relating to other “green” technologies

3 20

such as energy saving technologies and recycling.

The results also show that Maltese respondents are generally ambivalent in their attitude toward saving water as most of the respondents chose the middle of the scale when replying with answers ranging from 3.37 to 3.99 on a 7-point scale and an overall mean of 3.71 (SD: 1.51). The result of the multiple regression shows that the factor which had the most effect on people’s intention to install water saving devices was Perceived Behavioural Control. Interestingly, cross tabulations attest to the fact that those people who tended to have the highest likelihood of behaving in the desired way live in terraced houses, villas and bungalows. These are households whose members are likely to have more disposable income and who live in relatively modern houses with no common areas that may result in disputes among neighbours.

make them more aware of water saving techniques is to demonstrate how easy some of these techniques are, and to show them that implementation is not very difficult. This might cause people to believe that they have a higher amount of control over their own behaviour and they may be more likely to act in the desired way. Therefore, the results suggest that the way to capture people’s attention on the subject and change their behaviour could be through educational campaigns aimed at increasing people’s awareness about the ease of implementing water saving techniques in their homes.

In the circumstances, it can be suggested that the way to target people and

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

References

Table 2: ANOVA Test for Constructs by Type of Residence N

Attitude Toward Water Usage

24

43.54

5.77

Flat/Penthouse

33

40.91

9.19

Maisonette

20

45.00

5.12

Terraced House

52

40.60

7.64

Town house/H of character

20

39.45

8.71

149

41.58

7.74

Villa/Bungalow

24

10.92

4.52

Flat/Penthouse

33

11.45

5.34

Maisonette

20

10.95

3.86

Terraced House

52

11.71

4.45

Town house/H of character

20

9.65

4.02

149

11.15

4.54

Villa/Bungalow

24

13.75

3.93

Flat/Penthouse

33

13.18

5.44

Maisonette

20

12.55

3.49

Terraced House

52

14.83

3.47

Town house/H of character

20

10.75

4.59

149

13.44

4.36

Total Perceived Behavioural Control – Install Water Saving Devices

Total

Intention to Install Water Saving Devices

Std. Deviation

Villa/Bungalow

Total

Subjective Norms – Install Water Saving Devices

Mean

Villa/Bungalow

24

14.21

4.77

Flat/Penthouse

33

12.94

6.02

Maisonette

20

12.30

3.40

Terraced House

52

14.85

4.42

Town house/H of character

20

11.30

5.10

149

13.50

4.96

Total

F

Sig.

2.07

.088

AJZEN, I., 1991, The Theory of Planned

Behavior, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Vol. 50, pp.179–211.

AJZEN, I., 2002, Attitudes, Encyclope-

dia of Psychological Assessment, Vol. 1, London: Sage Publications, pp.110–115.

AJZEN, I., September 2002 (Revised .80

.524

January, 2006). Constructing a TpB Questionnaire: Conceptual and Methodological Considerations [online] Available at: <http://people.umass. edu/aizen/pdf/tpb.measurement. pdf> [Accessed 10 August 2012].

ANGELAKIS, A.N., November 2003.

3.75

.006

Wastewater Recycling and Reuse in Malta, Malta Resources Authority, Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations [online] Available at: <http://www.mra. org.mt/Downloads/Publications/ FAO_Documents/wastewater_recycling_and_reuse_in_Malta.pdf> [Accessed 10 August 2012].

CHURCHILL JR., G.A., 1996. Basic Marke-

2.57

.040

ting Research, 3rd ed. The Dryden Press, Harcourt Brace College Publishers.

KINGSOLVER , B., April 2010. Fresh

Water [online] Available through National Geographic website at: <http://ngm.nationalgeographic. com/2010/04/water-is-life/kingsolver-text last> [Accessed 10 August 2012].

KNOX , G., October 2008. Water – A

Limitations, Conclusions and Potential for Future Research Like all studies this research is not without its limitations. The questionnaire was composed entirely of closed questions which was an asset for analysis but did not leave the respondents the option to elaborate on their opinions and observations on the subject. Another limitation that was encountered on a few occasions was that some households that are already very conscious of their water consumption had to answer negatively to the questions as they had already taken the measures suggested and had installed suitable devices in their households.

The aim of the study was to test theory and these results can be further investigated through additional replication studies. Future research could also consider using data collection via open ended questions that would also allow for qualitative analysis of people’s attitudes and intentions. Another possibility is to enhance the model by also

looking at other possible constructs that may impact intention.

Various governmental institutions and NGO’s could benefit by carrying out other similar studies grounded in the TpB. Such studies provide an insight into how people behave and the reasons behind their behaviour. In this way, policy makers and other stakeholders can increase their knowledge about how the general public views such behaviour. This can serve as a guide of what measures can be taken in order to seek to change the public’s behaviour into a more sustainable one.

Policy makers often tackle such issues from a legislative perspective, but this research shows that it is also possible and highly useful to consider water conservation issues from a behavioural perspective. If people change their water habits and show a disposition to introduce water saving devices, this would significantly cut down on water usage and demand.

■

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

crisis? Vigilio – Din L-Art Ħelwa [online] Available at <http://www.l-ikel.org/vigilo_oct_2008_gordon_knox_article.pdf> [Accessed 10 August 2012].

Malta Water Resources Review (MWRR), 2006. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations [online] Available at: <ftp://ftp.fao. org/docrep/fao/009/a0994e/a0994e. pdf> [Accessed 10 August 2012].

NATIONAL STATISTICS OFFICE (NSO) MALTA , September 2010. Demogra-

phic Review 2009 [online] Available at: <http://nso.gov.mt/statdoc/ document_view.aspx?id=2776&backurl=/themes/theme_page.aspx> [Accessed 10 August 2012].

NUNNALLY, J. C., 1967. Psychometric

Theory. New York: McGraw Hill.

3 21

Ecological Corridors in Land Use Planning Policy in Poland Anita Bernatek EGEA Krakow Jagiellonian University

Introduction

T

he overall concept of nature conservation changed by the end of the 20th century (JĘDRZEJEWSKA and JĘDRZEJEWSKI, 2009). Prior to this, there were two types of conservation. The first one involved the protection of ecologically valuable areas. This referred to the protection of select, usually small, highly preserved natural areas such as national parks or nature reserves. The second type of conservation involved the protection of specific species, as some species of animals, plants and fungi had received special conservation status.

Nowadays, more attention is being paid towards the protection of biodiversity (JĘDRZEJEWSKA and JĘDRZEJEWSKI , 2009). The importance of biodiversity has been recognised at the international scale, as evidenced by the establishment of the Convention on Biological Diversity at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (the Rio “Earth Summit”) in Rio de Janeiro on the 5 June 1992 (UN). According to the Convention, “biological diversity means the variability among living organisms (…); this includes diversity within species, between species and of ecosystems” (CONVENTION ON BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY, 1992).

Unfortunately, even with the establishment of certain conventions, biodiversity is still being threatened (HESTER and HARRISON, 2007). Growing urbanisation, increasing density of infrastructure and other ways of human impact on the environment

3 22

lead to the reduction of natural areas and thus to environmental fragmentation. The effect of fragmentation is not only observed in the population decline of certain species, but also in the reduction of genetic variation and in reduction of overall adaptability of the populations. Due to these factors, environmental fragmentation can cause biodiversity decline.

Nevertheless, various studies have confirmed that many species can still function in small subpopulations (socalled meta-populations), if only they have access to each other. Therefore it is fundamental to maintain ecological connectivity between isolated patches of the environment as this allows the exchange of animals and gene flow.

Hence, meta-populations can function properly and even small patches of the environment can be occupied by species. This draws attention to the problem regarding the protection of ecological corridors. It also indicates the possibility for a compromise between the requirements of biodiversity protection and land use policy to be achieved (JĘDRZEJEWSKA and JĘDRZEJEWSKI , 2009).

One of the main factors that land use planning policy-makers have to take into consideration is conservation of nature. Nature is a system where valuable natural areas can function properly only by maintaining an ecological continuity. Therefore, it is important to include the concept of ecological corridors in spatial planning policy, as this can help to avoid spatial conflicts in the future.

Objectives The aim of this paper is to identify and assess the implementation of the concept of ecological corridors in land use planning policy in Poland. The specific objectives are: 1. To explain the role of land use planning in ecological continuity protection.

2. To present the concept of ecological corridors in Polish land use planning systems.

3. To present the opinion of various people responsible for spatial plan-

ning at a regional level regarding the protection of ecological corridors.

4. To assess the status of ecological corridors in Polish law.

Methodology The objectives of this paper were reached through the analysis of legal documents relating to spatial planning policy in Poland, including: the National Spatial Development Concept, sixteen regional land management plans (one for each voivodeship), the Spatial Planning and Land Development Act of the 27 March 2003, and the Nature Conservation Act of the 16 April 2004.

Analysis of the regional land management plans was concentrated on those areas where the concept of ecological corridors was implemented. This included a description of the conditions of the region’s development, the objectives, principles and directions of spatial development and the evaluation. The concrete activities proposed in the plans for the protection of these corridors, were also assessed. This allowed the major problems associated with the protection of ecological continuity in Poland to be brought to light. Furthermore, individual indepth interviews were carried out with representatives of regional planning offices in order to gather their opinions regarding the protection of the ecological network in Poland.

Results Role of land use planning in ecological continuity protection It seems that land use planning is the perfect medium to introduce the principles of sustainable development for everyday life. This would also apply to nature conservation, particularly that of ecological continuity protection.

Future conflicts between biodiversity protection and human activities can be avoided by taking into account ecological corridors at the beginning of the planning stage.

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

As has previously been stated (JĘDRZEJEWSKA and JĘDRZEJEWSKI, 2009), some animals can live as a meta-population. They inhabit isolated patches of the environment, provided that a connection between patches is maintained. This ensures the exchange of specimens and gene flow between sub-populations. Therefore, protection of ecological continuity can coexist with socio-economic development, and hence land use.

In Poland, spatial planning policy is regulated by the Spatial Planning and Land Development Act of the 27 March 2003. According to this Act, spatial planning policy has a hierarchical structure, as illustrated in Figure 1.

The primary document at the national level is the National Spatial Development Concept, which outlines the framework of the Polish spatial policy.

This document sets the aims and objectives of sustainable development, along with the activities necessary to achieve it, and include the requirements of environmental protection.

At the regional level the primary documents are the regional land management plans. These plans create spatial policy for each voivodeship/region.

One of the goals of this policy is the rational use of natural resources and environmental management, while keeping in mind the principles of sustainable development.

At the local level, the municipal council must adopt the conditions and directions of spatial development in order to determine local spatial policy.

The local land management plan (zoning), which sets the exact conditions for land use of every parcel, is the legal expression of this policy.

Concept of ecological corridors in Polish land use planning system In Poland, ecological corridors are not protected by law. The Nature Conservation Act of the 16 April 2004, only

provides a definition of the corridor.

However, neither the principles of its delimitation, nor any of its functions beyond migrations and rules of protection, are specified. Ecological networks are not required to be taken into account at any level of the planning system.

The current National Spatial Development Concept presents a vision of the country for 2030. According to the ecological continuity, it is stated that the national system of protected areas with ecological corridors ensures the integrity of a Natura 2000 network. It is stated that the system of corridors should have a hierarchical structure (Figure 1). The established and verified international and national corridors should be respected by all acts of planning and spatial policy strategies. It is required at both regional and local level to clarify and detail the ecological network. Moreover, the regional level is also responsible for identifying possible types of legal protection for corridors. However, it is also underlined that ecological corridors, as a type of protected area, are still not specified by law and there are no tools enabling their effective protection. This is very worrying, as this document shows the vision of the country in the next 20 years. It means that by 2030 the problem of ecological network protection in Poland will have not been solved.

Due to analysis conducted on the sixteen regional land management plans (one for each voivodeship), it can be stated that the concept of ecological corridors is included in all documents, at least in the description of the conditions for the development of specific regions. In the majority of the plans, protection of the ecological network is included in the objectives, principles and directions of land management.

However, the statements are often generalised and not concrete. On the other hand, in some plans there are several concrete propositions on how to protect ecological corridors, for example by the

construction of overpasses and wildlife passages, by reducing buildings and by increasing forest areas within the corridors. At the final stage of planning assessing the changes in spatial planning – only in the Pomeranian and the West Pomeranian region have direct statements made on how to measure progress within corridors’ protection.

Opinion of people responsible for spatial planning at regional level In addition, the analysis was extended by conducting individual in-depth interviews with representatives of regional planning offices from four regions (Figure 2). They were selected according to the following reasons: • Małopolska (Lesser Poland) and Podkarpackie (Subcarpathians) because of the importance of these regions in the maintenance of ecological connectivity within the Carpathian corridor, • Podlasie - because of the large areas of the region belonging to the ecological network, • Mazowsze (Mazovia) - because of the large number of the most vulnerable fragments of ecological corridors (Figure 2).

The opinions of the representatives of the following regions are presented in Table 1. Moreover the selected regions have plans that require updating and work on them is at a preliminary stage.

Assessment of the status of ecological corridors in Polish law In Poland, ecological corridors are not protected by law, their legal status is undefined. Almost 83% of the areas designated as ecological corridors are protected as part of forests and protected as areas under conservation law (JĘDRZEJEWSKI, 2009). However, the protection of ecological continuity is effective only if it includes the whole ecological network, not just isolated patches that fall under the protection of other environments.

The regulation of land use within corridors, as well as the rules for determining boundaries, have not yet been specified. Prohibitions, orders or recommendations included in planning documents have no legal sanction.

Figure 1: Scheme of the hierarchical spatial planning system in Poland and the possible implementation of ecological networks within it.

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

Moreover, in the scientific and planning community in Poland, there is no universally accepted concept of ecological corridors. At present, there are two different concepts of ecological corridors. In the 1990s, within the

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Figure 2: Ecological network in Poland with selected regions where the individual in-depth interviews were conducted Source: Author’s own based on Jędrzejewski (2009)

research project National Nature Plan (NNP) of the European Programme of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) scientists created an ecological network named ECONETPOLAND (LIRO, et al., 1995). However, this network is too generalised and does not sufficiently take into account barriers to the migration of organisms (KISTOWSKI and PCHAŁEK , 2009).

Moreover, it was created over 15 years ago and since then much of the land use has changed as new roads and highways have been developed and increasing urban sprawl has taken place.

3 24

The second concept was created in 2005 by the Mammal Research Institute of Polish Academy of Sciences (now the Institute of Biology of Mammals) for the Ministry of Environment, in cooperation with the Association for Nature “Wolf” and the Museum and Institute of Zoology. In this concept, corridors were determined primarily as areas with high forest cover and no building cover (or low density cover). The Natura 2000 sites were linked (JĘDRZEJEWSKI, et al., 2005). Nowadays this seems to be the most complete ecological network concept in Poland. However, it is poorly

distributed among planners. Unfortunately, the ECONET network, which is too generalised and outdated, is still the basis of most planning documents.

Conclusion The environmental awareness at both the national and regional level is relatively high and there seems to be a need for the protection of ecological continuity. The biggest problems occur at the local level where nature conservation is still seen as a barrier to the development. Additionally, ecological

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

Table 1: Opinion of representatives of selected regional planning offices

Mazowsze Region

Podlasie Region

• indication of two opportunities to protect corridors: 1. possibility of creating a new type of protected areas (ecological corridors); 2. possibility of using existing type of protected areas such as protected landscape areas; • opinion that too many types of protected areas will lead to chaos in law, and this would negatively affect nature protection; • highlighting the lack of understanding at the local level of potential new types of nature protection

• indication that large areas of the province is protected under conservation law, what already significantly reduces possibility of land management; • opinion that the Natura 2000 network is sufficient and in combination with existing types of protection it ensures ecological connectivity; • indication of the possibility for an eventual improvement of ecological connectivity through the introduction of local corridors linking the Natura 2000 areas, but without legislative sanction

Małopolska Region

Podkarpacie Region

• need for the creation of a new type of protected areas – ecological corridors; • observation of spatial conflicts between corridor protection and land management at the local level; • highlighting the lack of institutions/persons responsible for ecological network protection in Poland;

• need for protection of ecological continuity; • demonstration of a will to implement the concept of corridors at the provincial level; • highlighting the lack of legal instruments to enable effective corridors protection

• notes that the protection of corridors should be a governmental task, because its effectiveness depends on the coherence in the whole country; • indication of a potential problem with financing for the protection of corridors (including the payment of compensation to owners of land where corridors would be established)

corridors are seen as a source of new spatial conflicts.

scape and Urban Planning (55), pp.195–208.

Hierarchical spatial policy in Poland allows the gradual implementation of the ecological network concept at all levels of planning. Only through such a hierarchical implementation the protection of ecological continuity in Poland can be complete and therefore effective.

JĘDRZEJEWSKI , W., NOWAK , S., STACHURA , K., SKIERCZYŃSKI , M., MYSŁAJEK , R.W., NIEDZIAŁKOWSKI , K., JĘDRZEJEWSKI, B., WÓJCIK , J.M., ZALEWSKA , H. and PILOT, M., 2005.

The basic problem in the protection of ecological networks is an undefined legal status of ecological corridors in the Polish land use planning system. Only the creation of one ecological network with the right legal backing can ensure effective protection of ecological corridors and thus biodiversity in Poland.

Part of this work was done in cooperation with WWF Poland.

■

Projekt korytarzy ekologicznych łączących Europejską Sieć Natura 2000 w Polsce. Białowieża: Zakład Badania Ssaków PAN, pp. 1–78 [in Polish].

JĘDRZEJEWSKA , B. and JĘDRZEJEWSKI ,

W., 2009. Wpływ fragmentacji środowiska na populacje zwierząt i ochrona łączności ekologicznej. In: Jędrzejewski, W. and Ławreszuk, D. eds. Ochrona łączności ekologicznej w Polsce. Białowieża: Zakład Badania Ssaków PAN, pp. 13–18 [in Polish].

LIRO, A. ed., 1995. Koncepcja krajowej

sieci ekologicznej ECONET-POLSKA. Warszawa: Fundacja IUCN Polska, pp. 1–205 [in Polish].

National Spatial Development Concept 2030, 2012 (M.P. 2012, poz. 252).

Nature Conservation Act of the 16 April 2004 (Dz.U. Nr 92, poz. 880, with changes).

Spatial Planning and Land Development Act of the 27 March 2003 (Dz.U. Nr 80, poz. 717, with changes).

THE UNITED NATIONS, 1992. Convention

of Biological Diversity [online] Available at: <http://www.cbd.int/history/> (Accessed 7 January 2013).

JĘDRZEJEWSKI , W. 2009. Sieć ko-

References HESTER , R.E. and HARRISON, R.M. eds.,

2007. Biodiversity under Threat.

Environmental Science and Technology (25), Cambridge: Royal Society of Chemistry, pp. 1–214.

HESS, G.R. and FISCHER , R.A., 2001.

Communicating clearly about conservation corridors. In: Land-

rytarzy ekologicznych łączących obszary chronione w Polsce. In: Jędrzejewski, W. and Ławreszuk, D. eds. Ochrona łączności ekologicznej w Polsce. Białowieża: Zakład Badania Ssaków PAN, pp. 71–82 [in Polish].

KISTOWSKI , M. and PCHAŁEK , M.

2009. NATURA 2000 w planowaniu przestrzennym – rola korytarzy ekologicznych. Warszawa: Ministerstwo Środowiska, pp.1–116 [in Polish].

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

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Permafrost Mapping in Southern Carpathians Flavius Sîrbu EGEA Timis�oara University of Timis�oara

Introduction

P

ermafrost is defined as subsoil material that remains at temperatures under 0°C for at least two consecutive years (HARRIS, et al., 1988). The aim of this paper is to present and propose a study methodology on mountain permafrost in Southern Carpathians.

In Romania the study of permafrost is a relatively new area of interest even though the first author to consider it is ICHIM (1978) who believed that permafrost could exist in the Carpathians at altitudes above 2,000 m and above the 0°C line. After this URDEA (1991, 1992, 1993, 2000) and URDEA and VUIA (2000) conducted a number of studies using the basal temperature of snow (BTS) and other geomorphologic methods to prove the existence of alpine permafrost in the Southern Carpathians. The first prediction model was developed

by SZEPESI (1998-1999) for the Iezer Massif, situated in the eastern part of the Southern Carpathians. This was followed by URDEA , et al. (2001) with a model for permafrost at Detunatathe site at the lowest altitude at which it was proven that permafrost is situated in the Carpathians, and by TÖRÖK-OANCE (2004) who created the first prediction model for permafrost that works in the Retezat Massive in the Pietrele and Stanisoara valleys. It is only in recent years that geo-physical investigations have been carried out in Romania in order to map and study areas with permafrost, especially on rock glaciers (URDEA , et al., 2008).

The higher areas of the Southern Carpathians are characterised by a periglacial regime with a Mean Annual Air Temperature (MAAT) between 0.2°C at Balea Lac station at 2,038 m above sea level (ASL). The mean annual precipitation is between 850 mm and 1280 mm and the snow cover for the last 50 years was between 210 and 260 days per year (VESPERMEANU-STROE , et al., 2008), conditions that make these areas the perfect candidate for permafrost investigation.

3 26

Owing to the size of the area and to the difficult terrain of the Southern Carpathians a direct investigation by geophysical methods or by BTS of all the areas with permafrost, even simply for the purpose of mapping these areas, would be very costly and time consuming. Therefore the best way to map all the areas with permafrost is to create a prediction model for permafrost based on a detailed study of known areas with permafrost in several different parts of the mountain range.

There are several models made with the purpose of predicting areas with permafrost which are successfully used in the Alps, models such as PERMAKART (KELLER , 1992) which uses slope, altitude and aspect as variables; PERMAMAP (HOELZLE , 1992) which uses the potential of direct solar radiation, MAAT and the results from BTS as variables.

Due to the isolated character of the permafrost in Romania, the purpose of this study is to create a permafrost prediction model for the Southern Carpathians based on statistical analysis in conjunction with GIS analysis between BTS measurements, thermal investigation and morphometrical parameters of the area. In order to test the model and also to fine tune it geophysical investigations will be used (Figure 1).

Proposed methodology The first step will be to create a very detailed digital elevation model (DEM) of the study area. The best available DEMs for the Southern Carpathians have a resolution of 10 or 30 meters which is insufficient for the proposed study. The solution for this will be to generate a DEM using a topographical model with a horizontal and vertical resolution which would be sufficient for observing all the details of the terrain that may be important for this study. For the smaller areas investigated this will be achieved by creating a grid with 1m by 1m squares and at every node a topographical point will be surveyed, registering longitude, latitude and altitude measured using a topographical total station. This will produce a DEM with one meter resolution. For the larger study sites, an approach based on the geomorphologic forms of sites will be used. This means that, the areas will be mapped at a one meter resolution. For the larger formations like frontal and lateral waves of the rock glaciers the defining points (foot, ridge of the wave) will be mapped and an interpolation method will be used to create the DEM. From the resultant DEM a set of morphometrical parameters for every investigated area will be extracted.

The parameters that will be used are as follows: lowest altitude of the area, highest altitude of the area, relative altitude of the area, relative altitude from the highest tree line, area, slope (extracted for every pixel), general slope of the area, slope of the frontal wave (in case of RG), slope of the lateral wave (in case of RG), aspect and potential of direct solar radiation.

Figure 1: The location of the study areas in the Southern Carpathians

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

Additionally, the two parameters of texture and vegetation cover (measured on site) will also be used. The texture can be calculated by averaging the volume of the boulders from within each study site. The area covered by vegetation will be mapped separately with the use of a differential GPS. The thermal investigation of the study areas will be conducted by using data loggers that measure the temperature of the ground and the air every hour.

Additionally, data from local weather stations were included where they were available.

BTS was originally described by HAEBERLI (1973) who used it to prove the existence of permafrost in the Alps. It consists of measuring the ground temperature of soil/rock covered by at least 80 cm of snow (Figure 2). The snow layer is considered to be an almost perfect temperature insulator and thus the ground temperature is not influenced by the air temperature. The best time to undertake BTS is between February and April. So as to integrate the data from the BTS in the permafrost prediction model developed in this study, the measured temperatures were classified according to HOELZLE (1992): • above ‐20°C permafrost is non-existent; • ‐20°C to ‐30°C permafrost is possible; • below ‐30°C permafrost is probable.

in Canada (EVIN, et al., 1997).

The first one is direct current (DC) resistivity tomography, and is based on the fact that different materials have a significantly different electrical resistivity to each other and that frozen materials have a greater electrical resistivity than unfrozen materials (HAUCK , 2001) (Table 1). The large range of electrical resistivity values for most materials is due to other factors that influence it, such as the degree of water saturation, its chemical properties, the temperature and the structure of the pore water (KNEISEL , et al., 2007).

Another important factor that has to be considered when performing a DC resistivity sounding on rock glaciers is the size of the boulders. Rock glaciers with a finer texture are ideal for this method due to their homogeneity. The ones with bigger boulders present two practical problems. The first of these is the likely difficulty to maintain a straight line for the electrodes, and the second one is the difficulty to maintain a perfect or even sufficient contact between the electrodes and the rocks (HAUCK , 2001). This investigation has been done using a PASI 16GS24N model with an array of 32 electrodes that can be positioned with up to 5 m between them giving it a total range of 160 m and a depth up to several tens of meters, depending on the array used: the Wenner, the Wenner-Schlumberger, or the Dipole-Dipole arrays (Figure 3).

Table 1: Electrical resistivity of different materials Material

Eletrical resistivity [Ωm]

water

102-103

sand

102-103

sandstone

10-10 4

limestone

102-10 4

dolomite

102-10 4

gneiss

10-103

polar permafrost

102-10 4

alpine permafrost

10 4-106

glacier ice

106-107

Source: after Hoekstra, et al., 1975, Telford, et al., 1990, Milsom, 1996 cited by Hauck 2001

electromagnetic pulse bounces back from an object or from a border line between two materials it is then received by a different antenna mounted behind the first one (Figure 4). The system measures the travel time between transmitter and receiver and also the amplitude of the reflected signal (FARBROT, et al, 2005).

Conclusions and discussions This study is intended to produce the first results at the end of 2013 after one year of thermal monitoring and after BTS measurements are taken and geophysical investigations are carried out.

The study is expected to produce a map of the areas with possible permafrost in the Southern Carpathians which could be the basis for further studies to create detailed maps of the areas with permafrost or on the dynamics and ■ evolution of these areas.

References EVIN, M., FABRE , D. and JOHNSON, P.G.,

1997. Electrical Resistivity Measurements on the Rock Glaciers of Grizzly Creek, St Elias Mountains, Yukon. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes. Vol. 8, pp.179–189.

FARBROT, H., ISAKSEN, K., EIKEN, T., KÄÄB, A., SOLLID, J.L., 2005. Com-

Figure 1: The Probe use for BTS measurements

To validate the model using geophysical investigation methods, this study will employ two methods that were used successfully in other studies regarding alpine permafrost in the Alps (GARDAZ , 1997; HAUCK , 2005; KNEISEL and KÄÄB, 2007; HILBICH, et al., 2009), in Svalbard (FARBROTET, al., 2005) and

The second geophysical investigation will consist of a GPR (ground penetrating radar) investigation using a Mala GPR with two different set of antennas, one of 50 Hz and one of 100 Hz. This method utilises high frequent electromagnetic pulses transmitted into the ground by an antenna and after the

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

position and internal structures of a rock glacier on the strandflat of western Spitsbergen, Svalbard.

Norwegian Journal of Geography 59:2. Norsk Geografisk Tidsskrift, pp.139–148.

GARDAZ , J.-M., 1997. Distribution of

Mountain Permafrost, Fontanesses Basin, Valaisian Alps, Switzerland.

Permafrost and Periglacial Processes. Vol. 8, pp.101–105.

HAEBERLI , W., 1973. Die Basis-Tempera-

tur der winterlichen Schneedecke

3 27

interscience.wiley.com> with DOI: 10.1002/esp.1488 [Accessed 2012].

SZEPESI , A., 1998–1999. Gibtestim Ieyer

Gebirge Dauerfrotböden? Studii şi cercetări de Geografie. Vol. XLV– XLVI, Bucureşti: Edit. Academiei, pp.51–60.

SZEPESI , A., 2007. Masivul Iezer. Ele-

mente de geografie fizică. Bucureşti: Edit. Universitară, p.208.

TÖRÖK-OANCE , M., 2004. Geographic

Information Systems as a tool for permafrost investigation. A case study in the west part of Southern Carpathians (Romania). Geomorphologia Slovaca. Vol. 1. Bratislava.

URDEA , P., 1991. Rock glaciers and Figure 3: DC resistivity mesurements using PASI 16GS24N with a 1 meter distance between the electrodes (photo: Florina Ardelean)

other periglacial phenomena in the Southern Carpathians, Analele Univiersităţi din Oradea – Fascicula Geografie, pp.13–26.

URDEA , P., 1992. Rock glaciers and peri-

glacial phenomena in the Southern Carpathians. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes. Vol. 3. John Wiley & Sons, pp.267–273.

URDEA , P., 1993. Permafrost and pe-

riglacial forms in the Romanian Carpathians. Proceedings of Sixth International Conference on Permafrost. Vol. 1. South China University of Technology Press, pp. 631–637.

URDEA , P., 2000. Munţii Retezat. Studiu

Geomorfologic. Bucureşti: Edit.

Academiei Române, p.272.

URDEA , P. and VUIA , F., 2000. Aspects of

the periglacial relief in the Parâng Mountains. Revista de Geomorfologie. Vol. 2, pp.35–39.

Figure 4: GPR measurements using 100Hz antennas

als möglicher Indikator für die Verbreitung von Permafrost in den Alpen. Zeitschrift für Gletscherkunde und Glazialgeologie 9, pp.221–227.

HARRIS, S.A., FRENCH , H.M., HEGINBOTTOM , J.A., JOHNSTON, G.H., LADANYI , B., SEGO, D.C. and VAN EVERDINGEN,

R.O., 1988. Glossary of Permafrost and Related Ground-Ice Terms, Ottawa: National Research Council of Canada, p.156.

HAUCK , C., 2005. Detecting and Moni-

toring Frozen Ground and Unfrozen Water Content Using Electric and Electromagnetic Techniques.

HILBICH , C., MARESCOT, L., HAUCK , C., LOKE , M.H. and MÄUSBACHER , R.,

2009. Applicability of Electrical Resistivity Tomography Monitoring to Coarse Blocky and Ice-rich Permafrost Landforms. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes. Vol. 20, issue 3, pp.269–284. [online] Available through Wiley InterScience at <http://www.interscience.wiley.

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com> with DOI: 10.1002/ppp.652 [Accessed 2012].

HOELZLE , M., 1992. DC Resistivity Soun-

dings 1992 in North-Western Svalbard. Versuchsanstalt für Wasserbau, Hydrologie und Glaziologieder ETH Zürich. Arbeitsheft [working paper] 13.

KELLER , F., 1992. Automated mapping

of mountain permafrost using the program Permakart within the Geographical Information System Arc/Info. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes. Vol. 3, pp.133–138.

KNEISEL , C. and KÄÄB, A., 2007. Moun-

tain permafrost dynamics within a recently exposed glacier forefield inferred by a combined geomorphological, geophysical and photogrammetrical approach Earth Surface Processes and Landforms.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms. Vol. 32, issue 12., pp.1797–1810 [online] Available through Wiley InterScience at <http:// www.

URDEA , P., TÖRÖK-OANCE , M., ARDELEAN, M. and VUIA , F., 2001–2002. Aplicaţii

ale S.I.G. în investigarea permafrostului sporadic de la Detunata Goală (Munţii Apuseni). Analele Universităţii de Vest din Timişoara, Seria Geografie. Vol. XI-XII, pp.7–16.

URDEA , P., ARDELEAN, F., ONACA , A., ARDELEAN, M. and TÖROK-OANCE , M.,

2008. Application of DC resistivity tomography in the alpine area of Southern Carpathians (Romania).

In: KANE , D.L., HINKEL , K. eds., Ninth International Conference on Permafrost. Fairbanks, AK: Institute of Northern Engineering, University of Alaska, pp. 323–333.

VESPERMEANU-STROE , A., URDEA , P., TATUI , F., CONSTANTINESCU, S., PREOTEASA , L., VASILE , M. and POPESCU,

R., 2008. Date noi privind morfologia lacurilor glaciare din Carpaţii Meridionali. Revista de geomorfologie. Vol. 10, pp.73–87.

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

LECTURE REPORT

The Coming Age of Ambient Information and What It Means for Geography Critical report by

Marthe Wens with assistance of

Willem Schoors EGEA Leuven KULeuven Lecture by

Ed Parsons Introduction

I

n Leuven’s biggest aula, an honoured and expectant audience welcomed ED PARSONS of Google Earth, Google Maps and Maps for Mobile. This man started to make us comfortable by saying: “It looks like I’m among friends” and he flattered us when he used the sentence: “Geography is the one true science of our planet”. Mr. Parsons tried, together with his audience, to look into the future of Google, a goal that is successfully achieved. He showed us that geography is absolutely crucial in the future of information systems, how we live in our world and our lives on the internet.

The internet has already changed our society, he explained. It brought with it internationalisation and interdisciplinarity, which are also needed at university level. Maybe you think it is not obvious to link the internet with geography? In order to do this you have to know that geography is still at the core of all that we do, and thus it is

crucial in the future development of the internet and ED PARSONS convinced us of this in his lecture.

The chief geospatial technologist of Google talked about three topics: 1. Making an impact?

2. The annotated world 3. User interface redux (how we access information) Google is about finding information.

To find relevant information, there is a filter, specific to each individual user.

Geography makes that function. Everyone needs geography; geography has an impact on everyone, every day. As geographers, we understand this, but most of the people do not realise it.

1. Making an impact?

Geography can be very powerful. There is for instance the impressive image of Earth in the darkness of space: the “blue marble” (1968). Only 20 astronauts have seen it like this in real life, so it is a special view. In that picture you can see the fragility of the earth, you can experience the feeling: “There is no other place…”.

Google did make an impact on us, on our view of the world and it still does.

This created an effective way to transfer information on to maps. When you search for something on the internet, the exact answer will be there. You will not receive some links to websites that might answer the question.

Behind the scenes, geography is utilised so as to find that exact answer.

The filter is based on geographical systems. Using this filter, Google can show answers which are relevant and personal for each user. Everything depends on the individual context, on the place the user is located and on the way the user behaves. Google knows where you live, what you like and what you are interested in. To sum up, Google remembers your history.

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

In 2020, there will be 25 billion devices that are linked to the internet. To cite an example: with their smartphones, a lot of people are almost permanently logged in on Facebook. Most people will have about six devices with which they are connected to the internet. The devices like PCs, GPS, GSMs are like sensors, they can capture a lot of spatial information - the internet = the internet of sensors.’

This emerging network means that accessibility to the internet has increased. Google Earth exhibits the blue marble for everybody, and they have one billion users every month, as Mr PARSONS acknowledged. The globe is now a tool to obtain geospatial information. Only ten years ago, it was still hard to get that same information.

But do we need all this information so quickly? Is it necessary to have the possibility to go on the internet every minute we want? Can it be dangerous if it is misused?

The impact of this network also implies that the anonymity has decreased. Only 15 years ago, an influential phrase was coined: “on the internet, nobody knows you’re a dog” (STEINER , 1993). Nowadays, the internet is personalised. There is a system that gives people spatial information which is tailored to a specific time and space.

Three pillars of context allow this relevant information to be identified for you. Geography is very important in those three filters: 1. Intent (the search box will propose things, it makes a calculated guess on your goal); 2. Location (the internet gives only solutions within close proximity of your physical location, so selecting will become easier); 3. Personalisation (there is also a filter in your social network and they are aware of your internet history).

2. The annotated world How is all this information collected?

How do you get that personalisation?

Google Maps does not present just one map, but exists composite of several layers that can be chosen according to the information of interest. This is impossible on paper maps, where you permanently have to extract and ignore spatial data. Digital maps are interactive; they only show the specific information which is relevant to the time that you need it! With those dynamic maps you can even zoom in to a 1:1 scale!

There is now the possibility to add your own information, pictures, etc. It is a quick way to populate an up-to-date database, where everyone helps to

3 29

facilitate your decisions. For instance, on Google Street View you can get reviews about prices of hotels, traffic jams, annotations, timetables of public traffic and so on. Even inside buildings you can use Wi-Fi to get spatial information, but perhaps, is this a bit too far-reaching?

Some other questions: Can you trust all the information on Google Maps and Google Earth? The government gives the spatial data of their country and they control your view of their area.

Do we believe that every government is 100% objective? And can you rely on the opinions of unknown, anonymous people?

ED PARSONS introduces us to the ‘circle

of trust’: You in the middle, around you is your family, then your friends, followers, etc. Internet experts investigated a way to find out who is in your “circle” and when they know this, they ensure that the reviews you get on the internet, are familiar to you.

3. User interface redux Will paper maps become extinct, because there will be a change in the use of maps? Ed Parsons thinks so, and maybe it is true. Maps will certainly have to adjust: “the map of the future is not a map”. The accessibility to maps has already changed a lot. You can get every map on a tablet and on mobile

devices. However, ED PARSONS stresses: some things are indispensable. For instance, the MERKATOR projection is still in use. Even Google earth uses it, because of its equal-squared character.

Maps have already changed; you can now generate your own personal map in no time. The internet recognises and can pinpoint where you live and all the places you have visited on a map.

Nowadays maps are more customised and more technically orientated. You can experience the parallax effect and see things in 3D. The internet browser is very powerful now, and this is all something which was impossible with the older maps.

What, in fact does, cartography mean when you have a dynamic platform?

Mr PARSONS predicts that the maps of the future will give spatial information not only via map, but more directly.

Google is all about the context now.

They know your agenda, location and personal map. In the future it will may even be your glasses (“Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic” is a quote that represents this prediction very well).

However, not everyone is excited for such developments. Is it not more useful to map the land use or the soil of a region? A person in the audience remarked: “Maybe Google will gain too large of a monopoly over our thoughts… They control our view of the

world and the information we can get.

The internet only shows what you like, and it does not give you an objective idea of the world/environment…”. Mr PARSONS reassures us a bit when he tells us that it is possible that the coming age will be one of ‘calm technology’. People will become critical against gadgets, because they have become too powerful. But his answer does not expel all of our concerns.

Conclusion “Does every piece of information have to be accessible?”, is a question you can ask after this lecture. It seems that in the future this will be the case.

There are some less positive aspects as a result of this progress. Dangerous regimes can abuse of all of the information at the tip of our finger, and all those gadgets and applications can induce increasing egocentrism. It can create “bubbles” around people, so that they are off their own little world and cannot think realistically anymore.

There are definitely a lot of positive effects of this evolution: It is certainly a lot easier for public services to gain data, and it is a lot easier if you can reach that data at every moment you need. But we have to be aware that it is a computer, there is always someone who put that information on it for you, and it can be subjective…

■

LECTURE REPORT

Modelling Land Use Changes Ema Corodescu EGEA Ias�i University of Ias�i Lecture by

Eric F. Lambin Introduction

T

he aim of this report is to outline the main aspects presented during the Modelling Land Use Changes lecture, held by professor ERIC F. LAMBIN. The lecture referred to a highly actual theme - land use chan3 30

ges caused by various factors in the Globalization Era, focusing on forest areas.

The main issue taken into consideration was the preservation of forest ecosystems and the maintenance of their economic value in the context of increased demand for food products.

The professor adopted a deep, interdisciplinary approach, considering geographic, economic, political and social aspects of the problem. The lecture started with a consistent presentation of the recent forest transition occurring in some developing countries, continued by highlighting the displacement effect and the role of niche commodities in the global market and finished with a brief outline of instruments of intervention to land use.

This was the first and main part of the lecture which revealed some good examples of countries that, after a period of deforestation, started the process of reforestation. The pathways of forest transition, based on off-farm employment, forest resource scarcity, state forest agencies policy, comparative advantage on the global market and smallholder, tree-based land use intensification (LAMBIN and MEIFROIDT, 2010), are highly connected to the economic changes attracted by globalisation. It is obvious to remark that the majority of these pathways (exceptstate forest policy, which is mainly connected to environmental protection measures) are determined by the economic demands on the global market. Consequently, we observe how almost the same economic forces, that once used to encourage deforestation

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

(and still encourage it in many parts of the world), then became pathways of reforestation. This is a new relevant example of how the economy works cyclically.

Displacement effect The lecture continued by highlighting one important consequence of this transition: displacement effect. This refers to the fact that certain land use restrictions/changes adopted somewhere will attract a migration of the displaced activities to another area, where the land use will change accordingly. This situation was very well explained by the example of Vietnam: the national scale reforestation taking place in this country between 1992 and 2006, which was achieved by the displacement of forest extraction in other countries (especially Laos and Cambodia). Moreover, half of the log imports from Laos and Cambodia to Vietnam were illegal. Then, Vietnam banned the exports of raw logs and started to produce and export furniture, protecting its forests and relying on neighboring countries’ resources (MEYFROIDT and LAMBIN, 2009).

Niche commodities In this part of the lecture, Professor LAMBIN presented a category of industries, which produce specialised goods and services, sold in limited amounts at high prices. Such industries rely on unique ecosystems, use rare raw materials and include a thorough manufacturing process. The example for illustrating how such an industry works was the argan oil industry. The

main resource for this industry are argan woodlands in southern Morocco, where tree density decreased by 44.5% between 1970 and 2007, as the oil sales did not induce the replanting of trees. However, at the same time, tree protection increased due to the land privatization. Apart from this, effects of argan oil production on the livelihood of local people are really visible, due to many factors, such as: resource scarcity and variability, price instability, low price transfer to producers and entry barriers into export markets (LE POLAIN DE WAROUX and LAMBIN, 2012).

Again, the strong link-up between global market demands and land use changes is visible.

In conclusion, the lecture focused on a very complex and important problem, which was very well presented and explained. In my opinion, the most important aspect of this lecture was that professor Lambin presented his own work and made references to his methodology of work during the entire lecture. It is really important for us, as students, to remember that behind such a presentation, the work of geographer must have included remote sensing image processing, census data finding, statistic modelling, etc and only in the end – analysis and interpretation. All these steps are crucial for us as future geographers or even ■ planners.

Intervention on land use At the end of the lecture, the focus of the discussion was on the two main types of intervention on land use: supply-side interventions which consist of decisions taken by local producers and demand-side interventions which include the transfer of the global market demand to local producers, in order to promote a sustainable land use. The second approach is the adequate one, and, in order to apply it, some instruments are available: certification, labels and standards, moratoria, roundtables, targeted NGO campaigns, payments for ecosystem services (LAMBIN and MEIFROIDT, 2010).

Certainly, not all these instruments are available, especially in developing countries which face the greatest land use problems. They should be combined and adapted to specific situations and, finally, included into more complex strategies.

References LAMBIN, E.F and MEIFROIDT, P. 2010.

Land use transitions: Socio-ecological feedback versus socio-economic change. Land Use Policy. Vol. 27, pp.108–118.

LE POLAIN DE WAROUX , Y. and LAMBIN,

E.F., 2012. Monitoring degradation in arid and semi-arid forests and woodlands: The case of the argan woodlands (Morocco). Applied Geography. Volume 32, issue 2, pp.777–786.

MEYFROIDT, P. and LAMBIN, E.F., 2009.

Forest transition in Vietnam and displacement of deforestation abroad. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA106, pp.

16139-16144.

LECTURE REPORT

Discussing the New Geography of International Politics Lara Zemite EGEA Kiel Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel Lecture by

Dirk Vandewalle Since the day that national states came into being, their role has been changing, their status

has been challenged and new institutions have arisen, urging to take their place. In geopolitics the different relationships between power, state, citizens, territory and location are analysed.

this system is the state whose role is constantly changing. Technological development has had its impact on the changing role of the state, too. In the rapid development of globalisation new ways of looking at states have arisen.

These have led to new geographies of international politics which are closely interwoven with states.

International relations are also influenced by these factors and they created varying geographies of international politics. An important actor in

The argument that the power and sovereignty of the state is being undermined and lessened has been

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

3 31

mentioned for some time now. The changing circumstances both economically and culturally have led to a very strong defence of this statement.

New possibilities for people to communicate, interact and gain information has meant that varying ideas and opinions are more easily brought to a wider group of people. For instance, the usage of the internet has firstly carried all kinds of knowledge to most parts of the world. Secondly, it also has fostered a platform for (semi-)organised groupings to share these ideas and the possibilities to object to existing institutions also on an international level. The borders of a (national) state are no longer as strict a boundary as they might have been earlier. This has also proved true in the recent developments in the Arab world, during the Arab Spring, where resistance has been very much supported by new technologies. In other aspects these exact developments in the Arab world have shown that the earlier understandable relationship between government and state is getting confused and fuzzy. The thoughts and opinions of the people do not coincide with the action of the government anymore, so that protest is arising. This adds to the argument that the state is losing power as it is not accepted per se anymore.

Further on, international organisations or institutions are seen as another agent that is reducing the power of states. This is seen in Europe through the European Union which started out as an economic alliance that was also supposed to prevent political conflicts through good economic relations. Today it has developed into an institution that even works on a joint political direction for the member states. Thus, it means that new politics are made and one could even talk about a new map of Europe that has been established. The relationships have altered from the focus of intra-European politics to extra-European politics.

Also other kinds of actors have become active that represent a different society than before.

However, there are also movements against this development. National parties or groupings that dislike these changes are becoming visible. Another example are the occupy movements that started out as protests against the economic development and social injustice. These are organised differently in different countries, but still have similar goals. The competencies of the government are being challenged. This, as academics like STUART HALL have stated, is needed to reas-

3 32

sure the power of the existing ruling force. Power relations are upheld by the striking down of protests, so that old structures remain important. This then is an argument against the loss of competencies of the state and the remaining of its importance.

New international organisations such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have been founded and through their impact on economies of states are threatening their importance. These organisations work on an international level; in a way creating a new space where different geographies are made. It is no longer the state borders that are defining places, but networks that are upheld internationally. Connections and also power relations can be completely different than they were traditionally with the nation states. But again, we have not gotten so far that these organisations have taken over all competencies, they might not even strive for that. Nor have they replaced the states in their political and economic functions. Also states do resist that, as is seen by the recent developments of countries that are struck by economic crisis and need the help of, for instance, the IMF. Not all suggestions or advice are accepted and the states still demonstrate their own rights and also their borders that have existed for so long. In this way again politics are changing and ways of doing politics are altering, but the actors stay very much the same. This is true even if the initial situations and circumstances from economic relations are different.

Furthermore, the states’ functions are to support and protect economic activities. Globalisation is said to eradicate borders due to much more interwoven economies and some kind of non-localisation of actors. Usually this is said about transnational companies (TNCs) that are much freer to relocate and work than ever before. All kinds of circumstances have facilitated this.

Now TNCs are becoming players in the international political realm. They have a new power to influence the still existing states and their governments as they can also offer economic profits through created workplaces. However, it is still important to remember that the created new geographies of international politics that are influenced

by TNCs vary depending on the states they have influence on and where the TNCs are coming from. In places where there are already weaker structures, the influence of TNCs can potentially be bigger than in strong states.

From a different aspect of international politics and the development of these, it has to be mentioned that new players are joining the game. Traditionally countries from the Western World have been the most important actors for shaping politics as we know them. In the long run the economic power was situated there and gave, thus, power in the political domain as well. However, the situation has been changing. New economic powers are rising and gaining influence. The most prominent example is most likely China. Some decades ago it was just another state in Asia whose opinion in global processes was not given the highest priority. Today, though, the situation has changed. A lot of countries depend on China as a producer, but also as an investor. This gives China the power to influence some decisions. There is, however, concern about this development as the former leading countries have developed for a very long time to be actors in international politics. Thus, also the leadership for international economy that is important for all states has been in the hands of the Western World who have shaped it so far. If China decides to get active in these processes as well, there will be a shift of power to new places.

This will change the geographies of international politics, as the location of players and their relationships will be changed. This argument is not to be ignored, but still also the economic dependency of the new rising economic forces (states) on the old world is not to be ignored. Right now it is not possible to predict what the outcome will be.

The geographies of international politics have been changing since their beginning as nothing is standing still. However, with the upswing of globalisation and changing economic relations and dependencies of states, these have taken new, previously unseen directions. New powers and actors are emerging, their intentions are different and a shift away from the traditional Western world to other locations has been marked. Changes are still going on as new actors are joining the field and gaining power, as well as the possibilities of all actors have not been exploited to the fullest. Nonetheless, the state as basic policy shaping actor still remains important and does not seem to disappear in the nearest future, as there is enough resistance ■ from the states’ side.

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

WORKSHOP REPORT

Sprawl Maps Creation Case study of Kampala, Uganda Ema Corodescu EGEA Ias�i University of Ias�i Workshop Leaders

Anton Van Rompaey, Karolien Vermeiren

D

uring the EGEA Annual Congress 2013, a very interesting workshop, concerning urban sprawl took place. The activities carried out during this workshop can be divided into two main categories: theoretical basis of the topic (satellite image classification, logistic regression as a statistical method and the introduction in the Idrisi.16 GIS software) - comprehensibly explained by Professor ANTON VAN ROMPAEY and KAROLIEN VERMEIREN and practical work, which consisted in mapping urban sprawl, assessing future urban expansion and scenario-building – tasks performed in groups of four students each.

Mapping the urban sprawl In the first part of the workshop, we started making an image classification in order to map the urban sprawl of Kampala, capital city of Uganda. My group worked on 1989 and 2010 Landsat TM images and we chose a false colour composite (4 - red, 3 - green, 2 - blue), because we considered it as having the best contrast between built-up areas and not-built-up areas. In order to make the supervised classification, we defined three types of training areas (built-up, non-built-up and water pixels), constructed the spectral signatu-

res and we made the final classification using the minimum distance and the maximum likelihood techniques (but choosing the second one for the following tasks). In the end, we reclassified the pixels and combined the results obtained for 1989 and 2010 in order to draw a map of the new-built pixels during this time period.

When making such a classification, we have to take into consideration the appearance of the land-cover in different climate zones of the globe; for instance, in this situation, we could easily classify built-up/non-built-up pixels due to the presence of vegetation in almost all non-built-up areas (as we studied a humid-tropical area). If we had worked on a more arid zone, we would have probably observed numerous errors coming from patches of soil, which may have been misclassified as urban-built areas (VERMEIREN, 2012).

Assessment of future urban expansion In order to assess the urban expansion probabilities, the workshop leaders presented us with the logistic regression statistical method. This method is considered to be suitable for the present study because the outcome can only have two possible types (yes/ no - built-up/non-built-up), which are coded 0 and 1. The equation of this type of regression is: always taking values between 0 and 1 (HOSMER , 2000). By analysing the map results of the first part of the workshop, we observed the urban growth features: the sprawl occurred along the major roads, concentric from the city centre, near the existing built-up areas; flat, wetland areas were avoided.

Consequently, we chose the predicting variables: Distance to roads, distance to city centre, distance to existing built-up area, slope (extracted from DTM).

After the calibration test, all variables were included in the final equation of the model (HOSMER , 2000).

During the workshop, our leaders also referred to other types of models, which can be employed in such a study. Agent-Based Models, for example, assume that every agent (object, popu-

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

lation) would behave in such an order as to maximise its profit, by cooperating with other agents. Populations are represented at an elemental or individualistic level, but as these models operate from the bottom-up, they sometimes generate patterns at more aggregate levels. Cellular Automata Models are based on neighbourhood; they are often associated with a lattice of cells representing different land uses and every change in the cellular state has strong connection with the adjacent cell changes (KITCHIN, 2009).

In the 1970s, land use modelling was criticised (VERMEIREN, 2012) of being “hyper comprehensive, gross, hungry for data, wrong headed, complicated, mechanical and expensive” (LEE , 1973), but we cannot deny that it can contribute to the development of new approaches in urban planning in disadvantaged areas, as, for example, African cities.

The building of scenarios The last part of the workshop consisted of building some scenarios concerning the future urban growth. The scenarios referred to the urban sprawl between 2010 and 2020 and were generated by two main steps: assessment of the necessary area for the future built-up land and selections of the pixels having the highest urbanization probability (calculated by means of the logistic regression), until the required area is completed. We designed three types of scenarios: business as usual scenario (past trends continue, there is no intervention, nor planning policies), alternative scenario 1 (interventions on the existing infrastructure - building of new roads and the implementation of new satellite towns, to play the role of sub-centres) and alternative scenario 2 (introducing high-rise buildings in order to increase population density in the new urbanised areas).

Another possible scenario, not implemented during the workshop, could have been the restrictive scenario, based on forbidding the construction of new buildings in wetland areas (VERMEIREN, 2012). However, the majority of these areas were avoided in our scenarios, because they were included in pixels with low urbanization probability.

At the same time, we have to take into consideration that wetlands represent key zones as they are actually more attractive than our model shows, because they provide opportunities for farming, are relatively free from restriction and easily accessible for rural immigrants. Hence, on the one hand these areas have high potential of becoming slums but, on the other hand,

3 33

they represent a natural buffer zone between lake Victoria and the polluted city of Kampala, playing an important role in the local ecological equilibrium (KABUMBULI, 2009).

Throughout this part of the workshop, we managed to see the results of this model implementation and saw the clear growth pattern differences when we adopt a business as usual scenario or an alternative one. We could easily observe how the new-built-up pixels had a tendency to concentrate around satellite towns - in the first alternative scenario and how the same pixels have been reduced in number - in the second alternative scenario.

Finally, it is still difficult to state which scenario is the most adequate to be included in a future planning strategy and which other measures would be necessary, because both of our solutions have dark and light sides: if we focus on building new roads and developing new sub-centres, the urban sprawl extends, destroying the natural land cover and the ecological equilibrium. If, on the contrary, we adopt the high-rise buildings solution, we force the entire mass of new population to

rely on the existing infrastructure, jobs and public services, putting a greater pressure on the urban space and seriously damaging its functionality. I consider that the solutions proposed in these scenarios should be included in more complex planning strategies, able to focus, at the same time, on rural development projects and birth control policies.

Workshop Leader

Mathieu Kervyn Unfortunately, no maps could be provided for better illustration of the examples, as the publishing rights were not granted.

N

atural Hazards occur all over the world, they can be small scale events with short recurrence intervals, or large exceptional events. Nevertheless, both impact settlements, life lines and human populations (DIKAU and WEICH3 34

HOSMER , D.W.. 2000. Applied Logistic KABUMBULI , R.K.. 2009. Participatory

Conclusions In conclusion, this workshop represented a great chance for us to acquire new information on a topic highly connected to our field of study and, at the same time, to exercise our abilities to do practical work using this information. Furthermore, we managed to understand the entire process of building an urban growth model, by following all the necessary steps. It was a very useful experience for the participants, as urban sprawl is present all over the world (concerning underdeveloped favelas in developing countries and high-class suburbs in economically-advanced countries) and scenario building is one of the most important

Warning Maps EGEA Salzburg/Wien Paris-Lodron University Salzburg

References Regression. Wiley.

WORKSHOP REPORT

Johanna Brandstätter

steps in finding the best management strategies for these newly-urbanised ■ areas.

SELGARTNER , 2005). Recent devastating events, such as Hurricane Katrina and various floods occurring in different countries have brought to light the absolute need to generate plans for the management and mitigation of the impacts generated by these hazards.

Hence, various warning maps have to be created for the different purposes and different natural hazards. When creating these warning maps, the purpose of the map, as well as the target audience must always be kept in mind.

The available data also plays a major role in the designing of warning maps.

For the workshop, each participant was required to identify hazards which occur in their home country and what kind of mapping was done there to

planning, management and alternatives livelihoods for poor, wetland-dependent communities in Kampala, Uganda. African Journal of Ecology. Vol. 47(s1), pp.154–160.

KITCHIN, R.T., 2009. International En-

cyclopedia of Human Geography.

Elsevier.

LEE , D., 1973. Requiem for large-scale

models. Journal of the American Institute of Planners. Vol. 39(3), pp.163–178.

VERMEIREN, K., 2012. Urban growth of

Kampala, Uganda: Pattern anlysis and scenario development. Landscape and Urban Planning.

either identify possible affected areas; map past affected areas; or mark evacuation routes and plans, so that the general population knows what to do when a hazard strikes. Soon it turned out that each country has its own means of mapping and uses different symbologies for visualising their affected areas. Additionally, the maps prepared by each participant were made for a wide range of purposes.

Afterwards we took part in a role-play.

The situation was that we all were living on an island where a volcano was about to erupt, but the evidence for this was rather speculation than actual science. The different roles representing the population had to decide how to react to this current threat and whether it made sense to evacuate the whole island. The different pre-knowledge of the various participants was helpful to support the different arguments and ideas to come to a solution.

Unfortunately, the time was up before a decision with which everyone was satisfied could be made. Based on the discussion of the role play and then also on the management risk cycle, different purposes for creating maps were identified, along with different actors and target audiences whom they are made for.

In Austria, floods are identified as the

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

main hazards. This is also visible in the Austrian legislation. Due to the numerous floods in the past, hazard zonation became a national act in 1975/1976 in Bundesforstgesetz – Verordnung über die Gefahrenzonenpläne (HOLUB and FUCHS, 2009). The executive authority responsible for the implementation of this law is the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management (BMLFUW). It is administered by the Austrian Service for Torrent and Avalanche Control (WLV) - responsible for the upper parts of catchments - and the Federal Water Engineering Administration - responsible for the lower catchments. Nevertheless, the competences of which executive authority is responsible for which part of rivers is not that clearly delineated, which causes difficulties of the competences (HOLUB and FUCHS, 2009). Besides the difficulty of the competences, one thing is consistent for the whole country; the colours in maps in which the affected areas have to be marked. In general, the colours, which have to be used in Austrian hazard mapping, represent:

• red: permanent settlement is impossible, because of a high damage potential; • yellow: settlement is in general possible, but permanent protection measurements are required; • blue: no building allowed, retention zones; • brown: potential risk of hazards other than floods; • purple: natural protection from hazards, these areas have to be kept in the state they are (DIE.WILDBACH , 2012).

As simple as it seems so far, the reality is much more complicated. In addition to this hazard zonation act which concerns the whole country, Austria is divided into nine federal states, where each of these states has a different law for land use planning. Hence, each federal state handles hazard zonation in another way. This becomes also clear when looking at two examples of actual maps.

In the Federal State of Salzburg, by law, hazard maps need to be marked in the land utilisation plan. This plan can be easily found on the homepage of each municipality, as it is obligatory. The purpose of this map is to show future building-projects in which zones it is safe to build and where special protection measures have to be installed. Furthermore, it also shows which houses are in endangered zones. Most of the buildings located in the red zone are older than the land utilisation plan that has the marked hazard zones. Thus for these houses special protection was installed, as far as it was possible, but

many of them still face a flood unprotected.

The maps for the Federal State of Salzburg are usually based on a lot of different data from various sources and, hence they are very detailed. The base map is a DSM, DTM 3-D Laserscan (1x1 m) (both digital terrain models), orthophotos, ÖK 1:50,000 and Austrian Map 1:50,000 (both topographic maps of Austria). Furthermore, data regarding rivers flowing through the villages was gathered before creating the map. This data included detailed run off data, the precipitation data for past major flood events and reconnaissance of the area by specialists (INGENIEURBÜRO WÖLFLE ZT GMBH, 2008).

Besides the maps produced by the Federal State of Salzburg, an interactive hazard zonation map of the whole country exists, but this map is much less detailed. The map can be used by everyone with internet access, just by entering the village or town you want to look at and the program zooms you there. Additionally, there are also different options for displaying the information, as the scale as well as the background information can be changed. The map, for example, can also be displayed with an orthophoto in the background. In general, this map (or homepage) has the purpose of informing the public about potentially endangered zones. The problem is that the public is not very aware that such an information platform exists and not all hazard maps are published for each municipality. For a more detailed hazard zonation each municipality has to be contacted individually (BMFLUW, 2013).

As there is an Austrian wide symbology for hazard zonation maps, the legend also sticks to the national law for hazards zonation. Unfortunately, the legend is only displayed when a part of the map is printed. Compared to the first map this one is much less detailed and the scale is smaller. Additionally, there is also no option to display the information on the land utilisation plan.

The reason for this is that the second map was taken from another Federal State of Austria (Styria), where the laws are different from those in Salzburg.

The map itself was much more difficult to find, due to the fact that it was not published on the municipality’s homepage, as there is no law in Styria requiring the municipalities to do so.

The map is interesting, as many already existing buildings are in the red zone, where building is nowadays not allowed. This is due to various reasons.

Firstly, some of the houses are simply older than the hazard zonation map.

Secondly, those buildings which are younger, were unconsciously built in an endangered area, because it was not marked in the utilisation plan. Third, the owners of the buildings unconscio-

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

usly built in endangered areas were not informed that they were building in a zone at risk. They were very surprised when a debris flow hit them this summer (BMFLUW, 2012).

Overall the workshop showed that the hazards and laws are not only different throughout the European countries, but also within their boarders. Furthermore, they also show differences in how the public is informed. Each country facing hazards still has a lot of work to do in order to create and publish useful maps that are available to everyone.

Austria, especially, still has a lot of work for the future regarding the publication of maps that include hazard zones combined with land utilisation plans, such as the ones that already exist in the Federal State of Salzburg.

Furthermore, the risk cycle has to be taken into closer consideration when warning maps are produced, as the risk cycle gives the purposes for creating a map to the mappers. Thus the requirements for each map become clearer. ■

References BUNDESMINISTERIUM FÜR LAND- UND FORSTWIRTSCHAFT, UMWELT UND WASSERWIRTSCHAFT (BMFLUW) ed.,

2012. Natural Hazard Overview & Risk Assessment Austria. Gefahrendarstellung Fließgewässer [online] Available at: <http://karten.naturgefahren.at> [Accessed 5 September 2012].

BUNDESMINISTERIUM FÜR LAND- UND FORSTWIRTSCHAFT, UMWELT UND WASSERWIRTSCHAFT (BMFLUW) ed.,

2013. Rechtliche Hinweise [online] Available at: <http://www.naturgefahren.at/rechtlich.html> [Accessed 10 February 2013].

DIE.WILDBACH ed. 2012. Der Gefahren-

zonenplan des Forsttechnischen Diesnstes für Wildbach – und Lawinenverbauung [pdf online] Available at: <http://www.lebensministerium.at/forst/schutz-naturgefahren/wildbach-lawinen/leistungen/Gefahrenzonenplanung. html> [Accessed 5 September 2012].

DIKAU, R. and Weichselgartner, J., 2005.

Der unruhige Planet. Der Mensch und die Naturgewalten. Darmstadt: Primus Verlag.

HOLUB, M. and FUCHS, S., 2009. Mi-

tigating mountain hazards in Austria - legislation, risk transfer, and awareness building. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 9, 2009. pp. 523–537.

INGENIEURBÜRO WÖLFLE ZT GMBH

ed., 2008. Gefahrenzonenplanung Gemeinde Bad Gastein – Technischer Bericht GZ- 2717 [pdf online] Available at: <www.salzburg.gv.at/pdf-61-gzp-bad-gastein-tb-neu.pdf> [Accessed 10 February 2013].

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EXCURSION REPORT

Society Environment Interactions Around Leuven Johanna Brandstätter EGEA Salzburg/Wien Paris-Lodron University Salzburg

Wouter T’Seyen KU Leuven Excursion Leader

Jean Poesen

T

his excursion was organised as a part of the EGEA summer school: “MAPs: Meanings and Purposes”, in Leuven, September 2012. The aim of the excursion was to show evidence of how humans have influenced and interacted with their direct environment in the area around Leuven as far back as Classical Times and the Middle Ages, but also how humans have exploited land up to the present day.

Many preserved archaeological artefacts have been found at Meerdaal Forest, a forest South of Leuven, and even today they show us how humankind has changed the environment ever since its arrival. The ancient forest acts as an archive of evidence of former human land use, and thus it is an ideal study area. The landscape has been preserved underneath the forest since the time of the last deforestation as our excursion leader informed us.

Some of this evidence will be examined more closely in this summary.

The region of Leuven is situated on the boarder between the Belgian lowlands and midlands. It consists of tertiary sand deposits (Brusselian sand from Eocene age) and is covered by quaternary loess, a fertile soil that makes it suitable for agriculture. The Meerdal Forest was the area, which the excursion visited first. It lies about 11 km south of Leuven, in the Belgian loess

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belt. For a long time the forest was considered to be a primary forest, however studies of permanent gullies found in the forest, showed evidence that this land had formerly been an intensively used agricultural land. As agriculture developed in prehistoric/Roman times, shifting cultivation was the main way for cultivating the land. The pH of the soil was originally about 4–5, but acid soils are not favourable for agriculture.

Therefore two actions were undertaken in order to increase the pH of the soil: trees were burnt and calcareous material was spread over the fields. The latter was easy to accomplish, because the quaternary cover consisted of calcareous loess and traces of this are

infilling, thus if their catchment remains under crop-land they are usually completely filled in again. This makes Meerdaal Forest even more unique, because it preserved them and even stabilised the old gully channels (VANWALLEGHEM , et al., 2006). In the forest, 43 large gullies were mapped, where one of them is illustrated in Figure 1.

Research has attempted to reconstruct the historical land use in the gully runoff contributing area. It showed that the gullies were formed under cropland, which is a plausible conclusion due to the fact that other research had already showed that parts of the forest had been deforested and used for agriculture (VANWALLEGHEM , et al., 2005).

Besides the gullies, closed depressions in this area (see Figure 2), give evidence of intensive land use before the forest was planted.

The closed depressions were formed by the exploitation of calcareous loess, for agricultural reasons in Roman times.

Closed depressions are defined as “lower lying areas where the sediment eroded from the surrounding soil surfaces draining towards the closed depression is trapped in the system” (VANWALLEGHEM , et al., 2007, p.574).

Figure 1: A deep gully in the Meerdaal Forest (photo by: Annika Palomäki, 2012)

still to be seen in the Meerdaal Forest.

The land use phases, which were identified can be dated between the 18th century BC and the third century AD (Middle Bronze Age to Roman Period) (VANWALLEGHEM , et al., 2007). Gully erosion is the most visible and obvious soil erosion process, which is also very important in a wide range of environments. Nevertheless, it is difficult to find gully erosion of former times; hence the ancient Meerdaal Forest offers a unique setting to study them.

Usually gullies like those are characterised by a rapid cycle of incision and

These circular to elliptic landforms can have a surface area between 0.01 and 10 hectares and are between 0.2 and 10 m deep (VANWALLEGHEM , et al., 2007).

These pits originate from shifting cultivation, which was practised in this area. Mr. POESEN pointed out how the farmers in the area made small quarries where they extracted fertile soil and spread it on to their adjacent fields. In this way, the fields could be cultivated for a longer time before a new field had to be cleared.

Furthermore, he informed us that about 65 of these pits can be found in the

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

Figure 2: Closed depression in the Meerdal Forest (photo by: Annika Palomäki, 2012)

forest, where they are well-preserved because human intervention on the land use has disappeared. Outside in the cropland these depressions are also still visible. In the open fields these pits were filled up over time, but when it rains they fill with water and become visible again. Drilling has confirmed that these landforms were former deep depressions, because of the soils found in them. The soil did not display the layers, which would be expected for this area and therefore it could be concluded that they are the remains of former depressions as Mr POESEN explained.

Furthermore, our excursion leader informed us that, upon leaving the forest, the morphology of the landscape changes dramatically. The forest floor is elevated by about 1 m when compared to the surrounding cropland. This is the result of the intensive agriculture of today: each year about one centimetre of soil is ploughed out, which adds up to one metre in a century.

Many processes work together to result in this huge soil loss. On the one hand, natural processes such as water erosion, sheet and rill erosion, gullying, and till erosion all contribute to the loss. On the other hand, a substantial amount of soil gets lost through harvesting. When root crops are dug up a lot of soil sticks to them and is carried away with them. The soil is washed off the roots at a different location, and is thus lost forever to the fields. At the beginning, the soil was captured and brought back to the fields. Soon the farmers realised that this soil had so many chemicals in it from the prior fertilisation that the crops did not grow properly anymore, so they stopped this practice. Now the erosion continues. The only way to possibly stop this soil loss is to turn the cropland into pasture. This would mean that a layer of vegetation would constantly

cover the soil again and erosion would be reduced to a minimum.

Additionally, Mr POESEN told us that due to agriculture and uneven topography, serious water erosion problems occur in this region. If the areas close to croplands are built on, it is not surprising that the consequences of water erosion can represent a threat to nearby villages. A perfect example of this is the village Nethen, which was harmed by mud flows during major rainfall events in recent times. Consequently, a flood retention basin was created.

The sediment rich water coming from the cropland is gathered in the flood retention pond, while the outflow occurs through a small pipe with a controlled discharge. Unfortunately, a lot of sediment which is contaminated by herbicides and pesticides, remains in the pond, therefore it can not be put back on the fields without proper treatment.

The above is the reason why it is important to get to know the controlling factors of the sediment yield. Sediment yield only provides information about the net erosion intensities in a certain catchment, yet it is an important source of information, especially when it comes to constructing sediment storage plans using reservoirs or retention ponds. It is only when an accurate estimation of the sediment yield is known that it can be possible to adapt the right dimension of a planned construction to meet all the requirements (VERSTRAETEN and POESEN, 2001).

The penultimate stop of the excursion brought us to a completely different topic. The Hageland, which is characterised by elongated sandstone hills towering some 40 m in height, formed about 11–5 million years ago.

The south-west to north-east oriented hills are in fact fossil sand bars formed in a sea. They are so well preserved,

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

because they are capped with a formation of iron-rich sandstone, also called ferrouginous sands. Usually when the sea level falls these hills are destroyed by the waves and the strength of the water, but when the water level drops fast they are preserved. This is exactly what happened here. The Mediterranean Sea became disconnected from the other oceans as the Strait of Gibraltar was blocked. Therefore the Mediterranean dried out. It was mostly desiccated by evaporation until the Atlantic waters found a way through the Gibraltar Strait again and rapidly filled the Mediterranean Sea (GARCIA-CASTELLANOS, et al., 2009). The filling of the Mediterranean Sea lead to a worldwide drop in sea level of about 7 m. This made it possible for these elongated hills in the Leuven area to be preserved.

One of these elongated hills is called Kesselberg. Settlements built close to Kesselberg now face the threat of mass failure and rock toppling due to the ferrouginous sands, which the elongated hill is made up of. Cracks in the underground develop due to tension and drying between storms, and plunge pools are deepened during storms.

Failures then occur during, or soon after, major runoff events (DIETRICH and DUNNE , 1993). People living in this area feel at risk, but simple measurements protect them and their material assets. First, the blocks which break off are made up of sand, hence they often fall apart when rolling down the slope.

Only a few of these smaller blocks even reach the bottom. Second, trees were planted in order to catch the falling rocks and protect the houses downhill.

Third, they are then stopped by a ditch and a small earth wall, which protects the lower settlements from the threat of rockfall by these fragments.

The final stop of the excursion brought us to Gelrode, where different crops with different erodibility of the soil can be found. Our excursion leader explained that erosion also creates a problem here since the hill slopes are used for agriculture and the valley is a residential area. In general, the erosive power of a water stream over the soil is given by the formula:

EP = ρ(w)gRS whereby EP stands for the Erosive Power [Pa], ρ(w) is the mass density of the water [kg/m³], R is the hydraulic radius, but can be approximated by the flow depth [m], and S is the slope [%]. The only adjustable variable in this equation is the flow depth. When water runs off over bare loamy soil, a concentrated flow in the form of rills or even gullies are formed. The flow depth of this runoff path is much deeper compared to a surface covered in grass. Grass reduces the velocity of

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the runoff, and in addition, the roots have a protecting effect on the soil so that rills or gullies cannot be formed.

This explains why many grass buffers and grass waterways were constructed here. In addition to the grass strips, small retention ponds were created to catch the majority of the water during major rainfall events. Furthermore, cover crops are planted during the period when the original crop is not on the field. Yellow mustard, for example, can be used as a cover crop to decrease the erosive impact of the rain, the excursion leader informed us.

Overall, the excursion gave many interesting insights into how humans have influenced nature from as far back as their original spread throughout Europe, right up to modern times.

Beyond this, it demonstrated that society is still significantly influenced by the past. Other interesting facts about the area around Leuven were also given and it was shown how the area is threatened by erosion. Furthermore, the methods which people use

to deal with natural threats in this area were highlighted. All in all, it was an interesting excursion showing many different problems faced by the ■ Belgians.

References GARCIA-CASTELLANOS, D., ESTRADA , F., JIMÉNEZ-MUNT, I., GORION, C., FEMÁNDEZ , M., VERGES, J. and DE VICENTE , R., 2009. Catastrophic

flood of the Mediterranean after the Messinian salinity crisis. Nature. Vol. 462. p.778.

DIETRICH , W.E. and DUNNE , T., 1993. The channel head. In: BEVEN, K. and KIRKBY, M.J., eds., 1993. Channel Ne-

twork Hydrology. Chichester: John Wiley and Sons, pp.175–219.

VERSTRAETEN, G. and POESEN, J., 2001.

Factors controlling sediment yield from small intensively cultivated catchments in a temperate

EXCURSION REPORT

Leuven Ancient and Alive Lara Zemite EGEA Kiel Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel Excursion Leaders

Femke Faber, Kristel Sieprath, Chris Kesteloot

T

he excursion “Leuven Ancient and Alive” was intended to show the varying faces of the city of Leuven and the interaction of history and modern times. As preparation a lecture about the historical development of Leuven was held to give context to the sites to be seen in the walking part.

Being a university city with almost one third of the inhabi-

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tants being students, you would expect them to heavily influence the development and also feeling of the city. However, it was interesting that this was not so remarkable at the time of the excursion and also the congress, probably due to the fact that the semester had not started yet.

Changing from the university, which is one of the most important employers nowadays, to the industry, which used to be important until the 1960s to 1970s, the historical development is still visible today in the city of Leuven. First of all it is the shape of the city that developed from the medieval times. The historical city core was surrounded by a city wall, which was eventually crossed and the city expanded further up to a second wall that was built. However, the city still stayed relatively compact due to the

humid climate. Geomorphology 40, pp.123–144.

VERWALLEGHEM , T., POESEN, J., VAN DEN EECKHAUT, M., NACHTERGAELE , J. and DECKERS, J., 2005. Reconstruc-

ting rainfall and land-use conditions leading to the development of old gullies. The Holocene 15,3, pp.378–386.

VERWALLEGHEM , T., POESEN, J., VITSE , I., BORK , H. R., DOTTERWEICH , M. and SCHMIDTCHEN, G., 2007. Origin and

evolution of closed depressions in central Belgium, European loess belt. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 32. pp.574–586.

VERWALLEGHEM , T., BORK , H.R., POESEN, J., DOTTERWEICH, M., SCHMIDTCHEN, G., DECKERS, J., SCHEERS, S. and MARTENS, M., 2006. Prehistoric

and Roman gullying in the European loess belt: a case study from central Belgium. The Holocene, 16, 3, pp.393–401.

natural surroundings that restricted sprawl of the city. These historical settings have influenced the city of today.

Leuven has been a place of trade where different routes from within and out of the territory of today’s Belgium come together, which has remarkably shaped the road network that is still very visible. With industrialisation, the existing road network was developed further and, most importantly, complemented by a railroad network.

The railroad changed the medieval structure of the city, as new roads were established. On the excursion these were pointed out as very different to the former road network and it even seemed as being regarded as wrong or improper, however, looking at these streets today, in my opinion they fit into the surroundings very well. This is due to the fact that the buildings are in the same manner as in the surroundings and have been accepted and lived out by the citizens.

Further on, the former medieval living situation in Leuven changed since during the industrialisation the number of inhabitants grew severely.

New settlements, also more densely built, appeared and shaped some of the city parts.

Today these quarters are still inhabi-

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

ted by people who used to be blue-collar workers or who have come from families of that background. This is a similar situation to other cities in other countries. Problems arising in these kinds of quarters could be very much the same as those, at least, in Western European countries where industrialisation happened under similar circumstances. The experience in Eastern European countries, specifically in Latvia, however, is different, as industrialisation occured later and the industrial sector developed significantly in the second half of the 20th century. In the case of Latvia, housing for the former workers was built in different times and under other different circumstances.

Getting back to Leuven, the social housing district in SintMaartensdal was renewed as a housing district where workers of the former industry used to live. These are very untypical buildings in comparison to the rest of the city, as they are partly high-rise buildings and look very different from the surrounding quarters.

However, even though these were pointed out by many of the excursion participants as ugly and improper and the whole quarter was condemned as a failure, I would like to differ.

The new renovation works still going on at the buildings are improving their outer shape. Comparing them to other social high-rise housing districts in other cities, they look really good and as works are still going on, a positive development of the empty spaces between the houses could be expected. If green spaces that invite the inhabitants to spend their time outside develop, the district should be regarded as a positive example.

Granted, probably it doesn’t fit in the surroundings with the differing architecture; however, Leuven is not so homogenous after all. When talking just about the high rise buildings and trying to make a community activate also the less well-off people, the spaces between the buildings that have potential for social interaction in their rare shape, are important. They can fosterplaygrounds where children meet and play together and mothers are watching them and, therefore, interact as well. If the right circumstances are assumed, with growing contact, a better integration in society can be achieved and, thus, the legacy of the past, of being worse-off and of a lower social class, changed. Of course, this is a very idealistic view on the site, however, condemning it just for its looks, seems wrong. It is by far not the worst case of social housing there is.

Returning to the point of seemingly wrongly placed buildings within the surroundings of the city, it is to say, that even though Leuven city centre has a lot of old buildings, during the excursion various inconsistencies with the style were seen as well.

These might not be as visible as the very striking landmark in SintMaartensdal, however, for the careful watcher they are blatant. This is very normal due to the destruction caused by World War I and World War II that had their effect on Leuven as well and has to be regarded as sign of the times. Cities just develop and not all that seems nice today will be regarded the same way in the future, as not all that used to be modern at certain times is regarded as functional, viable or beautiful today.

Another place that is partly controversial in my opinion is the redevelopment of the former harbour area.

The unused former industrial sites were getting into bad shape, which is not unusual for such places in Europe. This also caused the proceeding process of deterioration. As it has been seen in very many different cities all over Europe, London Docklands and Hamburg HafenCity as two examples, former brownfield zones become popular for redevelopment due to their often attractive sites and vast areas. This has also happened in Leuven, where the area of Vaartkom has been assigned for refurbishment by the city council. This is a needed and important step to keep the city a liveable place, however, the development does not seem to meet the wishes of the city council completely. It is always a question of money, influence and different interests. With the city being the initiator having interests to meet the needs of all social groups, the project could be more socially sustainable than investor-driven development.

However, it has to be kept in mind that the new inhabitants and owners of the buildings, that will be sold in future to even out the investment of the city, will most probably not be the social underclass and in the long run this area will develop into a high class quarter. Further on, the promenade which is supposed to be public space in the area might develop into something semi-private as the shop owners near it might try to interfere with the happenings there. Also the concept of the promenade with quiet walking parts seems a bit awkward, regarding the noise from the closest street which is frequently used by cars. This is completely different to the intended use of the pedestrian

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

area nearby.

Another critical point about the redevelopment from my point of view is the destruction of the former buildings. They are, no doubt, in bad shape and renovating them could be very expensive, but it seems that with the old buildings the harbour area is also losing its individual character.

The excursion title “Leuven Ancient and Alive” would not be accurate anymore. It also seems that buildings being presently created could stand anywhere else in the western world where harbour redevelopment is taking place. It seems that the beginning project lacks individuality.

Would the old man fishing from his boat who was there at the time of the excursion, still be fishing when the modern, supposedly quiet pedestrian area just by the water will be established? It is by no means my intention to criticise the redevelopment as such, as it is very much needed and a good step for the area. However, these seemingly small details are so visible to me that I personally would have preferred a maybe slower but more natural development of the area, keeping all the small individual details. Constructing new buildings with huge glass fronts does not reflect the history of the place.

This is and always has been one of the problems of today’s cities: deciding how much of historical legacy to keep and how much to try something new and modern. Cities do change, it is in their character, but still Leuven has kept many historical sites and parts of old structures that mirror this. In this essay the focus was more on the newer parts being reconstructed, as there usually are points where different interests meet and collide.

However, the historical structures are also somewhat well integrated in the surrounding areas, but this has not been successful everywhere. Maybe it doesn’t need to be, because then these special buildings strike out and remind of their importance, which needs to be recognised in the future ■ too.

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EXCURSION REPORT

Urban Geology in Brussels Ema Corodescu EGEA Ias�i University of Ias�i Excursion Leader

Toon Dirckx

city; but up to the present, has still remained a poor district. Moreover, many health-care and philanthropy institutions are present here, serving as a permanent reminder of the former leper colony, where the ill were cared for by the church. This evolution over ten centuries exemplifies how the

ghted one in the city. The construction of this boulevard was an attempt to reintroduce the high-class population into the city, who had preferred to move outside due to the development of trains and speed vehicles. During the same period, in 1874, the Brussels Stock Exchange was also built on this boulevard in order to revitalise the area. Once again, we observed how various planning policies introduced new urban layers for the purpose of solving certain problems.

Another interesting element was the South train station, first opened in 1869 and which has since been moved

S

ince the beginning of the 21st century, more than half of the world’s population lives in urban spaces. This brings about a real challenge for government authorities, geographers, and spatial planners to find appropriate solutions when planning urban developments in order to be both cost-efficient and adapted to the local culture at the same time. In this context, it is necessary to understand the cultural features of a city and to take them into consideration.

During the EGEA Annual Congress 2012, hosted and organised by EGEA Leuven, we had the opportunity to take part in the excursion “Urban Geology in Brussels”, held by teaching assistant TOON DIRCKX from the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven. The route took us along the poor, western part of the old, medieval part of Brussels. During this excursion, we observed how this area has evolved throughout the years since the middle ages. This enabled us to understand the geological metaphor: each generation (layer) of buildings can be associated to a rock layer. Each of these layers describes a certain period of time, a different historical context and a particular type of urban living.

Poor neighbourhoods in the SE of the old town The starting point of the excursion was the South Station, located in the Marolles neighbourhood, a former leper colony,, which was situated outside the city gates in the 11th century AD. This neighbourhood used to represent the place of banishment for lepers, as well as criminals of the worst kind. In spite of its former reputation, in the 14th century most of this area was included inside the newly-built walls of the

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Figure 1: Philanthropy institution in Marolles area

urban function of a particular area remained relatively consistent for a long period of time, with only a few gradual adjustments being made; for example, the introduction of modern health-care services.

This neighbourhood is also the host to a very important institution – The Palace of Justice, built by King Leopold I in the 19th century, by demolishing the existing houses and building the Palace in their place. Moreover, some long, wide streets; namely Hoogstraat and Blaesstraat; were built in the area during the same period in order to facilitate access for the army to the quarter. These measures were taken as a consequence of the great number of protests carried out by the local, underprivileged population. In this case, we observed how a layer of the city had been removed and replaced by another due to the policies imposed by the state power.

South Station area The excursion continued with a brief look at the Avenue de Stalingrad; a wide, long street and the first gas-li-

from its original location a couple of times. The station found at its current location was finished by the mid-20th century as part of the north-south tunnel of the city. After the oil crisis during the 1970’s, in 1980, the station was chosen to be the high-speed train station (fr. Train à Grande Vitesse) of Belgium and thus the investors made a lot of profit, relying on a cheap, former industrial area. This layer continues to exist and in 1990, theEurostar terminal was also built here. At present, Brussels South is still the most important train station in Brussels.

Former industrial districts From the south of the old town, we continued our way northwards to the Anderlecht and Molen Beek neighbourhoods. These former textile industry districts are nowadays full of wholesale stores and immigrant residences, with many of the immigrants not having legal permission to stay in Brussels. The Molen Beek neighbourhood changed from a warehouse zone to a meat processing district. Following this, it became the African quarter and sustained its economy through the tra-

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

de of illegal cars and electronics. The evolution of urban layers in this space area has been strongly influenced by the absence of any urban planning measures until 1962. Essentially, the public space has been used and changed according to the views and plans of everyone who had enough economic power to convince the mayor. The Molen Beek municipality used to one of the richest in Brussels, due to the concentration abundance of high-class industry in the area. However, nowadays it is one of the most dangerous neighbourhoods, full of conflicts, and with a very high crime rate. This is an example of how economic decline, accompanied by a lack of planning intervention, managed to completely change an urban layer.

North Station area Our last zone of observation was situated in the Northern part of the city, along the Boulevard du Jardin Botanique, near the North Station. The area consisted of a business district, dominated by skyscrapers which had been built according to the principles of functionalism. For instance, the traffic is structured on two levels: pedestrians (employees of these business centres) use interior bridges connecting the buildings, while vehicles pass through the streets below. These buildings form part of a complex that was built in 1955, which came about through the demolition of 35 ha of land and without taking any of the architectural heritage into consideration. In this case, an urban layer was completely destroyed and replaced by a different one 1.

Figure 2: Gentrification in former industrial areas

This excursion gave us a unique opportunity to observe urban evolution and to try to understand the logic behind it. Our trip was very well planned by our excursion leader, as it included adequate examples of different types of evolution and intervention. We were offered a complete view of how the city of Brussels has changed over time.

The excursion consisted of a high-quality, deeply scientific field trip; one we will find extremely relevant to our education. This is because it is essential for us, as future urban geographers or planners, to take into consideration the history of an area; as well as the features of its social and economic life in order to find the most appropriate, sustainable and fair planning soluâ&#x2013; tions.

1â&#x20AC;&#x192; The entire article is based on the information provided by the excursion leader TOON DIRCKX

Figure 3: The "new city"

European Geographer 11th issue â&#x20AC;˘ Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

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EXCURSION REPORT

An insight into the production of maps and the future of data-software Marthe Wens

Excursion Leader

of geographers battling for victory by associating 1:25,000 map fragments without labels to the map of Europe.

This document presents a report about the amazing and instructive day this proved to be for every committed geographer.

Rink Kruk

History of the NGI

EGEA Leuven KULeuven

Introduction

O

n the 12th of September 2012, the excursion leader RINK KRUK guided our group of young geographers for a tour around the interesting workplace of the Belgian National Geographic Institute (NGI). The NGI is a governmental mapping agency that has different geographical responsibilities: it keeps the topo-geographical inventory of Belgium, produces topographic maps and implements a National Spatial Data Infrastructure. The NGI provides a legal framework for the gathering of geospatial information on the national level (NGI, 2012).

The guide gave us an introduction about how maps are produced nowadays and how they were produced twenty years ago. As future geographers, we were taught how modern technology enhances current map production and had a lecture about INSPIRE (“Infrastructure for Spatial Information in the European Community”) in order to understand that the accessibility of geospatial data has to be improved.

The institute is located in an old abbey in Brussels and with an ice-breaker related to geography, the excursion participants discovered this beautiful place as well as how to use GPS and what can be done with it. Eurogeographics, the association of European National Mapping and Cadastre Agencies, came to introduce themselves, advertise their work and also organised a “Europe Map fragments game”. The game consisted of five mixed groups

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To explain the history of the NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC INSTITUTE , we have to start in 1831. In 1831, a non-geographical mapping institute was founded, the Dépôt de la Guerre et de la Topographie.

Their first job was to define the shared border with Germany. At the end of the 19th century, Belgium became the centre of science, and so the goal of the organisation changed from warfare to science. They started with geographical research by positioning, leveling and triangulation (measurement based on triangle axiom’s), and other associated research. The Militair Cartografisch Instituut had arisen (DEWINTER , 2012). Established by law, they had to create a reliable geodetic network (for instance Lambert72). In the 1970s, the military institute converted to a civilian institute (with one last remainder of military activities being that the institute is still run by the minister of defense) and was called The National Geographical Institute. They started using photogrammetry, a technique to interpret and perform spatial measurements from aerial photographs.

The old BONNE-projection also had to change to the LAMBERT-projection for a more exact result, which means that the coordinates have to be transformed).

Presently the NGI is still a governmental institute and collects the national spatial data infrastructure (NSDI) to provide a structural environment to find and use geospatial data. Regularly, new surveys are planned to keep the data as updated as possible. This data is then used for public services and for GPS applications among others.

Printing of maps, history of mapping At the printing centre, some information about the printing of maps was acquired. In the past, they used giant and heavy tablets with water paint on it as a template. Now copper

or zinc stencils are in use, which are a lot easier to handle. A map printer can only print three colors at a time, so maps must be printed two times to gain all the colors and it is a hard job to control this process.

In the Vandermaelen-room the rich Belgian map history was displayed. From a wonderful FERRARIS map (1744) over the marvelous world map projection with two hemispheres from MERCATOR to the latest topographical map with satellite pictures could be seen. It is very interesting to compare these maps and see their evolution.

It is particularly difficult to represent the whole world accurately on a map, that is the reason why many different map projections exist. For instance, an equivalent projection has accurate sizes but the shapes are distorted.

A conformal projection, on the other hand, maintains the real shapes, but size is exaggerated. The MERCATOR projection is a normal conform projection so the angles are preserved. It is also a cylindrical projection, which implies that the deformations are symmetric to the equator (NATIONAL ATLAS OF THE UNITED STATES, 2011); these are some examples of the large offer of projections; each one has its own advantages and disadvantages. The appropriate projection for a map depends on the scale of the map and on the purposes for which it will be used. Depending on whether it is for GPS-use, for an overview of land use or to map a region of the whole globe, a different projection might be the most suitable. Only the globe projection can be 100% exact.

Although the newest and complicated computer models are very close, a perfect 2D world map has not been invented yet.

Then we got the chance to experience how to use the stereo photography method. In the computer room, some employees were working on a remote sensing project. Remote sensing is the technique to obtain information (spatial data) about objects or phenomena that are not directly linked to it, like aerial and satellite photos. The employees convert photographs into spatial data. Special glasses are used to see the special computer screens in 3D, to intensify and accentuate the aerial photographs on it. In the past, an old giant machine with wheels to zoom was the instrument used to do remote

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

sensing.

“Be INSPIREd” INGRID VANDEN BERGHE , the admi-

nistrateur-generaal of the institute, introduced INSPIRE. INSPIRE is the abbreviation for Infrastructure for Spatial Information in the European Community and is a directive imposed by the European Commission in May 2007.

The INSPIRE directive tries to bring all the spatial data information (SDI) from 27 European countries together into a compatible system. This European Union spatial data infrastructure will enable the sharing of environmental spatial information and facilitate free public access to spatial information across Europe (EUROPEAN COMMISSION, 2012). It’s a lot of work to make all the data compatible. It is evident that some definitions about land use or buildings are not identical over the whole of Europe, because for instance a Mediterranean forest does not demand the same legislation as a Scandinavian one.

INSPIRE is based on a number of common principles: • “Data should be collected only once and kept where it can be maintained most effectively.

• It should be possible to combine seamless spatial information from different sources across Europe and share it with many users and applications.

• It should be possible for information collected at one level/scale to be shared with all levels/scales; de-

tailed for thorough investigations, general for strategic purposes.

• Geographic information needed for good governance at all levels should be readily and transparently available.

• Easy to find what geographic information is available, how it can be used to meet a particular need, and under which conditions it can be acquired and used” (EUROPEAN COMMISSION, 2012. About INSPIRE).

The INSPIRE directive has 34 spatial data themes needed for environmental applications. These themes are subdivided in three goals: to release Geographical information, to offer applied thematic maps and to extend up-to-date environmental information. It takes a lot of time to build a platform like this, to have this complete European Union spatial data infrastructure is still a bit of a “dream image”, but they are working on it and the goal is to finish in 2019.

Conclusion Within the frame of MAPs: Mapping and purposes, the topic of the Annual Congress 2012, this excursion was well located. The visit to the NGI was very informative and successful. Everyone became more familiar with the use of GPS, recognizing blind maps and was introduced to the use of stereo photography. How to print maps is not a secret anymore and a clear view on the history of map projections is in everyone’s mind. The most important thing we learned was about the intriguing

European Geographer 11th issue • Scientific Symposium 2012, Leuven

and fascinating new project INSPIRE: every young geographer present started thinking about rules of how to make this system unambiguous and updated.

With a gift of a hand-painted map from 1789 of Europe, the NGI gave a wonderful goodbye to all EGEAns. I’m sure the NGI will hear more from some ■ of us in the future…

References EUROPEAN COMMISSION. INSPIRE. Infra-

structure For Spatial Information in the European Commission [online] Available at: <http://inspire.jrc. ec.europa.eu> [Accessed 26 September 2012].

EUROPEAN COMMISSION. About INSPI-

RE [online] Available at: <http:// inspire.jrc.ec.europa.eu/index.cfm/ pageid/48> [Accessed 26 September 2012].

DEWINTER , J. Het NGI als overheidsin-

stelling, historiek [online] Available at: <http://www.ngi.be/NL/NL3-1-3. shtm> [Accessed 2012].

Map Projections: From Spherical Earth To Flat Maps. In: National Atlas of the United States [online] Available at: <http://www.nationalatlas.gov/ articles/mapping/a_projections. html> [Accessed 26 January 2011].

Nationaal Geografisch Instituut [online] Available at: <http://www.ngi.be/ NL/NL0.shtm> [Accessed 2012].

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