Complemento da edição 57 da Revista EXAME PME

Music

Summary 266 268

Europe, Middle East, Africa (EMEA)

273

Asia Pacific

282

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Pr

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Latin America

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North America

289

Summary Music The music market consists of recorded music and live music. Recorded music comprises spending on physical formats—albums, single sound recordings, and music videos—as well as digital distribution. Digital distribution consists of music distributed to mobile devices and music downloaded from the Internet through licensed services or app stores.

Revenue from subscription and advertiser-supported streaming services is also included.

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For the first time, we have included estimates and forecasts for live music. Live music consists of concerts and music festivals and comprises end-user spending on tickets as well as sponsorships.

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The recorded music market includes neither subscription fees paid to satellite radio providers nor advertising generated by Internet radio services, nor does it include revenues from music publishing.

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Global spending on music rose 1.3 percent in 2011—the first increase in years, as growth in concerts and music festivals offset a modest decline in recorded music. Recorded music spending fell only 2.4 percent in 2011 compared with decreases averaging more than 8 percent annually in prior years. Beginning in 2013, growth in digital spending will offset the ongoing decline in physical spending, leading to a rebound in overall spending on recorded music. Even with recorded music increasing in 2013, spending will remain 38 percent lower than in 1999. Overall global spending on music, including concerts and music festivals, will increase at a 3.7 percent compound annual rate to $59.7 billion in 2016 from $49.9 billion in 2011.

$16.5 billion in 2011. Asia Pacific will increase at a 2.2 percent compound annual rate to $12.3 billion in 2016 from $11 billion in 2011. Excluding Japan, growth in Asia Pacific will average 7.3 percent compounded annually. Latin America will increase at a 4.2 percent compound annual rate to $1.5 billion in 2016 from $1.3 billion in 2011.

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Market size and growth by region

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Spending is measured at retail, which can be substantially higher than the wholesale or trade value revenues often reported.

EMEA, the largest region at $21.1 billion in 2011, will expand at a 3.0 percent compound annual rate to $24.4 billion in 2016. North America was the fastest-growing region in 2011, with a 3.2 percent increase, and will be the fastest growing during the next five years, averaging 5.4 percent on a compound annual basis to $21.5 billion in 2016 from

266

Market size and growth by component Digital distribution will increase from $7.7 billion in 2011 to $14 billion in 2016, a 12.6 percent compound annual advance.

Physical distribution will decline at a 6.7 percent compound annual rate to $11.3 billion in 2016 from $16 billion in 2011. Globally, digital distribution will surpass physical distribution in 2015.

Overall spending on recorded music will begin to expand in 2013 and will rise to $25.3 billion in 2016 from $23.7 billion in 2011, a 1.3 percent increase compounded annually. Spending on concerts and music festivals will increase from $26.2 billion in 2011 to $34.5 billion in 2016, a 5.6 percent compound annual advance.

PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016

Principal drivers New streaming services will fuel growth in digital distribution, helped by broadband, smartphone, and tablet penetration growth.

The adoption of graduated-response systems, which involve Internet service providers’ issuing warnings to file sharers that escalate in severity with the ultimate threat of disconnecting a user’s Internet access, is proving to be effective in limiting peer-to-peer file sharing. The digital market also will benefit from social media activity, which stimulates interest in acts, contributing to the growth in downloads.

Physical distribution will continue to decline during the latter part of the forecast period but at moderating rates as the remaining physical market increasingly comes to consist of people who prefer music in physical formats. In Asia Pacific, piracy has decimated the physical market in a number of countries, which will limit future declines.

The touring market rebounded in 2011, and local festivals contributed to the expansion.

We expect a healthy festival market to drive growth during the next five years. Growth in 360 deals with labels will enhance the market, as labels will be actively promoting tours as they share in performance revenues.

Global music market by region (US$ millions)

% Change Asia Pacific % Change Latin America % Change Total % Change

2010

2011p

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012–16 CAGR

19,777

18,291

17,879

16,009

16,528

17,247

18,103

19,101

20,241

21,473

–3.8

–7.5

–2.3

–10.5

3.2

4.4

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.1

5.4

23,544

22,698

22,407

20,925

21,062

21,441

22,018

22,734

23,527

24,409

–3.8

–3.6

–1.3

–6.6

0.7

1.8

2.7

3.3

3.5

3.7

3.0

12,136

11,972

11,605

11,096

11,037

11,138

11,303

11,563

11,911

12,316

1.0

–1.4

–3.1

–4.4

–0.5

0.9

1.5

2.3

3.0

3.4

2.2

1,336

1,260

1,263

1,240

1,259

1,298

1,347

1,412

1,462

1,543

–7.5

–5.7

0.2

–1.8

1.5

3.1

3.8

4.8

3.5

5.5

4.2

56,793

54,221

53,154

49,270

49,886

51,124

52,771

54,810

57,141

59,741

–2.9

–4.5

–2.0

–7.3

1.3

2.5

3.2

3.9

4.3

4.6

3.7

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012–16 CAGR

2008

Recorded music

22,954

% Change

–13.6

–15.5

Digital distribution

5,173

6,204

% Change Concerts and music festivals % Change Total % Change

42.0 32,324

2010

2011p

17,163

15,969

14,610

13,506

12,603

11,873

11,308

–13.0

–14.1

–7.0

–8.5

–7.6

–6.7

–5.8

–4.8

–6.7

6,799

7,114

7,731

8,864

10,063

11,326

12,631

13,966

19.9

9.6

4.6

8.7

14.7

13.5

12.6

11.5

10.6

12.6

29,158

26,773

24,277

23,700

23,474

23,569

23,929

24,504

25,274

r

Total recorded music

Fo

% Change

19,974

Pr

27,151

Physical distribution

2009

es

2007

s

Global music market by component (US$ millions)

U

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

Component

ly

EMEA

2009

n

% Change

2008

o

North America

2007

se

Region

–7.8

–9.8

–8.2

–9.3

–2.4

–1.0

0.4

1.5

2.4

3.1

1.3

24,469

25,063

26,381

24,993

26,186

27,650

29,202

30,881

32,637

34,467

4.5

2.4

5.3

–5.3

4.8

5.6

5.6

5.7

5.7

5.6

5.6

56,793

54,221

53,154

49,270

49,886

51,124

52,771

54,810

57,141

59,741

–2.9

–4.5

–2.0

–7.3

1.3

2.5

3.2

3.9

4.3

4.6

3.7

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

Music | Summary 267

North America The outlook in brief • Streaming services will boost digital spending.

• Physical distribution will drop from $3.7 billion in 2011 to $2.4 billion in 2016, an 8.1 percent compound annual decrease.

• Declines in physical distribution will remain at single-digit levels as the remaining market increasingly consists of people who prefer physical music.

• Digital distribution will overtake physical distribution in 2012 and will rise at an 11.7 percent compound annual rate to $5.7 billion in 2016 from $3.3 billion in 2011.

• New venues and growth in festivals will propel spending on live music.

• Total spending on recorded music will begin to expand in 2012 and will rise at a 3.1 percent compound annual rate to $8.2 billion in 2016 from $7 billion in 2011.

Overview

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• Spending on concerts and music festivals will expand at a 6.9 percent compound annual rate from $9.5 billion in 2011 to $13.3 billion in 2016.

• The recorded music market fell 0.9 percent in 2011, the smallest decrease in years as growth in digital distribution nearly offset a moderating decline in physical spending.

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• The overall music market will total $21.5 billion in 2016 from $16.5 billion in 2011, a 5.4 percent increase compounded annually.

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011p

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

4,050

3,387

3,094

2,845

2,629

2,448

8,574

6,257

4,990

3,726

Digital distribution

2,700

3,010

3,090

3,025

3,288

3,690

4,143

4,650

5,180

5,727

11,274

9,267

8,080

7,075

7,014

7,077

7,237

7,495

7,809

8,175

8,503

9,024

9,799

8,934

9,514

10,170

10,866

11,606

12,432

13,298

19,777

18,291

16,009

16,528

17,247

18,103

19,101

20,241

21,473

Concerts and music festivals

17,879

Fo

Total

r

Total recorded music

Pr

Physical distribution

es

Recorded music

s

North America

U

Music market by component† (US$ millions)

†At average 2011 exchange rates.

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

Music market growth by component (%) 2008

2009

2010

2011p

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012–16 CAGR

–19.1

–27.0

–20.2

–18.8

–8.0

–9.1

–8.7

–8.0

–7.6

–6.9

–8.1

Digital distribution

42.7

11.5

2.7

–2.1

8.7

12.2

12.3

12.2

11.4

10.6

11.7

Total recorded music

–9.8

–17.8

–12.8

–12.4

–0.9

0.9

2.3

3.6

4.2

4.7

3.1

5.3

6.1

8.6

–8.8

6.5

6.9

6.8

6.8

7.1

7.0

6.9

–3.8

–7.5

–2.3

–10.5

3.2

4.4

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.1

5.4

North America

2007

Recorded music Physical distribution

Concerts and music festivals Total

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

268

PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016

• The US market rose 3.4 percent in 2011, benefiting from a rebound in live music that offset a modest decrease in recorded music. We expect growth to average 5.5 percent compounded annually from $15.2 billion in 2011 to $19.8 billion in 2016.

• Canada’s recorded music market continued to decline in 2011, although at a more moderate rate compared with prior years, as a turnaround in concerts and music festivals boosted overall spending by 2.0 percent. We project spending to increase at a 4.1 percent compound annual rate from $1.3 billion in 2011 to $1.6 billion in 2016.

2008

2009

2010

2011p

2012

18,375

16,907

16,484

14,703

15,196

15,871

1,402

1,384

1,395

1,306

1,332

1,376

19,777

18,291

17,879

16,009

16,528

17,247

Canada Total

2015

2016

2012–16 CAGR

16,676

17,616

18,685

19,844

5.5

1,427

1,485

1,556

1,629

4.1

18,103

19,101

20,241

21,473

5.4

U

se

†At average 2011 exchange rates.

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

2014

o

United States

2013

n

2007

North America

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Music market by country† (US$ millions)

s

Recorded music

es

Digital distribution

Pr

• After growing 2.7 percent in 2009 and declining 2.1 percent in 2010, the digital market rose 8.7 percent in 2011. Growth was fueled by a rebound in overall downloads and a growing share of higher-priced albums in the download mix.

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• While a digital album generally costs more than a singletrack download, an exception in 2011 was Lady Gaga’s Born This Way album, which was offered for 99 cents and sold 2.5 million copies, providing a lift for the overall market.

• Social media also are playing roles in boosting the digital market. Online commentary on American Idol and Glee are driving downloads from those shows; and general online commentary on acts and artists is stimulating interest and boosting downloads.

• Social media also help promote new acts. One Direction, a new boy band, launched in the United States with a social network campaign, resulting in significant downloads of the band’s single prior to radio airplay.

• The number of downloads increased by 5.0 percent in 2011.

We expect growth to average 5.0 percent compounded annually during the next five years from 1.6 billion in 2011 to 2 billion in 2016.

• Popular music streaming service Spotify in Europe entered the US market in 2011 with a freemium package.

A limited-access advertiser-supported option is available for free to users. Users can also pay for unlimited access at monthly fees of $4.99 for online access and $9.99 for mobile access. By year-end 2011, there were more than 10 million total Spotify users.

• Because of licensing issues, Spotify is not yet available in Canada but plans to enter that market.

• MOG and Rdio are other subscription streaming services.

MOG provides users with a fixed amount of listening time per month that can be augmented if a user enrolls friends.

Rdio also provides access on a time-based model.

• Rara launched in both the United States and Canada in 2011 offering more than 10 million tracks for $4.99 for online access and $9.99 for mobile access.

For digital recorded music unit sales data, visit www.pwc.com/outlook

Music | North America

269

• Google Music also launched in 2011 with a cloud-based service that allows users to store up to 20,000 songs for free and is selling music through its Android platform.

• The market also will benefit from new antipiracy developments. In a deal in the United States that was agreed to in 2011 and implemented in 2012, Internet service providers will send notices to copyright infringers that will escalate in severity, with the ultimate prospect of shutting off broadband access. Such plans have proved successful in other countries.

• Amazon also launched a cloud service. Amazon Cloud Drive gives users 5 gigabytes of free storage with an option to expand that to up to 1,000 gigabytes at a cost of $1 per gigabyte. Purchases through Amazon can be stored for free, and users can access music through the Amazon Cloud Player.

• We expect digital spending in the United States to grow at double-digit rates during the next five years, averaging 11.7 percent compounded annually to $5.5 billion in 2016 from $3.1 billion in 2011.

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• Rhapsody, which acquired Napster in 2011, and Vevo, which launched in 2009, are other streaming services in the market.

• We expect Canada, which is behind the US in its development of a licensed digital market, to continue to be the faster-growing country as its digital market catches up. We project spending on digital music in Canada to increase at a 12.8 percent compound annual rate to $276 million in 2016 from $151 million in 2011.

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• In Canada, Galaxie Mobile, the first Canadian-owned subscription-based mobile streaming service, was launched in 2011.

• Growth in smartphone and tablet penetration will expand the potential market for streaming services and for digital music in general.

Digital recorded music market† (US$ millions) 2008

United States

2,629

2,909

71

101

2,700

3,010

Canada

2011p

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012–16 CAGR

2,972

2,892

3,137

3,516

3,945

4,428

4,932

5,451

11.7

118

133

151

174

198

222

248

276

12.8

3,025

3,288

3,690

4,143

4,650

5,180

5,727

11.7

3,090

Fo

Total

2010

2009

Pr

2007

r

North America

es

s

U

• The overall North American market will expand at an 11.7 percent compound annual rate to $5.7 billion in 2016 from $3.3 billion in 2011.

†At average 2011 exchange rates.

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Recording Industry Association of America, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

Physical distribution • One of the more notable developments in 2011 was a sudden slowdown in the decline in physical sales in the United States. After falling at rates averaging more than 20 percent annually from 2007 to 2010, unit sales decreased only 4.4 percent in 2011.

• We believe that most of the people likely to shift from physical to digital music have already done so and that the remaining market contains a larger share of buyers who prefer physical music. The physical market also benefited in 2011 from the sale of $5 CDs at Best Buy and Walmart, which provided a boost for unit sales.

270

PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016

• We expect unit sales in the United States to fall at mid-single-digit rates that will average 6.4 percent compounded annually to 184 million in 2016 from 256 million in 2011.

• Unit sales in Canada fell 7.4 percent in 2011, a slower decline compared with the 12.9 percent decrease in 2010.

We also expect declines to continue at single-digit rates averaging 8.5 percent compounded annually.

• Overall unit sales in North America will decline from 281 million in 2011 to 200 million in 2016, a 6.6 percent decrease compounded annually.

• We project that spending on physical music in the United States will fall at an 8.0 percent compound annual rate to $2.2 billion in 2016 from $3.4 billion in 2011. In Canada, physical distribution will drop from $347 million in 2011 to $215 million in 2016, a 9.1 percent decrease compounded annually.

• The overall North American market will total $2.4 billion in 2016 from $3.7 billion in 2011, an 8.1 percent decline on a compound annual basis.

Physical recorded music market† (US$ millions) 2008

2009

2010

2011p

2012

United States

7,986

5,758

4,552

3,661

3,379

3,075

588

499

438

389

347

312

8,574

6,257

4,990

4,050

3,726

3,387

Total

o

Canada

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012–16 CAGR

2,811

2,588

2,393

2,233

–8.0

283

257

236

215

–9.1

3,094

2,845

2,629

2,448

–8.1

ly

2007

n

North America

U

se

†At average 2011 exchange rates.

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Recording Industry Association of America, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

Pr

es

s

For physical recorded music unit sales data, visit www.pwc.com/outlook

Total recorded music

Fo

r

• Digital spending nearly reached physical spending in the United States in 2011; in 2012, digital spending will become the larger component of the recorded music market. Total spending on recorded music in the United States will increase at a 3.4 percent compound annual rate to $7.7 billion in 2016 from $6.5 billion in 2011.

• In Canada, digital spending constituted 30 percent of the recorded music market in 2011, and we expect it will not

overtake physical spending until 2015. Total spending on recorded music will continue to decline through 2014 before edging up in 2015–16. For the forecast period as a whole, recorded music spending in Canada will fall at a 0.3 percent compound annual rate to $491 million in 2016 from $498 million in 2011.

• The overall recorded music market in North America will increase from $7 billion in 2011 to $8.2 billion in 2016, a 3.1 percent gain compounded annually.

Recorded music market by country† (US$ millions) North America United States Canada Total

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011p

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012–16 CAGR

10,615

8,667

7,524

6,553

6,516

6,591

6,756

7,016

7,325

7,684

3.4

659

600

556

522

498

486

481

479

484

491

–0.3

11,274

9,267

8,080

7,075

7,014

7,077

7,237

7,495

7,809

8,175

3.1

†At average 2011 exchange rates.

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Recording Industry Association of America, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

Music | North America

271

Concerts and music festivals

• The market should also benefit from new and renovated venues. Among the new venues opening in 2012 are the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York, with a capacity of 19,000; LIVESTRONG Sporting Park in Kansas City, Kansas, with a capacity of 25,000; and the Ford Center in Evansville, Indiana, with a capacity of 11,000. Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City with a capacity of 18,000 is one of the largest renovated venues.

• After falling by 8.8 percent in 2010, the concert and music festival market rebounded in 2011 with a 6.5 percent gain.

• U2 was the leading concert tour in North America in 2011, grossing $156 million. Taylor Swift, Kenny Chesney, Lady Gaga, Bon Jovi, and Elton John also had successful 2011 tours in North America.

• Artists are relying more on concerts than in the past, with the physical market having declined. Labels and artists are entering into 360 deals wherein they jointly participate in concert and recorded music revenues. The deals help cross-promote the recorded music market and the live performance market.

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• The market benefited in 2011 from fewer concert tours that were better promoted. Average attendance was more than 20 percent higher, and average grosses were up more than 30 percent.

o

• Music festivals also thrived in 2011, including Coachella, Bonnaroo, and Lollapalooza. Smaller festivals such as Rock on the Range and the Hangout Music Festival also did very well in 2011. Music festivals represent a lessexpensive alternative for live music than concert tours do, and they provide a variety of performers. We expect festivals to be significant drivers of the overall market during the next five years.

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• Social media also are playing growing roles in concerts.

Tours are marketing on Facebook and other sites, and social media activity generates interest in tours.

U

• A generally improving economy should also help the livemusic market, which we expect will expand at a 6.9 percent compound annual rate to $13.3 billion in 2016 from $9.5 billion in 2011.

s

• A number of high-profile tours in 2012—including the Beach Boys, Fleetwood Mac, Madonna, Bruce Springsteen, and the Rolling Stones—are being reflected in early sales growth.

r

Pr

es

• The United States will rise from $8.7 billion in 2011 to $12.2 billion in 2016, a 7.0 percent compound annual increase, while Canada will average 6.4 percent compounded annually from $834 million in 2011 to $1.1 billion in 2016.

2008

2009

2010

2011p

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012–16 CAGR

8,240

8,960

8,150

8,680

9,280

9,920

10,600

11,360

12,160

7.0

743

784

839

784

834

890

946

1,006

1,072

1,138

6.4

8,503

9,024

9,799

8,934

9,514

10,170

10,866

11,606

12,432

13,298

6.9

North America

2007

United States

7,760

Canada Total

Fo

Concert and music festival market† (US$ millions)

†At average 2011 exchange rates.

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

Export your own data selections to Excel and PDF. Visit the online Outlook at www.pwc.com/outlook

272

PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016

Europe, Middle East, Africa (EMEA) The outlook in brief

• Physical distribution will decline at a 7.2 percent compound annual rate, falling to $4.4 billion in 2016 from $6.4 billion in 2011.

• New streaming services and the adoption of graduatedresponse antipiracy laws will fuel digital download spending.

• Digital distribution will grow at a 15.5 percent compound annual rate from $1.9 billion in 2011 to $3.9 billion in 2016, constituting 47 percent of total recorded music spending in 2016 compared with 23 percent in 2011.

• Physical declines will moderate as the remaining market increasingly consists of people who prefer physical music.

• Music festivals will boost spending on live music.

• Increases during 2014–16 will offset declines during the next two years, leaving the recorded music market virtually flat at $8.4 billion from $8.3 billion in 2011.

Overview

ly

• Spending on recorded music fell 4.3 percent in 2011, less than half the 8.7 percent decrease in 2010. We expect spending to decline for an additional two years and then record low-single-digit increases as gains in digital distribution begin to offset moderating declines in physical distribution.

o

n

• The concert and music festival market will grow at a 4.8 percent compound annual rate from $12.7 billion in 2011 to $16.1 billion in 2016.

U

se

• The overall music market will reach $24.4 billion in 2016 from $21.1 billion in 2011, a 3.0 percent increase compounded annually.

2008

2009

2010

es

2007

2011p

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

8,202

7,134

6,448

5,877

5,415

5,032

4,709

4,448

Pr

EMEA

s

Music market by component† (US$ millions)

Recorded music

9,032

749

1,069

1,355

1,589

1,901

2,240

2,639

3,051

3,471

3,909

Total recorded music

10,856

10,101

9,557

8,723

8,349

8,117

8,054

8,083

8,180

8,357

Concerts and music festivals

12,688

12,597

12,850

12,202

12,713

13,324

13,964

14,651

15,347

16,052

Total

23,544

22,698

22,407

20,925

21,062

21,441

22,018

22,734

23,527

24,409

Fo

Digital distribution

r

10,107

Physical distribution

†At average 2011 exchange rates.

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

Music market growth by component (%) EMEA

2008

2009

2010

2011p

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012–16 CAGR

–13.6

–10.6

–9.2

–13.0

–9.6

–8.9

–7.9

–7.1

–6.4

–5.5

–7.2

41.6

42.7

26.8

17.3

19.6

17.8

17.8

15.6

13.8

12.6

15.5

–11.3

–7.0

–5.4

–8.7

–4.3

–2.8

–0.8

0.4

1.2

2.2

0.0

3.7

–0.7

2.0

–5.0

4.2

4.8

4.8

4.9

4.8

4.6

4.8

–3.8

–3.6

–1.3

–6.6

0.7

1.8

2.7

3.3

3.5

3.7

3.0

2007

Recorded music Physical distribution Digital distribution Total recorded music Concerts and music festivals Total

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

Music | EMEA

273

• In France, spending dropped 1.4 percent as a 4.0 percent increase in concerts and music festivals was offset by a 6.4 percent decrease in recorded music. France’s physical market continued to fall by double digits in 2011, while digital spending rose 26.2 percent. We expect overall recorded music spending to decline through 2014, stabilize in 2015, and edge up 1.4 percent in 2016, for an overall 1.5 percent decline on a compound annual basis.

That decrease will be offset by a 4.5 percent compound annual gain in live music, leading to an overall 1.7 percent increase compounded annually to $2.3 billion in 2016.

• The United Kingdom and Germany have the largest markets in the region, at $4.3 billion and $4.1 billion, respectively, in 2011, followed by France at $2.2 billion.

Those three countries represented 50 percent of total spending in EMEA.

Fo

r

Pr

U

es

s

• Germany rose 2.2 percent in 2011, the largest gain in Western Europe. Recorded music spending rebounded with a 0.9 percent advance, as a 28.9 percent increase in digital spending offset a 3.5 percent drop in physical spending, which was less than half the 8.4 percent decline in physical spending in 2010. Growth was bolstered by a 3.6 percent increase in concert and music festival spending. We look for ongoing low-single-digit gains in recorded music that will be augmented by a 4.1 percent compound annual increase in live music. Germany will expand at a 2.7 percent compound annual rate to $4.7 billion in 2016.

se

o

n ly

• The UK decreased 1.0 percent in 2011 after falling 7.8 percent in 2010. A double-digit decline in physical spending offset a 15.2 percent increase in digital spending, leading to an overall 5.8 percent decrease in recorded music. A 3.0 percent gain in concert and music festival spending limited the overall decline. We expect digital spending to overtake physical spending in 2015, while an expanding live music market will generate low-single-digit gains beginning in 2012. Overall music spending in the UK will rise to $4.9 billion in 2016, a 2.7 percent compound annual increase from 2011.

274

PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016

Music market by country† (US$ millions) 2007

EMEA

2008

2009

2010

2011p

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012–16 CAGR

Western Europe

598

579

586

538

544

554

566

576

589

603

2.1

Belgium

566

554

562

528

534

544

555

568

583

599

2.3

Denmark

492

498

506

478

484

492

504

519

535

554

2.7

Finland

235

234

229

217

219

223

229

235

244

252

2.8

France

2,710

2,431

2,350

2,183

2,152

2,157

2,177

2,219

2,268

2,344

1.7

Germany

4,271

ly

Austria

4,686

4,299

3,992

4,080

4,174

4,397

4,514

4,654

2.7

309

305

293

263

251

241

237

237

239

247

–0.3

Ireland

313

303

295

274

266

260

259

262

266

271

0.4

Italy

1,242

1,156

1,094

1,056

1,076

1,106

1,146

1,192

1,241

1,291

3.7

Netherlands

1,132

1,079

1,078

968

Norway

668

646

656

622

Portugal

249

244

244

226

Spain

987

965

920

Sweden

725

731

765

Switzerland

1,047

1,045

1,050

United Kingdom

4,680

4,581

4,724

20,964

20,037

o

se

1,066

1,114

3.2

632

645

663

682

704

726

2.8

224

224

230

239

249

259

2.9

823

818

827

841

867

898

931

2.6

744

758

776

796

822

851

880

3.0

1,015

1,033

1,060

1,093

1,127

1,167

1,209

3.2

4,356

4,314

4,358

4,466

4,595

4,747

4,940

2.7

19,651

18,283

18,338

18,595

19,013

19,557

20,161

20,874

2.6

75

73

62

61

61

62

62

64

66

1.6

es 101

102

103

106

108

112

116

2.6

378

353

355

360

367

376

386

399

2.4

39

37

31

13

14

14

14

15

16

17

4.0

Russia

1,161

1,238

1,375

1,363

1,445

1,555

1,690

1,829

1,973

2,087

7.6

Turkey

297

298

295

277

283

290

298

308

318

330

3.1

2,048

2,137

2,260

2,169

2,260

2,383

2,537

2,698

2,869

3,015

5.9

73

73

69

65

64

65

65

66

68

70

1.8

Middle East/North Africa (MENA)‡

116

113

109

102

101

102

106

112

120

129

5.0

South Africa

343

338

318

306

299

296

297

301

309

321

1.4

Middle East/ Africa total

532

524

496

473

464

463

468

479

497

520

2.3

23,544

22,698

22,407

20,925

21,062

21,441

22,018

22,734

23,527

24,409

3.0

Central and Eastern Europe total

Fo

108

380

Romania

Middle East/Africa Israel

EMEA total

109

s

1,020

362

Hungary Poland

108

980

U

81

954

r

Central and Eastern Europe Czech Republic

953

Pr

Western Europe total

n

5,011

Greece

†At average 2011 exchange rates. ‡Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates.

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

Music | EMEA

275

Digital distribution • Digital distribution rose 19.6 percent in 2011 to $1.9 billion, fueled by a 15.0 percent increase in number of downloads and by an emerging streaming market.

• The market also benefited from the implementation of antipiracy laws. In France, the HADOPI law called for stepped-up expenditures on education combined with warnings and the ultimate threat of sanctions. The number of peer-to-peer file sharers fell 26 percent, and the number of digital downloads rose 27.9 percent in 2011.

• Rara in 2011 launched in France, Germany, Spain, and the UK. The service was offered on Hewlett-Packard PCs shipped in Europe and offers 10 million tracks for around $5 per month online and around $10 per month through mobile devices.

• Deezer and Orange formed partnerships in France and the UK to bundle Deezer’s music service in Orange’s mobile packages.

• WiMP offers a subscription service in Norway, Sweden, Denmark, and Portugal and has nearly 400,000 subscribers.

WiMP also is launching in Germany, Ireland, Belgium, and the Netherlands in 2012.

n ly

Recorded music

• There are numerous streaming services from wireless carriers throughout the region that are expanding the market.

se

o

• Similar measures were adopted in Sweden and the UK with similar results. In Spain, the Sustainable Economy Act, which went into effect in early 2012, includes a provision requiring Internet service providers to block access to Web sites that contain infringing content. That provision and others will limit unauthorized file sharing while boosting the legitimate digital download market.

U

s

• At the same time, streaming services are becoming popular, while album downloads are becoming larger components of digital downloads. That pattern echoes physical music, wherein singles were the dominant format in the 1950s and 1960s; albums overtook them in the 1970s. We expect those developments to lead to slower growth in digital unit downloads. Growth will drop to single-digit levels in 2014–16 and will average 10.1 percent compounded annually for the forecast period as a whole, increasing to 1.1 billion in 2016 from 705 million in 2011.

• Labels and artists are entering into full-service or 360 deals that incorporate touring and music sales in a single package. Fan club subscriptions, merchandise, and digital music can be purchased through label Web sites, providing an incremental lift for the digital market.

Fo

r

Pr

es

• Social media sites also help stimulate interest in artists through discussions of recent releases, music videos, and other artist activities.

• Growing penetration by tablets and smartphones is also expanding the market, as these devices are popular platforms for entertainment.

• We project spending on digital music to increase at a 15.5 percent compound annual rate during the next five years to $3.9 billion in 2016.

• Streaming services are proving very popular in EMEA. Spotify offers (1) a free service with limited access that is advertiser supported and (2) paid options for online and mobile access. Spotify had more than 10 million users and nearly 2 million subscribers in EMEA at year-end 2011.

In early 2012, Spotify launched a service in Germany. In the UK, Spotify partnered with Virgin Media to provide content for that market.

For digital recorded music unit sales data, visit www.pwc.com/outlook

276

PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016

Digital recorded music market† (US$ millions) 2007

EMEA

2008

2009

2010

2011p

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012–16 CAGR

Western Europe

14

15

22

29

36

43

49

53

57

61

11.1

Belgium

11

14

18

22

26

32

38

43

49

54

15.7

Denmark

18

33

43

52

62

71

80

90

99

108

11.7

Finland

6

7

11

15

18

21

24

26

29

32

12.2

France

38

58

85

122

154

188

230

271

313

355

18.2

550

ly

Austria

200

239

284

366

452

661

772

890

19.4

3

6

8

10

11

13

14

17

19

24

16.9

Ireland

6

8

10

11

13

14

17

21

25

29

17.4

Italy

38

38

47

53

63

82

109

134

161

188

24.4

Netherlands

22

24

28

33

Norway

14

20

30

39

Portugal

6

8

11

13

38

40

45

8

16

31

65

87

United Kingdom

247

375

Western Europe total

656

949

Switzerland

Czech Republic

3

Hungary

6

o

77

90

103

19.1

44

49

55

62

70

77

11.8

U

se

64

14

15

18

22

26

31

17.2

54

64

70

78

88

97

106

10.6

37

45

55

64

74

85

96

16.4

s

53

108

124

143

164

186

209

231

254

12.2

451

508

585

669

770

866

962

1,059

12.6

1,187

1,406

1,687

1,991

2,346

2,714

3,085

3,467

15.5

2

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

5

20.1

r

Central and Eastern Europe

43

es

Sweden

Pr

Spain

n

122

Greece

Germany

10

11

12

13

15

16

18

20

10.8

7

9

10

12

14

17

19

21

24

14.9

‡

1

1

1

2

2

3

4

5

6

24.6

Russia

33

38

75

78

87

99

113

128

145

164

13.5

Turkey

17

24

27

30

36

42

48

54

60

66

12.9

Central and Eastern Europe total

64

81

123

131

151

172

199

224

253

285

13.5

7

10

11

12

14

16

18

21

23

26

13.2

Middle East/North Africa (MENA)††

12

15

17

19

22

26

31

37

44

52

18.8

South Africa

10

14

17

21

27

35

45

55

66

79

24.0

Middle East/ Africa total

29

39

45

52

63

77

94

113

133

157

20.0

749

1,069

1,355

1,589

1,901

2,240

2,639

3,051

3,471

3,909

15.5

Romania

Fo

9

5

Poland

Middle East/Africa Israel

EMEA total

†At average 2011 exchange rates. ‡Less than US$500,000. ††Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates.

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

Music | EMEA

277

Physical distribution

Concerts and music festivals

• Physical unit sales fell 9.4 percent in 2011, and spending declined 9.6 percent, continuing the ongoing erosion of the physical market.

• The concert and music festival market rose 4.2 percent in 2011, partially rebounding from a 5.0 percent decline in 2010. The international touring market improved following a disappointing year in 2010, when a number of concerts were canceled.

• We expect declines to further moderate, with decreases averaging 6.2 percent compounded annually.

n ly

o

• Take That was the biggest tour in UK history and the second-largest tour worldwide in 2011, behind U2, with more than $220 million, $185 million of which was generated in the UK and Ireland.

• The festival market was mixed in 2011. Poor weather hurt spending in the UK, and several festivals closed, including the Truck Festival, Vintage at Goodwood, and Northern Lights. At the same time, other festivals sold out, including Glastonbury, V Festival, Bestival, Creamfields, Secret Garden Party, and End of the Road.

es

s

• Spending on physical music will fall at a 7.2 percent compound annual rate to $4.4 billion in 2016 from $6.4 billion in 2011.

• For EMEA as a whole, Take That, Justin Bieber, Lady Gaga, Usher, Roger Waters, Michael Bublé, and Taylor Swift were among the tours that stimulated the rebound in 2011.

se

• At the same time, we believe there is a core market for physical recorded music played on sophisticated sound systems. As that core level of activity is approached, declines in physical spending will moderate. We have seen this in the United States in 2011, and there was a smaller decline in EMEA in 2011 as well.

• The O2 Arena in London was the top-grossing venue in the world in 2011 for the third consecutive year. Glee Live, Usher, Kylie Minogue, Justin Bieber, Lady Gaga, and Roger Waters were among the leading acts playing at O2 in 2011.

U

• Piracy and the migration of legitimate sales from physical to digital are shrinking the physical market. The decline in physical spending led to store closings that are exacerbating the problem. In the UK, for example, HMV is the only remaining national chain, and it generates more than a third of total physical spending in that country.

Pr

Total recorded music

Fo

r

• Total spending on recorded music will decline during the next two years and then begin to expand in 2014, edging up to $8.4 billion by 2016 from $8.3 billion in 2011.

• Weak economic conditions also hurt the festival market in some countries in 2011.

• We look for somewhat stronger growth in 2012, fueled by a strong roster of international tours. The 2012 Olympics in the UK will attract visitors, which should provide a boost for the festival market.

• Over the longer run, popular local festivals will sustain growth, as will a modestly improving economy.

• We project spending to rise at a 4.8 percent compound annual rate to $16.1 billion in 2016 from $12.7 billion in 2011.

For physical recorded music unit sales data, visit www.pwc.com/outlook

278

PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016

Physical recorded music market† (US$ millions) 2007

EMEA

2008

2009

2010

2011p

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012–16 CAGR

Western Europe

250

223

202

182

167

153

141

129

120

111

–7.8

Belgium

235

213

203

186

174

163

153

145

138

132

–5.4

Denmark

189

171

155

136

121

108

97

88

80

75

–9.1

Finland

100

93

79

70

63

57

53

50

49

47

–5.7

France

1,636

1,309

1,159

1,011

906

821

751

696

654

626

–7.1

Germany

1,558

ly

Austria

2,058

1,952

1,788

1,725

1,642

1,482

1,405

1,336

–5.0

146

132

111

93

77

64

56

49

43

39

–12.7

Ireland

143

125

111

96

82

71

61

53

46

40

–13.4

Italy

508

395

296

287

269

252

237

223

210

199

–5.9

Netherlands

391

362

339

278

Norway

239

197

180

161

Portugal

90

79

70

60

Spain

358

313

249

Sweden

224

206

210

Switzerland

294

259

United Kingdom

1,987

1,800

Western Europe total

8,966

7,935

37

o

164

152

141

–9.2

146

132

121

111

103

96

–8.0

U

se

179

50

43

39

36

35

33

–8.0

178

142

124

109

97

89

81

–10.6

202

193

185

177

170

163

156

–4.2

es

s

198

203

184

169

157

145

135

126

–7.3

1,724

1,474

1,283

1,123

1,010

922

850

802

–9.0

7,271

6,405

5,810

5,305

4,899

4,560

4,272

4,040

–7.0

28

20

16

14

12

10

9

8

–12.9

33

29

26

23

21

19

18

16

–9.3

153

143

130

120

112

105

100

95

91

–5.4

31

27

21

4

3

3

2

1

1

1

–19.7

Russia

412

400

300

185

148

126

111

99

89

82

–11.1

Turkey

113

104

92

80

73

67

61

57

52

49

–7.7

Central and Eastern Europe total

777

753

617

448

386

345

312

286

264

247

–8.5

Poland Romania

Fo

38

142

Hungary

42

31

r

Czech Republic

228

231

Pr

Central and Eastern Europe

n

2,176

Greece

Middle East/Africa Israel

46

42

37

33

30

28

25

23

22

20

–7.8

Middle East/North Africa (MENA)‡

75

67

60

53

48

44

41

39

38

37

–5.1

South Africa

243

235

217

195

174

155

138

124

113

104

–9.8

Middle East/ Africa total

364

344

314

281

252

227

204

186

173

161

–8.6

10,107

9,032

8,202

7,134

6,448

5,877

5,415

5,032

4,709

4,448

–7.2

EMEA total

†At average 2011 exchange rates. ‡Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates.

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

Music | EMEA

279

Recorded music market by country† (US$ millions) 2007

EMEA

2008

2009

2010

2011p

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012–16 CAGR

Western Europe

264

238

224

211

203

196

190

182

177

172

–3.3

Belgium

246

227

221

208

200

195

191

188

187

186

–1.4

Denmark

207

204

198

188

183

179

177

178

179

183

0.0

Finland

106

100

90

85

81

78

77

76

78

79

–0.5

France

1,674

1,367

1,244

1,133

1,060

1,009

981

967

967

981

–1.5

Germany

n ly

Austria

2,258

2,191

2,072

2,091

2,094

2,108

2,143

2,177

2,226

1.3

149

138

119

103

88

77

70

66

62

63

–6.5

Ireland

149

133

121

107

95

85

78

74

71

69

–6.2

Italy

546

433

343

340

332

334

346

357

371

387

3.1

Netherlands

413

386

367

311

271

251

241

242

244

–2.1

Norway

253

217

210

200

190

181

176

173

173

173

–1.9

Portugal

96

87

81

73

Spain

396

353

294

232

Sweden

232

222

241

239

Switzerland

359

346

339

United Kingdom

2,234

2,175

2,175

Western Europe total

9,622

8,884

8,458

Hungary

48 147

Poland Romania

31

33 47

se 58

57

58

61

64

0.0

206

194

187

185

186

187

–1.9

238

240

241

244

248

252

1.1

es

s

U 64

327

333

343

354

366

380

3.0

1,982

1,868

1,792

1,780

1,788

1,812

1,861

–0.1

Pr

40

243

327

7,811

7,497

7,296

7,245

7,274

7,357

7,507

0.0

29

21

18

16

15

13

13

13

–6.3

r

Czech Republic

43

40

38

36

36

35

36

36

–1.1

160

152

140

132

126

122

119

116

115

–2.7

28

22

5

5

5

5

5

6

7

7.0

Fo

Central and Eastern Europe

o

2,298

Greece

Russia

445

438

375

263

235

225

224

227

234

246

0.9

Turkey

130

128

119

110

109

109

109

111

112

115

1.1

Central and Eastern Europe total

841

834

740

579

537

517

511

510

517

532

–0.2

Middle East/Africa Israel

53

52

48

45

44

44

43

44

45

46

0.9

Middle East/North Africa (MENA)‡

87

82

77

72

70

70

72

76

82

89

4.9

South Africa

253

249

234

216

201

190

183

179

179

183

–1.9

Middle East/ Africa total

393

383

359

333

315

304

298

299

306

318

0.2

10,856

10,101

9,557

8,723

8,349

8,117

8,054

8,083

8,180

8,357

0.0

EMEA total

†At average 2011 exchange rates. ‡Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates.

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

280

PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016

Concert and music festival market† (US$ millions) 2007

EMEA

2008

2009

2010

2011p

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012–16 CAGR

Western Europe

334

341

362

327

341

358

376

394

412

431

4.8

Belgium

320

327

341

320

334

349

364

380

396

413

4.3

Denmark

285

294

308

290

301

313

327

341

356

371

4.3

Finland

129

134

139

132

138

145

152

159

166

173

4.6

France

1,036

1,064

1,106

1,050

1,092

1,148

1,196

1,252

1,301

1,363

4.5

Germany

2,163

ly

Austria

2,428

2,108

1,920

1,989

2,080

2,254

2,337

2,428

4.1

160

167

174

160

163

164

167

171

177

184

2.5

Ireland

164

170

174

167

171

175

181

188

195

202

3.4

Italy

696

723

751

716

744

772

800

835

870

904

4.0

Netherlands

719

693

711

657

Norway

415

429

446

422

Portugal

153

157

163

153

Spain

591

612

626

Sweden

493

509

524

Switzerland

688

699

2,446

2,406

11,342

11,153

Western Europe total

Czech Republic

41

o

824

870

5.0

442

464

487

509

531

553

4.6

U

se

779

160

166

173

181

188

195

4.0

591

612

633

654

682

712

744

4.0

505

520

536

555

578

603

628

3.8

es

s

737

706

727

750

773

801

829

3.3

2,549

2,374

2,446

2,566

2,686

2,807

2,935

3,079

4.7

11,193

10,472

10,841

11,299

11,768

12,283

12,804

13,367

4.3

42

44

41

43

45

47

49

51

53

4.3

65

61

64

67

70

73

76

80

4.6

220

226

213

223

234

245

257

270

284

5.0

8

9

9

8

9

9

9

10

10

10

2.1

Russia

716

800

1,000

1,100

1,210

1,330

1,466

1,602

1,739

1,841

8.8

Turkey

167

170

176

167

174

181

189

197

206

215

4.3

1,207

1,303

1,520

1,590

1,723

1,866

2,026

2,188

2,352

2,483

7.6

Poland Romania

Central and Eastern Europe total

Fo

62

215

Hungary

60

703

688

r

Central and Eastern Europe

682

711

Pr

United Kingdom

n

2,713

Greece

Middle East/Africa Israel

20

21

21

20

20

21

22

22

23

24

3.7

Middle East/North Africa (MENA)‡

29

31

32

30

31

32

34

36

38

40

5.2

South Africa

90

89

84

90

98

106

114

122

130

138

7.1

Middle East/ Africa total

139

141

137

140

149

159

170

180

191

202

6.3

12,688

12,597

12,850

12,202

12,713

13,324

13,964

14,651

15,347

16,052

4.8

EMEA total

†At average 2011 exchange rates. ‡Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates.

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

Music | EMEA

281

Asia Pacific The outlook in brief

• Physical distribution will decline at a 5.2 percent compound annual rate to $4.1 billion in 2016 from $5.3 billion in 2011.

• New streaming services and antipiracy initiatives will drive spending on digital music.

• Digital distribution will rise to $4 billion in 2016, a 10.9 percent increase on a compound annual basis from $2.4 billion in 2011.

• Growth in licensed services will continue to cut into physical distribution.

• New festivals and international players’ entrance will boost spending on concerts and music festivals.

• Spending on concerts and music festivals will increase from $3.4 billion in 2011 to $4.3 billion in 2016, a 5.0 percent gain on a compound annual basis.

Overview

n ly

• Overall music spending will expand at a 2.2 percent compound annual rate to $12.3 billion in 2016 from $11 billion in 2011.

o

• Recorded music spending fell by 1.6 percent in 2011, a relative improvement compared with annual decreases averaging more than 7 percent during the prior two years.

2010

2011p

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

6,213

5,465

5,325

4,910

4,591

4,347

4,178

4,076

2,219

2,342

2,355

2,715

3,026

3,334

3,648

3,955

8,432

7,807

7,680

7,625

7,617

7,681

7,826

8,031

2,917

3,173

3,289

3,357

3,513

3,686

3,882

4,085

4,285

11,972

11,605

11,096

11,037

11,138

11,303

11,563

11,911

12,316

2008

2009

Recorded music

7,715

7,043

Digital distribution

1,644

2,012

Total recorded music

9,359

9,055

Concerts and music festivals

2,777

Fo

12,136

r

Physical distribution

Total

U

es

2007

Pr

Asia Pacific

s

Music market by component† (US$ millions)

se

• We expect declines for an additional two years followed by modest gains during 2014–16. For the forecast period as a whole, spending on recorded music will rise from $7.7 billion in 2011 to $8 billion in 2016, a 0.9 percent compound annual increase.

†At average 2011 exchange rates.

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

Music market growth by component (%) Asia Pacific

2007

Recorded music

2008

2009

2010

2011p

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012–16 CAGR

Physical distribution

–5.8

–8.7

–11.8

–12.0

–2.6

–7.8

–6.5

–5.3

–3.9

–2.4

–5.2

Digital distribution

37.9

22.4

10.3

5.5

0.6

15.3

11.5

10.2

9.4

8.4

10.9

Total recorded music

–0.2

–3.2

–6.9

–7.4

–1.6

–0.7

–0.1

0.8

1.9

2.6

0.9

Concerts and music festivals

5.3

5.0

8.8

3.7

2.1

4.6

4.9

5.3

5.2

4.9

5.0

Total

1.0

–1.4

–3.1

–4.4

–0.5

0.9

1.5

2.3

3.0

3.4

2.2

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

282

PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016

o

n

ly

• In the People’s Republic of China (PRC), piracy is estimated at 99 percent, and total legitimate spending was only $348 million in 2011. Digital accounted for 81 percent of total recorded music spending in 2011, the second-highest share in the world, behind South Korea.

Digital spending does not include fees paid to mobile telephone providers for subscription packages, music clubs, and other services that facilitate the downloading of music, ringtones, and other mobile music. Only those outlays directly related to actual music purchases are included. Overall spending rose 8.4 percent in 2011, the result of a 10.3 percent increase in recorded music and 6.1 percent growth in concerts and music festivals.

Growth during the next five years will average 9.2 percent compounded annually to $541 million in 2016.

se

• India, next largest, at $255 million, was the fastest-growing country in 2011, with a 26.9 percent increase. The digital market, which represented 72 percent of recorded music spending, rose 58.3 percent, and concerts and music festivals jumped 22.9 percent. India will continue to be the fastest-growing country, with a 14.7 percent compound annual increase to $506 million in 2016.

U

• Japan is the dominant territory, at $7.3 billion, in 2011, 66 percent of total recorded music spending in Asia Pacific.

Trends in Japan differed from those in other countries in 2011. Digital recorded music fell 16.3 percent in 2011 while growing at double-digit rates in every other country except Taiwan, where the increase was 7.1 percent. Meanwhile, spending on physical recorded music, which fell at doubledigit or high-single-digit rates in every other country, edged down only 0.6 percent in Japan. In the concert and music festival market, Japan fell 3.2 percent, while every other country except Pakistan expanded. Overall spending fell 4.0 percent in 2011. It appears that the earthquake and tsunami put consumers in a mind-set of self-control that translated into maintaining traditional spending patterns that kept physical spending relatively steady while leading to a decline in digital spending and a decrease in attendance at live music events. We expect Japan to return in 2012 to a spending pattern that will be more charac­ teristic of the overall market. Spending will decline at an 0.8 percent compound annual rate to $7 billion in 2016.

Fo

r

Pr

es

s

• Australia is the second-largest country and the only other market above $1 billion in 2011. Spending rose 4.5 percent in 2011 as growth in concerts and music festivals offset a modest decline in recorded music. In recorded music, a 34.2 percent jump in digital spending nearly offset a 13.1 percent decline in physical spending.

Australia’s digital market will overtake its physical market in 2013, which will lead to mid-single-digit gains in recorded music spending during the latter part of the forecast period. Ongoing growth in concerts and music festivals will lead to an overall 5.0 percent compound annual increase to $1.5 billion in 2016 from $1.2 billion in 2011.

• Thailand, at $228 million in 2011, was the only other country in Asia Pacific above $200 million. Spending rose 1.8 percent, boosted by a 5.1 percent increase in concerts and music festivals that offset an 0.8 percent decline in recorded music. In recorded music, a 12.5 percent decline in physical spending offset an 11.3 percent increase in digital spending. We expect recorded music spending to begin to increase in 2013, and continued growth in concerts and music festivals will lead to a 4.1 percent increase in overall spending to $279 million in 2016.

• South Korea, the third-largest market, at $857 million, rose 12.3 percent in 2011. The recorded music market is now 92 percent digital as piracy has long since decimated the physical market, while a hugely successful antipiracy initiative has propelled digital spending. South Korea will be one of the few countries where recorded music will grow faster than concerts and music festivals. Spending will increase at a 10.2 percent compound annual rate to $1.4 billion in 2016.

Filter digital and nondigital spending data. Visit the online Outlook at www.pwc.com/outlook

Music | Asia Pacific

283

Music market by country† (US$ millions) 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011p

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012–16 CAGR

Australia

1,054

1,027

1,177

1,139

1,190

1,243

1,301

1,368

1,440

1,516

5.0

China

272

285

301

321

348

380

415

456

498

541

9.2

Hong Kong

155

157

157

158

163

168

174

182

191

199

4.1

India

168

148

158

201

255

295

344

390

447

506

14.7

Indonesia

164

168

177

183

193

204

216

227

239

251

5.4

9,058

8,889

8,222

7,636

7,327

7,161

7,035

6,976

6,979

7,045

–0.8

57

56

55

56

59

142

148

142

144

153

Pakistan

27

28

28

28

28

29

Philippines

51

52

53

54

55

58

Singapore

91

95

95

93

95

South Korea

553

593

698

763

857

Taiwan

126

113

107

99

Thailand

217

218

228

224

Vietnam

NA

NA

NA

NA

12,136

11,972

11,605

Total

63

67

69

4.3

168

176

184

5.0

30

31

33

33

3.3

61

63

66

68

4.3

101

113

121

128

6.1

957

1,062

1,173

1,288

1,394

10.2

96

96

99

100

103

1.0

228

234

243

254

266

279

4.1

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

—

11,138

11,303

11,563

11,911

12,316

2.2

s

U 98

11,096

11,037

Digital distribution

Fo

Recorded music

r

Pr

†At average 2011 exchange rates.

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

60

159

107

es

New Zealand

se

57 143

Malaysia

o

Japan

n ly

Asia Pacific

• Digital spending rose only 0.6 percent in 2011, as the 16.3 percent decline in Japan nearly offset the 25.8 percent increase in the other countries. We expect the Japan anomaly to reverse in 2012 and project overall digital spending to increase by 15.3 percent.

• The digital market in Asia Pacific is beginning to migrate from downloads to streaming services. Spotify, Deezer, and Rdio entered Australia in 2011. Spotify has a limitedaccess advertiser-supported service and an unlimitedaccess subscription-based service. Deezer is a subscription service, and Rdio offers an advertiser-supported service with time limits on usage.

284

PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016

• KKBOX offers streaming services in Hong Kong and Taiwan; MelOn and Mnet are popular streaming services in South Korea. Omusic was introduced in Taiwan in 2011.

• In the PRC, Baidu entered into a licensing arrangement with OneStop China—a joint venture between Sony BMI, Warner Music, and Universal—to offer an ad-supported streaming service. Baidu pays the record companies for each download or stream, and the companies share ad revenues.

• The implementation of graduated-response systems has proved successful. In South Korea, 70 percent of infringers stopped their file-sharing activity after the first warning.

In New Zealand, a similar system was enacted in 2011, and within the first three months, file sharing fell 16 percent. In India and Malaysia, Internet service providers are blocking access to Web sites that carry infringing content.

• New streaming services and growing smartphone and tablet penetration will expand the market for digital access.

• To some degree, growth in streaming will cut into digital downloads. We project growth in unit downloads to drop to low-single-digit gains by 2015–16 and to average 6.0 percent compounded annually from 1.3 billion in 2011 to 1.7 billion in 2016.

• We project digital music spending in Asia Pacific to increase at a 10.9 percent compound annual rate to $4 billion in 2016 from $2.4 billion in 2011.

Digital recorded music market† (US$ millions) 2009

2010

2011p

2012

Australia

53

75

110

146

196

243

China

75

95

111

132

156

182

Hong Kong

17

23

27

31

37

India

15

21

45

96

152

Indonesia

33

40

49

57

66

1,231

1,477

1,484

1,403

Malaysia

7

9

11

13

New Zealand

5

6

7

Pakistan

3

5

6 10

8

10

15

144

176

Taiwan

12

Thailand Vietnam

2012–16 CAGR

449

18.0

209

240

271

302

14.1

41

46

51

56

61

10.5

196

239

284

339

395

21.0

75

83

91

99

107

10.1

1,174

1,305

1,380

1,443

1,506

1,568

6.0

15

17

19

21

23

25

10.8

11

15

21

25

29

33

37

19.8

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

11.4

U

se

n

397

12

14

16

18

20

22

23

10.4

20

23

27

31

35

39

43

13.3

271

339

416

493

574

656

737

809

14.2

13

14

14

15

16

17

19

20

22

8.0

33

49

56

62

69

75

82

89

95

102

8.1

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

—

2,012

2,219

2,342

2,355

2,715

3,026

3,334

3,648

3,955

10.9

1,644

Fo

Total

2016

18

r

South Korea

2015

346

s

6

Singapore

Pr

Philippines

2014

294

es

Japan

2013

ly

2008

o

2007

Asia Pacific

†At average 2011 exchange rates.

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

For digital recorded music unit sales data, visit www.pwc.com/outlook

Music | Asia Pacific

285

• We project physical spending to fall at a 5.2 percent compound annual rate from $5.3 billion in 2011 to $4.1 billion in 2016.

Physical distribution • With the physical market having nearly disappeared in a number of countries, further declines will necessarily be limited.

Total recorded music

• Japan accounted for 56 percent of all physical unit sales in Asia Pacific in 2011 and 86 percent of physical spending.

Japan’s physical market has held up relatively well compared with many other countries’, and we expect that pattern to continue.

• Total spending on recorded music will decline during the next two years and then expand beginning in 2014, rising to $8 billion in 2016 from $7.7 billion in 2011, a 0.9 percent compound annual increase.

o

n ly

• Overall physical unit sales will fall at a 5.2 percent compound annual rate to 352 million in 2016 from 461 million in 2011.

2012

2013

se

2014

2015

2016

2012–16 CAGR

U

Physical recorded music market† (US$ millions)

303

274

248

227

210

–9.1

36

31

28

26

24

22

–9.4

39

35

32

30

28

26

–7.8

60

49

41

34

30

27

–14.8

42

38

34

31

28

26

24

–8.8

4,626

4,597

4,266

4,015

3,827

3,701

3,639

–4.6

21

17

15

14

12

11

11

10

–7.8

56

40

31

27

22

19

16

13

–16.0

10

9

8

7

7

6

6

5

–9.0

21

19

17

15

14

13

12

11

10

–7.8

36

31

26

23

21

19

18

18

17

–5.9

55

47

40

34

30

27

24

22

20

–10.1

73

57

48

40

35

30

26

24

21

19

–11.5

Thailand

95

77

75

64

56

49

44

40

37

34

–9.5

Vietnam

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

—

7,715

7,043

6,213

5,465

5,325

4,910

4,591

4,347

4,178

4,076

–5.2

2008

2009

2010

2011p

588

516

510

389

338

China

77

62

51

42

Hong Kong

64

57

49

43

139

113

85

70

60

54

48

6,380

5,901

5,163

Malaysia

28

25

New Zealand

65

58

Pakistan

13

11

Philippines

23

Singapore

40

South Korea

70

Taiwan

Total

es

Japan

Pr

Indonesia

r

India

Fo

Australia

s

2007

Asia Pacific

†At average 2011 exchange rates.

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

For physical recorded music unit sales data, visit www.pwc.com/outlook

286

PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016

Recorded music market by country† (US$ millions) 2008

2009

2010

2011p

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012–16 CAGR

Australia

641

591

620

535

534

546

568

594

624

659

4.3

China

152

157

162

174

192

213

237

266

295

324

11.0

81

80

76

74

76

76

78

81

84

87

2.7

154

134

130

166

212

245

280

318

369

422

14.8

93

94

97

99

104

109

114

119

125

131

4.7

7,611

7,378

6,647

6,029

5,771

5,571

5,395

5,270

5,207

5,207

–2.0

Malaysia

35

34

32

30

30

31

31

32

34

35

3.1

New Zealand

70

64

63

51

46

48

47

48

49

50

1.7

Pakistan

16

16

16

15

15

15

16

16

17

17

2.5

Philippines

29

29

29

29

29

30

31

32

33

33

2.6

Singapore

50

51

49

46

214

231

318

379

85

70

62

54

Thailand

128

126

131

Vietnam

NA

NA

NA

9,359

9,055

8,432

South Korea Taiwan

Total

n

o

se

Japan

46

48

50

53

57

60

5.5

450

523

601

680

759

829

13.0

U

Indonesia

50

46

43

43

41

41

–3.9

126

125

124

126

129

132

136

1.7

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

—

7,680

7,625

7,617

7,681

7,826

8,031

0.9

s

India

es

Hong Kong

ly

2007

Asia Pacific

7,807

Pr

†At average 2011 exchange rates.

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

r

Concerts and music festivals

Fo

• The concert and music festival market rose 2.1 percent in 2011. Excluding Japan, which fell 3.2 percent, spending rose 7.1 percent.

• Australia attracts international tours and also has a thriving local festival market. Rod Laver Arena was the second-largest-grossing venue in the world in 2011, attracting star acts such as Usher, Michael Bublé, the Eagles, Kylie Minogue, and Metallica.

• Bob Dylan played in the PRC in 2011, and Janet Jackson toured in a number of countries in Asia.

• Popular Australian-based festivals are expanding into other countries. Laneway launched festivals in Singapore and will be expanding into Thailand and South Korea in the next few years. Future Entertainment plans to introduce a Future Music Festival in Malaysia. Australian bands also are touring in Asia.

• Live Nation Entertainment, the largest international promoter, is entering Japan in a joint venture with Creativeman to form Live Nation Japan.

• New festivals and more-aggressive promotion should propel the concert and music festival market, which we expect will expand at a 5.0 percent compound annual rate to $4.3 billion in 2016 from $3.4 billion in 2011.

Music | Asia Pacific

287

2008

2009

2010

2011p

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012–16 CAGR

Australia

413

436

557

604

656

697

733

774

816

857

5.5

China

120

128

139

147

156

167

178

190

203

217

6.8

Hong Kong

74

77

81

84

87

92

96

101

107

112

5.2

India

14

14

28

35

43

50

64

72

78

84

14.3

Indonesia

71

74

80

84

89

95

102

108

114

120

6.2

1,447

1,511

1,575

1,607

1,556

1,590

1,640

1,706

1,772

1,838

3.4

Malaysia

22

23

24

25

26

28

New Zealand

73

78

85

91

98

105

Pakistan

11

12

12

13

13

14

Philippines

22

23

24

25

26

28

Singapore

41

44

46

47

49

339

362

380

384

407

Taiwan

41

43

45

45

Thailand

89

92

97

98

Vietnam

NA

NA

NA

NA

2,777

2,917

3,173

Total

33

34

5.5

127

134

6.5

14

15

16

16

4.2

30

31

33

35

6.1

53

57

60

64

68

6.8

434

461

493

529

565

6.8

3,289

o

31

120

48

50

53

56

59

62

5.3

103

110

117

125

134

143

6.8

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

—

3,513

3,686

3,882

4,085

4,285

5.0

3,357

Fo

r

Pr

†At average 2011 exchange rates.

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

29

112

U

South Korea

s

Japan

es

Asia Pacific

n ly

2007

se

Concert and music festival market† (US$ millions)

Drill down through data across segments, components, and territories. Visit the online Outlook at www.pwc.com/outlook

288

PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016

Latin America The outlook in brief

• Overall recorded music spending will rise from $657 million in 2011 to $711 million in 2016, a 1.6 percent increase on a compound annual basis.

• Broadband growth, rising smartphone and tablet penetration, and new services will drive digital spending.

• Physical distribution will decline from $470 million in 2011 to $336 million in 2016, a 6.5 percent decrease compounded annually.

• Piracy and growth in legitimate digital formats will lead to declines in physical distribution.

• Local festivals will boost the concert and music festival market.

• Digital distribution will reach $375 million in 2016, growing at a 14.9 percent compound annual rate from $187 million in 2011.

Overview

ly

• Concerts and music festivals will grow from $602 million in 2011 to $832 million in 2016, a 6.7 percent compound annual increase.

n

• Spending rose 1.5 percent in 2011 as a 6.0 percent increase in concerts and festivals offset a 2.2 percent decline in recorded music.

o

• The overall music market will expand at a 4.2 percent compound annual rate to $1.5 billion in 2016 from $1.3 billion in 2011.

2008

U 2010

2011p

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

569

514

470

436

406

379

357

336

135

187

219

255

291

332

375

622

80

113

158

Total recorded music

835

735

704

672

657

655

661

670

689

711

Concerts and music festivals

501

525

559

568

602

643

686

742

773

832

1,260

1,263

1,240

1,259

1,298

1,347

1,412

1,462

1,543

Digital distribution

Total

1,336

Fo

Physical distribution

r

755

Pr

Recorded music

2009

es

2007

s

Music market by component† (US$ millions) Latin America

se

• The recorded music market will turn around in 2013 as gains in digital spending begin to offset ongoing declines in physical spending.

†At average 2011 exchange rates.

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

Music market growth by component (%) Latin America

2007

Recorded music

2008

2009

2010

2011p

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012–16 CAGR

Physical distribution

–19.5

–17.6

–8.5

–9.7

–8.6

–7.2

–6.9

–6.7

–5.8

–5.9

–6.5

Digital distribution

158.1

41.3

19.5

17.0

18.4

17.1

16.4

14.1

14.1

13.0

14.9

Total recorded music

–13.8

–12.0

–4.2

–4.5

–2.2

–0.3

0.9

1.4

2.8

3.2

1.6

5.3

4.8

6.5

1.6

6.0

6.8

6.7

8.2

4.2

7.6

6.7

–7.5

–5.7

0.2

–1.8

1.5

3.1

3.8

4.8

3.5

5.5

4.2

Concerts and music festivals Total

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

Music | Latin America

289

• Mexico and Brazil are the largest markets, at $454 million and $453 million, respectively, in 2011. In Mexico, spending was flat in 2011 as a 5.3 percent decline in recorded music was offset by a 6.3 percent increase in concerts and music festivals.

• Colombia and Argentina were next, at $155 million and $108 million, respectively, in 2011. Colombia rose 1.3 percent as a 5.7 percent increase in concerts and music festivals offset a 2.4 percent drop in recorded music.

n ly

• Argentina recorded the steepest decline of any country in Latin America in 2011, with a 2.7 percent decrease.

Recorded music fell 10.0 percent, offsetting a 5.9 percent increase in concerts and music festivals.

• Brazil rose 4.6 percent fueled by a 3.4 percent increase in recorded music, the only country in Latin America to register in 2011 a gain in recorded music and a 6.1 percent increase in concerts and music festivals.

Music market by country† (US$ millions)

2014

2015

2016

2012–16 CAGR

108

109

112

115

1.3

477

501

539

548

587

5.3

69

72

73

77

80

3.3

158

162

167

173

179

2.9

454

466

482

502

528

558

4.2

21

21

22

22

24

24

2.7

1,259

1,298

1,347

1,412

1,462

1,543

4.2

2009

2010

2011p

2012

Argentina

135

127

120

111

108

107

Brazil

457

393

419

433

453

Chile

69

69

70

69

68

Colombia

150

155

157

153

155

Mexico

506

495

476

454

19

21

21

20

1,336

1,260

1,263

1,240

U

r

Digital distribution

Fo

Recorded music

Pr

†At average 2011 exchange rates.

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

s

Total

es

Venezuela

• Digital unit downloads rose 13.6 percent in 2011, and digital spending increased by 18.4 percent.

• Apple’s iTunes, the hugely popular digital download service, launched throughout the region in 2011 following its introduction into Mexico in 2009.

• New streaming service Rara launched in Mexico in 2011, and Sonora is available in Brazil, Colombia, and Argentina.

2013

o

2008

se

2007

Latin America

• Broadband penetration is growing rapidly in Latin America, and high-speed wireless networks are being rolled out. Smartphones and tablets also are penetrating the market, which is expanding the potential market for digital music and attracting new services.

• We project digital unit downloads to increase at a 9.3 percent compound annual rate during the next five years from 158 million in 2011 to 248 million in 2016.

• We project spending on digital music to increase to $375 million in 2016, a 14.9 percent compound annual gain from $187 million in 2011.

• Except for Venezuela, a wide array of digital services is now available in each country, which is stimulating the market.

For digital recorded music unit sales data, visit www.pwc.com/outlook

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PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016

Digital recorded music market† (US$ millions) 2008

2009

2010

2011p

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012–16 CAGR

4

5

6

7

8

9

11

12

14

16

14.9

Brazil

14

26

38

49

63

78

93

108

123

138

17.0

Chile

4

6

7

8

9

10

12

13

15

17

13.6

Colombia

10

13

15

16

18

21

23

26

29

32

12.2

Mexico

47

62

68

77

87

99

113

129

147

167

13.9

1

1

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

5

20.1

80

113

135

158

187

219

255

291

332

375

14.9

Venezuela Total

n

Argentina

ly

2007

Latin America

Physical distribution

• We project spending on physical music to fall at a 6.5 percent compound annual rate to $336 million in 2016 from $470 million in 2011.

s

U

• Physical unit sales fell 10.1 percent in 2011. Piracy and competition from legitimate digital services continue to erode the physical market.

se

o

†At average 2011 exchange rates.

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

Pr

es

• We look for this trend to continue, with unit sales falling at a 7.6 percent compound annual rate to 49 million by 2016 from 73 million in 2011.

Total recorded music • Gains in digital spending will begin to offset declines in physical spending in 2013. Total spending on recorded music will increase at a 1.6 percent compound annual rate to $711 million in 2016 from $657 million in 2011.

r

Physical recorded music market† (US$ millions)

Argentina

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011p

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012–16 CAGR

87

76

64

53

46

41

36

33

30

27

–10.1

Fo

Latin America

272

187

189

186

180

174

168

162

156

150

–3.6

Chile

37

34

32

29

26

24

23

21

20

19

–6.1

Colombia

77

76

72

67

63

59

56

53

51

49

–4.9

272

238

201

169

146

129

115

103

93

85

–10.3

10

11

11

10

9

9

8

7

7

6

–7.8

755

622

569

514

470

436

406

379

357

336

–6.5

Brazil

Mexico Venezuela Total

†At average 2011 exchange rates.

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

For physical recorded music unit sales data, visit www.pwc.com/outlook

Music | Latin America

291

Recorded music market by country† (US$ millions) 2008

2009

2010

2011p

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012–16 CAGR

91

81

70

60

54

50

47

45

44

43

–4.5

Brazil

286

213

227

235

243

252

261

270

279

288

3.5

Chile

41

40

39

37

35

34

35

34

35

36

0.6

Colombia

87

89

87

83

81

80

79

79

80

81

0.0

319

300

269

246

233

228

228

232

240

252

1.6

11

12

12

11

11

11

11

10

11

11

0.0

835

735

704

672

657

655

661

670

689

711

1.6

Argentina

Mexico Venezuela Total

se

o

†At average 2011 exchange rates.

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

n ly

2007

Latin America

Concerts and music festivals

• We expect that the market in Brazil will benefit in 2014 and 2016 from international visitors for the FIFA World Cup and Summer Olympics, respectively.

U

• The concert and music festival market rose 6.0 percent in 2011 to $602 million.

• In Latin America there is strong interest in music, and local festivals are doing well.

es

s

• The popular Lollapalooza Festivals in the United States also are presences in Brazil and Chile, attracting name acts in 2011 such as Foo Fighters and Arctic Monkeys. In Brazil in 2011, the Rock in Rio festival attracted a daily audience of more than 100,000 to see international and local acts. Rock in Rio will return to Brazil in 2013. Rock festivals in Brazil are being boosted by economic growth.

r

Pr

• An expanding economy should continue to propel this market, which we expect will expand at a 6.7 percent compound annual rate to $832 million in 2016.

Fo

Concert and music festival market† (US$ millions) 2008

2009

2010

2011p

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2012–16 CAGR

44

46

50

51

54

57

61

64

68

72

5.9

Brazil

171

180

192

198

210

225

240

269

269

299

7.3

Chile

28

29

31

32

33

35

37

39

42

44

5.9

Colombia

63

66

70

70

74

78

83

88

93

98

5.8

187

195

207

208

221

238

254

270

288

306

6.7

8

9

9

9

10

10

11

12

13

13

5.4

501

525

559

568

602

643

686

742

773

832

6.7

Latin America Argentina

Mexico Venezuela Total

2007

†At average 2011 exchange rates.

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

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PwC | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2012–2016