EMF
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Quarterly Review of European Mortgage Markets 3rd Quarter 2011
QUARTERLY STATISTICS European Mortgage Federation Alessandro Sciamarelli | Head of Statistics | asciamarelli@hypo.org | Tel: +32 2 285 40 42
weak macroeconomic environment, ongoing sovereign debt and funding crises conThe tinue to dampen mortgage demand, with a continuation of the subdued trend in mortgage lending observed across most EU markets in Q1 and Q2 2011, Germany and the UK being the only exceptions. Housing markets conditions continue to deteriorate, even though with different trends across countries. Nominal house prices increased on a yearly basis only in Belgium, France, Germany and Sweden. Monetary policies were further tightened over the summer of 2011 but quickly reversed to expansionary stance in Q4. As a result, mortgage interest rates recorded only small movements and remained at low levels.
New mortgage lending in the EU continues to suffer from poor economic growth, high unemployment rates, funding problems and sovereign debt crisis In Q3 2011, the general subdued trend observed in Q1 and Q2 2011 was confirmed. New lending markets generally recorded poor performances, which in most cases were weaker than in Q2 2011 (Table 2). The macroeconomic context continued to be unsupportive of mortgage demand: the only EU economy in recession in Q3 2011 was Portugal, but everywhere GDP growth rates have clearly lost further momentum (Chart 5); unemployment rates have not decreased, except for Germany and Sweden (Table 6). Continued tightening in lending criteria, persistent funding difficulties due to the drought in inter-bank lending market and the uncertainty stemming from the sovereign debt crisis have all contributed to subdued performances in national mortgage markets in Q3 2011.
In the UK, gross lending recorded increases of 17.7% quarter-on-quarter and of 3.6% year-on-year (the latter following a 3.1% fall in Q2 2011). A 21% increase in house purchase lending was the main driver of this quarterly increase, but house purchase lending was still 5% lower than Q3 last year. There was also an increase in remortgage lending which grew by 15% compared to Q2 2011 and by 25% on a yearly basis. The Danish mortgage market has been very subdued through 2011 and this trend has continued in Q3 2011. Net residential lending fell to EUR 1.1 billion which is very low in historical terms. Since 1995, net mortgage lending has on average been worth EUR 3 billion per quarter in nominal terms. Gross mortgage
Q32011 lending increased by 10.4% on a quarterly basis but is still low in a historical context, i.e. well below the values recorded in the last two quarters of 2010. The main reason for this performance is the high degree of uncertainty in the economy and the housing market. For the economy as a whole, this is reflected in a drop in real GDP of 0.5% in Q3 2011. Moreover, demand for new loans is very low at the moment due to depressed housing market activity. The Spanish mortgage market did not yet show signs of recovery in Q3 2011. In fact, new mortgage lending went down on a yearly basis by 23.8% (following from a 58.2% fall in Q2 2011), reaching a new record low. On a quarterly basis, it decreased by 17.8% (5.1% in Q2). Available data for October 2011 seems to confirm the downward trend over the year; indeed, 2011 is going to be one of the toughest years for the mortgage market since the onset of the crisis. Liquidity problems stemming from the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area and the continued deleveraging process - undertaken by both financial institutions and households - were the main reasons behind these developments. As a result, total outstanding mortgage lending is expected to close the year with a decrease of 6%. In Ireland, new mortgage lending continued at a subdued level in Q2 and Q3 2011. The number of mortgages issued increased slightly by 1.6% in Q3 2011, compared with Q2 2011 and by 50.3% year-on-year, down to 3,607 loans, according to the IBF/PwC Mortgage Market Profile. Similarly the value of mortgage drawdowns decreased marginally by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and fell by 49.7% compared to Q2 2011 at EUR 623 million. In terms of net lending, the trend of household deleveraging continued with the total amount of residential mortgage debt outstanding, including securitisations, decreasing by 7.7% year-on-year to about EUR 132 billion at the end of September 2011 (Table 1). Continued uncertainty regarding income and employment prospects is having an impact on mortgage demand. Unemployment averaged more than 14% for the first nine months of 2011 and real GDP dropped by 1.9% in Q3 2011, following two quarters of growth. A further decrease in household disposable income is expected over 2012 with changes to taxation policy and new household charges. Indications for mortgage lending in Q4 are a continuation of the same trend as in Q3. The National Management Asset Agency (NAMA), which is the asset recovery vehicle for property development loan books of domestic lenders, signalled it was developing a proposed solution for potential house buyers who have an interest and a capacity to purchase but who are constrained by fears that prices may fall further from current levels. NAMA plans to trial the proposed solution with mortgage lenders in early 2012. The government confirmed in December 2011 that mortgage interest relief would no longer be available for new homebuyers after 2012 but offered enhanced relief in 2012. Lending conditions remained difficult with lenders reporting that credit standards tightened somewhat in Q3 2011.
EMF Quarterly Review
In Germany gross residential lending increased by 6.9% quarter-on-quarter and by 4.6% year-on-year. The mortgage market is in healthy condition, reflecting positive developments in the economy, a decreasing unemployment rate (Table 6) and real GDP growth (in year-on-year terms) set to exceed 2%, well above the EU average (Chart 6). In Poland, outstanding mortgage lending in Q3 2011 reached PLN 313 billion (EUR 75 billion), an increase of 24.5% year-on-year (Table 1). Net lending was negative by PLN 6 billion (EUR 1.5 billion) (Table 3). Over the first three quarters of 2011, loans denominated in EUR have gained popularity: as of Q3 2011, 78.4% of new lending was PLN-denominated, while 11.8% were in EUR and 9.8% in CHF. Mortgage demand is expected to remain weak over the coming quarters due to new regulations coming into force at the end of 2011, while banks generally continued to tighten their lending criteria. In Portugal gross mortgage lending went down by 63.4%, a more severe decrease than in Q2 2011 (47.6%), and went down to its record low in absolute terms. The mortgage market downturn is expected to continue over the coming quarters, due to the implementation of the banking sector’s deleveraging plan set out in the bailout programme agreed with the Troika (the EU, the ECB and the IMF) and plummeting consumer confidence. In Belgium, the value of gross mortgage lending went down by 8.8% quarteron-quarter and by 6.2% year-on-year, but remained at very high levels. The mismatch with the 6.5% growth rate in the number of mortgage contracts can be explained by the fact that a significant number of credits has been granted for renovation purposes (in most cases, for small amounts). This reflected, among other things, the fact that some government measures such as “green credit” with interest subsidy came to an end at the end of 2011, while other measures, such as the tax deduction for energy saving investments have been discontinued. It should also be pointed out that new charges, such as VAT on notary fees, were announced, resulting in a real rush to secure mortgage credit during Q4 2011. Consumers wanted to benefit from the above measures before they expired, so figures for Q4 2011 are expected to mirror another robust growth rate in new lending. The Italian mortgage market recorded another year-on-year drop in new residential lending (by 18.6%) following that already experienced in Q2 2011 (by 17%). Weak macroeconomic conditions, deteriorating consumer confidence and the worries stemming from the sovereign debt crisis over the summer which increased funding costs for lenders - were behind this poor performance.
In Sweden, although the domestic macroeconomic environment continued to be very supportive, gross lending in Q3 2011 was at its lowest level since Q3 2008, and fell by 12.6% quarter-on-quarter (by 20% year-on-year). Net mortgage lending has slowed since Q1 2011, levelling off at EUR 3.2 billion in Q3 2011 (Table 3). The slowdown in mortgage lending is the result of several reasons: firstly, mortgage interest rates increased over recent last quarters (Tables 5A and 5B); secondly, lending criteria have tightened due to the LTV-roof of 85% imposed by the Swedish FSA, with banks demanding amortisation on mortgages with LTV ratios higher than 75%; lastly, the general uncertainty resulting from the persisting international sovereign debt crisis in having an impact on the market. In Q3 2011 the Swedish economy continued to outperform all other EU economies, albeit at a lower rate: real GDP increased year-on-year by 4.6% (4.8% in Q2). Latest EU economic forecast, however, signal a considerable slowdown for the economy in 2012 (with a real GDP growth rate of 1.4%).
In Hungary, new lending went down by 24.6% compared to Q3 2010 and by 6.7% compared to Q2 2011. Mortgage interest rates on HUF-denominated mortgage loans have stayed above 10% over the first three quarters of 2011 (Table 5A). Potential borrowers are very reluctant to borrow given the general sentiment and the current economic circumstances. A growing problem is the fact that 65% of the outstanding residential portfolio is foreign-currency denominated, and this has been exacerbated by the further depreciation of the HUF against the CHF (by roughly 10% in Q3 2011). This depreciation also explains why in nominal terms total outstanding residential HUF-denominated loans increased in Q3 2011 (Table 1). However, this increase is merely a result of the depreciation of the HUF, the real trend being stagnation. The outlook for economic growth is weakened by the global economic uncertainty, the tight fiscal measures of the Hungarian government and general domestic lending conditions. The Government has tried to ease the burden of households who are indebted in foreign currency mortgage loans and has introduced new relief programs for debtors, but these steps have not significantly impacted the market.
In France, new lending dropped in Q3 2011 by 7.8% quarter-on-quarter and by 17.2% on Q3 2010 but remained at high levels historically; since Q1 2011, the value of new lending has seen small movements between EUR 30 and EUR 35 billion at each quarter. However, mortgage demand is expected to lose momentum in Q4 2011 due to the sovereign debt crises in the euro area.
In Romania, outstanding mortgage loans increased by around 14% in Q3 2011 on a year-on-year basis. EUR-denominated loans amounted to over 95% of new loans in Q3 2011. Banks continued to ease their lending criteria, and the government programme Prima Casă (“First House”) accounted for more than a half of new mortgage loans in Q3 2011.
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Chart 1
T otal Outstanding Residential Lending, year-on-year growth rates (%)
25.0
Q3 2011 Q2 2011
20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0
Source: European Mortgage Federation
0.0 -5.0
Note: Please note that figures are calculated on values expressed in local currencies for non-euro area countries.
-10.0
Chart 2
Greece
Spain
UK
Portugal
Denmark
Germany
Netherlands
Italy
Sweden
Hungary
Belgium
France
Romania
Poland
-15.0
Gross Residential Lending, year-on-year growth rates (%)
20.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0 -20.0
Q3 2011 Q2 2011
-30.0 -40.0
Source: European Mortgage Federation
-50.0
Note: Please note that figures are calculated on values expressed in local currencies for non-euro area countries.
Denmark
Ireland
Hungary
Spain
Sweden
Italy
France
Belgium
UK
-70.0
Germany
-60.0
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30.0
20.0
Denmark
Spain
France
Ireland
Sweden
UK
Portugal
Germany
Netherlands
Greece
Hungary
Chart 3 Nominal House Prices year-on-year growth rates, % (Q1 2006-Q3 2011)
10.0
0.0
-10.0
-20.0
II 2011
III 2011
I 2011
IV 2010
III 2010
I 2010
II 2010
III 2009
IV 2009
I 2009
II 2009
IV 2008
II 2008
III 2008
I 2008
III 2007
IV 2007
I 2007
II 2007
IV 2006
II 2006
III 2006
Source: European Mortgage Federation I 2006
-30.0
Chart 4 Nominal House Price Indices (Q4 2005=100)
140 130 120 110 100 90 Denmark France Greece Hungary Spain UK
80 70
Note: standardised nominal house price indices on national values
4 | Q3 2011 EMF QUARTERLY REVIEW
II 2011
III 2011
I 2011
IV 2010
II 2010
III 2010
I 2010
IV 2009
II 2009
III 2009
I 2009
III 2008
IV 2008
II 2008
I 2008
IV 2007
III 2007
II 2007
I 2007
IV 2006
III 2006
II 2006
I 2006
Source: European Mortgage Federation
IV 2005
60
Germany Ireland Portugal Netherlands Sweden
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Chart 5
Real GDP, quarter-on-quarter growth rates (%)
2.0 Q3 2011 Q2 2011
1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0
Chart 6
Ireland
Portugal
Denmark
Netherlands
Italy
Belgium
Spain
euro area
France
EU27
Hungary
Germany
UK
Poland
Sweden
Romania
-2.5
Source: Eurostat
Real GDP, year-on-year growth rates (%)
6.0 5.0 Q3 2011 Q2 2011
4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0
Portugal
Ireland
Denmark
Italy
UK
Spain
Netherlands
euro area
EU27
Hungary
France
Belgium
Germany
Poland
Romania
Source: Eurostat
Sweden
-3.0
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Housing market conditions deteriorate, with few exceptions In the UK, house prices reversed their trend and recorded their first quarteron-quarter increase after three consecutive falls, but the downward trend on the same quarter of the previous year continued (1.4%, more or less as in Q2, i.e. 1.6%). House prices have recorded small movements over the first three quarters of 2011 and now are at the same levels of Q2 2010 (Chart 4). Low interest rates continue to sustain house prices, but pressures on disposable household income from rising food and fuel prices and increased taxes keeps a limit on the potential for further growth. In Sweden, in Q3 2011 prices have decreased on a quarterly basis for the first time since Q3 2009 (by 0.2%), equating with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.9%, i.e. the lowest of the last nine quarters. However, the deceleration from the strong price increases which were observed from Q4 2009 to Q1 2011 (Table 5) is resulting in a “soft landing”, although latest figures available reveal that house prices have fallen by around 4% to 5% in Q4 2011. Moreover, the number of houses and apartments for sale has increased over the year 2011. Particularly, the number of one-family houses for sale has reached a three-year peak. The slowdown in the housing market is expected to continue, despite the favourable domestic economic developments, due to the global economic uncertainty. The French housing market recorded a bullish performance also in Q3 2011, with growth in house prices gaining further momentum (6.3% year-on-year, corresponding to a more modest 0.9% increase on Q2 2011). Breaking down the national figure, apartment prices grew year-on-year by a spectacular 9% (19.1% in Paris). The same developments were observed in Belgium, where national house prices went up on Q2 2011 by 3% (i.e. the highest quarterly increase since Q3 2007) equating with a 4.2% increase year-on-year. It is worth highlighting that yearly growth in house prices has been at least 4% in every quarter since Q1 2010 (Table 4). In Denmark, house prices have fallen by 6.6% in yearly terms. It also was the fifth consecutive quarter-on-quarter decrease (by 4.3%, i.e. higher than in the previous four quarters). The housing market situation is in the worst state of the last two years. Except for the extraordinary plunge in prices in late 2008 and 2009, similar price slumps have not occurred since the crisis of the early 1990s. As was the case back then, the economic uncertainty makes buyers reluctant to enter the market. This has resulted in fewe transactions and falling prices. In Ireland, in Q3 2011 the rate of decline in house prices accelerated. Prices of all residential properties (houses and apartments) nationally fell by 14.3% year-on-year, 3.8% quarter-on-quarter (with house prices declining by 13.9%). The correction from peak (Q3 2007) in national house prices
6 | Q3 2011 EMF QUARTERLY REVIEW
stood at 44% by the end of September 2011. There is still a considerable volume of supply on the market, with around 60,000 units available for sale, according to the property website Daft.ie. A tighter rental market combined with improvement in house purchase affordability may encourage prospective homebuyers to enter the market. In Spain, housing demand in Q3 2011 was affected by weak economic development as market operators probably decided to wait-and-see until the new government settled in at the end of November. House prices decreased by 1.3% on Q2 2011 (5.6% on a yearly basis), and the cumulative peak-totrough fall in house prices (from Q1 2008 to Q3 2011) reached 18%. Housing transactions decreased by 29.3% over the first three quarters of 2011 compared to the corresponding period of 2010, as the downward trend in Q3 2011 did not reverse resulting in a drop of 17% in quarterly terms. In Germany, house prices continued to increase in Q3 201, i.e. by 1.7% year-on-year and by 1.4% quarter-on-quarter, the highest quarterly increase since Q2 2010. In Portugal, the national house price index decreased year-on-year for the first time since Q4 2009 (by 0.8%), which was consistent with the second – albeit negligible – quarter-on-quarter decrease (0.1% in Q3 2011 after 0.3% in Q2). This is the result of the deteriorating economic situation and decreasing household confidence. Residential construction costs continued to increase (by 1.2% year-on-year) as a result of rising costs of building materials, rising energy prices and also higher taxes on transactions. In Hungary, the decline in house prices slowed down in Q3 2011, resulting in a 1.5% fall in yearly terms and a 1% fall on a quarterly basis. As the bulk of the correction was realised one and a half years ago, in 2010 and in 2011 the downward trend in prices has moderated (Table 4). In 2011, supply of new dwellings has further declined. Residential construction activity during 2011 has continued to drop considerably (building permits went down by 32.5% in Q3 2011 compared to Q3 2010). Housing demand is being further weakened by household poor income and high unemployment which pose serious constraints to purchase decisions, although household real disposable income grew slightly during 2011. In Romania, average house prices fell in Q3 2011 by 16% compared to Q3 2010 and by 7.5% on a quarterly basis. A similar pattern is also expected for Q4 2011. According to the latest Romanian National Bank’s Bank Lending Survey (November 2011), demand for new loans should continue to follow a downward trend in Q4 2011, albeit dampened by consumer expectation of higher unemployment rates over the next 12 months.
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Interest rates record small movements as monetary policy temporarily tightens in Q3 2011 Monetary policies in the EU moved in two opposite directions during the last two quarters of 2011, with evident repercussions on mortgage interest rates passed on to borrowers. Q3 2011 saw a general tightening in monetary policy across the EU, while Q4 2011 was dominated by a complete monetary policy reversal. Central Banks focused on credit conditions and the state of the economy rather on inflationary concerns. The ECB increased its policy rate from 1.25% to 1.50% on 13 July but then, as inflationary pressures eased, lowered its rate by 50 bps with two consecutive cuts in Q4 (between November and December 2011), taking the main refinancing rate back to 1.00% (i.e. the level observed between Q2 2009 and Q2 2011). Other Central Banks followed the same pattern. The Danish Central Bank raised its policy rate from 1.00% to 1.25% on 8 July, but made two consecutive cuts, down to 1.00% on 4 November and to 0.75% on 9 December. The Swedish Central Bank (Riksbank) raised its repo rate on 6 July 2011 to 2.00%. Due to the deteriorating sovereign debt crisis over the autumn, the Riksbank lowered the repo rate in December down to 1.75%.
As a result of these monetary policy actions, in Q3 2011 representative mortgage interest rates recorded some quarterly increases in most markets (ranging from 16 bps in the Netherlands to 42 bps in Portugal) but remained low in historical terms (Table 5A). Most markets recorded increases on a year-on-year basis. For example, in Sweden, in Q3 2011 representative variable interest rates went up by 167 basis points (bps) year-on-year (by 25 bps quarter-on-quarter), i.e. up to 3.90%. On the other hand, fixed interest rates have slightly decreased on Q2 2011, i.e. by 59 bps, reaching 4.42%. In Hungary, the average interest rate on new HUF-denominated rose compared to the second half of 2010, staying above 10% in the first three quarters of 2011; since lending in CHF and EUR has been prohibited, the share of HUF-denominated loans out of total new loans in Q3 2011 continued to be close to 100% (Table 5D). In Portugal, representative mortgage rates on new loans increased compared to Q3 2010 by 151 bps and reached 4.16%. There were few exceptions to this picture, with representative mortgage rates down compared to Q3 2010 by 75 bps in the UK, by 33 bps in Denmark and by 14 bps in Romania.
Contributing National Experts BE: Frans MEEL (Union Professionnelle du Crédit) > DK: Kaare CHRISTENSEN (Association of Danish Mortgage Banks) > DE: Thomas HOFER (Verband deutscher Pfandbriefbanken) > ES: Irene PEÑA CUENCA (Asociaciòn Hipotecaria Española) > FR: Jean-Marie GAMBRELLE (Crédit Immobilier de France) > HU: Gyula NAGY (Hungarian Banking Association) > IE: Anthony O’BRIEN (Irish Banking Federation) > IT: Marco MARINO (Associazione Bancaria Italiana) > PL: Agnieszka NIERODKA (Mortgage Credit Foundation), Jacek RYSZEWSKI (BRE Bank SA) > PT: Maria Lúcia BICA, João NEVES (Caixa Economica Montepio Geral) > RO: Stefan DINA (Romanian Banking Association) > SE: Christian NILSSON (Swedish Bankers’ Association) > UK: Caroline PURDEY (Council of Mortgage Lenders)
Note on definitions: Total Outstanding Residential Mortgage Lending: total amount of existing residential loans on lenders’ balance sheets at the end of the period. Gross Residential Lending: total amount of new loans advanced during the period. It is often dubbed in the text as “new lending”. Net Residential Lending: new loans advanced during the period minus repayments. It also corresponds to the change in outstanding mortgage loans at the end of the period. EMF QUARTERLY REVIEW Q3 2011 |
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Country Insight: Romania / by Gabriela Folcuţ and Ştefan Dina, Romanian Banking Association In 2011, after two consecutive years of contraction, Romania’s economy recorded a growth rate of 2.5%; the largest contribution to the increase in Gross Domestic Product came from the industrial sector, external demand and agriculture. In Q4 2011, the slowdown of the industry growth rate and the downturn in western economies led to the contraction of the Romanian economy, as real GDP went down by 0.2% in Q4 2011 on a year-on-year basis. Due to the prolonged uncertainty stemming from the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area, according to the forecast for 2012 real GDP is expected to experience a recession ranging from 1.5% to 2%. Moreover, the limited contribution from European funds (which did not compensate the drop in net capital flows) imposed an increase in funding from the EU and the IMF. Net grant inflows from the EU amounted to EUR 2.6 billion in 2011. The agreement between the Romanian authorities and EU, IMF and World Bank, as well as the fact that Romania met its inflation target and financial stability criteria, were essential to restore sustainable economic growth and maintain Romania’s rating. In 2011, Romania reached its deficit target, i.e. 4.4% of GDP; for 2012, the deficit target has been set at 3% of GDP. Last year, the inflation rate was in line with the target set by the National Bank of Romania (NBR), and reached 3.1% in December 2011, therefore within the range established by the Central Bank, i.e. 3% plus or minus one percentage point. The fact that the annual inflation rate is at its 20-year low allowed the National bank of Romania (NBR) to cut its policy rate from 6.25% to 5.50%, with three consecutive cuts. The current level of minimum reserve requirements, which is applicable to credit institutions’ liabilities in national currency and in foreign currency respectively, stands at 15% for the former and at 20% for the latter. For 2012, the NBR has set the same inflation target as in 2011. Developments in inflation, as well as its deviations from the 3% target, are strongly linked to the international economic environment and the significant volatility of the RON exchange rate. In 2011, the current account recorded a deficit of EUR 5.7 billion, up by 3% compared to 2010.
Chart 1
Last year, Romania’s external debt went up by 6.6% compared to the level observed in 2010. In order to avoid the accumulation of payments in periods when international financial markets are particularly under stress, maturities for shortterm debts have generally been extended. Despite tensions in international financial markets and the ongoing pressures on net results reported by credit institutions - against the backdrop of the deterioration of their loan portfolio quality - the Romanian banking sector was capable to maintain its flexibility. The measures that were adopted prevented the global crisis from affecting the Romanian banking sector. Other relevant factors were the measures taken by the National Bank of Romania, the quality of its management, the absence of “toxic” operations and the contribution of shareholders who saw great potential in the Romanian market development also in the aftermath of the crisis. The solvency ratio of the banking sector stood at 14.5% at the end of 2011, according to NBR data. The minimum solvency level of credit institutions was set at 8%, but during the prudential supervision process, the NBR has imposed a minimum level of 10%. Parent banking institutions have so far continued to support the credit institutions operating on the Romanian banking market, so that there was no need for bail-outs. During 2011, corporate lending activity picked up but, nonetheless, growth in lending was rather weak, due to the low demand for loans. Thus in 2011 nongovernment credit went up by 6.6% (3.3% in real terms) compared to 2010, taking into account the increases by 5.6% in the RON-denominated component and 7.2% in the foreign-denominated one. In 2011, non-government credit gained momentum particularly due to loans granted to corporations, while the household segment benefited mainly from the “Prima casă” (“First House”’) programme which aims at fostering the purchase or construction of housing units. Since the onset of the crisis, mortgage lending has continued to increase, so that the value of outstanding mortgage loans went from EUR 5.4 billion at end-2008 to EUR 7.8 billion at end-2011. According to the NBR’s lending survey, household demand for new loans for house purchase marginally went up in Q4 2011, in line with lenders’ expectations (Chart 1). In Q4 2011, the price of residential housing units decreased for the third consecutive year. Banks expect this trend to continue in the first half of 2012.
Changes in household loan demand, %
100
Actual values
80
Expected values
60 40 20 0 -20 -40
Note: N et percentage – positive values indicate an increase in demand
-60 -80 2008 Q1 2008 Q3 2009 Q1 2009 Q3 2010 Q1 2010 Q3 2011 Q1 2011 Q3 2012 Q1
2008 Q1 2008 Q3 2009 Q1 2009 Q3 2010 Q1 2010 Q3 2011 Q1 2011 Q3 2012 Q1
2008 Q1 2008 Q3 2009 Q1 2009 Q3 2010 Q1 2010 Q3 2011 Q1 2011 Q3 2012 Q1
Source: NBR
2008 Q1 2008 Q3 2009 Q1 2009 Q3 2010 Q1 2010 Q3 2011 Q1 2011 Q3 2012 Q1
-100
Mortgage loans
Total consumer loans, of which:
Mortgage-backed consumer loans
Credit cards
8 | Q3 2011 EMF QUARTERLY REVIEW
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EMF Quarterly Review Table 1
Total Outstanding Residential Mortgage Lending (Million EUR)
IV 2009
I 2010
II 2010
III 2010
IV 2010
I 2011
II 2011
III 2011
latest previous y-o-y y-o-y change change (%) (%) (Q3 11), (Q2 11), EUR values EUR values
latest y-o-y change (%) (Q3 11), local currency
previous y-o-y change (%) (Q2 11), local currency
BE
141,780
144,187
146,811
149,750
153,207
155,405
159,035
161,383
7.8
8.3
7.8
8.3
DK
230,138
230,894
232,526
234,023
235,198
234,532
235,275
236,237
0.9
1.2
1.0
1.4
DE
1,146,969
1,142,702
1,143,236
1,148,882
1,152,195
1,151,143
1,155,033
1,160,628
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
GR
80,559
81,173
81,430
81,201
80,507
79,823
79,800
79,170
-2.5
-2.0
-2.5
-2.0
FR
737,600
745,000
756,500
773,300
796,600
808,400
825,000
835,900
8.1
9.1
8.1
9.1
ES
678,872
679,106
680,794
678,964
680,100
674,801
674,753
671,040
-1.2
-0.9
-1.2
-0.9
IE
147,947
146,763
144,240
143,279
135,806
134,000
133,069
132,302
-7.7
-7.7
-7.7
-7.7
IT
291,160
298,141
346,277
349,318
352,012
355,636
359,011
360,656
3.2
3.7
3.2
3.7
HU
22,425
22,861
24,831
23,353
24,853
23,513
25,089
25,777
10.4
1.0
7.5
-2.1
NL
613,366
612,801
617,249
619,610
626,488
630,310
638,211
639,152
3.2
3.4
3.2
3.4
PL
51,720
54,569
62,099
62,781
67,669
68,682
73,005
75,454
20.2
17.6
24.5
15.9
PT
110,685
111,835
113,197
114,019
114,515
115,426
115,198
114,661
0.6
1.8
0.6
1.8
RO
5,650
5,978
6,588
6,492
6,680
6,578
7,151
7,387
13.8
8.5
13.9
7.3
SE
236,167
249,997
263,878
274,230
283,666
298,828
297,844
296,789
8.2
12.9
5.5
5.7
UK
1,372,861
1,393,827
1,457,088
1,490,928
1,442,407
1,451,183
1,405,197
1,416,849
-5.0
-3.6
0.1
0.2
Note: non seasonally-adjusted data. Source: European Mortgage Federation Quarterly figures for non-euro area countries are converted using 3-m average of EUR exchange rate as published in the ECB Monthly Bulletin. Please note that the Swedish historical data has been revised due to a change in the statistical sources. Please note the Polish data for Q1 2010 should not be compared with the corresponding figure of the previous year due to a change in methodology. Please note that the Central Bank of Ireland issued revised time-series in June 2010 to account for revaluations and reclassifications. Q4 2010 figure includes change in methodology from the Central Bank of Ireland moving to figures reported net of impairment provisions. The Q4 2010 figures are also affected by the exit of a credit institution from the market.
Table 2
Gross Residential Mortgage Lending (Million EUR)
III 2009
IV 2009
I 2010
BE
6,143
6,381
5,535
DK
11,874
13,591
DE
21,300
22,300
II 2010
III 2010
IV 2010
I 2011
6,462
6,775
7,996
6,819
11,764
9,570
13,114
13,012
6,197
18,900
21,400
23,700
26,500
23,500
II 2011
6,965
III 2011
latest y-o-y change (%) (Q3 11), EUR values
previous y-o-y change (%) (Q2 11), EUR values
latest y-o-y change (%) (Q3 11), local currency
previous y-o-y change (%) (Q2 11), local currency
6,355
-6.2
7.8
-6.2
7.8
5,806
6,416
-51.1
-39.3
-51.1
-39.2
23,200
24,800
4.6
8.4
4.6
8.4
FR
29,640
33,070
29,220
32,478
40,125
45,246
33,569
36,060
33,238
-17.2
11.0
-17.2
11.0
HU
497
401
364
388
333
313
268
285
257
-22.6
-26.5
-24.6
-28.7
ES
17,143
17,088
15,395
20,336
9,168
16,087
8,089
8,503
6,986
-23.8
-58.2
-23.8
-58.2
IE
2,145
1,760
1,220
1,305
1,239
982
577
624
623
-49.7
-52.2
-49.7
-52.2
IT
13,663
18,740
16,046
18,970
14,313
17,257
15,354
15,752
11,647
-18.6
-17.0
-18.6
-17.0
NL
17,037
18,431
13,916
16,581
17,423
19,607
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
PT
2,508
2,558
2,476
2,690
2,639
2,300
1,734
1,409
965
-63.4
-47.6
-63.4
-47.6
SE
9,600
11,046
9,568
12,130
11,068
12,363
9,408
10,530
9,076
-18.0
-13.2
-20.0
-18.7
UK
44,829
43,030
33,472
40,494
45,525
39,136
35,191
37,790
44,749
-1.7
-6.7
3.6
-3.1
Note: non seasonally-adjusted data. Source: European Mortgage Federation Quarterly figures for non-euro area countries are converted using 3-m average of EUR exchange rate as published in the ECB Monthly Bulletin. German and Hungarian series have been revised.
EMF QUARTERLY REVIEW Q3 2011 |
9
Q32011 Table 3
EMF Quarterly Review
Net Residential Mortgage Lending (Million EUR)
III 2009
IV 2009
BE
3,196
824
DK
2,180
DE
3,251
GR
I 2010
II 2010
III 2010
IV 2010
2,407
2,624
2,939
3,456
1,839
1,371
1,532
1,799
1,167
2,604
-4,707
474
5,068
4,181
826
999
614
257
-229
-694
FR
10,500
12,600
7,400
11,500
16,800
ES
0,173
1,022
331
1,682
-1,830
I 2011
2,198
II 2011
latest previous latest y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y change change change (%) (%) (%) (Q3 (Q3 11), (Q2 11), 11), local EUR values EUR values currency
III 2011
previous y-o-y change (%) (Q2 11), local currency
3,630
2,348
-20.1
38.3
-20.1
38.3
912
818
1,060
-41.0
-46.6
-41.0
-46.5
-1,780
3,999
5,375
6.1
n/a
6.1
n/a
-684
-23
-630
175.1
-108.9
175.1
-108.9
23,300
11,800
16,600
10,900
-35.1
44.3
-35.1
44.3
1,244
-5,407
-48
-3,713
102.9
-102.8
-60.1
76.5
IE
-444
-404
-1,184
-2,523
-961
-7,473
-643
-603
-659
31.4
76.1
31.4
76.1
IT
3,036
6,720
6,981
48,136
3,041
2,694
3,624
3,375
1,650
-45.7
-93.0
-45.7
-93.0
NL
2,176
3,541
-681
4,477
2,361
6,878
3,822
7,901
941
-60.1
76.5
-60.1
76.5
HU
15
-51
-60
-85
4
-79
23
-95
-173
n/a
11.5
n/a
8.0
PL
112
1,287
473
7,941
572
4,202
660
4,559
-1,480
-358.7
-42.6
-367.9
-43.4
PT
1,185
2,201
1,150
1,362
822
496
911
-228
-537
-165.3
-116.7
-165.3
-116.7
SE
4,523
5,106
4,247
5,668
3,318
5,022
3,411
4,025
3,172
-4.4
-29.0
-6.8
-33.5
UK
5,313
4,598
597
2,987
4,142
1,936
709
2,545
n/a
n/a
-14.8
n/a
-11.5
Note: non seasonally-adjusted data.
Source: European Mortgage Federation
Quarterly figures for non-euro area countries are converted using 3-m average of EUR exchange rate as published in the ECB Monthly Bulletin. Please note that the Swedish historical data has been revised due to a change in the statistical sources. Please note the Polish data for Q1 2010 should not be compared with the corresponding figure of the previous year due to a change in methodology. Please note that the Central Bank of Ireland issued revised time-series in June 2010 to account for revaluations and reclassifications. The Spanish data for Q3 2009 should be read as EUR 173,000.
Table 4
House Price Indices, nominal year-on-year growth rates (%)
II 2008
III 2008 IV 2008
I 2009
II 2009
III 2009 IV 2009
I 2010
II 2010
III 2010 IV 2010
I 2011
II 2011
III 2011
BE
6.8
4.0
3.3
-0.5
-1.7
-1.4
2.0
5.0
5.8
5.9
4.4
4.8
3.6
4.2
-2.4
1.1
2.1
2.0
2.9
1.3
1.7
DE
4.7
4.3
4.9
1.3
-1.8
-2.0
-2.5
DK
-2.4
-4.5
-9.8
-14.2
-12.8
-10.5
-2.8
2.7
3.5
4.0
1.9
-0.1
-2.6
-6.6
GR
1.5
5.6
3.3
-0.2
3.0
-5.6
-4.5
-2.2
-9.5
-4.2
-7.2
-3.8
-0.2
-3.1
ES
2.0
0.3
-3.2
-6.8
-8.3
-8.0
-6.3
-4.7
-3.7
-3.7
-3.5
-4.7
-5.2
-5.6
FR
2.8
0.6
-3.9
-7.3
-9.0
-7.8
-4.2
1.2
5.2
6.6
7.6
6.9
7.0
6.3
HU
0.6
1.3
-1.7
-4.8
-0.6
-8.3
-11.3
-7.1
-9.6
-3.3
0.1
-1.6
-2.2
-1.5
IE
-5.2
-8.0
-12.4
-16.6
-19.6
-20.5
-18.6
-15.1
-12.4
-11.1
-10.5
-11.9
-12.9
-14.3
NL
2.9
2.5
1.4
-1.3
-3.6
-5.4
-5.5
-3.8
-1.3
-0.7
-0.8
-1.0
-1.8
-2.9
0.9
4.9
5.6
4.2
0.2
0.7
-0.9
PL
10.3
8.4
9.3
6.7
0.6
-1.8
-2.0
PT
4.0
4.8
4.7
2.7
0.4
-0.8
-0.6
1.3
1.6
2.8
1.6
0.6
0.3
-0.8
RO
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
-7.1
-4.1
-6.5
-13.4
-11.9
-12.0
-16.0
SE
4.9
1.8
-2.0
-2.3
0.2
1.4
7.1
10.7
8.9
6.7
5.2
3.4
1.7
0.9
UK
2.7
-3.7
-8.7
-12.4
-12.3
-6.1
0.3
7.7
10.1
7.5
3.9
0.2
-1.6
-1.4
Note: it is worth mentioning that house prices are calculated according to different methodologies at the national level. Further information below: Belgium: Stadim average price of existing dwellings Germany: owner-occupied single family houses, vdp index Denmark: all dwellings; please note that the series has been revised France: INSEE index (second-hand dwellings only) Greece: urban areas house price index (other than Athens) Hungary: FHB house price index (residential properties)
10 | Q3 2011 EMF QUARTERLY REVIEW
Source: European Mortgage Federation
Ireland: new series of House Price Index of the Central Statistics Office Netherlands: CBS (Statistics Netherlands) house price index of single-family dwellings Portugal: Confidencial Imobiliรกrio house price index Spain: new house price index, first released by the Ministry of Housing on Q1 2005 Sweden: index of prices of one-dwelling and two-dwelling buildings UK: Department of Communities and Local Government Index (all dwellings)
Q32011
EMF Quarterly Review Table 5A
Representative Mortgage Rates (%)
II 2008
III 2008
IV 2008
I 2009
II 2009
III 2009
IV 2009
I 2010
II 2010
III 2010
IV 2010
I 2011
II 2011
III 2011
BE
4.85
5.26
4.99
4.52
4.49
4.62
4.43
4.32
4.03
3.90
3.82
3.98
4.12
3.93
DK
5.36
5.03
4.64
3.17
2.31
1.64
1.74
1.25
1.10
1.36
1.40
1.60
1.71
1.03
DE
5.06
5.17
4.83
4.40
4.39
4.37
4.29
4.09
3.89
3.65
3.70
4.10
4.19
3.80
GR
5.40
4.18
3.54
4.18
3.54
3.24
3.12
3.11
3.31
3.58
3.68
3.96
4.25
4.49
FR
4.70
5.00
5.20
4.80
4.40
4.40
4.70
4.40
4.40
3.90
3.70
3.70
3.90
4.00
ES
5.39
5.93
5.89
4.22
3.14
2.78
2.52
2.44
2.33
2.44
2.54
2.84
3.20
3.41
IE
5.15
5.54
4.91
3.64
2.92
2.82
2.79
2.90
3.19
3.23
3.23
3.49
3.44
3.58
IT
5.54
5.52
4.91
3.66
2.85
2.33
2.24
2.22
2.24
2.39
2.52
2.61
2.85
3.14
HU
11.45
11.71
13.34
13.22
14.16
13.56
11.65
10.63
9.79
9.24
9.44
10.10
10.37
10.48
NL
5.50
5.70
5.71
4.21
3.63
3.87
3.88
3.78
3.65
3.62
3.55
3.67
3.88
4.04
PL
7.80
8.40
8.70
7.30
7.20
7.30
7.10
6.80
6.70
6.30
6.10
6.40
6.60
6.80
PT
5.42
5.69
5.50
3.02
2.54
2.29
2.22
2.20
2.25
2.65
2.96
3.18
3.74
4.16
RO
5.93
5.90
6.76
7.74
7.68
5.05
4.97
4.76
4.86
5.80
5.18
5.35
5.96
5.66
SE
5.34
6.07
3.64
2.16
1.94
1.60
1.44
1.41
1.71
2.23
2.78
3.48
3.65
3.90
UK
6.31
6.13
5.23
4.23
4.15
4.44
4.16
3.92
3.76
3.77
3.57
3.69
3.51
3.02
Short-term initial fixed period rate, from 1 to 5 years maturity (%) II 2008
III 2008
IV 2008
DE
5.24
5.50
4.84
GR
4.95
4.66
ES
5.74
6.18
I 2009
II 2009
III 2009
IV 2009
I 2010
II 2010
III 2010
IV 2010
I 2011
II 2011
III 2011
4.12
3.88
3.81
3.76
3.56
3.36
3.25
3.31
3.70
3.82
3.52
5.27
5.44
5.03
4.67
4.65
4.69
4.74
4.27
3.96
3.69
3.99
4.28
6.06
4.71
3.94
3.46
3.19
3.04
2.78
2.83
2.95
3.28
3.67
3.99
IE
5.34
5.72
4.80
4.14
3.65
3.63
3.57
3.51
3.89
4.13
4.17
4.23
4.49
4.86
HU
13.10
13.43
14.25
15.49
15.52
14.17
12.98
12.58
12.11
11.47
11.18
11.33
12.00
10.45
IT
5.65
5.93
4.98
4.14
4.00
3.61
3.35
3.12
2.82
3.14
3.48
3.81
3.95
3.58
NL
5.07
5.41
5.51
5.44
5.35
5.41
5.28
5.19
4.94
4.73
4.57
4.71
5.07
5.09
SE
5.94
5.97
4.22
3.41
3.49
3.14
3.08
3.25
3.18
3.26
3.74
4.35
4.30
3.66
Variable rate and initial fixed period rate up to 1 year (%) II 2008
III 2008
IV 2008
II 2009
III 2009
IV 2009
I 2010
II 2010
III 2010
IV 2010
I 2011
II 2011
III 2011
BE
5.58
5.98
4.87
I 2009 3.74
3.21
2.97
2.92
2.91
2.82
2.87
3.12
3.34
3.64
3.77
DE
6.05
6.24
5.38
4.19
3.73
3.38
3.36
3.04
3.19
3.28
3.38
3.49
3.78
3.77
GR
5.40
4.18
3.54
4.18
3.54
3.24
3.12
3.11
3.31
3.58
3.68
3.96
4.25
4.49
ES
5.39
5.93
5.89
4.22
3.14
2.78
2.52
2.44
2.33
2.44
2.54
2.84
3.20
3.41
IE
5.23
5.58
4.33
3.23
2.68
2.62
2.61
2.77
2.83
2.96
3.01
3.09
3.18
3.50
HU
11.45
11.71
13.34
13.22
14.16
13.56
11.65
10.63
9.79
9.24
9.44
10.10
10.37
10.48
IT
5.54
5.52
4.91
3.66
2.85
2.33
2.24
2.22
2.24
2.39
2.52
2.61
2.85
3.14
NL
5.50
5.70
5.71
4.21
3.63
3.87
3.88
3.78
3.65
3.62
3.55
3.67
3.88
4.04
RO
5.93
5.90
6.76
7.74
7.68
5.05
4.97
4.76
4.86
5.80
5.18
5.35
5.96
5.66
SE
5.34
6.07
3.64
2.16
1.94
1.60
1.44
1.41
1.71
2.23
2.78
3.48
3.65
3.90
Note: UK series has been revised
Source: European Mortgage Federation
EMF QUARTERLY REVIEW Q3 2011 |
11
Q32011 Table 5B
EMF Quarterly Review
Mortgage Interest Rates
Long-term initial fixed period rate, 10-year or more maturity (%) II 2008
III 2008
IV 2008
II 2009
III 2009
IV 2009
I 2010
II 2010
III 2010
IV 2010
I 2011
II 2011
III 2011
BE
4.85
5.26
4.99
I 2009 4.52
4.49
4.62
4.43
4.32
4.03
3.90
3.82
3.98
4.12
3.93
DK
7.12
7.10
6.58
5.84
5.48
5.21
5.19
4.68
4.35
4.20
4.70
5.10
5.12
4.27
DE
5.09
5.21
4.73
4.49
4.53
4.45
4.38
4.30
3.90
3.64
3.77
4.26
4.32
3.80
GR
4.77
4.96
4.87
4.79
4.72
4.76
4.65
4.66
4.35
4.61
1.56
n/a
n/a
n/a
IT
5.99
5.93
5.21
5.01
5.18
5.02
4.92
4.74
4.42
4.09
4.30
4.74
4.82
4.64
NL
5.26
5.46
5.60
5.46
5.37
5.31
5.25
5.22
5.17
5.01
4.88
4.93
5.17
5.18
RO
5.90
n/a
n/a
10.69
10.59
8.57
6.92
5.39
4.87
4.89
5.06
5.06
5.74
5.81
4.09
3.89
3.65
3.70
4.10
4.19
3.80
Medium-term initial fixed period rate, from 5 to 10 years maturity (%) DE
5.06
5.17
4.83
4.40
4.39
4.37
4.29
GR
4.95
5.16
5.79
5.61
4.75
4.67
4.34
3.66
4.25
4.88
5.39
5.51
5.55
5.54
HU
18.60
21.43
21.33
22.61
20.99
20.35
16.87
19.38
21.48
17.66
15.64
12.65
9.89
n/a
IT
5.77
5.76
5.08
4.53
4.38
4.24
4.05
4.07
3.97
3.66
4.01
4.34
4.36
4.08
ES
7.69
8.09
7.93
7.62
7.53
7.68
7.41
7.71
7.64
8.00
6.97
6.62
7.22
8.06
NL
5.26
5.46
5.60
5.46
5.37
5.31
5.25
5.22
5.17
5.01
4.88
4.93
5.17
5.18
SE
5.91
5.83
4.87
4.84
5.26
4.21
4.55
4.78
4.22
4.05
4.83
5.20
5.01
4.42
Source: European Mortgage Federation
12 | Q3 2011 EMF QUARTERLY REVIEW
Q32011
EMF Quarterly Review Table 5C
Mortgage Markets’ Breakdown by Interest Rate Type (%) - Outstanding Loans III 2008
IV 2008
I 2009
II 2009
III 2009 IV 2009
I 2010
II 2010
fixed
n/a
43.5
41.9
38.7
36.2
variable rate with interest rate cap
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
variable
n/a
56.5
58.1
HUF denominated
44.8
39.4
EUR denominated
0.9
CHF denominated Other FX denominated
III 2010 IV 2010
I 2011
II 2011
III 2011
34.0
31.0
30.0
29.0
28.5
28.1
28.6
28.3
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
11.1
11.0
61.3
63.8
66.0
69.0
70.0
71.0
71.5
71.9
60.3
60.7
35.6
38.4
38.2
37.6
37.0
34.0
35.5
34.7
37.0
36.1
34.5
1.4
2.5
3.4
4.4
5.3
5.8
6.0
6.1
5.9
5.9
5.7
6.0
52.9
57.5
59.7
56.0
55.3
54.9
54.6
57.0
55.2
55.8
53.3
55.9
55.0
1.4
1.7
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.5
3.0
3.2
3.6
3.7
2.4
4.6
fixed 1-3 years
13.9
11.6
9.0
7.9
7.1
6.3
6.3
7.1
6.8
7.3
7.9
7.7
7.3
fixed 3-5 years
6.1
fixed >5 years
2.3
6.0
5.6
5.3
5.4
5.2
5.2
5.8
6.1
4.9
5.1
4.9
4.6
2.4
2.9
2.7
2.3
2.2
2.8
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.2
variable and initial fixed up to 1 year
77.8
80.0
82.5
84.1
85.2
86.3
85.7
85.6
85.7
86.5
84.3
84.1
84.3
initial fixed >1 years
55.8
54.7
52.1
48.9
46.1
42.7
41.6
40.8
41.7
44.3
47.8
49.6
50.8
variable and fixed up to 1 year
44.2
45.3
47.9
51.1
53.9
57.3
58.4
59.2
58.3
55.7
52.2
50.4
49.2
initial fixed
50.8
48.1
44.4
42.5
40.1
37.6
35.6
33.8
32.4
31.5
30.7
29.6
28.6
variable
49.2
51.9
55.6
57.5
59.9
62.4
64.4
66.2
67.6
68.5
69.3
70.4
71.4
Denmark
Hungary
Ireland
Sweden
UK
Note: Swedish series has been revised Source: European Mortgage Federation Hungarian series has been revised. Please note that only housing loans are included (not home equity loans) For Ireland, the variable rate and initial fixed up to 1 year segment includes tracker mortgages, which account for 53.5% of all on-balance sheet loans for house purchase (at end-March 2011). A tracker mortgage is fixed at a margin (e.g. +1%) to a benchmark rate, normally the ECB main refinancing rate, resulting in immediate passthrough of ECB interest rate rises or cuts. *Please note that this is a fixed rate; however, the rate can float until a threshold
EMF QUARTERLY REVIEW Q3 2011 |
13
Q32011 Table 5D
EMF Quarterly Review
Mortgage Markets’ Breakdown by Interest Rate Type (%) - New Loans III 2008
IV 2008
I 2009
II 2009
III 2009 IV 2009
I 2010
II 2010
82.5
82.7
70.3
52.3
38.3
15.0
13.6
16.1
21.3
2.4
3.7
13.6
43.9
27.0
n/a
III 2010 IV 2010
I 2011
II 2011
III 2011
32.8
28.8
40.7
51.8
71.7
75.5
75.1
70.8
20.5
19.7
19.7
19.3
18.7
15.8
11.8
14.3
11.9
26.4
41.2
47.6
51.5
39.9
29.5
12.5
12.7
10.7
17.4
17.0
8.0
16.1
15.2
12.0
20.0
47.8
38.1
25.9
31.2
31.0
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
6.8
5.6
56.1
73.0
83.0
92.0
83.9
84.8
88.0
79.9
52.2
61.9
74.1
62.1
63.4
15.0
17.0
20.0
19.0
18.0
18.0
17.0
16.0
15.0
15.0
16.0
15.0
15.0
39.0
38.0
38.0
41.0
41.0
40.0
38.0
37.0
38.0
39.0
39.0
39.0
38.0
31.0
29.0
25.0
24.0
24.0
25.0
26.0
30.0
32.0
32.0
28.0
30.0
31.0
15.0
16.0
17.0
16.0
17.0
17.0
19.0
17.0
15.0
14.0
17.0
16.0
16.0
1.5 8.2 90.3
1.3 8.1 90.6
1.0 11.7 87.4
0.8 9.4 89.8
1.0 10.3 88.7
0.8 9.5 89.7
0.9 12.3 86.8
1.2 11.6 87.2
1.1 14.3 84.6
1.2 14.2 84.5
1.8 18.6 79.6
0.6 18.7 80.7
0.5 16.3 83.2
n/a
21.9
n/a
34.5
n/a
66.5
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
75.4
n/a
64.2
n/a
32.5
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
78.2
90.6
88.4
61.0
83.7
83.9
67.7
75.8
75.2
76.8
67.7
85.8
87.8
21.8
9.4
11.6
39.0
16.3
16.1
32.3
24.2
24.8
23.2
32.3
14.2
12.2
4.4
5.8
9.9
15.4
14.9
13.5
25.0
65.4
81.1
84.6
81.1
75.2
69.3
5.4
8.1
12.2
23.8
22.3
8.3
5.6
7.2
9.8
8.8
9.2
11.6
11.4
1.4
1.4
2.7
2.3
2.3
1.8
2.3
3.0
3.8
3.3
5.3
9.1
13.0
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.5
1.3
3.9
0.3
10.6
46.6
44.2
47.3
58.9
49.7
21.0
4.6
1.2
1.4
0.5
0.2
88.4
74.0
28.2
13.9
12.8
17.0
17.0
3.1
0.5
1.6
2.5
2.2
2.1
Belgium fixed interest rate initial fixed rate variable rate (= initial fix <= 1 year) Denmark* fixed variable rate with interest rate cap variable Germany initial fixed 1-5 years initial fixed 5-10 years initial fixed >10 years variable and initial fixed up to 1 year Spain fixed initial fixed variable Italy variable fixed to maturity Ireland variable and initial fixed up to 1 year initial fix >1 year Hungary variable or initial fix up to 1 year (HUF denom) initial fix >1 = 5 years (HUF denom) initial fix > 5 = 10 years (HUF denom) initial fix > 10 years (HUF denom) variable or initial fix up to 1 year (EUR denom) variable or initial fix 1 year (CHF denom)
14 | Q3 2011 EMF QUARTERLY REVIEW
Q32011
EMF Quarterly Review III 2008 Poland fixed
IV 2008
I 2009
II 2009
III 2009 IV 2009
I 2010
II 2010
III 2010 IV 2010
I 2011
II 2011
III 2011
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
100.0
n/a
n/a
n/a
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
variable Portugal fixed
5.2
6.6
4.7
1.6
0.9
0.7
0.7
0.6
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.9
1.5
variable
94.8
93.4
95.3
98.4
99.1
99.3
99.3
99.4
99.0
99.1
99.2
99.1
98.5
Romania fixed
0.9
0.9
9.3
4.6
1.1
1.0
1.6
3.0
7.4
2.7
4.3
2.0
2.2
initial fixed
55.5
71.8
39.1
12.3
38.9
19.9
19.7
17.9
16.8
14.8
17.6
14.9
21.0
variable Sweden variable and initial fix for <= 1 year
43.6
27.3
51.6
83.1
60.0
79.0
78.7
79.1
75.8
82.5
78.1
83.1
76.9
68.9
77.2
85.3
83.3
84.9
83.5
77.7
73.9
63.9
60.1
52.6
55.0
54.4
24.6
19.5
11.4
13.5
12.6
13.9
18.0
20.1
26.0
32.4
42.6
40.6
39.5
initial fixed >1<=5 years initial fixed >5 years UK initial fixed
6.4
3.2
3.2
3.1
2.6
2.7
4.3
6.0
10.1
7.5
4.7
4.4
6.1
60.1
53.6
57.1
74.2
76.4
59.0
46.0
46.2
51.1
52.0
59.9
62.9
60.0
variable
39.7
46.1
42.6
25.6
23.3
40.9
53.7
53.8
48.8
47.9
40.1
37.0
39.8
Notes:
Source: European Mortgage Federation
In Denmark the majority of loans are initial fixed with maturities between 1 and 5 years, and are defined as “variable rate loans”. However in this context “initial fixed rate” is more appropriate. Hungarian and UK series have been revised. According to the definition from the Central Bank of Portugal, new loans with initial fixed rate include floating rate loans. Please note that in Hungary foreign-denominated mortgage lending was suspended in 2010. The values above 0 in EUR and CHF lending are the result of restructuring and remortgaging
EMF QUARTERLY REVIEW Q3 2011 |
15
Q32011 Table 5E
EMF Quarterly Review
Description of Rates
The representative mortgage interest rates are an average of, or specific mortgage rates for, 1st ranking mortgages, involving no prior savings, with no discounts included, gross of tax relief, net of other bank costs. Other specifications are given below: BE
Long term initial fixed period rate, 10 years or more maturity.
DK
Adjustable mortgage rate (variable and initial fixed up to 2 years)
DE
Renegotiable rate with a fixed period of 5 to 10 years.
EE
It is the weighted average of the annual interest rate on new EUR denominated housing loans granted to individuals.
GR
Reviewable rate after a fixed term of 1 year.
ES
Variable rate - Effective average interest rate not including costs. The interest rate usually floats every 6 or 12 months, according to an official reference rate for mortgage loans secured on residential property (non-subsidized housing). This shoud be the same rate as used in the Hypostat and should relate to broadly the same product over time.
FR
Fixed rate - The rate is fixed for the total maturity of the loan. The rate communicated is the fixed average rate of secured loans “PAS” with a maturity between 12 and 15 years.
IE
This is based on the weighted average of the annual interest rate on all new EUR-denominated housing loans granted to households in the period.
IT
Until the 3rd quarter of 2006, the fixed rate was used. From the 4th quarter of 2006 onwards, the variable interest rate on a loan of EUR 100,000 with a maturity of 20 years has been used.
LV
Variable rate (≤1).The average interest rate on new EUR denominated loans.
LT
Variable rate (≤1).The average interest rate on new EUR denominated loans.
HU
Variable interest rate on HUF housing loans. All interest rates are average APR for housing loans at the end of the period (home equity interest rates are not included). Since Spring 2010, foreign-denominated mortgage lending has been suspended by the government.
PL
The indicator is a weighted average of variable mortgage rates denominated in PLN for all residential credits on outstanding amounts.
PT
Variable interest rate up to 1 year indexed to Euribor (≤1).
SE
Variable interest rate up to 1 year (≤1).
UK
The average mortgage rate charged on all regulated mortgage contracts except lifetime mortgages newly advanced in the period (Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders, Regulated Mortgage Survey).
16 | Q3 2011 EMF QUARTERLY REVIEW
Q32011
EMF Quarterly Review Table 6
Macroeconomic Indicators Real GDP*
Unemployment rate**
Latest quarter-on Previous quarter-onquarter growth rate (%), quarter growth rate (%), Q3 11 Q2 11
Q3 2011 (%)
Q2 2011 (%)
HICP inflation Q3 2011 (%)
Policy interest rate
Q2 2011 (%)
Q3 2011 (%)
Q2 2011 (%)
BE
-0.1
0.4
7.4
7.1
3.4
3.4
1.50
1.25
DK
-0.5
1.0
7.5
7.5
2.4
2.9
1.25
1.00
DE
0.5
0.3
5.8
6.0
2.9
2.4
1.50
1.25
FR
0.3
-0.1
9.6
9.6
2.4
2.3
1.50
1.25
GR
n/a
n/a
18.4
16.7
2.9
3.1
1.50
1.25
HU
0.5
0.2
10.9
10.9
3.7
3.5
6.00
6.00
IE
-1.9
1.4
14.7
14.3
1.3
1.1
1.50
1.25
IT
-0.2
0.3
8.1
8.1
3.6
3.0
1.50
1.25
NL
-0.2
0.2
4.4
4.2
3.0
2.5
1.50
1.25
PL
1.0
1.2
9.7
9.6
3.5
3.7
4.50
4.50
PT
-0.6
-0.2
12.7
12.6
3.5
3.3
1.50
1.25
RO
1.8
0.9
7.5
7.4
3.5
8.0
6.25
6.25
ES
0.0
0.2
22.1
21.0
3.0
3.0
1.50
1.25
SE
1.6
1.0
7.3
7.5
1.5
1.5
2.00
1.75
UK
0.6
0.0
8.3
7.9
5.2
4.2
0.50
0.50
euro area
0.3
0.2
10.2
10.0
3.0
2.7
1.50
1.25
EU27
0.2
0.2
9.7
9.5
3.3
3.1
n/a
n/a
Note:
Sources: Eurostat, ECB, Central Banks
* GDP at constant prices, seasonally-adjusted **EU-harmonised unemployment rate, seasonally-adjusted
EMF QUARTERLY REVIEW Q3 2011 |
17
EMF 2011 EMF
Quarterly Statistics
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