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weekend | E x p r e s s | X X . X X . 2 0 0 9
X X.X X.2009 | Express |
lookout entertainment
animated short
entertainment lookout Sound Editing
Nation Of Origin
CATEGORIES
Japan: +2 other non-U.S.: +1
Language Branch
Makeup
Good-versus-evil movies are sure bets. The presence of handto-hand combat breaks the tie. That means “Inception” will win, based on both its plot and the intimacy of the fighting.
Fantasy usually takes this category — with one exception that should play out Sunday. Movies that feature aging defeat fantasies IF the latter are critically panned. So, “Barney’s Version,” in which Paul Giamatti’s character goes from his 20s to his 60s, will defeat “The Wolfman.”
Visual Effects
live-action short documentary short
non-U.S.
+1
0
documentary
0
foreign language film
European or Japan: +1 Israel: -1
Winning Formulas
Germanic or no speech: +1 Germanic
+1
non-English with no English narration: -1
0 Germanic or Romance: +1
Holly j. morris and kristen page-kirby (E xpress)
A fantasy film will carry the day. Within fantasies, victory nearly always requires an epic battle scene, and the only film with one of those this year is “Alice in Wonderland.” So, congratulate the Red Queen, because she’s taking home a statue.
Setting
Europe: +2 other non-U.S.: +1 Europe
+2
Iraq
-1 Iraq
Plot-Critical Non-Human
-1 0
-1
0
0
+2 0
Stochastic process. Technical
analysis. Quantum mechanical. Soft rule-based. Total nonsense. These are terms that might describe what you see here. If we were sure, we would be stock-market billionaires, not journalists. Let’s call it “a set of algorithms that, based on data from the past 10 years, will accurately predict which films will win the Academy Award categories for which you’d normally just guess blindly.” For everything else, check off “The King’s Speech.” That’s what the Academy voters did!
weekend | 3
-1 0
Cynicism
Low
+1 High
+1
Score each nominee by adding up the points in its category’s row. The film with the highest number will win. No need to see the movies: All the data you need are easily findable online.
Art Direction
This tends to go to fantasies, particularly if there’s no musical in the running. That means four fantasies duking it out for 2010. Historically, the tiebreaker seems to be the presence of a foreign language (real or imagined). Thanks to Parseltongue, the language of snakes, “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1” will triumph.
Indicators include misty eyes, nose-blowing, throat-clearing, minor eye leakage. See Autowin box for Class 1.
Big Name Actor or Director
Class 2 Tearjerker
+1
Medical Issues Poverty
0
+1
0
High
+1 +1
Were you to randomly select the winners of the five categories predicted by the chart, you’d be right at least once in the next 3,125 years. If the chart is meaningless, it will match the winners once every 89,253,125 years!
0
0
+1
0
0
+1
+1
0 -1
0 Sick Kid/Teen
+1
Sick Kid/Teen
+1
0 Dead or Dying Parent
+1
WINNERS! The Lost Thing A boy searches for a safe place to store a lost, bell-wearing, steampunk-alien-dog-octopus hybrid in a world that only values conformity. Three points: +1 for nation of origin (Australia); +1 for Germanic language (English); +1 for non-U.S. setting (Australia); -1 for plot-critical non-human; +1 for being a Class 2 tearjerker.
Oppressed Group
Big Name Studio
Wish 143
Violence
0
+1
0
0
0
A cancer-stricken teenager wants to lose his virginity before dying, much to the chagrin of a Make a Wish-esque foundation, who’d rather send him to either Disney World or a soccer match. Five points: +1 for nation of origin (U.K.); +1 for Germanic language (English); +2 for European setting (U.K.); +1 sick teen.
0
0
+1
+1
0
0
+1
+1
War-Related
0
Plot-Critical Kids/Teens
Low
Moderate
How It Works
Period pieces (particularly those set before WWII) dominate. To resolve a periodversus-period stand-off, pick the film that has royalty. If there are two royalty-centric movies, go with whichever one features Brits. “The King’s Speech” should thus win, since the royals in “The Tempest” are technically of Italian birth.
This is the wild card category, with almost no predictability. As no musical is in contention, we conjecture the Oscar will go to a good versus evil film, preferably one that celebrates a lone-wolf killing machine of some kind. So we’re calling it for “Salt,” though we don’t really believe it will win.
Look for the word “redemption” in summaries and reviews. This is a strong sign of moderate cynicism.
Plot-Critical Death
-1
Costume Design
Sound Mixing
+1 If Mistreated
-1
-1
-1
-1
War-Related
-1
Autowin! These attributes lock down any award, no questions asked. The Holocaust: Includes films in which characters escape beforehand. Merely being set in World War II does not invoke. X-Factor: Invoke if the answer to “was the creator high when he or she had this idea?” is “yes.” Rare. Do not invoke casually! Class 1 Tearjerker: Must be of “E.T.” or “Toy Story 3” caliber.
Strangers No More Refugee children from all over the world come together at a special Tel Aviv school, where they find stability for the first time. Don’t even try to compete with happy kids kicking adversity’s ass. Four points: +1 for low cynicism; +1 for poverty; +1 for plot-critical children; +1 for oppressed group.
Exit Through the Gift Shop A meta-heavy look at art, filmmaking and graffiti artist Banksy, who hijacks someone else’s documentary midstream. Or does he? Was it planned all along? And what does it all mean, man, and what if what I see as red you see as blue? All the strange means we invoke Autowin for the weirdo wearing the monkey mask.
Biutiful Dad’s kind of a crook, but he loves his kids. And he has terminal cancer. Four points: +1 for European nation of origin (Spain); +1 for Romance language (Spanish); +1 for moderate cynicism; +1 for dead or dying parent; -1 for plotcritical children; +1 for big name actor (Javier Bardem).