Northern serengeti road ecology utdrag

Science-Policy Science-Policy Platform Platform on on Biodiversity Biodiversity and and Ecosystem Ecosystem Services Services(IPBES) (IPBES)therefore thereforepresented presentedaacomprehensive comprehensivestudy study ofofsubsequent subsequentconsequences consequencesofofthe theconstruction constructionofofsuch suchaaroad road with withconcern concerntotobiodiversity, biodiversity,human humanand andanimal animalhealth, health,asaswell well asasthe thesocial socialstructures structuresofofthe thecommunities communitiesliving livingclose closetotothe the planned plannedroad. road.InInthis thisbook bookwe wediscuss discussmost mostofofthe theconsequences consequences this this upgraded upgraded road road will will have have on on human human social social life life and and the the environment. environment.

EDITORS EDITORS Robert RobertD. D.Fyumagwa, Fyumagwa,Iddi IddiM. M.Mfunda, Mfunda,Janemary JanemaryNtalwila Ntalwila&&Eivin EivinRøskaft Røskaft Photos Photosby byPer PerHarald HaraldOlsen Olsen

Road Ecology

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Northern Serengeti

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Northern Serengeti

Road Ecology

EDITORS EDITORS Robert RobertD. D.Fyumagwa, Fyumagwa,Iddi IddiM. M.Mfunda, Mfunda,Janemary JanemaryNtalwila Ntalwila&&Eivin EivinRøskaft Røskaft Photos Photosby byPer PerHarald HaraldOlsen Olsen

Northern Serengeti

Road Ecology

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Northern Serengeti

Road Ecology EDITORS Robert D. Fyumagwa, Iddi M. Mfunda, Janemary Ntalwila & Eivin Røskaft Photos by Per Harald Olsen

Memorandum During the writing of this book, we lost a good collaborator and friend, Emmanuel Joshua Gereta. He was close to 70 years old when he passed away at Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Saalam on January 8, 2014.

Dr. Gereta was an ecologist at Tanzania National Parks when I first met him in 1994.

Gereta was an enthusiastic ecologist strongly engaged in the conservation of all of the national parks in Tanzania; he also visited sister parks on many continents (America, Australia and Europe) to determine how to best conserve the Tanzanian parks. As a park ecologist, Gereta collected data on rain and water quality in the Serengeti Ecosystem. This work and data collection ended in a PhD dissertation titled, “The importance of water quality and quantity in the tropical ecosystems, Tanzania”, which he defended at NTNU in August 2004. Dr. Gereta was the first to defend a PhD under an umbrella between the NTNU and Tanzania conservation institutions.

To date, more than 10 Tanzania PhDs have been defended at NTNU. We all remember the work of Dr. Gereta and his good laugh during scientific discussions both in Tanzania and Norway. This book is written in his memory and is dedicated to him.

Eivin Røskaft

Eivin Røskaft and Emmanuel Gereta in the Serengeti Research Centre.

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Contents Preface Tanzanian map

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CHAPTER ONE The Serengeti Ecosystem

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CHAPTER TWO Improvement of the Northern Serengeti Road and the Emerging Debate

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Decision to Upgrade the Northern Serengeti Road Opponents of the Road Proponents of the Road Conclusions and the Way Forward

51 52 59 60

Serengeti Ecosystem Indigenous People Biodiversity Human Population Growth Climate Change Serengeti and Climate Change Human Population and Land use Change The Impact of Upland Deforestation The Impact of Improving the Northern Serengeti Road Large Mammals Wildebeest Migration African Wild dog Impala Birds and Small Mammals Humans and Livestock Tourism Environment

Background

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24 26 31 31 34 35 35 36 37 40 41 41 44 44 45 45 45

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CHAPTER THREE Travelling along the Road

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CHAPTER FOUR Transport System

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Agricultural Landscape of Segment 1 The agricultural partly urbanised landscape in Segment 2 Serengeti National Park Segment 3 Woodlands of Segment 4 Low Productive Landscape of Segment 5

Road Network Visitors Roads Impact of Road Traffic Air Transport Upgraded Transport Infrastructure Traffic Forecast Traffic Impacts Road Kill Air Pollution The Way Forward

CHAPTER FIVE Outlook for the Northern Serengeti Road Road Ecology Habitat and Land-use Change Barrier and Edge Effects Dust Pollution Greenhouse-Gas Emission Land and Water Pollution Physical Disturbances Noise Pollution Secondary Impacts Animal Mortality Waste Littering The Way Forward

66 68 70 75 77

87 87 92 93 97 98 100 100 101 101 101

104 109 109

110 112 117 117 117 118 121 121 122 122

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CHAPTER SIX Physical and Chemical Environment

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CHAPTER SEVEN Land-use Patterns

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Environment Topography and Geology Soils Hydrology - Drainage Systems Physico-chemical Properties of Water Bodies - The Ngorongoro Road Segment - The Serengeti Road Segment The Way Forward

Land-use Patterns

Current Land-use Land-use Changes Anticipated Drivers of Change Land-use Conflicts and Management Land-use Conflicts in the Northern Serengeti Mitigation of Land-use Conflicts Implementation of Land-use Plans Emphasis on Non-farm Activities Family Planning Initiatives Destocking Implications of the Land Market The Way Forward

CHAPTER EIGHT Human Populations and Livelihoods Community Development The Survey and the Study Areas About the Households Cultivation and other Sources of Income The Way Forward

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131 131 131 133 133 136 136 137 141

147 147 149 153 157 158 158 158 158 158 162 162 162

164 168 170 172 178 183

CHAPTER NINE Human-Wildlife Interactions

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CHAPTER TEN Perceptions of Stakeholders

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CHAPTER ELEVEN Human Disease Prevalence

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Humans and Wildlife History of Human-wildlife Interaction Pre-colonial Era Colonial Era Post-colonial Era The Negative Dimension Crop Raiding and Damage Livestock Depredation Bushmeat Utilization Wildlife-caused Accidents The Positive Dimension Future The Way Forward

Background General Concept of Perception Factors Influencing Perceptions Theories of Social Perception Framing the Issue: Conservation and Livelihood Improvement Conservationists’ Reactions Perceptions of Local Communities Perceptions of Politicians Perceptions of Tourists Conclusion and the Way Forward

Infrastructure Development Roads as Driver of Diseases Transmission Human Health Sexually Transmitted Infections Respiratory Infections - Tuberculosis (TB) - Pneumonia - Diarrhoea/ Dysentery - Foodborne Zoonoses

193 194 201 201 203 206 206 206 207 208 208 210 212

219 221 221 224 224 231 231 233 235 236

243 243 244 245 248 248 249 250 252

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- Anthrax Vector-borne Diseases - Malaria - Sleeping Sickness Non-Communicable Diseases Road Accidents Emerging Diseases Local Knowledge of Disease Dynamics The Way Forward

CHAPTER TWELVE Animal Health Situation

Pathogens Animal Disease Prevalence Common Animal Health Problems

- Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) - Malignant Catarrh Fever (MCF) - Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus (PPRV) - Parasitic Infections - Tick-borne Haemoparasites - Trypanosomosis - Anthrax - Brucellosis - Mass Mortalities of Flamingos (Phoenicopterus minor) - Contagious Pleuropneumonia - Emerging Diseases The Way Forward

CHAPTER THIRTEEN Ethnobotany

Plant Usage in Rural Villages Uncovering Patterns of Reliance on Natural Plants Patterns of Reliance on Plant Products Plants as Food Plants as Medicine Plants as Fuel Plants as Building materials Plants for Grazing The Way Forward - Implications for Villages East and West of Serengeti National Park

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252 256 256 257 258 258 260 260 260

266 271 271 272 272 274 275 276 276 277 279 282 283 286 287 288

292 297 297 298 304 304 305 307 307 307 307

CHAPTER FOURTEEN Distribution of Alien Plant Species

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CHAPTER FIVETEEN Effects of Roads and Traffic on Animal Behaviour and Stress Levels

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Alien Species Alien Plants of Concern Roads as Conduits for Dispersal of Alien Plants The Way Forward

Direct Effects of Roads on Animals Population-level Effects Indirect Effects on Animals Noise Ecological Traps Examples, impala The Way Forward

313 314 322 324

333 333 334 339 340 344 348

CHAPTER SIXTEEN Diversity and Abundance

350

Author Names and Addresses

376

References

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Biodiversity and Anthropogenic Threats Roads as Threats to Biodiversity Current Status of Biodiversity Small mammals and birds Large Mammals The Way Forward Scientific Names

355 355 359 361 366 367 368

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Preface From 2011 to 2012, Norway worked hard to provide international support to host a secretariat in Trondheim for the capacity-building part of IPBES (Intergovernmental Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services) (www.ipbes.net). IPBES acts as an interface between the scientific community and policymakers to build the capacity for and strengthen the use of science in policymaking. UNEP has cooperated with UNESCO, FAO, UNDP and other organisations to fully operationalise the IPBES by 2013. Norway was given responsibility for the capacity-building secretariat that would be based in Trondheim beginning in 2014.

The idea for a project to develop capacity building under IPBES in Tanzania was conceived in February 2011. A proposal for this project was submitted to the Norwegian IPBES Interim Board. The Interim Board supported the first phase of the project in 2011. The overall goal of the project is to strengthen the capacity of Tanzanian institutions to develop good Environmental and Social Impact Assessments (ESIAs) in relation to large infrastructure developments in protected areas. The project used the proposed road that was planned to cross the Serengeti National Park in northern Tanzania as a case study. The initial project plan was to collect data during three different stages and to include a follow up study to test the predictions that were

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developed before the construction. This book is a compilation of results from field data that were collected before road construction (see Chapter 1) and discusses the potential effects that such a road will have on the biodiversity, environment, health and socio-ecology of humans.

In 2010, the Government of Tanzania decided to build a tarmac road across the Serengeti National Park, linking the north-eastern (Arusha and Kilimanjaro) and north-western (Mara and Mwanza) regions of northern Tanzania. However, national, regional, and international environmental activists and conservationists expressed concern over this decision. One of the more serious criticisms of the plan has been the poor quality of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) that was used in the decisionmaking process, as well as the process leading up to the final recommendations. The decision, if implemented (see Chapter 2), would, according to the criticism, destroy the Serengeti Ecosystem, representing crucial dispersal zones for migrating herds of ungulates and important sources of natural resources for local communities.

The overall goal of this project was therefore to increase the capacity of Tanzanian institutions to develop good Environmental and Social Impact Assessments in relation to road constructions, as well as to develop a follow-up study after a road has been constructed to test the predictions that were developed before the construction. The overall goal has therefore been two-fold: 1) to develop the capacity of the Tanzania Wildlife Research Institute

(TAWIRI) to develop a long-term project in order to follow the road construction of a sensitive tarmac road before (planning), during (impact) and after construction (consequences) and 2) to execute a highstandard baseline study before the commencement of the construction work. The capacity that is built during such a pilot study should be valuable for future development projects and processes in Tanzania, as well as the rest of Africa.

The overall purpose of conducting a baseline study along the proposed tarmac road is to determine the status and trends of the natural and human resources, as well as the biodiversity, in this section of the Serengeti Ecosystem – as a barrier – in terms of species composition, as well as the distribution and abundance of resources in order to establish a benchmark in the conservation of the ecosystem.

The results of these studies are reported in different chapters of this book. Our main purpose is to allow the decision-making body of Tanzania make a better informed decision for the benefit of the ecosystem and the adjacent communities that depend on the services that the ecosystem provides for their livelihoods.

Our intention is that such a study will create an understanding of the dynamics of the Northern Serengeti Road to the socio-economic and ecological trade-offs of the Serengeti Ecosystem, governance challenges, and other influencing factors. As a monitoring and evaluation tool, this book reports results from this project, aiming to improve the capacity to monitor the effects of management actions: ecosystem monitoring, decision making

and effectiveness by the Government and institutions that are responsible for natural-resource management.

The aim of this project is to develop a complete interdisciplinary study with four disciplines: 1) Biodiversity (vegetation and animals), 2) Human and animal health, 3) Environmental science (environment, soil science, eco-hydrology, hydrology, and water quality and quantity), and 4) Socio-ecology (human-wildlife interactions, naturalresource management, livestock-wildlife interactions, tourism, socioeconomics and livelihood).

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) identified fragmentation and loss of habitat as the main drivers of change in biodiversity and ecosystems, with infrastructure development and increased human activity associated with economic development as the main contributing factors. We anticipate that this project will increase knowledge for decision makers to avoid and mitigate negative impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems while considering human needs in a developing country, as related to infrastructure development.

This study was initiated by the Tanzanian parties and developed in close collaboration between Tanzanians and Norwegians. During the four years of the study, we have employed 20 full- and part-time researchers from Tanzania and 10 from Norway with different responsibilities (planning, water quality, socioeconomics, sociology, vegetation and fauna). In addition, we educated eight (8) Masters’ degree students in Tanzania and Norway and three (3) PhD students in this project.

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The main partners of this project are the Tanzania Wildlife Research Institute (TAWIRI) and the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU). In addition, the following contributing partners were involved: University of Dodoma, Sokoine University of Agriculture, University of Dar es Salaam, Norwegian Institute of Nature Research (NINA), Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU), and the Norwegian Road Directorate. The scientists who were involved in this project co-authored the chapters below.

The data that were used in different chapters of this book were collected from villages and study plots along the Northern Serengeti Road inside the national park and from Ngorongoro and Serengeti Districts outside the park. The Serengeti National Park is buffered by several others protected areas with different management systems.

The starting point of the Northern Serengeti Road is Makutano Junction in Butiama District. On this western side of the park, the 150-km road traverses mainly through rural settings, passing a number of villages. The plan is to tarmac most of the road on the western side, but not from Mugumu to Tabora B Gate. A small portion of the road (Tabora B - Kleins Camp - 54.9 km) will pass through Serengeti National Park and will be managed by Tanzania National Park, having similar standards as those

of other roads inside the park. From Kleins Gate to Wasso Town, a stretch of 50 km in the Loliondo Game Controlled Area will be a gravel road. The length of the road from Wasso Town to Mto-wa-mbu is approximately 250 km and will largely be a tarmac road.

The selected study villages were Maalon, Losoito, Ololosokwan, Oloipiri, Digodigo and Enguserosambu in Ngorongoro District and Mbirikiri, Koreri, Nyiberekera, Maburi, Mosongo and Nyamirama in Serengeti District. The main anthropogenic activities in these areas are livestock husbandry in Ngorongoro District and cultivation in the Serengeti District.

However, some villages practice both cultivation and livestock husbandry. We would like to express our gratitude to the Norwegian Environmental Agency, who granted money through IPBES from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to NTNU and TAWIRI. This four-year grant made this study and book possible. Finally we would like to thank Roger Bjerkan for his excellent work in the layout of this book and to Mimi Stith for improving the English.

Trondheim & Arusha, May 2017 Robert Fyumagwa, Iddi M. Mfunda, Janemary Ntalwila & Eivin Røskaft

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Most of the members of the IPBES team at the Serengeti Wildlife Research Center in January 2014.

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Map of the northern Tanzania with Serengeti National Park and surrounding areas, including main roads.

Map: Ragnvald Larsen

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CHAPTER ONE Robert D. Fyumagwa, Iddi M. Mfunda, Janemary Ntalwila, Craig R. Jackson & Eivin Røskaft

The Serengeti

Ecosystem

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During their annual migration from south to north and back across the Serengeti Ecosystem, wildebeest encounter numerous roads.

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Tourists regularly enjoy close-up sightings of African elephants along the roads in the Serengeti National Park.

Tanzania is second in Africa after Demographic Republic of Congo and among 20 biodiversity hotspot countries worldwide. The number of tourists visiting Tanzania is growing rapidly, as is its human population. Tanzania is a developing country with many challenges, one of which is how to develop a good infrastructure.

The growing human population demands development and a modern, first-world infrastructure.

Tanzania’s unique biodiversity attracts tourists who also want to make use of high-quality infrastructure.

The challenge is therefore how to develop an infrastructure that will satisfy both Tanzania’s own growing population and the increasing number of tourists without having irreversible negative consequences on its biodiversity. The new planned road in northern Tanzania through the Serengeti Ecosystem will have several effects, both positive and negative, and requires careful consideration.

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CHAPTER ONE • The Serengeti Ecosystem

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Serengeti Ecosystem The Serengeti Ecosystem is a cross-border ecosystem and part of the Greater Serengeti-Mara Ecosystem, which is found in northern Tanzania and southern Kenya (Figure 1.1). On the Tanzanian side, the ecosystem covers approximately 30,000 km² with no physical barrier separating the protected areas with different management categories, including multiple forms of land use [1]. The ecosystem is characterised by different geographical and ecological features between the boundaries of the joint river basins of the Mara, Grumeti and Mbalageti rivers.

The ecosystem is one of the largest animal sanctuaries in the world and supports not only large herds of migratory ungulates (wildebeest and zebra) and large predators (lion, hyena, cheetah and African wild dog) but also one of the highest concentrations of birds.

The ecosystem is composed of a network of protected areas; the biggest and by far the most famous area is Serengeti National Park (14,763 km²). The Serengeti National Park and Ngorongoro Conservation Area (8,288 km²) are World Heritage Sites, Biosphere Reserves, and among the eight wonders of Africa. The Ngorongoro Conservation Area is famous due to the Ngorongoro Crater, with the highest densities of large mammals in the world. Other protected areas in the ecosystem are Maswa Game Reserve (2,200 km²), Ikorongo Game Reserve (563 km²), Grumeti Game Reserve (416 km²), Loliondo Game Controlled Area (4,000 km²), two Wildlife Management Areas (Ikona and Makao) and the Masai Mara National Reserve in Kenya (1,368 km²) (see Figure 1.1).

Above: A singing pair of Usambiro barbets, one of Serengeti’s many beautiful bird species.

Below: The spectacular Ngorongoro crater, a World Heritage Site.

Serengeti National Park was established in 1951 and was proclaimed as a World Heritage Site in 1981.

The ecosystem is part of the high interior plateau of East Africa, situated between the shores of Lake

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Victoria to the west, Lake Eyasi to the south, and the Great Rift Valley to the east. Serengeti National Park slopes from its highest point (1850 m) on the eastern plains towards its lowest point at Speke Gulf (920 m) [2]. The climate of the ecosystem is mostly influenced by the Ngorongoro highlands, which create a rain shadow, and the hydrologic cycles of Lake Victoria, which cause temperature fluctuations between the lake and the surrounding areas [3, 4].

The temperature ranges from approximately 14°C at night to approximately 28°C during the day, with a relatively constant annual mean of 21°C. Rainfall is mainly restricted to the wet season from November to May, with peaks occurring in December and April with a total of 400-1200 mm of rain per annum, and typically falls in a bi-modal pattern [4-6]. The short rain season normally occurs towards the end of the year (November- December), and the long rain season normally occurs from March to May [4].

However, the rains can fuse into one long period, particularly in the north, or the short rains can fail entirely, especially in the southeast [2]. The mean annual rainfall varies from 800 mm in the eastern to 1,050 mm in the northern part of the ecosystem [7]. The average relative humidity for Ngorongoro District is approximately 70%, while evaporation and transpiration losses are fairly high due to the high solar radiation. The annual average sunshine is between 8 and 10 hours per day, with an annual average of solar radiation between 5,000 and 7,000 langleys per annum.

The vegetation varies from open short- and long-grass plains in the south, wooded grassland in the north on rolling hills interspaced with rocky outcrops and wooded savannah and woodland in the western corridor, which extends up Lake Victoria to the west, [8]. In the central part, there are mountains

with steep slopes, densely vegetated gullies, and Acacia savannah woodland. The open areas in the lowlands are either cultivated or open woodland, and the southern portion gives way to short grassland [8]. A unique combination of diverse habitats supports more than 30 species of large herbivores and nearly 500 bird species. The ecosystem supports a number of threatened and endangered species, including the African elephant, black rhinoceros, cheetah and the African wild dog [9, 10].

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Figure 1.1 The Serengeti Ecosystem with all protected areas. Main roads in red and the Northern Serengeti Road in yellow.

During the early 20th century, most of the Serengeti Ecosystem was occupied by scattered human populations, mostly hunters and pastoralists.

Recently, the growing human population has had a significant impact on the ecosystem through numerous human activities, such as illegal hunting, infrastructural developments, agriculture, livestock keeping, and pole cutting. Illegal hunting, which is driven by the need to increase food supply, cash income and fulfil cultural and social needs, is commonly practiced in villages adjacent to the western part of the Serengeti National Park, whereas the Maasai pastoralists to the east consume mainly livestock meat [11, 12].

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Indigenous People Different tribes reside within the Serengeti Ecosystem.

The eastern section of the Serengeti Ecosystem (Loliondo Game Controlled Area) is inhabited by the Maasai and Sonjo tribes; the former are nomadic pastoralists, and the latter are sedentary agropastoralists. The south-east (Ngorongoro Conservation Area) is inhabited by Maasai pastoralists, Mang’ati and Hadzabe hunters and gatherers, and south of Ngorongoro Conservation Area is the Iraqw, who are farmers. On the western side there are more than twenty tribes; the dominant tribes are Kurya, Jita, Jaluo, Zanaki and Ikoma. The south-west is dominated by the Sukuma [5, 13]. The eastern side of the ecosystem (Loliondo Game Controlled Area

and Ngorongoro Conservation Area) is the Maasai’s ancestral land and a multiple-land-use area. The human population in this ecosystem is growing rapidly; there are approximately 3 million people with the highest densities in the north to the Kenyan border and in the western part of the Serengeti National Park [14]. A large proportion of the rural population residing in this ecosystem are very poor.

The associated environmental degradation, limited access to important resources, and lack of economic options decrease the per capita income. Therefore, the increased human population is associated with negative effects on sustainable ecosystem services and has few benefits from the world-famous protected areas at their doorstep.

Left: Every year, the Sonjo people are celebrating a successful harvest.

Right: The growing human population in Tanzania demands a better infrastructure, including a good education system.

Below: The wildebeest migration, one of the natural wonders of Africa.

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In the eastern (Loliondo Game Controlled Area) and southern (Ngorongoro Conservation Area) borders of the Serengeti National Park, the famous Maasai people are the main inhabitants, still living in a traditional way.

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Biodiversity Tanzania contains globally important biodiversity hotspots [15] and, together with Brazil, Indonesia and Congo [16], is one of the world’s four megabiodiversity nations. Tanzania has dedicated itself to protecting more than 30% of its surface area, despite its problematic economic situation, current population increase and poverty of many of its citizens. Various types of protected areas are interlinked with neighbouring agro-pastoral and pastoral community lands in a unique way, some of which also support substantial biodiversity. The protected areas include 16 national parks, 24 game reserves, 44 gamecontrolled areas and the Ngorongoro Conservation Area. In addition, Tanzania has three Biosphere Reserves: the Serengeti-Ngorongoro, Lake Manyara and the East Usambara Mountains. The Serengeti National Park, Kilimanjaro National Park, Ngorongoro Conservation Area and Selous Game Reserve are World Heritage Sites. Four protected areas have Ramsar site status (an international treaty conserving wetlands of significant importance); the Malagarasi-Moyovozi, Kilombero Valley Flood Plain, Lake Natron Basin and the Rufiji-Mafia-Kilwa Marine park. Finally, Tanzania contains the three Natural Wonders of Africa; the Serengeti Wildebeest Migration, the Ngorongoro Crater and Mount Kilimanjaro. Tanzania is therefore among the most important countries in the world with respect to biodiversity and natural resources.

Human Population Growth Africa is the world’s second largest continent. This fascinating continent is currently experiencing the fastest human population growth rate of all of the continents. Africa’s population has increased from approximately 200 million people in 1950 to approximately 1 billion people in 2014. The annual population growth rate has been approximately 2% over the last 50 years. The African continent is expected to reach 1.4 billion people in 2025 and approximately 2 billion people in 2050 [17].

Tanzania’s population has grown from approximately 8 million in 1960 to almost 50 million people today.

With an annual growth rate of 3.1%, Tanzania’s population is one of Africa’s fastest growing populations and is projected to reach 70 million in 2025 and 129 million people in 2050 [17]. This rapid population increase, together with the impact of the associated increased consumption of natural

resources, directly threatens the sustainability of the country’s biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Simultaneously, development is important for all African countries, with a particular need for better road networks, clean water, reliable electricity and other important infrastructure. Tanzania thus finds itself in a difficult situation, having to conserve its biodiversity in a sustainable way whilst its human population demands development and improved living conditions.

Therefore, despite the protection of many extensive areas, the present human population growth and intensification of land use practices are increasing threats to many of Tanzania’s unique ecosystems.

The variety and availability of natural resources to humans, livestock and wildlife are therefore presently under stress. As a result of unsustainable utilisation, both biodiversity and human well-being decline. Increasing pressure on the declining remaining natural areas leads to degradation and increased movements and dispersal of wildlife from protected areas to communal lands. Valuable ecosystem services, such as shared grazing opportunities for livestock and migrant wildlife, are now conflicts between humans and wildlife on how to best utilise the limited resources [18]. The existing human population growth and its associated increased

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Above: Most villages in the Serengeti Ecosystem have small shopping centers.

Facing page: Lake Natron, a Ramsar Site, unique breeding site for lesser flamingos.

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anthropogenic impact promote the fragmentation of habitats that progressively prevents the movement of wildlife between protected areas. As a result, we are experiencing changes in species composition, local extinctions of many important animal and plant species, and a consequently dramatic reduction in biodiversity. Paradoxically, a consequence of human population growth and development of infrastructure in a country such as Tanzania might be a dramatic reduction of its beautiful biodiversity.

In developing countries such as Tanzania, the increased pressure on biodiversity and ecosystem services is a consequence of many different causes.

The most important cause is rapid human population growth, which is not expected to level off in the present century [17, 19]. A consequence of this population growth is an increasing demand for natural resources, such as food, space for settlements,

grazing land for livestock, medicinal plants, timber, firewood, water and bush meat (meat from wild animals). This increase in turn leads to the overexploitation of natural resources, such as fish; many wildlife populations for bush meat; and wood, leading to deforestation. The use of land is also changing, and natural areas are being converted into livestock grazing and arable farming. The demand for infrastructure, such as roads, promotes an influx of people and economic activities. Per capita anthropogenic activities are intensifying rapidly due to economic growth, globalisation, and technological innovations, which again trigger deforestation and habitat fragmentation [20]. Furthermore, large infrastructure developments may lead to the intensification of biological resource utilisation through increased hunting, firewood and timber collection, charcoal production, and overgrazing in arid areas.

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Many of the roads in the Serengeti Ecosystem are in poor condition.

Climate Change Human-induced global climate change is currently causing unpredictable and extreme weather conditions in African ecosystems. This stress factor is adding additional pressure to highly vulnerable and threatened ecosystems [21-23]. This stressor comes in addition to human population growth in most African countries, where, despite the importance and need for increased ecosystem services, these services will continue to diminish as human populations increase. A consequence of such changes in ecosystem service provision, which have historically sustained population growth, is that they are now in jeopardy. This danger is explicitly observed in dry-land regions, such as Africa’s savannahs and the Serengeti Ecosystem in northern Tanzania [22, 24-27].

The present human population growth driving the deterioration of East Africa’s ecosystems is most likely interacting with rapid climate change. The fundamental cause of human-induced climate change lies primarily outside Africa and is mostly caused by overconsumption in the richer Western world. Thus, the Western world is accountable for the extreme situation that many countries, such as Tanzania, have been dragged into. The dry lands of Africa, including rangelands and savannahs in northern Tanzania, are experiencing a very strong impact of climate change that will worsen later this century. This climatic change will therefore have major consequences for the livelihoods of people in Africa, Tanzania and Serengeti [22]. In addition to long-term trends in temperature increase, water disproportion and advanced carbon budgets, climate change will increase the regularity of extreme weather events, such as droughts, floods, storms and bushfires. In the Serengeti Ecosystem, the effects of climate change are particularly apparent in the

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increased variability and irregularity of rainfall [28].

This region is therefore presently experiencing a drier wet season and a wetter dry season. Seasonal patterns of rainfall seem to have shifted, with rains occurring earlier in the year.

Extreme droughts cause hunger in human populations with associated deaths in many rural communities.

In addition, such droughts cause starvation, with mass mortality in both domestic animals and wildlife [29]. Droughts force wildlife to move beyond the borders of protected areas in search for forage and water, despite the fact that livestock areas outside of protected areas may be short of resources for wildlife populations during drought.

Wildlife might leave the protected area, and the drought situation will escalate illegal livestock incursions into protected areas [28]. Wildlife and livestock gradually come into close contact during severe weather, increasing the risk of transmitting disease pathogens to susceptible populations [30].

During periods of drought, people, livestock and wildlife frequently concentrate around a few available water points, which provide an additional risk of transmission of infectious diseases.

In addition, wildlife will suffer greater poachingrelated mortality, while livestock may be prone to an increased risk of being depredated by large carnivores. This risk is a source of an increased human-wildlife conflict, where wildlife will experience an extra pressure of mortality. In addition, the reduced water availability and quality [31] during droughts intensify competition for scarce water resources between wildlife, people and livestock [32]. However, heavy rainfall in degraded habitats causes flooding, which leads to the destruction and contamination of drinking water sources [33]. Areas lacking natural vegetation due to overgrazing, firewood collection, charcoal burning,

harvesting materials for anthropogenic constructions and fencing or crop production are prone to soil erosion.

In such situations, valuable top soil is lost, increasing the sediment load to fresh water habitats [34].

Serengeti and Climate Change Climate change has a significant impact on the Serengeti Ecosystem. The temperature and precipitation are increasing in parts of Africa, while precipitation is decreasing in other parts [29, 35].

However, temperature will probably increase in the Serengeti by 2 to 6°C by 2100 [35]. Droughts and floods have become more common, with a significant impact on the livelihoods of poor people [36]. The present-day and future climate warming, in addition to the altered rainfall patterns, land use and cover changes and increasing human population, will have a profound effect on the Serengeti Ecosystem.

The impacts will include a degradation of vegetation quality for wildlife and livestock and cause great changes in the phenology and demography, behaviour, morphology, genetics and distribution of many species in the Serengeti Ecosystem [37-39].

Human Population and Land use Change The human population in the northern Serengeti has historically been highly heterogeneous in culture and origin [40]. The human population density and growth rate have normally followed agricultural and pastoral opportunities. Thus, human densities are normally higher in areas with higher rainfall and better soil fertility. Village development, crop production and livestock grazing are not allowed in the Serengeti National Park. Human population densities are therefore at a minimum inside the park.

Deforestation and overgrazing are big problems in Africa as well as Tanzania.

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In contrast, an integrated approach is applied in the Loliondo Game Controlled Area and Ngorongoro Conservation Area, where Maasai people follow a traditional pastoralist lifestyle. In these areas, traditional livestock husbandry is combined with wildlife conservation. The rainfall levels in this area are in most cases too low for large-scale croplands.

However, the population increase in the area is presently at the same level as that of the rest of Tanzania.

The human population density is very high and increasing by more than 3% per year in the highrainfall, unprotected areas between the Serengeti National Park and Lake Victoria. There is a steadily increasing demand for land for agriculture and settlement. Thus, people move to drier and drier areas to grow crops. Human population growth west of Serengeti National Park drives people down rainfall gradients. A consequence of these human migration patterns is a deterioration of livelihoods and increased poverty [40]. The present day land use change, which is a consequence of the human population growth in the area, interferes with many natural processes, such as the wildebeest migration [41, 42]. New and novel economic opportunities through better transport and increased trade and tourism, as a consequence of the new northern tarmacked Serengeti road, may attract even more people to these sensitive areas. Such immigration will further increase regional population growth, thereby increasing pressure on the surrounding ecosystem (see Chapter 9).

This human population growth will cause significant land use changes in this sensitive ecosystem, although the consequences of these changes for the future are still unknown. However, such land use change is not new because it has occurred in the Serengeti Ecosystem over the last 50 years [40, 41].

The Impact of Upland Deforestation The Mau Forest catchment area in Kenya supplies water to the northern parts of the Serengeti National Park through the Mara River. The Mau Forest has experienced dramatic deforestation [43], with less than one third of this beautiful forest’s original extent remaining. This deforestation, in combination with large-scale irrigated agricultural systems in Kenya [44], is threatening the permanent flow of the Mara River throughout the dry season. The Mara River is of

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fundamental importance to the Serengeti Ecosystem because the water from the river is important for the survival of wildebeest that migrate to the Masai-Mara National Reserve during the dry season. In addition, the river is a critical water source during the dry season for livestock of pastoralists living downstream along the Mara River between the Serengeti National Park and Lake Victoria. If deforestation and agricultural development continues at the present rate, the Mara River will dry up every dry season within a few years [45]. A consequence will be that migratory species, such as wildebeest, will suffer high rates of mortality [46]. The region will also most likely become uninhabitable during a major part of the year for the Maasai pastoralists. A dramatic consequence for the region will be that tourism revenues may significantly decrease when the migration of wildebeest diminishes.

Deforestation provides valuable agricultural land and direct economic benefits to Kenyans; however, the long-term, negative, large-scale effects of these upland deforestations in Tanzania and Serengeti might outweigh the short-term, positive economic benefits of new agricultural opportunities in Kenya.

The Impact of Improving the Northern Serengeti Road This book considers the potential impacts of a new Northern Serengeti Road (Figure 1.2, see Chapter 2).

The main underlying reason for upgrading the Northern Serengeti Road is to facilitate transport for local communities (Maasai and Sonjo) residing in the eastern Serengeti and the multi-ethnic groups of the western Serengeti. While improved accessibility and infrastructure may enhance local economic prosperity (see Chapter 2 regarding this decision), negative effects may also emerge within the adjoining ecosystems.

Ecotourism significantly contributes to the national economy of Tanzania [47], and easier access to wildlife areas would promote tourism from abroad.

However, should the wildlife populations be negatively impacted by infrastructural development, it would negate any potential benefits to this specific industry. The repercussions are complex and include both positive and negative effects, an understanding of which is fundamental to prevent irreversible ecological damage.

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Figure 1.2 Map of the study area in Northern Serengeti, Tanzania (2011/2012) showing approximate location of the proposed Northern Serengeti Road and distribution of studied villages, as well as existing and proposed road networks.

Facing page and below: Some of the reasons for deforestation are agriculture, firewood, charcoal, housing materials and fencing.

Scenic view of active volcanic mountain observed from Engaruka historical site

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The proposed new Northern Serengeti Road would improve access for local people from Mto-wa-Mbu to Loliondo in the Arusha Region and Makutano-Natta to Mugumu in the Mara Region (between the Serengeti National Park and Lake Victoria) (Figure 1.2) and would link the north-eastern and north-western regions of Tanzania. However, international concern has been raised that the road would jeopardise the ecological functioning of the Serengeti Ecosystem by, amongst others, interrupting the wildebeest migratory corridor [48]. This opinion has been supported by scientists who simulated potential consequences using mathematical models [49]. The situation becomes even more complex and uncertain when the pressure from the growing populations and their poverty is considered [50-53]. The aim of this book is therefore to discuss the potential impacts, both positive and negative, that this road may have on humans, wildlife, and the ecosystem as a whole.

Large Mammals Large mammals have been recorded along the total Northern Serengeti Road from Mto-wa-mbu to Isenye. An open vehicle with a driver and two observers was driven at a speed of ca. 20 km per hour. Transects were 2 km in length, and all of the animals within 500 m on either side of the road were counted. Between the 2-km transects were 4-km stretches where no animals were counted. Control transects, which were perpendicular to the main road, were also included. Normally, it took 5 days to drive the entire length of the road.

The African wild dog is an endangered species. The new road in northern Serengeti may jeopardize the sustainability of the local population in the ecosystem.

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Wildebeest Migration The 1.3 million wildebeest that migrate annually from the southern plains in the Serengeti National Park and Ngorongoro Conservation Area northwards to the Masai Mara National Reserve is a spectacular sight and one of the wonders of Africa. One of the most important areas for the wildebeest is the southern plains, where they arrive in November during the short rain season.

Their calves are born there from February-March [54].

From May to July, the wildebeest migrate through the western parts of the ecosystem back towards Masai Mara [10], where they spend 2-3 months (AugustOctober) before they migrate back to the southern plains, taking a more easterly route [10] (Figure 1.3).

This migration attracts thousands of tourists to the Serengeti and Masai Mara every year. The primary concern is that the combination of all of the impacts (population growth, climate change, deforestation of the Mau Forest, and new Northern Serengeti Road) will endanger this wonder of Africa. This problem will be discussed in more detail in Chapter 16.

African Wild Dog A few decades ago, one of the great attractions in the Serengeti National Park was viewing the African wild dogs on the Serengeti Plains. However, in the early 1990’s, the wild dogs disappeared from the plains, creating a serious discussion among scientists regarding the cause of the local extinction [55]. However, the endangered wild dogs survived in the northern Ngorongoro Conservation Area and in the Loliondo Game Controlled Area. A sizeable population inhabits

Figure 1.3 The clockwise annual wildebeest migration route.

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CHAPTER ONE • The Serengeti Ecosystem

One of the main prey of the African wild dogs is the wildebeest calf.

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the area, causing some conflicts with the local Maasai and Sonjo tribes [56, 57]. African wild dogs range over large areas and are capable of dispersing long distances from where they were born [58, 59]. The new Northern Serengeti Road will transect the wild dog habitat, and it is important to understand potential perturbations arising from this and other future infrastructural developments. This problem will be discussed in Chapter 16.

The little bee-eater is a common species in the Serengeti National Park.

Facing page: Giraffes and impala are among the most common species photographed by tourists in the Serengeti National Park. However, animals moving close to the roads are at risk of being hit by cars.

Impala The impala is one of the most common antelopes in the Serengeti Ecosystem. This beautiful species is found both inside and outside the national park and is common in all of the wooded areas in the ecosystem [60]. Impala live in groups consisting of a single male and many females with calves, with such groups numbering up to 100 impalas [60]. Bachelor herds comprise juvenile males and adult males that do not have a female herd of their own. Impala are easy study objects and can serve as an indicator species when assessing the impacts of anthropogenic activities on the ecosystem. There are signs that human activities affect the sex ratios of different species, making them female biased. Such female-biased sex ratios have been found in this ecosystem where human activities have been high.

Impalas in human-dominated areas live in smaller groups, and the sex ratio is more female biased than that inside the national park [60]. A similar sex bias towards females has been found in wildebeest [54], ostriches [61] and giraffes [62]. Thus, impala can be used in future studies to test how increased human population density, climate change and other stressors might affect the animals in the Serengeti Ecosystem.

Birds and Small Mammals To examine the diversity of small mammal and bird communities along the Northern Serengeti Road, we chose five segments (see Chapter 3): four inside villages (2 west and 2 east of the national park) and one inside Serengeti National Park (Figure 1.2).

In each segment, two study villages at a distance of 0 km (close to the road) and 5-10 km (control) from the Northern Serengeti Road were selected for sampling. One sampling plot was established inside each village. Inside the Serengeti National Park, a control and an experimental plot were selected. The sampling plots were similar in vegetation, being in a shrub habitat, which is the habitat most preferred by small mammals [63, 64].

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Humans and Livestock To collect data on socioeconomic issues, as well as human and animal health, along the Northern Serengeti Road, we chose 12 villages: six to the west and six east of the Serengeti National Park (Figure 1.2) in two segments. Each segment consisted of three study villages at a distance of 0 km (close to the road) and one 5-10 km and one 15-20 km from the Northern Serengeti Road. We chose 50 households in each village to interview for the socioeconomic study and another 30 for health issues.

Tourism Serengeti National Park is a popular destination for tourists. Although tourists from all over the world visit the Serengeti, the majority are Europeans and North Americans (ca. 70% of the visitors). Since 2000, the number of tourists has increased by more than 10% every year [51]. Presently, more than half a million visitors visit Serengeti National Park annually. Most tourists come to witness the beauty of the Serengeti and its rich biodiversity, including the wildebeest migration. However, many tourists also want to witness cultural and historical sites, including the famous Oldupai Gorge and the Maasai people. Tourism is an important source of income for Tanzania, although little of the revenue filters down to the local communities surrounding the protected areas. Local communities therefore do not share the same perception of the value of the protected areas as do Tanzania’s central government and the international community [65]. A challenge for the future conservation of the Serengeti Ecosystem is to involve the local people in any conservation aspect and ensure that some of the tourism-derived benefits reach the local households.

Environment To examine the soil and water quality along the Northern Serengeti Road, we chose five segments: four inside villages (2 west and 2 east of the national park) and one inside the Serengeti National Park (Figure 1.2). In each segment, two study villages at a distance of 0 km (close to the road) and 5-10 km (control) from the Northern Serengeti Road were selected for sampling.

One sampling plot was established inside each village and two inside Serengeti National Park, a control and an experimental plot were used as described in the birds and small mammals section. The sampling plots were in similar vegetation and shrub habitat [63, 64].

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Northern Serengeti

Road Ecology

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