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s we move into 2022, we expect the following trends to impact our property market, according to Pam Golding research: Interest rates: These are likely to be moving higher but the slow pace suggests this will remain a benign environment for the housing market with interest rates expected to rise gradually in small 25bps increments. Affordability: We have already seen the surge in first-time home buyer demand fade as the effects of the aggressive interest rate cuts early last year abate. Although interest rates are unlikely to prove a significant impediment, consumers are dealing with the economic fallout of the pandemic, load shedding and subdued growth prospects. That said, SA’s young population does mean that there will always be a steady demand from young buyers – to the extent that they can afford to purchase a home. Co-living and merging of residential and commercial: The co-living trend continues to gather momentum despite initial fears that the pandemic would bring this to an end. People have realised that infection is more about shared air space than contaminated surfaces, and outdoor space is likely to retain its appeal as we all spend more time at home –
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GARETH BAILEY HIGHLIGHTS PROPERTY TRENDS AND FACTORS FOR THE YEAR AHEAD
less time than last year but more time than before Covid. A key theme of the pandemic is that businesses need to be as flexible as possible, so co-working remains popular, as does co-living – in micro units with shared living spaces which offer community and reduced costs and maintenance. Conversion of office space: We have seen the conversion of office space into residential and/or the mixeduse model for some time, but now as businesses become more flexible to survive in the pandemic economy, the focus is to try to tap into as many markets as possible – office, retail, residential, gym, etc. Pure office space is likely to be under the most pressure of all sectors, so it is anticipated that much of this will have to change.
This implies a focus on central cultural districts in recognition of the fact that people are not there purely for the business but rather acknowledging the fact that in order to collaborate they may need physical connection. Fading Zoom Boom but semigration prevails: One of the key trends to emerge during the pandemic was the rise of the Zoom Boom – the realisation that working remotely meant you were able to live anywhere. This
Business hubs: It is becoming apparent, particularly given the acceleration in fuel price hikes, that even if people only come to the office occasionally, the office needs to be in a prime and accessible location, making location even more important than before.
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prompted many homeowners to relocate to peripheral suburbs or to smaller towns historically considered holiday or retirement destinations. Now, however, people are gradually returning to the office amidst a realisation that there are certain types of work which require physical interaction with ones’ colleagues. While there is currently general agreement that we are unlikely to return to the five-day at the office workweek, the realisation that one may well be required to be present in the office three days a week has made people reassess the reality of living a few hours’ drive away from their place of work. To rent or buy? The shift from renting to buying was probably at its peak in 2020 as first-time home buyers took
