Fantasy Football Mag - Edition 1

ANALYSIS: WHEN TO PLAY YOUR REMAINING CHIPS

FFM Gameweek 30-38

www.fantasyfootballmag.com

FANTASY FOOTBALL MAGAZINE

EDITION 1

TACTICS, STRATEGIES AND THEORY TO FINISH YOUR FPL SEASON IN STYLE.

ANALYSIS

To Hit, Or Not To Hit? #FPL Community Advice FREE Cash League

Lessons Learned From Previous Double Gameweeks UNDERLYING METRICS

How To Make Perceptive Transfers Using Stats THE KEY TO CONSISTENCY

INSIDE THE MIND OF A FORMER WORLD CHAMPION

GAME THEORY

A new way to play FPL 5

2-2 PAGES 2

CONTENTS

04-05 The FPL Sprint 06-10 Inside The Mind Of A Former World Champion 12-15 How To Make Perceptive Transfers Using Stats 16-19 To Hit, Or Not To Hit...

20-21 Three Chips Better Than All Out Attack 22-25 Game Theory: A New Way To Play FPL 26-27 Fixture Tracker (Expected Goals & Clean Sheets) 28-29 Lessons Learned From Previous Double Gameweeks 30-33 Analysis: When To Play Your Remaining Chips 34-37 #FPL Community Advice 38 Outro 39 Acknowledgements

ABOUT THE

MAGAZINE

W

elcome to the first edition of the Fantasy Football Magazine, a publication that seeks to focus on the fundamental tactics and strategies of the game we all secretly love to hate and hate to love.

The old adage that an FPL season is “a marathon, not a sprint” is bandied about all too often (usually by managers who have just had a terrible gameweek, we hasten to add), but it is a mantra that we take very seriously.

It explains why some FPL managers are able to do consistently well every season. It explains why the leader of your mini-league always seems to get lucky with their picks. Indeed, viewing the game as a season-long battle of patience, tactics and skill rather than a week-byweek guessing game almost removes the element of luck entirely.

It is with this in mind that we set about putting together a publication that showcases the best and most useful content in the FPL community, written by the most reputable FPL experts on planet Earth.

The secret to FPL success lies in the fundamentals, and it is these that the Fantasy Football Magazine will delve into.

The first edition shines the magnifying glass upon the final weeks of the Fantasy Premier League season – often as treacherous as they are thrilling.

Though mini-league leaders may be starting to gloat, there is still a huge amount to play for, and navigating the minefield of blank gameweeks, impending suspensions and when to use those oh-so-valuable chips (assuming you still have any at all) can all get a bit much for even the most hardened FPL veterans.

You won’t find captaincy tips and differential punts here. You’ll find in-depth analysis from seasoned FPL pundits on game theory, using % ownership to your advantage, chip usage for double gameweeks, what we can learn from previous seasons and much, much more. Plus exclusive entry to an end-of-season mini-league with a cash prize for the winner, of course.

Whether you’re in this for pride, cash prizes or good ole’ fashioned bitter rivalry with friends and colleagues, read on. We’re here to help.

Fantasy Football Magazine

@fantasyfootymag

WRITERS Marwan Elsaifi @marz05

Tom Fenley @tomfenley

Jamie Reeves @jamieFPL

Clarke Hutchison @NaturalFootyFan

Trevor Gordon @trevg1977

James Copeland @tongueinloftus

Peter Blake

@artemidorus_1

Seyum Berhe @SuperCool67

Adam Alcock

@AdamalcockFF247

Did you know?

If you’re reading this PDF from your computer, you can view it as a magazine layout by clicking: Apple (Preview): View > 2 Pages Windows (Adobe Reader): View > Page Display > Two-Up

COVER DESIGN Mirko Nestorovic LAYOUT DESIGN Amanda Heredia COVER PHOTO BY: JOSHJDSS

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FPL

THE

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Marwan Elsaifi kicks off the first edition of the Fantasy Football Magazine with an overview of the vital factors to consider when approaching the final stretch of the season.

SPRINT

t’s that time again; we’re approaching the final sprint of the FPL season. Regardless of when you’re reading this (unless the season has concluded and you’re just here for the memories), there’s still a lot to play for. Whether it’s your overall rank (OR), winning our free cash minileague (page 11), finishing above your mate/work colleague or just ending the season on a high, there’s always a reason to score as many FPL points as your squad will allow.

We’ve all heard it before, “it’s a marathon, not a sprint”.

Whilst that’s true for most of the season, it’s simply not true anymore. The time to make your way to the starting blocks is finally upon us. Now is the time to start making calculated moves, taking bold risks and throwing (some) caution to the wind. Are you winning your mini-league? Are you chasing? Everyone, presumably, wants to improve their OR, and it’s these last weeks that will make the difference.

We have had our first double gameweek (DGW) and our first blank gameweek (BGW), and we know there are still more to come. With Chelsea joining Spurs, Arsenal and Man City in the last four of the FA Cup, some of the league’s biggest teams will have fixture clashes, with most of the rescheduled fixtures likely to be played in GW37. With the Capital One Cup yet to conclude as well, it’s going to be tough for even the most vigilant FPL managers to keep on top of their squad’s fixtures. To add to the confusion (and the fun, I guess), GW34 is both a DGW for some and a BGW for others. Blimey.

With the above in mind, planning will be essential. Quite simply, it will be the difference between winning/advancing in your mini-league and falling short of the mark. Planning is what differentiates FPL fanatics from the so-called “casual” FPL players, and I’m guessing, as you’re here, you’re probably the former.

WC and Other Chips: If you still have your chips, great! As Trevor outlines later on in this magazine (pages 30-33), if you can save the vital chips for a DGW then do it, but don’t desecrate your team in the meantime. I’ll leave the elaboration to him.

If you’ve used most of your chips already, there’s no need to panic, but planning your moves becomes even more vital.

As Adam’s study on hits (pages 16-19) argues, taking hits can be justified in a DGW - don’t be shy of doing it if it benefits your team in the long term!

Differentials: Differentials are huge at this stage. Of course they’re a gamble, but every FPL manager must take a gamble now and again. Just ask Tom Fenley (pages 6-10). Choosing a differential all depends on what your aim is; finishing with a rank that is as high as possible, winning your mini-league(s), or, as I suspect will be the case for most of you, a combination of the two. Just remember, if you are chasing in your mini-league, you may need to reconsider what a differential really is. A player can be globally owned by less than 10%, but owned by all of those above you in your mini-league. In that instance, is the player really a differential?

Check out Peter’s analysis of underlying metrics (pages 12-15) to understand what factors go into picking the best differentials as the season draws to a close.

Things to be Wary of: Two Match Suspensions – Those yellow cards are adding up.

Make sure your target transfer isn’t close to 10 bookings.

Rotation – It may sound like stating the obvious, but try to stay away from those players who aren’t regular starters or prone to being rested. It’s hard to second guess a manager but try to go for those players that appear to be indispensable. They do exist!

Teams That are Already “on the Beach” - How many times have we lamented the teams who are safe from relegation and can’t qualify for Europe? Let’s learn from our past mistakes. Jamie does a fantastic job of illustrating how complacent those teams can get towards the end of the season on pages 28-29. If a team has nothing to play for in the league, then they are more prone to resting /rotating players and unexpected results (need I remind you of Newcastle’s 5-1 thrashing of Tottenham last season?).

Pick Players who are Still Playing for Something - Opposite to the above, we are lucky that the races for European places and Premier League survival are still wide open. Fierce competition is great news for us FPL managers; it means less rotation, better performances and some potential bargains at the bottom end of the table too.

Early Transfers - In GW28, Harry Kane featured on both the Top 5 Transfers In and the Top 5 Transfers Out lists. Those that couldn’t wait for his FA Cup clash against Millwall, during which the Spurs man hobbled off with a recurring ankle injury, were duly punished for their impatience. If you can wait, please do. Sometimes it’s worth losing a bit of team-value for a guaranteed starter.

Finally, remember that the closing weeks of the season can be brutal, but equally, they present a fantastic opportunity to capitalise on the poor planning and organisation of the managers around you. Take the FPL Sprint seriously and you’ll soon be leaving managers in your wake. On your marks, get set…

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myMagazine

BELOW ARE SOME THOUGHTS ON HOW TO APPROACH THE FINAL 8 GAMES:

INSIDE THE MIND OF A FORMER WORLD

CHAMPION

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Hi Tom. Firstly, congratulations

on your FPL success. How’s this season shaping up for you so far?

The FPL vernacular is full of clichés and one comes to mind for my endeavors this campaign - I’ve had all the right players, just at the wrong times. It’s been a compelling season though; there are now six or seven teams in the Premier League that have strong big-hitter options among them.

Alongside some of the more budget players that have hit patches of form, it’s made it a struggle to have a squad that is consistent or that I’m fully content with. It means I’ve cut loose of late - some misfortune really helps with pulling the trigger on hits. I wouldn’t have it any other way though. I’m unlikely to ever repeat the thrill of chasing the very top spots but I still really enjoy the ups and downs of the game and of course, there’s still almost a quarter of the season to go.

“S

Since finishing 1st overall in the 2013/14 FPL season, Tom Fenley has never finished a season outside of the top 15k managers worldwide. We sat him down to find out how he’s achieved such remarkable consistency in a game that is rooted in unpredictability.

TRATEGY, PATIENCE, CONFIDENCE AND A COMMITMENT TO STAYING UP TO DATE WITH HOW THE LEAGUE IS PROGRESSING MEANS SKILL IS A MAJOR DETERMINANT IN WHERE YOU END UP.”

PHOTO BY: ADE OSHINEYE

With double gameweeks and blank gameweeks, plus the added variable of the chips, the last weeks of the season are often the most pivotal in determining overall rank. How do you prepare for this final leg?

It’s important to pay close attention throughout the season if you want to end up with a high overall placing.

However, the introduction of the chips appears to have put more emphasis on the closing stages with larger swings in rank possible. The disruption caused by blanks and DGWs also demands longer term planning. To prepare, I’ll keep up to date with news on fixture movement.

It’s crucial to keep in mind which teams will have extra matches when making transfers. It’s also sensible to have a potential gameweek in mind to play that precious second Wildcard. That will influence how far ahead I look when bringing in players. In particular, I may bring fringe

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assets into the squad with only a few fixtures in mind over a long period. Keeping on top of potentially lengthy rotation systems and being aware of fund distribution is also vital. It allows transfers to be used primarily on trying to ensure that you have the in-form big-hitters and captaincy options when needed.

In the 2013/14 season, there were no chips and the WC format was different too. Were there any tactics and/or philosophies that you utilised to adjust to the new FPL game?

The most obvious difference is being able to play the second Wildcard anytime in the second-half of the season as opposed to only January. That combined with the valuable Bench Boost chip set out a clear strategy for the closing weeks. That is to hold the second Wildcard for the round before a double gameweek. Then to recruit 14-15 of the players with a pair of fixtures the following week, activate the Bench Boost chip and watch the points flow in.

It is such a drastic change that any conception of rank up to that point will always be skewed. The chips are designed to maintain interest throughout the season and it certainly makes your final overall rank harder to predict.

In terms of philosophies, the underlying principles and attitudes still apply. The chips and altered Wildcard provided new situations to negotiate but the fundamental rules are the same - adapt and get as many points as you can.

es. But really it’s a matter of focusing on scoring points just as you would at any time in the season.

There are of course subjective arguments for taking more risks, if you are chasing a lead in a mini-league for example then you may throw caution to the wind. Conversely if you are ahead you may want to cover the pursuing pack and match their transfers to limit differentials.

Again, the main advice I would give is to not overreact to the market, your opponents or make reckless transfers, patience in the final gameweeks can pay-off as others scramble for points. Keeping calm and carrying on with your personal strategy is both sensible and more rewarding if you climb up the ranks.

That sounds like a reasonably dull way of playing but it doesn’t have to be. In my title winning season, towards the end I transferred in Laurent Koscielny for a hit based on a hunch backed up by some thorough research - he went on to score and keep a clean sheet. Sometimes, a well thoughtthrough punt can tip the balance and a little foolhardiness makes the game more fun.

One of the biggest struggles that FPL managers face is the problem of over-thinking. As the season draws to a close and the mini-leagues begin to heat up, it’s more difficult than ever to resist second-guessing your every move. How did you cope with that strain as the overall leader, and what lessons have you learnt from the experience?

I’m not sure over-thinking is necessarily a problem for me, but acting on impulse can be regrettable. Often FPL can be played in quite a straightforward manner. If you employ a flexible short to mid-term strategy, then each week you will likely have a transfer in mind. Essentially a well organised team should only need one transfer every week or two and it should be fairly clear who to target.

The issues arise with injuries, DGWs and bandwagons messing with plans. The knee-jerking can be influenced by movement in the transfer market as much as over-thinking.

Researching and interpreting statistics should always improve your grasp of the bigger picture. Being swayed by an urge to get the latest hat-trick scorer in can disrupt from a perfectly viable and effective method. But then form is a fickle friend in FPL. Ultimately I think it’s key to stick to your guns, back your own thoughts and not be swayed too much by the opinions of others or price changes. That doesn’t mean it’s negative to think of alternatives, weigh up options and advice or make early transfers, it’s just that steady does tend to win the race.

In the closing stages of the season these factors can feel more acute, the decisions appear to carry more consequenc-

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“I think it’s key to stick to your guns, back your own thoughts and not be swayed too much by the opinions of others or price changes.”

You’ve managed to rank incredibly highly (11,709th and 11,168th) since your win in the 13/14 season. What are your thoughts on the oft-asserted notion that FPL is just a game of luck?

“A

WELL ORGANISED TEAM SHOULD ONLY NEED ONE TRANSFER EVERY WEEK”

There is undoubtedly an element of luck; it’s based on real life which is not predictable. Injuries and suspensions are the most obvious demonstration that it’s beyond our control and even the best laid plans can come unstuck.

That being said, over a 38 gameweek season, it’s possible to make your own luck and there is certainly some level of skill involved. That’s demonstrated by far more consistent players than myself - the unerring regularity of the mysterious Ville Ronka’s (a player who has eight consecutive top 5K placings) high finishes shows that he’s more than getting lucky each year. I think luck indubitably plays a part but that sound strategy, patience, confidence and a commitment to staying up to date with how the league is progressing means skill is a major determinant in where you end up.

PHOTO BY: ADE OSHINEYE

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This will take in everything from their goal attempts (especially inside the penalty area), shots on target, chance creation, odds of scoring, dead-ball duties and also analysis of their opponents: do they concede more chances in the box, from set pieces etc than the alternative? If there’s still not a clear frontrunner at this point then it’s back to the initial player that I wanted to back on instinct.

To what extent do you factor in % ownership to your game? Is it an important stat for you when considering transfer, captaincy and team-selection options?

It’s difficult to talk about ownership as there will always be a proportion of ‘ghost’ teams making those numbers inaccurate in terms of actual active managers that you’re competing against.

There is a convincing argument that the wisdom of the crowd provides a strong indicator of who will do well.

Though, I would never dismiss or make a transfer based solely on high or low ownership.

Certainly early on in the season it can help increase squad value by sticking with the majority and following general market trends. It’s also usually practical to select high ownership captains, their popularity is due to them regularly scoring lots of points so it’s a safe formula for maintaining your rank.

Overall, it’s far better to focus on your own research and back your own intuition on which players will score points.

Every squad is different and should be balanced according to your strategy; it’s likely to be difficult, if not impossible to own all the high ownership players. It’s getting the right ones that’s important.

We’ve noticed you’re in several mini-leagues this season. What tactics would you recommend to those looking to close in on their mini-league leader, or hold their position at the top?

As I’ve mentioned, it’s always best to focus on your own team and the transfers that will benefit your squad in the long-run. Making reactive as opposed to proactive moves can end up backfiring as it may not fit in with your own strategies.

If you’re struggling then it may be time to re-think how you are researching and deciding on which players to select. It could be that you’re playing too conservatively and need to take more risks. You may need to admit mistakes and transfer out a favourite player that you’ve held onto for too long.

When chasing it can be easy to fall into a trap of wanting to be different just to close the gap faster. It’s much better to be bold but not impatient. Target differentials that have a healthy chance of succeeding, so picking an alternative captain who also has a favourable fixture and has shown signs of form, despite your opponent going with the stand-out choice.

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It’s about engaging in a gradual, steady and well thought out pursuit. Don’t make wild decisions out of frustration, it can just leave you further behind. If you catch them it will be because your team has done well, if you don’t then at least you haven’t dropped off because of rash transfers.

The principles are predominantly the same if you are maintaining or looking to extend a lead. You’ve already been doing well so stick to your guns and play the game, not the chasing pack. It’s a dangerous tactic to be making transfers based on those in pursuit as it can distract you from continuing with the types of moves that have put you ahead in the first place. You’re also outnumbered and can’t cover every player behind you.

Sometimes a blocking tactic can be effective though, for example, bringing in an in-form big-hitter if you are far ahead and the next two players both have him is an obvious way to cover yourself. Such clear-cut cases where that tactic is very likely to pay-off will be few and far between though.

If you’re winning then keep on playing as you have been for the most part, that’s why you’re top.

Finally, at The Fantasy Football Magazine we like to focus on the fundamentals. In the past you’ve put an emphasis on using common-sense and building team value from the outset.

What other philosophies and tactics do you apply year in, year out to ensure FPL success?

This is the hardest question to answer and there’s not a single philosophy that can definitely work year-by-year. That means being adaptable and willing to change your approach each season or even each gameweek is the most significant consideration to bear in mind.

The next principal factor to consider is the utilisation of the free transfer each gameweek. That is the main move you make to influence how well you do. If you want to succeed regularly then forming a methodology on how you value, assess and ultimately use those transfers will define how consistent you can become.

It’s a case of establishing rules for yourself but also being willing to break them if your research points that way. As I’ve mentioned, it’s important to be patient by limiting hits for example. Though if the need arises and it fits in with your plans then taking that penalty can sometimes be the right move.

The salient aspects of making transfers are very much subjective, depending on multiple variables at any point.

Among other components, things such as injuries, fixture swings, formation and budgetary limitations means that your squad will have different priorities to others. It’s about identifying what transfer is best for your team in the mid to long term. That can mean researching statistics for hours on end or going with your gut instinct.

Then it’s a case of watching the matches and enjoying the game, hoping it all works and that you’ll sometimes get lucky. If not there’s always the next week and the next season to look forward to.

ABOUT OUR SPONSORS As the ever-generous Bet4theBest kindly put forward £100 for our prize fund, it’s only fair that we return the favour with a few words about their website. Bet4theBest allows you to win money playing fantasy football each gameweek. Every matchday you can create a fantasy team from scratch and enter it into a one-day league where the highest finishers receive a cash prize. Sign-up is simple, and with the budget-free selection, you can construct a squad in minutes. They also boast top heavy payout structures and smaller, often more competitive, tournaments - the perfect opportunity to showcase your football knowledge and win some prizes in the final stretch of the season.

TERMS: To avoid people entering numerous teams in an attempt to win our weekly prizes and to ensure that our readers win the prizes, the following terms and conditions apply: 1. Your Fantasy Premier League team must be over 20 gameweeks old. 2. Winners must email us from the same address they used to download the magazine.

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HOW TO MAKE PERCEPTIVE TRANSFERS USING STATS In this comprehensive study, Peter Blake demonstrates why underlying metrics are a valuable weapon in your artillery when making perceptive transfer decisions.

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Playing the odds

n his excellent book ‘The Signal And The Noise’, Nate Silver meets one of the world’s elite sports bettors, Bob Voulgaris, a man who bets thousands of dollars every week. Voulgaris hires assistants to monitor NBA players’ positions on the pitch, scrutinises hundreds of Twitter feeds of players, and listens for subtle hints in the press conferences of every coach. He has combined mathematical models and his own knowledge to great effect in order to become a very rich man who has made his entire fortune from gambling. However, Voulgaris, Silver estimates, loses almost as many bets as he wins. Bob Voulgaris, it turns out, is right only about 57% of the time.

But he doesn’t need to be right all the time; he just needs to be right more frequently than he is wrong in order to make money. Although the gaming structures are different the same is true of Fantasy Football: you don’t have to be right all the time. You just have to be right more frequently than your rivals.

FPL is fundamentally a game of probability. Luck will play its role, always, but the well-researched manager will increase his chances of being right more than he is wrong through taking in information and synthesizing it correctly. All managers will ingest the basics: perceived strength of the opposition, recent form, etc. but the obsessives amongst us go that extra step in the quest for insight through community chat, podcasts, blogs, and if you’re like me, lots and lots of performance statistics.

Data, data and more data During the 2016/17 pre-season, I began experimenting more in the quest for differentiated knowledge in an effort to move closer towards the proverbial ‘57%’. The upshot was a large-scale analysis of the actions that Premier League players take on the pitch relative to their official FPL game points. I wanted to see whether there was a correlation between the Effects – that is, goals, assists, and the other actions which generate points – and the underlying Causes as recorded by Opta. By identifying the Causes it would be possible to understand how many points a player should have scored based on his actions, which could subsequently be used as an aid for identifying players for recruitment.

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For the analysis, I assessed 568 players over two seasons – a total of 825 unique records from 2014 to 2016 – for their adjusted points total (more on this in a moment) within the official FPL game as the dependant variable and 54 performance metrics as the independent variables, providing a total of 44,550 data points.

Only records where a player recorded more than four games’ worth of minutes (360) in a season qualified for the analysis.

The aforementioned ‘Adjusted Points’ requires a quick explanation, for it was a way to cleanse the data of non-action-related points. The ubiquitous points-gathering method that transcends all players regardless of on-field position or in-game activity is appearance points, two for completing 60 minutes and one for 0-59 minutes. In an analysis which looked to identify independent variables relevant to points scoring ability, it was not necessary to include this information and so I removed the total points accumulated by appearance for all players. Therefore, taking an example from the 2015/16 season, the leading point scorer in the game was Riyad Mahrez with 240 points. But by virtue of 34 appearances of 60+ minutes and three more under 60, he would have scored 71 points regardless. So, his Adjusted Points total was 169 (240-71).

Developing performance analysis models In order to discover if there was a correlation, I performed linear regression analysis on the underlying metrics of choice against the FPL Adjusted Points Total. If there was a perfect correlation – that is, when an increase in the FPL Adjusted Points could be predicted entirely by the increase in the underlying metric – then the correlation value will be 1.000, whereas if the reverse was true – when the increase perfectly coincides with a decrease in the underlying metric – then the correlation value would be -1.000. If there was no relationship – the two sets of data exist completely independently of each other – the value would be 0.000.

I tested several combinations of metrics and theories for their statistical strength. The ones that satisfied both the statistical process and an explanatory narrative I could appreciate were as follows:

Goalkeepers’ Adjusted Points totals vs. Potential Adjusted Points totals, multiple independent variables, seasons 2014/15 and 2015/16 (Adjusted R2 = 0.955, n=65) Figure 1: Adjusted Points = (4.792*Clean Sheets) + (0.519*Saves) – (0.027*Touches) Fig.1

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This model tells a simple story: goalkeeping points can be accumulated with Clean Sheets and to a lesser extent Saves, but some points will be lost the busier the goalkeeper is (Touches) because goals are then inevitably conceded.

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Defenders’ Adjusted Points totals vs. Potential Adjusted Points totals, multiple independent variables, seasons 2014/15 and 2015/16 (Adjusted R2 = 0.820, n=283)

Figure 2: Adjusted Points = (5.029*Clean Sheets) + (0.176*Attempts from Set Plays) + (0.015*Touches in the Final Third) + (0.447*Shots) - (0.104*Tackles) (0.032*CBI) - 3.860

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PHOTO BY: JOSHJDSS

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Figure 3: Adjusted Points = (1.988*Shots on Target) + (0.019*Touches in the Final Third) + (0.034*Passes Received in the Final Third) – 5.854

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In simple terms, this model shows that for every Clean Sheet a team achieves, an extra 5.029 points can be added onto the player’s end of season Adjusted Points total, and for every Attempt from a Set Play add an extra 0.176 points, etc. The most interesting thing to note about the equation above is that whilst it shows the incremental benefit of attacking activity (e.g. there is a positive benefit for shots, etc), points are deducted for defensive activity: for every tackle a player makes, 0.104 points are lost, for every addition to his CBI total, 0.032 points are lost. This means, in flippant terms, that defenders accumulate more points when they don’t have to bother with actual defending. Note: it is worth pointing out at this stage that Clean Sheets are a team metric that are an Effect rather than a Cause. Therefore, as this season has developed I have been using other metrics as a proxy for Clean Sheets when assessing player potential, most recently Big Chances Conceded.

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Midfielders’ Adjusted Points totals vs.

Projected Adjusted Points totals, multiple independent variables, seasons 2014/15 and 2015/16 (Adjusted R2 = 0.818, n=340)

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Figure 4: Adjusted Points = (1.697*Shots on Target) + (0.034*Touches in the Final Third) – 5.670

If we think about a midfielder’s Goals and Assists as by-products of his ability to put himself at the centre of the attack, then we consider that a midfielder’s points-scoring ability is related to his possession of the ball in key attacking areas. Therefore, our formula is at its strongest when we supplement Shots On Target with the amount of possession the midfielder has in the attacking third via touches and passes received.

Forwards’ Adjusted Points totals vs. Potential Adjusted Points totals, Shot on Target and Touches in the Final Third as independent variables, seasons 2014/15 and 2015/16 (Adjusted R2 = 0.873, n=137) The numbers reveal that, over the course of the season, the principal metric to monitor in order to predict points is Shots On Target, along with Touches in the Final Third.

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KEY POINTS

The Blind Men and the Elephant

A goalkeeper’s success is dependent on the defensive unit he is a part of, making the acquisition of a premium goalkeeper for consistency throughout the season a desirable option over the high-risk forecasting of when a mid-rank goalkeeper’s team will keep a Clean Sheet (budget-dependent, of course).

Defenders also depend on the team’s defensive performance, so Clean Sheets must be the primary target, with attacking returns secondary. Ideally, the defender should engage in the least amount of defending activity possible.

Midfielders who see a lot of the ball in the attacking third should be prized above all others.

Forwards who hit the target most often will score more points, so Shots On Target should be monitored closely.

It should go without saying yet I feel I must anyway: the analysis here looks at Adjusted Points which has removed the appearance points. Clearly, for the maximum returns possible, pick players who are going to play regularly.

So there you have it: an FPL strategy born out of analysis of underlying metrics. It simultaneously reveals the complexity inherent in the game that makes it so hard to master on the one hand, and on the other provides the tools to see through the murkiness and succeed. The only thing left is to go forth and conquer, right?

Well, no, not quite.

The analysis here provides a view on how FPL points are scored with respect to the underlying metrics, but the timescales dealt with here are long (a season), meaning that any kinks and fluctuations that happen on a weekly basis are ironed out over the course of the season. In a shorter timeframe, the numbers could be misleading and/or misinterpreted. Below is the performance of Zlatan Ibrahimovic from this season to anecdotally illustrate the point. We can see here that at various stages of the season Ibrahimovic has been both over - and under - performing in FPL Adjusted Points relative to what he was expected to have achieved based on his actions on the pitch.

CUMULATIVE ADJUSTED POINTS CUMULATIVE PROJECTED ADJUSTED POINTS

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BOU (H) 1-1

WAT (H) 2-0

LEI (A) 0-3

HUL (H) 0-0

STK (A) 1-1

LIV (H) 1-1

WHU (A) 0-2

MID (H) 2-1

SUN (H) 3-1

WBA (A) 0-2

CRY (A) 1-2

TOT (H) 1-0

EVE (A) 1-1

WHU (H) 1-1

ARS (H) 1-1

SWA (A) 1-3

BUR (H) 0-0

CHE (A) 4-0

LIV (A) 0-0

STK (H) 1-1

LEI (H) 1-1

WAT (A) 3-1

MCI (A) 3-1

HUL (A) 1-2

SOU (H) 2-0

0 BOU (A) 1-3

0

In the first five gameweeks (GW) he came out swinging with four goals and an assist and so was over-performing. Looking at the data through the lens of this methodology would have revealed a player who is either essential because he is outscoring his expectations, or is due a barren spell if you believe the numbers will eventually even themselves out. As it happened the latter was true, because if you looked at his numbers again at any point between GW7 to GW16 you would have seen him as underperforming as the shots on target continued but the goals dried up.

By GW27 he was actually on-par with what his underlying stats suggest he should have been. Yet he may finish the season over-, under- or on-par with the model’s expectations; after all, the model views the aggregated performances of all players, and figures 1-4 on page 13 show that few players actually finish the season on the trendline, with most over- or under-performing. This is like the old fable about the blind men and the elephant, where one touches the tail and thinks it’s a rope, the other touches the trunk and thinks it’s a snake, etc; the numbers at an aggregated level can be perceptive and reveal the whole story, but focusing on individual or small clusters of data points within the whole can be deceptive, which is the risk we run when using these models for short-term predictions.

Remain open to new ideas, sources and data The Blind Men fable can be expanded to encapsulate the wider FPL strategy undertaken by managers. Football is a game of innumerable variables and permutations, and an overdependence on a single model such as the one developed here would be an attempt to reduce the world into monochrome that will ultimately be doomed to fail. Throughout this season I have been posting player tables on my Mathematically Safe blog, blending these formulas with another model I have developed that assesses the difficulty of forthcoming fixtures to create an objective ranking of potential points per minute on the pitch. But these are simply presentations of facts; or rather, a version of the truth through the lens of a single model. Statistics are meaningless without context, and the burden of interpretation as to what data is really telling us and the contextualisation of their place within the whole is on the reader. The numbers from these models only make sense when understood within the wider perspective.

Bob Voulgaris knows this, and his information-gathering operation is a technicolour array of models, data and opinions, all synthesized in his head to form predictions based on probabilistic, not deterministic, thinking. The use of underlying statistics, and the development of these models have been my way of adding to the spectrum that inform my FPL decisions. I would encourage all FPL managers to continuously seek to expand your player assessment methodologies to include new sources and ideas, or better still develop your own models, for this is just one of an infinite number of possible methods of slicing data and is by no means definitive. Regular review of your assumptions and influences won’t guarantee success, but you will give yourself an increased chance of making the right decision more often than not.

This article is a revised and edited version of the original article that appeared on the author’s personal blog mathematicallysafe.wordpress.com

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TO HIT, OR NOT TO HIT...

In an act of incredible bravery, FF247’s Adam Alcock examines his point hits throughout the season to find an answer to a question we’ve all asked ourselves.

“T

o hit, or not to hit, that is the question”...

Well ok, it isn’t necessarily the question, but it’s certainly one that we get asked on an hourly basis on the FF247 boards. If you follow Shakespeare’s original text through, the next line actually speaks of ‘suffering the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune’. The FPL arena probably wasn’t quite the context that The Bard was referring to when he wrote it, but it sure is apt when it comes to the issue of taking hits!

Now the fact that you have even opened this great new magazine probably means that you are an FPL player, so you’ll almost certainly be au fait with what ‘taking a hit’ means, but just in case you aren’t, I’m talking about taking a -4 point deduction in order to bring in an additional player in any given gameweek, above your allocated free transfer(s).

So, with the basics out of the way, I’m going to attempt to examine whether taking hits is actually worth it. I will take a look at a few scenarios when taking a hit is actually acceptable, and fairly guilt-free, and a few where it wouldn’t necessarily be advised. I will also take a look at specific examples of ones that have worked and ones that haven’t and get into the psychology behind those decisions. Finally, I’ll be looking at how my own hits have worked out this season... gulp!

THE PAST I’ll be honest, I’ve warmed to the idea of taking hits over the years. That’s not to say that I take one every week, but I’ve certainly softened my approach to them. Whether that’s for better or worse is something that we can come onto later! I will admit that I was dead set against them when I began this FPL journey, some

16

10 years ago. The basis for that stance was mainly due to my best ever FPL finish (422nd); a season in which I took the grand total of ONE hit. All season! That lead me to believe for some time that not taking hits was the way to go. But with the wisdom of hindsight I do now wonder whether or not I could have climbed even higher toward the summit had I actually taken a few more risks along the way. That’s a question I guess we will never know the answer to now. But it’s certainly one worth examining.

THIS SEASON As I said above, I have loosened my approach since and as a bit of a case study I have decided to take a look at how my hits have worked out this season so far. It’s fair to say I didn’t realise just how loose I had become! I have actually taken 14 hits, which is a total points penalty of 56, and one hit every two weeks on average. This figure is slightly skewed by the blank gameweek in GW28, but I have a theory and a different approach on BGWs which I will touch on later. I have taken a hit on 10 weeks out of the 28 thus far, so it still looks fairly disciplined from that perspective, but when I have hit I’ve obviously gone in big. Ball rolling and all that…

The following table shows the weeks in which I have taken a hit and the points gained or lost as a result. The point score is a net figure, factoring in the total points gained by the players coming in minus the points of the players leaving and ultimately minus the points taken as a hit too. It also includes points gained by some players as being doubled if I captained them. I debated whether to include those captain scores but I decided that they should be included simply because I couldn’t have gained them if I had not taken the hit in the first instance.

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PHOTO BY: JOSHJDSS

GW RANK +/-

GW

PLAYERS IN

POINTS GAINED

PLAYERS OUT

POINTS LOST

HIT

NET POINT GAIN/LOSS

6

AGUERO, FIRMINO

28

VARDY, HAZARD

3

-4

+21

-106k

11

GUNDOGAN, AUSTIN

10

SNODDY, DEENEY

16

-4

-10

+27k

14

PHILLIPS, KANE

35

COUTINHO, DEFOE

9

-4

+22

+99k

15

SIGGY, COSTA, IHEANACHO

22

GUNDOGAN, AGUERO, AUSTIN

2

-8

+12

-26k

17

PAYET, CARROLL

5

FIRMINO, IHENACHO

4

-4

-3

-155k

18

WALCOTT, IBRA

30

PAYET, KANE

10

-4

+16

-23k

19

ALONSO, ALLI

17

0

-4

+13

+98k

26

LUKAKU, BARKLEY, COLEMAN, SNODDY

29

WALCOTT, VERTONGHEN CARROLL, SANCHEZ, KOSCIELNY, STAN

0

-8

+21

+53k

27

STERLING, STONES

12

ALLI, AMAT

13

-4

-5

+14k

28

LLORENTE, SIGGY, MANE, KING

28

AGUERO, STERLING, CAPOUE, PHILLIPS

0

-12

+16

+32k

57

56

103

+13k

TOTAL

216

So what are the main takeaways from that lot then? Well, I’m actually pleasantly surprised at the results for a start. On 70% of the occasions when I have indulged in a points hit I have earned an overall net gain. In total, it has garnered me an extra 103 points. To relate that directly back to FPL rankings, I am currently sat at 111k, 106 points off the person sat at 5k and 84 points off the one at 500k. Clearly, a 100 point swing either way in FPL can be huge.

Touching on what I said earlier about including the captain points gained, I have delved into it and in total from just 4 captains whom I brought in, within those hit decisions, I got 94 points - which in itself is quite telling. On 3 of those occasions it proved to be the correct decision as that player was the highest scorer on my team. On the other occasion it cost me 14 points net (GW26 – Kane vs Lukaku). There are an awful lot of what-ifs and maybes in all of that though.

I have included the overall ranking gain or loss as an indicator but really that’s all it is, as it’s obviously determined by the team as a whole and cannot be isolated down to just the transfer decisions involving hits.

So that’s my mini-analysis on my own hits this season, but that’s not to say that my good fortune is the norm across the board. Introspection and FPL managers is not a combination which always goes hand-in-hand, or indeed a healthy option if you value your sanity, but the above was a cathartic experience and I would encourage you to do the same, but maybe only if you are as obsessive about FPL as I am.

Hits have clearly worked for me but I’m certainly not advo-

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cating that everybody goes all gung-ho on them. They have to be calculated and measured and, most importantly, have sound reasoning behind them. It’s a strategy which I may well be utilising more in the future. Then again you could easily argue that better planning ahead would negate some of those hits, and I wouldn’t dispute that for a second, but sometimes situations just present themselves unexpectedly. That’s my excuse anyway, and I’m sticking with it!

‘ACCEPTABLE HITS’ I spoke in the introduction of guilt-free hits. By this I have two scenarios in mind, both of which are very similar, and the blank GW28 was certainly one of those. In GW28 there were only four games and as such most of us were faced with reduced numbers. Some people planned ahead and fielded a full 11 players, but in all honesty that felt a bit like cutting your nose off to spite your face both before and after the GW itself, as you were limiting yourself to players from just eight teams, and not particularly great ones at that.

If you were like me and took a measured approach you probably had about 6, 7 or 8 players with a game. Now in this scenario I don’t mind the odd ‘guilt free’ hit as I tend to view it more as a -2 than a -4, simply based upon the theory that if they play 60 mins then we are at least at a starting point of being 2 up on a blank space producing zero. It’s up to them then to produce something to put you in a positive

PHOTO BY: JOSHJDSS

position but it always feels more achievable from the lower starting point.

I’ll use Josh King as a perfect example of this working out in GW28, but equally, there were plenty of examples of it not working out too (take your pick out of Mane or Llorente, to name a few!). King was actually my last hit last week and one I wouldn’t have taken had Matty Phillips not been ruled out late in the day. Leaning on both the -2 theory above, plus the ‘calculated risk’ theory I talked of earlier, I decided that a slightly out of position cheap midfielder who was on penalties and up against a leaky defence was worth said risk. After 9 minutes in and a missed pen in the bag I wasn’t feeling like it was the best decision in the world. In the end, of course, he ended up grabbing an improbable hat-trick and left the hit bank on him alone 14 points to the good.

On the other hand, and this is always the risk with taking hits, Mane and Llorente both similarly warranted inclusion given their form and the opposition at hand. Mane managed to leave me at -2 on his deal and Llorente -3 on his.

Them’s the breaks.

This doesn’t just apply to blank gameweeks though. It could apply to any week really. That’s if you are unlucky enough to find yourself with less than 10 players playing due to injury or suspension. Personally I’d always roll the die on a hit for an 11th, with an open mind to the consequences. The ceiling is always much higher than the floor, as the above examples demonstrate. You just have to hope

to find your King and not your Mane.

DOUBLE GAMEWEEKS Finally I will touch on taking hits for the double gameweek fest that we are about to enter. The DGWs have been announced, so we have adequate time to start planning our tactics around the upcoming fixtures. If you’ve been shrewd enough, you may also have a few chips tucked away to aid in your navigation through these weeks. Trevor will expertly explain how to use these later in the magazine, so I’ll refer you to his passage (pages 30-33) for when and how to execute these valuable tools. If the above perfect storm doesn’t apply to you, however, then you may have to consider taking some hits to capitalise on the DGWs. The danger with DGWs is the dreaded ‘R’ word. You are looking at two tasty fixtures and thinking that you can replace a player using the ‘guilt free’ theory, ‘knowing’ the incoming one will at least recoup an extra 2 points on your hit, if nothing else. And then boom, Pep leaves Sterling out completely. You get the picture, and may well have recently sworn at it too.

On the whole, though, if the fixtures look right and especially if you expect your transfer to play both games, these hits are probably small chances worth taking. Ironically, this is often even more applicable when looking at the ‘smaller’ or ‘less fancied’ teams. It’s a glass half full approach but once again, I repeat, the ceiling is always higher, if you chance your arm on the right guys.

19

THREE CHIPS BETTERTHAN ALL OUT ATTACK

I

f the Fantasy Football Magazine was a physical entity, this would be the page you’d choose to rip out upon realising the Andrex has depleted. The rest is too valuable. Nobody wants to wipe their arse with pages of priceless advice and insight, but this article? There’ll be very little advice, or insight, I’m afraid. Perfect arse-wiping material.

It’s no secret that All-Out-Attack is the John Terry of the FPL chips: pretty useless, in desperate need of replacement and despised by the masses. In this article, I’ll discuss the merits of three potential alternatives, in the hopes that our wise FPL overlords take note and act accordingly.

PHOTO BY BEN SUTHERLAND

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Rainy Night in Stoke The Rainy Night in Stoke chip doubles the returns of any player playing away at Stoke. It is an undisputed fact that Stoke is the hardest Premier League team to visit - both in terms of difficulty and actual hardness (indeed, Ryan Shawcross’ forehead is used by local jewellers across Stoke for all of their diamond-cutting needs).

Activating this chip gives you the opportunity to double the points of up to 3 players; the only downside being that those 3 players will only score 2 points each. Still, it’s better than a kick in the head.* *Unless you’re Ryan Shawcross, in which case you’re unlikely to even notice a kick to the head.

The Huth, the Whole Huth, and Nothing but the Huth As implied, this chip would give the manager the option to field 11 Robert Huth’s in place of their usual starting line-up prior to the start of a gameweek. When combined with a Bench Boost, THTWHANBTH would give the manager 15 Huth’s to use at their disposal - a powerful tool indeed.

Other options include The Only Way is Schlupp and It’s all About Mee.

Actual Chips This one is just a bag of chips. Or a cone. Perhaps even a tray. I’m not particularly fussy about the receptacle, to be honest. The Premier League has the money to send out at least 4 million bags of chips to FPL managers across the globe, and in a post-Brexit world in which the UK’s farming industry is at best vulnerable and at worst doomed, this can only be a good thing. To put it another way, would you give up your All Out Attack chip to solve world hunger? Precisely.

Tongueinloftuscheek is the founder of the Football Against Poverty (FAP) society, and considered by at least 3 people to be one of the leading thinkers in the FPL industry.

He would like to use this opportunity to officially state that, whilst his name may suggest otherwise, his tongue has never been within a 3-metre radius of Ruben LoftusCheek. Any claims to the contrary, including by Loftus-Cheek himself, are false until proven otherwise.

21

GAME THEORY:

A NEW WAY TO PLAY FPL

There are some FPL managers who spend their time studying which player to bring in, and there are others who spend their time studying the game itself. Seyum Berhe is the latter, and here he introduces some of the basic principles of game theory to demonstrate how they can be used to change the way you play FPL.

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A

ccording to Investopedia, game theory is defined as “a model of optimality taking into consideration not only benefits less costs, but also the interaction between participants”. Whilst it’s an important part of being successful in business, it can also be vital in making the right FPL decisions.

Accepting that variance is a huge part of the game is a good start. There is enough variance involved with playing FPL that anything can happen in any given week – that’s what keeps us hooked, after all. No matter how well constructed we think our squad might be, there is always the chance that come the end of the gameweek, our hopes and expectations will feel like a distant memory compared to the reality. Of course, this is part of the appeal of FPL – the unpredictability – but it can be hugely frustrating too.

Ultimately, as much as we wish it were different, there is a high probability that one of our players will under-perform, no matter how much research we do or how confident we feel when finalising our selections.

Whilst there are obviously both positive and negative effects of variance, there are certainly ways to lessen the negative effects significantly.

Avoiding ownership of multiple players from one team is the most effective way to do it. By diversifying our line-up, we lower the risk of negative variance as much as possible. An example of putting this into practice can be taken from Gameweek 28, which was shortened due to teams playing in the FA Cup. With only four Premier League fixtures that weekend, there were a large number of FPL managers who rushed to transfer in multiple Liverpool players (indeed, most of these managers took a points hit to do so). And what happened? Firmino didn’t play because of an injury, Coutinho was subbed off in the 61st minute and the likes of Mane and Lallana failed to make an impact. The projected points total for these Liverpool players did not materialize and was, in fact, far wide of the mark.

Leaving ourselves fully exposed to FPL variance by depending on players from the same team is best avoided.

In playing FPL, we task ourselves with 38 gameweeks of problem solving and decision making. Naturally, these tasks can be accomplished using a mix of strategies. Using optimality and game theory is one such strategy. Optimality, in a nutshell, is the practice of calculating the best ratio of benefits to costs from the available options at our disposal. In FPL, of course, nobody would benefit if every fantasy squad was performing at an optimal level. That means it is necessary that some teams will prosper whilst others will suffer.

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Recommended Reading The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction – Nate Silver The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives – Leonard Mlodinow Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction – Dan Gardner & Philip E. Tetlock Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder – Nassim Nicholas Taleb Rock-Paper-Scissors: You vs. the Computer – New York Times

PHOTO BY: RONNIE MACDONALD

Zero-Sum Game That’s because Fantasy Football is a zero-sum game. In other words, the gain or loss of the participants involved is equally balanced by the gain or loss of the other participants in the game.

Of course, FPL involves a lot of participants, but the principles of mastering a zero-sum game remain exactly the same. The fundamental basis of winning in a zero-sum game is to predict what your opponent does in order to choose the best corresponding option for yourself. As there are so many opponents, the task is to predict what the majority of those opponents will do.

Therefore, selecting riskier choices can often be beneficial because other FPL players tend to go for safer fantasy players. It may sound obvious, but if the majority of FPL players pick safe fantasy players, it stands to reason that going with riskier choices will often have a better pay-off, for a (usually) lower cost. By using ownership statistics to our advantage, we can make this a lot easier.

Mastering Ownership Percentages Whilst it’s not the most talked about subject in the game, it’s important to understand how you can use ownership percentages when making almost any decision within FPL. If you were to take a full season and condense it into just one gameweek, when selecting your team you would identify who the high ownership players and captaincy options are, and then adopt a strategy of stick or twist.

Sticking would involve blocking the majority by also selecting a high ownership player, whilst twisting would instead mean gambling on a low ownership player who you think has the potential to score higher.

Identifying which high ownership players to stick and twist on is obviously no easy task, and requires an equal measure of luck and foresight.

Our tactics to deal with this differ depending on when in the season we’re employing them. In the early stages of the season it’s more important to hold high ownership fantasy assets as it ensures you rise and fall with the majority and also build some important team value. Ignoring highly owned players in the early stages of the FPL game will be counter productive and isn’t an advisable strategy.

As the season progresses, however, managers are faced with a dilemma. How do you avoid creating a template team without disowning your highly owned assets? After all, you eventually need to differentiate your FPL squad with lower ownership players who are risky but come with a good upside.

With a quarter of the season remaining, now is a good time to move towards this. I’m not suggesting that you should completely fill your fantasy squad with low ownership players, rather that you look towards a more equal spread of low and high ownership. As I established earlier, this also helps us to reduce negative variance too.

There are, of course, some exceptions to this rule. If you’re top of your mini-league, then a conservative and perhaps superior tactic would be to continue blocking your opposition by sticking with a high percentage of high ownership players.

It all depends on your priorities.

For example, let’s imagine you project Player A (5% ownership) to get 24 points and Player B (22% ownership) to get 24 points too. In the long run, Player A with a low ownership will

help to vary your lineup and move you toward a higher overall rank, and up your mini-league too.

Another concept, that of recency bias, comes into play here.

Recency bias stipulates that managers are more likely to base a player’s form on the most recent set of fixtures, as opposed to a larger scale of matches that would be more reflective of their true value. Colloquially, we might call this knee-jerking! Avoiding recency bias is not easy, but crucial for long-term success in FPL. Making contrarian judgements like this is a valuable skill that develops through time and experience of the game. A contrarian move would be to avoid recency bias by selecting a low ownership player who has flown under the radar.

Let’s look at an example to illustrate how we can make contrarian decisions to capitalise on the “wisdom” of the crowd. In Gameweek 27, due to Manchester City having a double gameweek, their players were popular fantasy picks. Applying the strategy we’ve just outlined, the contrarian choice was to pick Stoke City players - who also had a DGW themselves but cost just a fraction when compared to City players. As we now know, it was the Stoke players - particularly the defenders - who triumphed over the course of the DGW. They, despite our best judgement, would’ve been the better picks. Game theory exploits the tendencies of human nature and rewards those who go against their natural inclinations in order to counter the majority strategy.

An Uncertain World Sample sizes are small in FPL, player statistics and their value can be exaggerated by one or two fluke plays. There are only 38 games in a season (compared to 162 for baseball and 82 for basketball, for example), so there aren’t as many games to allow statistics to even out across a longer time-frame. We also have to contend with imperfect information, such as false injury rumours or fictional internal club disputes, which further cloud our judgement when trying to make informed decisions.

In Professor Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book “Antifragile”, Taleb argues that, since we live in an extremely uncertain world, individuals need to make their professional and personal lives not only less vulnerable to randomness and chaos, but intentionally positioned to take advantage of it. Taleb writes, “some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty.”

In fantasy NFL, Professor Taleb’s idea of fragility to volatility and external shocks were noted around 2013 when forming a new NFL fantasy approach called “Zero RB”. Some NFL fantasy managers, recognising that injuries were the big external shock in NFL fantasy and that running backs were more at risk from them, chose to avoid the position altogether while drafting NFL fantasy picks.

FPL managers can also apply Taleb’s concept of “antifragility” to make gains from disorder. By using a contrarian strategy that considers player ownership and our own natural biases, we can put ourselves in a position to capitalise from the disorder and unpredictability that football, as a sport, is so loved for.

Ultimately, things will always get chaotic for FPL managers.

With popular fantasy choices picking up injuries, suspensions or simply underachieving, disorder is inevitable. The question we must ask ourselves is how we can be in a position to gain an immediate and significant edge as a result of this disorder.

Game theory, it appears, is the answer.

25

FIXTURE TRACKER EXPECTED GOALS & CLEAN SHEETS

Essential for formulating any long-term FPL strategy, Clarke Hutchison applies Antti Hyppänen’s unique algorithm to the season’s remaining fixtures to deduce which teams have the highest statistical chance of scoring goals and keeping clean sheets.

T

he fixture tracker is designed to help you identify the teams with the best clean sheet and goal scoring potential for the rest of the season. Whether you’re aiming to gain an edge by identifying the favourites or looking to solidify your initial gut picks, you can do so with these statistical forecasts, focusing on clean sheets (CS) and goals per game (GPG).

Peter delved into the topic of making perceptive transfers using statistical data earlier in the magazine and this fixture tracker can be used as an accompaniment to that approach, encouraging managers to focus on long-term goals rather than short-term gains.

These averages set the foundation for future transfers, and will prevent you from stumbling at the first hurdle by constantly making the next gameweek your central focus.

Unlike traditional trackers that break down schedules fixture-by-fixture, we’ve opted to display a singular average which forecasts each team’s expected performance as a whole.

26

The first stage of arranging these findings was to assign teams a rating, based on their expected goals and clean sheet probability between now and the end of the season. We looked at a wide range of previous matches (10-100 fixtures for each team) in order to identify continuous trends as well as sharp and temporary abnormalities.

For example, oddities like Leicester’s title claim and home/away performance trends are taken into account, whilst head-to-head data is also recovered. Once again, the ratings are revised accordingly to keep these irregular developments under balance.

Finally, the data is fine-tuned using Poisson Distribution.

This acknowledges in-play actions, such as the opening goal setting the stage for a match’s anticipated outcome.

What sets this formula apart from the average bookmakers, who predominantly focus on exact figures for single matches, is the fact that it’s targeted towards the FPL community, where comparisons between clubs are more relevant and revealing.

CHELSEA MANCHESTER UNITED TOTTENHAM MANCHESTER CITY LIVERPOOL ARSENAL SOUTHHAMPTON BURNLEY EVERTON MIDDLESBROUGH LEICESTER STOKE WEST BROM HULL SUNDERLAND WEST HAM WATFORD BOURNEMOUTH SWANSEA PALACE

4.71 4.65 4.37 3.53 3.20 3.01 2.78 2.55 2.53 2.52 2.25 2.16 2.12 2.04 2.02 1.90 1.79 1.56 1.54 1.04

CLEAN SHEET FORECAST

2.30 2.11 2.00 2.00 1.90 1.50 1.47 1.45 1.32 1.32 1.31 1.28 1.20 1.18 1.11 1.07 1.06 1.03 1.02 0.70

PROJECTED GOALS PER GAME

LIVERPOOL CHELSEA ARSENAL TOTTENHAM MANCHESTER CITY EVERTON MANCHESTER UNITED WEST HAM LEICESTER SWANSEA STOKE SOUTHAMPTON WEST BROM BOURNEMOUTH BURNLEY WATFORD SUNDERLAND HULL PALACE MIDDLESBROUGH

Liverpool have asserted themselves as one of the most lethal attacking sides in the league, averaging over two goals per game. As we approach the final stretch of the season, this healthy goalscoring average looks set to continue with their sights set on Champions League qualification.

They have already proved capable of scoring in difficult circumstances this campaign with impressive goal returns versus Arsenal (7), Chelsea (3) and Tottenham (3). In light of this, their offensive players, Mane being integral, can be relied upon for consistent returns during the run in.

It’s no surprise that table-toppers Chelsea feature near the top for expected goals too. Like Liverpool, they have averaged over two goals per game and we expect this to be sustained for the remainder of the season.

Antonio Conte’s decision to alter his formation to accommodate FPL favourites such as Eden Hazard and Marcos Alonso in advanced positions has played a huge part in honing their attacking prowess, creating more opportunities in front of goal for the London side. Their unwavering GPG average is a credit to the Italian’s tactics, and looks set to continue on a similar trajectory.

The North London clubs, both of which are projected to score a couple of goals per game for the duration of the season, complete the top spots. Arsenal’s attacking form has been sporadic since the start, whilst Tottenham’s credentials are somewhat dependant on Harry Kane’s fitness.

Whilst these sides have proved clinical from open play this season, they both fall inside the bottom half of the table for goals accumulated from set-piece situations.

Chelsea top the bunch in terms of clean sheet potential.

They have already recorded shutouts in almost half of their matches, the most in the league this season. Our tracker expects them to complete the last eight gameweeks in similar fashion with clean sheets in 47% of their games.

Once again, a lot of praise must go to Antonio Conte. His committed approach in transitioning to three at the back has been a master stroke, with his centre-back partnership of David Luiz, Gary Cahill and Cesar Azpilicueta the stalwarts in his system.

Manchester United are forecasted to secure the third highest amount of clean sheets in the closing stages of the season with their additional double gameweek fixtures bolstering their chances of this materialising.

The advantage of investing in Mourinho’s backline is the reality that they’ve still got a lot to play for. We can all agree that Jose detests the Europa League, so his top priority will be to stand strong at the back and punish his competition’s mistakes.

Tottenham’s defence has been the most resilient since the start of the 2015/16 season. They have conceded fewer goals than any of their opposition over this period, with White Hart Lane being something of a fortress.

There’s no mistaking that their long-term defensive statistics are at a title-contending standard, it’s just a matter of translating this into results, especially during the latter stages of the season.

This concludes our analysis for expected goals and clean sheets. As thorough as it may be, there is always a leap of faith required when making decisions solely based upon an algorithm.

Much like the underlying stats in Peter’s article, the fixture tracker should be used as an additional instrument in the workshop of tools at your disposal. We hope it opens your eyes to a fresh approach and aids in your planning for prolonged FPL success.

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LESSONS LEARNED FROM PREVIOUS DGWS George Santayana once said that “those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it”. With this in mind, Jamie Reeves embarks on a study of past double gameweeks, and unearths some remarkable trends that we should all take heed of for the rest of this season.

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avigating the double gameweeks has been an integral part of FPL success since the birth of the online game. Whilst we mostly see fixtures rescheduled due to domestic cup commitments, over the years we’ve been gifted DGWs due to freak weather conditions and even riots in London.

So despite The FA Cup’s best efforts to limit future DGWs by scrapping replays, it looks like they’re here to stay, in one capacity or another. Therefore, it’s a good idea to learn from the mistakes made in previous years or you could find yourself repeating them.

The statistics within this article are taken from DGW 34 & 37 from the 2015/16 season, and DGW 31 & 37 from the 2013/14 season. We’ve selected these two seasons as they had the highest amount of DGW fixtures from the last five years.

Don’t transfer out your in-form players on the basis of them only having a singular fixture.

We’ve all been there...Wildcard activated and the Bench Boost chip ready to be slammed down on the table for the

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impending double gameweek. Why have 11 DGW players when you can have 15? Why have Alexis Sanchez when you can have Glenn Whelan who has TWICE the amount of time to return the points?!

It sounds so obvious doesn’t it? But you just wait until you’re presented with that opportunity.

Whilst it does make sense to ‘load up’ on double gameweek players if you’ve saved your Wildcard and Bench Boost to play one after the other, we still highly recommend that you hold on to your in-form players or those who have a high ownership percentage.

In Double Gameweek 34 & 37 last season (2015/16) the highest scoring players were Sergio Aguero (26 points) and Lamine Kone (21 points) respectively, who both had just one fixture during the double gameweek.

Whilst we’re not suggesting Lamine Kone was either inform or highly owned, we’re stressing that the highest scoring players won’t necessarily be those playing twice. In fact, from our data sample, 27.5% of the top 20 highest scoring players had just one match in DGW31/34 combined and 35% in both DGW37 fixtures.

Count of Highest Scoring Players

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13

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11 Title, Top 4, Europa

Relegation Battle

Nothing

Left to Play for

The correlation between DGW37’s highest scorers and league motives

Players with something left to play for in the league are more likely to return points than those who don’t.

Whilst you’d hope that thousands of pounds per week in wages falls into the category of ‘something left to play for’, there’s a clear correlation between the highest scoring DGW players and league motives.

75% of the top 20 highest scoring players from DGW37 in both 13/14 & 15/16 where either involved in the relegation battle or pushing for the title, top four or European football.

The relegation battle is usually a good source for points when it comes to the final double gameweek of the season.

From our sample range, we’ve seen inspired performances from the likes of Sunderland (both years), Aston Villa & Norwich when faced with relegation.

Unbelievably, Sunderland players actually account for 25% when you combine the top 20 highest scoring players in DGW37 from both years.

Whilst the sample range is too small to pull a forecast of this year’s proceedings, it’s fair to say that you shouldn’t necessarily favour the big clubs and popular players in the final stages of the season.

Be wary of rotation in double gameweek 37 Year after year we watch managers load their teams with double gameweek players only to watch them play less than 100 minutes across both fixtures. A congested fixture list will lead to an increase in rotation, so it makes sense to approach the final DGWs with an understanding that nobody is safe.

Those of you who still have your Bench Boost chip intact might want to consider playing it in DGW34 as opposed to DGW37 in order to increase your chances of accurately selecting players who will play on both occasions. If you are saving it until the penultimate gameweek, it may be wise to again look towards teams who have ‘something to play for’, as their managers will be less prone to rotation if the fixture needs to be won.

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ANALYSIS:

WHEN TO PLAY YOUR

REMAINING CHIPS

With double gameweeks around the corner and a plethora of advice out there about how to use your chips accordingly, Trevor Gordon provides a definitive breakdown of the best options available.

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ight, firstly a promise.

No chip puns. No wedging (sorry) in references about them being soggy, needing salt, vinegar or ketchup, and definitely nothing fish related. I’m better than that. (Warning: there may be other puns).

With that out of the way, I’m going to outline some thoughts on the best use of your FPL chips, including your Wildcard (if you still have it) for the final 8 weeks of the season. It’s not a complete disaster if you’ve already burned your chips, though much of this article will be irrelevant to you, I’m afraid.

Great Expectations So we’re finally here, getting prodded by the sharp end of the FPL season at last. A time when FPL addicts across the globe get giddy with excitement over three, simple letters: D G W. The

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prospect of a DGW was always thrilling, but since the addition of the chips last season, the thrill now borders on hysteria.

(An addendum: when talking about “the chips”, I refer only to the Bench Boost (BB), the Triple Captain (TC) and the Wildcards (WC – not to be confused with the toilet). I have made a conscious effort not to include the All Out Attack (AOA) chip which, let’s face it, is the backing vocalist of this Supergroup.)

Some love them, some hate them but it looks like the TC and the BB chips are here to stay. Personally, I have always been somewhat sceptical of their value. In my opinion, due to their initial novelty and some mathematical misunderstandings, they have become overrated among us FPL obsessives. It may seem odd to frame an article about chips by discrediting their importance, but it is essential that we understand the actual importance of these tools if we are to successfully look at how best to use them.

Triple Captain Fails?

Let’s start with the TC chip. Were you one of the lucky ones who netted an extra 78 points from your Aguero TC last year in the now legendary DGW34? Well, no, you weren’t. Because nobody did.

In real terms, what the TC chip actually gives you is an additional 1 x the score of your chosen captain for one GW in the season. Remember, you need to own a player in the first instance to give them the TC armband. Moreover, it’s safe to assume that your Triple Captain would’ve been your regular captaincy choice that GW anyway. So, in reality, all you’ve really done is changed a double score to a treble score on one, singular occasion. That may be stating the obvious, but it’s absolutely crucial when weighing up the strength of the TC chip. In real terms, a TC total score of 60 (which would be a fantastic return, let’s not forget) is often perceived as a +40 point gain, rather than a +20 point gain.

It’s this misunderstanding that explains why many who played their TC on Aguero in GW27 this season were subsequently lamenting it as a season-defining disaster. 27 points this season compared to 78 points last season feels bad, because it appears as though you’re 51 points worse off. In reality, providing you owned and captained Aguero in both instances, the Argentine would’ve scored you 52 points last season anyway. So in terms of return on the TC chip, you are only worse off than last season by a measly 17 points. Aggravating? Perhaps. Season-defining? Definitely not.

Let’s not forget that 26 points is a superb return on a Triple Captain. The margins are often far smaller, and thus the gap between success and failure is far narrower than we tend to realise. I’d be more than happy if my TC chip gained me an extra 20 points in a GW, so whilst 9 points was disappointing compared to what could have been (damn you Jordan Pickford and Lee Grant) it’s only a net-loss of 11 points compared to what I’d consider a more than impressive TC haul.

To put it another way, you’ve almost certainly lost far more points in a GW by picking the wrong ‘normal’ captains over the course of this season.

Of course, we want to give ourselves the biggest and best probability of scoring maximum points, so this chip really needs to be used on a big hitter with a decent DGW to maximise your chances. Picking Aguero vs Sunderland and Stoke was a fine pick that returned a little below expectation. It’s certainly not a season-ender.

Bench Boosting Brilliance So to the BB, and again I’m going to be a spoilsport and suggest that its value is often overrated. Did you enjoy an epic DGW34 BB last season? Did you hit the heady heights of 200+ and leapfrog your way to the top of your mini-leagues?

No, me neither. I did, however, enter the nosebleed territory of 196 for my DGW34 BB. But again, there is a mistaken tendency to credit my use of the BB as the sole explanation for that whopper of a score. Allow me to explain.

The BB chip gives you 4 extra players to gain points from.

Generally, these are your 4 weakest players, which, for most teams, consist of:

• A GK (usually a cheap one at that) • 2 affordable DEFs • A trusty 5th midfielder or, in some instances, a 3rd striker I can’t recall exactly how many points my ‘bench’ earnt me during last season’s BB, but I know it included a risky Fosu-Mensah (1 point) as well as Mignolet and the Liverpool rotation fiasco (lest we forget). Sanchez and Aguero would have been in most of our teams that week regardless of BB, and, assuming you captained one of that pair, you would’ve earned 75+ points from just 2 players regardless of whether you used your BB or TC chip. That’s where the bulk of my points came from.

In fact, quite conversely, the BB may have persuaded you to drop players you shouldn’t have – perhaps the likes of Alli, Alderweireld, Fuchs etc. who were among teams that were only playing once (more on this in a moment).

So, what does a realistic expectation for the BB chip look like? Well, whilst it won’t get you 200pts on its own, it can certainly contribute to maximising the potential returns on offer in a DGW, and therefore, despite its exaggerated value, I do feel it should be considered the most important of the 3 new chips.

Whilst there is a huge degree of luck in ‘nailing’ the TC from the options that present themselves over the season, planning the BB in such a way that those aforementioned 4 bench players are DGW players with reasonable fixtures will give a very strong chance of a 20 to 30 point return. Even if your 4 bench players contribute very little, if they play 60 minutes in both of their games over a DGW you’re looking at an additional 16 points just for turning up. Remember, the difference in points gained in our rather extreme TC example was just 17 points.

If your bench turn in even a couple of clean sheets between them, and your mid/fwd can muster up a goal or an assist then you could very reasonably expect to push 30pts in supplementary points, which I’d see as an excellent return from a chip. With a slice of luck you may well hit the jackpot and score 40 additional points or more.

Finally, a note of caution.

Having those 4 DGW players on your ‘bench’ does not mean you have to have 15 DGW players. Indeed, as many of us learned last year, sacrificing strong SGW players to ensure you have a full squad of DGW fixtures may well be a foolhardy strategy. Whilst we know there will be more solid DGW options this season (last year both of the inform teams chasing the title didn’t have DGWs and many dropped Spurs and Leicester players as a result) there will still be on-form big-hitters with only one game who we need to be careful about dropping.

In summary, I would suggest you think long and hard about dropping a key SGW player in pursuit of the Mythical 15x2 BB Spectacular™.

They Don’t Make Them Like They Used to There is another useful chip which, I daresay, is a little underrated. I am, of course, referring to the trusty WC – which is frequently taken for granted by too many managers.

The standard strategy (with the second WC no longer be-

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ing restricted to January) is to retain it for optimising the preparations for the late season DGW bonanza. For once, I’m not going to be contrarian about this (at least not completely).

I agree that if you’re planning a DGW BB then having a WC to help shape your team is the optimum strategy. However, surprise surprise, a word of warning is again needed here.

It’s important to recognise that a well-used WC at any time in the season should be followed by a conspicuous boost in points and relative squad stability for at least 4 GW’s. For that reason, whilst it’s a luxury to be able to use a WC in conjunction with the BB chip, clinging grimly to it whilst your team falls apart will probably cost far more than the potential DGW gains. For this reason, using your WC early doesn’t mean you’ve screwed it up. It might well have kept you in the race.

When to Pull the Trigger So far, we’ve established that the TC and the BB need to be taken at face-value. The WC is always useful, but shouldn’t be locked away until April at the expense of your squad. Let’s not deify these chips people – they are but mere mortals.

Now, how do we go about using them?

Well, I’ve already suggested that the TC and BB are best used during a DGW for the maximum points potential. Irrespective of specific DGW fixtures, what we’ll be focusing on here is the method. That leaves the WC, and it’s the WC that really needs some thought.

As with any discussion on when one should play a Wildcard, it has to be acknowledged that the answer is probably different for everyone. This may not be very ‘box office’ and may disappoint those who like blanket advice and sweeping statements, but as noted above, playing the WC when your team needs it is the best way to maximise the points this chip will bring you. Let’s have a look at possible WC opportunities, partly based on a poll I recently conducted on Twitter.

Option 1: Early doors. GW29-30 70% of 2,200 respondents still had their WC intact with 14% saying they planned to use their WC during this timeframe. In my view, this is a surprisingly high number considering the opportunities between now and the end of the season. There are certainly some pros to Wildcarding now, the most significant being that it allows us to maximise the WC boost over a longer period, but there are some issues I see with it too.

The main one being that, though we may know the DGW schedule, we certainly don’t know what the position or form of those teams (and their players) will look like by the time they come around. Matt Phillips and Junior Stanislas are perfect examples of how quickly things can change: essentials for BGW28 preparation just a few weeks before, but mostly taken out for hits by GW27.

Perhaps more crucially, we don’t know what the league table will look like and what the various sides will be playing for. Teams who are ‘on the beach’ are notoriously susceptible to sloppiness and rotation late in the season whilst those locked in a dogfight for glory or survival can be late DGW heroes.

As ever, it’s important to be flexible. In GW30 we head into one of the international breaks we FPL managers love so much. With a lot of us probably carrying a little dead weight

PHOTO BY: JOSHJDSS

already, I suspect a few casualties from international duty may justifiably push some of us to press that button.

Option 2: In the Middle. GW31-33 Even if you’ve successfully made it through the international break unscathed, there could be a few factors which could precipitate some WC action in these interim weeks.

By this point, many managers may feel their team needs reshaping ahead of the DGWs, with some deciding that it’s best to lay down the foundations early on. Meanwhile, the landscape of fixtures starts to change, as bigger teams begin to see more favourable clashes coming their way.

Even the most determined managers will have to fight off the temptation to WC during these weeks, and if circumstances justify it then it may well be the time.

Option 3: Into the breach. GW33-34 So you’ve made it. You held that baby through thick and thin, and now you’ve reached the first of the end-of-season DGWs. Hopefully your team hasn’t suffered too much as a consequence. Congratulations! A massive 40% of the managers who responded to my Twitter poll intended to Wildcard around now – by far the biggest proportion. Now it’s pretty simple. If you still have both BB and TC to play you are probably going to play one of them in DGW34, most likely your TC, with your 4 bench players picked with the bigger DGW37 in mind.

With that being said, it may not be totally out of the question to use your BB here - even though it is the smaller of the DGWs. Remember, the BB gives you 4 extra players.

If you are set to play with a smattering of SGW players and the rest with doubles, it may feasibly work out that GW34 presents a better BB option than GW37, giving you the freedom to play a strong 10 or 11 DGW players in DGW37, along with a more favourable TC chip too.

Option 4: LastMinute.Com. GW36-37 Our final category was selected by 13% of Twitter users, though I daresay that may have been higher had I conducted my survey after the DGW announcements. With such a big DGW37, it appears holding on to your WC until the very end may prove more fruitful than originally thought.

The obvious benefit here is knowledge. You know exactly who is on form, exactly what’s still to play for, and exactly how many players in your mini-league have already exhausted their chips. Saving your Wildcard until DGW37 puts the ball firmly in your court, but at a cost. The sacrifice is that you only have 2 GW’s to enjoy the fruits of your reorganisation, which could, ultimately, be negligible. It is a gamble, and if it doesn’t work, you have a whole summer to lament what might’ve been.

Of course, it could be glorious too, and would be a super stylish way to swoop in and seal that mini-league title. Hopefully someone somewhere pulls it off, but I suspect it won’t be me.

And finally....

I hope you enjoyed this article, and wish you good luck with the whole exciting affair. Unless you are in a minileague with me, in which case ignore all the above, play your TC on a defender in a SGW and BB in GW38. Please.

#FPL COMMUNITY ADVICE We approached some of the most renowned Fantasy Football blogs and Twitter personalities to get their take on the final weeks of the season. Here are the collective jewels of the community’s wisdom, all in one place.

@FantasyFooty247 “The remaining weeks are all about winning my mini-league now. I’m a tad behind as we speak but the DGWs are key to winning it and planning and preparation for them will be my focus from now on. That is usually the difference in these situations. Fail to prepare, prepare to fail and all that.

I’m sat on a Wildcard still, along with a Bench Boost, so timing those two right will probably make or break my season. Assuming I execute it right and I establish a lead then the remainder will all be about checking my opponent’s moves and probably blocking them off for the final few weeks. It’s needs must when it’s so close so if I need to do some blocking moves that aren’t necessarily advantageous to overall rank then I’m happy to do them in order to win my mini-league.

If I’m still behind come the final few games then I will be doing the exact opposite and picking a few punts to hopefully capitalise on what they don’t have covered.” @FFPundits “One aspect of FPL that can often go overlooked is the importance of a solid defence. Explosive attackers are all well and good, but a well-honed defence can be the differential that separates you from the masses.

As the season draws to a close, we at FFP think the top teams are going to tighten up their back lines as much as they possibly can. This is the time for edging out narrow wins against stubborn teams, and the likes of Conte and Mourinho have turned that into an art.

It’s time to invest in one or two premium defenders to ensure those clean sheet points continue to trickle in as the season comes to a close. If you haven’t yet, bite the bullet and add a Chelsea defender to your ranks. Further support from the likes of Spurs, Man Utd or even Man City will reap rewards in the long run.

In a season where attacking options have been largely inconsistent, it is the defense we should be turning to in search of those additional points. Ultimately, it’ll be money well spent.

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@FPL_Updates “There are a few key areas where these bragging rights can be won (or lost), be that double gameweeks, differentials or chips (notably the Triple Captain, Bench Boost and Wildcard options).

Firstly, with the double gameweeks coming up, it is imperative that these are utilised to the full. Not only will your players play twice, but they also have double the time to pick up any goals/assists, so with good planning, you can really make the most of these.

Secondly, we have differentials. It’s obvious that if you have the same team as your mini-league rivals, then you will struggle to make any ground on those in front of you.

However, there is a need for a balance between having those that are considered ‘must haves’ and those that you can go without, potentially in exchange of a differential who can gain ground on those around you.

Finally, we have chips; key here is to use them wisely. A popular strategy will be to Wildcard before a double gameweek, filling your team with DGW players, and then hitting that Bench Boost or Triple Captain button.” @FantasyYIRMA “Pick Flamini”

@FPL_Fly “With free rein to write on whatever FPL subject I wish, I pondered long and hard on how best to use this exposure in the first edition.

A strategy on how best to finish the season in style? A wild stab in the dark on a differential to bring in? An essential transfer to make?

Well, why not all of the above? One name keeps screaming out to me to bring into my team for the last quarter of the season…TROY DEENEY. Since entering the FPL arena last season, he has averaged a goal every three games.

His recent record indicates that he is improving his ratio, and therefore he may still have half a dozen goals left in him between now and the end of the season.

While many will look elsewhere for a mid-price forward (Defoe, Gabbiadini) I believe it is “Fat Drake” who will finish top of the pile in a straight shootout from GW30-38.

He’s affordable, isn’t widely owned and has a decent run of fixtures that include a double gameweek.” @FPLCoach “When making transfers from this point forward, especially if you’re looking to take your mini league, it’s important to keep an eye on your opponents’ lineups as you may need to adapt your strategy based on your situation.

If you find yourself sitting above the chasing pack then you have the opportunity to play it safe and take less risks to protect your position.

If you’re feeling especially competitive (and cruel) you could look to employ ‘blocking tactics’ by getting players your rivals already own to prevent them gaining ground.

If you’re less fortunate, it’s time to forget about the highly owned stars of the game, differentials are your only saviours now. You need to find those high scoring, low owned players and get them in.

It’s a massive challenge but there’s loads of points on offer so it can be done.

You might also want to consider a different captain in the odd gameweek here and there too.

Whether you’re leading or chasing it’s shaping up to be an exciting end to one of the most competitive seasons yet and I for one can’t wait!”

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@FPLHints: “It may not sound too obvious, but “enablers” are the cornerstones of FPL. Inevitably they will be the first or final pieces in your squad’s jigsaw puzzle. They are the cheapest players in your squad, which in turn free up funds and let you buy a considerable number of premium priced players. Any so-called cheap player can in essence be an enabler, but my definition is as follows: “Any player in your squad that has a starting price of £4.5M or less” I colloquially refer to them as “pound shop” players due to their budget price tags. The best ones tend to be goalkeepers and defenders as you can potentially use them in your XI, whereas a midfielder at £4.5M will probably be defensively-inclined (thus irrelevant) and strikers at that price almost never start on a weekly basis.

As a whole, enablers are good bench fodder. They will rarely sting you with lost points on the bench. If you do start them and they do well it’s an unexpected bonus. Therefore, appreciate these forgotten players and cherish their purpose in your squads!” @CalleditFPL Be it the second Wildcard or any of the two “cool” chips (sorry AoA, but you suck) - all should propel you up the mini-league and overall rankings, providing you use them wisely to set your team up for the remaining DGWs. Had you cashed in the majority (or all) of your chips in a beer-induced spending spree - do not despair! With proper long term planning (well, more like mid-term planning at this point of the season) you can still have a reasonable number of DGW players that are bound to turn that frown into a lovely green arrow.

A tactic that I love to deploy toward the end of the season is to focus on teams that still have something to play for. Either those fighting to win the league, for a European spot, or even those in danger of being relegated. In fact, relegation team stars are my favorite picks as people normally steer clear of them. The question is just “Who to pick?” from those teams. And that, dear readers, is a question I will look to answer with my picks until the end of the season.” @FPLGeneral “As we enter the final quarter of the season, we will begin to see the cream rising to the top as the more patient/experienced FPL managers play their second Wildcard and remaining chips.

I’ve endured a frustrating season so far after the highs of the previous two campaigns, but with a Wildcard up my sleeve as well as my Bench Boost chip, I’m not giving up hope of making a late push towards the top 10k (currently 68k).

Wildcarding the week before a double gameweek and then playing the Bench Boost chip in the double was a major factor in my success last season and I’ll be using the same strategy again.

It’s important to focus on teams who have something to play for as we approach the end of the season - whether it be the title, a European place or a team fighting for survival. The relegation threatened sides will offer great value in the upcoming double gameweeks.

A couple of players who are in my thoughts for the final quarter of the season are: Patrick Van Aanholt, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Dele Alli & Jermain Defoe.”

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PHOTO BY: RONNIE MACDONALD

THANKS FOR READING Thank you for reading the first ever Fantasy Football Magazine. We hope you enjoyed it as much as we enjoyed putting it together.

Producing something that has never been done before is a tricky process, and one that can always be improved. If you have any thoughts or feedback on things we could be doing better, or content you’d like to see in future editions, we’d be incredibly grateful if you could take a few moments to fill out our survey. fantasyfootballmag.com/feedback Next season’s aim is to release five editions to guide you through the most pivotal moments in the FPL calendar, including a comprehensive preseason guide that will seek to lay the foundations for your best season yet.

It’s content you simply won’t find anywhere else, with a constant focus on the fundamentals that separate the consistently great FPL managers from the briefly fortuitous ones.

The future of The Fantasy Football Magazine is rooted in the fantastic writers who contribute their valuable time and expertise, without which this edition, and later editions, would be little more than an exclusive mini-league (albeit an incredibly enticing one) and some attractive formatting. It is our firm belief that such time and expertise deserves adequate reward; in an industry that so often undervalues its writers, we want to do exactly the opposite.

To put it simply, if we want to continue to produce industry-leading content, we want to be able to pay our industry-leading writers. They deserve it.

With this in mind, our intention is to charge a small amount for future editions. By “a small amount”, we’re not talking the cost of a meal out. We’re not even talking a pint’s worth. More like a coffee. A small coffee. A McDonald’s Coffee. Your back-of-the-sofa change will cover our costs and pay our writers to continue doing what they do best: making FPL that little bit easier for us all.

For the truly committed managers, we’re also considering printing a limited number of physical future editions, so you have something to wipe away the tears of joy that often accompany FPL success.

We wish you all the best for these final weeks of the season. Remember to fill out our feedback form with any thoughts you might have, and keep your eyes and ears peeled for the next issue.

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Before this magazine comes to a close, we’d like to thank a few (ok, maybe quite a lot of) people who have helped bring this project to life.

First of all, we’d like to extend our gratitude to the wonderful Amanda Heredia who has worked tirelessly to turn a series of word documents into a creative and professional looking magazine.

The writers, for producing the finest content around, working extremely hard to meet deadlines and make necessary amendments.

We’d also like to thank all of the websites, pundits and forums who have actively shared our magazine with their audiences. There are too many to name them all but we’d like to specifically thank: @TheFantasyPL, @FantasyFooty247, @FFPundits, @FPL_Updates, @FantasyYIRMA, @FPLHints, @FPL_Fly, @FPLCoach, @FPLGeneral, @CalledItFPL, /r/FantasyPL, The #FPL Twitter Community.

The ever-so-generous photographers of Flickr who listed their images as royalty free (non-commercial use): Joshjdss, Ade Oshineye, Ben Sutherland, Ronnie Macdonald, Crystian Cruz.

Last, but certainly not least, a massive thank you to everybody who has downloaded this magazine, helped spread the word and supported the project.

Jamie, James & Clarke

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PHOTO BY: RONNIE MACDONALD