time to Prepare for your best FPL season yet
JULY 2017
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ANALYSIS
Last season goes under the stats microscope
The Big Bang:
How FPL began Pages 4-6
n o s a e s e r P ! l a i c e Sp Back to basics with James Egersdorff
Are Championship players worth the investment?
Pre-season fixtures I Pricing Structures I Formations I Exclusive Leagues
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JULY 2017
EDITION 2
Foreword few months ago, we asked FPL fans to dig into their pockets and support the first ever magazine dedicated to this enrapturing past-time. You are currently looking at the fruits of their generosity. We remain ever grateful and humbled by the support, without which this publication would be little more than a few scrawlings in a tea-stained notepad, next to a shopping list and a reminder to take the bins out on Wednesdays.
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Thank you, sincerely. The pre-season is a turbulent time for any fantasy manager. The heady mix of speculation, apprehension and excitement can prove too much for some, especially in the sweaty heat of the summer. Mini-leagues are formed, old rivalries are rekindled, and squads are chopped up and sewn back together like a colourful (and far more expensive) Frankenstein’s monster. “It’s alive!” we’ll exclaim, proudly surveying our team and vowing not to touch it until August 11th. A few hours later, we’ll realise we have a front-three comprised solely of
Huddersfield players, and resolve to start rebuilding once more. This edition of FFMAG, the pre-season special, is intended both as a remedy to that pre-season tinkering and a wholehearted encouragement of it too. Exploring your options is part of the fun; it can even be therapeutic. Equally, it can be infuriating, patience-sapping and ultimately fruitless too. If nothing else, we hope this edition will give your tinkering some substance. In typical FFMAG style, we’ve spent the last month knee-deep in the murky river of fantasy football content, panning for the golden nuggets of strategy, tactics and theory. With contributions from sports psychologists, expert pundits and arguably the best FPL player in the world, we don’t want to hoard our wealth of wisdom, we want to share it. We hope it enriches your pre-season like it has enriched ours. The FFMAG Team
4 7
What’s New? Changes & Updates To The Game
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Wildcards, Team Value and Hits: Part 1 of our 16/17 Study
16 18 19
Starting 11: The Future of Fantasy Football Reader's League Win A Mug
Back To Basics: The FPL Fundamentals we Should Never Forget
Director
Jamie Reeves Managing Editor
James Copeland CFO
Aleksander Rosnev Layout Design
Mirko Nestorović Online Content
Luke Maunder Social Media
Mark McGettigan Pictures
PA Images Printed by
Swallowtail Print Thanks to
Indiegogo, Richard Holt, Tom Coe, Sam Cooke, Clarke Hutchison, Leon Cantwell, Ash Balfour, Ryan Cook, Adam Alcock, Dave Smyth, /r/FantasyPL and the Twitter community
CONTENT The Big Bang: Where FPL Began
FANTASY FOOTBALL MAGAZINE
General
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Analysis: What Can We Learn From Pre Season Fixtures
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Transitional Value How Will The Newly Promoted Team Cope?
34
Pricing Structures: Where You Should Be Spending Your Money
38 40 42
Draft Fantasy: The True Draft Experience Psychology The Home Advantage FPL Horoscopes: What Does Your Fortune Hold?
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The XXXXX
Big Bang
Where FP
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JULY JULY 2017 2017edition issue 2
It’s difficult to conceive of any fantasy sport successfully functioning offline. As David Wardale explains, however, the original innovators of the game would go to extreme lengths to satisfy their fantasy football cravings; sacrificing time, money and a huge amount of paper in the process
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ummer is the ultimate fantasy vacuum. It is a wasteland bereft of footballing meaning beyond the occasional international tournament and, for the truly hardcore, Fantasy Eliteserien – the Norwegian version of our beloved FPL. I've been lucky enough to have my void filled, so to speak, by work on a book about fantasy football. That and a truly extraordinary summer of political shenanigans here in the UK. I am not, by nature, a political animal and I think I share this state of mind with the majority of the population. Politics is a messy business in which operators offer black and white solutions to any number of shades of grey. The whole shabby process is usually as attractive as a Chuckle Brother and considerably less amusing. Not this summer. For a country cosily wedded to the notion of 'Keep Calm and Carry On' – except when it snows, the sun shines or Katie Hopkins tweets – this has been a time of unprecedented turmoil. Researching the origins of fantasy football – and by that I mean real football, not the steroidal shoulder pad-fest that is gridiron – has at least kept some of that turmoil at bay.
A Labour of Love It is true that the game was popularised and, to a degree, monetised by British pioneer Andrew Wainstein, founder of Fantasy League Ltd and the administrative power behind the country's first mass market game at the Daily Telegraph in 1994. Andrew's early feats were Herculean – this was the age, remember, when there was no internet, so disseminating scores and standings involved using the postal service - as he explained in an excellent 2014 interview with the Fanfeud blog. “I wrote a program to crunch the scores, but there was a report program that printed everything off at about 7pm after the last games. It
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took over 12 hours to look through all the leagues. Eventually my body clock was set to wake up every three hours, because that was how long it took for the printer to run out of paper. “In the morning I’d pack a bunch of envelopes and take it to the local sorting office.” Andrew readily admitted that the inspiration for his game came from America, where they'd been creating and tinkering with fantasy sports since the late 1950s.
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players from which just five score each week. Managers go head-to-head, with only goals scoring fantasy points. The complexity lies in the set-up. Managers come and go, but the teams remain regardless. So a new boss can take over at a club, inheriting all the players and the budget their predecessor had built up. They can stick with the squad already in place or twist and haggle with their rivals to bring in fresh blood. The league has just eight teams and, according to Bernie, a long waiting list of people wanting to come in and take over management of each club. As a result, should a manager finish bottom of the league, they face a good old fashioned re-election to remain in the league. “If you've done nothing and sat on your arse for the season you'll be sacked. But if you've tried your best you'll probably survive,” explains Bernie. “We could have 16 teams no problem. We could have a second division there's that much demand. If you want to be involved, you become an assistant manager and wait your turn.” Bernie expresses surprise that his game has endured for so long and bewilderment that some of the players take things so seriously that 'they offer each other outside, that's happened once or twice'. So we salute you, Bernie Donnelly – fantasy football pioneer. Unless, of course, someone else has a tale to tell. The book I'm writing is due out in 2018, so there's plenty of time for you to tell me of someone else who can claim to be the One True Creator. I'm also very keen to hear your stories of triumph and disaster and, in particular, tales of mini-league forfeits for the losers, fantasy obsession and any times that playing FPL, or any other game, has had realworld consequences. n picture by: Danny Lawson/PA Wire/PA Images
Fantacalcio Andrew was not the first to adapt the American model for the truly global game that is football. That honour goes to Italian tech journalist Riccardo Albini, who dreamt up 'Fantacalcio' in the mid-1980s. I am currently working on an interview with Signor Albini, so you'll have to make do with excerpts from an online chat he did which is confused and improved in equal measure by the fact that it had to go through Google Translate to make it vaguely English. THE PAPA OF ALL THE FANTALENATORS GETS GENESIS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE GAMING GAME blasts the headline, followed by this intro: “Meet Riccardo Albini for me who, like you, I grew up in bread and Fanta calcio is an unforgettable experience. The intuition of this genuinely playful mind has influenced the history of a lot of calciofile fans over the past twenty years and it is undeniable that both the supply and the use of the calcium product have had to take account and adapt to this phenomenon extraordinarily national popular and disruptive such as 'Fanta calcio'.” Things continue in this understandablish vein for a while, peaking at: “So can we say that Fanta footballer is a better sportsman? Your Fantabomber piercings your heart's team: exult, cheat or anything else?" "Let's say that he exults under the table and I hope that Milan will win the same. Certainly the Fanta footballer knows soccer much more than others because it is Also known for minor players who would not have noticed before.” 'Exults under the table' is a perfect way of describing many of our Fantasy experiences. I mean, who aside from a diehard Chelsea fan has ever truly delighted in the existence, let alone performance, of John Terry. But stick the old race-baiting Englishman in your team and his every point has you exulting under the table for gameweeks ad infinitum. So the roots of today's fantasy boom rest in 1980s Italy.
Perhaps Premier League managers honed their craft through early versions of the fantasy football game
He devised the game in school having been inspired by England's World Cup triumph. Fifty years later, unlike the England team, it's still going strong But its true genesis came more than a decade before even that - in the Garden of Eden that is the Merseyside borough of Knowsley.
50 Years of Joy Bernie Donnelly – labour councillor and retired economics teacher – is our Fantasy God, creating His game in 1966 and rolling it out to the world, or more accurately seven of His mates, in 1971. Bernie's game is simple and complex all at once. Each team has a squad of 15
You can reach David and tell him all about your FPL story on Twitter @Davvawavva
JULY 2017
edition 2
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Free Hit What to digest from this new portion of chips ou have to hand it to FPL. The community complained, and they responded. The largely useless All Out Attack chip is now history, and in its charred ashes rises the phoenix that is Free Hit, a new, exciting looking (yet poorly named) chip. Free Hit is essentially a one week Wildcard. You may change your entire team before a certain gameweek, but as soon as the round is over, your squad is reset to the one you had before the chip was used. Like all new chips, the correct strategy hasn’t quite been ironed out by the boffins yet, but the potential is mouthwatering. Here are some early ideas on how to most effectively use this chip.
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Gameweek 31
The Big Blank Gameweek
On the weekend commencing March 17th, the Premier League will co-exist with the FA Cup quarter finals, and due to the stubborn laws of space-time, players can’t be in two places at once, meaning that any teams still
enjoying a cup run will not be featured in FPL this week. Last season saw as many as six fixtures out of the scheduled ten postponed in this week, with all of the ‘top 6’ except Liverpool not featuring, meaning that pretty much every fantasy manager was in deep trouble without proper prior planning. The popular tactic for a BGW used to be slowly gentrifying your team with players from Bournemouth, Swansea, West Ham etc that you would seldom normally use, who can be a pain to own once the BGW is over. With the introduction of Free Hit, this week can be managed easily. Take last year, for example: instead of wasting free transfers on Andy Carroll and Nacer Chadli in the weeks leading up, you could simply forget about your real team for a week and select 11 of the most lucrative players that happen to have a fixture. This is the most popular and obvious initial tactic, and for good reason. The fear of Free Hit is that you may miss out on points
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The triumphant announcement of a new chip spurred an inevitable flurry of analysis, excitement and fear. Now that managers have had time to get used to their new FPL accomplice, Luke Maunder examines the far-reaching implications
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from your original squad by using a temporary one, but in a BGW this risk is reduced because plenty of your players won’t have a fixture at all.
Gameweek 33/34/35
The Small Double Gameweek
Using a chip during a double gameweek is essentially the ‘don’t eat yellow snow’ of FPL advice: everyone knows it, and if you don’t you won’t make the same mistake twice. The reason the big double gameweek (i.e Gameweek 37 of last season) isn’t being considered for this chip is purely because of the rule that two chips can’t be played in the same gameweek. The big double gameweek should be reserved for Bench Boost, or at very least Triple Captain in order to maximise points potential, so the use of Free Hit in the biggest DGW is strongly dissuaded. However the smaller gameweek could be a good shout. Last season Gameweek 34 saw Manchester United, Crystal Palace and Middlesbrough play two fixtures a piece. Managers flocked as many players from these teams beforehand as they could, which ultimately
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was a waste of a few free transfers. With Free Hit, you could simply shoehorn 3 players from each team, and include 2 more SGW players who have appealing home fixtures. This tactic is great in theory as you will suddenly have 9 DGW players (potentially a full XI if four or more teams have a DGW) where most will be lucky to have 5. There are downsides, however. The small double gameweek is often reserved for the Triple Captain chip, and as stated above, using Free Hit would negate this. Also, there is a case of ‘putting all your eggs in three baskets’, if the teams that play twice fail to score and concede in both games, then you
It could be an ingenious, unorthodox method to get ahead of your rivals, and more importantly, a lot more fun
may as well not have bothered. Technically, I suppose, the same risk and reward applies with all aspects of the game.
Gameweek 19
or any week in which just 3-4 teams have great fixtures
Finally we have the hipster‘s choice. It’s both fun and terrifying going off-script and trying to climb the ranks through the backdoor, and playing your Free Hit during a normal gameweek could be the way to do it, providing the fixtures sit right. To offer a real illustration, I’d like to divert your attention to Gameweek 19 of this year (Dec 23), in which the following fixtures will be played: → Arsenal vs Liverpool → Everton vs Chelsea → Man City vs Bournemouth → Southampton vs Huddersfield → Burnley vs Spurs
As you can see, the no doubt popularly owned teams Arsenal, Liverpool, Everton and Chelsea lock horns this week, however
JULY 2017
EDITION 2
CAN ANYONE FEEL A DRAFT COMING? With the launch of the FPL Draft gamemode, we asked our resident expert Steven Riley to provide a breakdown of the basics. As it turns out, the draft really is a breeze hile draft fantasy football has been popular in certain circles for a while now, a large number of the four millionstrong FPL fanbase have never played before. This is intended as a no-nonsense guide to a game I’ve been enjoying for years.
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l What is FPL draft?
City, Saints and Spurs all have massively appealing games. While most teams will have to hope that their Coutinho’s and Courtois’ will defy the odds and return against tough opponents, using Free Hit here means that you can temporarily remove these players and emigrate three players from each of the three aforementioned sides (a triple Spurs defence against Burnley is mouthwatering), and then pick two from anywhere else. It’s a risky tactic and means that the inevitable BGW could be a very bad weekend for you having already spunked your shiny new chip, but it could be an ingenious, unorthodox method to get ahead of your rivals, and more importantly, a lot more fun.
Final words So those are just a few suggestions on how this chip can be used, but ultimately I think we can all agree that it’s a positive and exciting addition to the game. It will be interesting to see who will become the ultimate beneficiary of FPL’s newest toy. n When are you planning to play your Free Hit chip? Let us know on Twitter: @fantasyfootymag
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- Draft shares many similarities with the traditional game, with managers scoring points based on the performance of the players they’ve selected. The big difference is that only 1 manager in a league is able to own each player. The game can either be set up as a private game between friends (2-16 players) or a public league (8 players). So how do you build your squad? Draft day. l How does draft day work? - Draft day is when all of the players in the league get together to pick their sides for the upcoming season. Each manager has a turn to pick a player, and once a player has been picked they are unavailable for the rest of the draft. The draft can take a number of guises, although the most common of these is the ‘snake draft’ (a term which will be familiar to those who follow NFL). In a snake draft, a random (or previously chosen) order is decided before the draft takes place. Each player picks a player in sequence for the first round, but this order is then reversed for the second round. Drafts in the official game must be completed before the Gameweek 1 deadline of Friday 11 August, 18.45 GMT. If you’re unable to attend the draft, your team will be auto-drafted based on a pre-created watchlist or au-
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se Our No-nonsen Guide to the new FPL format
tomatically by the site. l How else does FPL Draft differ from traditional FPL? - Aside from the big difference already discussed, draft has some other key differences worth mentioning. There are no player prices, meaning you’re able to fit in any of those premium strikers, midfielders and defenders if you manage to snag them before your mates. Another difference is the lack of a captain, making the game more focused on building a squad that can provide points throughout. Then of course, there’s the business of transfers. l Transfers, free agents and the waiv-
er-wire - Transfers can be made in two ways. The first of these is free agents. These are players who were not selected from the list during draft day. These players can be swapped into the side in the Free Agency mode, which takes place 24 hours before the deadline. Players who have been taken out by other managers, as well as those added to the game after the draft, do not instantly become free agents. Instead, they go into what is called the waiverwire. This is a pool of players who can only be picked up with what is known as a ‘waiver request’, where you propose a transfer. 24 hours before the gameweek deadline, these requests are then processed by the site. Waiver priority goes to the lowest-ranked team, with other teams getting the player they have chosen if he is still available. Multiple waivers can be proposed but must be prioritised in case one doesn’t go through. In the current iteration of the gamemode no trades can be made between managers. The draft format lends itself to the ultimate fantasy experience, where mini-league rivalries and cut-throat tactics are at their most prominent. Plan well and have fun. See you on the other side. n
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Wildcards, Team Value and Hits Part 1 of our y d u St 7 1 / 6 1 e v i s mas ay be over, it has left m on as se 7 /1 16 e th Though luable lessons for FPL behind a plethora of va part 1 of the most In e. at pl em nt co to s manager , eason study ever seen comprehensive post-s dings of three huge fin e th ds en bl ke la B Peter ue e of an intriguing, uniq surveys to make sens ing FPL season and ultimately challeng
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JULY 2017
EDITION 2
he great achievement of the information age in which we live is also its greatest curse: the volume of recorded fact and collective knowledge continues to outstrip the individual’s ability to absorb it. Humility allows us to wonder at the things we don’t know and treat every day as an opportunity to learn, but ego tells us to shrink our world and embrace the certainty of what we believe to be true; better to be the ruler of a fake empire than adrift in a sea of incomprehensible knowledge. The FPL community on (amongst other places) Twitter is for the most part a wonderful network to be involved in because it is largely an acceptance of collective humility. Although it may not seem like it in the impassioned ‘I told you so’ aftermath of an afternoon’s set of fixtures, the majority of people are engaged with the community because they accept that they do not – they cannot – know everything about the players, clubs and fixtures that make up a Premier League season. There are those bold enough to put their reputations on the line every week by recommending players to the group, but many of these would shirk at the tag of ‘expert’, preferring the term ‘enthusiast’ lest it gives the impression that they have some magic formula that makes them right most of the time.
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The Wisdom of the Crowd The active conversations that these managers are involved in throughout the week mean that their recommendations themselves are usually the synthesis not of ego but of collective thought and perception accrued over time: what is commonly referred to as ‘The Wisdom Of The Crowd’. Many managers have player selection methodologies (including me, see Episode 1 of Fantasy Football Magazine), but no one can predict with any accuracy the exact sequence of events in every game. There are, after all, an infinite number of variables. The tactics we use on a week-by-week basis (e.g. which players to bring in, who to captain) are about exploiting probability, and for that the community can be invaluable at validating your assessments of the probabilities. Contrary to the tactical decisions about which players - whose probabilities of success fluctuate on a daily basis - to include in your squad, the game-playing strategy – such as attitude towards point hits for extra transfers, or whether to monitor team value, for example – is more hardwired into our philosophy. Indeed, it’s likely we don’t always realise that these strategies are factors in our thinking as they are the foundations upon which our gameplay is built. Also, unlike the tactical decisions, the assessment of whether a strategy is right or wrong can be much more difficult to quantify and take a lot longer to assess. So in the spirit of always questioning my assumptions and embracing the ‘Wisdom Of The Crowd’ philosophy, I surveyed FPL managers throughout the 2016/17 season to understand how they played the game, with the intention of finding out whether a type of mindset can yield more success. The collective knowledge of the FPL community gathered here has scrutinised my strategic assumptions, tested my logic, and provided me with new information with which to approach the new FPL season. In the spirit of community, I share here some of my key findings. Methodology and Sample I published three surveys in total to Google Forms, and embedded these in my blog (www.mathematicallysafe.wordpress.com), promoting them on Twitter only. I understand that some generous
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souls in the community pushed news of this out further into the web, for which I am thankful. ● Pre-season survey – 302 respondents ● Mid-season survey (GW19) – 254 respondents ● Post-season survey (GW38) – 278 respondents A quick note on the samples before I continue. It is logical to assume that not all of those completing the pre-season survey would finish the FPL season, and it might also be assumed that those compelled to complete the post-survey around Gameweek 38 might be doing so because they are pleased with their seasons (why go through a miserable season to the end and then share that grief in a survey?). Below are the average point totals of the respondents: ● Pre-season – 2174.3 ● Mid-season – 2202.7 ● Post-season – 2203.7 This data lends credence to the first theory that there were some drop-outs from the pre-season survey, but the theory that postseason totals would be higher than the mid-season ones is unfounded. It is worth keeping these in mind as you read this report. I asked a series of questions all designed to understand how managers approach the game from a strategic perspective. Three of these questions are highlighted below. In each case, the metrics have been cross-referenced with others that measure the success of the team and strategy. I’d like to publicly offer my thanks to @FPLStatto for lending his expertise in sourcing the additional data.
Are you comfortable taking point hits by conducting multiple transfers in a single gameweek? Arguably the most contentious recurring debate in the FPL community is whether it is wise to take point hits for extra transfers or not. I have had conversations with FPL managers of all persuasions in this regard: those who prioritise getting in the right team over the cost, those who believe the four point cost to be sacrosanct, to those who have converted from one side to the other. I asked about managers’ attitudes to taking point hits in each of the three surveys. The question and options were: Are you comfortable taking point hits by conducting multiple transfers in a single gameweek? ● I don‘t like taking point hits and actively try to avoid it ● Sometimes it is necessary, but I try not to make a habit of it ● Yes, I don‘t mind if it means I can get the right players in Generally speaking the community is quite conservative when it comes to taking hits, although it is noteworthy that they get more liberal the longer the season progresses; those who are entirely comfortable taking hits start as a 15.2% minority but by the time the season ends the share has jumped to 36.7%. This suggests that most managers start the season with the intention of preserving their earned points, but then the realities of the season take over and the desire for the form players that one doesn’t own becomes a tactical priority. Despite everyone having an opinion on whether hits work or not, the truth is that it really depends on the circumstances affecting your team. Based on the teams within this survey, there is no statistical correlation between the number of hits and final points totals, although interestingly the majority of managers that take a lot of hits will have a better rank. However, when we look at how the attitudes towards hits are correlated with performance, we see that for the most part those who actively try to avoid hits are the ones who on average performed better, as evidenced in Figure 2 (the exception being mid-season respondents, where the average points were relatively even across all groups).
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What is especially notable in Figure 2 is that whilst the ceiling of points fluctuates by group, the floor of points favours the conservative in every instance; put another way, representatives of each group do well, but those who avoid hits will not fall as low as those who embrace hits (note: for more on the minimums and maximums, see the summary at the end of this article). This pattern is repeated in the group of respondents who completed all three surveys. In this group there were eight managers who steadfastly tried to avoid hits (with varying degrees of fidelity, it should be noted) and they had an average point total of 2269.9, which was higher than those who sometimes took them (2221.9) and those who didn’t have a problem with them (2202.3). As a brief aside, the mid-season anomaly here is possibly due to the survey being published around Gameweek 19, which was during the busy Christmas period. With the relentless schedule of games, predicting rotation behaviour of managers and little time for analysis between games it is likely that the normal rules of operation for some managers were suspended during this period as they battled to keep on top of things, although this is just an unproven interpretation. Key Insight: data suggests that planning to actively avoid hits is the best mindset with which to approach the FPL season. However, and somewhat paradoxically, don’t be dogmatic about it if you are struggling because evidence suggests that there is no correlation between actual hit totals and overall points.
Wildcard strategy pt.1: Are you planning to use an early Wildcard (e.g. up to and including Gameweek 4)? There was much debate pre-season about the need to play your first Wildcard early. Evidence showed that the opening few weeks from previous seasons were when the price changes were at their most volatile, primarily because there are so many early surprises regarding new tactics, players, starting line-ups, etc. Managers – whose teams have great variety early on – all scramble to sell/ buy players that have taken them by surprise. The theory went that if the early weeks are unpredictable, then accept that you will Wildcard early and plan for just the first few gameweeks. Taking gameweek 4 as the cut-off for an ‘early’ Wildcard, I posed the following question in the pre-season survey: Are you planning to use an early Wildcard (e.g. up to and including Gameweek 4)? ● Yes, I have set up my team with this strategy in mind ● No, I will aim to use it later than this to set up the second half of the season ● I haven’t planned for when I will use my first Wildcard As Figure 3 shows, the community was divided; 57.9% had a plan for their first Wildcard, but only a third had set-up their squads with the early Wildcard in mind. Many (42.1%) had not factored it into their strategies. Later in the season (in the post-season survey), 126 of the original 302 respondents returned to answer the question ‘Are you happy with how you used your first Wildcard this season?’ Of the managers who had said in the pre-season survey that they didn’t have a plan, only 53% said they were happy with the performance, compared to 68% for those not planning an early Wildcard and 73% for those who were, providing justification for those who planned in advance. However, if we dig a little deeper into the responses we see something very interesting. If we add a further dimension into the analysis – namely did the managers actually use the early Wildcard or not – we see that those who didn’t play the early Wildcard were happier with how it went for them. Notably, as seen in Figure 4,
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Figu sha
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I don't like t hits taking poin try ly and active to avoid it
those who had planned for the early Wildcard but then didn’t play it early were the happiest (88%) The reason behind this is open to debate, but my interpretation is that by planning for an early Wildcard you are front-loading your team with players who have favourable opening fixtures and so can reasonably be expected to do well; not only do you benefit from early points, but if there are other players emerging who you need, the free transfers can accommodate them and so you save the Wildcard, which feels like a bonus and therefore increases happiness. What is apparent is that having a plan in place is likely to benefit you.
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Wildcard strategy pt.2: When are you planning to use the second Wildcard? The conventional wisdom is to play your second Wildcard to prepare for the end of season double gameweeks. During the mid-season survey I asked: When are you planning to use the second Wildcard? ● I will be using it before the end of January ● I will aim to use it later in the season to take advantage of double gameweeks ● I haven’t planned for when I will use my second Wildcard
Figure 2 all respo: Distribution of p ndents oints by Hit attitu des,
2800.0
Average of Pts
Total poin ts (whole season)
2600.0
Min of Pts
Max of P ts
2400.0 2190.8
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20%
25%
Key insights: For the first Wildcard some cognitive dissonance is apparently required, but planning to use the early Wildcard and then not doing so is seemingly the best way to get maximum satisfaction from the chip. For the second Wildcard, use it to set up the double gameweeks if you can.
Figure 4 : Happin e by Wild card str ss with first W ategy (n ildcard, =126) Do y
33.1 1%
Yes, I have set up my is team with th d in m in gy te ra st
In contrast to the first Wildcard, the preferred strategy for the season is unequivocally to use it to set up for the double gameweeks, and if we count on or after Gameweek 30 as ‘planning for the double gameweeks’, then it is apparent from Figure 6 that those who did so were the happiest. In reality, it didn’t really matter if you had a plan for the second Wildcard or not; such was the effect of the double gameweeks that if you played a late Wildcard you were likely to be pleased with the outcome whatever you were planning to do. However, those who played it before Gameweek 30, especially those who did not have a plan to begin with, were far less likely to be happy with the outcome.
30%
35%
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40%
45%
wildcard lanned for w hen I wil (n=49) l use my first Didn't p lay early WC (n=2 5) The earl y was p layed (n = 24) Yes, I ha this stra ve set up my te am with tegy in m ind (n=4 9) Didn't p lay early WC (n=13 ) The earl y was p layed (n =15) No, I wil l the sec aim to use it la on half o ter than f the se ason (n this to set up Didn't p =28) lay early WC (n=16 ) The earl y was p layed (n =33)
Happy w 1 st WC p ith the erforma nce 53% 52% 54%
68% 77% 60%
73%
13 88%
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67%
▸
16/17 in Stats Do you conduct transfers with team value as a primary consideration? There are undoubted benefits of building team value, particularly later in the season when an extra few million in the bank can mean the difference between your fifth midfielder being Darren Fletcher or Josh King. However, I was curious to know how much team value came into managers’ thinking as the stock market of player prices can be so fast-moving that it can be difficult to retain control of, so I posed the following question in each of the three surveys: Do you conduct transfers with team value as a primary consideration? ● Yes, I actively try to protect my team against falling value ● Yes, I actively try to build value throughout the season ● No, it is not a primary consideration
picture by: John Walton/EMPICS Sport
As Figure 7 shows, the season started with a relatively even split between those who consider team value (52.2% combined) and those who don’t (47.8%), but as the season went on team value became an increasing priority for managers. Of particular interest here is that there was a big increase midseason for ‘…protect my team against falling value’, stealing share from ‘…build value throughout the season’. Again, as was seen in the ‘Hits’ section, we could attribute this to the mid-season chaos of congested fixtures and several players in form at various times this season; when this happens, for some the focus shifts from trying to build team value towards fire-fighting to protect it. What is apparent from Figure 8 though is that those that factor in team value as part of their strategy will do slightly better
Figure 6: Happiness with second Wildcard, by Wildcard strategy (n=143)
Figure 5: Attitude towards playing the second Wildcard, share of responses (n=254)
Do you plan on using your 2nd Wildcard?
I will be using it before the end of January
7.48%
I haven't planned for when I will use my second wildcard (n=20) Played WC before GW30 (n=13)
I will aim to use it later in the season to take advantage of double gameweeks
55% 42%
Played WC on or after GW30 (n=8)
81.5%
75%
I will aim to use it later in the season to take advantage of double gameweeks (n=115)
77%
Played WC before GW30 (n=37)
59%
Played WC on or after GW30 (n=78)
I haven’t planned for when I will use my second wildcard
85%
I will be using it before the end of January (n=8)
11.02%
75%
Played WC before GW30 (n=6)
0%
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Happy with the 2nd WC performance
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
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70%
80%
90%
67%
Played WC on or after GW30 (n=2)
100%
JULY 2017
edition 2
42.0 5%
on average than those that do not consider it a priority. The difference between building value and protecting against it falling are negligible for the most part, although managers who focus on building value edge it in all three surveys. Of the 119 managers who answered all the surveys, 59 answered consistently across all three, and the differences were more pronounced: those who do not see team value as a priority (avg. pts 2186.1) were well behind those who build team value (2255.2) and those who protect against a falling value (2266.2). Key insight: data suggests that acknowledging team value should form part of a strategy, either protecting against a drop or actively trying to build it. Not considering it as a factor can be detrimental to performance.
Summary “We rarely get the future right, but we have to start somewhere. Plans never work out perfectly, but having no plan at all is even worse. It means you have no direction and are forced to be reactive instead of proactive.” – Carlo Ancelotti, in the introduction of ‘Chapter 8: Data’ in ‘Quiet Leadership’.
Any study of this data needs to acknowledge first and foremost that success in FPL is a combination of strategy and tactics; the two are interdependent and influence each other. For example, a plan to use a Wild-
card later can be thrown off when the week-by-week tactics are wrong and the squad needs to be revamped quickly. What this study doesn’t do – indeed, cannot do – is identify the share of importance between the two; however I suspect that it would be weighted heavily in favour of the tactics. The influence of tactics on team performance is apparently evident in the range (minimum and maximum) of final point totals in Figures 2 and 8 because this shows performance that is seemingly independent of strategy. However, by looking at the average points over a range of managers we can get an indication of how different strategies can influence success. The common thread that runs through these three sections is that a successful strategy relies on holistic planning and then retaining the flexibility to work around the framework. We first looked at hits, and those who planned to avoid taking hits had a higher average score. This indicates a level of long-term planning and patience to make use of the 37 free transfers and two Wildcards. It was not always the case that they did avoid hits though, but if the intent is there to plan long-term and the flexibility of mind exists to react to circumstance then the manager is shown to have a better chance of success. It was a similar scenario with the first Wildcard, where the evidence was reasonably compelling that those who planned for the first Wildcard, even if they didn’t follow that plan, were happier with the performance. The second Wildcard data simply showed that one should play it to prepare
15%
10%
5%
0%
20%
25%
30%
35%
45%
40%
for a double gameweek. The final section on building team value also showed that those who planned for it, either with a defensive or proactive approach, scored more points on average than those that disregarded it. What is notable is that these approaches were not conventional wisdom: avoiding hits whenever possible was the least popular strategy; the largest share did not have a first Wildcard strategy; team value was not considered by more than four in ten managers. The most common logic appears to be “it’s a long, unpredictable season, so I need to retain flexibility.” The distinction between this and the strategies which yield the highest average points seems to be the managers’ decisions to put a strategy in place first and then react to circumstance, rather than letting circumstance dictate the strategy. Or, as Ancelotti says, one is “forced to be reactive instead of proactive.” It’s a subtle distinction, but one that appears to be worthy of consideration in the new season based on the data shown here. n Peter‘s huge statistical study of the 16/17 season concludes in August‘s Edition of FFMAG. For more fascinating FPL insight, be sure to follow him on Twitter @artemidorus_1
Footnote: when completing the surveys the reader was informed that there was ‘no commercial incentive’ for the author. In that spirit, the author wishes it to be known that the fee for this article has been donated to Alzheimer’s Research UK.
Figure 7: Attitude towards team value, share of responses
Figure 8: Distribution of points by building team value attitudes, all respondents
Yes, I actively try to protect my team against falling value
2800.0
27.0% 33.1 % 26.5 %
Average of Pts
25.2% 21.7 % 31.5%
n Pre-Season (n=302) n Mid-Season (n=254) n Post-Season (n=278)
2200.0
2227.3 2165.9
2180.9
2179.8
2175.5
2
3
4
2236.3
2223.7
2206.3
2183.8
2000.0
47.8% 45.3% 42.1%
No, it is not a primary consideration 0%
Max of Pts
2600.0 2400.0
Yes, I actively try to build value throughout the season
Min of Pts
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1800.0 1600.0 1400.0
1
5
6
7
8
9
15
Starting 11 The Future of Fantasy Football (No, really.) In-play substitutions, TV compatibility and VR. It’s all a lot closer than you think ootball can proudly boast one of the most popular video games on the market in the FIFA series” explains US-based Starting 11 cofounder Thomas Braun. “And the Football Manager series is arguably the best sporting simulation game in the entire world.
F
So why shouldn’t we have the best fantasy game too?” It’s a question that has shaped Starting 11’s innovative approach to daily fantasy football, culminating in the launch of their all-encompassing live-action fantasy football game this season. We were lucky enough to be given exclusive access behind the scenes at their HQ in Minneapolis, to find out how Starting 11 is changing fantasy football as we know it.
draw comparison between the traditional daily fantasy game and Starting 11’s offering could be considered somewhat disparaging. The most significant and revolutionary departure is the introduction of a live substitution feature. By giving managers the ability to make as many as 3 in-play changes, Starting 11 have not just modified the format; they’ve completely overhauled it. “Users no longer need to hand over the reins after they build a squad and set an initial lineup” enthuses Thomas. “They get to move from the executive box to the pitchside and make tactical changes via substitutions. This is the answer to those infuriating moments when a usual starter is benched or rested, or a player is injured during a match.”
It’s a move that changes fantasy football from a passive game into an active experience. “We want to encourage our users to engage with the ebb and flow of a match. If you’re the type of person who can sense a goal coming, or detect a change in momentum, our live substitutions give you the opportunity to capitalise.”
Build a different kind of team Starting 11 have opted to give their users total financial freedom when building their teams. We were keen
What is Daily Fantasy Football? Daily fantasy football is growing in popularity, and works in much the same way as the traditional seasonlong offering. The key difference is that teams are built each gameweek rather than a couple of times a season, giving managers the opportunity to optimise their teams according to a single set of fixtures. The mastery lies in tailoring your team more successfully than your league rivals. Breaking the Mold Starting 11 have redefined this longestablished template. Indeed, to
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fantasy football magazine
JULY 2017
EDITION 2
sea’s success, is far more valuable under our system than in a more conventional system.” The result is a user-experience that captivates, both during the matches themselves and throughout the weeks leading up to the games. “There’s nothing more frustrating than starting a mini-league with your friends and seeing most of them give up after a few weeks. We wanted to create a game that is as engaging on GW37 as it is on GW1” says Thomas.
to find out their reasoning behind this. “Our testing confirmed that a salary cap actually results in more managers deploying the same lineup” the development team explains. “We’ve found that an absence of budget, combined with our chaos-inducing live substitution feature, leads to wild variation among teams.” The developers have further incentivised team variation through a unique scoring system that compels users to construct a more ho-
Listening to the development team, it’s hard not to buy into their unashamedly bold ambition, but this is far from an unfeasible pipedream
listic lineup. By awarding points for a range of metrics, rather than the headline-grabbing assists, goals and clean-sheets, Starting 11 seek to find value in every position and role on the pitch. How does this work in practice? “Our scoring requires a more intimate understanding of the role of a player within a team, because players can also score points for actions like interceptions, tackles and successful passes. It means a player like Kante, who is instrumental to Chel-
To draw comparison between the traditional daily fantasy game and Starting 11’s offering could be considered somewhat disparaging
A single, integrated reality But the Starting 11 vision stretches far beyond our current horizons. “The next step is an Apple TV app which we’re working on at the moment. This will allow users to overlay the Starting 11 UI over real-time matches on their TV’s, giving them the power to make in-play substitutions using their remote control. We want to transform fantasy sports from a second-screen experience to a single, integrated reality where you can watch the match, see your results and make substitutions all on one display.” Listening to the development team, it’s hard not to buy into their unashamedly bold ambition, but this is far from an unfeasible pipedream. “The technology exists, it’s just not being used” explains Thomas. “We’re currently exploring how VR can work within the fantasy football space too. Soon, our users will quite literally be able to sit in the manager’s dugout and influence a match from the technical area.” Whilst there is a palpable excitement among the team, it’s clear their feet remain firmly on the ground. “Ultimately, it’s about getting the simple things right. We want to introduce a clean, simple fantasy game that veterans and newcomers can enjoy in equal measure.” Whether you play Draft, Daily or Official Fantasy Football, it’s an exciting time. With emerging technology and a wealth of potential, it would be a great shame if fantasy sports are left behind. Starting 11 appear determined to ensure that doesn’t happen. It seems that finally, we may have a fantasy platform worthy of the Beautiful Game. n Download the Starting 11 app on iOS and Android from August 1. Visit their website https://starting11.io to find out more.
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e h t m n o i c . Jo g a m ll a b t o o f y s fanta . e u g a e l e t a v pri
, g u m a e b t ’ Don
! g u m a win Each month, we’ll be sending our manager of the month an incredibly limited edition, personalised mug to show off to their envious mini-league rivals and despairing family members. Fill it with tea, coffee, tequila or simply display it on your mantelpiece, alongside your participation medal for the 1992 Swim-A-Thon and that framed picture of your Nan. To be in with a chance of winning, punch in our league-code <31153-29387> and pit your wits against other FFMAG readers.
: e u g a e L s ’ g u n The FFMAG M e h w p u c a s d e e n o h w e s u ? g u beca m d o o g y l t c e f r e p a t o you’ve g
Back to Basics
James Egersdorff’s FPL record is quite remarkable. After 11 seasons, he has never finished outside of the top 15,000. In fact, he’s only ever finished outside the top 10,000 on two occasions. We invited him to discuss his common sense approach to FPL success
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s somewhat of an FPL veteran, there are a number of strategies I use across a season that enable me to outperform the competition. These strategies can be categorised into two groups: ‘wider principles’, which are elements of my strategy that remain consistent irrespective of the point I’m at in the season and ‘focused principles’, which are more
picture by: Jon Buckle/EMPICS Sport
The Fundamentals we Should Never Forget
A
▸ 19
Keeping it Simple XXXXX
Be your own person - you’re the ma flexible depending on the specifics of a particular situation during the season. A balance between these two types of strategy is essential, but here I’m going to be discussing the former. Wider principles are the key to repeated success, and every FPL manager needs to consider theirs before the season gets underway.
Be consistent One of my primary wider FPL principles is to play the game with consistency. This essentially translates as identifying a strategy, executing it and not deviating from it. For example, when faced with a dilemma over which player to start, I’ll always pick the player with the home fixture. This is because I know that, over a season, teams playing at
20
home will win more games and score more goals than teams playing away, thus increasing the likelihood of my player scoring positively. If I apply this rule consistently, there’s an increased probability my overall score will be higher - even if it doesn’t work out on a particular gameweek. It’s about avoiding the ‘chase’ for points - that constant second guessing as to which players will outscore the other on a particular gameweek. Having a watertight rule eliminates the pain of deliberation and gen-
My strategy does not follow any mathematical algorithm approach... that’s all well and good, but it doesn’t factor in real life
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erally always results in a surplus of points come the end of the season.
Understand the game To succeed at FPL you firstly need to understand the mechanics behind accumulating points. Not only ‘how do players score points during a match’ but appreciating that you have 38 gameweeks and 11 chances within each gameweek (plus the captaincy selection and chips) to score as many points as you can. As each gameweek passes, you have fewer opportunities to build up your score before the season comes to an end. It’s therefore crucial to maximise your points tally each and every gameweek. This is exactly why I seldom take a points hit to make multiple transfers.
JULY 2017
edition 2
Keeping afloat of the pre-season build up is a challenge, says James, but nothing beats watching the matches and studying the upcoming fixtures
picture by: Peter Byrne/PA Archive/PA Images
More than just a numbers game My strategy does not follow any mathematical algorithm approach i.e. player X has had 20 shots on target this month so is projected to score next week. That’s all well and good, but it doesn’t factor in real life. The player might have an important European game midweek, so despite these amazing statistics, player X might not even be on the pitch for the next Premier League game on Saturday. You need to plan ahead, being careful to think about the games outside of the Premier League and how they could impact team selection and player pitch time.
manager, it’s your team Every manager begins a gameweek on a score of 0 so by costing yourself points you’re already gifting your rivals a precious advantage. Ultimately, FPL is a prediction game: there are no guaranteed outcomes, so each week you need to give your team the highest probability of getting a strong score. You might feel you can recover from a points hit if your new signings are form players with favourable fixtures, but these players could also underperform so as a strategy,
I don’t use any high tech analytical tools... I utilise all of the real life data that is available to everyone: watching the matches!
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taking frequent hits is too unreliable and not an example of ‘playing with consistency’. Unless of course your strategy is to play with consistent risk!
Watch and observe Choosing players who are selected to start every week, aren’t injury prone and play an important role in their (ideally successful) team is easier said than done before the season gets underway. I study the upcoming fixtures, read match reports and do my best to familiarise myself with the starting line-ups for each team. I don’t use any high tech analytical tools. Most importantly, I utilise all of the real life data that is available to everyone; watching the matches!
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Get into the minds of the managers I believe that as an FPL manager it’s essential to put yourself in the shoes of a Premier League manager to work out who they’re backing to fire their team to success. Who do they trust in taking a crucial penalty? Which defenders would they encourage to bomb forward? Are they basing their strategy on keeping clean sheets or outscoring the opponent every week? If you identify which players are helping each manager execute their winning strategies then you’ll go very far up the rankings. Be your own boss Lots of people ask me for help with their team. ‘What should I do? Who should I sign? Who is the best captain this week?’. Whilst advice of this nature can be useful, it seldom increases your overall rank. You’re actually making it easier for the better players to stay on top by not bringing your own ideas to the table. I much prefer to hear someone’s logic and justification ‘I’m looking at a player for these reasons’. If you’re unable to generate your own ideas then you’re always going to be a below average manager, as you’ll never be able to break away from the chasing pack. Be your own person - you’re the manager, it’s your team. I’m sure Conte, Mourinho, Klopp et al value the opinion of others but won’t base their team decisions on them, so you shouldn’t do so either. n Want to know how James gets on this season? Follow his 17/18 campaign in his monthly column for FFMAG
21
A Little Somethin
Lane Dang Tran Simon Jones Ma Peter Blake Charlie Roberts Steven Wilkinson Jasen Daniel Nash Jonathan Lancaster Ricardo Grazina Nick Mike Bolander Sandor Lehoczky Antho Stow David LeGood Seb Reilly Kenny Quinnell Joel E Lee Seng Kaspian Jago William Wilson Joe Hardwell Edward Phillips Ben Clayton Mitchell Stirling Callum Clark Kwee Espen Larsen Jim Critchley Cristian Ion Erik Kjorrefjord Ashford John Griffiths Dimitri Van den Reeck Anders Haggemark Sherif Salem Tom Bedford Nick Martin Pau Lewis Davey Fawzy S Graeme Armstrong Mantas Stasauskas Nick Gascoyne Tore Kalleberg Orlando Lopes Karl Simkin Stuart Reeves Kim Kobayashi Marc Brandli Robert David Fraser Ross Shorland Daniel Sherwood Andrew Evans Bristow Sam Clarke Connor Hughes David Fraser Simon Maas Dan Dean Hart Jacob Jull FPL Nicholas Wright Wright Viktor Cronin Michael Jones Richard Debbie Adams Velikov Chris Denyer Saleem Siddiqui Richar Joe Polechonski Knott Christopher Tom Sanders Anthony Dosanjh Timothy Harvey Dr Daniel Barry Andreas Kyprianou Victor A. Ponce Kevin Jatin Arutla Jamie Lowe Stephen Joseph Rutter Lars Bjoland Averby Owen Spence Kehoe Jimmy Gustafsson Tom Butcher Nicholas Gordon Matthew Kaye James Frick Padraig Connolly Alex Wilson Brandon Kelley Drs Edge Adam Charles Smith Tim Worboys Iain Forbes Tim Kiel Smith Bernt Magne Meling Elmenawy Elvis Correia Robert Bravo Marwan Flanigan Daniel Brookfield Paul Meszaros Martin Christoph Wagner David Wardale Ketchum Ronan Dowling Simon Harniess Ng Hwee Barker Brian Lowery LuckyLiam10 Andrew Higgs Ian Jepson Adam Bonynge Joseph Sheng Alan Adair Imran Butt Ceri Dovey Leon Simon Jones Peter Heine Nielsen Rory McCarthy Ell Metson Ryan Cantwell Jasen Kaspian Jago FPL Watson Bjorn Malde J G Castell Kat Mortensen Arthur Bibbey Vintage Lex Selva Glenn Herriott Steven Bell Ryan Harry Daniels M Fiveson Marwan Elsaifi Biyi Layi Daniel Meachin Son Htet Cooney Tommy Ong Darren Branch Gerard Keogh Sean Schicker Matthew Boyce Ian Brooks Rick Justin Ruth Craig Whear Carlos Abdullah AlSaudi Iain Ronald Lee Forwood Tomaz Bakker Jonathan Bazan Kristoffer Kallstrom Cristina Montejo Johnaocall Rish Hudomalj Robert Kavanagh Tom
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Simon Jones Matt Reeves Anders Haavie Jack James Nelson Loic Maingard Joe Vaughan Harding Richard Sowerby Michael P O Connor Russell Lehoczky Anthony O'Shea Aleks Rosnev Tom Joel Rongong Christoffer Fagerstrom Andrew Curvis Andrews Ian Houghton Joe Meredith Tom Reynolds Ash Balfour Callum Clark Saran Palanisamy Brett Sully Andrew Goodland Robert Laszlo David Swettenham William Matthew Kendler Andriy Szkwarek Neal Turner Steve Durham Nick Martin Paul Campbell Mark Dunseith Mark Francis Heath Cram Damian Manley Jacob P. Roberts Luke Wilson Malcolm Shearer Luis Teixeira Nicolas Nizet Lucas Mathew Brandli Robert Watson-Lang Eoghan O'Donovan Tom Sheedy Henry Beadle Andrew Thomas Richard Carlick Richard Akshay Loomba Iain Forbes Daniel Atkinson Carlos Aguiar Kyle Conundrum Azzer Jacob Jull FPL Cooper Jonny Heatherson Phil Norbury Johannes Jones Richard Ballantine James Pringle Alexander Harris Jonathan Zenz Matthew Siddiqui Richard Holt Nima Kafai Ounsworth Byron Measures Ian Tucker Andrew Anthony Dosanjh Ben Lightfoot George Richard Jenkins Norman Openshaw Iain owe Stephen Griffin Trevor Page Nick Shackleton Owen Fitzgerald Jamie Zwaig Graham Walker Charlie Bailey Simon aye James Fricker Darren Sear Connolly Simon Myhre Johansen Alfred Askvig Jack Sexton Luke Copeland Marc Lingard Gavin agne Meling Dheeraj Dheeraj Thunberg Gregory O'Neill Michael Charlesworth Stan Boosaki Ken Crowley Travis Dominic Viola vid Wardale Anthony Kirkman Rooney Siddharth Mohindroo Liam Wilgar Chukwudi Dozie Daniel Joshua Biggs Richard Kenny nynge Joseph Handley Liam Vernon Cian McKenna Adam Turk Morten Sand Marco De Benedictis Durant Rory Pad Ful Aaron tson Ryan Hughes Tor Oyvind Emma Blore Zeid Ramtoola Kevin Hutcheson PJ Coldham Sean Limbrick Simon Fitton James Tasker hur Bibbey Rizzwan Matthew Gormley Jake Wharmby Mark Erling Pettersen Dan Marsh Josh Baker Connor McKeever Kyryl wan Elsaifi Ross MacNiven McGettigan Sam Cooke Fredrik Havrylenko Clarke Hill Dayle Fernandes Filtered2 Ria Stiles Schicker Geraint Wynne Standahl Himawan Adi Prakosa Simon onald Lee Giles Dave C Clarke Hutchison Daniel Linder Rory Simpson Ryan Scott Simon Lilley Hesmondhalgh ocall Rish Hugh Little Danny Burke Daniel Gylfason Mike Kennedy Mark Westall Mike Shires Emil Sjoberg Jacob
in the Spring? Whether you chipped in a few quid helped to bring this publication to life. Now, your pre-season special. Hey, it’s the least we could do
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Analys What Can we Learn From Pre-season Fixtures? Whilst 2017 is a gap-year for the major footballing tournaments, FPL managers need to remain eagle-eyed nonetheless. With pre-season fixtures aplenty, Jack Woodfield discusses what we can glean from these summertime teasers, and the extent to which we can capitalise on those findings 24
fantasy football magazine
re-season friendlies are an aggregate of what it is to be a football fan. Exuberance. Apathy. Unreasonable optimism following victory. An excuse to get out of weddings. Largely viewed by fans as fitnessbuilding games, where the propensity for managers to field youth players and deploy avant-garde tactics diminishes their grandeur, preseason friendlies have the tendency to be overlooked. But eagle-eyed FPL managers can obtain pertinent knowledge from pre-season which, if used well, can considerably improve your Gameweek 1 squad.
P
Nothing is won in pre-season The 2016-17 pre-season included a plenitude of notable events. Copa America and the European Championships necessitated a late return for star players such as Alexis Sanchez and Harry Kane. Pep Guardiola and Antonio Conte both took the reins of English teams for the first time. Sunderland won football matches. With so many stories to follow, and with the ubiquitous Twitter providing a platform for detailed team information, pre-season friendlies
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25
Pre-season fixtures
nowadays tend to conversely produce both vacuums of news and narratives of genuine significance. Sanchez and Kane’s belated returns weren’t ever indicative of prospective GW1 absences, but Eden Hazard’s three-goal return in three games suggested the 2014-15 player of the year was a GW1 contender, despite having performed turgidly the season prior and possessing a hefty £10m price tag. While nothing is won in pre-season – a phrase which regional news outlets cyclically remind readers should a wave of optimism follow a side’s stellar, if unremarkable results – friendly matches tend to resemble a Choose Your Own Adventure book upon the start of the new season: you draw your own conclusions and possibly strike lucky. Those who gambled on Hazard’s pre-season performances were rewarded with 26 points from the first three GWs. But those who thought Ahmed Musa’s superlative pre-season brace for Leicester against Barcelona indicated a promising differential were left disappointed. Prudent planning won’t always achieve grand results, but gleaning insights from the pre-season is the first step towards launching your FPL campaign, and those who make the most astute observations are much more likely to leap ahead of their rivals.
Rotation, rotation, rotation Arguably the most salient feature of pre-season is the temporary integration of youth players into the first team. Fans tend to warm to home-grown talent much faster than players acquired for the first team, and pre-season is an opportunity to gauge their effort, talent and prospective first team potential. But that’s not to say that Premier League teams field youth players exclusively. For every new name on the team sheet, there is an established veteran seeking a return to full fitness. Of course there are first team places to play for, but football managers primarily seek one thing from pre-season: to begin the new campaign with as few injuries as possible. Consequently, rotation is inevitable. Rotation is the bane of FPL managers’ existence during the season and, unfortunately, pre-season can’t be used to predict starting XI changes throughout the season – there are simply too many variables, including
26
↓
The graph displays the amount of players each Premier League used in the 2016/17 pre-season and the total GW1 changes from average pre-season XIs. Pre-season average XIs were calculated using minutes played and games started for every player who featured in a 2016/17 pre-season friendly.
Preseason players used
Preseason games played
Total GW1 changes
Tottenham
30
31
11/11
Crystal Palace
35
9
6/11
Liverpool
37
9
6/11
Man City
29
32
5/11
Leicester
28
5
5/11
West Ham
32
6
Sunderland
27
6
5/11
Arsenal
33
5
4/11
Stoke
31
5
4/11
Southampton
32
6
4/11
Chelsea
29
64
4/11
Everton
34
7
4/11
Hull
33
8
4/11
Middlesbrough
32
8
4/11
Swansea
26
6
3/11
AFC Bournemouth
34
6
3/11
Burnley
28
6
3/11
Watford
29
6
3/11
West Brom
24
6
2/11
Man Utd
35
5
1/11
Premier League team
3
5/11
1
Tottenham played six pre-season matches; their first three (against Nottingham Forest, Fulham and Rotherham) were behind closed doors. Team information for these games is unavailable
2 Man City played four pre-season matches, with one behind closed doors against St Johnstone. 3
West Ham played two Europa League qualifiers (July 28, Aug 4) and are not included
4
Chelsea played one other friendly, a behind closed doors game against Atus Ferlach
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injuries and form. But there is one particular pattern of pre-season rotation that can be exploited. There is an argument to be made that smaller teams altered their average pre-season XI less for GW1. Manchester United aside – the teams who played more friendlies and ro-
tated the least for GW1 finished the season in 10 th (West Brom), 17 th (Watford), 9th (Bournemouth), 16th (Burnley), 15th (Swansea), 19th (Middlesbrough) and 18th (Hull). League champions Chelsea may have made the same total GW1 changes to their average pre-season XI as Middlesbrough (4), but they played two more games (excluding a behind closed doors friendly). This doesn’t mean that had Chelsea played an additional two games they would have rotated more; rather that the promoted teams (Hull, Middlesbrough, Burnley) and those ostensibly predicted to finish in the bottom half experimented less and focused more on restoring their senior players’ fitness.
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edition 2
picture by: Victoria Haydn
This can be partially explained by a plenitude of established Premier League stars from higher calibre clubs debuting later in pre-season. Alexis Sanchez’s first action after returning from Copa America was against Man City on 7 August. Jamie Vardy required wrist surgery following Euro 2016 and made his first pre-season appearance for Premier League champions Leicester City against Barcelona on 3 August, just 10 days before GW1 fixtures began. But, while Sanchez and Vardy both started Arsenal and Leicester’s respective GW1 matches, FPL managers can generally turn to prematch press conferences to ascertain which players may not make GW1. This therefore negates com-
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petitive summer tournaments and injuries as significant factors in predicting GW1 starters.
Don’t be ambushed by late transfers Unpredictable GW1 changes, on the other hand, are trickier. These changes are only marginally associated with pre-season and prematch conferences are less reliable for verifiable information. They can include last-minute injuries or varying extenuating circumstances, but in the specific case of GW1, unpredictable changes can be attributed to something different: the timing of transfers. John Stones joined Manchester City on 9 August, four days before
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Football managers primarily seek one thing from pre-season: to begin the new campaign with as few injuries as possible. Consequently, rotation is inevitable
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the start of GW1, having played three pre-season games for Everton and none for City. While missing out on Everton’s average pre-season XI by 53 minutes to Mason Holgate, it’s a viable assumption that Stones, a regular first-teamer, would have started for Everton. Stones subsequently started for City, while youth player Holgate was relegated to the bench by first team regular Phil Jagielka, who had only played 45 minutes of pre-season football. Stones’ transfer cast doubt on both Everton and Man City’s GW1 XIs and, for this reason, the timing of transfers, specifically in the days preceding GW1, is one of the hardest parts of pre-season planning. While there is no discernible
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picture by: Mike Egerton/EMPICS Sport
Pre-season fixtures
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Stellar pre-season team form understandably leads to muted optimism among fans. But poor pre-season team form can have a much more prominent, insidious effect method of gauging which players signed imminently before GW1 will play – one (rather obvious) factor pertains: is the transferred player objectively more likely to start ahead of his rivals? Andre Ayew joined West Ham for £20m on 8 August – seven days before the Hammers’ GW1 fixture with Chelsea - following a pre-season consisting of 222 minutes and three starts for Swansea. He replaced youth player Martin Samuelsen from West Ham’s average pre-season XI and started GW1. But fellow striker Jonathan Calleri joined West Ham on loan from Deportivo Maldonado on 11 August and didn’t make the GW1 squad. Of course, there were a number of possible reasons for this. Ayew was already a proven Premier League striker; his lofty transfer fee would have put more pressure on Slaven Bilic to start him; Calleri joined four days before West Ham’s GW1 and had less time to settle in. Arguably Ayew was objectively more likely to play than Calleri, but this subjective example is steered simply to provide a broad solution to gauging pre-GW1 transfers. So, when studying players signed in the days preceding GW1, you can take one of two routes: analyse their likelihood of starting using the aforementioned criteria or swerve the player altogether.
Form over function Pre-season form - a term which covers individual performances and that of the team - is often as fascinating as rotation. Sunderland won four and drew two of their six 2016/17 pre-season games but failed to win a Premier League game until November; Man City won one of four pre-season matches and subsequently went on a six-game winning league run. Stellar pre-season team form understandably leads to muted optimism (or even indifference) among fans. But poor pre-season team form
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can have a much more prominent, insidious effect. Fresh off a comprehensive Premier League titlewinning campaign in 2014/15, Jose Mourinho’s Chelsea surprisingly suffered a miserable pre-season in the summer that followed, losing three and drawing two. In their first eight 15/16 league games, Chelsea were victorious just twice. Last season, 15/16 champions Leicester wrote a similar legend. Their five pre-season games yielded just one victory; the titleholders then won just one of their first four league games. It would be trite to advocate opting against GW1 players whose teams have endured woeful preseasons without tangible evidence to document why this possible correlation exists, but it bears consideration. West Bromwich Albion (two wins from six) and Stoke City (two wins from five) both underwhelmed in their respective 2016/17 pre-seasons and struggled to halt the rot once the season began. Stoke took eight games to claim a maiden victory while West Brom won just two of the first 10. But pre-season team form can only provide so much insight about players ahead of GW1. The pre-season mix of rotation, varying calibre of opponents and experimental formations dictates that it is essentially the start of GW1 when we attain true insight into the season’s FPL must-haves. This is partly because good pre-season
It is prudent to balance your squad with star players and more likely GW1 starters
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player form is comparable to good pre-season team form: it seemingly has little bearing on a player’s outcomes for the season. Eden Hazard, Roberto Firmino (three goals each) and Zlatan Ibrahimovic (two goals) all enjoyed excellent pre-seasons and carried that form into the 2016/17 campaign. On the other hand, Andre Gray (nine goals) and Wayne Routledge (five goals) failed to transfer their pre-season form into the Premier League. Gray scored one goal in 17; Routledge scored three all season. However, these players all have one thing in common: they were first teamers for much, if not all of the season. Meanwhile, Jordan Rhodes (five goals) Sully Kaikai and Chuba Akpom (four goals each) all staked their case for a GW1 start with emphatic pre-season goalscoring respectively for Middlesbrough, Crystal Palace and Arsenal. Neither one played a single minute in GW1. While this trio were all lower in their respective first team pecking orders and objectively less likely to start GW1, they represent the inconsequential nature of pre-season player form when picking GW1 squads. Instead, it is prudent to balance your squad with star players and more likely GW1 starters.
Take a gamble, but don’t over analyse Pre-season is complicated, for sure. It encompasses several variables which can affect GW1 and requires caution when analysing skewed results and form. In essence, it’s a six-week review of established FPL analyses: set-piece takers, positional changes, players harbouring injuries, new manager philosophies serving as a pre-season of sorts for FPL managers too. Conclusively it pays to be aware of clubs with challenging opening fixtures and those who’ve lost a few too many pre-season games. Players from these teams are greater gambles than those with easier fixtures and riding sturdier form into the new season. Rotation, new signings and form can all influence GW1 selections. If in doubt, opt for a more conservative squad – you don’t want to over analyse pre-season findings and be left rueful after just one GW – but if your findings signal a low-risk, highreward opportunity, bite the bullet. It could be the catalyst for a season of green arrows. n
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Transitional Value of Championship Teams & Players How do our newly promoted prospects cope with the Premier League? Each season we welcome three new sides to the Premier League, and with them a crop of new players that spent the last year flourishing in their promotion season. With such tempting acquisitions that make Etienne Capoue look like a premium option, Jamie Reeves asks whether they are worthy of the hype
No Coverage is the Best Coverage On average, a promoted team will score 1.06 goals per game in their maiden Premier League season. Whilst the data loosely suggests the team that scored more in the Cham-
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Even the most resolute of Championship defences struggle during their first season in the top flight
Figure 1: The Transitional Value of Defences 2.50 n Championship n Premier League
2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00
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Sunderland Birmingham Derby West Brom Stoke Hull Wolves Birmingham Burnley Newcastle West Brom Blackpool QPR Norwich Swansea Reading Southampton West Ham Cardiff Hull Crystal Palace Leicester Burnley QPR Bournemouth Watford Norwich Burnley Middlesbrough Hull
W
pionship will score more in the Premier League, it’s evident that all promoted teams struggle to exceed the 1.50 goals per game threshold. Bournemouth (2014-15) are the only team from the last 10 years that averaged more than 2 goals per game in their promotion season. Their output was almost halved
Goals Concended (Per Game)
ould an FPL pre-season be an FPL pre-season if we didn’t spend the entire time over-analysing the arrivals? Convincing ourselves they will transition their form enough to merit their cost? After all, it’s easy to justify a player who can be attained so cheaply. I’ve rounded up data from the last 10 years (2006-07 - 2016-17) and analysed the transitional value of both teams and players, comparing statistics from their promotion season to their first season in the Premier League. The results were as inevitable as Alvaro Negredo blanking in a double gameweek, and further illustrate the fact that the Premier League is a completely different and far more challenging league than its predecessor.
(-44.60%) upon arrival to the Premier League. All of this should urge us to be cautious this season, particularly when selecting players from Newcastle who proved free scoring in 2016-17; picking up 85 goals (1.84 per game). So now that you’ve had a tinker and removed any newly promoted attackers, it’s time to take a look at the other end of the pitch. This is an area that historically catches a lot of managers out, as newly promoted defenders can be cheaply acquired and usually arrive with a few goals or assists under their belt. It’s also important not to use the performances of Middlesbrough and Burnley last season as a benchmark to judge the transitional value of newly-promoted defenders.
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EDITION 2
The two sides performed better defensively than 76% of newlypromoted teams have in the last 10 years. It’s rare for this to happen and our data suggests that it’s very unlikely to be the case again this year. Last season we saw three strong Championship defences join the league, and though the aforementioned teams transitioned well, it’s important to note that Hull became the first newly promoted side since Blackpool (2009-10) to concede more than 2 goals per game. Ultimately, our findings suggest that defenders have the worst transitional value over any other position, so it would seem logical to avoid and monitor in the opening months.
picture by: Nick Potts/PA Wire/PA Images
The Curious Case of Crystal Palace On average, a promoted side will concede 65.00% more goals during their first season in the top flight. However, those of you who have cast an eye at Figure 1 will have noticed that Crystal Palace seemingly achieved the impossible back in 2012-13 when they actually improved their defensive performance on arrival in the Premier League. I was interested to find out how Palace achieved this so that I could forecast which newly promoted team has the potential to be the ‘next Palace’. Did they invest cash into strengthening their defence during pre-season? Did they pick up clean sheets home/away, or against decent sides at the beginning of the season? Crystal Palace didn’t sign any new defenders in pre-season - unless you count Florian Marange, who joined but never played a game - which for the record, I don’t. They then went on to lose 9 of their opening 10 Premier League matches, failing to keep a single clean sheet. So what happened? Did they transfer in Tony Pulis or something?! Yes. That’s exactly what they did. Pulis - who had earned a reputation for
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clean sheets at Stoke - arrived at Selhurst Park in Gameweek 12, secured 11 clean sheets from their remaining 26 matches and picked up Manager of the Year in the process. So what have we learned here? We’ve learned that the defences of newly-promoted teams transition even worse than the attackers and shouldn’t be touched at the beginning of the season. Crystal Palace have the best defensive record from every newly-promoted side in the past 10 years, but even they started out the season very poorly. Rather than gambling on a newly promoted defender, just pay 0.5m more and bring McAuley.
Get Some Standards. As reliably as the barnacle geese migrate in the autumn, FPL managers annually flock to the latest Championship topscorer, hoping to grab a pre-season bargain. In almost every instance, the romance is short-lived. Then in walks Dwight Gayle (NEW) to seduce us into forgetting about Andre Gray, Callum Wilson and those that came before. The Newcastle striker averaged 0.72 goals per game in 2016-17, the highest we’ve seen from the past 10 seasons. Incase you didn’t see him in Gayle’s shadow, Glenn Murray also joins the league after scoring 23 times (0.53 GPG) during Brighton’s promotion season. He did, however, make 11 more appearances than Gayle, hence the lower GPG. It’s fair to assume that any recently-promoted striker that has just completed a 20+ goal season
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Moving on up
In a Nutshell
will be subject to interest from FPL managers, regardless of the fact that Championship top goal scorers tend to score -48.83% less goals upon arrival to the top flight. Figure 2 displays the 10 strikers with the best goals per game average from the last 10 Championship seasons. It also shows how their GPG held up during their following season in the Premier League. I’ve included Murray & Gayle’s performances from 2016-17 to show how strikers that performed similarly in previous seasons transitioned. Despite holding the record for the biggest GPG transitional decrease - which was largely due to missing more than half of the 12/13 Premier League season with injury - Glenn Murray perhaps looks the best value for money based on his predecessors. A look at Figure 2 reveals that players such as Holt (10-11), Lambert (11-12), Austin (13-14), Deeney
Team
Attacking: -36.81% Goals Scored Per Game Defensive: +65.00% Goals Conceded Per Game Player
Top Goalscorers -48.84% Goals Per Game Top Assisters: -56.00% Assists Per Game
Figure 2: Championship Top Goalscorers 0.80 n Championship n Premier League
Goals (Per Game)
0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10
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Holt (10-11)
Deeney (14-15)
Ings (13-14)
Hernandez (15-16)
PLAYER
Murray (16-17)
Vaz Te (11-12)
Austin (13-14)
Gray (15-16)
Ebanks-Blake (08-09)
Lambert (11-12)
Murray (12-13)
Gayle (16-17)
0.00
(14-15) - who have a similar playing style & physique to Murray - have transitioned better historically.
Charlie Adam’s Legacy. In 2010-11, Charlie Adam became the first and only player to increase his assists per game upon arrival to the Premier League. The bricklayer who now plies his trade at Stoke, increased his APG from 0.19 to 0.24 after managing an assist every 4.25 games. I’ll let you decide whether that’s impressive or not. Aside from Adam (10-11), McAnuff (12-13) & Deeney (14-15), none of the Championship top assisters have managed to break into the 0.20 APG threshold, and we’ve therefore seen a -56.00% decrease in the number of assists made per player. Endless starlets such as Kightly (19), Dorrans (19), Brady (13) & Ritchie (15) assisted for fun in the Championship, only to struggle on arrival in the Premier League. Stating the obvious. When newly-promoted players transition to the Premier League, they find themselves conceding more and scoring less as a team - which reflects on their individual performances. In Jens Lehman‘s terms, if a team is scoring less, their players are less likely to pick up attacking returns. If their team is conceding more, their players are less likely to keep clean sheets. You should always consider team performance when transferring in new players, and since there is no measure to forecast how well newly-promoted teams will perform, it’s definitely logical to steer clear for the opening months. n Follow Jamie on Twitter @jamieFPL so that you can inundate him with tweets when Gayle scores an opening day brace
JULY 2017
issue 2
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AG M The FF : n o p Cou e r ' e w e Becaus r o f g n i all look et s s a p a e a ch
If you’re reading this, then it looks like you’ve only gone and nabbed yourself an FFMAG coupon. With this code you can digitally haggle 10% off of a print subscription, or if you’ve already subscribed you can give it to a friend. We all have that one mate who abandons his team before you can find pumpkins in the shops, so why not introduce him to the best the community can offer in the hope that he'll stick around?! Whether you use the coupon or not, if you’re a fan of FFMAG and want to keep the dream alive for as long as possible, we need YOU to spread the word while FPL’s most stylish publication says goodbye to its stabilisers. Simply enter "KNEEJERK" at the checkout to apply your discount. Expires August 1st, 2017.
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Pricing str Where you should be spending your money With just £100m to spend, the question of where to spend your precious funds is of vital importance when building your FPL team. Luke Maunder immerses himself in the spending habits of last season’s top managers in an attempt to find a winning solution
goals and skills 2016/17 ULTRA HD f, like me, you are an abBEAST EDITION’ on repeat, what solute FPL addict (and can we do to get a headstart and let’s be honest if you’re reading the back end of make the infamous pre-season tinkFFM then it’s a safe bet that you are) ering that little bit easier? Well, we can figure out where on the pitch then you’ll have been finding the last two months of your life less stimuwe should realistically be looking to lating than Mario Balotelli doing any spend our money. With plenty of website clickactivity that doesn’t involve indoor ing and a spreadsheet larger than fireworks. There are tried and testGuangzou Evergrande’s wage bill, ed coping methods for dealing with I’ve studied the actions of last seathe dry season: relentlessly refreshing Twitter for transfer news, cryoson’s 100 best managers and done genically freezing yourself until Aumy best to uncover (dramatic pause) gust 11th, hell, some people have The Ultimate Gameweek 1 Pricing Structure. even tried forgetting about the game for a bit and enjoying their summer, Goalkeepers but none of them quite seem to hit Range: £4.0m - £5.5m the mark. If your skin has begun to itch and Where better to start than with the you can’t hold the urge any longsimplest of positions, our two keeper, my ill-informed advice is simply ers. When it comes to shaving monthis: just because Gameweek 1 isn’t ey off your team in order to facilitate on the immediate horizon, it doesn’t bringing in the big boys, the in-form mean we can’t begin goalkeepers tend to be meticulously shaping the most at risk for a Figure 1: Goalkeepers financial downgrade. our teams. Admittedly, But whilst it can often this is the fantasy foot4.5 4 37% be a good idea to sacball advice equivalent 4.5 4.5 23% of handing a recoverrifice De Gea for Daring alcoholic a key to a low and a bit of dollar, 5.5 4 22% hotel minibar, but bare we shouldn’t underes5.5 4.5 8% with me. timate the underrated 5 4.5 6% Instead of twiddling point scoring potential our thumbs and nosof an in-form keeper. 5 4 3% Of the five hightalgically watching 5 5 1% est scoring keepers in ‘Etienne Capoue best
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picture by: Barrington Coombs/PA Wire/PA Images
I
JULY 2017
EDITION 2
tructures Figure 2: Defenders 5.5
5
4.5
4.5
13%
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5.5
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5
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4
12%
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5
4.5
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8%
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5
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5%
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4%
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4%
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3%
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3%
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3%
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5
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3%
Other
Other
Other
Other
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39%
16/17, four began the season at the premium £5.5 million, with shotstopping freak Tom Heaton proving to be the £4.5m gem that finished above everyone as the game’s top scorer between the sticks. What this means is that unless you strike it lucky and find 2017/18’s inevitable bargain, the prices don’t tend to lie and your safest bet for points will be to loosen the purse strings and opt for one of the likes of De Gea, Courtois, Lloris or Ederson as your main keeper. But is the added points potential (not to mention a selection spot lost from a premium team) worth a full extra £0.5m-£1.5m that could be spent elsewhere? It’s honestly hard to say. Figure 1 shows us how 2016/17’s top 100 managers decided to spend their money. As you can see, despite what i’ve been discussing, a huge 70% decided against spending the big bucks for a main keeper, with the most popular combination proving to be £4.5m &
You seriously don’t want bench fodder in your team on Gameweek 1. The £0.5mil simply isn’t worth the future problems it could cause
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Where to Invest XXXXX
£4m, the second cheapest combination possible. It is clear that despite not maximizing points potential in this particular position, the elite managers would rather hedge their bets and use an extra £1m out on pitch. The influx of top players choosing the thriftiest price last year is most likely due to Hull’s Edin Jakupovic being a certified starter. If there aren’t any £4m starters, expect the majority of top players to opt for a £4.5/£4.5. Look out for injuries leading up to kick-off, but otherwise you seriously don’t want bench fodder in your team on Gameweek 1. The £0.5m simply isn’t worth the future problems it could cause.
Defenders
Range: £4.0m - £7.0m
With clean sheets, the odd assist or goal, yellow cards, red cards, own goals, bonus points, and of course minus points for being on the wrong end of a drubbing, an FPL manager’s back line will undoubtedly provide the biggest roller-coaster of points hauls and emotions over the course of a season. With all these ups and downs, picking the right type of players early on is very important for one‘s mental health. Figure 2 shows how generous the game’s top 100 managers tend to be with their back line. Although Figure 2 may look scattered and daunting, the main draw I took from the research is that a staggering 95% of top players opted for at least one defender worth £5.5m or above, and 60% boasted at least two (21% three, 4% four). Those planning on being super stingy with their defence may want to reconsider as these guys clearly know what they’re talking about. The least costly defender in the game will typically be worth £4m you may remember Swansea’s Jordi Amat proving the cut-price posterboy for last year. You can expect a few more gems at the same price popping up in the starting XI’s of
Figure 3: Midfielders 10
8.5
7
6
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6%
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Other Other Other Other Other 64%
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An FPL manager’s back line will undoubtedly provide the biggest roller-coaster of points-hauls and emotions over the course of a season the league‘s least attractive teams this time around, but should you be looking at getting them in? Well, apparently yes, as 63% of top players opted for a bargain bin fifth defender, while 14% included two. As stated above with the keepers, this tactic should only be enforced if said player is a certified starter. Surprisingly to me, just 19% included a defender worth £6m or more. It seems as though saving as much money as possible to splash out on your midfield and strike force is a tried and tested method for success, although I have a sneaking suspicion that next season will be different, so please hear me out.
A Tactical Upheaval The 2016/17 season saw witness to one of the largest tactical revolutions in recent memory, spearheaded by Premier League freshman Antonio Conte. The intense Italian emigrated to England with international esteem, smuggling not only his unquestionable managerial prowess, but also his trademark ‘three at the back’ formation through Heathrow security. After emphatic success, the Chelsea manager’s flexible approach swept the entire league by May. This formational fad is not going away anytime soon and is important to our defensive selection. Why? Well, ask anyone who owned Marcos Alonso for the majority of last season. The 3-4-3/5-2-3 formation sees full backs playing further up the pitch than ever before, and the game seems to have made a definitive stand this year that wingbacks are defenders and not midfielders. If you find yourself picking the right player, you could essentially be owning a winger who will also receive 4 points for a clean sheet (albeit for what will most likely be a ~£6.5m price tag). So with this in mind it may be a good idea to shell out
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JULY 2017
EDITION 2
picture by: simon cooper
Figure 5
GK
£4.5 a little more in your defence this year than last, especially seeing as a certain Liverpool penalty taker is classified as a defender now.
£4.5
£4
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£5
£5.5
£6
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£12.5
DEF
Midfield
Range: £4.5m - £12m
Fasten your seatbelts folks, the midfield five is undoubtedly the trickiest, head-scratchingest riddle that you’ll be faced with this summer. The general template for an FPL player’s midfield is one luxury £10m+ player, one £4.5m bench fodder, and three in between, or if you’re a fan of the UK game show Countdown, one from the top, and four from anywhere else please Rachel. Perhaps the top 100 stats can help us to solve this conundrum, Figure 3 shows us this. As you can see, with the most popular combination chosen by a mere 6% of players, there are no real right answers here, but there are certainly wrong ones. 81% of teams opted for a player worth £10m or more (Sanchez, Hazard, De Bruyne), which may hurt the wallet, but appears to pay dividends when you consider that these three midfielders finished 1st, 3rd, and 7th in overall points across all players in the game. Pick wisely though, as one may be all you can realistically afford. Just 8% managed to squeeze two luxury mids into their starting 15. In terms of budget, 64% of teams opted for one of the cheapest possible mids (£4.5m). These are generally the players who play holding midfield or box-to-box for the Premier League’s less glamourous teams. The Darren Fletchers of this world. The most important thing is: they play. The £4.5m midfielder slot should be attributed to someone who is assured 90 minutes, and should be placed on your bench so that in the event of one of your pricier midfielders being injured or dropped, Mr. Cheap can be autosubbed in for a solace 2-3 points. Who knows, maybe he’ll reward your loyalty with a cheeky goal or assist. However, DO NOT contract what we in the business call ‘Etienne Capoue Syndrome’. The moment you start your £4.5m midfielder on the assumption that he will return attacking points is the moment you set yourself up for frustration. 78% of players opted for at least one midfielder worth £8.5m-£9.5m to be the Robin to their £10m+ Batman. This is a
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Figure 4: Forwards 13
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price bracket that simply oozed value last year. Alli, Eriksen, Mane and Coutinho have all avoided promotion to double figure pricing, so you can bet your bottom dollar there will be some bargains at this price. Make sure not to miss out.
Strikers
Range: £4.5m - £12.5m
The headline acts, the armband hoggers, the men who you’ll be looking for after your phone buzzes GOAL and your dodgy 2-minute-behind stream is still showing a throw-in down the other end of the pitch. Our forward line is the bread and butter of FPL dreams and nightmares. Will we pick the Golden Boot winner or the premadonna that spends the second half of the season in Beijing? Only time will tell. Unlike our Chinese counterparts, we must be careful where we spend our cash. Figure 4 shows how the top 100 spent theirs. Much like the ones on the underside of my bumcheek, these 3 spots seem like they should be easy to pick
Will we pick the Golden Boot winner or the premadonna that spends the second half of the season in Beijing? Only time will tell
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MID
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but prove surprisingly hard to pinpoint. A staggering 92% of the top 100 started their campaign with the most expensive player in the entire game, Sergio Aguero. The City striker had a favourable home fixture against Sunderland on the opening day which would have massively attributed to his ownership, but even so it appears that when it comes to splashing the cash, a star striker is worth its weight in gold. Perhaps a certain mouth-breathing Spurs man should be making his way into your squad come August. Even if Aguero didn‘t take their fancy, 99% of teams had at least one striker worth £10m or more, and 64% even opted for two! Just the 1% went for an entire striking lineup of >£10m, so the consensus seems to be two’s company, three’s a crowd. So what to do with spot number three? Well 91% of players think the answer to that is a player priced £67m. These are the target men dwelling at the bottom of the league, your Dwight Gayles, your Troy Deeneys. The correct third striker is incredibly difficult to pin down but if done right, they can out score the big boys on their day.
The ultimate structure After going through the statistics of the top 100 FPL managers last season, I have put together a pricing plan as seen in Figure 5. Of course, don’t take this structure as gospel, but I believe it makes for an excellent guideline. Every season can be different but learning from the one previous isn’t a bad way to get started. Happy tinkering all. n You can bombard Luke with RMT requests on Twitter: @FFMAG_Luke
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Draft FPL
Why the true draft experience still eludes the official game
To say that the draft game has been thrust into the spotlight of late would be somewhat of an understatement. As FPL fans adjust to the unfamiliar gamemode, we spoke to Draft.co, the new draft site hellbent on doing it better
ince the launch of FPL Draft, millions of managers have suddenly found themselves wondering whether this new format is worth their time and, let’s face it, emotional investment. The answer, argues Draft.co founder Daniel Vernon, is a resounding yes. “The blood, sweat and tears are all worth the sacrifice” says the London-based developer. It appears that fantasy glory has never been so gory. The question remains, however, over where you and your mates should indulge in this new found love affair. Whilst the official Draft FPL game appeals to the masses (by the way, I’m talking about your Dad’s workleague when I say “the masses”) it has omitted some features that Daniel considers essential to getting the most out of the draft. “At Draft.co, we’ve spent a lot of time getting to the heart of what makes the draft so addictive. For us, it’s all about the rivalry and interaction with your mates. It’s a lot more intensive because no player is owned by more than one manager. If you do badly in a gameweek, it’s likely one of your opponents has done exceedingly well.” In Daniel’s eyes, this rivalry is at its
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best when managers have the ability to trade players amongst each other, a feature that the official format currently lacks. “It’s a pretty fundamental part of what makes it so fun. The crushing realisation that you’ve traded away a gem, or conversely, the joy of stealing the next hat-trick scorer from your mate, is why people play the draft.” Draft.co offers much more than manager-to-manager trading, however. Daniel let me snoop around the site to see what they’ve got planned for the new season.
The crushing realisation that you’ve traded away a gem, or conversely, the joy of stealing the next hat-trick scorer from your mate, is why people play the draft
A responsive, simple interface Immediately, it’s obvious that Daniel has invested a lot of time and consideration into the user experience. “Draft.co was born out of a frustration with other offerings. As a draft fan myself, I found no other platform could offer both a responsive, dynamic experience for the user and a game that actually realised the vast potential of draft. Draft.co is the solution.” It looks like Daniel has pulled it off. Clicking on each player unlocks a trove of valuable stats and info,
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making it easy to spot injuries, view projected points and study a player’s history. “We’ve linked up with Rotoworld’s Newsfeed to provide our users with up-to-the-minute updates on a player’s condition” he explains. “And our bespoke algorithm plots a player’s projected points with unrivaled accuracy.” What struck me about Draft.co is the commitment to guiding their users - draft veterans or total newcomers - through the whole process as smoothly and seamlessly as possible. The “How to Play” tab remains visible and clickable wherever you find yourself on the site, and weekly content provides insight and analysis on potential draft picks. It’s a feature Daniel is passionate about. “The more informed our users are, the more heated the competition. We want to encourage the out-maneuvering, back-stabbing and friendly rivalry that the draft is known for.”
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The scientific approach The user experience is all well and good, but Daniel has refined the science behind the game too. Aside from their unique points-prediction mechanism, Draft.co operates a sophisticated scoring system that factors in a massive 18 metrics to determine the value of the player. Every FPL fan has winced as their defender almost concedes, or risen from their seat at the prospect of an imminent goal from their captain. Imagine the same emotional rollercoaster but for every tackle, foul, clearance and pass your players make. It’s intoxicating, heart-attack inducing stuff. It seems Daniel wants what everybody wants when they play fantasy sports. The thrill of choosing wisely, the investment in otherwise neutral games and the bragging rights that inevitably accompany FPL success. In Draft.co, he’s found a way to maximise the joy of each. It’s what users want, and it’s what draft fantasy sports deserves. n FFMAG will be hosting numerous drafts at the beginning of August. If you can't wait until then, head over to Draft.co now and create one with your mates
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The Home Advantage Principle T
What factors contribute to home advantage? A huge number of factors contribute to home advantage, and I have chosen a couple that are particularly relevant to the Premier League. Familiarity with the nature and tendencies of your home playing surface can play a huge part (Southampton’s dodgy penalty spot anyone?). This is illustrated by the fact that home teams will go to extraordinary measures - like cutting the grass to a particular length - in order to gain an advantage over visiting teams. Familiarity with the dimensions of pitches has also been found to affect
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away teams as well as home teams who have recently moved stadiums. This is highlighted by Spurs’ dismal displays at Wembley in 16/17 compared to their near immaculate record at White Hart Lane (incidentally, they haven’t won at Wembley since the 2008 League Cup final), as well as West Ham’s terrible record at the London Stadium. Both Wembley and the London Stadium have significantly bigger playing surfaces than White Hart Lane, which has the second smallest pitch in the Premier League, and Upton Park.
Figure 1 shows the stark difference stark difference between home and away win percentages in the Premier League since I started playing FPL, back in the 09/10 season
Figure 1 60 50 40 30 PERCENTAGE
he Home Advantage Principle is the consistent finding that home teams perform better and win more games at home than away. The concept is well documented in virtually every team sport, but seems particularly pervasive in football. It has existed since the establishment of the football league in England in 1888, with home sides found to win more games and score more goals across all levels of the beautiful game.
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The Premier League boasts the highest stadium occupancy in Europe at 94% according to deportesyfinanzas.com’s findings in 2016. How does this have an effect on matches? Well, research has proved that referees favour home teams when large crowds are present. One notable study that grabbed my attention saw qualified referees watch a recording of a Premier League match between Liverpool and Leicester City at Anfield during the 1998-1999 season. One half of the referees watched the match with crowd noises, whilst the other half watched it on mute. The group that watched it with sound gave significantly less fouls against Liverpool, the home team, than the group that watched it on mute, suggesting that crowds clearly influence referees’ decisions by increasing their perceptions of being monitored and judged.
How does this translate into FPL? Figure 2 and 3 compare the number of goals scored and penalties awarded between home and away teams
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EDITION 2
picture by: Martin Rickett/PA Wire/PA Images
As a sport psychologist, James Lau’s approach to FPL considers a vital variable that other managers rarely acknowledge: the human mind. Here, he explains how a simple yet devastatingly convincing principle has shaped his 8 seasons of FPL decision-making for the better
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Both the goals scored graph (left) and the penalties awarded graph (right) show a conspicuous disparity between home and away teams. Indeed, last season’s figures illustrate the disparity clearer than any other
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beef up a defence that might be full of rotation prone players (e.g. Alonso over David Luiz, selling Capoue or Joe Allen and hopping on the Josh King train early, or finally getting rid of Jordi Amat). By doing so, you can invest more capital in your squad, while compensating for the loss of the big hitter by replacing him with a more affordable, value player in the medium term. This should, in theory, minimise the potential points differential between the two over that period, whilst giving you a stronger overall squad and value. If all works out, you shouldn’t have any trouble getting that big hitter back for those plum home fixtures and DGWs we all love. Win win. Lastly, there are aesthetic reasons to it all too. Crystal Palace had a near identical home and away record last season, but I will always be more optimistic of big hauls when I see (CRY) underneath a player’s name as opposed to (cry), no matter who the player is (OK maybe not Jonathan Calleri or Vincent Janssen). Just me? Yes? No? Probably. Needless to say, according to this theory, if you’re ever suffering with an FPL-based dilemma (every week, I assume) it would be a no brainer to go for the player who has more home fixtures on the horizon, assuming all other variables (form, fixtures etc.) are relatively similar. I have stuck to the Home Advantage Principle religiously in my 8 seasons of FPL, and it has seldom let me down. I can only hope it brings you similar fortunes. n
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in each of the past 3 seasons. As you can see, home teams scored more goals and were awarded more penalties. Here’s a bonus stat for you; only two teams, Stoke and Hull, had less possession at home than away last season. Maybe cold, rainy nights in Stoke affect Stoke players too. With this data in mind, players should theoretically score more FPL points at home than away, something that I assume most of you are already aware of to a certain extent. Many FPL managers already apply this principle whether they know it or not. Online forums are regularly peppered with responses such as “pick player A, he’s at home” when asked which goalkeeper, 3rd defender, or 4th midfielder to start. While those are logical responses, what about applying the same principle when picking players you don’t plan on rotating?
Big hitters (a) vs cheaper alternatives (H) I had a look at last season’s heavy hitters (top 3 point scorers in each outfield category), and compared them to their more budget friendly
Selling a big hitter that has a glut away fixtures in the medium term may not be as painful as it seems counterparts that were in the chasing pack in the overall points table. All but 2 of the 18 players I have picked, Alexis and Benteke, scored better at home, fitting nicely into everything I have talked about so far. However, Figure 5 is where it gets interesting. This graph compares away values (away points-per-game divided by starting price) of big hitters with home values of their cheaper counterparts. As you can see, the cheaper players’ home values more than matched the away values of heavy hitters (average value of 0.76 vs 0.62). This tells us that selling a big hitter that has a glut of away fixtures in the medium term (I like to look 6 fixtures ahead as a rule), for a cheaper player who has a host of home games coming up might not be as painful as it seems. By going without said big hitter, you can use the extra money to catch mid-season bandwagons, or
Figures 4 and 5 depict a player’s points per game (PPG) and their corresponding value respectively. As with Figures 2 and 3, the results clearly illustrate a stark home advantage
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Your FPL Ho
with Cystic Leg l What does your Quinton Aquarius
Gemini
lll You will be tormented by a difficult decision this month. Do you gamble on Harry Kane in GW1, despite the fact he’s allergic to August? Rest assured, Aquarius, that whatever you decide, you will probably be forced into playing your Wildcard in GW2. Take comfort in knowing that the FPL stars will never align for you.
lll Contrary to popular belief, Gemini is not a 16 year-old Chelsea academy player out on loan to Bristol City. The Gemini star is currently curving from right to left with more vigour than that Roberto Carlos freekick that you still watch on Youtube every now and again. It’s a sure sign that Brazilians - Coutinho, Firmino, Willian and the popular pubic hairstyle should be prioritised by Gemini’s everywhere.
January 20 - February 18
Pisces
May 22 – June 21
February 19 - March 20
Cancer
lll A new acquaintance will throw doubt over your best made plans. His name is Pep Guardiola, and his propensity for rotation will make your first few gameweeks an unprecedented challenge. Meanwhile, the fish-like qualities of Mesut Ozil’s eyes will gift Pisces managers with a gluttony of early season points should they decide to include him in their teams.
lll The least popular star-sign, Cancers are the only demographic to be born in the FPL void between seasons. Much like their more notorious namesake, Cancers should be avoided where possible. Invite them to your mini-league and definitely strike a wager with them - they are cursed, and will almost certainly have given up by GW6.
June 22 – July 23
Aries
Leo
lll A recent spiritual enlightening inspired by sitting on the toilet for too long will compel you to use the Free Hit chip on the opening week of the season. Despite warnings from well-meaning friends, you’ll plough on nonetheless, only realising the extent of your mistake during a Blank Gameweek in February 2018.
lll Born from the womb of the Premier League itself (sponsored by Bet365, of course), Leo’s have everything going for them this season. Channeling my inner Ray Winstone, I would encourage Leo’s to take a few gambles in the initial phase of the 17/18 campaign. Worried that Salah is unproven in the Premier League? GAAAAAMBLE. It will almost certainly pay off for you.
March 21 - April 19
Taurus
July 23 – August 23
April 20 – May 21
Virgo
lll True love may have eluded you thus far, Taurus, but you’ll find it this season in the form of Marco Silva, who’s brick-wall approach to defensive tactics will bring clean sheets aplenty. It’s time to embrace your FPL hipster and rock the 5-3-2 formation, squeezing in 3 Watford players into that trendy back-line. This is almost certainly the best advice you will read during the pre-season, because the stars say so.
lll You feel excited and motivated to start this season, Virgo, but this will be shortlived when you realise you’re just as shit at FPL as the season before. You worry that your friends may have forgotten about you - which they have, because you’ve plummeted so far down the mini-league you’re no longer on Page 1.
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fantasy football magazine
August 23 – September 23
JULY 2017
EDITION 2
Horoscopes
nton Fortune hold?
d good, h analysis are all well an pt de ind an ts sta st Whil nets to look at the stars and pla nothing beats a good roscopes Ho t. ason might play ou gauge how the 17/18 se telescope g ints his impressively lon expert Cystic Leg po ns here s his startling revelatio to the skies and share
Libra
September 23 – October 23 lll Having lived a life filled with bitterness over being born in arguably the most boring phase in the gregorian calendar, Libra’s have to ensure they do not make silly decisions out of spite. Ibra the Libra may have saved you last season, but you’re going to have to be far more resourceful during this campaign.
Scorpio
October 23 – November 22 lll Named after that Giroud goal last season, Scorpio’s are always advised to choose underperforming forwards that occasionally score ridiculously good goals. An attacking force that includes the likes of Andy Carroll, Paul Pogba and Xherdan Shaqiri will doubtless make for a potent cocktail of constant disappointment mixed with sporadic euphoria.
Sagittarius
November 22 - December 22
picture by: Nigel French/PA Wire/PA Images
lll Stricken with a perpetually saggy tarius, you need to ignore your gut instincts and latch onto your mini-league leader, copying their every move as accurately as you can. It doesn’t matter if that’s Tina from reception who hasn’t watched a game of football since France ‘98, you’ll soon learn that her abandoned team with Fernando Llorente captained is as likely to win as anyone else‘s. Tina is almost certainly a Leo.
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Capricorn
December 22 - January 22 lll Rotation is a worry for Capricorns this season - but not player rotation, planet rotation. With all those planets rotating like United’s defence on steroids, you’re going to have to stay vigilant to avoid being hit by a fast-moving vehicle. I realise this has nothing to do with FPL, but it’d be rude not to tell you.
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picture by: Scott heavey