Milan Municipality Two Demographic Realities and Trend

G07

Inclusive housing as a driver of equitable urban regeneration Rethinking homes within urban density in the second municipality of Milan

Demographic Realities and Trends Infographic portrait on the macro-area

Inclusive housing as a driver of equitable urban regeneration Rethinking homes within urban density in the second municipality of Milan

Politecnico di Milano Scuola di Architettura Urbanistica Ingegneria delle Costruzioni A.A. 2019/2020 MI (1217) Architecture and Urban design URBAN DESIGN STUDIO 2019/2020 Urban Planning: Prof. Alessandro Coppola Tutors: Maryam Karimi, Valentina Brambilla

Students I Putu Febry Kusuma Manuel Zangirolami Sabina Zakirova

The population percentage of Milan

M9

M2

M8

17

16

M3 M7

13

M1

19 12

M4 M6

20

11

M5

10

7%

8%

14%

22%

The density level of Milan

M9

M2

M8

17

16

M3 M7

13

M1

19 12

M4 M6

20

11

M5

400 people/km2

10

1.300 people/km2

7.000 people/km2

28.000 people/km2

The diversity of Milan

M9 M8

M2

17

16

M3 M7

13

M1

19 12

M4 M6 M5

Less Diverse

4

20 Loreto

11 10

More Diverse

The percentage of the population, density and diversity of Milan Source: sisi.comune.milano.it and geoportale.comune.milano.it

Less Diverse

More Diverse

01 Demographic Realities and Trends Infographic portrait on the macro-area The group’s investigation on the topic of Demographic Realities and Trends focuses on two different aspects of the city, the population and diversity aspect. Each aspect is analysed on three different scale starting from the city of Milan, the municipalities and the NIL of Second Municipality. The information is projected to create a timeline and to understand the trend and reality of the city. A comparison between one area to another is made to understand the significance of the data analysed.

The municipality data set presents an understanding of the population and density of each municipality in the city of Milan. According to the graphics presented, we are able to see that M8 (municipality 8) presents the highest percentage of population in 2018 with 13,50% followed by M9 (13,46%) and M7 (12,59%). The beloved Second Municipality is placed on number four with 11,62%. On the contrast, the density level speaks a different trend than the percentage of population. Second Municipality is placed on number one with 1283,53 people per square kilometre.

M1 is on the second place and M3 on the third place.

aa 2019-2020

References Sisi.comune.milano.it istat.it geoportale.comune.milano.it

Another investigation is made into the diversity aspect of Milan. We analysed the pattern of the population based on the preceding diagrams to create a coherent understanding of the population percentage of the foreigners. We can observe a gradual increase in the percentage of population from 2010 – 2018. The year 2018 presents

From all the finding, we can summarize the demographic aspect into several statements. First, the city of Milan is the most populated city in the Lombardy Region. The city shows a steady increase of population in the future.

Second, Second Municipality (M2) is the densest municipality in the city. It is easily observed from the comparison graphics. The future projection of the municipality shows that Second Municipality is still growing and prospering until 2035 despite the gradual decrease of the growth rate.

It is also true that M2 is the most diverse municipality in Milan. Third, NIL 20 (Loreto) is the densest and the most diverse NIL in the area of Second Municipality. The projection of the NIL also shows an increase from the past trends and will most likely have an increase of population until year 2035.

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Analysing even further into the scale, we arrive at the NILs of the Second Municipality. Presented in these graphics, the NIL 20 (Loreto) is ranked number one for the percentage of population with 21,19% of the total NIL population. NIL 19 (Padova) is second and NIL 16 (Viale Monza) is third. The density level seems to follow the trend of the population. On the first place, we are able to see Loreto with 26.011,04 people per square kilometre followed by Padova with 18.201,74 people per square kilometre. The map of each municipality and NIL concludes the finding of the population in the city of Milan. To sum up, the Second Municipality is the densest municipality in the city with NIL 20, Loreto, as the most densely populated NIL compared to the whole city of Milan.

In order to understand the future projection of Second Municipality, we present two different scales for the projection. The municipality scale depicts three different municipalities for a comparison study. The analysis shows three different projection scenarios, a high population projection, middle population projection and low population projection. Each of the scenario presents different outcomes for the year 2035. It is very clear to see that Second Municipality presents the highest percentage of growth for the following years until 2035. However, the line chart represents a gradually decreasing percentage of growth on the city of Milan. The same trend is observable on the foreign population projection. The line chart shows a decreasing trend of growth from the three-projection scenario. If we take the high projection scenario, the percentage of growth decreases from 40,76% Meanwhile, the NIL projection shows the percentage of population from 2005 – 2035 showing the past trend and the future projection of each NIL.

Group 07

The information begins with the general information of the region. The city of Milan (Comune di Milano) is under the administrative Province of Milan and located in the Region of Lombardy. Based on the data available on istat.it, the province of Milan is the most populated area compared to other provinces in the Lombardy Region with the percentage of 32,30%. Progressing deeper into the scale of the city, we observe the past trend of the city of Milan. We are able to observe a significant decrease in the population between 2012-2014. It is very clear that the growth rate between 2012 and 2013 became – 9,02%.

However, there is a gradual increase of the city’s population from 2005 onwards.

the newest data available on sisi.comune.milano.it with the percentage of 19,77%. This data shows an increase of 3.34% from 2010. The analysis of each municipality came to a conclusion that the Second Municipality has the highest percentage of foreigners in the area with 29,43% of the total Second Municipality. M9 is second with 24,34% of the population being foreign. The past trend of Second Municipality also shows the same gradual increase of the population of foreigners. 2018 presents the highest percentage of population yet with an increase of 5,16% from 2010.

The next step is to determine the diversity level on each NILs of Second Municipality. We are able to see from the infographic that NIL 20 (Loreto) presents the highest

5

35,00%

32,30%

30,00% 25,00% 20,00% 15,00%

12,58%

11,70%

8,69%

10,00%

5,96%

3,57%

5,00%

3,36%

2,29%

8,86% 5,43%

4,10%

1,80%

Va re se

So nd rio

a Pa vi

za

M on z

aa

nd

Br

ian

an to va M

Lo di

Le cc o

C re m on a

Br es ci a

om o C

am o Be rg

M

ila n

0,00%

The population percentage in each province of the Lombardy Region (2018) source: istat.it 45,50%

45,02%

45,00%

43,50%

44,03%

44,00%

44,16%

44,50%

2015

42,91%

42,54%

2014

42,00%

42,66%

42,53%

42,50%

43,14%

43,00%

41,50% 41,00% 2011

2012

2013

2016

2017

2018

The population percentage of the city of Milan in comparison to the province of Milan (2018) source: istat.it and sisi.comune.milano.it

2018

1,04%

2017

0,90%

2016

0,64%

2015

0,68%

2014

-0,24% -0,92%

2013

1,83%

2012 1,44%

2011 2010

1,24%

-1,5%

-1,0%

-0,5%

0%

0,5%

1,0%

The growth percentage of the city of Milan from 2010 - 2018 source: sisi.comune.milano.it

6

1,5%

2,0%

We may observe from the graphics presented in this section as an overall condition of the region and the city of Milan. Based on the first line chart presented above, we are able to see that the province of Milan presents the highest percentage of population compared to other provinces in Lombardy Region with a high mark of 32,30%. Diving deeper into the city of Milan, we are able to show the population percentage of the city of Milan. We are able to see that there is a significant decline in population between 2012-2014. However, from 2014 forward, the graphic shows a promising increase of population until 2018.

16%

16% 13,46%

13,46%

13,50%

12,58%

12,58%

10,84%

9,08%

11,58%

7,06%

4%

9,08%

6% 8%

10,84%

11,58%

7,06%

8% 10%

10,33%

11,62%

10% 12%

10,33%

11,62%

14% 12%

13,50%

14%

6%

2%

4%

0%

M1

2%

M2

0%

M1

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

The percentage of population of each municipalities (2018) M2 M3 source: M4SISI Milan M5 M6 M7

M8

M9

The percentage of population in each municipalities (2018) The percentage of population of each municipalities (2018) source: sisi.comune.milano.it source: SISI Milan

1400

1

0

2000

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

893,58

893,58

787,93

8

559,46

M1

4 6

9

420,87

4000

825,13559,46

6000

8

5

420,87

2000

787,93

825,13 9

7

780,61

8000

998,39

4000

3

6

Group 07

6000 1000

1045,21

2

4

5

7

780,61

1

998,39

1200 8000

3

1283,53

1000

2

1045,21

1400

1283,53

1200

M9

The density of each municipalities in Milan (2018)

The density and rank source: of municipalities of Milan (2018) sisi.comune.milano.it source: SISI Milan

0 M1

Area (km ) M1 M2 2

94,2687

M2

126,2855 The

M3

144,3424

M4

206,9548

M5

M3Population M4(people) M5 98.531

Density (people/km ) M6 M7 M8 2

1045,21

162.090 1283,52 density and rank of municipalities of Milan (2018) 144.110 SISI Milan 998,39 source:

Rank

M9 2

1 3

780,61

7

299,5886

126.089

420,87

9

M6

183,3622

151.298

825,13

5

M7

313,6342

175.465

559,46

8

M8

239,0648

188.367

787,93

6

M9

210,1349

187.773

893,58

4

aa 2019-2020

The density information of each municipalities (2018) source: sisi.comune.milano.it and geoportale.comune.milano.it

161.551

The next phase is to present the demographic information on the scale of municipalities. The first line chart presents the population percentage of each municipalities. It is observable that M8 (municipality eight) places the first position with 13,50%. On the contrary, M2 presents the most densely populated municipality in Milan with around 1.283 people in each square kilometre of land. The detail information is provided in the table on the left.

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No.

7

11,80%

10,91%

11,00% 10,80%

11,62%

11,52%

11,32%

11,31%

11,27%

11,09%

11,20%

11,40%

11,40%

11,46%

11,60%

10,60% 10,40% The population percentage of Second Municipality from 2010 - 2018 (%) source: sisi.comune.milano.it

21,19%

25%

17,49%

20%

8,16%

7,39%

5%

12,20%

10,78%

9,01%

10%

13,76%

15%

0

10

11

12

13

16

17

19

20

The population percentage of Second Municipality’s NILs (%) source: sisi.comune.milano.it

30.000

25.000 20.000

0

10

11

12

13

18.201,74

6 8

7.200,32

7

9.824,58

15.627,04

4

8.968,32

5.000

17.484,95

10.000

5

12.425,47

15.000

2

3

16

The density of second municipality’s NILs (people/km2) source: sisi.comune.milano.it

8

26.011,04

1

17

19

20

The first line chart presents the population percentage of Second Municipality. We may conclude that the trend of the population is steadily increasing in the Second Municipality with the highest percentage yet at the present date. The second line chart shows the population percentage on the scale of NILs. Based on the information, NIL 20 (Loreto) is the highest populated NIL in Second Municipality with 21,19%. The density also shows the same data. First place is NIL 20(Loreto) with 26.011 people/ km2 followed by NIL 19 (Padova) and NIL 11 (Isola).

M9

M2

M8

17

16

M3 M7

13

M1

19 12

M4 M6

20

11

M5

10

7%

8%

14%

22%

The population map of the city source: sisi.comune.milano.it

Group 07

M9

M2

M8

17

16

M3 M7

13

M1

19 12

M4 10

1.300 people/km2

7.000 people/km2

aa 2019-2020

The density map of the city of Milan source: sisi.comune.milano.it and geoportale.comune.milano.it

28.000 people/km2

400 people/km2

20

11

M5

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M6

9

19,33%

2014

2015

2016

2017

19,77%

19,03%

2013

19,05%

19,52%

2012

18,76%

19,13%

16,43%

15,00%

17,65%

20,00%

10,00%

5,00%

0,00% 2010

2011

2018

The foreigner’s population percentage in the city of Milan from 2010 - 2018 source: sisi.comune.milano.it

35%

1

29,43%

5%

M5

7

19,38%

M4

3

4

18,95%

15,12%

10%

9

12,30%

15%

8

6

16,30

5

20%

24,34%

2

17,82

25%

19,58%

30%

0%

M1

M2

M3

M6

M7

M8

M9

The foreigner’s population percentage in each municipalities of Milan (2018) source: sisi.comune.milano.it

35%

29,43%

28,82%

28,12%

20 14

28,57%

28,76%

20 13

28,52%

28,30%

20 12

20%

24,27%

25%

26,13%

30%

15% 10% 5%

The foreigner’s population percentage in Second Municipality from 2010 - 2018 source: sisi.comune.milano.it

10

20 18

20 17

20 16

20 15

20 11

20 10

0%

The diversity of the Second Municipality is an important aspect in our investigation. Based on our hypothesis, Second Municipality is the most diverse area in Milan. Our investigation on the statistic of the city came to a conclusion that the Second Municipality is indeed the most diverse area in Milan with 29,43 percent. The second position is M9 24,34 percent of foreigners, just roughly 5 percent behind Second Municipality.

7,32%

35% 30%

6,05%

25% 20%

2,00%

1,82%

2,42%

5%

2,05%

2,50%

10%

3,23%

15%

0%

10

11

12

13

16

17

19

20

The foreigner’s population percentage in Second Municipality NILS (2018) source: sisi.comune.milano.it

10.000 8.981

9.000 8.000 7.000

6.291

6.000 5.000 3.445

3.319

3.000

Group 07

4.000

3.100

2.000

2.211

2.305

13

16

1.768

1.000 0

10

11

12

17

19

20

The foreigner’s population density in Second Municipality NILs (2018) source: sisi.comune.milano.it and geoportale.comune.milano.it

M8

M2

17

16

M3 M7

M1

19 12

M4 M6 M5

10

More Diverse

Less Diverse

More Diverse

aa 2019-2020

Less Diverse

20 Loreto

11

To further conclude the diversity level of the Second Municipality, the observation was made on the NIL level of the Second Municipality. The graphic shows that NIL 20 (Loreto) is placed on the first rank with 7,32% of the population are foreigners. The last map presents the conclusion of the diversity aspect that the NIL 20 (Loreto) is the most diverse area compared to the whole city of Milan.

13

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M9

The map of diversity in the city of Milan source: sisi.comune.milano.it

11

80% 72,37%

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

7,43%

7,41% 7,20%

4,17% 0,07% -2,23%

2010

7,60% 0,45%

7,55%

5,19% 4,10%

3,85%

4,96%

5,05%

5,48% 5,00%

-1,00%

2015

2020 M1

M2

2025 M3

2030

2035

The high population projection (2010 - 2035) 8%

7,43% 6,85%

6% 4,42%

4,17%

3,97%

4%

3,51%

3,45%

2,99% 3,46%

3,91% 3,79% 3,26%

2,97% 2,51%

2% 0,45%

0%

0,07%

-1,00%

-2% -2,23%

-4%

2010

2015

2020 M1

2025 M2

2030

2035

M3

The middle population projection (2010 - 2035) 8%

7,43% 6,85%

6% 4,42%

4%

3,97% 3,45%

4,17%

2,97%

3,91% 3,26%

2,51%

3,30%

2,62%

2%

2,27%

2,50%

0,45%

0%

0,07% -1,00%

-2% -2,23%

-4%

2010

2015

2020 M1

2025 M2

M3

The low population projection (2010 - 2035)

12

The projection of population growth from three different municipalities (2010 - 2035) source: sisi.comune.milano.it

2030

2035

Three different images are shown on the left side. Each line chart presents information of the growth percentage projection of three different municipalities in Milan. The chosen municipalities are picked according to their density rank from the previous graphic. M1 represents Municipality One, M2 represents Municipality Two and M3 represents Municipality Three. Each set of diagram informs three different scenario available in the city data, high projection scenario, middle projection scenario and low projection scenario. In conclusion, it is observable that M2 has the highest and most steady growth percentage compared to M1 and M3.

50% 40,76%

40%

30%

26,22%

20%

16,27%

15,48%

18,63%

10%

14,41%

13,22%

6,99%

7,95%

8,08%

12,41% 6,55%

12,95%

14,31%

11,27% 11,13% 7,17%

0% -5,90%

-10% 2010

2015

2020 M1

2025 M2

2030

2035

M3

The high projection of the foreigner’s population (2010 - 2035) 50% 40,76%

40%

30% 18,63%

14,81% 11,25%

10%

Group 07

20%

26,22%

12,57% 12,41%

9,42% 6,55%

5,37%

0%

8,78% 7,68% 6,95%

8,08%

3,42%

2,81%

2025

2030

2,55%

-5,90%

-10% 2010

2015

2020 M1

M2

2035

M3

The middle projection of foreigner’s population (2010 - 2035)

40,76%

40% 30% 20%

26,22% 18,63% 14,53% 10,28%

7,74%

5,20%

12,41%

2,70%

0,07% 0,12%

0,09%

0,07%

-5,90%

-10% 2010

2015

2020 M1

2025 M2

2030

2035

aa 2019-2020

0%

6,73% 1,79% 0,06%

2,02%

10%

The line charts present the projection of growth for the population of foreigners in Milan. The graphic creaets a comparison between M1, M2 and M3 to understand the diversity level. Based on the projection data, we are able to see a slope of the population growth in the next 25 years. The percentage of growth of every projection is decreasing gradually each year. However, the growth rate of the foreign population is still positive in the upcoming years.

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50%

M3

The low projection of foreigner’s population (2010 - 2035)

The projection of foreigners growth from three different municipalities (2010 - 2035)

13

Percentage of Population Projection NIL 10 (Centrale)

Legend

12%

P ∆R % D

10%

= (2035) population = (2035) population - (2018) population = Variation of residents (∆R/2018 population) = Population / NIL Area (people / km2)

8%

P 6% 4%

∆R

%

D

High

26.515

7180

37,13%

16.996,79

Middle

26.515

7180

37,13%

16.996,79

Low

24.211

4876

25,22%

15.519,87

2%

Population Comparison (2018 and 2035)

0% 2005

2010

2015 High Projection

2020 Middle Projection

2025

2030

2035

Low Projection

Percentage of Population Projection NIL 11 (Isola) 12,00% 11,80% 11,60% 11,40%

P

∆R

%

D

11,20%

High

31.612

8.480

26,83%

23948,48

11,00%

Middle

29.574

6.442

21,78%

22.404,55

Low

28.682

5.550

19,35%

21.728,79

10,80%

Population Comparison (2018 and 2035)

10,60% 10,40% 10,20% 2005

2010

2015 High Projection

2020 Middle Projection

2025

2030

2035

Low Projection

Percentage of Population Projection NIL 12 (Maciachini - Maggiolina) 14,00% 13,50% 13,00% 12,50%

P

12,00% 11,50% 11,00% 10,50%

%

D

High

31.284

5.109

16,33%

18732,93

Middle

29.352

3.177

10,82%

17.576,05

Low

28.534

2.359

8,27%

17.086,23

Population Comparison (2018 and 2035)

10% 2005

2010

2015 High Projection

14

∆R

2020 Middle Projection

2025 Low Projection

2030

2035

Legend

Percentage of Population Projection NIL 13 (Greco)

P ∆R % D

7,60%

= (2035) population = (2035) population - (2018) population = Variation of residents (∆R/2018 population) = Population / NIL Area (people / km2)

7,50% 7,40%

P

7,30%

∆R

%

D

7,20%

High

26.515

7180

37,13%

16.996,79

7,10%

Middle

26.515

7180

37,13%

16.996,79

7,00%

Low

24.211

4876

25,22%

15.519,87

6,90%

Population Comparison (2018 and 2035)

6,80% 6,70% 6,60%

2005

2010

2015 High Projection

2020 Middle Projection

2025

2030

2035

Low Projection

Percentage of Population Projection NIL 16 (Viale Monza)

13,90% 13.80%

P

13.60%

∆R

%

D

13.50%

High

35.922

+6.393

21,65%

11.934,22

13.40%

Middle

22.974

+4.445

15,05%

11.287,04

13.30%

Low

33.034

+3.505

11,87%

10.974,75

13.20%

Group 07

13.70%

Population Comparison (2018 and 2035)

13.10% 13.00% 12,90% 12,80%

2005

2010

2015 High Projection

2020 Middle Projection

2025

2030

2035

Low Projection

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Percentage of Population Projection NIL 17 (Adriano) 10,00% 9,00% 8,00% 7,00% 6,00%

5,00%

P

∆R

%

D

High

21.273

+3.765

+21,50%

8.754,32

3,00%

Middle

20.001

+2.495

+14,24%

8230,86

2,00%

Low

19.374

+1.866

+10,66%

7972,84

1,00% 0,00%

Population Comparison (2018 and 2035)

2005

2010

2015 High Projection

2020 Middle Projection

2025

2030

aa 2019-2020

4,00%

2035

Low Projection

15

Percentage of Population Projection NIL 19 (Padova)

Legend P ∆R % D

18,00%

= (2035) population = (2035) population - (2018) population = Variation of residents (∆R/2018 population) = Population / NIL Area (people / km2)

17,80% 17,60%

P

17,40%

∆R

%

D

+8.326

+22,18%

22.260,68

17,20%

High

45.857

17,00%

Middle

41.993

+4.462

+11,89%

20.384,95

16,80%

Low

40.680

3.149

+8,39%

19.747,57

16,60%

Population Comparison (2018 and 2035)

16,40% 16,20% 16,00% 15,80% 2005

2010

2015 High Projection

2020 Middle Projection

2025

2030

2035

Low Projection

Percentage of Population Projection NIL 20 (Loreto)

23,00%

P

22,50% 22,00% 21,50%

%

D

High

61.287

+15.831

+34,83%

+35.021,14

Middle

56.399

+10.943

24,07%

+32.228,00

Low

54/837

+9.381

20,64%

+31.335,43

Population Comparison (2018 and 2035)

21,00% 20,50%

2005

2010

2015 High Projection

16

∆R

2020 Middle Projection

2025 Low Projection

2030

2035

Group 07

Urban Design Studio

aa 2019-2020

17