G07
Inclusive housing as a driver of equitable urban regeneration Rethinking homes within urban density in the second municipality of Milan
Demographic Realities and Trends Infographic portrait on the macro-area
Inclusive housing as a driver of equitable urban regeneration Rethinking homes within urban density in the second municipality of Milan
Politecnico di Milano Scuola di Architettura Urbanistica Ingegneria delle Costruzioni A.A. 2019/2020 MI (1217) Architecture and Urban design URBAN DESIGN STUDIO 2019/2020 Urban Planning: Prof. Alessandro Coppola Tutors: Maryam Karimi, Valentina Brambilla
Students I Putu Febry Kusuma Manuel Zangirolami Sabina Zakirova
The population percentage of Milan
M9
M2
M8
17
16
M3 M7
13
M1
19 12
M4 M6
20
11
M5
10
7%
8%
14%
22%
The density level of Milan
M9
M2
M8
17
16
M3 M7
13
M1
19 12
M4 M6
20
11
M5
400 people/km2
10
1.300 people/km2
7.000 people/km2
28.000 people/km2
The diversity of Milan
M9 M8
M2
17
16
M3 M7
13
M1
19 12
M4 M6 M5
Less Diverse
4
20 Loreto
11 10
More Diverse
The percentage of the population, density and diversity of Milan Source: sisi.comune.milano.it and geoportale.comune.milano.it
Less Diverse
More Diverse
01 Demographic Realities and Trends Infographic portrait on the macro-area The group’s investigation on the topic of Demographic Realities and Trends focuses on two different aspects of the city, the population and diversity aspect. Each aspect is analysed on three different scale starting from the city of Milan, the municipalities and the NIL of Second Municipality. The information is projected to create a timeline and to understand the trend and reality of the city. A comparison between one area to another is made to understand the significance of the data analysed.
The municipality data set presents an understanding of the population and density of each municipality in the city of Milan. According to the graphics presented, we are able to see that M8 (municipality 8) presents the highest percentage of population in 2018 with 13,50% followed by M9 (13,46%) and M7 (12,59%). The beloved Second Municipality is placed on number four with 11,62%. On the contrast, the density level speaks a different trend than the percentage of population. Second Municipality is placed on number one with 1283,53 people per square kilometre. M1 is on the second place and M3 on the third place.
aa 2019-2020
References Sisi.comune.milano.it istat.it geoportale.comune.milano.it
Another investigation is made into the diversity aspect of Milan. We analysed the pattern of the population based on the preceding diagrams to create a coherent understanding of the population percentage of the foreigners. We can observe a gradual increase in the percentage of population from 2010 – 2018. The year 2018 presents
From all the finding, we can summarize the demographic aspect into several statements. First, the city of Milan is the most populated city in the Lombardy Region. The city shows a steady increase of population in the future. Second, Second Municipality (M2) is the densest municipality in the city. It is easily observed from the comparison graphics. The future projection of the municipality shows that Second Municipality is still growing and prospering until 2035 despite the gradual decrease of the growth rate. It is also true that M2 is the most diverse municipality in Milan. Third, NIL 20 (Loreto) is the densest and the most diverse NIL in the area of Second Municipality. The projection of the NIL also shows an increase from the past trends and will most likely have an increase of population until year 2035.
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Analysing even further into the scale, we arrive at the NILs of the Second Municipality. Presented in these graphics, the NIL 20 (Loreto) is ranked number one for the percentage of population with 21,19% of the total NIL population. NIL 19 (Padova) is second and NIL 16 (Viale Monza) is third. The density level seems to follow the trend of the population. On the first place, we are able to see Loreto with 26.011,04 people per square kilometre followed by Padova with 18.201,74 people per square kilometre. The map of each municipality and NIL concludes the finding of the population in the city of Milan. To sum up, the Second Municipality is the densest municipality in the city with NIL 20, Loreto, as the most densely populated NIL compared to the whole city of Milan.
In order to understand the future projection of Second Municipality, we present two different scales for the projection. The municipality scale depicts three different municipalities for a comparison study. The analysis shows three different projection scenarios, a high population projection, middle population projection and low population projection. Each of the scenario presents different outcomes for the year 2035. It is very clear to see that Second Municipality presents the highest percentage of growth for the following years until 2035. However, the line chart represents a gradually decreasing percentage of growth on the city of Milan. The same trend is observable on the foreign population projection. The line chart shows a decreasing trend of growth from the three-projection scenario. If we take the high projection scenario, the percentage of growth decreases from 40,76% Meanwhile, the NIL projection shows the percentage of population from 2005 – 2035 showing the past trend and the future projection of each NIL.
Group 07
The information begins with the general information of the region. The city of Milan (Comune di Milano) is under the administrative Province of Milan and located in the Region of Lombardy. Based on the data available on istat.it, the province of Milan is the most populated area compared to other provinces in the Lombardy Region with the percentage of 32,30%. Progressing deeper into the scale of the city, we observe the past trend of the city of Milan. We are able to observe a significant decrease in the population between 2012-2014. It is very clear that the growth rate between 2012 and 2013 became – 9,02%. However, there is a gradual increase of the city’s population from 2005 onwards.
the newest data available on sisi.comune.milano.it with the percentage of 19,77%. This data shows an increase of 3.34% from 2010. The analysis of each municipality came to a conclusion that the Second Municipality has the highest percentage of foreigners in the area with 29,43% of the total Second Municipality. M9 is second with 24,34% of the population being foreign. The past trend of Second Municipality also shows the same gradual increase of the population of foreigners. 2018 presents the highest percentage of population yet with an increase of 5,16% from 2010. The next step is to determine the diversity level on each NILs of Second Municipality. We are able to see from the infographic that NIL 20 (Loreto) presents the highest
5
35,00%
32,30%
30,00% 25,00% 20,00% 15,00%
12,58%
11,70%
8,69%
10,00%
5,96%
3,57%
5,00%
3,36%
2,29%
8,86% 5,43%
4,10%
1,80%
Va re se
So nd rio
a Pa vi
za
M on z
aa
nd
Br
ian
an to va M
Lo di
Le cc o
C re m on a
Br es ci a
om o C
am o Be rg
M
ila n
0,00%
The population percentage in each province of the Lombardy Region (2018) source: istat.it 45,50%
45,02%
45,00%
43,50%
44,03%
44,00%
44,16%
44,50%
2015
42,91%
42,54%
2014
42,00%
42,66%
42,53%
42,50%
43,14%
43,00%
41,50% 41,00% 2011
2012
2013
2016
2017
2018
The population percentage of the city of Milan in comparison to the province of Milan (2018) source: istat.it and sisi.comune.milano.it
2018
1,04%
2017
0,90%
2016
0,64%
2015
0,68%
2014
-0,24% -0,92%
2013
1,83%
2012 1,44%
2011 2010
1,24%
-1,5%
-1,0%
-0,5%
0%
0,5%
1,0%
The growth percentage of the city of Milan from 2010 - 2018 source: sisi.comune.milano.it
6
1,5%
2,0%
We may observe from the graphics presented in this section as an overall condition of the region and the city of Milan. Based on the first line chart presented above, we are able to see that the province of Milan presents the highest percentage of population compared to other provinces in Lombardy Region with a high mark of 32,30%. Diving deeper into the city of Milan, we are able to show the population percentage of the city of Milan. We are able to see that there is a significant decline in population between 2012-2014. However, from 2014 forward, the graphic shows a promising increase of population until 2018.
16%
16% 13,46%
13,46%
13,50%
12,58%
12,58%
10,84%
9,08%
11,58%
7,06%
4%
9,08%
6% 8%
10,84%
11,58%
7,06%
8% 10%
10,33%
11,62%
10% 12%
10,33%
11,62%
14% 12%
13,50%
14%
6%
2%
4%
0%
M1
2%
M2
0%
M1
M3
M4
M5
M6
M7
M8
M9
The percentage of population of each municipalities (2018) M2 M3 source: M4SISI Milan M5 M6 M7
M8
M9
The percentage of population in each municipalities (2018) The percentage of population of each municipalities (2018) source: sisi.comune.milano.it source: SISI Milan
1400
1
0
2000
M2
M3
M4
M5
M6
M7
M8
893,58
893,58
787,93
8
559,46
M1
4 6
9
420,87
4000
825,13559,46
6000
8
5
420,87
2000
787,93
825,13 9
7
780,61
8000
998,39
4000
3
6
Group 07
6000 1000
1045,21
2
4
5
7
780,61
1
998,39
1200 8000
3
1283,53
1000
2
1045,21
1400
1283,53
1200
M9
The density of each municipalities in Milan (2018)
The density and rank source: of municipalities of Milan (2018) sisi.comune.milano.it source: SISI Milan
0 M1
Area (km ) M1 M2 2
94,2687
M2
126,2855 The
M3
144,3424
M4
206,9548
M5
M3Population M4(people) M5 98.531
Density (people/km ) M6 M7 M8 2
1045,21
162.090 1283,52 density and rank of municipalities of Milan (2018) 144.110 SISI Milan 998,39 source:
Rank
M9 2
1 3
780,61
7
299,5886
126.089
420,87
9
M6
183,3622
151.298
825,13
5
M7
313,6342
175.465
559,46
8
M8
239,0648
188.367
787,93
6
M9
210,1349
187.773
893,58
4
aa 2019-2020
The density information of each municipalities (2018) source: sisi.comune.milano.it and geoportale.comune.milano.it
161.551
The next phase is to present the demographic information on the scale of municipalities. The first line chart presents the population percentage of each municipalities. It is observable that M8 (municipality eight) places the first position with 13,50%. On the contrary, M2 presents the most densely populated municipality in Milan with around 1.283 people in each square kilometre of land. The detail information is provided in the table on the left.
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No.
7
11,80%
10,91%
11,00% 10,80%
11,62%
11,52%
11,32%
11,31%
11,27%
11,09%
11,20%
11,40%
11,40%
11,46%
11,60%
10,60% 10,40% The population percentage of Second Municipality from 2010 - 2018 (%) source: sisi.comune.milano.it
21,19%
25%
17,49%
20%
8,16%
7,39%
5%
12,20%
10,78%
9,01%
10%
13,76%
15%
0
10
11
12
13
16
17
19
20
The population percentage of Second Municipality’s NILs (%) source: sisi.comune.milano.it
30.000
25.000 20.000
0
10
11
12
13
18.201,74
6 8
7.200,32
7
9.824,58
15.627,04
4
8.968,32
5.000
17.484,95
10.000
5
12.425,47
15.000
2
3
16
The density of second municipality’s NILs (people/km2) source: sisi.comune.milano.it
8
26.011,04
1
17
19
20
The first line chart presents the population percentage of Second Municipality. We may conclude that the trend of the population is steadily increasing in the Second Municipality with the highest percentage yet at the present date. The second line chart shows the population percentage on the scale of NILs. Based on the information, NIL 20 (Loreto) is the highest populated NIL in Second Municipality with 21,19%. The density also shows the same data. First place is NIL 20(Loreto) with 26.011 people/ km2 followed by NIL 19 (Padova) and NIL 11 (Isola).
M9
M2
M8
17
16
M3 M7
13
M1
19 12
M4 M6
20
11
M5
10
7%
8%
14%
22%
The population map of the city source: sisi.comune.milano.it
Group 07
M9
M2
M8
17
16
M3 M7
13
M1
19 12
M4 10
1.300 people/km2
7.000 people/km2
aa 2019-2020
The density map of the city of Milan source: sisi.comune.milano.it and geoportale.comune.milano.it
28.000 people/km2
400 people/km2
20
11
M5
Urban Design Studio
M6
9
19,33%
2014
2015
2016
2017
19,77%
19,03%
2013
19,05%
19,52%
2012
18,76%
19,13%
16,43%
15,00%
17,65%
20,00%
10,00%
5,00%
0,00% 2010
2011
2018
The foreigner’s population percentage in the city of Milan from 2010 - 2018 source: sisi.comune.milano.it
35%
1
29,43%
5%
M5
7
19,38%
M4
3
4
18,95%
15,12%
10%
9
12,30%
15%
8
6
16,30
5
20%
24,34%
2
17,82
25%
19,58%
30%
0%
M1
M2
M3
M6
M7
M8
M9
The foreigner’s population percentage in each municipalities of Milan (2018) source: sisi.comune.milano.it
35%
29,43%
28,82%
28,12%
20 14
28,57%
28,76%
20 13
28,52%
28,30%
20 12
20%
24,27%
25%
26,13%
30%
15% 10% 5%
The foreigner’s population percentage in Second Municipality from 2010 - 2018 source: sisi.comune.milano.it
10
20 18
20 17
20 16
20 15
20 11
20 10
0%
The diversity of the Second Municipality is an important aspect in our investigation. Based on our hypothesis, Second Municipality is the most diverse area in Milan. Our investigation on the statistic of the city came to a conclusion that the Second Municipality is indeed the most diverse area in Milan with 29,43 percent. The second position is M9 24,34 percent of foreigners, just roughly 5 percent behind Second Municipality.
7,32%
35% 30%
6,05%
25% 20%
2,00%
1,82%
2,42%
5%
2,05%
2,50%
10%
3,23%
15%
0%
10
11
12
13
16
17
19
20
The foreigner’s population percentage in Second Municipality NILS (2018) source: sisi.comune.milano.it
10.000 8.981
9.000 8.000 7.000
6.291
6.000 5.000 3.445
3.319
3.000
Group 07
4.000
3.100
2.000
2.211
2.305
13
16
1.768
1.000 0
10
11
12
17
19
20
The foreigner’s population density in Second Municipality NILs (2018) source: sisi.comune.milano.it and geoportale.comune.milano.it
M8
M2
17
16
M3 M7
M1
19 12
M4 M6 M5
10
More Diverse
Less Diverse
More Diverse
aa 2019-2020
Less Diverse
20 Loreto
11
To further conclude the diversity level of the Second Municipality, the observation was made on the NIL level of the Second Municipality. The graphic shows that NIL 20 (Loreto) is placed on the first rank with 7,32% of the population are foreigners. The last map presents the conclusion of the diversity aspect that the NIL 20 (Loreto) is the most diverse area compared to the whole city of Milan.
13
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M9
The map of diversity in the city of Milan source: sisi.comune.milano.it
11
80% 72,37%
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
7,43%
7,41% 7,20%
4,17% 0,07% -2,23%
2010
7,60% 0,45%
7,55%
5,19% 4,10%
3,85%
4,96%
5,05%
5,48% 5,00%
-1,00%
2015
2020 M1
M2
2025 M3
2030
2035
The high population projection (2010 - 2035) 8%
7,43% 6,85%
6% 4,42%
4,17%
3,97%
4%
3,51%
3,45%
2,99% 3,46%
3,91% 3,79% 3,26%
2,97% 2,51%
2% 0,45%
0%
0,07%
-1,00%
-2% -2,23%
-4%
2010
2015
2020 M1
2025 M2
2030
2035
M3
The middle population projection (2010 - 2035) 8%
7,43% 6,85%
6% 4,42%
4%
3,97% 3,45%
4,17%
2,97%
3,91% 3,26%
2,51%
3,30%
2,62%
2%
2,27%
2,50%
0,45%
0%
0,07% -1,00%
-2% -2,23%
-4%
2010
2015
2020 M1
2025 M2
M3
The low population projection (2010 - 2035)
12
The projection of population growth from three different municipalities (2010 - 2035) source: sisi.comune.milano.it
2030
2035
Three different images are shown on the left side. Each line chart presents information of the growth percentage projection of three different municipalities in Milan. The chosen municipalities are picked according to their density rank from the previous graphic. M1 represents Municipality One, M2 represents Municipality Two and M3 represents Municipality Three. Each set of diagram informs three different scenario available in the city data, high projection scenario, middle projection scenario and low projection scenario. In conclusion, it is observable that M2 has the highest and most steady growth percentage compared to M1 and M3.
50% 40,76%
40%
30%
26,22%
20%
16,27%
15,48%
18,63%
10%
14,41%
13,22%
6,99%
7,95%
8,08%
12,41% 6,55%
12,95%
14,31%
11,27% 11,13% 7,17%
0% -5,90%
-10% 2010
2015
2020 M1
2025 M2
2030
2035
M3
The high projection of the foreigner’s population (2010 - 2035) 50% 40,76%
40%
30% 18,63%
14,81% 11,25%
10%
Group 07
20%
26,22%
12,57% 12,41%
9,42% 6,55%
5,37%
0%
8,78% 7,68% 6,95%
8,08%
3,42%
2,81%
2025
2030
2,55%
-5,90%
-10% 2010
2015
2020 M1
M2
2035
M3
The middle projection of foreigner’s population (2010 - 2035)
40,76%
40% 30% 20%
26,22% 18,63% 14,53% 10,28%
7,74%
5,20%
12,41%
2,70%
0,07% 0,12%
0,09%
0,07%
-5,90%
-10% 2010
2015
2020 M1
2025 M2
2030
2035
aa 2019-2020
0%
6,73% 1,79% 0,06%
2,02%
10%
The line charts present the projection of growth for the population of foreigners in Milan. The graphic creaets a comparison between M1, M2 and M3 to understand the diversity level. Based on the projection data, we are able to see a slope of the population growth in the next 25 years. The percentage of growth of every projection is decreasing gradually each year. However, the growth rate of the foreign population is still positive in the upcoming years.
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50%
M3
The low projection of foreigner’s population (2010 - 2035)
The projection of foreigners growth from three different municipalities (2010 - 2035)
13
Percentage of Population Projection NIL 10 (Centrale)
Legend
12%
P ∆R % D
10%
= (2035) population = (2035) population - (2018) population = Variation of residents (∆R/2018 population) = Population / NIL Area (people / km2)
8%
P 6% 4%
∆R
%
D
High
26.515
7180
37,13%
16.996,79
Middle
26.515
7180
37,13%
16.996,79
Low
24.211
4876
25,22%
15.519,87
2%
Population Comparison (2018 and 2035)
0% 2005
2010
2015 High Projection
2020 Middle Projection
2025
2030
2035
Low Projection
Percentage of Population Projection NIL 11 (Isola) 12,00% 11,80% 11,60% 11,40%
P
∆R
%
D
11,20%
High
31.612
8.480
26,83%
23948,48
11,00%
Middle
29.574
6.442
21,78%
22.404,55
Low
28.682
5.550
19,35%
21.728,79
10,80%
Population Comparison (2018 and 2035)
10,60% 10,40% 10,20% 2005
2010
2015 High Projection
2020 Middle Projection
2025
2030
2035
Low Projection
Percentage of Population Projection NIL 12 (Maciachini - Maggiolina) 14,00% 13,50% 13,00% 12,50%
P
12,00% 11,50% 11,00% 10,50%
%
D
High
31.284
5.109
16,33%
18732,93
Middle
29.352
3.177
10,82%
17.576,05
Low
28.534
2.359
8,27%
17.086,23
Population Comparison (2018 and 2035)
10% 2005
2010
2015 High Projection
14
∆R
2020 Middle Projection
2025 Low Projection
2030
2035
Legend
Percentage of Population Projection NIL 13 (Greco)
P ∆R % D
7,60%
= (2035) population = (2035) population - (2018) population = Variation of residents (∆R/2018 population) = Population / NIL Area (people / km2)
7,50% 7,40%
P
7,30%
∆R
%
D
7,20%
High
26.515
7180
37,13%
16.996,79
7,10%
Middle
26.515
7180
37,13%
16.996,79
7,00%
Low
24.211
4876
25,22%
15.519,87
6,90%
Population Comparison (2018 and 2035)
6,80% 6,70% 6,60%
2005
2010
2015 High Projection
2020 Middle Projection
2025
2030
2035
Low Projection
Percentage of Population Projection NIL 16 (Viale Monza)
13,90% 13.80%
P
13.60%
∆R
%
D
13.50%
High
35.922
+6.393
21,65%
11.934,22
13.40%
Middle
22.974
+4.445
15,05%
11.287,04
13.30%
Low
33.034
+3.505
11,87%
10.974,75
13.20%
Group 07
13.70%
Population Comparison (2018 and 2035)
13.10% 13.00% 12,90% 12,80%
2005
2010
2015 High Projection
2020 Middle Projection
2025
2030
2035
Low Projection
Urban Design Studio
Percentage of Population Projection NIL 17 (Adriano) 10,00% 9,00% 8,00% 7,00% 6,00%
5,00%
P
∆R
%
D
High
21.273
+3.765
+21,50%
8.754,32
3,00%
Middle
20.001
+2.495
+14,24%
8230,86
2,00%
Low
19.374
+1.866
+10,66%
7972,84
1,00% 0,00%
Population Comparison (2018 and 2035)
2005
2010
2015 High Projection
2020 Middle Projection
2025
2030
aa 2019-2020
4,00%
2035
Low Projection
15
Percentage of Population Projection NIL 19 (Padova)
Legend P ∆R % D
18,00%
= (2035) population = (2035) population - (2018) population = Variation of residents (∆R/2018 population) = Population / NIL Area (people / km2)
17,80% 17,60%
P
17,40%
∆R
%
D
+8.326
+22,18%
22.260,68
17,20%
High
45.857
17,00%
Middle
41.993
+4.462
+11,89%
20.384,95
16,80%
Low
40.680
3.149
+8,39%
19.747,57
16,60%
Population Comparison (2018 and 2035)
16,40% 16,20% 16,00% 15,80% 2005
2010
2015 High Projection
2020 Middle Projection
2025
2030
2035
Low Projection
Percentage of Population Projection NIL 20 (Loreto)
23,00%
P
22,50% 22,00% 21,50%
%
D
High
61.287
+15.831
+34,83%
+35.021,14
Middle
56.399
+10.943
24,07%
+32.228,00
Low
54/837
+9.381
20,64%
+31.335,43
Population Comparison (2018 and 2035)
21,00% 20,50%
2005
2010
2015 High Projection
16
∆R
2020 Middle Projection
2025 Low Projection
2030
2035
Group 07
Urban Design Studio
aa 2019-2020
17