HOME ASSIGNMENT 1
DEMOGRAPHY, MOBILITY AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION CONSUMPTIONONAN ANALYSIS ON ETHIOPIA ETHIOPIA AND VENEZUELA TRANSPORT PLANNING AND PERFORMANCE PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT
ASHENAFI AREGAWI WELDEMICHAEL FRANCISCO FURTADO SÍLVIO CORREIA CASTANHEIRA
Demography, Demography, mobility and energy consumptionconsumption- an analysis on Ethiopia and Venezuela
SUMMARY 1 2
Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 1 Venezuela ........................................................................................................................... 1 2.1 Country profile ........................................................................................................... 1 2.2 Demography ............................................................................................................... 2 2.3 Mobility ...................................................................................................................... 5 2.4 Energy consumption in transport sector ..................................................................... 5 3 Ethiopia............................................................................................................................... 6 3.1 Country profile ........................................................................................................... 6 3.2 Transport Profile ......................................................................................................... 7 3.3 Demography, migrations and urbanization ................................................................ 7 3.4 Traffic and demography ............................................................................................. 9 3.5 Economy and GDP evolution ................................................................................... 10 3.6 Traffic and GDP ....................................................................................................... 11 3.7 Energy....................................................................................................................... 12 3.8 Price and fuel consumption ...................................................................................... 13 3.9 Forecasts ................................................................................................................... 14 3.9.1 Population ............................................................................................................. 14 3.9.2 GDP ...................................................................................................................... 15 3.9.3 Transport............................................................................................................... 17 4 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 17 5 References ........................................................................................................................ 19
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Demography, Demography, mobility and energy consumptionconsumption- an analysis on Ethiopia and Venezuela
1 Introduction The purpose of this assignment is, for a given region, to make an analysis on the Demographic trends, Mobility patterns, Energy consumption and efficiency use, Economic indicators (namely the GDP) and cross this data to detect the correlations between all this indicators. Doing this cross analysis should also allow us to better understand the various underlying factors that affect the transport sector and mobility patterns. Based on this we will produce forecasts for short and medium term for the total population, age structure (age pyramids), overall mobility and energy consumption transport. To produce our assignment we combined three different approaches, namely, mobility forecast models based mainly in GDP evolution1, effect of demography changes in the travel patterns2 and the paradigm shift necessary to achieve sustainability in the long run3. We also took in account the social and economic specificities of the regions we studied. We focused in two countries, first Venezuela, which is undergoing at this moment an extensive investment in public transport infrastructures. But we made a more in deep study about Ethiopia, were we have a scenario that is almost the mirror image of the challenges faced in Western Europe. 2
Venezuela
2.1
Country profile
Venezuela is a South American country with some of the largest proven oil and iron deposits. It is composed by 23 states and 85% of the country’s population lives in urban areas in the north of the country, where’s also situated the capital Caracas. This paper starts by providing some basic data on the population, GNI, area and the capital city.
Figure 1 – Country location
1
The future mobility of the world population, Andreas Schafer, David G. Victor Demography and Transport - Assumptions and Expectations about future Developments, Bastian Chlond 3 Is Paradigm Shift too Difficult in U.K. Transport?, David Banister 2
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Demography, Demography, mobility and energy consumptionconsumption- an analysis on Ethiopia and Venezuela
Features
Value 27,93 million
Population (29,9 hab/sq km) 201.146,30million USD$
World Continental Source rank Rank 46 5 Instituto Nacional De Estadística 95
12
(7.320 USD$ per capita)
79
1
Area
912,05 sq km
33
6
Capital (Caracas)
5,100 million
133
15
GNI
World bank Instituto Nacional De Estadística Instituto Nacional De Estadística
Table 1- 2008 General data
From the Table 1 in can be seen than Venezuela has a reasonably large population. Its evolution on the different aspects will be the subject of the next topics. 2.2
Demography
The topic will be started by displaying the basic data about demography: such as, fertility and mortality rates, distribution by age groups (age pyramids) and its evolution on the recent past. The forecasts for the short and medium terms will also be included. The Instituto Nacional de Estadística, (INE) is our main source for the data pertaining to total population. Data related to fertility rate, birth rate, death rate, life expectancy values, net migration rate and population growth rate are taken from the International Data Base from the U.S. Census Bureau. Venezuela Population
Population growth rate
38,000,000
3
y = 448265x + 2E+07 R2 = 0.9999
36,000,000
2.5 Growth rate %
32,000,000 30,000,000
2
1.5
28,000,000 26,000,000
1
0.5
24,000,000
Graph 1- Evolution of the population Source: Instituto Nacional De Estadística de Venezuela
2025
2020
Year
2015
2010
2005
2000
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
Year
1995
0
22,000,000
1990
Population
34,000,000
Graph 2- Population growth rate Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base
Venezuela is a country currently with around 28 million inhabitants. Analysing Graph 2 it’s visible a period of a significant decrease in the population growth rate until year 2000, but since them, the growth rate has been almost constant at around 1,5% per year; this rate is
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Demography, Demography, mobility and energy consumptionconsumption- an analysis on Ethiopia and Venezuela
expected to continue until 2010 and after that it will start to decrease once again to reach around 1.2% in year 2025. As a result Venezuela population is expected to reach around 31 millions in 2015 and 35.5 millions by the year 2025, as in can be seen in Graph 1. Venezuela Age Pyramid 2001 Census
3.5
75 - 79 70 - 74
3 Fertility rate %
65 - 69 60 - 64 55 - 59 50 - 54 45 - 49
Age
Total fertility rate per woman
4
85 + 80 - 84
40 - 44 35 - 39
2.5 2 1.5
30 - 34
1
25 - 29 20 - 24
0.5
15 - 19 10 - 14
1,000,000
500,000 0 500,000 Population Male Female
1,000,000
1,500,000
Graph 3- Age pyramid 2001 Source: Instituto Nacional De Estadística de Venezuela
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1990
00 - 04 1,500,000
1995
0
05 - 09
Year
Graph 4 – Total fertility rate per woman Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base
The 2001 age pyramid (Graph 3) has a typical aspect of a country that is in a transition from high natural growth rates to much lower ones, with the cohort in pyramid’s base smaller than the cohort above it. This is the result of the descend in the fertility rate (Graph 4) that has been continuously descending, although in a slower variation each year and has passed from 3.53
Life expectancy
82 80 78 76 74 72 70 68 66 64 62 60
Population drivers
35 30 25 20 ‰
15 10 5
Female
2025
2020
2015
2010
-10
Year Male
2005
2000
1995
-5
1990
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
0
1990
Life expectancy (years)
in 1990, to 2.86 in 2000, and is expected to reach around 2.32 in 2015 and 2.16 in 2025.
Births
Year Deaths Net migrants
Graph 5– Life expectancy Graph 6– Population drivers Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base.
If we look at life expectancy (Graph 5) we can see that it as been continuously increasing, although the death rate remains almost constant during the analysed period (Graph 6); this, in combination with the much faster decreasing in the births rate and a migration rate that is between -5‰ and 0‰, will make the Venezuela population a more aged population, with a ever increasing weight of older cohorts in comparison with the younger ones.
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Demography, Demography, mobility and energy consumptionconsumption- an analysis on Ethiopia and Venezuela
Graph 7-Age pyramid 2015
Graph 8– Age pyramid 2025
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base.
The result of the trends is a population pyramid with a rising square base, that will reach the 20-24 age cohort in 2015 (Graph 7), and the 20-34 age cohort in 2025 (Graph 8), and also a wider cohort bars in the top part of the pyramid. Urbanization level 100 98 96
%
94 92 90 88 86 84 82 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
80 Year
Figure 2 – Venezuela Demographic density
Graph 9- Urbanization Level
Source: Instituto Nacional De Estadística de Venezuela
Source: United Nations Secretariat
As already mentioned, Venezuela Population is located mainly in the north part of the country; as it can be seen in Figure 2, more than 50% of the country’s area has a population density below 9 inhabit/ Sq Km, only in the north part it can be fond densities ranging from 10 to 99 inhabit/ Sq Km in the districts further from the capital, and densities between 100 and 499 inhabit/ Sq Km in the districts near the capital. The peak density is reached in Distrito Capital where Caracas is located, with a density over 1000 inhabit/ Sq Km. Data from United Nations (Graph 9) shows that currently 93% of the country population is living in cities, and this percentage will grow to 95.2% in 2015 and 96.3% in 2025.
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Demography, Demography, mobility and energy consumptionconsumption- an analysis on Ethiopia and Venezuela
2.3
Mobility
Venezuela is still a country with a relative low motorization rate and due to the economic turbulence in some periods, the motorization rate had fell in the 90’s; only in the most recent years it has rise significantly (Graph 10). For the future, if no major turbulence occurs, it’s expectable that the rate will follow the trend started in late 90’s and increase, but because the lack of data, no reasonable projection can be made about the intensity of that increase. Motorization rate
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Vehicles/1000 people
120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50
Year
Graph 10 – Motorization rate Source: The World Bank and United Nations
Regarding traffic data, the only available figure is the transportation road traffic in 1996 and 1997, which is around 560 million vehicle kilometres. For the future it’s expected that the mobility increase, and not only in road sector, but also in other modes, specially due to the undergoing investments in the transport sector, namely, the rail line Ezequiel Zamora, the expansion of Caracas subway, the Valencia Metro , the Metro Los Teques, The Maracaibo Metro, the Barquisimeto Tram, The San Agostino Metrocable, among other’s. 2.4
Energy consumption in transport sector Energy consumption by sector
x10^3 diary equivalent oil barrels
800.00 700.00 600.00 500.00
54.00 72.00
49.00 77.00
242.00
282.00
291.00
344.66
337.00
340.00
340.00
2002
2003
2004
2005
48.89 68.42
48.31 73.98
46.00 70.00
249.54
248.76
346.31
2001
400.00 300.00 200.00 100.00 0.00
Industry
Transport
Year Residential Agriculture, services and others
Graph 11- Energy consumption
Graph 12-Energy consumption by sector
Source: EarthTrends
Source: Instituto Nacional De Estadística de Venezuela
Regarding energy, it can be seen that the total energy consumption has had a steady increase during time (Graph 11), although with some volatility in the trend due to economic
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Demography, Demography, mobility and energy consumptionconsumption- an analysis on Ethiopia and Venezuela
turbulence. Looking at Graph 12 it can be seen that the trend in most recent years as been a stagnation in the energy consumption, with small variations and without a constant direction. The effects of the economic turbulence can be seen especially in the consumption per capita that had remained with a long term trend almost constant., but with sharp reductions in some periods, followed by recoveries to the previous levels. As for the transport sector, the trend has been a slow increase of its share in the total energy consumption, representing in 2005 around 38% of the total, this value is already a high value, the world average is around 28%4, this may be due to the overconsumption caused by the very subsidized fuels in the country, which results in prices of 0.03 US$ for gasoline and 0.02 US$ for diesel. 3
Ethiopia
3.1
Country profile
Ethiopia is one of the oldest independent nations in Africa, and it is the third highly populated in the continent (UN).
Figure 3 – Country location
Features
value
World rank
African rank
Source
Population
79,221 million5
15
3
Central Statistics Agency of Ethiopia
GNI (Gross National Income)
17,565 million USD$
95
12
World bank
Area
1,104,300 Sq.kms
27
9
Capital (Addis Ababa)
3,147million
54
6
United Nations Statistics Division Central Statistics Agency of Ethiopia
Table 2- 2008 General data
Addis Ababa is the largest city and it is the financial as well as political centre of the country with more than 3 million inhabitants. The city represents 26% of the country’s urban population. The urban population represents 16% of total country population6. 4
International Energy Association (IEA) The population numbers are different in different sources; this will be discussed on the next topics 6 Urban Population Prospects 2007 Revision 5
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Demography, Demography, mobility and energy consumptionconsumption- an analysis on Ethiopia and Venezuela
3.2
Transport Profile
Despite being a country with a population of more than 79 million, Ethiopia is a landlocked with 95% of the movement on the country is by roads. The country possesses 780 km antiquated rail way line to the port of Djibouti, and quiet acceptable domestic air transport system. Ethiopia can count only on 36 496 km7 of roads (87% unpaved or gravel), around 153 000 operational road vehicles (2.22 vehicles/1000 people), a 780 km long railway line to the port of Djibouti which is quite old and a quite acceptable domestic air transport system. Its inland water way is not well developed. The road density figure 33 Km per 1000Km2 for Ethiopia is very small and well below 50Km per 1000km2 an average figure for Africa. Only 30% of the areas are connected with all weather roads in Ethiopia. Moreover 60% of the network in urban and 65% in rural areas are in poor conditions, which is a major hindrance for the economic development of the country.8 Vehicle.km of travel 6000000 5000000 4000000 3000000 2000000 1000000 0
Cars
Veic.Km
Buses Trucks Truck & Trailer Total 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Year Graph 13 – Ethiopian modal vehicle.Km
3.3
Demography, Demography, migrations and urbanization
The last census data available from the Ethiopian Central Statistics Agency (CSA) is for the year 1994. The result of the new census, which was conducted on the year 2007, is not announced yet. Notwithstanding the CSA produces some estimates from 1994 to the present. There are also data available from the United Nations, World Bank, CIA (Central Intelligence Agency) fact books and from the US Census Bureau. Both the UN and the US Census Bureau have long term estimates of total population and its age structure (age pyramids). We compare data from these several sources, focusing in the recent past9, they have some differences but the trend they show is similar, as can be seen in the following graphs.
7
Recently there as been investment in the transport Infrastructures, in 2008 there are 44 000 Km of roads (source Ethiopian Roads Authority). 8 Mobility in Ethiopia 2004 9 We included projections to 2010 because data from the UN are provided in 5 years intervals Transport Planning and Performance Assessment
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Demography, Demography, mobility and energy consumptionconsumption- an analysis on Ethiopia and Venezuela Net migration rate
Population
95
0.2
Rate%
70
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
-0.2
75
2002
80
2001
0
85
2000
Population (Millions)
90
-0.4 -0.6
65 60
WB
CSA
CIA
US. Census
2010
2009
2008
2007
Years
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
-0.8 -1
UN
Year WB
Graph 14- Ethiopia Population
CSA
CIA
US. Census
UN
Graph 15 – Ethiopia net migration rate Total Fertility Rate (children born/women)
Birth (Red) and Death (Gren) rate ‰
8 WB CSA CIA
30
US. Census
25
UN
20
WB CSA
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
US. Census
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
5 4
CIA 10
6
2002
15
7
2001
‰
35
2000
40
Children/Woman
45
Year
UN
WB
Year
Graph 16 – Ethiopia Birth and death Rates
CSA
CIA
US. Census
UN
Graph 17 – Ethiopia total fertility rate
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
Years
Life expectancy at birth(years) 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40
Year WB
CSA
CIA
US Census
Graph 18 – Ethiopia Life expectancy
UN Graph 19 – Ethiopia 2008 age pyramid
From the graphs depicted above it can be seen that the population growth rate of Ethiopia is very high, death rate is decreasing and life expectancy is slightly increasing, fertility is decreasing but it still is very high (between 5 and 6 children per woman), and the percentage of the young population is high (average age is about 18). In 1950 the population was only 20 million, in 60 years time this number has quadrupled to a current amount of 80 million people
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Demography, Demography, mobility and energy consumptionconsumption- an analysis on Ethiopia and Venezuela
Migration (external) is not significant and it’s reducing but the internal migration is always there; there is a movement of people from rural to urban areas. Ethiopia is largely under-urbanized, even considering African standards. According to the most recent projections of the Population Division of the United Nations, around 1975 only 9.5 % of the population lived in urban areas of at least 2,000 people. For the whole Africa, the percentage was 25.1%. Even, if in the last decades and very likely in the next ones, the urbanization rate will be faster in Ethiopia than in Africa. In 2030, the proportion of urban population in the country would be largely lower than in the Continent (35.3% versus 54.5%). Still, in 2030, the rural population (83 millions) could almost double the urban one (45 millions).10 This difference in population between the urban and rural areas doesn’t imply that the urbanization process will be slowed down, but the birth rate in urban area is much higher than that of the urban fertility rate11. Traffic and demography
70000000
5000000
65000000
4000000 3000000
60000000 55000000
2000000 1000000
50000000
0 1997199819992000200120022003 Years Population Cars Buses Trucks Truck & Trailer Total
Graph 20 – Vehicle.Km of travel vs. population
Population
6000000
Veic.Km
Population
Vehicle.km of travel vs Population 75000000
Vehicle.km of travel (Growth Rates) vs Population 74000000 30 72000000 25 70000000 20 68000000 15 66000000 10 64000000 5 62000000 0 60000000 -5 58000000 56000000 -10
Grow rates Vehicle.Km %
3.4
1998
1999
Population Trucks
2000 2001 2002 2003 Year Cars Buses Truck & Trailer Total
Graph 21 –Vehicle.Km growth rates vs. population
As can be seen in the above graphs, population and traffic have been both increasing, and there is an obvious relation between them, but we should be careful in our analysis, as we can see in the graph 21 that relates population and traffic growth rate. We should point that, the motorization rates (Veic/1000 hab) is one of the lowest in the world (there are 153 086 registered vehicles in all the country), most of the population is not in the position to afford transport costs. In Ethiopia only 2% of the population earns more than 1860$ per year and more than 50% of the population is under the poverty line which means they are not even in the position to feed themselves. More than 70% of the population use
10
Migration and Urbanization in Ethiopia, with Special Reference to Addis Ababa, Antonio Golini, Mohammed Said, et all 11 For more information on this see the ETHIOPIA DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEY 2005, Central Statistical AgencyAddis Ababa, Ethiopia Transport Planning and Performance Assessment
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Demography, Demography, mobility and energy consumptionconsumption- an analysis on Ethiopia and Venezuela
traditional means of transport, head loading, walking and animal back.12 Other key factor is that mobility (Motorized) is almost restricted to the urban areas. So the effect of age group in travel pattern is not fully meaningful since income (measured in GDP raise for instance) as such relevancy and because according to the forecasts there will be almost no great shifts in the age structure of the population in the medium term (see the forecast chapter). So this situation is in deep contrast with the already mentioned study of Bastian Chlond, thus more than half the population (55%) is bellow 19 years old, which is one year above the legal age to drive. There is still a positive correlation between flow of traffic and population growth, but mainly because the current population growth as been driving economic growth and an increase in GDP, and GDP per Capita. 3.5
Economy and GDP evolution
Ethiopia is still, and will remain in the medium term, a largely rural country; it is hardly surprising that agriculture is the main economic activity. In the graph bellow we can see the contribution each sector is making to the GDP in the recent years, right now Industry is contributing to the GDP at a greater pace13 then Agriculture, and it is expected that this trend will continue in the medium term. GDP Growth
GDP by Sectors (%)
% of GDP
80% 60%
39
40
40.3
39.6
13.6
13
13.4
16.5
47.4
47
46.3
43.9
40% 20% 0% 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2009/2010 Years Target Agriculture
Industry
Services
Graph 22 – GDP by sectors
Growth (%)
100%
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2005
2006 2007 2009/2010 Year Target
Graph 23 – GDP growth
Source: Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MoFED)
Like the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa, but at an even bigger rate, Ethiopia is experiencing a very high economic growth. This trend is to be maintained in the short term. The financial 12
Mobility on Ethiopian Roads, Ethiopian Roads Authority
13
Ethiopia: Building on Progress: A Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP), Annual Progress Report 2006/07 Transport Planning and Performance Assessment
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Demography, Demography, mobility and energy consumptionconsumption- an analysis on Ethiopia and Venezuela
crisis we live will have its impact, but since a great share of the recent growth is driven by domestic demand (investment and private consumption) that should help Sub-Saharan Africa to weather the marked slowdown anticipated among the high-income economies14. Still the fact that the economy is highly dependent on the Agriculture and most of it is subsistence farming makes the economy fragile. Whenever the rainy season goes wrong, the overall economy will be slowing; this puts some suspicion on the continuity of the economic advancement15.
$
GDP (per Capita) $ 260 $ 240 $ 220 $ 200 $ 180 $ 160 $ 140 $ 120 $ 100 1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002 Yea r
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Graph 24 – Ethiopia GDP evolution
From the graphs shown above, one can understood that the GDP has been increasing on the past years. In the 90´s there was a decrease in GDP, which combined with the constant population growth resulted in a sharp decrease in GDP per capita, this was due to the Ethiopia-Eritrea war. This is a warning to the future, and if new conflicts arise the forecasts (see the chapter 3.9) for the medium term may collapse. 3.6
14
15
Traffic and GDP
Prospects for the Global Economy, REGIONAL OUTLOOKS, Sub-Saharan Africa, World Bank Mobility on Ethiopian Roads, Ethiopian Roads Authority
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Demography, Demography, mobility and energy consumptionconsumption- an analysis on Ethiopia and Venezuela
For more than fifty years, transport has followed a growth paradigm that has linked economic growth with greater propensity and higher levels of mobility (David Banister). There is a strong relationship between economic development and transport demand. Economic growth implies both an increase in goods transport and more mobility, resulting in an increase in passenger transport. (ERA) From the above graphs we cannot make such a relation, one of the reasons might be the fact that Ethiopian economy is highly dependent on the rural residents (farmers) whose role in the total traffic is small in comparison with the urban residents. Not only the data we have is in limited time series, not long enough to make a correlation, but also, the flow of traffic is very small and it’s hard with this volume to draw patterns of behaviour, relations and rigorous forecasts. The following table was taken from the Federal network master plan, Ethiopian Road
Authority (ERA). It was suggested by consultants working for the ERA, at which they undertook a comprehensive network analysis study in 2003. Transport Demand Elasticities 2002-2010 2010-2025 1,6 1.5 1,1 1.1 1,3 1.2
Passenger Cars Buses Passengers Overall Freight: Light Commercial Medium trucks Heavy trucks Articulated vehicles Freight overall
1.2 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.2
1.2 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.1
Table 3 – Transport Demand Elasticities
(The approach on traffic forecasting of ERA was based on estimates of economic growth coupled with estimates of transport demand elasticity. Based on the World Bank economic Report of Ethiopia total GDP growth rate of 6% (medium scenario) per year for the period 2002 to 2025 came up with the presented demand elasticities).
If income elasticity of demand is greater than one, demand for the item increases as income increases. In accordance to this table, an increase in the income of the population increases the demand for passenger as well as freight transport demand. 3.7
Energy
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Demography, Demography, mobility and energy consumptionconsumption- an analysis on Ethiopia and Venezuela
20000
5.0%
15000
4.0% %
10000
veic.Km/Energ cons
25000
Ktoe
Ratio Veic.Km/Energy consumed in Transportation
Road Sector % of Total Energy Consumption
Energy consumption (ktoe)
3.0% 2.0%
5000
1.0%
Graph 25 – Energy Consumption
Year
2006
2005
Year Total Energy consumption (ktoe) Road sector Energy consumption (ktoe)
2003
0.0% 2000
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
0
7800 7600 7400 7200 7000 6800 6600 2000 2003 Year
Graph 26 – Road sector energy
Graph 27 – Transportation
share
Energy efficiency
For the last ten years energy consumption has been increasing and the energy consumption of the transport sector has been increasing at an even bigger rate. In parallel the population and GDP drive traffic growth, the energy consumption is expected to rise for the coming 20 years. In 2008, there was a nationwide energy chaos for the reason that the supply can’t satisfy the increasing energy consumption. Currently the government is undertaking a huge hydropower projects that expected to satiate the soaring energy demands. The efficiency use is hard to determine, but from the ratio above it’s suggested that there has been a decrease in energy efficiency use in transportation, this might be related to the growing weight, in these years, of the truck traffic volume. Most of the vehicles are aged, and not very Energy efficient (Graph 27). 3.8
Price and fuel consumption
Even though the price of oil was increasing over the years, the oil consumption has kept increasing. This may be due to the fact that the government has been continuously subsidizing the oil prices. Demand also far exceeds supply (and not only in transportation…), this together with the growing GDP per capita overcomes the effect of increased fuel prices.
1000 Ktoe
800 600 400 200
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
0
Road Sector Energy Consumption and Fuel Prices 100 Road sector 90 Energy 80 consumption 70 (ktoe) 60 50 Diesel price 40 (US $ 30 cent/liter) 20 10 Super Gasoline 0 price (US $ cent/liter) Year US $ cent/liter
1200
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Demography, Demography, mobility and energy consumptionconsumption- an analysis on Ethiopia and Venezuela
Graph 28 – Road energy Consumption and fuel prices
One of the consequences of the fuel increase might be a disincentive to car ownership, and even greater increase in the buses share of the traffic. 3.9 3.9.1
Forecasts Population
tousands
Population in
Population Forecasts 150,000 140,000 130,000 120,000 110,000 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000
UN me di um UN hi ght UN l ow UN cons ta nt US Ce ns us
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Ye a r
Graph 29 – Population forecast
There are forecasts available from the US Bureau and the United Nations Population Division; the United Nations model assumes different trends according to different evolutions of the fertility rate16. Both the “constant” estimate of the UN and the projection of the US Census Bureau assume that the fertility rate will be somewhat constant, and that is not true. Right now there is a slight decrease of the fertility rate, and with the increase of Urban population it will decrease even more, so we take as the most reliable the UN medium forecast, where the fertility rate is assumed to decrease slowly but steadily, although remaining at relatively high values. In a country where having more children is assumed as a gift, such an increase in population is predictable. Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
UN US Census Medium variant High variant Low variant Constant fertility variant 69,388 69,388 69,388 69,388 64,164 78,986 78,986 78,986 78,986 74,980 89,566 90,243 88,889 90,875 88,013 100,967 102,898 99,036 105,346 103,134 112,896 116,654 109,138 122,669 120,420 124,996 130,889 119,113 143,089 140,139 Table 4 – Population forecasts
Based on the projections by the UN, the following age pyramids are built for 2015 and 2025 From the age structures shown, it can be deducted that not only the population will increase as it will still be a very young population, the average age is expected to grow from 18 to 21 years for the short, and medium term forecasts17.
16 17
See in Annex 3 the different methodologies used to forecast the population UN Population Division, for this trends see the also the country profile in population by Earth Trends.
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Demography, Demography, mobility and energy consumptionconsumption- an analysis on Ethiopia and Venezuela
10,000
5,000 0 5,000 Population x10^3 Male Female
Age
Age
Ethiopia population 2015 UN Forecast 85 + 80 - 84 75 - 79 70 - 74 65 - 69 60 - 64 55 - 59 50 - 54 45 - 49 40 - 44 35 - 39 30 - 34 25 - 29 20 - 24 15 - 19 10 - 14 05 - 09 00 - 04 10,000
Ethiopia population 2025 UN Forecast 85 + 80 - 84 75 - 79 70 - 74 65 - 69 60 - 64 55 - 59 50 - 54 45 - 49 40 - 44 35 - 39 30 - 34 25 - 29 20 - 24 15 - 19 10 - 14 05 - 09 00 - 04
10,000
5,000 0 5,000 Population X10^3 Male Female
Graph 30 – Age Pyramid 2015
3.9.2
10,000
Graph 31 – Age Pyramid 2025
GDP
Based on the World Bank and Ethiopian authorities estimates, it can be assumed with some level of confidence that the average growth rate in the short term (up to 2015) will be 7%. The medium term predictions are not so reliable, we adopt a more moderate growth rate of 6% for 2015 to 2025. With this we can make a forecast for GDP evolution and cross it with the population forecast, to see the GDP per capita evolution. Total Energy consumption (ktoe) vs Population
GDP (per capita)
2
R = 0.9975
22000
$ 500 Ktoe
GDP per capita ($)
y = 0.0003x - 706.6
23000
$ 600
$ 400
21000 20000
$ 300
19000
$ 200
18000 17000
$ 100
60,000,000
$0 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year Graph 32 – GDP per capita forecast
65,000,000 70,000,000
75,000,000 80,000,000
Pop Tota l energy cons umpti on Li nea r (Tota l energy cons umpti on)
Graph 33 – Energy consumption vs. Population Source: UN Population forecasts
The data suggests there is a strong correlation between the population growth and energy consumption. As it is showed on the graph above the relationship between these elements is almost linear. From this we will make a forecast on energy consumption. This forecast as a very high statistical correlation. More over the actual and future trends of population and
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Demography, Demography, mobility and energy consumptionconsumption- an analysis on Ethiopia and Venezuela
economic growth suggest that the underlying factors behind the energy consumption grow will continue. We have pointed out that the traffic and the population is expected to grow for the coming 15 or 20 years. Realizing that the share of transport in the total energy consumption is getting higher for the past years, we can be sure that the transportation industry share in energy consumption will keep growing. We draw two scenarios for this energy increase. In the first we assume that in the short term the energy sector consumption will maintain is growth rate and in the medium term it will increase at a slightly slower pass (due to increase in energy efficiency in transportation). In the second scenario we use the actual growth rate for the all period.
Population, Year total
2010 2015 2020 2025
86566000 100967000 112896000 124996000
Rate of Rate of Road Road Total Road sector Road sector Sect Road Sect Energy Energy Energy Energy Sector % Energy consumption consumption consumption growth of Total growth (ktoe) (ktoe) (ktoe) (Scenario (Scenario 1) 2) 25263.2 1517 6.00% 1517 10% 29583.5 2443 8.3% 2443 10% 33162.2 3426 10.3% 3934 7% 36792.2 4805 13.1% 6336
Road Sector % of Total 6.0% 8.3% 11.9% 17.2%
Table 5 – Forecast in energy consumption
Scenario 2
Ktoe
Ktoe
Scenario 1 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year Total Energy consumption (ktoe) Road sector Energy consumption (ktoe) Graph 34 – Scenario 1 energy consumption forecast
Transport Planning and Performance Assessment
40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year Total Energy consumption (ktoe) Road sector Energy consumption (ktoe)
Graph 35 - Scenario 2 energy consumption forecast
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Demography, Demography, mobility and energy consumptionconsumption- an analysis on Ethiopia and Venezuela
3.9.3
Transport Vehicles/1000 inhab
3.50 y = 0.0467x + 1.4943
‰
3.00
2
R = 0.9838
Veículos/ 1000 hab
2.50
Linear (Veículos/ 1000 hab)
2.00
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1.50 Year Graph 36 – Motorization rate evolution and forecast
With the available data, the only meaningful projection we were able to make to access the evolution of overall mobility, was from the number of vehicles and population relation. It has been growing at a very steady rate. Besides this, there are some existing trends difficult to model in the future quantitatively. Still we can assume that there will be a sharp increase in the transportation sector (Table 6). The Ethiopia Road Authority is reported to be receiving “a lion share” of the government budget, and Road development is at the top of the government list of priorities18. The aims is to increase the current 44 000Km road network to 200 000Km in 20 years. Year 2010 2015 2020 2025
Population 86566000 100967000 112896000 124996000
Vehicles/ 1000 hab 2,43 2,66 2,90 3,13
Total Vehicles 210208 268754 326868 391087
Table 6 – Vehicle and motorization rates forecasts
The share of public transportation (buses and taxis/mini bus), is expected to keep it’s position, the government strongly subsidizes the Bus system, the rising fuel prices will deter privet car ownership, and the income growth will make a difference but the great majority of the population will still not be able to afford the bought of a car. 4
Conclusion
The analysis results showed that the population, traffic, GDP and the energy consumption have been increasing, though at different rates. To satisfy the growing transport demand, the Ethiopian government is expected to implement huge projects in this sector which in turn is expected to attract more mobility. Some of the road projects are underway 18
“Ethiopia: Roads Authority to Get Two Billion Birr Supplementary Budget”, in allafrica.com
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Demography, Demography, mobility and energy consumptionconsumption- an analysis on Ethiopia and Venezuela
As the projections show, the population, energy consumption, GDP, traffic flow and the energy consumption are expected to grow on the coming 10 to 20 years. The energy consumption envisaged for the coming years is small and it is expected to be higher than the projections we made; it as been growing up to now as a linear function, but if economic growth continues its progression might become exponential. More over the total number of vehicles per inhabitant for projection we made yields a result that can be too conservative, as for energy if the actual trends persist the increase in the total number of vehicles is expected to be higher. All the projections have been made by assuming the current social and political conditions will stay stable for the years to come. In a continent where civil war is still a threat19; where the risk of epidemic diseases is still a concern and in a country were draughts have a devastating effect the current trends are impressive, and offer many opportunities, but are also very fragile. Generally speaking, there is a glimmer of hope for the Ethiopian economy in general and for the transport sector in particular as economic advancement is directly related with infrastructure development in a way that a better infrastructure will hasten the economic growth and building infrastructure creates considerable job opportunities. Finally it can be concluded that the paradigm shift can help developing nations to expand their infrastructure in a more efficient and sustainable way. Instead of trying to respond to demand by providing supply looking at the far future, it is better to look at versatile ways of planning which aim to the near future and can leave a space for future extension whenever required. We feel that the paradigm shift, which is supposed to replace the antediluvian “predict and provide� ideology, can’t be equally applied to developed and developing nations for the reason that transport infrastructure in some of developing nations like Ethiopia is far below any standards. In fact, in current developing countries, more than necessary, the paradigm shift in the use of resources is an obligation, thus they are developing in a very different world, were the competition for resources is much more intense, and the marginal cost to develop is by this way much more higher, which will induce the adoption of different targets, and more efficient ways to achieve the quality of live they pursue.
19 We already mentioned the effects of the Ethiopia-Eritrea war, and currently that is still an unsolved conflict, Ethiopia also as troops in Somalia, and there is some tension with Egypt.
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Demography, Demography, mobility and energy consumptionconsumption- an analysis on Ethiopia and Venezuela
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References -Central Statistical Authority of Ethiopia: http://www.csa.gov.et/ -Diagnostic Evaluation of Public Transportation Mode Choice in Addis Ababa, Mintesnot Gebeyehu and Shin-ei, Takano Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan , 2007 -EarthTrends, World Resources Institute: http://earthtrends.wri.org/index.php -ETHIOPIA DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEY 2005, Central Statistical Agency, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia -Ethiopia: Building on Progress: A Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP), Annual Progress Report 2006/07 Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MoFED) -Instituto
Nacional
de
Estadística,
República
Bolivariana
de
Venezuela:
Census
Bureau:
http://www.ocei.gov.ve/ -International
Data
Base
(IDB),
U.S.
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/country/veportal.html -International Energy Agency, data at: http://www.iea.org/Textbase/country/index.asp -Migration and Urbanization in Ethiopia, with Special Reference to Addis Ababa, Antonio Golini, Mohammed Said, et all, 2001 -Mobility on Ethiopian Roads, Ethiopia Roads Authority, 2005: http://www.era.gov.et/ -NationMaster.com, http://www.nationmaster.com/index.php -Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp -Prospects for the Global Economy 2008, Regional Outlooks, Sub-Saharan Africa, World Bank -State of Transport Sector Development in Africa, First session of the Conference of African Ministers of Transport, 21 – 25 April 2008, Algiers, Peoples Democratic Republic of Algeria
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