Issue 8 24/06/19
Weekly Magazine Unofficial Weekly Magazine for Football Index Traders
The End of the Top 6?
With some major question marks over the current top 6, and TV money helping the ‘smaller’ clubs close the gap, could we see some new faces in this season’s top 6? Back in the late 90s and early 00s, the Premier League was largely a two-horse race. Year in, year out, it was Roy Keane vs Patrick Vieira. Sir Alex vs Arsene. Manchester United vs Arsenal. Whilst there were certainly the odd pretenders that would threaten, the title always ended up in the same hands; the title was shared between the sides from 1996 through to 2004. In recent years, things have been slightly different. The top two extended to an often quoted top four, which has now extended to top six; Man Utd and Arsenal being joined by Chelsea, Manchester City, Liverpool and Tottenham. Such is the competition in the Premier League, it has taken a phenomenal Pep Guardiola side pipping Liverpool to become the first team to retain the title in 10
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to compete with - new stadium, leaving them and trump - other unable - or unwilling - to build top European clubs on the potential they have. in the battle for star There should therefore be signatures. With the nervous glances at the teams exception of Man below; what’s to stop any of City and Liverpool, them gathering momentum who deserve all the and breaking their way in to plaudits coming this exclusive party? Several their way, the gap clubs have shown promising no longer appears signs. Richarlison be widening; Everton have largely been the Current Price to every team truly feels closest challengers in recent years. £1.94 capable of beating years. The pursestrings have T h e any other. been loosened and, after an performances So while the of such clubs has top 6 made for thrilling titles races traditional that cast envious eyes from still lived up to their name in 2019, could Gibbs-White Italy, Germany and France. With the once-in-a-lifetime this season throw up Current Price miracle of Leicester put to one something different? £1.45 side, it has been considered Manchester United for several seasons now that and Arsenal are these are the 6 elite battling in need of serious jobs, at the top, with the rest of the rebuilding league consigned to varying hindered by only being degrees of a relegation battle, able to offer Europa barring their own miracle League football; Chelsea season. But could times be have lost both their star player and manager in changing? Much of the expansion the midst of a transfer leaving them has been put down to the ban, increased TV money. Yet with unable to strengthen; so-called smaller clubs able and Tottenham continue to profit from their share of the to withhold money billions on offer, even teams amidst the financial lower down the table are able restrictions of a brand
Bad Week
England U-21s: A late collapse against France is disappointing albeit excuseable, but to follow that up with a 4-2 loss to Romania in a must-win game is almost unforgivable. The next generation must do better.
Good Week
Harry Maguire: It’s always nice to feel wanted, isn’t it. Following a year-long flirtation with Manchester United, he could now be off to the other side of the city with league champions City. Not a bad move.
initial wave of unconvincing signings - a case of kid in a sweet shop, no doubt - they ended last season strongly, with the performances of Richarlison earning him a call up with Brazil. Leicester, meanwhile, continue to impress as everyone’s second favourite team following that fairytale 2016; Jamie Vardy (£0.57) showing no signs of slowing down and James Maddison (£2.90) ever improving. Wolves’ first season back in the Premier League was nothing short of exceptional, with Nuno Santos Espirito using his links to bring in an outstanding foreign contingent; Raul Jimenez (£0.73), Diogo Jota (£1.22) and Ruben Neves (£1.47) all looking comfortable along with exciting England prospect Morgan GibbsWhite. West Ham, meanwhile, are quietly building a team around wonderkid Declan Rice (£1.86) with the likes of Felipe Anderson (£1.15) and Issa Diop (£0.88), hoping to get back the momentum from their final season at the Boleyn a few years ago that saw them finish just 4 points off 4th place. It doesn’t stop with just these teams either; as we have seen before, many of the teams below are capable of springing a surprise. From FA Cup finalists Watford to Championship play-off final winners Aston Villa, the Premier League is at it’s greatest level yet. The continued influx of wealth
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17/06/19 5 x Media Day Media Buzz (First to Fifth) 1440 Paul Pogba 830 Neymar 500 Mohamed Salah 390 James Maddison Aaron Wan-Bissaka 350
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18/06/19 5 x Media Day Media Buzz (First to Fifth) 1120 Paul Pogba 920 Neymar Aaron Wan-Bissaka 610 390 Romelu Lukaku 370 Alexis Sanchez
22/06/19 5 x Media Day Media Buzz (First to Fifth) 700 Alexi Sanchez 650 Kieran Tierney Roberto Firmino 480 Aaron Wan-Bissaka 430 380 Neymar
19/06/19 5 x Media Day Media Buzz (First to Fifth) 1010 Neymar Aaron Wan-Bissaka 640 530 Paul Pogba 390 P.E. Aubameyang 360 Max Aarons
23/06/19 5 x Media Day Media Buzz (First to Fifth) 530 Paul Pogba 400 Christian Pulisic 390 Mohamed Salah 360 Neymar Aaron Wan-Bissaka 340
20/06/19 5 x Media Day Media Buzz (First to Fifth) Aaron Wan-Bissaka 840 Lionel Messi 690 Neymar 540 Paul Pogba 500 Kylian Mbappe 370
This Week 5 x Media all week ALL SUMMER! Footie: 100,940 +3,022
bodes that this will continue for a while yet. Things tend to even themselves out over the course
of 38 games, but with the rest of the league continuing to spend and improve, fans of the so called top six might just
have a few extra nerves come the opening weekend of the season. Bring it on.
Wonderkid Profile: Pablo Fornals 23 may be too old to be considered a wonderkid, but the stage is set for West Ham’s new arrival to light up the Premier League and show off his talents to a whole new audience. Style of Play: Technically excellent, Fornals has played in central midfield, on the wing and as a creative no.10, capable of starting attacks and creating chances for his team. Pacy and with quick feet, his skills are not the only thing fans will be looking forward to this season. His showreel of goals is quite exceptional: from a long-distance screamer vs Bilbao, a cheeky chip from outside the box at Real Madrid and an outrageous rabona against Huesca, he’s partial to displaying the odd bit of magic. Anyone fearing he is all style with no substance needn’t worry, however; averaging around 13km per game, he’s more than willing to put in his shift for the defensive work. What’s Been Said? Upon leaving Barcelona in 2018, club legend Andres Iniesta reportedly namedropped Fornals as his potential replacement; high praise indeed. Meanwhile, Guillem Balague has echoed these sentiments, stating his suprise that Champions League clubs did not make a move for Fornals. Already capped twice by the senior side - and surely with an eye on making a permanent breakthrough soon Fornals has also been one of the stars of Spain’s under-21 side that has sailed through to the semi-finals, scoring twice. Adapting to the Premier League can be Current Price tough but with bags of ability, an eye for the outstanding and an improving West Ham team, Fornals could be one of the transfers of the summer.
£1.18
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Football Index Guru
Guest Blog
Football Index Guru has been on Football Index since May 2018 and has a 67% ROI. Over the course of the summer, he will feature in a weekly guest blog. You can follow him on Twitter @IndexGuru. Part 2 of Football Index Guru’s Euro 2020 round-up. If you haven’t read part 1, make sure you catch it in last week’s issue! (Issue 7.) Last summer we saw Football Index implement their first dividends for Performance Buzz in an international tournament during the World Cup in Russia. With the focus of the platform on football in Europe we are likely to see FI implement buzz on the platform for the European Championships next summer. Two weeks ago there were 2 rounds of Euro qualifiers which have left a lot of teams having completed half of their qualifying fixtures. With many traders buying well in advance we thought we would look at which teams are in the best position to qualify for the tournament next summer. Group F: Spain have taken control of this group with 4 comfortable wins over their opposition, but it is Sweden and Norway who have gained automatic playoff places. Spain picked up 2 convincing victories over the weekend beating the Faroe Islands 4-1 and Sweden 3-0. Sergio Ramos (£1.04) scored in both of these games to become the 10th highest scorer in Spanish international history. He is also 2 appearances behind Iker Casillas in becoming Spain’s most capped player of all time. He could be crucial in the tournament next summer, not only in defence but also for his attacking and set-piece threat. Group G: Poland have shown their dominance in this group so far with 4 wins from 4, picking up wins over Macedonia and Israel last weekend. Krzysztof Piatek (£1.41) has taken the international stage by storm scoring 4 goals in his 6 appearances, 2 of which came in this weekends games and, along with Robert Lewandowski and Arkadiusz Milik, can form an extremely dangerous attack in the Euros next summer. Austria however will be a little disappointed with their start to the qualification campaign after starting with losses to the teams above them, Poland and Israel. They have returned victories in their 2 fixtures this week with Marko Arnautovic (59p) picking up 2 goals in the game against Macedonia, so will need strong return fixtures against Poland and Israel to secure qualification.
Group H: Group H has been opened up following this weekend’s results. Turkey started the weekend by shocking World Champions France, beating them 2-0, before then getting beaten by Iceland. France turned around from this defeat and beat Andorra 4-0. Youngster Kylian Mbappe (£5.58) scored in this win and has been incredibly impressive since his international debut. In his 33 appearances since 2017 he has scored 13 goals including the impressive World Cup run in 2018. None of the teams in group H won their Nations League group so there will be three teams competing for these two automatic spots. Group I: Group I is set up with 2 main contenders for the automatic qualifying spots. Scotland and Kazakhstan trail Belgium and Russia who have won their last 3 games each, with Belgium winning all 4. Romelu Lukaku (£1.50) scored twice in an emphatic 3-0 victory over Scotland. Lukaku’s 48 goals in 80 international appearances make him one of the most feared strikers on an international pitch as well as being Belgium’s top scorer in international history. Group J: Group J probably saw the greatest underperformance in the most recent round of European qualifiers with Bosnia and Herzegovinia losing both of their recent matches against Finland and Italy. These two sides are looking in great positions. Italy are undefeated thus far and look sure favourites to qualify from this group which is required having missed out on World Cup qualification 2 years ago. Italy’s main problem currently is finding the back of the net, with no player in their current ranks scoring more than 10 goals for the Azurri. Lorenzo Insigne (£1.17) is a key part of the attack but has struggled to score on the international stage with only 6 goals in 32 games, two of which came in last weekend’s victories over Greece and Bosnia. Finland have already secured a playoff spot but are competing for an automatic qualification spot. The Finns are led up top by Norwich striker Teemu Pukki who is likely to be IPO’d before the beginning of the new season. His 3 goals over last weekend’s fixtures have placed Finland in a strong position after their opening 4 games.