FI Weekly Mag Issue 012 - 22/07/19

Issue 12 22/07/19

Weekly Magazine Unofficial Weekly Magazine for Football Index Traders

How Will History Judge Gareth Bale?

Once the most expensive player of all time and with an enviable trophy cabinet, will Bale be considered one of the best of his generation?

Gareth Bale’s time at Real Madrid has been nothing short of sensational when considering his trophy haul. Since joining arguably the biggest club in world football for a record £86m back in 2013, he has become the most decorated British export, picking up four Champions League titles as well as one La Liga title and one Copa del Rey. Four Champions League titles in six years is outrageous enough, yet even this doesn’t tell the whole story: in the first final, he scored the extra-time goal to put the team 2-1 up on the night; in the second, he made the assist for the team’s only goal before scoring in the penalty

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has been quite different.

Persistent injury records have curtailed him from ever becoming the key man in the team, despite the flashes of brilliance he is capable of. He has Bale Ronaldo started marginally Current Price Current Price over half of Real’s £2.45 £2.80 league games over 6 years (133 out of 228) leaving him shootout; and in the fourth, he seemingly unreliable came off the bench to turn the to the ferociously demanding tie with a man of the match Madrid supporters, and performance, scoring two unable to step out of the goals - one an overhead kick shadow of Ronaldo that - to become the first substitute loomed so large. to score twice in a final.

He has struggled to warm And yet, despite such himself to the fans - and success since breaking the his teammates, too - by transfer record set by his new his seeming reluctance to teammate, a certain Cristiano embrace the Spanish culture.

Ronaldo - who would go on Shy and introverted, his failure to write his name as one of to speak Spanish - publically, the best in history as a 5-time at least - coupled with reports Ballon d’Or winner - Bale has of him choosing to spend time never been seen in the same away from his teammates category. Whilst he was the (and subsequently being standout player at a Tottenham nicknamed ‘The Golfer’ due side who he helped return to to his passion to play instead the Champions League, at of socialising) has led to him Real Madrid the perception be marginalised in some

Bad Week

Arsenal: Legendary manager Arsene Wenger lost a few friends towards the end of his reign, but the #WeCareDoYou campaign has garned over 100k signatures as fans point the finger at the board.

quarters: a stark contrast to the profiles of football’s other power players.

Time now looks set to be running out on Bale’s career in the limelight. Deprecated by boss Zinedine Zidane, a move away is on the cards, yet his astronomical wages of around £600k per week could prove a huge stumbling block. Manchester United will recall the disappointment of Alexis Sanchez (£1.32), whilst former club Tottenham would undoubtedly welcome him back with open arms, yet would go nowhere near such a figure. With continued concerns about his fitness, Paris Saint-Germain remain the only viable European option that can both offer the wages and level of football to take the risk, yet even they may be put off; particularly with the ongoing saga surrounding their own star, Neymar (£7.49). It therefore appears almost inevitable that Bale could be headed east, to join others swimming in riches in the Chinese Super League.

Regardless of whether Bale moves to Asia, will he ever truly be considered amongst the greatest of his generation, or

Good Week

Matthijs de Ligt: Secured his £67.5m move to Italian juggernauts Juventus. He will learn from the likes of Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci as the team seek to end their 23 year Champions League drought.

will he forever be consigned to the ‘promising-but-ultimatelyfalling-short’ category? Fans will always remember the moments of excellence he brought to games: his stunning hattrick against reigning Champions League holders Internazionale back in 2010, or his jaw-dropping show of speed to score in the Copa del Rey final, but those fond memories will be limited, forever morphing in to questions of just how much more he could have achieved had it turned out differently. A prodigious talent with both the trophy cabinet and the bank balance to prove it, Bale’s legacy is unlikely to be quite as fulfilling as it could have been.

Initial Player Offerings 18th July 2019

They may not have *quite* gone as planned, but there are several new players on the index...

Player Elliot Embleton Callum Robinson Kerim Mrabti Carlos Vinicius Merih Demiral Onel Hernandez Troy Parrott Takefusa Kubo Joe Lolley Teemu Pukki Gabriel Martinelli Renan Lodi Mathias Vargas Everton Soares

IPO Price £0.30 £0.50 £0.40 £0.50 £0.50 £0.70 £0.60 £1.00 £0.70 £1.00 £0.80 £0.70 £0.80 £1.10

Dividend Winners 15/07 - 21/07

15/07/19 5 x Media Day Media Buzz (First to Fifth) 820 Harry Maguire 550 Neymar 530 Kieran Tierney 420 Paul Pogba 350 Aaron Ramsey

19/07/19 5 x Media Day Media Buzz (First to Fifth) 660 Romelu Lukaku 620 Neymar 380 Paul Pogba 360 Matthijs de Ligt 320 William Saliba

16/07/19 5 x Media Day Media Buzz (First to Fifth) 1310 Harry Maguire 630 Neymar Kieran Tierney 460 380 Sebastien Haller 280 Gareth Bale

20/07/19 5 x Media Day Media Buzz (First to Fifth) Mason Greenwood 1100 1000 Neymar Romelu Lukaku 450 390 Rhian Brewster 390 Paul Pogba

17/07/19 5 x Media Day Media Buzz (First to Fifth) 660 Paul Pogba 630 Neymar 520 Harry Maguire 400 Marcus Rashford 390 Dani Ceballos

21/07/19 5 x Media Day Media Buzz (First to Fifth) 1790 Harry Kane 1460 Gareth Bale 830 Harry Maguire 620 Neymar 610 Eddie Nketiah

18/07/19 5 x Media Day Media Buzz (First to Fifth) Matthijs de Ligt 880 Eddie Nketiah 800 Harry Maguire 770 Paul Pogba 620 Neymar 570

This Week 5 x Media all week ALL SUMMER! Footie: 106,192

+948

Football Index Guru

Guest Blog

Football Index Guru has been on Football Index since May 2018 and has a 67% ROI. Over the course of the summer, he will feature in a weekly guest blog. You can follow him on Twitter @IndexGuru.

Winning Performance Buzz (PB) can be an excellent way of boosting profits within your portfolio. By having success on the pitch, your players may find their way to the top of the PB rankings and earn you dividends for each share you own. But what are the important factors to look at when assessing a player’s PB potential?

Key stats to look for in the Performance Buzz Season PB Average The Performance Buzz average of a player relates to the total number of PB points scored divided by the number of games that were played by the player in that time period. This gives traders an indication of the likely scores that they can expect from this player over a prolonged period of time.

PB Max / Peak The Performance Buzz Max/Peak quite simply refers to the highest score that a player has produced within a chosen time period. To win dividends it is typically good to look for players who can produce scores of >200 within the current understandings of the PB matrix.

Base PB One of the most interesting PB stats to look at in my opinion. Base score relates to a players PB score taking out the external factors that won’t be seen in each game including points for wins, goals, assists, game winning goals and clean sheets. Base scores can be given as an average over a period of time. A player who has a high average Base PB can be one that traders can expect to provide high scores in games where they can also add a win, goal and potentially even a game winning goal which would boost this score. Players with this high Base PB are suited to the play style based on the PB matrix and can be players who see the ball a lot, pass it on successfully a lot and can create play through crosses regularly.

Key stats within the Performance Buzz matrix

As of this week there has been no change to the PB Matrix since last season but there is the potential that stats such as successful dribbles or key passes could become a part of the matrix as seen in the recent PB matrix survey.

Goal / game-winning goal As with most football games the key component is the goal. A goal automatically gets a player a score of 40 points which is the highest score available on the matrix. The key part of the scoring matrix is the fact that the points stack. This means that in each goal you also get the points for a shot Everton’s Idrissa Gueye and a shot on target so for each goal you also gain (£0.54) averaged 4.3 an extra 8 points so in total that is 48 points. A game tackles per game last winning goal is also a key part to the matrix which offers season; the only player up an extra 40 points for the goal that is the crucial one in the top 5 leagues to is providing a victory. For example it could simply be the exceed 4 first in a 2-0 or could be the third in a 5-2. This is the stat that can lead to wild swings in the live performance buzz scoring as conceding a goal can lead to one player losing these 40 points and another gaining them.

Passes A key stat for many of the players with a high base but this can also work against some players who are creative and often lead to errors. For each wayward pass a player loses 3 points which requires 3 successful pass to match. For a player to make a positive structure in passes they must have a successful pass percentage of 75%. Players like centre backs and metronome midfielders benefit from this the most as their passes are often less risky and therefore are less likely to fail whereas attacking midfielders might try passes behind the defence which have a lower success rate but are required to win the game. Virgil van Dijk averaged 71 completed passes a game in the Premier League at 90% meaning that he would have a surplus of over 50 points in each game simply by passing the ball.

Crosses Another stat that heavily benefits from the stacking of PB. Even if a cross is unsuccessful you gain 3 points and if it finds a player from their team then an extra 4 points are given making 7 in total. This was extremely important for players who take set pieces as long free kicks and corners could be the basis for a strong PB score. For example, Lucas Digne averaged 8 crosses per game which give him a base of 24 to 56 points before considering crosses which lead to assists.

Tackles One of the key stats for defenders is that of tackles. One of the stats that jumps out is that of last man tackle which offers 17 points. On top of this there are an extra 5 points for each standard tackle completed. This doesn’t necessarily benefit defenders in top teams as they are very rarely being attacked and therefore don’t need to tackle a lot. This benefits teams who are under constant pressure must make tackle after tackle all game.

5 Questions With...

IRISHFI IRISHFI has been on Football Index since January 2019 and hosts the High Wide and Handsome podcast. You can find all of his podcasts and follow him on Twitter @IRISHFI Best Buy: I made over 100% from the Ajax boys with their unbelievable Champions League run this season, but my best trade is probably Seamus Coleman. I spotted him at 22p in late May and went big enough at him, he’s now sitting at a healthy 40p per future. It must be the green blood in my veins, but when I spotted our captain that cheap, I had to get involved.

Worst Buy: I have mentioned him a few times on the podcast, but it has to be Nabil Bentaleb.

I tried to be too clever too early in my football index journey and I got burnt. Basically what happened was that I tried to do a quick flip mid-game when he scored, but got greedy and held him for too long, when a bigger fish dumped. Thankfully I didn’t lose too much money, as I hadn’t committed much at that stage.

Biggest Regret: Dumping Neymar and Paul Pogba about a week into media madness. I didn’t realise just how much they would dominate MB over the summer. I’m not an eejit; I know they are the most expensive players on the index for a reason - but I just felt other transfers would dominate one day at a time and pick up more 3p dividend wins. I was very wrong. The players I put that money in to have done really well, but not as well as the big boys.

Best Tip: My favourite hold for next season is undoubtedly Raheem Sterling. He’s English, only 24, playing out of his skin for the champions of England and he has a bit of controversy around him. He has MB/PB and I feel there’s room for some decent CA yet. For those of you familiar with implied dividends on index gains reports, he won just 7p in PB divs last season, but based off his scores they would have expected him to win 18p, which shows how unlucky he was. I’m not saying he will be, but he’s one of the few players on the index who I feel could challenge for the title ‘King of the Index’ in the short to medium term.

Best Piece of Advice: Don’t overtrade! Commission is a silent assassin to your portfolio. When there’s a small drop in a player, remember why you bought him in the first place. Panic selling is poor trading: know why you are selling to do it with confidence. I’m not saying instant selling is wrong, as there are absolutely times when it can be utilised.

Please remember: Football Index is a gambling platform.

Do not put in more than you can afford to lose.

Please gamble responsibly.