Issue 11 15/07/19
Weekly Magazine Unofficial Weekly Magazine for Football Index Traders
Has the Transfer Market Gone Crazy? With transfers in excess of £50m becoming seemingly common place, with multiple players surpassing £100m, have fees become unsustainable for the future or will it continue to grow? Rewind 10 years and Real Madrid caused shockwaves around the globe with the signature of Cristiano Ronaldo, signed at a record-shattering £80m. Ignoring the signing of Kaka, who himself had broken the transfer record just a couple of weeks earlier, this represented a 71% increase on the record Zinedine Zidane had set back in 2001. For a man who has gone on to write his name as one of the best in history, it is poetic that the last man to smash the transfer record by such a margin is also held in such high regard: Diego Maradona, who’s transfer to Barcelona 27 years earlier was also a 71% increase on the previous record.
Follow us on Twitter @FI_WeeklyMag and join the discussion #footballindex
narrowly missed out on winning back-to-back Champions League titles. He had scored 91 goals in the last three seasons despite also playing as a winger, and at 24 years of age had Felix Ronaldo enough experience Current Price Current Price to prove his talent £3.20 £2.63 was genuine whilst yet to even reach his prime. Whilst such a vast sum It’s quite a contrast of money seemed barely to what £80m may get you believable then, in today’s this summer. One of the game it is increasingly heroes of England’s World commonplace. With mega- Cup run last summer, Harry rich oligarchs joining in to take Maguire (£2.37) is being a slice of booming television touted to join Manchester revenues, the last few years United for this exact fee. has seen clubs seemingly A talented defender just adding endless zeros to the entering his prime no doubt, end of their cheques. The but £80m seems excessive transfer of Neymar (£7.57) to for a man who has yet to even Paris Saint-Germain in 2017 taste European club football. (an increase of 125% on the And £80m doesn’t even previous record) hasn’t helped buy potential. Joao Felix is matters either. highly touted as having the At the time of Ronaldo’s potential to perhaps reach a transfer, he had just picked up similar level to his compatriot, his third Premier League title and as such has just secured in a row as the reigning World a £113m move to Atletico Player of the Year, and had Madrid. This, in spite of him
Bad Week
Newcastle: The much-despised Mike Ashley somehow managed to make himself even more unpopular with the Toon by allowing Rafa Benitez to leave the club, to seemingly be replaced with Steve Bruce.
having just one season of experience in a league that is not even considered to be one of the top 5. Sure, he could go on to become an excellent purchase, but it still has to be seen as a risky investment on the part of the Spanish club. Inflation is practically inevitable, and so the rise of the transfer fee is to be expected. The rate at which it has risen, however, is exceptional. 30 of the top 50 highest transfers of all time have occurred in the last two years, and 8 of the top 10. £60m is the new £20m. Top stars won’t leave for less than nine figures. With such vast sums being thrown around, investing in youth has almost become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Teams are looking to avoid paying huge sums by buying cheaper youth prospects, who they can mould into world-class stars and sell at a profit; yet, this has resulted in vast sums also being seen in such talents, Joao Felix a case in point. It is a trend that mirros the Index too: Jadon Sancho (£5.27, 46 top-flight appearances), Callum Hudson-Odoi (£4.46, 12), Mason Greenwood (3), Phil Foden (£3.59, 18), Rhian
Good Week
Dani Alves: Captained Brazil and named player of the tournament as they won their first Copa America title in 12 years on home soil. The most decorated player in history, he now has his choice of clubs.
Brewster (£3.30, 0) and Vinicius Jr (£3.15, 18) - as well as Felix himself - all feature in the top 20 most valuable players. Even traders are looking to take an expensive gamble on the biggest talents; high risk, but high reward. So what does it mean for the future? A crash may be feared yet, with an increasingly global audience bringing in more money, it seems unlikely; though individual clubs will still need to be wary not to fall in to any such traps of overpaying and underdelivering. But with both Neymar and Kylian Mbappe (£5.84) linked with moves that could exceed £300m, it would not be a surprise to see a player transfer for half a billion pounds in the not-too-distantfuture.
Greenwood Current Price
£3.64
Dividend Winners 08/07 - 14/07
08/07/19 5 x Media Day Media Buzz (First to Fifth) 1390 Neymar 830 Paul Pogba 560 Lionel Messi 420 William Saliba 300 Gabriel Jesus
12/07/19 5 x Media Day Media Buzz (First to Fifth) Antoine Griezmann 630 570 Paul Pogba 420 Sean Longstaff 400 William Saliba 380 Neymar
09/07/19 5 x Media Day Media Buzz (First to Fifth) 1540 Paul Pogba 950 Neymar Gareth Bale 520 420 Daniel James 380 William Saliba
13/07/19 5 x Media Day Media Buzz (First to Fifth) 1010 Paul Pogba 870 Romelu Lukaku Daniel James 790 Aaron Wan-Bissaka 380 360 Marcus Rashford
10/07/19 5 x Media Day Media Buzz (First to Fifth) 1090 Paul Pogba 430 Neymar 410 Romelu Lukaku Aaron Wan-Bissaka 340 310 Harry Maguire
14/07/19 5 x Media Day Media Buzz (First to Fifth) 880 Harry Maguire TBC Neymar TBC Daniel James Antoine Griezmann TBC TBC Paul Pogba
11/07/19 5 x Media Day Media Buzz (First to Fifth) Bruno Fernandes 590 Romelu Lukaku 440 Wilfried Zaha 390 Paul Pogba 390 Rhian Brewster 320
This Week 5 x Media all week ALL SUMMER! Footie: 105,244 +278
Football Index Guru
Guest Blog
Football Index Guru has been on Football Index since May 2018 and has a 67% ROI. Over the course of the summer, he will feature in a weekly guest blog. You can follow him on Twitter @IndexGuru. 5 Bad Transfer Rumours for Football Index Holders With under a month left before the start of the Premier League season there is still plenty of time to go in the transfer window. This week we will look at what type of transfer rumours will be bad for your players on the index. If these rumours start appearing about players in your portfolio it may be worthwhile getting out of your position.
5. Loan moves out of a Performance Buzz (PB) League Not a very common problem on the index but it is something that we have seen in the last season on the index. This could be a loan move from a PB League to a lower division or to another league that doesn’t have PB available. An example of this would be Jorge Moraes, owned by Monaco but on loan in the Brazilian League; his price has plummeted from a high of 42p to 24p. 4. Sideways moves Another hard one to explain but this is the type of transfer where a player moves from one club to another of a similar standard. It is easiest to explain through the example of Kostas Manolas, previously of Roma but who moved to Napoli. When this transfer was completed, it meant is would be unlikely to make another move for at least another year. Rumours over the past year or two had linked Manolas to clubs like Manchester United, so while he will still be in a good club in European competition, it has caused his price to fall from 65p to 54p. 3. Poor stylistic transfers A transfer where the style of the team really doesn’t suit the PB matrix can really kill the hype of a transfer. This was recently seen in the transfer of Joao Felix, who was being looked at by every big club in Europe. The possibility of a move to Real Madrid, Barcelona or Man Utd had the index in a flux. Yet when it was announced he was heading to Diego Simeone’s defensive Athetico his price plummeted from a peak of £3.90 to a low of £2.98. Traders felt his attacking PB returns could be held back by the counter-attacking feats of Atletico whose style doesn’t match up well with the PB Matrix.
2. Moves away from the Premier League Without argument the Premier League is the preferable league for a player to transfer to during the window for the chances of Media Buzz (MB). This is due to the paltform being based in the UK, meaning that not only are the media sources based here but the majority of traders will follow the Premier League, with free access to see their playing on the likes of Match of the Day week in, week out. When ‘King of the Index’ Paul Pogba was linked with a move away from Manchester United the Index hit panic stations. When the panic selling began his price was at a high of £7.24 and he reached a low of £6.68. This was simply due to rumours. Nothing concrete had been released but Pogba’s price has since recovered a little. Nonetheless, he will not reach his peak price until the end of the window in Europe and it is definite that he will remain in Manchester. 1.Moves away from a PB League A clear top bad rumour to hear about one of your holds is the potential of a move away from a PB League. Whether it be to the Portuguese League or to somewhere like China or Japan, a potential move away can kill the price of some otherwise good holds. The greatest example of this over the window is that of Marko Arnautovic who, since his move to China has been announced, has fallen in price to 39p. This is despite at the start of the window being 69p and having a peak during the season of £1.10. The price of these players falls because it takes away all possibility of that player ‘winning’. In China there is very unlikely to be opportunities for players to win MB dividends as these leagues are very unlikely to be covered by UK media sources. It is also impossible for these players to win any PB or IPD dividends as these are not covered by the matrix in these leagues. Another player that this has been affected is that of the formerly hugely rated talent Stephen El Shaarawy. Since the announcement of his unlikely move to China his price has fallen from 59p to 44p and as this transfer wasn’t widely reported it could potentially drop much further.
Please remember: Football Index is a gambling platform. Do not put in more than you can afford to lose. Please gamble responsibly.