For the second time this year, monthly dollar and transaction volume significantly trailed prior year figures and year-to-date average monthly volume figures. Limited inventory certainly continued to play a role in reduced volume but rising interest rates and a volatile stock market likely put additional pressure on transaction activity. August 2022 sales included 18 transactions totaling $55.5 million, a steep decline of 55 percent and 61 percent respectively from one year ago and well off of the $100M+ monthly volume previously posted in 2022. These sales brought year-to-date figures through August 31, 2022, to 252 transactions totaling $867 million. While this is well below the $1.18 billion tallied through this time last year, it’s handsomely above pre-2020 figures for the same period. The question is whether this reduced transaction volume is the beginning of a new trend as we approach the fourth quarter, typically among the strongest quarters of the year. Here are Fisher’s August Market Insights… REAL ESTATE ACTIVITY
New Contracts (August) 43 83 -48% f 81 Insights
HIGHEST
NANTUCKET
Avg. Months on Market 2.8 4.9 -43% f 5.6
BY JEN ALLEN REAL ESTATE
NANTUCKET
LONGEST
THROUGH AUGUST 2011–22 VolumeDollar Transactionsof# LAND BANK PURCHASE ©2022 FISHER REAL ESTATE MONTHLY SALES HIGHLIGHTS Dollar Volume per Quarter Q2Q1 # of TransactionsQ3
FISHER’S REVIEW
(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS
Active Listings (August) 160 161 -1% f 319
$9,200,000 2 BUCK HOLLOW WAY (10-LOT SUB) PRIVATE SALE $1,807,511 53 WASHINGTON STREET MARKETED FOR [191 Days] $5,450,000 76 MILLBROOK ROAD MARKETED FOR [11 Days] 1 AUG 22 Market
KEY MARKET STATISTICS SALE SALE
ALL PROPERTY CHANGEYOY 5-YEARAVG.
TYPES FY 2022 FY 2021 %
Months Supply of Inventory 3.5 2.3 51% d 9.7
Dollar Volume ($ in 000s) $866,948 $1,182,076 -27% f $761,787
Sale Price to Last Ask Price 97% 95% 2 d 95%
Transactions 252 432 -42% f 281
• Commercial property listings remained limited with just six listings as of August 31, 2022, while vacant land listings continued to be in short supply with just 12 listings. The five-year average for vacant land listings was 44.
Avg. Selling Price $4,212,891 $3,282,584 28% d $3,127,139
NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE
Market Insights
• As of the time of this report, September transactions measured just above $50 million. Based on this preliminary figure, September 2022 is also likely to significantly trail previous years’ figures but preliminarily show improvement from August activity. The 2022 market is certain to hit $1 billion so it is still a very vibrant year for the island’s real estate market. 5-Year (2018-22)Avg
Avg.
Volume
• Though Nantucket property inventory was 66 percent lower than the most recent peak in 2019, August 2022 represented the first monthly period since that time where same period inventory levels held steady. As of August 31, 2022, there were 160 properties listed for sale including residential (142), commercial (6) and vacant land (12) listings. This is nearly an identical mix in the number of listings by property type as in August 2021. The total months’ supply, or how long it would take to sell all listings based on trailing 12-month sales, was still historically low at 3.5 months but was one month longer than at this time in 2021 based on the slower transaction pace.
• While most price points continued to see a year-over-year decline in inventory levels, for the first time in recent memory, there were certain price points which saw a year-over-year increase. Most notably, inventory in the $7 million to $8 million price point rose from two properties listed for sale last year to 10 properties in August 2022. Listings above $10 million increased from 15 properties one year ago to 22 this year, while properties listed between $6 million and $7 million also saw a bump of three additional listings. These are by no means giant increases but could signal the beginning of a shift in overall inventory levels, particularly if transaction volume continues to remain relatively light.
• As previously mentioned, there was a noticeable difference in high-end activity for August 2022 as there were no sales above $6 million wherein there were seven transactions in 2021 and eight transactions in this price range over the five-year average. While we are aware of at least one mega-high-end ($20M+) transaction under contract, the remaining four months of the year may not pack the same punch as the Nantucket market is used to seeing in terms of higher end closings. Aside from 2021, these sales have historically been most prominent in Q4.
2022 2021 % Change
Months on Market 2.9 4.4 -35% f 5.7
INVENTORY LEVELS INCREASED IN CERTAIN PRICE POINTS
• August single-family home sales (excluding condos, co-ops & covenant properties) fell to just 10 transactions in 2022 compared to 25 in 2021 and 26 transactions over the five-year average. This naturally led to a sizable decline in dollar volume which was off 73 percent from one year ago and 63 percent over the average of the last five years. While one could anticipate that 2022 figures might pale in comparison to the exceptional sales year of 2021, August was the first month in 2022 to fall so notably behind the five-year transaction average. Cumulative sales through August 31, 2022, registered 159 transactions and $670 million, respective declines of 41 percent and 24 percent from this time last year.
(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS 2 2
AUG 22 June AugustJuly RecordsofNumber
INVENTORY
• Most of the August contracts, 51 percent, were for properties last priced between $1 million and $3 million, in line with what we saw in 2021 and even for the fiveyear average. In contrast to sales activity, August new purchase activity saw a little bump in the higher end of the market with five new contracts recorded above $9 million. Though this is significantly less than what has occurred in the last two years, it suggests there should be a little steam left in this segment of the market as we head into the fall.
Total -41% f
Transactions 159 268
Avg.
Total Sales Dollar $669,849,740 $879,732,398 -24% f $588,343,007
SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES SUMMARY
Price as % of Last Ask 97% 96% 2 d 94%
• Given the rise in Nantucket property values, it’s not particularly surprising to see that there were no home sales under $1 million in August. There was just one during August 2021 and only two during the five-year average. Whether it was due to low transaction volume or a misalignment in pricing versus buyer-perceived value, there were also far fewer transactions in each milliondollar segment between $1 million and $4 million in August even though inventory levels were largely the same as one year ago.
• In addition to lower transaction volume, the sales that took place in August 2022 were of a lower average selling value than one year ago as the highest single-family home sale was the $5.45 million sale of 76 Millbrook Road (purchased by the Nantucket Islands Land Bank). Nonetheless, all the higher end activity that took place thus far in 2022 resulted in the median home sale value rising to $3.195 million as of August 31, 2022. This is 25 percent higher than one year ago and 38 percent higher than the five-year average.
Avg.
Price as % of Original Ask 96% 93% 4 d 91%
d
• Interestingly, August 2022 was the first month of the year where single-family home inventory was effectively steady to 2021 levels rather than five to 12 percent lower as it had been in previous months. The pendulum could finally be swinging the other direction after three years of rapidly declining inventory levels. Even though inventory levels stabilized, it remained historically low and thus it only took an average of two months for properties to sell. This is the same pace as during the same time last year. Cumulatively, through the eight months of the year ending August 31, 2022, the average marketing time was 2.9 months, 1.4 months faster than in 2021. Sales discounts continued to narrow with the average sale price from the last and original asking prices narrowing to 97 percent.
MONTHLY HOME SALES DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY
Avg.
• In addition to the 10 arm’s length, single-family home transactions that took place in August, there were also two foreclosures on the books that are not included in our total figures, but which amounted to $9 million.
• Though new monthly contracts were just a fraction of those recorded in August 2020 and 2021, they saw a handsome increase from those recorded in June and July. Recorded contracts (Offers to Purchase and Purchase & Sale Contracts excluding duplicates) measured a total of 43 contracts in August 2022, down from 137 contracts in 2020 and down from 83 in August 2021, but higher than the 29 contracts noted in June and July of 2022.
188
Price as % of Assessed Value 189% 153% 37d 146%
SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES BY PRICE POINT
CONTRACT ACTIVITY NEW PURCHASE ACTIVITY FAR LIGHTER THAN 2021
Median Selling Price $3,195,000 $2,562,500 25% $2,310,750
BY JEN ALLEN
HIGH-END ACTIVITY WAS LIGHT IN AUGUST
Market Insights
Avg. Months on Market 2.9 4.4 -35% f 5.7
• August single-family home sales (excluding condos, co-ops & covenant properties) fell to just 10 transactions in 2022 compared to 25 in 2021 and 26 transactions over the five-year average. This naturally led to a sizable decline in dollar volume which was off 73 percent from one year ago and 63 percent over the average of the last five years. While one could anticipate that 2022 figures might pale in comparison to the exceptional sales year of 2021, August was the first month in 2022 to fall so notably behind the fiveyear transaction average. Cumulative sales through August 31, 2022, registered 159 transactions and $670 million, respective declines of 41 percent and 24 percent from this time last year.
Avg. Price as % of Original Ask 96% 93% 4 d 91%
AUG 22 (508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS 3
Total Sales Dollar Volume $669,849,740 $879,732,398 -24% f $588,343,007
Avg. Selling Price $4,212,891 $3,282,584 28% d $3,127,139
• In addition to lower transaction volume, the sales that took place in August 2022 were of a lower average selling value than one year ago as the highest single-family home sale was the $5.45 million sale of 76 Millbrook Road (purchased by the Nantucket Islands Land Bank). Nonetheless, all the higher end activity that took place thus far in 2022 resulted in the median home sale value rising to $3.195 million as of August 31, 2022. This is 25 percent higher than one year ago and 38 percent higher than the five-year average.
• Interestingly, August 2022 was the first month of the year where single-family home inventory was effectively steady to 2021 levels rather than five to 12 percent lower as it had been in previous months. The pendulum could finally be swinging the other direction after three years of rapidly declining inventory levels. Even though inventory levels stabilized, it remained historically low and thus it only took an average of two months for properties to sell. This is the same pace as during the same time last year. Cumulatively, through the eight months of the year ending August 31, 2022, the average marketing time was 2.9 months, 1.4 months faster than in 2021. Sales discounts continued to narrow with the average sale price from the last and original asking prices narrowing to 97 percent.
BY JEN ALLEN
Avg. Price as % of Last Ask 97% 96% 2 d 94%
Avg. Price as % of Assessed Value 189% 153% 37d 146%
Total Transactions 159 268 -41% f 188
Median Selling Price $3,195,000 $2,562,500 25% d $2,310,750
MONTHLY HOME SALES DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY 2022 2021 % Change 5-Year (2018-22)Avg
NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE
SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES SUMMARY
RecordsofNumber
AUG 22 (508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS 4
BY JEN ALLEN
Market Insights
• Given the rise in Nantucket property values, it’s not particularly surprising to see that there were no home sales under $1 million in August. There was just one during August 2021 and only two during the five-year average. Whether it was due to low transaction volume or a misalignment in pricing versus buyer-perceived value, there were also far fewer transactions in each million-dollar segment between $1 million and $4 million in August even though inventory levels were largely the same as one year ago.
• In addition to the 10 arm’s length, single-family home transactions that took place in August, there were also two foreclosures on the books that are not included in our total figures, but which amounted to $9 million.
NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE
HIGH-END ACTIVITY WAS LIGHT IN AUGUST
SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES BY PRICE POINT
• As previously mentioned, there was a noticeable difference in high-end activity for August 2022 as there were no sales above $6 million wherein there were seven transactions in 2021 and eight transactions in this price range over the five-year average. While we are aware of at least one mega-high-end ($20M+) transaction under contract, the remaining four months of the year may not pack the same punch as the Nantucket market is used to seeing in terms of higher end closings. Aside from 2021, these sales have historically been most prominent in Q4.
• Commercial property listings remained limited with just six listings as of August 31, 2022, while vacant land listings continued to be in short supply with just 12 listings. The five-year average for vacant land listings was 44.
NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE
• Though Nantucket property inventory was 66 percent lower than the most recent peak in 2019, August 2022 represented the first monthly period since that time where same period inventory levels held steady. As of August 31, 2022, there were 160 properties listed for sale including residential (142), commercial (6) and vacant land (12) listings. This is nearly an identical mix in the number of listings by property type as in August 2021. The total months’ supply, or how long it would take to sell all listings based on trailing 12-month sales, was still historically low at 3.5 months but was one month longer than at this time in 2021 based on the slower transaction pace.
Market Insights
(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS 5
INVENTORY
INVENTORY LEVELS INCREASED IN CERTAIN PRICE POINTS
BY JEN ALLEN
AUG 22
• While most price points continued to see a year-over-year decline in inventory levels, for the first time in recent memory, there were certain price points which saw a year-over-year increase. Most notably, inventory in the $7 million to $8 million price point rose from two properties listed for sale last year to 10 properties in August 2022. Listings above $10 million increased from 15 properties one year ago to 22 this year, while properties listed between $6 million and $7 million also saw a bump of three additional listings. These are by no means giant increases but could signal the beginning of a shift in overall inventory levels, particularly if transaction volume continues to remain relatively light.
June AugustJuly
• As of the time of this report, September transactions measured just above $50 million. Based on this preliminary figure, September 2022 is also likely to significantly trail previous years’ figures but preliminarily show improvement from August activity. The 2022 market is certain to hit $1 billion so it is still a very vibrant year for the island’s real estate market.
AUG 22
• Though new monthly contracts were just a fraction of those recorded in August 2020 and 2021, they saw a handsome increase from those recorded in June and July. Recorded contracts (Offers to Purchase and Purchase & Sale Contracts excluding duplicates) measured a total of 43 contracts in August 2022, down from 137 contracts in 2020 and down from 83 in August 2021, but higher than the 29 contracts noted in June and July of 2022.
(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS 6
• Most of the August contracts, 51 percent, were for properties last priced between $1 million and $3 million, in line with what we saw in 2021 and even for the five-year average. In contrast to sales activity, August new purchase activity saw a little bump in the higher end of the market with five new contracts recorded above $9 million. Though this is significantly less than what has occurred in the last two years, it suggests there should be a little steam left in this segment of the market as we head into the fall.
BY JEN ALLEN
Market Insights
NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE
CONTRACT ACTIVITY
NEW PURCHASE ACTIVITY FAR LIGHTER THAN 2021