August 2020 Nantucket Real Estate Market Insights

AUG 20

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights BY JEN ALLEN

MONTHLY SALES HIGHLIGHTS

HIGHEST SALE

QUICKEST SALE

$16,500,000

$2,175,000

56 MONOMOY ROAD MARKETED FOR [69 Days]

After trailing 2019 figures for the last eight months, cumulative Nantucket real estate dollar volume rose handsomely above last year’s figures by the end of August 2020. Transaction figures also narrowed its gap but remained off approximately nine percent from the same period one year ago. Monthly activity set an historic August record with 52 transactions totaling $173.5 million. This brought year-to-date sales through August 31, 2020 to 224 transactions totaling $623 million, a respective nine percent rise in dollar volume but nine percent decline in transaction volume from August 31, 2019. Single-family home sales saw higher price point activity than historic norms, which led to a significant rise in the 2020 average home sale value.

Additionally, new contract activity set yet another monthly record indicating that the local market is poised to set new annual records. Here are Fisher’s August Market Insights…

3 WINGSPREAD LANE MARKETED FOR [1,698 Days]

KEY MARKET STATISTICS ALL PROPERTY TYPES

FY 2020

Transactions Dollar Volume ($in 000s)

FY 2019

% CHANGE YOY

5-YEAR AVG.

224

245

–9% f

251

$623,248

$569,646

9% d

$569,477

7.1

6.4

11% d

6.8

Avg. Months on Market Sale Price to Last Ask Price

93%

93%

0%

94%

Active Listings (Aug)

353

480

-26% f

424

Months Supply of Inventory

10.5

13.1

-20% f

10.7

137

73

88% d

59

New Contracts (Aug)

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE ACTIVITY THROUGH AUG 2011–20

# of Transactions

©2020 FISHER REAL ESTATE

REVIEW

$4,500,000

50 HUMMOCK POND ROAD MARKETED FOR [1 Day]

Dollar Volume

FISHER’S

LONGEST SALE

Dollar Volume per Quarter

Q1

Q2

Q3YTD

# of Transactions

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

1

DE AUG C 16 20

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE

Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN SHALLEY

SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES SUMMARY

SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES BY PRICE

DOLLAR VOLUME AND AVERAGE VALUES JUMP WITH HIGH-END ACTIVITY

HOME SALES BETWEEN $2M-$7M INCREASE

Total Transactions Total Sales Dollar Volume

2019

5-Year Avg (2016-20)

% Change

172

165

4% d

177

$542,148,025

$419,071,216

29% d

$463,874,944

Avg. Selling Price

$3,152,023

$2,539,826

24% d

$2,627,252

Median Selling Price

$2,398,750

$1,700,000

41% d

$1,891,750

7.5

6.7

12% d

7.0

92%

94%

-1% f

93%

88%

89%

–1% f

89%

130%

126%

4% d

127%

Avg. Months on Market Avg. Price as % of Last Ask Avg. Price as % of Original Ask Avg. Price as % of Assessed Value

•

•

Single-family home sales (excluding condos, co-ops & covenant properties) measured 172 transactions totaling $542 million through August 31, 2020. This is four percent higher on a transaction basis and a whopping 29 percent higher on a dollar volume basis from the same period one year ago thanks to an upward shift in sales by price point. As compared to the fiveyear average, transaction figures were roughly level while dollar volume was 17 percent higher.

August figures alone measured $165 million in single-family home dollar volume, among the highest figures on record for any 30-day period in island history.

Higher price point sales, as we note in the next section, are the primary driver for both the increase in dollar volume and the sizable jump in the median and average home sale values.

Nantucket’s median home sale volume soared to $2.4M in August, 41 percent ahead of the 2019 value, while the average home sale value broke the $3M mark and measured $3.15M, 24 percent ahead of 2019 figures. Amidst all this activity, one might be surprised to see the average days on market lengthen and average sales discounts increase. This is largely because so much home inventory is selling, it includes several properties that have been on the market for more than two and as long as four years. These relative outliers are putting pressure on otherwise strong data points. For instance, 3 Wingspread Lane took 4.5 years to trade, dramatically longer than the 7-month average for other single-family properties. It traded 10 percent off its list price and $450,000 less than its 2007 sale price.

Number of Records

2020

•

Sub-$1 million home sales dropped to the lowest percentage of total activity within the last five years, representing just 10 percent of year-to-date transaction volume. Even sales between $1 million and $2 million, which measured 40 percent of sales in 2018 & 2019, dropped to just 30 percent of total volume as inventory dwindled and property values increased. Property sales between each million-dollar segment from $2 million to $7 million rose from 2019 figures illustrating the vibrant activity across various higher price points than has been typical in previous years. While sales between $2 million and $3 million saw the biggest increase (five percentage points of aggregate activity) compared to 2019, the high-end of the market also saw an increase of one to three percentage points. And ultra-high-end sales measured two transactions higher than in 2019, with several more in the pipeline. This year will likely prove to be one of the best years for higher end property sales our market has ever seen.

•

Year-over-year increases by price point are also consistent when comparing 2020 with the fiveyear averages. The biggest decline was the seven-percentage point drop in sub-$1 million price point sales, while the biggest increase was the three-percentage point rise in home sales between each million-dollar segment from $3 million to $7 million.

INVENTORY LEVEL OVER TIME

CONTRACT ACTIVITY

STRONG DEMAND CONTINUED TO PRESSURE SUPPLY

Number of Contracts

Number of Properties

ANOTHER RECORD-SETTING MONTH FOR NEW ACTIVITY

June

©2020 FISHER REAL ESTATE

•

•

Nantucket property inventory declined from July and measured 26 percent lower than one year ago. As of August 31, 2020, there were just 353 properties listed for sale including residential (270), commercial (19) and vacant land (64) listings. The total months’ supply, or how long it would take to sell all listings based on trailing 12-month sales, measured 10.5 months, 20 percent faster than the same period last year. Single-family home inventory measured 123 fewer listings than August 2019.

Similar to what we reported in our last month’s report, every price point aside from sub-$1 million inventory has markedly less inventory than one year ago. The $1 million to $2 million segment saw the largest year-over-year declines with just 50 properties listed (versus 85) as of August 31, 2020. The $2 million to $3 million segment is now also notably lower with 54 properties listed in August 2020 compared to 78 properties one year ago. Ultra-high-end inventory above $10 million also declined quite markedly with just 13 listings in August 2020 compared to 27 in 2019. This strong demand is clearly putting upward pressure on property values, particularly in the $1 million to $3 million range.

July

August

•

New purchase activity continued to set monthly records in August, soaring to nearly double previous year’s records. Recorded contracts (Offers to Purchase and Purchase & Sale Contracts excluding duplicates) climbed to a total of 137 contracts, up from 98 contracts during July, marking the highest monthly record for as long as we have been recording the data.

•

Most of the August contracts, 46 percent, were for properties last priced between $1 million and $3 million, relatively even to what we saw in 2019 though significantly less in the $1 million to $2 million segment due to limited supply. The $4 million to $5 million segment saw the biggest year-over-year increase, representing 9 percent of total contracts, while ultra-high-end contracts also posted a sizable increase, measuring four percent of total new contract activity (compared to 0 percent in August 2019).

•

As of the production of this report, September 2020 sales already measured $280M (by far the highest monthly dollar volume for any month on record). And with nearly $550 million in booked contracts (based on last list prices not selling prices), 2020 will be the strongest year in Nantucket real estate history. This doesn’t yet contemplate what remains to be booked in the final three months of the year.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

2

AUG 20

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE

Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES SUMMARY DOLLAR VOLUME AND AVERAGE VALUES JUMP WITH HIGH-END ACTIVITY

2020

Total Transactions

2019

% Change

5-Year Avg (2016–20)

172

165

4% d

177

$542,148,025

$419,071,216

29% d

$463,874,944

Avg. Selling Price

$3,152,023

$2,539,826

24% d

$2,627,252

Median Selling Price

$2,398,750

$1,700,000

41% d

$1,891,750

7.5

6.7

12% d

7.0

Avg. Price as % of Last Ask

92%

94%

-1% f

93%

Avg. Price as % of Original Ask

88%

89%

–1% f

89%

130%

126%

4d

127%

Total Sales Dollar Volume

Avg. Months on Market

Avg. Price as % of Assessed Value

•

Single-family home sales (excluding condos, co-ops & covenant properties) measured 172 transactions totaling $542 million through August 31, 2020. This is four percent higher on a transaction basis and a whopping 29 percent higher on a dollar volume basis from the same period one year ago thanks to an upward shift in sales by price point. As compared to the five-year average, transaction figures were roughly level while dollar volume was 17 percent higher. August figures alone measured $165 million in singlefamily home dollar volume, among the highest figures on record for any 30-day period in island history.

•

Higher price point sales, as we note in the next section, are the primary driver for both the increase in dollar volume and the sizable jump in the median and average home sale values. Nantucket’s median home sale volume soared to $2.4M in August, 41 percent ahead of the 2019 value, while the average home sale value broke the $3M mark and measured $3.15M, 24 percent ahead of 2019 figures. Amidst all this activity, one might be surprised to see the average days on market lengthen and average sales discounts increase. This is largely because so much home inventory is selling, it includes several properties that have been on the market for more than two and as long as four years. These relative outliers are putting pressure on otherwise strong data points.

For instance, 3 Wingspread Lane took 4.5 years to trade, dramatically longer than the 7-month average for other single-family properties. It traded 10 percent off its list price and $450,000 less than its 2007 sale price.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

3

Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES BY PRICE POINT HOME SALES BETWEEN $2M-$7M INCREASE

Number of Records

AUG 20

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE

•

Sub-$1 million home sales dropped to the lowest percentage of total activity within the last five years, representing just 10 percent of year-to-date transaction volume. Even sales between $1 million and $2 million, which measured 40 percent of sales in 2018 & 2019, dropped to just 30 percent of total volume as inventory dwindled and property values increased.

Property sales between each million-dollar segment from $2 million to $7 million rose from 2019 figures illustrating the vibrant activity across various higher price points than has been typical in previous years. While sales between $2 million and $3 million saw the biggest increase (five percentage points of aggregate activity) compared to 2019, the high-end of the market also saw an increase of one to three percentage points. And ultra-high-end sales measured two transactions higher than in 2019, with several more in the pipeline. This year will likely prove to be one of the best years for higher end property sales our market has ever seen.

•

Year-over-year increases by price point are also consistent when comparing 2020 with the five-year averages. The biggest decline was the seven-percentage point drop in sub-$1 million price point sales, while the biggest increase was the three-percentage point rise in home sales between each million-dollar segment from $3 million to $7 million.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

4

Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

INVENTORY LEVEL OVER TIME STRONG DEMAND CONTINUED TO PRESSURE SUPPLY

Number of Properties

AUG 20

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE

•

Nantucket property inventory declined from July and measured 26 percent lower than one year ago. As of August 31, 2020, there were just 353 properties listed for sale including residential (270), commercial (19) and vacant land (64) listings. The total months’ supply, or how long it would take to sell all listings based on trailing 12-month sales, measured 10.5 months, 20 percent faster than the same period last year. Single-family home inventory measured 123 fewer listings than August 2019.

•

Similar to what we reported in our last month’s report, every price point aside from sub-$1 million inventory has markedly less inventory than one year ago. The $1 million to $2 million segment saw the largest year-over-year declines with just 50 properties listed (versus 85) as of August 31, 2020. The $2 million to $3 million segment is now also notably lower with 54 properties listed in August 2020 compared to 78 properties one year ago. Ultra-high-end inventory above $10 million also declined quite markedly with just 13 listings in August 2020 compared to 27 in 2019. This strong demand is clearly putting upward pressure on property values, particularly in the $1 million to $3 million range.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

5

AUG 20

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE

Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

CONTRACT ACTIVITY ANOTHER RECORD-SETTING MONTH FOR NEW ACTIVITY

June

July

August

•

New purchase activity continued to set monthly records in August, soaring to nearly double previous year’s records. Recorded contracts (Offers to Purchase and Purchase & Sale Contracts excluding duplicates) climbed to a total of 137 contracts, up from 98 contracts during July, marking the highest monthly record for as long as we have been recording the data.

•

Most of the August contracts, 46 percent, were for properties last priced between $1 million and $3 million, relatively even to what we saw in 2019 though significantly less in the $1 million to $2 million segment due to limited supply. The $4 million to $5 million segment saw the biggest year-over-year increase, representing 9 percent of total contracts, while ultra-high-end contracts also posted a sizable increase, measuring four percent of total new contract activity (compared to 0 percent in August 2019).

•

As of the production of this report, September 2020 sales already measured $280M (by far the highest monthly dollar volume for any month on record). And with nearly $550 million in booked contracts (based on last list prices not selling prices), 2020 will be the strongest year in Nantucket real estate history. This doesn’t yet contemplate what remains to be booked in the final three months of the year.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

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