August Market Insights - Nantucket Real Estate

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights BY JEN ALLEN MONTHLY SALES HIGHLIGHTS

QUICKEST SALE

HIGHEST SALE

$16,000,000

$1,807,511

201 HUMMOCK POND ROAD PRIVATE SALE

KEY MARKET STATISTICS

REVIEW

ALL PROPERTY TYPES

FY 2021

Transactions

FY 2020

% CHANGE YOY

5-YEAR AVG.

93% d

282

$623,248

90% d

$700,564

7.1

-30% f

6.4

95%

93%

2d

94%

Active Listings (Aug)

161

353

-54% f

365

Months Supply of Inventory

2.3

10.5

-78% f

-

New Contracts (Aug)

83

137

-39% f

85

Dollar Volume ($in 000s)

432

224

$1,182,076 5

Avg. Months on Market Sale Price to Last Ask Price

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE ACTIVITY THROUGH AUGUST 2011–21

# of Transactions

For the first time this year, monthly dollar and transaction volume trailed prior year figures. That’s not all that surprising considering August 2020 set an all-time August record and that 2021 inventory remains incredibly lean. August 2021 activity included 40 transactions totaling $143 million, a respective decline of 23 percent and 18 percent from one year ago but higher than the five-year average for both datapoints. This brought year-to-date sales through August 31, 2021, to 432 transactions totaling $1.18 billion. These cumulative figures are nearly double what was posted one year ago and far greater than any year-to-date period the island market has ever seen. The question is whether this trajectory can continue for the remaining four months of the year. Single-family home sales were notably lower than last month as available inventory hampered sales volume. Nonetheless, we continue to see more and more private sales occurring so it’s possible the music won’t stop just yet. Here are Fisher’s August Market Insights…

$8,500,000

66 MIACOMET AVENUE MARKETED FOR [3 Days]

Dollar Volume

AUG 21

9 SHERBURNE WAY PRIVATE SALE

FISHER’S

LAND BANK PURCHASE

Dollar Volume per Quarter

Q1

Q2

Q3YTD

# of Transactions

© 2 0 2 1 F I S H E R R E A L E S TAT E

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

1

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

RESIDENTIAL SALES SUMMARY

SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES SUMMARY

SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES BY PRICE POINT

HOME SALES DECLINE DUE TO LOW INVENTORY

HOME SALES BETWEEN $3M - $4M INCREASE

2021

Total Transactions Total Sales Dollar Volume

% Change

2021

5-Year Avg (2017-21)

268

172

56% d

194

$879,732,398

$542,148,025

62% d

$553,746,597

2020

5-Year Average

Total Transactions

% of Total

Total Transactions

% of Total

Transactions

<$1M

16

6%

18

10%

26

13%

$1M–$2M

85

32%

51

30%

66

34%

Price Point

% of Total

Avg. Selling Price

$3,282,584

$3,152,023

4% d

$2,815,970

$2M–$3M

Median Selling Price

60

22%

40

23%

42

22%

$2,562,500

$2,398,750

7% d

$2,076,750

$3M–$4M

46

17%

22

13%

24

12%

4.5

7.5

-39% f

6.4

$4M–$5M

22

8%

12

7%

11

6%

Avg. Price as % of Last Ask

96%

92%

4d

94%

$5M–$6M

11

4%

12

7%

9

4%

Avg. Price as % of Original Ask

93%

88%

5d

90%

153%

130%

23d

132%

Avg. Months on Market

Avg. Price as % of Assessed Value •

AUG 21

2020

Single-family home sales (excluding condos, co-ops & covenant properties) measured 268 transactions totaling $880 million through August 31, 2021. This is 56 percent higher on a transaction basis and 62 percent higher on a dollar volume basis from the same period one year ago and nearly the same increases from the five-year average. Despite this impressive cumulative volume, August figures measured just 25 transactions totaling $120 million, lower than the 43 transactions totaling $165 million in 2020. Though the dollar volume was still significant, this is a sizable transaction volume decline likely due to limited inventory across every price point.

•

This time last year, we noted that higher price point sales led to a 41 percent year-over-year rise in the median home sale value. While higher price point sales are most certainly still occurring, the annual value increase moderated substantially. As of August 31, 2021, the median home sale value stood at $2.56 million, seven percent higher than one year ago, while the average home sale value rose four percent to $3.28 million.

•

With the sheer volume of home sales amidst a backdrop of very tight supply, average marketing times plummeted. It took an average of four and a half months for properties to sell through the first eight months of the year, three months faster than last year. Sales discounts also narrowed. The average sale price from the last asking price rose four percentage points to 96 percent while the average price from the original asking price rose five percentage points to 93 percent.

$6M–$7M

5

2%

8

5%

5

2%

$7M–$8M

7

3%

4

2%

4

2%

$8M–$9M

­­6

2%

1

1%

3

1%

$9M–$10M

2

1%

1

1%

2

1%

$10M–$20M

8

3%

1

1%

4

2%

>$20M

-

-

2

1%

2

.01%

•

Not surprisingly, home sales under $1 million dropped to the lowest percentage of total activity within the last five years, representing just six percent of year-to-date transaction volume. Sales between $1 million and $3 million held steady from both the prior year’s percentages as well as that of the fiveyear average. The price point to see the largest annual jump in transaction volume was between $3 million and $4 million. Sales in this segment represented 17 percent of all single-family home sales, a four percentage point rise from one year ago and 24 more transactions year-to-date.

•

For the first time in a few years, home sales between $5 million and $7 million declined as a percentage of overall transaction volume while sales between $7 million and $10 million saw a modest increase (the biggest increase occurred in sales between $8 million to $9 million). Mega-high-end sales ($20M+) were noticeably absent with no transactions having yet hit the books, while transactions between $10 million and $20 million registered seven more transactions than one year ago and double the activity of the five-year average. We know that the mega high-end of the market has at least a handful of transactions in the pipeline so this tally will change prior to year’s end. In fact, we expect to see new records set in this segment of the market.

FORWARD MARKET INDICATORS

INVENTORY

CONTRACT ACTIVITY

MONTH’S SUPPLY OF INVENTORY DOWN TO 2.3

NEW PURCHASES REMAINED VIBRANT

June

•

Though the seasonal nature of the island market led to a slight rise in inventory since the beginning of this year, Nantucket property inventory declined 54% from one year ago. As of August 31, 2021, there were just 161 properties listed for sale including residential (138), commercial (6) and vacant land (17) listings. The total months’ supply, or how long it would take to sell all listings based on trailing 12-month sales, measured slightly higher than two months and 8.2 months faster than the same period last year. Single-family home inventory measured 123 fewer listings than August 2020 – the exact same decline of August 2020 from August 2019.

•

For single-family homes, every single price point saw drastically lower supply from one year ago with certain price points showing just one listing available. As of August 31, 2021, there were just three homes listed for sale under $1 million and just one home for sale in both the $7 million to $8 million and $9 million to $10 million price points. Commercial properties dropped from 19 listings one year ago to just six as of last month. And vacant land saw a tremendous decline in volume, down to just 17 properties from 64 one year ago.

July

August

•

New purchase activity remained remarkably strong in August. Though monthly figures were down significantly from last year’s monstrous record, August contracts were higher than all other previous years’ levels for the same period. Recorded contracts (Offers to Purchase and Purchase & Sale Contracts excluding duplicates) measured a total of 83 contracts, down from 137 contracts one year ago but higher than the 74 contracts noted in July 2021.

•

Most of the August contracts, 48 percent, were for properties last priced between $1 million and $3 million, in line with what we saw in 2020 and even the five-year average. Notably, the ultrahigh-end of the market saw the biggest year-over-year percentage increase in contract activity, rising from four percent of August 2020 contracts to eight percent of August 2021 contracts.

•

As of the time of this report, September sales were slightly more than $100 million, far less than the $280 million for the same time one year ago. Based on this and inventory levels, it’s likely that the market will see a drop off in sales volume compared to 2020. That said, we know there will be a handful of higher end, off-market transactions that will buoy transaction volume as we head into the final four months of the year.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

2

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES SUMMARY HOME SALES DECLINE DUE TO LOW INVENTORY

2021

Total Transactions

% Change

5-Year Avg (2017-21)

268

172

56% d

194

$879,732,398

$542,148,025

62% d

$553,746,597

Avg. Selling Price

$3,282,584

$3,152,023

4% d

$2,815,970

Median Selling Price

$2,562,500

$2,398,750

7% d

$2,076,750

4.5

7.5

-39% f

6.4

Avg. Price as % of Last Ask

96%

92%

4d

94%

Avg. Price as % of Original Ask

93%

88%

5d

90%

153%

130%

23d

132%

Total Sales Dollar Volume

Avg. Months on Market

Avg. Price as % of Assessed Value

AUG 21

2020

•

Single-family home sales (excluding condos, co-ops & covenant properties) measured 268 transactions totaling $880 million through August 31, 2021. This is 56 percent higher on a transaction basis and 62 percent higher on a dollar volume basis from the same period one year ago and nearly the same increases from the five-year average. Despite this impressive cumulative volume, August figures measured just 25 transactions totaling $120 million, lower than the 43 transactions totaling $165 million in 2020. Though the dollar volume was still significant, this is a sizable transaction volume decline likely due to limited inventory across every price point.

•

This time last year, we noted that higher price point sales led to a 41 percent year-over-year rise in the median home sale value. While higher price point sales are most certainly still occurring, the annual value increase moderated substantially. As of August 31, 2021, the median home sale value stood at $2.56 million, seven percent higher than one year ago, while the average home sale value rose four percent to $3.28 million.

•

With the sheer volume of home sales amidst a backdrop of very tight supply, average marketing times plummeted. It took an average of four and a half months for properties to sell through the first eight months of the year, three months faster than last year. Sales discounts also narrowed.

The average sale price from the last asking price rose four percentage points to 96 percent while the average price from the original asking price rose five percentage points to 93 percent.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

3

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES BY PRICE POINT HOME SALES BETWEEN $3M - $4M INCREASE 2021

5-Year Average

Total Transactions

% of Total

Total Transactions

% of Total

Transactions

% of Total

<$1M

16

6%

18

10%

26

13%

$1M–$2M

85

32%

51

30%

66

34%

$2M–$3M

60

22%

40

23%

42

22%

Price Point

AUG 21

2020

$3M–$4M

46

17%

22

13%

24

12%

$4M–$5M

22

8%

12

7%

11

6%

$5M–$6M

11

4%

12

7%

9

4%

$6M–$7M

5

2%

8

5%

5

2%

$7M–$8M

7

3%

4

2%

4

2%

$8M–$9M

­­6

2%

1

1%

3

1%

$9M–$10M

2

1%

1

1%

2

1%

$10M–$20M

8

3%

1

1%

4

2%

>$20M

-

-

2

1%

2

.01%

•

Not surprisingly, home sales under $1 million dropped to the lowest percentage of total activity within the last five years, representing just six percent of year-to-date transaction volume. Sales between $1 million and $3 million held steady from both the prior year’s percentages as well as that of the five-year average. The price point to see the largest annual jump in transaction volume was between $3 million and $4 million. Sales in this segment represented 17 percent of all single-family home sales, a four percentage point rise from one year ago and 24 more transactions year-to-date.

•

For the first time in a few years, home sales between $5 million and $7 million declined as a percentage of overall transaction volume while sales between $7 million and $10 million saw a modest increase (the biggest increase occurred in sales between $8 million to $9 million). Megahigh-end sales ($20M+) were noticeably absent with no transactions having yet hit the books, while transactions between $10 million and $20 million registered seven more transactions than one year ago and double the activity of the five-year average. We know that the mega high-end of the market has at least a handful of transactions in the pipeline so this tally will change prior to year’s end. In fact, we expect to see new records set in this segment of the market.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

4

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

INVENTORY

AUG 21

MONTH’S SUPPLY OF INVENTORY DOWN TO 2.3

•

Though the seasonal nature of the island market led to a slight rise in inventory since the beginning of this year, Nantucket property inventory declined 54% from one year ago. As of August 31, 2021, there were just 161 properties listed for sale including residential (138), commercial (6) and vacant land (17) listings. The total months’ supply, or how long it would take to sell all listings based on trailing 12-month sales, measured slightly higher than two months and 8.2 months faster than the same period last year. Single-family home inventory measured 123 fewer listings than August 2020 – the exact same decline of August 2020 from August 2019.

•

For single-family homes, every single price point saw drastically lower supply from one year ago with certain price points showing just one listing available. As of August 31, 2021, there were just three homes listed for sale under $1 million and just one home for sale in both the $7 million to $8 million and $9 million to $10 million price points. Commercial properties dropped from 19 listings one year ago to just six as of last month. And vacant land saw a tremendous decline in volume, down to just 17 properties from 64 one year ago.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

5

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

CONTRACT ACTIVITY

AUG 21

NEW PURCHASES REMAINED VIBRANT

June

July

August

•

New purchase activity remained remarkably strong in August. Though monthly figures were down significantly from last year’s monstrous record, August contracts were higher than all other previous years’ levels for the same period. Recorded contracts (Offers to Purchase and Purchase & Sale Contracts excluding duplicates) measured a total of 83 contracts, down from 137 contracts one year ago but higher than the 74 contracts noted in July 2021.

•

Most of the August contracts, 48 percent, were for properties last priced between $1 million and $3 million, in line with what we saw in 2020 and even the five-year average. Notably, the ultra-high-end of the market saw the biggest year-over-year percentage increase in contract activity, rising from four percent of August 2020 contracts to eight percent of August 2021 contracts.

•

As of the time of this report, September sales were slightly more than $100 million, far less than the $280 million for the same time one year ago. Based on this and inventory levels, it’s likely that the market will see a drop off in sales volume compared to 2020. That said, we know there will be a handful of higher end, off-market transactions that will buoy transaction volume as we head into the final four months of the year.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

6