July 2020 Nantucket Real Estate Market Insights

JUL 20

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights BY JEN ALLEN

MONTHLY SALES HIGHLIGHTS

HIGHEST SALE

HIGHEST LAND SALE

$8,130,000

$16,000,000

5 POND VIEW DRIVE MARKETED FOR [1 Day]

July represented the first month since February that saw a year-over-year increase in sales volume. And the increase was remarkable at nearly two and a half times the volume witnessed during each of the months in the second quarter. Monthly sales included 44 transactions totaling $126 million through the period ending July 31, 2020, a respective 47 percent and 40 percent increase from the same period one year ago and the highest July sales volume on record. Cumulatively, for the six months ending June 31, 2020, there were 172 property transfers totaling $450 million. This narrowed the year-over-year gap to 13 percent on a transaction basis and just four percent on a dollar volume basis.

Single-family homes sales caught up to 2019 levels, while land and commercial sales lagged behind. Contract activity also set a historic record, setting the stage for a vibrant third and fourth quarter. Here are Fisher’s Market Insights for July 2020...

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KEY MARKET STATISTICS ALL PROPERTY TYPES

FY 2020

Transactions

FY 2019

% CHANGE YOY

5-YEAR AVG.

172

198

–13% f

212

$449,729

$468,580

-4% f

$470,261

6.8

6.9

–1% f

7.1

Sale Price to Last Ask Price

93%

93%

0

93%

Active Listings (July)

380

495

-23% f

433

Months Supply of Inventory

11.5

14.3

-20% f

13

98

56

75% d

59

Dollar Volume ($ in 000s) Avg. Months on Market

New Contracts (July)

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE ACTIVITY THROUGH JULY 2011–2020

# of Transactions

©2020 FISHER REAL ESTATE

REVIEW

$2,400,000

36 WASHING POND ROAD MARKETED FOR [48 Days]

Dollar Volume

FISHER’S

COMMERCIAL SALE

Dollar Volume per Quarter

Q1

Q2

Q3YTD

# of Transactions

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

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NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE

Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN SHALLEY

SFH SALES BY PRICE POINT STRONG ACTIVITY ACROSS ALL PRICE POINTS

Number of Transactions

TRANSACTION DETAIL BY PROPERTY TYPE HOME SALES STEADY, DECLINES IN COMMERCIAL & LAND TRANSACTIONS

Number of Records •

SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES: While the number of single-family home sales have been trending lower in recent years, 2020 transaction activity was able to catch up to 2019 figures in July. This is impressive not only given the pronounced slowdown earlier this year, but also due to a substantial reduction in overall home inventory. For the same 129 transactions that took place in both 2019 and 2020, cumulative 2020 dollar volume measured $377 million through July 31, 2020, 12 percent higher than one year ago. The average sales price also rose 12 percent, while average marketing times declined once again to just seven months.

•

VACANT LAND: Despite a 21 percent year-over-year increase in for-sale inventory, vacant land sales declined through the period ending July 31, 2020. Even still, total dollar volume increased from 2019 thanks to a $16 million waterfront land sale (see page 1). Higher inventory levels can be attributed to new lot availability in subdivisions like Sandpiper Place along Old South Road and Cannonbury Lane in ‘Sconset. Although the 2020 average selling price is higher due to the aforementioned ultra-highend sale, median lot sale values declined year-over-year due to a difference in land attributes such as lot size and location. Similar to single-family homes, the marketing time declined through July, as was approximately five months. We anticipate land sales will pick up momentum in the coming months based on what we are seeing in current contract activity.

•

COMMERCIAL PROPERTIES: After a successful 2019 for commercial transaction activity, sales have understandably been more muted in 2020, totaling just five transactions through July 31, 2020. Available inventory is essentially the same as it was a year ago with 15 properties being actively marketed at the end of July. Despite a reduced number of transactions, sales discounts were modest and the average marketing time was rapid (at least for the few that have sold) at just four months. Until there is more clarity around what the economic and retail landscape will look like for the foreseeable future, we anticipate activity will remain subdued.

<$1M

$1M-$2M

$2M-$4M

$4M-$7M

$7M-$10M

$10M+

•

At 34 percent of total sales, transactions between the $1 million and $2 million price point represented the biggest slice of the pie for year-to-date activity, though that figure was down approximately five percentage points from 2019. Property sales between $2 million to $3 million increased seven percentage points from last year, indicative of what appears to be a healthy boost in Nantucket property values thanks to hearty demand and limited supply. There have been several examples of re-sale of properties that traded under $2 million just a couple of years ago but which surpassed the $2 million threshold in 2020. Appreciation in this segment of the market has been further supported by the fact that the $1 million to $2 million price point has seen the biggest reduction in available inventory (see above).

•

The next largest segment as measured by the number of sales was the under $1 million price point which saw just 16 transactions through July 2020, compared to 27 for the five-year average.

Inventory in this range has been dramatically lower in recent years and remained low through July 31, 2020.

•

Sales above $5 million were generally higher than both 2019 figures and the five-year average and we expect this trend to continue based on current contract activity (see above).

FORWARD MARKET INDICATORS CONTRACT ACTIVITY

NANTUCKET PROPERTY INVENTORY

RECORD-SETTING NEW PURCHASES POINT TO $1B+ MARKET

Number of Contracts

AVAILABLE INVENTORY DECLINED, PARTICULARLY $1M - $2M

©2020 FISHER REAL ESTATE

May •

Total inventory figures remained constrained through July measuring 23 percent lower than one year ago. As of July 31, 2020, there were 380 properties listed for sale including residential, commercial and vacant land listings. The total months’ supply, or how long it would take to sell all listings based on trailing 12-month sales, measured 11.5 months, nearly six months shorter than the same period last year. Single-family home inventory measured 120 fewer listings than July 2019.

•

Where in one year ago the number of listed properties was higher in 2019 than 2018 for nearly every million-dollar pricing segment, today’s environment is quite the opposite. Every price point aside from sub-$1 million inventory has markedly less inventory than one year ago. The $1 million to $2 million segment saw the largest year-over-year declines while the $3 million to $4 million segment was also notably lower. And, for the first time in a few years, ultra-high-end inventory above $10 million is also competitive with trailing sales activity with many properties in this price point trading much more quickly than historic norms.

June

July

•

A picture paints a thousand words and the above bar graph is no exception. It illustrates the contract activity explosion that happened in July where recorded contracts (Offers to Purchase and Purchase & Sale Contracts excluding duplicates) rocketed to a total of 98, up from 57 contracts during June and the highest number on record for as long as we have been recording the data. Contract activity doubled from May to June and again from June to July, which suggests we may have a record-setting real estate year.

•

Most of the June contracts, 24 percent, were for properties last priced between $1 million and $2 million, relatively even to what we saw in 2019. The $3 million to $4 million segment saw the biggest year-over-year increase, representing 12 percent of total contracts, while high-end inventory above $5 million was also measurably higher by each million-dollar segment than it was in 2019.

•

Historically, the third quarter is the strongest quarter for new contracts so we will have to see how much steam remains in this market and what inventory is available to meet buyer demand. It certainly appears to be a solid seller’s market. And with nearly $500 million in booked contracts (based on last list prices not selling prices), 2020 could well be the strongest dollar volume year in island history.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

2

Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

TRANSACTION DETAIL BY PROPERTY TYPE HOME SALES STEADY, DECLINES IN COMMERCIAL & LAND TRANSACTIONS

Number of Transactions

J UL 20

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE

•

SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES: While the number of single-family home sales have been trending lower in recent years, 2020 transaction activity was able to catch up to 2019 figures in July. This is impressive not only given the pronounced slowdown earlier this year, but also due to a substantial reduction in overall home inventory. For the same 129 transactions that took place in both 2019 and 2020, cumulative 2020 dollar volume measured $377 million through July 31, 2020, 12 percent higher than one year ago. The average sales price also rose 12 percent, while average marketing times declined once again to just seven months.

•

VACANT LAND: Despite a 21 percent year-over-year increase in for-sale inventory, vacant land sales declined through the period ending July 31, 2020. Even still, total dollar volume increased from 2019 thanks to a $16 million waterfront land sale (see page 1). Higher inventory levels can be attributed to new lot availability in subdivisions like Sandpiper Place along Old South Road and Cannonbury Lane in ‘Sconset. Although the 2020 average selling price is higher due to the aforementioned ultra-highend sale, median lot sale values declined year-over-year due to a difference in land attributes such as lot size and location. Similar to single-family homes, the marketing time declined through July, as was approximately five months. We anticipate land sales will pick up momentum in the coming months based on what we are seeing in current contract activity.

•

•COMMERCIAL PROPERTIES: After a successful 2019 for commercial transaction activity, sales have understandably been more muted in 2020, totaling just five transactions through July 31, 2020.

Available inventory is essentially the same as it was a year ago with 15 properties being actively marketed at the end of July. Despite a reduced number of transactions, sales discounts were modest and the average marketing time was rapid (at least for the few that have sold) at just four months. Until there is more clarity around what the economic and retail landscape will look like for the foreseeable future, we anticipate activity will remain subdued.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

3

J UL 20

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE

Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES BY PRICE POINT STRONG ACTIVITY ACROSS ALL PRICE POINTS

Number of Records <$1M

$1M-$2M

$2M-$4M

$4M-$7M

$7M-$10M

$10M+

•

At 34 percent of total sales, transactions between the $1 million and $2 million price point represented the biggest slice of the pie for year-to-date activity, though that figure was down approximately five percentage points from 2019. Property sales between $2 million to $3 million increased seven percentage points from last year, indicative of what appears to be a healthy boost in Nantucket property values thanks to hearty demand and limited supply. There have been several examples of re-sale of properties that traded under $2 million just a couple of years ago but which surpassed the $2 million threshold in 2020. Appreciation in this segment of the market has been further supported by the fact that the $1 million to $2 million price point has seen the biggest reduction in available inventory (see above).

•

The next largest segment as measured by the number of sales was the under $1 million price point which saw just 16 transactions through July 2020, compared to 27 for the five-year average. Inventory in this range has been dramatically lower in recent years and remained low through July 31, 2020.

•

Sales above $5 million were generally higher than both 2019 figures and the five-year average and we expect this trend to continue based on current contract activity (see above).

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

4

J UL 20

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE

Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

NANTUCKET PROPERTY INVENTORY AVAILABLE INVENTORY DECLINED, PARTICULARLY $1M - $2M

•

Total inventory figures remained constrained through July measuring 23 percent lower than one year ago. As of July 31, 2020, there were 380 properties listed for sale including residential, commercial and vacant land listings. The total months’ supply, or how long it would take to sell all listings based on trailing 12-month sales, measured 11.5 months, nearly six months shorter than the same period last year. Single-family home inventory measured 120 fewer listings than July 2019.

•

Where in one year ago the number of listed properties was higher in 2019 than 2018 for nearly every million-dollar pricing segment, today’s environment is quite the opposite. Every price point aside from sub-$1 million inventory has markedly less inventory than one year ago. The $1 million to $2 million segment saw the largest year-over-year declines while the $3 million to $4 million segment was also notably lower. And, for the first time in a few years, ultra-high-end inventory above $10 million is also competitive with trailing sales activity with many properties in this price point trading much more quickly than historic norms.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

5

Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

CONTRACT ACTIVITY RECORD-SETTING NEW PURCHASES POINT TO $1B+ MARKET

Number of Contracts

J UL 20

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE

May

June

July

•

A picture paints a thousand words and the above bar graph is no exception. It illustrates the contract activity explosion that happened in July where recorded contracts (Offers to Purchase and Purchase & Sale Contracts excluding duplicates) rocketed to a total of 98, up from 57 contracts during June and the highest number on record for as long as we have been recording the data. Contract activity doubled from May to June and again from June to July, which suggests we may have a recordsetting real estate year.

•

Most of the June contracts, 24 percent, were for properties last priced between $1 million and $2 million, relatively even to what we saw in 2019. The $3 million to $4 million segment saw the biggest year-over-year increase, representing 12 percent of total contracts, while high-end inventory above $5 million was also measurably higher by each million-dollar segment than it was in 2019.

•

Historically, the third quarter is the strongest quarter for new contracts so we will have to see how much steam remains in this market and what inventory is available to meet buyer demand. It certainly appears to be a solid seller’s market. And with nearly $500 million in booked contracts (based on last list prices not selling prices), 2020 could well be the strongest dollar volume year in island history.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

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