NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights BY JEN ALLEN MONTHLY SALES HIGHLIGHTS
QUICKEST SALE
HIGHEST SALE
$7,888,000
$5,200,000
5 SANDY DRIVE MARKETED FOR [17 Days]
KEY MARKET STATISTICS
REVIEW
ALL PROPERTY TYPES
FY 2021
Transactions
FY 2020
% CHANGE YOY
5-YEAR AVG.
339
128
165% d
205
$881,137
$323,695
172% d
$481,559
5.3
6.3
-16% f
6.5
95%
92%
3d
94%
Active Listings (June)
171
350
-51% f
312
Months Supply of Inventory
2.4
11.0
-78% f
11.0
57
57
0%
33
Dollar Volume ($in 000s) Avg. Months on Market Sale Price to Last Ask Price
New Contracts (June)
NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE ACTIVITY THROUGH JUNE 2011–21
# of Transactions
For the first time in island history, every single month posted over $100 million in sales through June 30, 2021. April activity alone witnessed more than $250 million. Suffice it to say, the Nantucket real estate market continues on the trajectory that commenced just about 12 months ago. Cumulatively, through June 30, 2021, activity soared to 339 transactions totaling $881 million, a respective 165 percent and 172 percent increase from one year ago. Even compared to the five-year average, however, transaction volume increased by 65 percent while dollar volume surged 83 percent. At the time of this writing, there was also over $300 million in the pipeline, suggesting 2021 is on track to meet or surpass 2020 results. The looming question is whether inventory levels will be sufficient to meet at least part of the demand. Here are Fisher’s first half market insights…
$5,995,000
2 OKORWAW AVENUE MARKETED FOR [2 Days]
Dollar Volume
JUNE 21
23 BROAD STREET PRIVATELY MARKETED
FISHER’S
HIGHEST LAND SALE
Dollar Volume per Quarter
Q1
Q2
# of Transactions
© 2 0 2 1 F I S H E R R E A L E S TAT E
(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS
1
NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights
BY JEN ALLEN
1H21 RESIDENTIAL SALES ANALYSIS
RESIDENTIAL SALES ACTIVITY
VACANT LAND SALES ACTIVITY
TRANSACTION VOLUME STILL ROARING
LOT SALES ENJOYING A BANNER YEAR
2021
Total Transactions Total Sales Dollar Volume
% Change
5-Year Avg (2017-21)
209
98
113% d
138
$633,432,887
$282,798,600
124% d
$373,106,969
2021
Transactions Total Sales Dollar Volume
2020
% Change
5 Year Avg (2017–21)
69
15
360% d
34
$103,171,622
$19,237,700
436% d
$45,091,319
Avg. Selling Price
$3,030,779
$2,885,700
5% d
$2,666,697
Avg. Selling Price
$1,495,241
$1,282,513
17% d
$1,243,838
Median Selling Price
$2,537,500
$2,050,000
24% d
$1,965,100
Median Selling Price
$1,100,000
$845,750
30% d
$903,150
5.0
6.7
-25% f
6.6
6.7
5.3
25% d
8.0
95%
91%
4d
93%
97%
97%
0
95%
Avg. Months on Market Avg. Price as % of Last Ask Avg. Price as % of Original Ask Avg. Price as % of Assessed Value •
•
JUNE 21
2020
•
93%
86%
7d
89%
147%
127%
20d
130%
Single-family home sales (excluding condos, co-ops & 40B/covenant properties) continued to enjoy strong momentum through the first half of the year. Each month saw transaction volume that was nearly double the figures witnessed in 2020. As of June 30, 2021, there were 209 transactions totaling $633 million in total dollar volume. This represented a 113 percent year-over-year increase in transactions and a 124 percent increase in dollar volume thanks to higher end transaction activity. As compared to the five-year average, transaction levels were 51 percent higher while dollar volume increased 70 percent. At 33 percent of total sales, transactions between the $1M and $2M price point represented the biggest slice of the pie, just slightly lower than the distribution in 2020 and the five-year average. The price point which saw the most notable annual jump in transactions was the $3 million to $4 million segment, which represented 17 percent of sales as of June 30, 2021. This compared to just eight percent in 2020. Sales between $4 million and $5 million also saw nearly triple the first half volume of both 2020 and the five-year average. Single-family home inventory levels measured 259 properties one year ago but plummeted to just 132 properties by the end of June. With this dearth of inventory and a significant rise in transaction volume, the average marketing time shortened to a record-low of 5 months. Marketing times weren’t the only metric to see healthy improvement. The average home sale price rose five percent to $3.03 million while the median home sale value rose 24 percent (reflecting the shift into higher end price point sales from one year ago).
Avg. Months on Market Avg. Price as % of Last Ask Avg. Price as % of Original Ask
96%
93%
4d
92%
Avg. Price as % of Assessed Value
141%
145%
-5 f
133%
•
With single-family inventory difficult to come by, vacant lot sales have enjoyed a banner year with 69 land transactions totaling $103 million through June 30, 2021. This represented more than a three-fold increase from the 15 transactions totaling $19 million in 2020 and more than double the activity of the five-year average.
•
These lot sales ranged from the $280,000 sale of a 4,000 square foot lot on Larrabee Lane in the mid-island area, to a $7 million sale of a three-acre, waterfront parcel in Squam. Nearly half of the 69 lot sales that took place stem from large-parcel subdivisions created in recent years including, Cannonbury Lane (10 transactions), Sandpiper Place (8 transactions), Grey Lady Lane (6 transactions) and a few others.
•
While it is typically a little more challenging to compare annual changes in land metrics given their vastly different locations and lot sizes, we can more easily discern that the median lot sale price increase of 30 percent from 2020 is reflective of what’s happening among like-kind transactions. For example, a half-acre lot on Cannonbury Lane traded for $950,000 11 months ago, but another halfacre parcel traded for $1.25 million in June 2021. A similar narrative played out in the Grey Lady Lane neighborhood where a 5,000+ square foot lot traded for $565,000 in February 2020 but another of similar size traded for $700,000 in June 2021.
•
At just three percent, sales discounts from the list price were narrower than those of single-family homes in 2021 but overall marketing times were slightly longer at 6.7 months. Similar to single-family homes, vacant lot inventory was also dramatically lower, with just 22 properties listed for sale as of June 30, 2021. One year ago, there were 59 properties listed for sale.
FORWARD MARKET INDICATORS
CONTRACT ACTIVITY
NANTUCKET PROPERTY INVENTORY
HEALTHY NEW PURCHASE ACTIVITY IN JUNE
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
•
Despite historically low inventory, new purchase activity remained exceptionally vibrant through the first half of the year. Recorded contracts (Offers to Purchase and Purchase & Sale Contracts excluding duplicates) soared to a seasonal high of 72 contracts in April before dropping to a more moderate, but still historically robust, 57 contracts in May and June.
•
Most of the June contracts, 35 percent, were for properties last priced between $1 million and $2 million, notably higher than the 28 percent that comprised this segment in 2020. New contract activity for the $2 million to $3 million price point decreased six percentage points from one year ago, while properties last listed between $3 million and $4 million saw a modest bump. The high-end of the market ($5 million+) held roughly steady from one year ago, at least for what was noted in the MLS. We are aware of a few, off-market high-end transactions that are not reflected in the public data.
•
INVENTORY REMAINED AT HISTORIC LOWS
Historically, the third quarter is the strongest quarter for new contracts. And given the third quarter of 2020 saw exceptional contract activity from pent-up pandemic demand, it will be interesting to see how 2021 compares. So long as there is sufficient inventory to keep contract activity steady, the market should be on track to meet or surpass 2020 totals. We know that there are still several notable off-market transactions to post so you can bet we will be keeping a close eye.
•
Across every property type and price point, total inventory figures continued to trend downward, setting new records for historic lows. As of June 30, 2021, there were just 171 properties listed for sale including residential (143), commercial (6) and vacant land (22) listings. This represented a decline of 51 percent from one year ago. The total months’ supply, or how long it would take to sell all listings based on trailing 12-month sales, measured three months for residential properties, one month for vacant land and one month for commercial properties. That’s an incredible thing to write in this report…
•
Every price point, with the exception of properties priced for $8 million or above, had markedly less inventory than one year ago. The $2 million to $3 million segment saw the largest year-overyear declines, while the $4 million to $5 million price point was also considerably lower. It’s for these reasons that we continue to see many multiple-bid scenarios when new listings come to market and also why many buyer’s agents are seeking off-market listings to try and satisfy buyer demand.
(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS
2
NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights
BY JEN ALLEN
RESIDENTIAL SALES ACTIVITY TRANSACTION VOLUME STILL ROARING 2021
Total Transactions
% Change
5-Year Avg (2017-21)
209
98
113% d
138
$633,432,887
$282,798,600
124% d
$373,106,969
Avg. Selling Price
$3,030,779
$2,885,700
5% d
$2,666,697
Median Selling Price
$2,537,500
$2,050,000
24% d
$1,965,100
5.0
6.7
-25% f
6.6
Avg. Price as % of Last Ask
95%
91%
4d
93%
Avg. Price as % of Original Ask
93%
86%
7d
89%
147%
127%
20d
130%
Total Sales Dollar Volume
Avg. Months on Market
Avg. Price as % of Assessed Value
JUNE 21
2020
•
Single-family home sales (excluding condos, co-ops & 40B/covenant properties) continued to enjoy strong momentum through the first half of the year. Each month saw transaction volume that was nearly double the figures witnessed in 2020. As of June 30, 2021, there were 209 transactions totaling $633 million in total dollar volume. This represented a 113 percent year-over-year increase in transactions and a 124 percent increase in dollar volume thanks to higher end transaction activity. As compared to the five-year average, transaction levels were 51 percent higher while dollar volume increased 70 percent.
•
At 33 percent of total sales, transactions between the $1M and $2M price point represented the biggest slice of the pie, just slightly lower than the distribution in 2020 and the five-year average. The price point which saw the most notable annual jump in transactions was the $3 million to $4 million segment, which represented 17 percent of sales as of June 30, 2021. This compared to just eight percent in 2020. Sales between $4 million and $5 million also saw nearly triple the first half volume of both 2020 and the five-year average.
•
Single-family home inventory levels measured 259 properties one year ago but plummeted to just 132 properties by the end of June. With this dearth of inventory and a significant rise in transaction volume, the average marketing time shortened to a record-low of five months. Marketing times weren’t the only metric to see healthy improvement. The average home sale price rose five percent to $3.03 million while the median home sale value rose 24 percent (reflecting the shift into higher end price point sales from one year ago).
(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS
3
NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights
BY JEN ALLEN
VACANT LAND SALES ACTIVITY LOT SALES ENJOYING A BANNER YEAR
2021
Transactions
% Change
5 Year Avg (2017–21)
69
15
360% d
34
$103,171,622
$19,237,700
436% d
$45,091,319
Avg. Selling Price
$1,495,241
$1,282,513
17% d
$1,243,838
Median Selling Price
$1,100,000
$845,750
30% d
$903,150
6.7
5.3
25% d
8.0
Avg. Price as % of Last Ask
97%
97%
0
95%
Avg. Price as % of Original Ask
96%
93%
4d
92%
Avg. Price as % of Assessed Value
141%
145%
-5 f
133%
Total Sales Dollar Volume
Avg. Months on Market
JUNE 21
2020
•
With single-family inventory difficult to come by, vacant lot sales have enjoyed a banner year with 69 land transactions totaling $103 million through June 30, 2021. This represented more than a three-fold increase from the 15 transactions totaling $19 million in 2020 and more than double the activity of the five-year average.
•
These lot sales ranged from the $280,000 sale of a 4,000 square foot lot on Larrabee Lane in the mid-island area, to a $7 million sale of a three-acre, waterfront parcel in Squam. Nearly half of the 69 lot sales that took place stem from large-parcel subdivisions created in recent years including, Cannonbury Lane (10 transactions), Sandpiper Place (8 transactions), Grey Lady Lane (6 transactions) and a few others.
•
While it is typically a little more challenging to compare annual changes in land metrics given their vastly different locations and lot sizes, we can more easily discern that the median lot sale price increase of 30 percent from 2020 is reflective of what’s happening among like-kind transactions. For example, a half-acre lot on Cannonbury Lane traded for $950,000 11 months ago, but another half-acre parcel traded for $1.25 million in June 2021. A similar narrative played out in the Grey Lady Lane neighborhood where a 5,000+ square foot lot traded for $565,000 in February 2020 but another of similar size traded for $700,000 in June 2021.
•
At just three percent, sales discounts from the list price were narrower than those of single-family homes in 2021 but overall marketing times were slightly longer at 6.7 months. Similar to single-family homes, vacant lot inventory was also dramatically lower, with just 22 properties listed for sale as of June 30, 2021. One year ago, there were 59 properties listed for sale.
(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS
4
NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights
BY JEN ALLEN
CONTRACT ACTIVITY
JUNE 21
HEALTHY NEW PURCHASE ACTIVITY IN JUNE
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
•
Despite historically low inventory, new purchase activity remained exceptionally vibrant through the first half of the year. Recorded contracts (Offers to Purchase and Purchase & Sale Contracts excluding duplicates) soared to a seasonal high of 72 contracts in April before dropping to a more moderate, but still historically robust, 57 contracts in May and June.
•
Most of the June contracts, 35 percent, were for properties last priced between $1 million and $2 million, notably higher than the 28 percent that comprised this segment in 2020. New contract activity for the $2 million to $3 million price point decreased six percentage points from one year ago, while properties last listed between $3 million and $4 million saw a modest bump. The high-end of the market ($5 million+) held roughly steady from one year ago, at least for what was noted in the MLS. We are aware of a few, offmarket high-end transactions that are not reflected in the public data.
•
Historically, the third quarter is the strongest quarter for new contracts. And given the third quarter of 2020 saw exceptional contract activity from pent-up pandemic demand, it will be interesting to see how 2021 compares. So long as there is sufficient inventory to keep contract activity steady, the market should be on track to meet or surpass 2020 totals. We know that there are still several notable off-market transactions to post so you can bet we will be keeping a close eye.
(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS
5
NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights
BY JEN ALLEN
NANTUCKET PROPERTY INVENTORY
JUNE 21
INVENTORY REMAINED AT HISTORIC LOWS
•
Across every property type and price point, total inventory figures continued to trend downward, setting new records for historic lows. As of June 30, 2021, there were just 171 properties listed for sale including residential (143), commercial (6) and vacant land (22) listings. This represented a decline of 51 percent from one year ago. The total months’ supply, or how long it would take to sell all listings based on trailing 12-month sales, measured three months for residential properties, one month for vacant land and one month for commercial properties. That’s an incredible thing to write in this report…
•
Every price point, with the exception of properties priced for $8 million or above, had markedly less inventory than one year ago. The $2 million to $3 million segment saw the largest year-over-year declines, while the $4 million to $5 million price point was also considerably lower. It’s for these reasons that we continue to see many multiple-bid scenarios when new listings come to market and also why many buyer’s agents are seeking off-market listings to try and satisfy buyer demand.
(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS
6