June Market Insights - Nantucket Real Estate

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights BY JEN ALLEN MONTHLY SALES HIGHLIGHTS

QUICKEST SALE

HIGHEST SALE

$10,950,000

$4,300,000

1 JAMES STREET MARKETED FOR [9 Days]

$3,000,000

8 BRANT POINT ROAD MARKETED FOR [2 Days]

FISHER’S

95 MIACOMET AVENUE PRIVATELY MARKETED

KEY MARKET STATISTICS

REVIEW

ALL PROPERTY TYPES

FY 2022

Transactions

Though 2022 sales volume has

Dollar Volume ($ in 000s)

struggled thus to keep pace with

Avg. Months on Market

the monstrous momentum of 2021, still enjoying one of its best years yet. Through June 30, 2022, activity tallied 207 transactions totaling $692 million, a respective 39 percent and 22

% CHANGE YOY

5-YEAR AVG.

207

341

-39% f

210

$692,600

$884,391

-22% f

$544,364

2.8

5.2

-46% f

5.7

97%

95%

2d

94%

Sale Price to Last Ask Price

the Nantucket real estate market is

FY 2021

Active Listings (June)

143

171

-16% f

301

Months Supply of Inventory

2.9

2.4

17% d

8.6

New Contracts (June)

29

57

-49% f

42

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE ACTIVITY

percent decline from one year ago, but

THROUGH JUNE 2011–22

the third highest transaction volume and second highest dollar volume for any similar period in history.

Market-wide appreciation in property strength in the high-end - are the driving factors for such healthy dollar volume. If inventory levels weren’t at

# of Transactions

values - compounded by continued

Dollar Volume

JUNE 22

HIGHEST LAND SALE

historic lows (144 properties at the time of this writing), one must wonder if transaction volume would be substantially higher. Here are Fisher’s first half market insights…

Dollar Volume per Quarter

Q1

Q2

# of Transactions

© 2 0 2 2 F I S H E R R E A L E S TAT E

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

1

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights RESIDENTIAL SALES ACTIVITY

VACANT LAND SALES ACTIVITY

DOLLAR VOLUME PROPELLED BY HIGH-END SALES 2022

Total Transactions Total Sales Dollar Volume Avg. Selling Price Median Selling Price

JUNE 22

% Change

5 Year Avg (2018–22)

211

-39% f

137

-15% f

$415,113,698

$4,183,991

$3,017,474

39% d

$3,011,194

$2,915,000

$2,500,000

17% d

$2,178,000

3.2

4.9

-35% f

6.0

97%

95%

2d

94%

Avg. Price as % of Last Ask Avg. Price as % of Original Ask

96%

96%

0

93%

Avg. Price as % of Assessed Value

152%

141%

12 d

139%

Avg. Price as % of Assessed Value

96%

92%

4d

91%

183%

147%

36d

142%

June single-family home sales (excluding condos, co-ops & non-market-rate transactions) fell by 40 percent from June 2021 but were balanced with the five-year average at 26 properties for the 30-day period. Cumulatively, through June 30, 2022, there were 129 transactions totaling $540 million in total dollar volume. This figure represented a 40 percent year-over-year decrease in transactions but just a 15 percent reduction in dollar volume thanks to higher end transaction activity.

At 22 percent of total sales, transactions between the $1M and $2M price point still represented the biggest slice of the pie but were notably lower than in 2021 and the five-year average - both of which measured 34 percent. The price points which saw the most notable annual jump were the $5 million to $6 million segment, which represented 9 percent of sales as of June 30, 2022, and the $10 million to $20 million segment, which rose five percentage points to total six percent of all transactions.

The five-year average of June single-family home inventory is 244 properties. As of June 30th, 2022, only 116 single-family properties were listed for sale. Given that buyer demand remains relatively strong, the average marketing time continued to shorten, and fell to a record-low of three months. The average home sale price rose a whopping 39 percent to $4.2 million (largely influenced by all the high-end sales) while the median home sale value rose 17 percent to $2.9 million.

Total Sales Dollar Volume

44

69

-36% f

38

$98,350,494

$103,171,622

-5% f

$61,075,681

Avg. Selling Price

$2,235,239

$1,495,241

49% d

$1,523,352

Median Selling Price

$1,414,440

$1,100,000

29% d

$1,039,038

1.5

6.7

-77% f

5.5

97%

97%

0

96%

Avg. Months on Market

•

Although 2021 will likely mark one of the best years for vacant lot sales, this segment of the market is still enjoying a solid run with 44 land transactions totaling $98 million through June 30, 2022. Both figures are handsomely above the five-year average, and, despite a 36 percent yearover-year decline in transaction volume, dollar volume was only off five percent.

•

Lot sales ranged from the $335,000 sale of a 5,000 square foot lot off Old South Road Lane in the mid-island area to a $18.875 million sale of a 1.25-acre, waterfront parcel along the Cliff. This time last year, nearly half of the vacant land sales that took place stemmed from the subdivision of larger parcels. Subdivision activity continued to contribute to sales activity in 2022, but to a much smaller degree at approximately 30 percent of total transaction activity.

•

While it is typically a little more challenging to compare annual changes in land metrics given their vastly different locations and lot sizes, there is one transaction that sheds light on appreciation values over the last three years. A private sale at 85 Vestal Street for $2.05 million abutting two other similarly sized lots that traded for $1.262 million each three years ago. This sale suggests the annual appreciation rate of raw land may be near 18 percent (or higher if there were no associated commissions due to the private nature of the most recent sale). While this is only one data point, it is useful in attempting to understand the real appreciation underlying sizable increases in median and average lot sale values.

•

At just three percent, sales discounts from the list price were the same as those for single-family homes but marketing times were even more rapid at just 1.5 months. Similar to single-family homes, vacant lot inventory was dramatically lower with just 9 properties listed for sale as of June 30, 2022.

CONTRACT ACTIVITY

NANTUCKET PROPERTY INVENTORY

NEW PURCHASE CONTRACTS MODERATED

INVENTORY AT HISTORIC LOWS

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

•

The above chart shows that new purchase activity tempered back to more “normal” levels during the first half of the year. Recorded contracts (Offers to Purchase and Purchase & Sale Contracts excluding duplicates) dropped back down to the 80’s in both the first and second quarter. June contracts measured 29, down from 57 one year ago.

•

Most of the June contracts, 21 percent, were for properties last priced between $1 million and $2 million, notably lower than the 35 percent that comprised this segment in 2021. New contract activity for the $5 million to $6 million price point increased 13 percentage points from one year ago, while properties last listed between $4 million and $5 million also saw a sizable bump. The high-end of the market ($5 million+) held roughly steady from one year ago, at least for what was noted in the MLS. We are aware of a couple, off-market high-end transactions that are not yet reflected in the public data.

•

Transactions

2021

$636,686,936

Avg. Price as % of Original Ask

•

2022

129

Avg. Months on Market

•

% Change

SOLID YEAR FOR LOT SALES 5-Year Avg (2018-22)

$539,734,849

Avg. Price as % of Last Ask

•

2021

BY JEN ALLEN

Historically, the third quarter is the strongest quarter for new contracts. So long as there is sufficient inventory to keep contract activity steady, the market should be on track to meet the lauded $1 billion mark.

•

Across every property type and price point, total inventory figures continued to trend downward, setting new records for historic lows. As of June 30, 2022, there were just 143 properties listed for sale including residential (128), commercial (6) and vacant land (9) listings. This represented a decline of 16 percent from one year ago and 50 percent from the five-year average. The total months’ supply - or how long it would take to sell all listings based on trailing 12-month sales measured five months for residential properties, one month for vacant land and three months for commercial properties.

•

Every price point, except for properties priced for $5 million or above, had markedly less inventory than one year ago. The $2 million to $4 million segment saw the largest year-over-year declines while the $1 million to $2 million price point was also considerably lower.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

2

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

RESIDENTIAL SALES ACTIVITY DOLLAR VOLUME PROPELLED BY HIGH-END SALES 2022

Total Transactions

% Change

5-Year Avg (2018-22)

129

211

-39% f

137

$539,734,849

$636,686,936

-15% f

$415,113,698

$4,183,991

$3,017,474

39% d

$3,011,194

$2,915,000

$2,500,000

17% d

$2,178,000

3.2

4.9

-35% f

6.0

Avg. Price as % of Last Ask

97%

95%

2d

94%

Avg. Price as % of Original Ask

96%

92%

4d

91%

183%

147%

36d

142%

Total Sales Dollar Volume Avg. Selling Price Median Selling Price Avg. Months on Market

JUNE 22

2021

Avg. Price as % of Assessed Value

•

June single-family home sales (excluding condos, co-ops & non-market-rate transactions) fell by 40 percent from June 2021 but were balanced with the five-year average at 26 properties for the 30-day period. Cumulatively, through June 30, 2022, there were 129 transactions totaling $540 million in total dollar volume. This figure represented a 40 percent year-over-year decrease in transactions but just a 15 percent reduction in dollar volume thanks to higher-end transaction activity.

•

At 22 percent of total sales, transactions between the $1M and $2M price point still represented the biggest slice of the pie but were notably lower than in 2021 and the five-year average - both of which measured 34 percent. The price points which saw the most notable annual jump were the $5 million to $6 million segment, which represented 9 percent of sales as of June 30, 2022, and the $10 million to $20 million segment, which rose five percentage points to total six percent of all transactions.

•

The five-year average of June single-family home inventory is 244 properties. As of June 30th, 2022, only 116 single-family properties were listed for sale. Given that buyer demand remains relatively strong, the average marketing time continued to shorten, and fell to a record-low of three months. The average home sale price rose a whopping 39 percent to $4.2 million (largely influenced by all the high-end sales) while the median home sale value rose 17 percent to $2.9 million.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

3

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

VACANT LAND SALES ACTIVITY SOLID YEAR FOR LOT SALES 2022

Transactions

% Change

5 Year Avg (2018–22)

44

69

-36% f

38

$98,350,494

$103,171,622

-5% f

$61,075,681

Avg. Selling Price

$2,235,239

$1,495,241

49% d

$1,523,352

Median Selling Price

$1,414,440

$1,100,000

29% d

$1,039,038

1.5

6.7

-77% f

5.5

Avg. Price as % of Last Ask

97%

97%

0

96%

Avg. Price as % of Original Ask

96%

96%

0

93%

Avg. Price as % of Assessed Value

152%

141%

12 d

139%

Total Sales Dollar Volume

Avg. Months on Market

JUNE 22

2021

•

Although 2021 will likely mark one of the best years for vacant lot sales, this segment of the market is still enjoying a solid run with 44 land transactions totaling $98 million through June 30, 2022. Both figures are handsomely above the five-year average, and despite a 36 percent year-over-year decline in transaction volume, dollar volume was only off five percent.

•

Lot sales ranged from the $335,000 sale of a 5,000 square foot lot off Old South Road Lane in the mid-island area, to a $18.875 million sale of a 1.25-acre, waterfront parcel along the Cliff. This time last year, nearly half of the vacant land sales that took place stemmed from the subdivision of larger parcels. Subdivision activity continued to contribute to sales activity in 2022, but to a much smaller degree at approximately 30 percent of total transaction activity.

•

While it is typically a little more challenging to compare annual changes in land metrics given their vastly different locations and lot sizes, there is one transaction that sheds light on appreciation values over the last three years. A private sale at 85 Vestal Street for $2.05 million abutting two other similarly sized lots that traded for $1.262 million each three years ago. This sale suggests the annual appreciation rate of raw land may be near 18 percent (or higher if there were no associated commissions due to the private nature of the most recent sale). While this is only one data point, it is useful in attempting to understand the real appreciation underlying sizable increases in median and average lot sale values.

•

At just three percent, sales discounts from the list price were the same as those for single-family homes but marketing times were even more rapid at just 1.5 months. Similar to single-family homes, vacant lot inventory was dramatically lower with just 9 properties listed for sale as of June 30, 2022.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

4

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

CONTRACT ACTIVITY

JUNE 22

NEW PURCHASE CONTRACTS MODERATED

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

•

The above chart shows that new purchase activity tempered back to more “normal” levels during the first half of the year. Recorded contracts (Offers to Purchase and Purchase & Sale Contracts excluding duplicates) dropped back down to the 80’s in both the first and second quarter. June contracts measured 29, down from 57 one year ago.

•

Most of the June contracts, 21 percent, were for properties last priced between $1 million and $2 million, notably lower than the 35 percent that comprised this segment in 2021. New contract activity for the $5 million to $6 million price point increased 13 percentage points from one year ago, while properties last listed between $4 million and $5 million also saw a sizable bump. The high-end of the market ($5 million+) held roughly steady from one year ago, at least for what was noted in the MLS. We are aware of a couple off-market high-end transactions that are not yet reflected in the public data.

•

Historically, the third quarter is the strongest quarter for new contracts. So long as there is sufficient inventory to keep contract activity steady, the market should be on track to meet the lauded $1 billion mark.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

5

NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights

BY JEN ALLEN

NANTUCKET PROPERTY INVENTORY

JUNE 22

INVENTORY AT HISTORIC LOWS

•

Across every property type and price point, total inventory figures continued to trend downward, setting new records for historic lows. As of June 30, 2022, there were just 143 properties listed for sale including residential (128), commercial (6) and vacant land (9) listings. This represented a decline of 16 percent from one year ago and 50 percent from the five-year average. The total months’ supply - or how long it would take to sell all listings based on trailing 12-month sales measured five months for residential properties, one month for vacant land and three months for commercial properties.

•

Every price point, except for properties priced for $5 million or above, had markedly less inventory than one year ago. The $2 million to $4 million segment saw the largest year-over-year declines while the $1 million to $2 million price point was also considerably lower.

(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

6