Opinion

How 2020 has changed us

BY NICK JOY

At the start of a new year, looking back becomes a national pastime. For the year just passed, of all years, there is so much to review. When 2019 slipped quietly into 2020 there was already a seed of destruction growing under the soil and in March it surfaced and grew incredibly quickly. Like pancreas disease in salmon, by the time the symptoms showed the problem was too advanced to do more than attempt to mitigate the worst of it.

Having said that, the world’s politicians have made an absolute meal of it. The speed with which civil rights – from freedom of movement to the right to see family – have been removed was astounding.

It is dangerous to criticise people faced with this sort of radical change, especially when the basis for the changes is so obscure and illogical. How could anyone work out how to react when the governments of the world revised all of the things they had said were central to their philosophies?

The challenges to our industry from health to market supply remained. Whilst I would love to say that our critics became more inclined towards finding commonality under such pressure, they did not. Nor, sadly, did government become more aware of the huge pressures that they are placing on food production. Neither seem to understand that food will be one of the most important issues of the next decades.

Diet and food supply will become a very serious political issue in the near future. Aquaculture globally and in the UK specifically will be central to satisfying demand for a healthy nutritious diet and so the delivery of a sensible sustainable development strategy is crucial. Please note that I do not say that this will happen in 2021. I don’t believe in fairies at the bottom of my garden!

The most lasting and significant changes brought on by the advent of Covid-19 will be those that affect our markets both globally and at home, most obviously those created by people staying home rather than eating out. A decrease of spend in restaurants and the like of around 58% this year, equating to £44bn, will bring a whole load of new trends with it. Takeaway and home cooking have become a far larger part of the average home’s eating habit, and over £11bn more has been spent on retail food purchases this year.

Some companies adapted extremely fast. The Haar restaurant in St Andrews decided to develop and sell luxury seafood boxes. It has been a rip-roaring success and I take my hat off to them. This sort of thinking, allied to reacting fast, is exactly the sort of initiative our industry needs. We have a hidebound distribution system with far too many people taking too much margin between our producers and the consumer

Of course the difficulty is knowing which of these trends will continue and thrive and which will wither and die. Large numbers of consumers have said categorically that they will go back to visiting restaurants regularly when restrictions end but will they really? So many people I talk with still really fear the virus and far worse, fear mixing with other people. Also, once you have presented a meal you have cooked yourself to a bunch of people and been told how delicious it is (not an experience I have had), you may be keen to hear it again.

So many people have tried to forecast what will happen, often because they want to extrapolate their own view. Apparently more

“Diet and food supply will become a very serious political issue in the near future”

than 400,000 people turned vegan this year but the other side is more rarely quoted: more than 200,000 gave up being vegan. So I will predict something which I hope is less about promulgating my own view but seems possible if farfetched. It is likely that there will be an effect on globalisation not just know about your locale and its risks, but also because during this period people have become much more aware of their environmental impact. How we address that one will also be interesting!

Air freight has already become much harder and more expensive to use but will that mean that ultra low temperature freezing will become a greater part of food supply? After all it has 17 times less carbon footprint and the product tastes and has the texture of fresh.

Writing ahead of the festive break, I predict the British public will eat too much at Christmas and drink too much at New Year.

I intend to fulfil my part of that forecast with enthusiasm. I can do no better than to wish you all the same! FF