2 minute read
The future of the workplace
The Economic Future of the Central Activity Zone (CAZ) Phase 1: Office use trends and the CAZ ecosystem Report to the Greater London Authority (GLA)
Home working interfaces will develop, but a step-change is unlikely in the next decade
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The CAZ has a high proportion of highly skilled workers, which is expected to increase
Automation and other technological advancements will put jobs across the UK at risk, which has been amplified by COVID-19
Although London is less at risk, automation will still decrease demand for jobs by 16.1%
London is well-placed due to wellestablished and fast growing sectors in tech, head office services, consultancies
The future of remote working
It is expected that working from home will be more common following the pandemic with many workers taking the opportunity to have more leisure time, prompting a better work-life balance for Londoners. Around three-quarters of businesses across the UK have stated that they will continue with remote working after COVID-19. However, working from home can be stressful and contribute to burnout and a lack of motivation for some (Arup, 2020c). Businesses will still want to attract people to test ideas, drive innovation and connect with employees and the wider workforce. They will need to put in efforts to attract them (Arup, 2020b). And there will still be a need for in-person meetings (see Chapter 10).
Home working hardware and software
Arup Foresight’s predictions (Arup Foresight, 2017) show the Top 20 emerging technologies which may disrupt their market in the next decades. Among others, they suggest that the next 10 years will see the spreading commercialisation of Bluetooth 5.0 and 5G mobile internet (both provide more efficient and reliable mobile connectivity), blockchain (fraud-proof network) and mixed reality (integration of digital information into a real-world environment, allowing live interaction and feedback). Taken together, these technologies suggest that home working will continue becoming more convenient. They also appear evolutionary rather than revolutionary - with the exception of mixed reality, which would have to become advanced, widely adopted and culturally embedded to offer a stepchange in how we work in the next decade. Whilst lag times may reduce, all of this points to a development of existing home working practises, rather than a full change, which in turn points towards in-person meetings still offering an advantage.
Autonomous and electrified vehicles
Electric vehicles are likely to become standard over the next decade. These could have a mixed impact on the CAZ, whilst helping with air quality, if left unmanaged they could lead to a rise in congestion (as the operating costs are much lower than traditionally powered vehicles). Opinions differ on the maturity of autonomous vehicles, and whether fully self-driven cars will appear on our roads in the 2020s, 2030s or beyond. If they are to be widely deployed, they may lead to a further increase in CAZ congestion (as they will effectively lower the price of a taxi and remove the need for parking spaces for private vehicles). They may also offer a step-up to out-of-town business parks, and other suburban office locations as they allow passengers to work whilst travelling to the office.
The Economic Future of the Central Activity Zone (CAZ) Phase 1: Office use trends and the CAZ ecosystem Report to the Greater London Authority (GLA)
